Beating a New Monty Hall Variation!

[@chefcarnage9974]

I love this episode, but that sponsor ad is probably my favorite part of any episode

[@Maninawig]

It's a scam.... Or rather a repeat

[@micahphilson]

I'm pretty sure they just reused this one. I remember it really well because the first time, it was instantly my favorite ad of theirs ever. Now handily beaten out by the Modern Rogue NordVPN ad where Jason spontaneously screams his ass off.

[@darthmonks]

My favourite ad is from "The Impossible Instagram Illusion."

[@Maninawig]

@@micahphilson they did

[@moeenuddin6756]

Elijahv 0511 that's the old one

[@mydoggylives]

I wish I could like it twice... once for the content and again for the ad. I usually skip the ads, but lately I've actually been watching them on your channel! Good job!!

[@alanw9620]

I love the Monty Hall problem. My favourite incarnation of it has to be Derren Browns opener in Svengali. I also like the scene in 21.

[@ErikvO]

Actually the Monty Hall problem as stated in 21 doesn't work. It only works because the game show host is rulebound to open a door, while in the movie it states the game show host decides to open the door. And I'm pretty sure Derren Brown's one was a sleight of hand trick to make sure that the picker is always wrong. A lot of people forget that the Monty Hall scenario relies on some very specific conditions to actually give the 'you should always switch' answer. It's actually a pretty good scam. Ask someone who knows the Monty Hall problem to pick one out of three, if they're wrong immediately show them that they're wrong, if they're right open another door and offer them to switch. Anyone who knows the Monty Hall problem 'knows' that switching is the right choice and forgets that's only true if the host is rulebound to give you the choice to switch. Another fun one is the same problem but have the host open another door at random instead of a guaranteed wrong door, even if the host opens one of the wrong doors the chance is still 50/50 in that scenario.

[@jonahnicholas7373]

It’s a scam . . . dunk

[@ftlPhysicsGuy]

Even better, maybe: just show them two of theirs that are "not it" and allow them to keep the one card they have left OR take BOTH of the other cards. It's still a better bet to stick with your one!

[@Michaelminecraft1]

This is actually still the same trick. There will always be at least one non-ace in the remaining two cards. Simply showing the card is the same as giving both.

[@awfulfullawful8352]

That's what I was thinking. Could entice people to take the 2 other cards thinking it doubles their odds.

[@ftlPhysicsGuy]

Perhaps my comment didn't quite make it clear, but that was my point: letting them choose to take both of the "other" cards actually gives them the same odds they would have if you showed one of other cards and let them choose the take the remaining card. So, it's still better (by the exact same odds) for them to stick with their one card instead of choosing the other two. It's just less intuitive if you give them the choice of switching 1 for 2 instead of 1 for 1.

[@Salokin92]

@@ftlPhysicsGuy I think its about the psychological effect. Similarly to how people sometimes believe that the classic Monty Hall gives you a 50/50 instead of a 1/3 2/3 odd

[@RavenDravenek]

“ It’s a scam dunk” I’ve never been so proud and disgusted at the same time.

[@mixttime]

If you're finding it difficult to remember which ones to reveal, you can do the same general thing with 3 cards. Have them pick two, and then reveal in the ones they picked 1 loser. It also has a higher chance of working (67% as opposed to the 5 card's 60%). Biggest draw back is that it so closely mirrors the original problem that people are more likely to catch on.

[@AnRodz]

This is the best explanation of the Monty Hall I've ever heard. Short and sweet.

[@danielmolinaro1766]

Finally! Someone that explains Monty Hall in a easy and understandable way! Thanks Brian... Now I get it.

[@smoov22_sonic]

I like this new slick format!

[@Azrage]

When I see the ad the magic of editing inspires me to be a fake basketball star. I love scamschool ads. Once someone said that the real scam is the ad in the middle of the show, and told people to skip it. I told him the scam was that we have to sit through these episodes to get to those, sweet, sweet advertisements.

