Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2024 (Updated) - Hyperactive

This is an updated version of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as all models, including myself forecast a hyperactive season this year as a moderate to strong La Ninas is likely with a record warm Atlantic basin. So, in this update, I'll give you the latest on how many named storms are Penn. State University predicting.
Video Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:25 - Record Warm Atlantic Basin
2:24 - Very High Upper Ocean Heat Content
6:24 - Comparing Busy Seasons
9:35 - Latest Climate Models
16:38 - My Forecast Is Out
19:00 - What I'm Planning To Do
23.51 - Outro/Promotion
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Disclaimer: All of my videos and live streams are for entertainment purposes only, and to discuss raw operational model guidance and its ensembles, I'm also comparing models too. So please seek official sources like the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, or The Weather Channel for more detailed and accurate information.
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[@euroschmau]

This is going to be one hell of a summer for the US. Hurricanes, heat, civil unrest, economic collapse, etc. Makes me wonder if we'll make it to Christmas...

[@JayaLove]

Always during election year!

[@AndrewTaylor-ru2ho]

Spend money on junk going broke.

[@user-pw1xf1rk4l]

Not good news at all for those of us who live in Florida!

[@cct2557]

If you vote for Trump, then I would be worried

[@user-tn8ls5dg1u]

Glad you are planning on providing live stream in the Caribbean. We in Dominican Republic don’t get enough time sensitive info . Thanks so much 🙏🏼✨

[@oshiondagreat2306]

I live in Jamaica. Considering we may have a couple tornadic hurricanes this year I'm doing everything I can't to set up my parents home to be storm proof. These storms have the ability to blow down concrete walls when they hit small islands. May God have mercy on us all😢❤

[@CheshamAcademy]

May God Bless you, hope your family stays' safe this season.

[@user-ju2su4eo2c]

Built a house in Cape Coral 1979 - Never got hit hard (tree damage - Yes), never structural all these years, even last year with Ian. Sold the property last November not because of the fear of the weather, in a Tropical Climate _ Expect that. However the drop in property prices, the cost of or the cancellation of Insurance, rising Taxes. Paradise Lost.

[@RestorationDream]

Hi David! I just found your channel today and subbed. This is the first weather outlook I have been able to understand. Thank you so much! I live in Mississippi in the Southern part and am really concerned about this outlook. Im glad I found your channel!

[@WeatherForce2024]

You are so awesome restoration. I’m glad you were able to find my KZbin channel very useful and easy to understand. 😊❤

[@Duckswag87]

Should be an interesting year

[@colleenpriest7838]

Hey David. Like what features you will be doing during this hurricane season. Very good update as well. Curious, will you also be showing camera footage,if available, on an approaching storm before,during landfall,etc? Again, I like how you will be going with this; very nice. Thanks.

[@CrazyWeatherDude]

The North Atlantic is becoming the West Pacific in terms of activity it seems.

[@unitgamex2972]

And the west pac has gone down

[@kennoybrown3946]

Yea NOAA said that the on average storms in the WPAC are decreasing

[@finlandball1939]

*Me a New Jerseyan hoping we get a landfall so my area actually gets measurable rain this summer and so I can storm chase*

[@michaelguerrero3684]

It is very, very concerning about how ugly this atlantic hurricane season can get. Alarming on how ingredients are coming together. If June, July ends up well above average in terms of named storm this could spell trouble. 2005 had 2 major hurricane in July that felt like September. Won't surprise me if major hurricane forms in June-July. Hasn't happened in a while. Very alarming on what I am seeing. Penn State forecast is red flag!!!

[@antresia.9723]

I think NYC is going to get a tropical storm this year. Probably on July or August.

[@melissawilcox5285]

Thanks, David! I live in the Midwest so hurricanes usually don’t bother me, unless one decides to blow through the states😬 I enjoyed listening to this update.

[@josephdunhardt3834]

One of the precipitation models looks like a boxing kangaroo that could be concerning because kangaroos are mean sometimes 😂

[@JayaLove]

Well… we booked a 7 night cruise from Galveston to western Caribbean (Roatan, Costa Maya and Cozumel) Aug 25-Sept 1! 😅

[@windelross2450]

Thank you David,we're so lucky to have forecasters with clairvoyance to give us accurate forecast of what will happen in the future,it's a powerful gift.

