BCE Stock Analysis, Bell Canada Dividend Stock Valuation

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[@CalBru]

One of the better analysis I've seen - thank you. Alternatives comments (new facts?) No Black Friday/Cyber Monday price wars in Canada (so revenues aren't declining), Ziply is in a low competitive market area with USD revenues/NI, with declining CDN$ forecast over the next few years, they have other sports franchise businesses to sell in Montreal, markets have discounted BCE already, debt coverage ratio isn't unreasonable, interest rates are dropping. 10.5% yield they say they are keeping in place for next year, with plans to review (and perhaps increase - though at 10.5% I'm happy), Staff cuts add $250 million FCF on an annualized basis. Using those fact, it is a good BUY - I just put myself in.

[@herokorai8346]

Looking forward to more Canadian stock analysis

[@Value-Investing]

Will be, but we need some kind of shock first

[@roberttaylor3594]

@@Value-Investing do AW. Just for fun!

[@vicgill1980]

Thank you for covering stocks all over the world! A rare KZbinr!

[@lazerhawk2192]

Hi sven, other negative factors that weren't included in the video are qubecor gets to use rogers infrastructure at discount for the next 10 years which means bells plans are 30% higher than market rate and A lot of rural users are switching to starlink. Given the regulatory environment im not sure if there is a moat

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for this valuable comment!

[@blazepowder66]

thank you sven, always makes me so happy seeing home brands being covered ☺️ . The only thing id say is that canada is under extreme interest rate pressure due to our mortgage structure and upcoming renewals. On top of our job mix. If we do not continue to cut rapidly, then our "economy" will be a firework show of debt haha.

[@Value-Investing]

it is like that for every economy, debt is high everywhere!

[@blazepowder66]

@Value-Investing I know but mortages on average get new rates every 5 years here. So I assume that puts us ahead of the curve in stress testing rates on our economy. Maybe I am wrong?

[@kqh123]

​It's does. I work in mortgages in Canada. A lot of low rate mortgages are coming up for renewal in 2025 and 2026. They were taken at 1.5%-2.5% and now rates are 4%-5%@@blazepowder66

[@conroy119]

@@blazepowder66 compared to the US where people have locked in low rates for 30 years, absolutely.

[@smugdug]

@@Value-Investing So if all of your neighbours were in extreme debt then that means its ok for you to be in extreme debt too? lol

[@JoshLauwer]

I had a assignment in March 2023 about stock pitching. I was pitching Canadian telecommunications companies. Convinced myself that bell and rogers were good stocks to buy. I got a really good mark on the assignment, but these stock haven’t done anything in the almost 2 years…

[@swparsons]

Real life vs academics 😅

[@jsk8rulz]

The gov also forced BCE to open their network of Fiber to smaller player creating more competition. Same with Mobile, 2 new players on Mobile breaking the long term oligopoly

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@swparsons]

My sept bell bill was billed a week earlier than usual. For example usually my service for a given month was billed on about the 5th day of the next month. Eg. It should have been 5 Oct. instead they backed it up 7 days so I was billed for sept service on sept 28. I was also billed on 5 sept for August service. Thought this was odd, were they trying to juice the q3 numbers with this double billing in sept ?

[@kqh123]

I was wondering what was going on with this company. Thank you for covering it!

[@Value-Investing]

Happy to help!

[@Supe063]

In Canada though, it's still in the telecom oligopoly. Essentially too big to fail. I've sat on BCE stock for at least 15 years, adding bits every now and then. Rode a few waves. Nothing quite like the current one. The crystal ball says probably a lot of question marks for the next three years as long as interest rates don't go higher than they are now. Hopefully their sales strategy can be aggressive enough for more US expansion.

[@steveg1054]

Bell/BCE just increased prices this week. Got the notification yesterday my monthly bill will increase $5.50/month CDN starting February.

[@Value-Investing]

that is business

[@SwissCheese112]

@@steveg1054 thats the plan for the coming year by all the telecomms. Increasing prices.

[@efraim4613]

Sven, could you analyze BAX. They cut their dividend and they are significantly down. Thank you.

[@Value-Investing]

not my cup of tea:-(

[@efraim4613]

@Value-Investing Thank you Sir for your reply. I value your input, and Ive bought some of your previous recommendations, and I'm happy with them.

[@dimitribulatov7937]

Hey Sven, in which part of your coordinate system would you see Linde these days?

