Stock Market is in Super Bubble! Crash? Maybe! Solution: BE HEDGED!

[@Sanchyfab]

Dollar cost averaging and diversification is essential in these situations

[@Sanchyfab]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skills and knowledge

[@camela8445Mar]

Hedging is not a bad one, yeah that's a good path, focus on a good strategy, relax back and watch it compound within the years. In good time you'll see returns.

[@camela8445Mar]

It's crucial for individuals to diversify their portfolios, seek professional financial advice, and stay informed about market trends to navigate these challenges effectively.

[@Deitricklaverne]

Agreed, I've always delegated my excesses to an advisor, since suffering major portfolio loss early 2020, amid covid outbreak. I'm now semi-retired and only work 7.5 hours a week, with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments to date.

[@benjamineprg4249]

Excellent share, curiously inputted Joseph Nick Cahill on the internet, spotted his consulting page ranked top and was able to schedule a call session. Ive seen commentaries about advisors but not one looks this phenomenal

[@pfopdoodle]

You went a little too fast on how to hedge with option. Can you make videos how to do that? How did you pick the strike price? Shouldn't we pick a date further out? Or maybe that's not possible? Why hedge SPY only?

[@mathewwilson9776]

Those questions depend on what you want. You are simply buying insurance, so it is up to you to decide what premium you are comfortable with and what degree of protection you seek. SPY is now at 605. Suppose I want to protect that over the next year. I see that there is a 605 Put option expiring in Dec 2025 trading for $29, which is 4.8%. So I can protect 100 shares of SPY and ensure that the most I can lose over the next year is 4.8%. Is that what you want? Are you okay with that price? If you want to be insured less time, say through June 2025, then it is cheaper obviously, only 3.3%, but you will then have to roll the put in 6 months if you still want protection, potentially at a higher implied volatility if markets have already started to correct, etc. Exact same mindset as when you purchase ordinary insurance.

[@fepeerreview3150]

I second this.

[@reneebuffington2014]

Also you must understand in the short term if you buy put contracts on SPY for example, you will be watching the value of those contracts go down, down exponentially when SPY goes up. But if SPY takes a nosedive your puts will pay off big. I bought them at 520 strike when SPY was at $575. Look for books about hedging with put options because there’s a lot of decisions and they’re all very personal.

[@mathewwilson9776]

As for why only SPY. Implied volatility is lower for SPY than for individual names, so the premium is lower. If you wanted to protect 100 shares of Microsoft through Dec 2025, then implied volatility would be 24% (vs SPY's 16%) so the premium you would have to pay is around 8%. I don't know about you, but I find it pointless to hedge. I don't have holdings trading at 30-50x earnings and if something I hold drops, I want to be taking advantage and buying, as opposed to wasting money on puts.

[@PonderDuke]

Buying a put, let's say at strike 605, which you pay a premium for, means that if the price on expiration is below 605, the seller of the put has to buy your 100 shares at a price of 605 from you. So it's insurance for if the price drops below 605. If the price goes higher you still have your shares and ride along with the profits. The premium is paid and "lost" but you buy your safety. And insurance fee basically. You do have to repeat it every year if you want to stay "safe" like that. That's what they mean by roll it out. Your insurance expires so you have to buy a new one if you want. At a price that is smart at that point in time. If the price dropped below 605 you will have 60500 in cash and can decide what to do with it. But are you willing to pay 28.18 * 100 = 2818 to insure 60500 for one year? And the next year?

[@mydressmemos]

The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.

[@HoskinsShanellNicole]

For the average person, the strategies are fairly demanding. In actuality, most professionals who have the necessary abilities and knowledge to complete such occupations do so successfully.

[@tatianastarcic]

That's awesome! Diversifying your 350K portfolio with the help of an investment coach has really paid off. Making over $730k in net profit from high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and bonds is quite impressive. Your investment strategy seems to be working wonders for you!

[@LUCIASMITH-d1z]

I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with?

[@tatianastarcic]

When Melissa Terri Swayne’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.

[@JacobsErick-u8r]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@don_hug]

Where do market timers like me stand, I have 300k in money market funds with Fidelity and scared to invest in anything, stocks and gold are volatile alike and bonds are a no go area for me? What is the best course of action?

[@MariaLorenpe]

Consult with a comprehensive financial planner, don’t take decisions in your own hands especially at times like this.

[@don_hug]

How does one get a financial planner who isn’t just looking to make a buck? (upfront fees and whatnot) my spouse and I are in the market for guidance at this point

[@ric-morris7763]

My 2 cents check the locals around you, me I travel a lot so I use one in New York renowned amongst my colleagues and business partners alike. Glen Howard Chester. he takes on clients every quarter and he has an aum of over 500m usd and offers convenient virtual consultations.

[@KevinCollins09]

​ @ric-morris What’r the fees like for visiting with this advisor of yours?

[@ric-morris7763]

Actually you pay fees only after you have began to make progress. Best you reach out yourself and do your due diligence. Thank me later.