[@WeatherForce2024]

Thank you so much

[@FloridaHippie]

Congrats David 😃 me and my mom started watching you after a recommendation from Diamond at Oppenheimer Ranch and you’ve come so far!!! Keep up the good work 😘 MsVibe ✨

[@WeatherForce2024]

Welcome aboard! And thank you for subscribing

[@DJ-il8iv]

A Big one - on the way

[@CherylMinskey]

Thank you for your service providing this information. As a resident of Florida, I will be watching closely. Subscribed.

[@WeatherForce2024]

You’re very welcome, Cheryl. I am excited to track hurricane season. Can’t wait. 😊

[@youthanasia8767]

Just because they say x amount of storms doesn’t mean they all hit land. Everyone needs to pump the brakes and take it one storm at a time. I know so many here in Florida especially ft Myers area that now have hurricane ptsd. They see stuff like this and talking about moving back up north or further inland.

[@brandonbrady3]

Latent heat of vaporization is the amount of energy required to change water from a liquid to a vapor or gaseous state. Essentially hurricanes extract 590-600 calories from 1 gram of ocean water surface. Yes but it has to be above 80 degrees for it to be realized

[@briankelly7563]

Wait for the NOAA outlook.

[@briankelly7563]

Keep a eye on before the start of season. That Sahara dust in 2020 was very strong but there was a lot of storms before

[@chuckharrel8272]

Just give Trump a Sharpie. He will keep us safe with a map redraw!

[@DaneClement-fn7kt]

Everyone on gulf states neeeds be prepared be ready

[@jacobmontgomery3998]

Sooooo don’t go anywhere in the Caribbean or Florida for vacation at the end of July? This is what I need to know

[@briankelly7563]

La Nina is developing and possibly earlier than expected

[@alemdevp2048]

When wil the NOAA outlook come out? Is there any date?

[@WeatherForce2024]

i'm hoping by mid May

[@brandonbrady3]

Everyone keep an Eye on the SAL!! This will cool the SSTs and DRY out the mid levels from 700-500 mb.

[@WeatherForce2024]

Well, based on latest model guidance, the Saharan air layer is weakening dramatically and does not look to return for another 10 to 15 days perhaps.

[@jacattack0092]

3 weeks ago i dreamt of a massive hurricane in NC by the coast area sometime in June. Only to see hurricanes happening two days after my dream. Then on 4/26 i woke up from an earthquake dream, felt real as i thought my room was shaking.

[@terrellharris1865]

I have a vacation planned last week of sept/first week of Oct. Should I cancel it now?

[@ahumanbeing993]

No not needed just look if it’s sage to travel when times comes

[@JayaLove]

Get travel insurance!

[@eruditeroach7099]

After hearing about the record number of storms predicted for this upcoming season, hearing that we'll have "maybe a few fish storms" is truly worrying, and likely not inaccurate either.

[@singerbilly9960]

Is mobile Alabama and Pensacola florida going to get anything

[@RestorationDream]

Well, there is no way to know just now.

[@darnes12]

you list me at I'm excited.

[@mattybuchys1528]

2024 it’s really going to try to break the record set in 2020. This could be as hyperactive as the 2020 season. If you put like a landfall forecast, I would assume about 5 to 7 US impacts. If the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is bad I wonder what the 2054 hurricane season could look like in a warming planet.

[@sethcourtemanche5738]

That's not that bad actually as long we don't see anything higher than a category 3

[@jeremiahjoseph2325]

@sethcourtemanche5738 Thats about the same as 2020

[@JohnnyYTwestbrook]

hey brother it’s me johnny your long time friend it’s been quite sometime since we last communicated i been watching your videos and just to let you know on April 18th 2024 I lost my uncle to kidney and heart failure it’s been rather tough on me. I’ve lost 3 people in 2 years 2022 stepdad 2023 mom 2024 my uncle mike anyways getting this aside do you think Louisiana will get hit by hurricanes this year?