[@e.a.p3174]

I just bought more, in the short term this is not doing anything, but if you hold it for long term you get nice dividend, and I'm sure changes will be made by management.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@TheMarsCydonia]

Changes from management this year was laying 10%+ of its workforce.

[@parkerbohnn]

No short squeeze on the horizon the short sellers will push the stock lower. The direction of the world stock markets is lower over at least the next decade and Bell fits the picture as an epic short sale. A company totally mismanaged from inception. Trump hasn't put any tariffs on any counties yet as he takes office this January so long term rates won't fall in the meantime.

[@egeb]

This aged beautifully

[@frankinfante791]

Have been buying. This company will not be going away. Great time to buy and get paid a 10% dividend.

[@moroccovideos2167]

Bad decision. Their revenue is in decline and theyre facing debt crisis since a while now

[@frankinfante791]

@ time will tell. I may be wrong but I don’t believe so. In the short term it may look like a bad decision, but I’m in it for the long term. Still a great long term investment.

[@robertsparling2313]

There won't be a 10% dividend for long

[@smugdug]

@@frankinfante791 They're a shrinking company with no growth prospects that just suspended their dividend. You're going to be holding the bag for a loooooong time.

[@egeb]

This aged beautifully 😆

[@Wanderhirsch]

That's a great explanation

[@Duuj1]

A while ago I did look up few companies in that field . I noticed alot of debt . Also i noticed alot of families and communities in rural canada are makkng the switch to Starlink .

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@SwissCheese112]

@@Duuj1 utilities always carry a lot of debt. Nature of the beast

[@shakeypudding6563]

Bought 200 shares today. BCE has more than enough FCF to cover the dividend. They said at earnings they are NOT cutting the dividend but will not be increasing it.

[@jsk8rulz]

they are NOT - for now

[@jsk8rulz]

I'm not saying it's not a buy but do you know about the new competition on fiber and mobile that could create more reduction on revenues and it become ugly really quickly

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@conroy119]

what's your source on this? Looks to me that their FCF payout ratio for the divvy is about 130%.

[@samspade1841]

They always say they won’t cut the dividend. Are you trying to convince yourself?

[@bernteinar906]

it will most likely be cut, just like vodafone. but i am still looking at both

[@parkerbohnn]

One would be playing the stock market in general from the short side as its the most overvalued in all of history. If long term rates stay above 4 percent in America Bell will have to cut their dividend as well Trudeau is cutting back on immigration in 2025. This is the time frame when you want to find all those short sales not long buys. I've been short Bell stock since it was $63.25 Canadian.

[@baljeetsehmi4855]

At these level you think maybe OTPP or someone else might make a run to but BCE. OTPP tried in 2007 ?

[@Value-Investing]

if somebody has the money, might be a possiblity!

[@VanillaAttila]

Can we get a good Canadian stock pick?

[@Value-Investing]

Perhaps the whole market is a bit frothy

[@VanillaAttila]

@Value-Investing so where to put money in a tsfa?

[@jsk8rulz]

@@VanillaAttila banks

[@VanillaAttila]

@jsk8rulz hard to trust them after seeing what TD did. Also I have a friend at BMO that says their software is garbage and often crashes . Maybe RBC could be ok but they seem like a dinosaur too. Crypto and block chain is taking over banking.

[@erichong4786]

​@@VanillaAttilabanks, shop stock, and some ass.

[@1984Mike]

I wonder, next year when the government changes, if the pension funds try to take this private again

[@urluberlu2777]

Hi Sven, love your in-depth analysis and your quadrant at the end of each of your clips! Would love to see you answer for each stock you analyse: 1. If you dont have this stock, is this a good time to buy it? and if so, should it be bought for short-term or long-term investing? 2. If you already have this stock, should it be kept for a while? or is this a good time to sell it or should we wait a bit? The reason I'm asking is I've had some BCE stock for years now (over 15 years) and of course it's now higher than what I bought it for, but I cant say it's been great to me. Now they have that high dividend that make it OK, but their debt is crazy high (40B$!). I could probably keep investing stocks for the next 15-20 years, what would you do?

[@Robert-ir7ue]

Any chance to discuss Albemarle and Celanese?

[@Value-Investing]

will come one day, can't promise now

[@nitabennington]

Could I request you doing a deep dive on Telus?