[@Armstrong741]

Crash or no crash, when everything is pushing ATH, it's time to start trimming some of the fat and increase dry powder. I'm considering diversifying my portfolio of $200k to hedge against downturns but unsure of the best strategy to do so.

[@RobbStonee]

Absolutely. It's better to be prepared. Even if the crash doesnt happen, having a diversified portfolio can protect us from other risks. I was going solo without much success until my wife introduced me to an advisor. I've achieved over 80% capital growth this year, excluding dividends. Highly recommend!

[@Marquez919]

pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio

[@RobbStonee]

Marissa Lynn Babula is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’ll find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@kejuu6887]

Intuition tells to sell when everything in pushing ATH, but statistically it is very rarely a good idea. Statistically, buying ATH has always been the best strategy hands down.

[@gymgainsbeginners]

11:48 ”When you are young, ride but always use protection” - Sven Carlin 😂😂😂

[@SilvesterMiles-y4j]

So, I’ve got $154K just sitting in my emergency fund, and I’m finally ready to dive into the stock market. But... the market's in a super bubble, huh? Gotta love the timing! Anyway, guess it’s time to start thinking about hedging and figuring out where the heck to start. Any ideas?

[@MollyShorters]

I get where you're coming from, but don’t get too caught up in the "super bubble" hype. Yeah, things are uncertain, but you can still find opportunities. I'd say focus on solid companies, maybe even look into index funds. On top of that, I’d recommend working with a financial advisor. A good one helped me navigate the chaos and gave me peace of mind.

[@VeronicaOlivers]

I hear you both, but I’m honestly lost when it comes to finding the right advisor. I feel like I need some guidance but don’t know where to even start looking for one. Any tips on how to find someone who’s actually trustworthy?

[@MollyShorters]

There are a handful of CFAs. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Linda Aretha Reeves for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field, look her up

[@SilvesterMiles-y4j]

Just checked out Linda Aretha Reeves-she seems like exactly what I need! Watched her speak at a Bloomberg Finance Summit a few years ago, and she was amazing! Definitely feels like she’s got the expertise I’m looking for.

[@CharlotteJacobsons]

I watched Linda Aretha at the Bloomberg Finance Summit four years ago, and her presentation was phenomenal! I’m sold on her approach.

[@ElizabethMorgan-ld9yv]

Interesting insights! As someone trying to build a balanced portfolio, I’m wondering-do you think hedging strategies are effective for smaller investors, or are they better suited for those with larger portfolios and access to advanced tools?

[@EthanExplores-g2h]

If you're not familiar with market investing tactics, you should get advice from a financial counselor.

[@barquie]

Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q3 2024.

[@phuc2583]

Who is your advisor, if you don’t mind sharing?

[@barquie]

Her name is “CATERINA MARY CIARLANTE”. You can research her name to find the necessary details and set up an appointment.

[@phuc2583]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@stoyanp4138]

Sorry to be pedantic again but at 4:33 I don't think the graph shows hyperscalers investing 200% of cash flows. The % of OCF is the blue line, measured on the scale on the right. That would be about 40%. The numbers over the bars (200 and above) refer to USD billions spent (left scale).

[@Swtcher-in3yc]

Really like you analysis even though a lot of people argue against these facts... I guess they are afraid their party will end instead of seeing opportunity of such a clear case. Thanks for all the research and sharing your thoughts!

[@corporanvihas]

Crypto investment requires a thoughtful approach, considering factors like exchange types, market volatility, and the distinction between coins and tokens. One must navigate through scarce quality information and understand the significance of market capitalization over mere price tags. Emphasizing self-custody, the importance of a diverse portfolio, and aligning investments with personal time horizons are key. Moreover, crypto offers a unique hedge against traditional financial systems, but it's crucial to stay vigilant ensuring secure and informed investment decisions..managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... At the heart of this evolution is Eugenia Eiland, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment..

[@corporanvihas]

Eugenia Eiland program is widely available online..

[@Jakesportel]

insightful comments, very much appreciated.. just came across the consulting page of Eugenia Eiland after inputting her full name on the web, super impressed with what i've seen so far

[@blumettimoniak]

After a series of trading setbacks, I was on the brink of giving up until I encountered Eugenia 's program. With her guidance, I've not only recouped past losses but am now charting a trajectory of consistent growth.

[@Brains4369]

Investing in Bitcoin is the wisest asset to be in, not trying to shit on other stocks, it just won’t outperform Bitcoin over pretty much any long time horizon…reality over feelings!!

[@Jakesportel]

Crypto role as a store of value and its potential for future growth make it an attractive investment option. trading can be a thrilling way to participate in this digital asset's journey.