[@WeatherForce2024]

I’m sorry to hear that Johnny. I lost my grandpa last year on October 26, 2023. But anyways, this year Johnny is going to be bad how bad that is to be determined but all we know for now is that there could be at least more than 24 named storms

[@hisdaughter7814]

Excellent David… You know I’ll be watching for your videos as I have been subbed for several years now and love your work… Cynthia form Fort Myers Florida

[@frankmoore159]

hi dave

[@briankelly7563]

I expect it to extremely active this year

[@JmguyN8]

I’ve seen them forecast a busy season and many times the hurricanes are fish killers hopefully it’s just a repeat of that 😊

[@tobyradenbaugh8965]

Dont forget highy toxic wildfire smoke from the igniting Canadian boreal forests - inundating the entire lower 48

[@eliinthewolverinestate6729]

In 1990, the IPCC First Assessment Report acknowledged that "Human-made aerosols, from sulphur emitted largely in fossil fuel combustion can modify clouds and this may act to lower temperatures", while "a decrease in emissions of sulphur might be expected to increase global temperatures". Since the 1980s, a decrease in air pollution has led to a partial reversal of the dimming trend, sometimes referred to as global brightening. This global brightening had contributed to the acceleration of global warming which began in the 1990s. Cutting more SO2 means larger storms and hotter oceans. Starting in the 1980s, the reduction in global dimming has contributed to higher global temperatures. Hot extremes accelerated as global dimming abated. It has been estimated that since the mid-1990s, peak daily temperatures in northeast Asia and hottest days of the year in Western Europe would have been substantially less hot if aerosol concentrations had stayed the same as before.

[@AnConfused_Editor]

Nononono.. Im getting 2017 vibes for sxm 😢

[@brandonbrady3]

By Florida SST are going to stick to below average. I believe most storms will stay south of Florida

[@WeatherForce2024]

Nope. They arealready 2° to 4° Celsius above average

[@yams3954]

So what you’re saying is I should visit New Orleans now before it sinks into the ocean?

[@thegoober8797]

Based

[@cropduster123]

Nah that place was ruined from Katrina. It's never recovered. New Orleans before Katrina and after are two different cities.

[@Newbomb_Turks_Punch]

@@cropduster123I live here, I agree

[@keishabarham7948]

I Philadelphia

[@rummy98]

After the terrible 2005 season they gave some crazy inflated 2006 prediction and were off by like 90%. They even considered no longer giving the predictions but they persist. They also update the initial prediction randomly throughout the season for some reason. What is the point of the prediction if you don't stick with it. It's kind of like making a Vegas bet and being able to change it after the cards show.

[@JonathanGarcia-nv2wl]

At least the gulf isn’t warm

[@charlesNYMets]

Yet…

[@markuswaldron9305]

This data scares me cuz I believe a major hurricane 🌀 will pass through the southern windward islands thus year and few other small TS.

[@markuswaldron9305]

Hey David grest to have you back 👋🏾

[@user-es8pm9pw2d]

What about Southeast Florida?

[@Gateway10]

We’re screwed

[@matthewc994]

@@Gateway10 YUP!

[@faziadookhie]

Will Trinidad be at risk?

[@WeatherForce2024]

If there’s any low riders of a tropical system, then there is definitely a risk which seems a bit higher this year

[@sethcourtemanche5738]

New england is overdue for a hurricane land strike

[@S0nyToprano]

Im excited. Powerful hurricanes are so cool.

[@v.i.butterfly4779]

Totally agree… I’m from the Caribbean, moved to the US 13 years ago and every hurricane season I get soo damn excited when there’s a massive storm coming, wishing I was there to experience it again but become sad to see the aftermath. Excited because everyone comes together to help each other get prepared for impending storms. So I get you. Don’t worry you’re not abnormal 😊.

[@disharimiles1645]

Yeah powerful hurricanes are good enough for me to be out of school for a while

[@Howrider65]

Forget this stuff they can't even tell where they are going 80 miles offshore. That big one on the east coast they said at first, it's staying offshore the next day it was going to hit Tampa the next day Orlando it shot across the whole state slowing down but it hit us on the east coast the guy down the street lost his whole screened in patio it flew into the trees lots of debris it took 2 weeks to clean up this area. I think the only thing that should be living in Florida are gators and snakes which I have 2 rat snakes they are the best they keep the mice away.

[@NeoGrifforzer]

Kermit and Miss Piggy, @David Schlotthauer

[@BAMADUCKER78]

I thought everyone reported that last year would be the worst in history. There is a story by this dude named Aesop. Read it sometime, it's called "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".

[@davidkelly4210]

Nobody (credible) was expecting a busy season last year. el Nino and dust ensured that. Last year was actually MORE active than forecast. If you're watching doomsayers instead of Mets, that's on you.