[@michaelshaw7834]

I’m just wondering if you also factored in the revenue from Ziply Fiber?

[@Value-Investing]

when you make an acquisition like that, miraculous profits are not to be expected, they will be happy to cover interest costs

[@luigigetsu]

Can someone remind me when was the last time we watched in this channel a great business with no declining fundamentals at less than 10PE? I remember META got to 10 but that was the only one, maybe BABA? All these businesses with single digit PE are mostly dumpsterfires with dying business models.

[@Value-Investing]

here you have a few: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pX_EhZmbqM2rZ7s

[@jayke1405]

What about Boing

[@kuckol]

Thank you. Please analyze Liberty Global.

[@Value-Investing]

that is a covered one on my research platform, so not for KZbin :-(

[@nachonYT]

Hi Sven! The stock is still going down and now the dividend yield is 11%. Is it a good buy now?

[@lazerhawk2192]

If you don't understand how money is flowing through the financials then it's incredibly risky.

[@davidwashington4282]

Please analyze Total Energies!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting!

[@sandysamith7218]

Thank you Sven for your analysis. Unfortunately, it’s in my portfolio 😢

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@rachelschaafsma3558]

Hello Sven!!! Big fan and subscriber since day one!!! Keep up the good work and energy💪🏼 I am a car Guy, can you please do a Polestar Automotive analyse?? I tryed But it dont get it. Greetz from the netherlands (Limburg)

[@relax-ie3mp]

Good financial review. Do a business analysis review.

[@haientong9365]

I think the market overacted and i am buying more. Of course the company has debt issue, but the business is not going away. Bell has top tire assets and i believe it's not bad move selling cash nutrual business and buying a cash flow positive business.

[@SwissCheese112]

@@haientong9365 you make a good point. The only positive rn is there infrastructure.

[@parkerbohnn]

Anyone playing the stock would wait for the first dividend cut and then buy the stock. Trump hasn't taken office yet so longer term interest rates are unlikely to fall in the meantime.

[@SwissCheese112]

@ bce is a Canadian stock not American

[@olya4787]

Thank you Sven! What would you recommend for investors who already hold BCE stock: hold it? I mean what other choice we have, it put a dent in my RRSP portfolio ((. I guess we have to see how interest rate will play out so its a waiting game for me for another 1-2 years....

[@Value-Investing]

hard to predict where the stock price will go, it also depends on what are your other opportunities you have

[@parkerbohnn]

Watch the long term interest rates as short term interest rate cuts are meaningless when it comes to dividends.

[@joka5345]

BCE, I'm long term. I need some dividend stock

[@Ian-of9oi]

I can almost guarantee a dividend cut. They could have raised the dividend by a tenth of a cent and kept their growth streak. They did not. Why did they do that? Because they plan to cut the dividend soon. Probably next quarter. Have to wait and see if my prediction is correct.

[@FrankQC100]

It is what it is.

[@Serge888]

I am canadian. I bought.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@parkerbohnn]

Always wait for the first dividend cut before buying that's when the short sellers will cover some of their positions. Buy the stock the second they cut their dividend before the short sellers have a chance to buyback stock.

[@baffinsansterre]

BCE Debt credit status recently downgraded to one notch above junk.

[@jonathankrimer]

Not sure whmcomments are tuened off, but selling mlse is insane. Who sells the maple leafs? They make money and are terrible.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@souslesbombes]

I've been looking at it for a week since they tanked and chose to pass. I agree with your conclusions. I also fear how new wireless technologies will compete against fiber, I'm not sure fiber has such a solid moat. I bought some Power Corp on the dip after earnings. A Power Corp analysis from Sven, I'd watch. All the best.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing and for the suggestion!

[@Sam-d8o6q]

High interest rates don’t bode well for telecom stocks…bce is probably the worst telecom Canadian stock though as well

[@goodsir7298]

Pre video prediction. Stock is bad dividend is really unsustainable, stay away

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@us98]

I dont know why everyone's worried about dividend cuts.... The stock is dirt cheap. Just buy more and make up the dividend cut if there will be one....some of yall should stop investing for dividends and just do the s&p.....

[@SwissCheese112]

Telus a better buy imo. Cheaper, better growth, more diversification, good current investment in unfashionable, growing revenues, still growing dividend at 7.5% rn. Bell looks like a sinking ship.

