Trading the ECB Press Conference [February 2022]

In this video, our co-founder and head of Strategy, Alex Haywood, is going through the trading execution of AXIA Elite trader Demetris Mavrommatis, over the ECB Rate Decision on 3 February 2022.
While the ECB statement from its first policy review of the year largely reiterated the December guidance, President Lagarde spooked the European bond markets as she expressed her concerns on inflation and opened the door to 2022 rate hikes. This marked a significant hawkish shift in ECB policy, which had remained dovish over the course of last year, even as other big central banks had started to prepare the markets for rate hikes.
As a result of this policy shift, German and peripheral bonds collapsed, led by the short-end of the curve as traders brought forward their expectations for rate hikes.
As Lagarde started dropping the hawkish bombshells in her press conference, Demetris executed big short positions in the Bobl (German 5-year), the Bund (German 10-year) and the BTP (Italian 10-year). As those markets sold off aggressively on the back of the ECB’s hawkish pivot, he achieved a multiple 6-figure P&L.
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00:00 - Intro
02:06 - Market Context
04:32 - Scenario Analysis
06:31 - ECB's Inflation Assessment
08:00 - ECB's Risk Assessment: Risks to Inflation tilted to the upside
17:06 - Lagarde Q&A: Unanimous concern about Inflation data
20:50 - Lagarde Q&A: Rate Increase possible in 2022
26:17 - Key Takeaways & Summary
#DayTrading #Trading #ECB
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Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis - Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood - Co-Founder Head of Strategy

[@AxiaFutures]

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[@benmaxinm]

Dem is a fuck*ing legend! I was there, still lacking the skill to act fast on Lagard comments, but knew someone got in early. Now I know who :)

[@Josh-Jones]

Alex, when you watch the Q&A, what source/feed are you using to minimize latency/delay so that you hear her comments in real time? Great video, thanks!

[@AxiaFutures]

Hi Josh. Good question. Either direct "dial in" if possible or agency website. In combination with Refinitiv/Bloomberg/Twitter. We try to get as close as possible to the source, but not always it is ideal.

[@vinceriflesso2883]

Great video Alex, thanks a lot to share it. One of the main aspects of risk management is not only the downside risk but also the profit taking. in this specific trade did he use levels in order to take profits and close the all positions, or some other criteriay? On the Bund for example when he decided to cut off the all position?

[@AxiaFutures]

Hi Vince, thanks for the comment. So as we have seen in previous videos of his execution, his trading style is very dynamic and his entries/exits are based on a combination of order flow, fundamental news and technical levels. Once he is in a trade, and he receives a positive price response, he will try and run the trade until he feels he’s got the most out of the trade. Many times, these types of unexpected news-triggered moves finish with a big fast liquidation that takes out big technical levels, which is probably what he was after in this case.

[@noahjackson7626]

very cool!

[@izzuddinmnasir4884]

does it mean "buy call" on EUR USD?

[@slowinvestgrowthfast4060]

what is the size of his account??

[@AxiaFutures]

Unfortunately we don't share trading account sizes in absolute terms, but his trades are appropriately sized to his account size so that no single bad trade, or sequence of bad trades would not wipe this trader account.

[@andreasavgerinou8428]

Size lord !

[@xopcapital9986]

Good vid. Please use a green mouse cursor next time. Both of you are using black.

[@danielarce3256]

Dont you use jigsaw? Why use Sierra ladder if jigsaw is more deeper?

[@SpideySteve]

The ladder is TT, not Sierra. Most Axia traders use TT.