[@thisisjayschannel]

History has taught us, when you hear "too big to fail" then it's time to start considering your exit strategy

[@sameer159]

Hi Sven, I’ve noticed your continued criticism of index funds like the S&P 500. I agree it’s overpriced and could see a correction, but I think hedging might not be the best solution. It’s expensive, complicated, and tends to lower long-term returns, especially for the average investor. Why not focus on diversification instead? By spreading investments across different regions and asset classes, you can reduce risk and still preserve and grow capital over the long term. It’s simpler, cheaper, and more effective than hedging. Geographic and asset class diversification, in particular, can help balance out the risks of being concentrated in one market like the S&P 500. In conclusion, you continue to bring up a Portfolio design issue, not a passive investment issue.

[@Value-Investing]

Do what works best for you

[@Value-Investing]

Do what works best for you

[@stex83]

@sameer159 I disagree. If the sp500 falls all the other geographic areas will follow. I've never seen a scenario where the sp50p doesn't influence the rest of the world.

[@sameer159]

@stex83 Sure, there are short-term influences, often driven by investor sentiment or sudden market shifts. But in the long run, the stock market is a "weighing machine," with prices ultimately reflecting fundamentals. That said, asset classes like gold, fuel, and bonds behave differently from equities. While international equities often show strong correlation with the S&P 500 due to global economic ties. Lastly, historical data doesn’t predict future results. It can inform us about patterns and behaviors, but we must expect deviations

[@adriantimar4290]

@@stex83 agree; not even bonds behaved as hedge in 2022; i see a point in spreading geographical areas if sp500 will lateralize for a few years

[@davidm1436]

The problem with the put is if the market stays flat then you gain nothing from the market and your put expires worthess and you lose money, also you are constantly dealing with the decay and your put keeps losing value over time... Overall I think it's better to edge in other ways...

[@eslnoob191]

Yeah buying puts is a dumb move for the average investor (and I'd even dare argue is always a dumb move). Sensible asset allocation is a much less risky way to handle risk.

[@Andreavince-v]

I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2025

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

[@JamesKjones-n7r]

I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

My CFA Stacy Lynn Staples a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further.

[@heatherj-o5j]

I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you

[@Angeladuff]

Great video. As a long term holder and trader we don’t care much about current price. As a trader looking to buy when oversold and sell when overbought, the weekly and 2 week charts are showing us we’re oversold and it’s a great time to buy more. Price on 2 wk bouncing off a rising 20 MA. Price on weekly chart is bouncing off a rising 40 Ma. The stochastic RSI on both charts is way oversold. Translation, great time to buy. Thx again for the different ways/ perspectives/ lenses to look at BTC’s potential. BTC is the ultimate disruptor.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Laura Brockman whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Angeladuff]

@LauraBrockman

[@Angeladuff]

SHE IS ON TELE GRAM

[@MissKhooYH]

One thing I know for certain is crypto is here to stay, the only thing that leaves is the people who don't manage their risk. Manage that, or the market will manage it for you. With the right strategies you will survive.

[@Louisochoa]

Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today…..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.

[@laurenPalma]

Thank you…. I have searched her up Google I think I am satisfied with her experience.

[@fepeerreview3150]

4:19 Looking at that chart - "Super bubble" makes sense. I think it's just the phrase that scares people. Take that same chart, take away the labels on the axes and tell people it's the chart of a stock. People would believe it with no problem. Draw a moving average on it and people would readily accept that it will revert to the mean. So, yes, it will. We can depend on that. When? Who knows? That's why I'm watching this video. I want to get a better idea on hedging strategies. Thank you, Sven, for thinking of the subject at this time. I'm learning so much from your channel.

[@larsnystrom6698]

People, even analysts, utilize the current price for value. And seems to assume that it will continue up however high it is. Traders know the market apways exaggerate, both ways. When fundamentals goes against that trend, though, something usually happens sooner or later. Usually later, though 🙂

[@fizzyfish-k4q]

Hi Sven, thank you for your hard work. Could you please do a update video on Alibaba and Chinese stocks in general? I think we would really be interested in your thoughts. Thank you!

[@Deepzombie]

The people that bought into China have already experienced a bubble crashing. At least their value of their equities have decreased in similar fashion. Now is the time to buy into china and hope that the CCP does not get too much feeling and invade Taiwan. Short term there is also the Trump tariff bonanza that could have negative impact. Fundamentals are good but it carries risk so weighting your bets are crucial.

[@fizzyfish-k4q]

@Deepzombie China will not invade Taiwan. If they wanted to, they would have done it years ago. Western media promoting the whole anti china narrative is getting old fast

[@pauline-o2q]

How can I reallocate the $400k in my investment portfolio to capitalize on market volatility?

[@CharlesT.Foster]

You should better diversify your portfolio to defensive assets. If you don’t have good experience you should consult with a fiduciary

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

I wish i learnt most of these principles about seven years ago. A lot of people have been trapped strongly in the matrix. Sometimes Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.

[@RobertS.Headrick]

I could really use the expertise of this advsors

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Her name is ‘Stacy Lynn Staples. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

That phrase "I'm not interested in being right, I'm interested in making money" is so ingrained as a cliché that we even have it in Spanish where I live. Of course it's an idiotic and irrational phrase, because to make money you have as a necessary and sufficient condition: Be right. The phrase should be rephrased for anyone who doesn't like repeating stupid things like: "I'm interested in quickly realizing that I was wrong so I stop losing" or something similar. Greetings!