[@reverendayglow]

Best domain.com ad EVER! And took nearly nothing to produce too!

[@th0mas21]

Seriously so good! 2:05 You're welcome. One of the best ads I've seen, They are not paying you enough! Cheers

[@micahphilson]

Did they just reuse this ad? I mean, they may have just recycled the idea, but this was my favorite ad of his ever the first time, so I definitely remember it.

[@micahphilson]

It may not count since it's Scam School, but if it's just all of Brian's ads, then the NordVPN ad for Modern Rogue where Jason just breaks out screaming is by far and wide the best of all time, one of my favorite ads in general of all time!

[@timb1986]

"That's community management!"

[@AaronTheBlackDragon]

The ad was amazing. All them trickshots where had.

[@Wh0isTh3D0ct0r]

Ah dunno where had. Ees eet ohfur here? Meh-bee ohfur there?

[@RaineAvina]

I love this. It actually made me understand the original even better.

[@Sariiger]

I think this trick could work better if you only revealed the 2 loser cards from the ones they chose. So you could ask them whether they want to stay with the 1 unrevealed card they have left, or switch to the 2 other two cards that are unrevealed. It would essentially be the same, but for the player it would feel like switching is a better option.

[@hauleroid]

The only one on youtube who makes ad section great)

[@infidelcastrato1844]

Probably the best ad so far

[@ChristopherTradeshow]

It’s sad the scamschool isn’t doing as good, because your focus is on the modern rogue. It’s amazing tho! The modern rogue is so cool! I think you need to hand this channel off to Mac King, or someone like that. To really up lift this channel, you need to want to do it. Just love here Brian!!!

[@lassebom]

This is probably the funniest sponsored advertisement i've seen

[@ArkMantony]

domain.com owes you way more than whatever they paid for that ad

[@thecakeredux]

Wow. I "understood" the monty hall problem, I could do the calculations, I could explain it to others, but I never felt it. It never felt right, it never clicked with my intuition. BUT the reverse version made it click instantly, that's amazing. Missing the satisfaction of naturally understanding a problem has driven me crazy for years, I've come back to that almost paradox so many times and I finally feel at peace with it.

[@scamschool]

Nice!!

[@aminmotamed1693]

you have some of the best unbustable card tricks . just keep going ur AWESOME

[@SeaWasp]

Those trick shots were all the same one shot from a bunch of different angles. I'm onto you Brian

[@ottaviafassone718]

LOVE THISSS. As always scam school deserves more subscribers lyy 💕

[@fz8692]

1.9 million subscribers congrats

[@timb1986]

Top notch editing!

[@ColinBennettTaarn01]

So could you use on Deal or No Deal if you were to go on. Just curious. Same situation except hunting for 1 million.

[@DanielDemers]

The ad was a slam dunk. I actually watched the ad and enjoyed it. Was that a SuperBowl ad?

[@Bam-nu5nx]

What would happen if you accidentally flip over the ace do you restart or do you know where the jacks are

[@krismueller]

I know games like "Deal or No Deal" the concept gets much more complicated but now I'm really curious to see how this is applied at a larger scale (consecutive picks).

[@magicphil7651]

Brian, this is great. I'm a fan of your's big time. What are the odds of you doing a meet and greet in Montreal so that I could meet you in person? This would be awesome. You know for a fact that your best fans are in Canada. We Canadians were once, if not still, your number one fans.

[@NYR14477]

BEST DOMAIN COMMERCIAL EVER

[@Wh0isTh3D0ct0r]

So, how do you ensure that when you're revealing cards that you don't turn over the card that the person is looking for?

[@asmagic6143]

Brian's hair is rogue...👍👍

[@jtlerch]

Brian totally returned the sports ball to the store after the domain.com ad.

[@karl-jakobsassenroth]

How do u know where the ace is as Magician ?

[@OverWims]

It makes sense. Normal Monty Hall you pick 1/3 cards. You pick less than half, so by switching you switch your odds from 1/3 to 2/3. Now you're picking 3/5...more than half....so more chance you will pick the axe at first...simple

[@johnvictor9071]

This explanation should also help make the original easier to understand.