[@Trahzy]

Literally nobody said that lol.

[@shyecjj]

Yea... just keep watching, I promise this year won't disappoint

[@Newbomb_Turks_Punch]

Yeah. Here comes rate hike for insurance companies

[@Gateway10]

How old are you David?

[@WeatherForce2024]

Why?

[@thegoober8797]

😂 opsec

[@briankelly5970]

Wait for May 15th NOAA official outlook

[@WeatherForce2024]

That’s why I’m waiting to do my final Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast for May 21st. 😊

[@briankelly5970]

@@WeatherForce2024 they update that outlook in the month of August and I am waiting for that one

[@TornadoStray]

Where was it announced that they'd release their official outlook on the 15th? I can't find anything online. 😅

[@briankelly5970]

@@TornadoStray they don't have to Announce when they do the outlook and they have been doing that way for quite some time. They also do a updated outlook in August(Atlantic only).

[@sethcourtemanche5738]

22-33 named storms!?! You gotta be kidding me

[@justinwilson3922]

It keeps getting higher and higher one model is saying 27 to 39 NS and the middle is 33NS

[@susanjones1925]

What is that dark blue blob near Greenland? Something to do with all the seas circulations? The end is near.

[@andylang4432]

I sure hope that the whole state of texas gets a tropical sorm or hurricane to sit over for few days. We still need the rain badly

[@johnnykrax]

But the grounds so dry that it actually can't soak in the water does increase damages. It's better for rain over time more frequently

[@MichaelFort-jr3dp]

I live in central coastal NC near Emerald Isle. I'm pretty sure were going to get a hurricane this year, maybe a major hurricane, and multiple hurricanes.....back to back hurricanes. The climate is changing and weather is becoming more intense as years progress. This year is also supposed to be another warm year, maybe the warmest on record. I know the oceans are heating up and the La-Nina is coming back which are two ingredients needed to make for a lot of hurricanes. However, that High Pressure that sits out over the middle of the Atlantic called the bermuda high will determine where the majority of these storms go with a good many out to sea and labeled "fish storms", but I suspect a good few of these storms will ravage Florida, the Gulf coast states, and maybe NC and the rest of the Atlantic Seaboard.....maybe NY, NJ, New England this year for they haven't been hit since 2012 during storm sandy...22 years and that's about the average amount of time for a storm to hit that area.....they usually take a strike there from a hurricane once ever 18-26 years on Average where as here in NC its once ever 3-7 years on average.

[@alexeatonexploresamerica5511]

Hurricane Dennis hurricane Michael Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Ivan hurricane Sally hurricane Ida

[@wpbarchitect1800]

The use of the specifically human concept 'should' has no meaning re: natural phenomena, which simply is. Ditto 'normal'. What you're referring to is average, which is a collection and division of human measurement of particular datum over an infinitesimal period of earth's planetary history. It can certainly be a useful albeit highly limited (due to the tiny data set vs the actual history) predictive metric, and in meteorology primarily over a very short time frame (it's an applied science that's a far too complex system still relatively little understood to have much useful predictive use beyond the very short term (3-4 weeks, which is why that's the length of the longest term wx models, which become less predictive the further out--even in that limited period--they go.) 'Normal' has become a cheat synonym used by illiterate broadcast meteorologists in an attempt to anthropomorphize nature to make it more interesting/relatable to people, as most can only think of things in human behavioral terms. It's scientifically meaningless to apply abstract terms judgement of human behavior to the natural world. It just IS. That's what separates pre-modern, pre-scientific ages (everything was thought of in human terms, i.e. if a volcano erupted is was a sign of nature (sometimes called 'gods') being angry/meting out punishment etc.) from the present. Although in fairness, we're regressing to those perspectives, of superstitious primitives, rapidly (often intentionally so, hidden in deceptive 'science-y' sounding language for purposes of various financial/business scams, accrual of power, etc.) FWIW.