[@viktorianas]

Lets say I do think that Nasdaq will pump hard this month, I'm probably right, but... It contradicts my fundamental beliefs as a value investor, I'm willing to buy ONLY when the PRICE is RIGHT, not then I'm RIGHT... I hope that makes sense?

[@BironClark]

It's not idiotic or irrational. Example: A trading system can be wrong more than 50% of the time and still make money. Or for a long-term investor, you can just have wide diversification, hedge well, and slowly accumulate wealth over time without any worries. That's what I do. I'm wrong a TON. I predicted the US presidential election completely wrong, for example. I also thought oil prices would be much higher. But I just have wide diversification, I've made money this year, and it doesn't matter. The phrase isn't bad.

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

@@BironClarkYes, but even in that system you only make money when you are right.

[@eddiealfano]

If S&P was around 1500 in 2007 and it historically earns a 10-percent return each year, you'd expect it to double every 7 or 8 years. Which would mean you'd expect it to double by 2015 (3,000) and then again by 2023 (6,000). So we're right where you'd expect us to be, historically.

[@bpurkapi]

Yes. There is this thing called productivity improvements and population growth that the market tends to reflect. Until 1992 many markets were completely closed (communism/distrust of former colonial powers). They gradually opened and now we have most of the world engaging in trade and business with faster and easier access. The markets would go even higher if several countries had better laws around trading.

[@sambezim]

Its hard to sell value investing videos when the US accounts for 60% of global market capitalization at a 3.2% earning yield. Stay strong, keep going! great videos!

[@OptionData-e6b]

What makes it hard to sell value investing is that he doesn't seem to get anything right. The easiest way to sell something is a track record. And the track record I have been seeing from the things he mentions on KZbin is what it is. He said 40% of his portfolio was in China. I don't know for how long, but regardless, how is that doing? He said that another large position is Liberty Global. Regardless of how long he has been holding, how is that doing? I can see how Seth Klarman has done: not great, and it doesn't seem like he will ever recover. Then you have the names he mentions repeatedly on KZbin: Rubis, Acomo, ADM, Nutrien... How is all that doing? Meanwhile, any clown out there with a basket of risky overvalued (yet growing and inmensely profitable) tech companies keeps outpacing year after year after year... Just keeping it real.

[@sambezim]

@@OptionData-e6b Point taken. I am just appreciate him delivering macro facts. Even though they are basic they are rare these days.

[@OptionData-e6b]

@@sambezim And don't get me wrong, I am sure he must have done great for himself over the years. I would just appreciate seeing some concrete result every now and then.

[@RafitoMembroza]

@@OptionData-e6bI was member of his investment platform, and I can tell you that he was not 40% in China. He had a bad timing and luck, it was a savage bear market that we will see a few times in our lifetime. He was probably mistaken in putting more money than he should in Alibaba with the fundamentals deteriorating, but the overall analysis was right.

[@RafitoMembroza]

@@OptionData-e6b regarding your comment on stocks like Rubis, Nutrien, etc… who cares what they do in a year or two? That short term performance compared to the market is not saying anything because nobody has the crystal ball to predict the performance. Some of those companies are trading below PE 10 and paying dividends. When market crashes, everything will crash, but those companies will be able to buyback stock and will recover faster. A company with high ratios may take years to recover

[@toddleggat8801]

i think youre brilliant.. everything you say i agree with. keep up the great work, i would pay for this content

[@faridoon15]

This might be a dumb question but if you own a stock which is limited in numbers, there is no dilution, wouldn't that mean its price increases against inflation? So if we get 20% inflation, isn't that stocks rising 20%? Such that if you owned a stock for shillings in the UK in the 1920s, that would be valued in ££ now.

[@Value-Investing]

depends how the business is manages with inflation and pricing

[@stex83]

would be interesting to see a more specific video on the "put" strategy

[@Value-Investing]

Not really my kind of thing :/( just an idea

[@CS-kh2sd]

@@Value-Investing so does that mean you accept a -50% decline incl. over-reactions with your portfolio rather than heding somewhat? From what I take, even decently rated stocks will go down big time in such an event... The alternative would be to hold plenty/most of cash, waiting - but that might be years...

[@AnshMeta-j7r]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis. Stocks have stayed aloft as signs of cooler inflation I believe the Fed is finally done with raising rates, that means “Santa has come early” to the markets. What are the best additions to a $500K portfolio to boost performance?

[@SallyW414]

I recommend you seek the guidance of a financial advisor, Who will advise you buy stocks to purchase.

[@Fahima9Tazin]

Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80,000, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550,000.

[@SteveKalfman-yv7co]

I’m intrigued by your progress. Could you share some insights into your trading strategy or perhaps recommend any specific resources or mentors that have led to your success.