[@parkerbohnn]

Telus got upgraded about 2 weeks ago.

[@SwissCheese112]

@ not surprised

[@truncksZR]

Hahah cim je nas Mirko znaci moze jos 50% dole kad ubaci pola rodbine u firmu

[@Value-Investing]

:-))))

[@dieseldavebrown]

sold my 2000 shares at 41.17 CAD, don't know where the bottom will be - definitely a falling knife

[@philrobinson2327]

No dividend increase is a dividend cut. It will be cut further as BCE cannot continue to borrow to pay the dividend. That's right, they do not have enough cash to cover the payout! Also they have debt coming due for renewal with higher interest rates! Not good! This is why I sold it all. What was once a great company, is not headed into the abyss!!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing, we will see how it works!

[@TemperanceMinistry-ri2nz]

I did an analysis on AQN on my channel. It’s a Canadian company like BCE but BCE could well be an interesting play for a shorter time horizon given the dividend will not be cut next year and Canada leading the way in cutting rates. Picking up 10% as a dividend and some appreciation into 2025 as rates fall in canada will be enough to beat the market in 2025 imo

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@parkerbohnn]

Short term rate cuts are meaningless to dividends only long term interest rates affect dividends.

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[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@human1513]

Have they ever cut the dividend before? Remember all stocks are manipulated like most things tha are bought, sold & shorted. Lots of guessing in this video. Maybe, we might, they could, should,... a 6 year old could say this. It might snow tomorow!

[@Value-Investing]

Exactly what investing is, I cannot know the future, I can only find out my level of conviction, and in 99.9% of the cases I can't know enough! Maybe I am just not as smart as you!

[@zeusvalentine3638]

Bell has an atrocious reputation for ripping off customers by giving them deals that reset after a few months to high prices. So much that Canadians no longer like the company and are cancelling their services. I cancelled mine last year. This company has no where to go but down IMO.

[@MartenDykstra]

Starlink is the future not Fibre internet. BCE is run by rich dinosaurs

[@parkerbohnn]

Bell has the same bad management that they've had for the better part of the last 70 years.

[@highthereguys]

lol starlink leverages ground based fibre genius

[@MartenDykstra]

@@highthereguys To every house hold? No, Fibre is going to shrink, Genius

[@highthereguys]

@@MartenDykstra Fibre to every house never made economical sense genius. If there wasnt a backbone of fibre on the ground starlink would be much worse. You dont know what you are talking about Genius

[@MartenDykstra]

@ I’m wrong then

[@ericchang2066]

Bce will be like nortel

[@beauchampfrancois151]

They have lots of competition, no moat, their customer service is awful and has been so for 15 years or so.

[@SwissCheese112]

@@beauchampfrancois151 the moat was their extensive infrastructure but that seems to have been negated by these new regulations

[@swparsons]

They suck, but there is no real alternative except Roger’s who suck even more.

[@SwissCheese112]

@@swparsons Telus is a decent alternative, except in central Canada and the east. then you're stuck with rogers and bell. If i was a betting man, i think bell will bounce back after these new regulatory agreements expire. Quebecoir will go back to the dark ages, and bell will surge. They probably need the new fibre optic company to simply generate more cash so they can increase dividends until this regulatory shit blows over. But, that's all just an educated guess at this point.

[@swparsons]

@@SwissCheese112 I think so too. For internet, There are only 2 wires connecting houses , at least here in Ontario ( bell and rogers) and bell has the fiber which is superior tech. Starlink is great but it’s for low density rural areas so not a factor. When conservatives take power the regulatory pain might ease off.

[@SwissCheese112]

@@swparsons Yeah it will, there is always this surge of regulatory nonsense from time to time. the rogers-shaw deal didn't help.

[@ahmedelalfy3107]

The fall of BCE is just an indication of what is in store for the country of Canada, Canada with or without Bell will never recover. Goodbye

[@georgepudsey516]

A dog by any other name. Sorry canines.

[@rally_chronicles]

It's tanking. Get out. Get into apple, Amazon, us index, msft. Lol Canadian companies. Looololol

[@SwissCheese112]

@@rally_chronicles Canadian companies are great for Canadians with a TFSA. We pay no tax on earnings or dividends. Yes, bell is a sinking ship. Getting into american stocks would mean us having to deal with a 15% American withholding tax and having to deal with canadian income tax. Its not worth it to us in Canada.