[@JamesJohn-og8or]

I don’t subscribe to “ expert predictions “. The southeast coast was supposed to be hit last summer. It wasn’t. I’m not living my life in fear or worry. My plan is simple. Close up the condo and get out of its way. Every year it’s the same song and dance. Ocean water hotter than normal. Yeah and? That’s not the sole factor for steering a hurricane. I’m just going to enjoy the summer and I’ll worry about it when it’s coming at me. I think of Dorian which was coming right at Ft. Lauderdale. It stalled and then turned north. You can’t predict actual direction even when the storm looks like it’s coming. They predicted a category five which was catastrophic damage exactly where I live. We didn’t even get a drop of rain. Am I grateful for that; absolutely but I’m not going to live my life in fear over something that may or may not happen

[@josephshahady8308]

Best to be prepared than scared

[@JamesJohn-og8or]

@@josephshahady8308 these doom and gloom posts don’t do anything other than predict what “might” happen not “will” happen. When you live on a peninsula jutting out into the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Caribbean and Atlantic, you get a plan of action in place. However predictions are not fact. They foretell possible scenarios that might happen but haven’t materialized and may never happen. Inform not frighten.

[@pm5206]

Last year was not expected to be impactful because of El Nino. Parts of Florida got impacted by Idalia and a few tropical storms causing some flooding in the SE. This season is going to be busy. How much impact? To be determined. It’s already looking like the SE US will be impacted. Bahamas and Florida are at a very high risk.

[@JamesJohn-og8or]

@@pm5206 Florida and the Bahamas are always at very high risk so what’s the different this year from any other year? There have been El Niño years where nothing happened. There have been La Niña years where nothing happened so somebody tell me what’s the doom and gloom for this year that is so significantly different from any other year. Nothing!

[@JamesJohn-og8or]

@@pm5206 as I said before Florida and the Bahamas are always a very high risk. There’s nothing new here.

[@richardmatthews3522]

This year is going to be like no other year that we've had. We are directly under the cosmic microwave pulse coming from the blackhole in the middle of our galaxy. I hope everyone stays as safe as they can possibly be. This year if you are given a warning for any type of weather, its best to evacuate the era or go into your under ground shelter. The US government should be talking to the people about this but i had to find out from all the other countries bc the US government and senates can not do their job. I always thought our government would prepare us about something so life changing. Thank you United Nations, Europe, and China for informing your people of the cataclysims that are happening this year, United States of America, get your head out of your butt and do your job! The rest of the worlds watching you in disbelief bc you are not giving your people freedom of anything right now and you are making the situation bad for the entire world. Once again, thank you United Nations, Europe, and China for informing your people so they could inform us and let us know about the potential dangers taking place right now. 90% of the USA still doesnt know because we have so much on our plate that we can't even take a breath with out being stepped all over by our gop. Siberia, hopefully you are all okay and taking extra precaution bc youre the one being hit the worse right now. My prayers go out to all of you who have been going through these cataclysims on a daily basis. Hopefully, we will get through this together when everyone finds out the things only 35% of the world knows.

[@eliinthewolverinestate6729]

I blame the climate alarmist for making it hotter and worse storms. They are not making it better. Evidence shows global warming is mostly cause by reduced air particulates and reduced SO2 while Tonga volcano added 10% more moisture. Then they cut SO2 out of ship track emissions. Which the SO2 would of helped with condensation. And cloud cover cooling the ocean. Making storms and hurricanes less sever.

[@windyaft]

All that assessment, and you make no mention of the Saharan dust, or how it may influence storms, or how it has influenced storms in the past.

[@WeatherForce2024]

I will bring that into my next seasonal forecast

[@georgelamb8074]

69 years since 1955… The modern record of sea temperatures… Sun is estimated to be around 4.6 billion years… Science needs more drama… Kinda like cow bell..:

[@TravelAnthony]

In what right does Penn State have to do hurricane predictions? They are not even an ocean state. I trust CSU more

[@alexeatonexploresamerica5511]

I'm tired of people hiking things up🤨🤨

[@Gateway10]

Hypeing

[@Gateway10]

😊

[@JayTee0007]

Will the water be as warm as a fart that is squeezed out of my cheeks? 🤔

[@user-rr6xv9jz8h]

Yes, but the water won't be nearly as wet and funky.

[@sharonsmith4328]

Trump2024

[@philmabarak5421]

Slogan of the cowards

[@chuckharrel8272]

Trump with a Sharpie!

[@australiasfirstmate1556]

BEST POSTING ON THIS SITE ALL WEEK! Lord, please, Trump 2024!

[@lucasc3651]

At this time last year, your community was losing its collective mind over the hot water temps in the Caribbean etc.. Idalia was the worst US-landfall hurricane. The hype machine has to stop.