[@Fahima9Tazin]

Sure, Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment

[@Fahima9Tazin]

Finding financial advisors like Vivian Jean Wilhelm who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@investwise3383]

Appreciate the Video, Sven! Other than the Buying Puts or be on Cash, would you please make video on different strategies to hedge against this Super Bubble?

[@HS-PGA]

Housing now the higher price you pay the bigger you get to boast what status bracket you are in . This is what drives housing now . Rather than I picked this asset up for a bargain . You can boast about a cheaper deal … immediately anyway .

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@PASCALDAB]

I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice?

[@DonaldStokes-p]

Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Yes, I agree. I use a financial advisor too. Same person since 2020. I don't worry about whether the economy is going up or down or sideways. I always ride through.

[@Tonyrobs2]

I really want to get in with a financial advisor this year, especially as all markets are hitting lows. I don't want to be too optimistic and end up losing everything.

[@SeanTalkoff]

My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..

[@Tonyrobs2]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@Nemi51500515]

Just a comment of support. This is clearly going to end poorly, especially because no one thinks it is going to end poorly. We have reached insanity.

[@Felix-i9k]

Very interesting, actually, very good food for thought! Thank You!

[@karsinds]

It's simple: don't invest in overvalued stocks. Invest in value, undervalued and defensive stocks

[@TheRealSlobo]

Sven Brate..I live in chicago and there is something you are not considering here..Prices in USA jumped from 50% in some sectors to 200% in others..For example some insurances jumped 300% and TRUST ME in this crazy country nothing stops..People swallowed the inflation and now the prices are high but people got huge salary bumps..Also there is a record amount of cash on the side in money accounts..They will see that there will be no crush and will probably jump in. People took this inflation really nicely..And we are going into no deflation which means the market only adjusted for deflation and people got insane pay raises.I honestly dont think shit is going down..and even if it does it will only be technical correction of maybe 10-20-% but i also see a very fast V shape recovery since there are a lot of people holding cash..

[@fredericjanelle]

I am not knowledgeable with options strategies. If you could do a video on that topic or refer to other video/resources, it would be useful to me. Vielen Dank.

[@Chackalisimo]

I really like how you put this all together. Thank you, sir

[@elcheapofl]

It's tough sticking to your principles but one day people will look back and realize you were right.

[@mattia6224]

A crash always comes. Anyone who keeps saying that there will be a great collapse, if he has the stubbornness to repeat it for long enough, will eventually be right. It’s the same old story of the broken clock

[@elcheapofl]

@mattia6224 that's not the point, most of us know this market won't go on much longer but Sven is pointing out the signs.

[@WealthyChronicle]

So basically, the market is like a wild party right now, and the FED is the DJ keeping the music going.

[@karimmourabitamari6540]

You can buy a 2 year put on BRK B strike 460 for 31-32$. I still find it expensive but BRK B and a hedge should be safer that most of of things available.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@Skip8459]

Ride but always use protection. Solid advice.

[@aliasname602]

What is the best source or method to determining the pe ratio for an index? I see quite a range depending on source, and ai noise seems to be complicating matters further.

[@karapain9]

Hi Sven, can we have an analysis of Match Group please? The valuation indicators are quite on the low side…

[@AniWalt]

I recently sold my condo for $400k and want to invest in the stock market. However, I’m wary of FOMO, the risk of a bubble, and a potential market crisis. How can I best position myself to grow my money and benefit from any possible corrections?

[@Masumakh1]

The stock market is risky But staying on the sidelines is riskier. Missing the next bull run will be far more costly to your long-term wealth than getting in at the "right price". Consult a financial advisor if you're unsure how to proceed.

[@NicolePangea]

Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. During the covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence researched for advisors and thankfully came across one with grit. As of today, my portfolio has grown by 25% every quarter since Q3 2020.

[@ritaakaraz]

I've been considering getting one, but haven't been proactive about it. Can you recommend your advisor? I could really use some assistance.

[@NicolePangea]

I've stuck with the popularly Victoria Louisa Saylor for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up...

[@GaryBker]

Thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal... was able to spot Victoria after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience.

[@lgent2435]

12:00 Who is Spitz Nurgle?

[@christian-s1i1w]

Mark Spitznagel, head of Universa, sells protection to institutional investors

[@GregF-k7w]

What scares me about this market is everyone running for exits at the same time.

[@thetruth4829]

Sven, I told you index funds, more people are participating in the market, money has lost value due to inflation. Yes some stocks are overvalued but some stocks are cheap and at fair value 🤷‍♂️

[@Value-Investing]

Thank for sharing

[@Someone-lc6dc]

I’d be curious to know what you think of Johnson and Johnson. Good value?

[@diamend85]

are there good explanations on how tohedge with puts?

[@Value-Investing]

you need to buy them and then manage them if it happens, if not it is just a cost...

[@diamend85]

@ so for people with not to much experience and very little time to manage day to day cash or other asset classes like gold and bonds are propably the better option to hedge?

[@ren7sp25]

Nothing as frustrating than a market that keeps going up!

[@fabio.1]

Yes

[@Notme-s5t]

For value investors of course.