[@EricSherred]

I think more interesting is if you had them only pick 2 cards. Of course, it returns back to the normal Monty Hall problem at that point where you have a 60% chance of losing on your original 2. But I find that process interesting.

[@thearrogantcorndog5704]

WEDNESDAY WIZARD POWERS!!! Why yes, Ryan Bushwood... I am a sports fan... and WHY YES!!! I love balls!!!

[@TheRealAlpha2]

Is it odd if your first inclination on three card Monty is to switch already?

[@lukasgoodrich9414]

Woah I saw this on myth busters literally a few hours ago

[@PunkNDisorderlyGamer]

If you only let them pick 2 you would then switch correct?

[@Krebzonide]

This could be one of those tricks that only fool magicians. Another one is where you put a coin into your left hand then hold out both your hands and open them and the coin is in the left hand.

[@ehrichweiss]

Does Doctor Wiley have an account with ACME?

[@james10739]

Hey Brushwood I guess y'all are still working on that new location I am over in marble falls and do low voltage everything and also am pretty handy so hit me up

[@Kuikkamies]

Ha, Mega Man jokes, I love it!

[@mrWade101]

This would be like the Monty Hall problem if you had them choose 2 cards instead of 3 out of the 5

[@cortneymaitland4429]

If you ever watch the 3 card monte, as an outsider, you can see where the winner is.

[@james10739]

I was thinking the same as those guys thinking the odds before is 33% then 50% so the 60% was better than 50%

[@nienke7713]

Next step up: Do the 5 card version, but only reveal 1 from the chosen 3 and still 1 from the 2 that were left (so you have 2 from the initially chosen 3, and 1 from the initially unchosen 2 remaining closed) Then have them pick one of the three remaining closed cards

[@wheeler68]

Which results in a very slight advantage to picking the one you didn't pick before, yeah? 30% chance on either of the two picked, and 40% on the other one.

[@nienke7713]

@@wheeler68 correct, the whole set of 3 which is initially picked has a 3/5 or 60% chance, after revealing one card of them, that 60% becomes split over the two remaining cards in the set, thus making them both 30% or 1.5/5 whereas the set of 2 that was unpicked was 40% or 2/5, which can be allocated to the one remaining after the other from the set is discarded

[@RHawkeyed]

At the start it seemed you picked a card at random to reveal and it just so happened to be a jack. In that case it doesn't matter if you switch or not. The host must know what is behind the doors and follow the rule of always revealing a jack, else the switch doesn't matter.

[@Alluvian567]

Interesting, but you are going to have to do this a lot to make it work in your benefit, since 60/40 is not going to look MUCH different than 50/50 in a small sample size.

[@routannethegamer2390]

Yup, it wouldn't be all that unlikely for you to do this trick 5 times and lose it every single time. The odds are nearly similar to a roulette wheel, and I've seen black or red come up 12 times in a row before.

[@ethanpodmore]

How do you know what card's a loser and what's good when doing it for other people?

[@goatness]

The way I've always considered the original Monty Hall problem (and I have never seen anyone else explain it this way) is that you are in a casino playing against the house. You choose one out of three, and you win if that hits, and the house wins if either of the other two hits. But when the house reveals one of the losers and asks if you want to switch, what they are really asking is "do you want to become the house instead of the gambler?" We already know the house odds are 2 in 3, so of course we should want to switch.

[@goatness]

Or to put it in a more blatant way, what they are asking is "do you want these two cards instead of that one card?" Because you win if either card is the money card; it doesn't matter if one of them is a loser.

[@whyahh]

what if the number of cards to pick is 2 out 4?

[@RoderickEtheria]

1:46 You should stick with your choice. You split the choices 2/5 and 3/5 at the start. Revealing the cards from the choices shouldn't change the odds from being 2/5 vs. 3/5.

