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In this video, Alex is going through the trading execution of our AXIA Elite Trader Demetris Mavrommatis, on a Bank of England Rate Decision that took place on Thursday, 17 September 2020.
Background:
In the fight against the pandemic, we have seen central banks around the world taking unprecedented measures to provide monetary support and stimulate their economies. Interest rate cuts and the launch of massive bond-buying programs (Quantitative Easing) have been the main monetary policy tools that have been used by central banks in this crisis in order to provide financial support. For the last few months, Bank of England has been debating whether to implement a Negative Rate policy. Although some BOE members have expressed their potential support for cutting rates below zero, the majority of the MPC officials, including the BOE governor Bailey, have been communicating that although negative rates are in BOE’s policy toolbox, this is not the right time to be implementing them.
12pm Rate Decision announcement:
As the BOE Rate Decision was released at midday UK time, the BOE said that it will “engage with regulators on how to implement negative rates”. This statement was taken by the market as a signal that the BOE is moving closer to cutting rates below zero for the first time in its history.
Market Reaction:
Although initially markets were a bit slow to react, as the comment got wider attention, Short Sterling (UK short-end bonds) futures started catching a bid, indicating market participants started bringing forward their expectations for negative rates. Gilts (long-end bonds) followed STIRS higher while GBP started selling off.
Elite trader Execution:
As the comments drop, our trader starts executing by feeding a few clips in the Gilts, while also selling the Cable (GBP). As the volume in these markets pick up and as the velocity and order flow dynamics shift and become more aggressive, he adds to his positions. He buys over 300 Gilts, sells 180 Cable and buys 360 lots in the Short Sterling. Although after a first move up in Gilts the market stalls for some time, he decides to stick with his trades and hold the majority of his size for a second leg-up. By holding on to his positions he manages to double his P&L for the day.
Edge Spectrum on Macro News Events:
An edge is cultivated and refined over many years and a trader should always strive to keep improving his edge if he has the ambition to become a top performer. As Alex explains at the end of the stream, when it comes to trading fundamental and global macro news events, a trader will be faced with many different kinds of news events that produce different market reactions. Some will be simple and straightforward and the market will react as expected, and most traders with basic understanding and basic skills will be able to profit out of them. But on other occasions, the news will be much more subtle and nuanced and will require a much higher level of skill for a trader to be able to execute as efficiently as possible. In these instances, it won’t be enough for a trader to just understand the macro landscape and what drives market pricing. A top trader will have to search for clues in the price action, in the order flow dynamics, in the key correlations between other markets. In other words, it will be a much harder process to profit in these scenarios, and a trader who wishes to maximise his PnL will need to have a full artillery of skill-sets.
00:00 - Intro
02:09 - Background - BOE Stance on Negative Rates
05:19 - 12pm Rate Decision announcement
12:03 - Market Reaction - 1min charts
15:04 - Live Trading - Rate Decision
18:51 - Live Trading - Negative Rates Commentary
24:12 - Live Trading - Second leg of the move
29:53 - Key Takeaways & Lessons
32:37 - Edge Spectrum on Macro News Events
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Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis - Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood - Co-Founder Head of Strategy
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