[@ren7sp25]

@@Notme-s5t No, for everyone, since you cannot trust it anymore.

[@rickyismyuncle4485]

@@ren7sp25 I would have sold everything if Kamala won. Trump prolonged the disaster for couple more years. I think its safe upcoming 2 years. Invest or get left behind. I predict huge bull market going first half next year.

[@eslnoob191]

@@ren7sp25 So true! Too many people think that asset appreciation = making money, but really it's the dividend income/rent from investments that really matters. If all assets are appreciating, what are you going to buy with that cash when you sell? A house that has also become more expensive during the same timeframe? This market really is frustrating! Especially with all asset classes in lockstep now (the everything bubble).

[@davidpratr]

I don’t get why a 7% in the market implies PER of 15 in valuation. Could you explain those mechanics slowly in another video ?

[@christian-s1i1w]

The idea is this: a company earning the same every year trading at a p/e of 15 has a ratio of market cap to earnings of 15, so that the earnings are 1/15 = 7% of the market cap every year; as an owner of the business, your yearly return is the business' earnings, so your return is roughly 7% per year.

[@davidpratr]

@@christian-s1i1w still I don't get it. If the PER is 15 it means one is paying 15 times the earnings but it's not related to the market cap, isn't it? the PER of 30 would imply by the same rule a 3% per year, which doesn't make sense because the per 30 means that the company is more valued because the % per year should be higher...

[@christian-s1i1w]

@@davidpratr Hello again. The P/E-ratio is defined as the price per share divided by the company's earnings per share. If you multiply the numerator and denominator by the number of shares, you arrive at the market cap divided by the company's earnings. So P/E-ratio = market cap / earnings. It is correct that a P/E-ratio of 33 would imply a return of 3% per year. The inverse relationship between the P/E-ratio and the implied return is because when you pay more up front, your return will be lower.

[@johnmcquaid7524]

Smart message! Thank-you.

[@NejcCajner]

How can you buy puts (or any kind of other options trading) if you're living in the EU?

[@joezw99]

What about the money printing Sven? What makes you think there will be a huge drop in the market when there's more and more money going around and ease of investing with fee free trading like Robinhood? I don't think it's valid to use the 1929 recession as an example as that was more a regulatory issue and immaturity in the markets.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

2008 was a regulatory issue, too. They have very big consequences.

[@Notme-s5t]

Hi Sven, can staying outside of the US market protect us? For example, emerging markets blue chip companies.

[@lohti6399]

S&P 500 crashed -80% after year 1920. It is spectacular without money printing. 😂

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@Martin-ew3ql]

Another great vid Sven, thank you! Just picked up your book together with Ben Grahams bible to learn more about value investing. I wonder wich i should read first 🙂 maybe the "old" one first to dive into "modern" afterwards. greetings from AT

[@Value-Investing]

i have a summary of BEn's book, maybe a little bit more up to date here on YT

[@Miro_L]

Not sure, however I think it is first time you mention puts and options. Something that I don’t understand and don’t want to even think about it. Just me

[@coindrop]

I don't think the average investor should start shorting the market..

[@bpurkapi]

Agree with you. They'd be better off just putting more in high yield savings accounts, money market funds, and short-term treasuries. You can do SGOV for around 4.5%.

[@johnvogt621]

Can you go over how exactly one would get this hedge?

[@Value-Investing]

See whether options fit xou

[@jirojiro1029]

If as you said your goal for value investing is not to lose money then you can just keep 100% cash. Or do you mean inflation adjusted?

[@mariof1468]

He can buy us treasuries.

[@Ferenczi69Aron]

You mention hyperinflation which seems like an inevitable outcome. What would hyperinflation of the US dollar even look like, maybe an idea for a video?

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

@0:45 Best thing I have heard all week. 🤜🤛 Edit: I'm more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.

[@Duuj1]

Hi Sven, love your videos. I have been following your prospective for over 2 years. I have a question for you. It's OK if you don't awnser since your youtube channel has provided me with slot of value. Here it goes. ... let's say you have 25% in short term us treasury bonds , can't you just buy SQQQ with 10% and keep 15% in SGOV? since sqqq doesn't have an expiration date like put options and no theta decay ?

[@Steve-nb9kg]

Good time to buy puts, volatility is very low right now. If fact the VIX is at 52 week lows, and looks like around all time lows.

[@efiroozy]

Sven , shipping companies are getting really cheap . When you going to evaluate them

[@jasonalexander7089]

Hi Sven great vid. You know for a basic fact, almost entirely likely, that this bubble won't continue much longer. Reg people are gonna see 2 things happening simultaneously and connect the dots, national debt and mag 7 market cap, when this is realized the wall street takeover of America will end

[@ace5655]

Earnings aint going back to 15 PE average. Tech in terms of growth and monopolies arnt compareable. Without context or comparison to history your argument makes sense.

[@cdshannon23]

The 5-year average of tech P/E range from 38… that’s tech specifically who has a high P/E… for the entirety of the economy be 38…. Is alarming. Tech P/E is trading around 50 right now… That’s high growth… Maybe it’s priced in that AI will control the entire economy but idk… It’s hard to see the growth P/E to match the size of the companies already. Will we have a 4 or 5 trillion company with AI?

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

The question now is what is the new normal for P.E. ratios? I agree with your assertion that they're not going back to 15, courtesy of all the printed money that's hit the market in the last few years. But I can't see them staying where they are, either. They are way too high, despite the capital injection.

[@unktzor]

The message is great Sven! I got maybe a stupid question, doesn't/shouldn't PE ratios rise with inflation -and therefore be higher than the traditional historical average? And maybe a possible timing of a crash would be towards the 2nd half of Trumps presidency up towards the end? I consider it likely.

[@Value-Investing]

good question, but we cannot know whether inflation will or will not improve earnings...

[@raymond-i2v]

I think it's important to stick to stocks that are immune to economic policies. I'm looking atPALANTIR and other AI stocks that have the potential to power and transform future technologies. It seems AI is the trajectory most companies are taking, including even established FAANG companies

[@Jordan8568-l4u]

Well all i know is that you cannot go wrong taking profit at near high. No one ever went broke taking a ~20% profit. It's best if you consult with a fiduciary advisor in situations like this so you can make informed decisions.

[@RayaMarcus]

That's a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see.

[@Fred-w7t]

That's a great tip. I'm setting out 50k to invest in the market this year. Any particularly useful tips you could offer to me?

[@RayaMarcus]

I have a female advisor named Stacy Lynn Staples I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.

[@Johnwestly-l6n]

I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip

[@alessandro4450]

Sven, what about arbitrage funds, giving 5-8% yr regardless of market direction? Maybe a good option too. What's your thoughts?

[@lucschoonen]

what I don't understand is, why is the sp500 so high, when bonds give 4,4% yield... the relative valuation of stocks vs bonds doesn't make sense to me

[@Hlbkomer]

Hey Svenmeister how about AMD?

[@mercurylogistic]

I feel investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market... Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered...... I don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@romank.3728]

It's only a bubble, if it bursts! :) Sven, did you know, that your (and mine) approach is the same as the one from Rocky Balboa: "It ain't about how hard you can hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep movin' forward. How much you can take and keep movin' forward. That's how winnin' is done!". So, basically we evolutionized the boring Value investing into "Eye of the Tiger"- investing. :)))

[@HS-PGA]

I’m no genius but if a genius increases his cash to 28% so will I and maybe even a little more to 33% .

[@Value-Investing]

Simple

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

You've got to have cash in your portfolio. Financial advisers and fund managers hate it, because it cuts into their profits. But cash is king in a correction. I'm currently carrying a greater percentage than usual, along with bonds, gold and silver.

[@raithki9246]

200% of cashflow spending is a wrong statement at 4:30

[@razoir2]

Stop the press! I noticed a dramatic change. After years of using the opening “Good day fellow investor”, yesterday it was changed to “Good day fellow VALUE investor”. Today, we’re back to the original line. Common Sven, don’t be afraid of change! Lol!

[@boratsmagadijev940]

Isnt sp500 P/E ~15 or 16 without the magnificent 7? So sp500 is at fair value without the big tech 7 companies...? 🤔🙃 Uzivaj u blagdanima Sven.

[@SergioMartinez-i4n]

The stock market seems to be gaining momentum right now, but I believe it's still important for investors to exercise caution. I'm relatively new to investing, so I'm eager to hear perspectives from more experienced investors.

[@RalphTaylor-g3e]

The stock market is likely the best smart investment. However, if you are thinking of investing in the stock market and you are not well versed, its advisable to work with a financial advisor who is an expert to guide you through the process. this way you could make more profit with less risk.

[@uwerathsack]

I agree. Based on my personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has seen exponential growth. It's not just about having money to invest in stocks; you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have the strength to hold on during market fluctuations

[@JakubKrempasky-f7h]

Thanks for sharing your experience! I've been managing my portfolio myself, but it's not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help.

[@uwerathsack]

Caroline Suzan Olson a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@JakubKrempasky-f7h]

Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!

[@BruutBlondiee]

Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.

[@Sarminrain]

Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.

[@Brookejesse-z6y]

We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.

[@MariaAmie-d3p]

I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!

[@Brookejesse-z6y]

ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT a renowned figure in her line of work, i recommend researching her credentials further.... she has many years of experience and a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market

[@wood-e9s]

Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.

[@tzvassilev]

Sven, I appreciate your analysis, however when you look at history you seem to ignore the monetary policy conditions. When the money printing accelerates, things start looking like a bubble, but this is just the monetary effect. If you want to assess, if one particular asset class, e.g. the stock market, is overvalued, then you should rather look at its valuation in real terms, not in fiat currency. For example, take a look at the S&P 500 value expressed in gold and then you might see that we are far from a bubble... Fiat currencies are being shamelessly debased since years with the objective to lower the costs of labor. Real incomes have been dropping since 20+ years and this is the elephant in the room nobody is talking about. Financial assets only mirror this trend in the opposite direction as it is normal and rational to reprice these to match the money printing of the CBs.

[@Value-Investing]

True, but we are still at 30 times earnings!!

[@RobertP9000]

@@Value-Investing because the smart money knows countries are not done debasing the fiat currencies.

[@andrearusso8145]

Great video as always Sven, keep it up! You are definitely in my top 3 favourite KZbinrs. Educational, funny, and good at explaining complex topics!

[@GymForLifeHD]

i start opening some shorts not because i want market go down but some of my position are very green and i dont want to loose that lol

[@qasim.sayeed]

Thank you for the content!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and the bitcoin halving is a life changing opportunity

[@tushar.rohit383]

believe the Bitcoin ETF will be life changing opportunity with my current portfolio of 132k made from my investments with my personal financial advisor < Mrs Grace > I totally agree with you

[@avantika.singh.k]

YES!!! That's exactly her name ( Mrs Grace ) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Oslo Norway 🇳🇴

[@tausifmansuri]

she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.

[@tausifmansuri]

It is critical to have a strategy in place to capitalize on profits when they occur.

[@saadhana.naidu1]

Yeah, 198k from Mrs Grace, looking up to acquire a new house, blessings.

[@tomateeee33]

Fed lost control of the bond market long time ago just winning time, rates are going higher sorted by the market

[@Value-Investing]

finally the market is reacting, let's see how it goes!

[@mikkelhansen3714]

Great video!

[@garp9433]

All my accounts are basically 30% cash. I am not hedged, in fact, im overly concentrated in chips which actually was a great idea. I am going to sell today though on my chips (SMH) position and move to index funds over a period of time. I made the mistake of focusing on SMH and not just NVDA. 10% of my holdings are in NVDA and about 15% are in SMH. So, I'll just reduce SMH.

[@shannonoliver7992]

Hyperinflation? This is what you're predicting?

[@Value-Investing]

I am not predicting anything!

[@fabio.1]

🔮

[@pongop]

He said it's a possibility

[@AppleSeth]

Earnings! Earnings! Once they falter for a few quarters then the party is over for a while at least? Thoughts?

[@abvincent12]

It’s clear we all need to move to Denmark!

[@matts5535]

Most pay no mind to the maths or statistics. They operate on belief. Thankfully that seems to be on the decline as well.

[@larsnystrom6698]

If we only loose 30% after riding a bubble up, we are still better off. But if we loose 60%,... Timing the market by looking at fundamentals is futile. It makes us into perma-bears.

[@Value-Investing]

Agree, fundamentals dont matter! :-)))

[@marvulishious]

I have problem with value. Nobody sees real value anymore.

[@hershbagelstein545]

Watch the VIX-so far, no FEAR. What gives?

[@Value-Investing]

We will see

[@unktzor]

Value investing is great but if I would have stayed 100% into the value investing mind I would have made 20% instead of a few 100's. I invested 1k in Mstr and turned into 15k. With value investing I had to wait 30 years for a return like that. Massive profits are the best hedge you can get.

[@Value-Investing]

I am happy for you!

[@unktzor]

@@Value-Investing And I am more than happy for you. Your way works and made you lots of money over the years. I had to start with basically $0 and had to make more risky investments. Although I don't necessarily see that digital gold as a risk. Everyone with 100million that wants to protect their wealth should at least own 1% I believe, so there is demand and they can't print more as they do with ANY fiat around the world, we both know it goes to 0 eventually. I like the videos where you show your stack of Croatian money I believe. Keep up the good work!

[@dsanti4069]

They been saying super bubble for 10 years . With 10% inflation . Why would anyone hold cash . Assets higher !!

[@FrankQC100]

Ride but always use protection.

[@k4ir0s]

Sven, what's your opinion on using resilient insurance companies as a hedge? Companies like PGR for example.

[@Value-Investing]

Dont know much about insurance :-(

[@dividendking3686]

18% cash with floating rate and monthly payouts and only (meaningful) dividend paying companies (yield on cost 6,3%). I'm ready if we go down 🎉

[@mattia6224]

The real question that no catastrophe-monger is talking about is: when the market eventually collapses, will it fall enough to go under the prices I got out of years ago? because the big risk is that you will feel that you have avoided the great catastrophe, to be very good, but in reality you will only have lost more money than others

[@mattia6224]

Remember that even if the multiples will collapse, but they will do it in a few years, in the meantime the profits will have grown, maybe less, but they will be with good probability increased, and it is not certain that the return to the average of the multiples calculated on new earnings will reach the prices you expect

[@mattia6224]

But it is always a good idea to buy hedge when insurance price is low and multiples are high. And I love Spitznagel

[@Storgaaard]

Hi Sven. So how exactly to hedge? Right now I am keeping about 50% in 0-1 year bond EFTs and Berkshire, but I honestly fear that if your doomsday scenario is right even they will go through the floor. The option you told about sounds interesting but also quite complicated - please make a video about it.