[@juhaniu6371]

my guys gonna be impressed when i show this to them, they are right and i drop my mic and be like , fuck yeah (sunglasses)

[@Lshakem]

Good video

[@mitchthomas7310]

HEADQUARTERS IN BOUND

[@acegamer7549]

I’m more confused on how you keep track of the Ace

[@magebomba318]

You got a tip for me?just the tip?haaaayooooooh!

[@moeenuddin6756]

Bright!

[@seanwing7695]

I got some scams for you how can I send them to you?

[@Prs722]

It does not even have to be with 5 cards. If you start with the original 3 and say you can take 2. Afterwards 1 of your 2 is proven to not be it and you get the opportunity to stick or switch then you have the same 2/3 chance of winning. The number of cards just changes the scale. If you want the original with 5 cards tell them to take 2 and reveal either 1 of the 3 they did not pick or the wrong 1 of theirs and 2 of the 3 they didn't pick. The number of cards that are theirs determines whether they should or shouldn't switch.

[@TwiLightVids]

Not even LeBron could play in flops like All Star Brian

[@angelemmanuelperezmuniz1474]

Is Brandon Wiley the brother if Albert Wiley from Mega Man?

[@g4all205]

Dr. Brandon Wile E. Coyote, bonafide genius

[@SuperMarksman2010]

In 30 years people are going to watch these domain.com ads and think that's actually how we would seriously advertise things...

[@stefan7848]

And if u pick 2 u would always wana switch

[@luitmeinen1902]

Scamschool: hm the vid is not 10 minutes so no extra ads... Dont care well just make another amazing ad ourselves and just dont have a 10 min ad Every other channel ever: hm the vid is 2 mins... Lets talk bullshit to fill the other 8

[@amank1250]

Haters say it’s fake

[@kiffy2634]

Wow I'm sharing this just for the ad.

[@Benehime12]

So...Domain dot com was that based on Barry Goldberg lol?

[@Benehime12]

@Brian Hopper JTP

[@tygeron3145]

But the Ace could've always ended up in the pair of two.

[@MindBoggling01]

Yes, but only 40% of the time.

[@tygeron3145]

@@MindBoggling01 You can always make sure that it sits where you want.

[@17magicchick]

Cool

[@Gaminginvader-f4h]

I think i'm gonna stop skipping the ads.

[@Sam785211578]

Coudn't you do the second trick with only three cards, letting the scammed pick two cards and showing one of the wrong cards in his pick? I figure that this way the trick will be more consistent, no? (you know 66% vs the 60% when there's 5 cards)

[@Sam785211578]

It also would work better as a follow up or as a gimmick to trick those who already know the og monty hall

[@XenithShadow]

The issue is that at 3 card if they know the monte hall problem they gonna auto switch, since it is literally the same problem except that they are playing from the perspective of the gameshow host.

[@RoderickEtheria]

If they automatically switch after they picked two of the three cards, they are more likely to lose.

[@JayQuek]

Its Simple Maths

[@connordedic6676]

Being 100% honest the add made me like this video I am going to Erwachsene the add

[@connordedic6676]

^REWATCH

[@christopher2573]

I'm touching garbage!

[@Maninawig]

I am disapointed in you Brian... Reusing an old Domain ad....

[@Sam_on_YouTube]

I like that you didn't try to throw them off when they got it right away, just "a very short episode of scam school." I also like that you published it anyway and didn't callnit a bust. Short episode, but good.

[@Caleb-zj9xi]

Sam probably shouldn't have explained the original problem

[@DubsRoss]

This possibly the best completely irrelevant adspot in the history of everything.

[@ren-pf6mr]

this is the most wierdest sponser vid skit ive ever seen

[@aaron6627]

Couldn't you probably even extend this one step farther and not show one loser for ur cards? Then they can keep their 3 or swap over to yours and stats say their 3/5 will still beat your 2/5, albeit unknown

[@jhlogue]

being told about instant credibility by guy walking in a dumpster in flip flops.

[@hansfranz8795]

Sorry, but who would not get this immediately?

[@Sam_on_YouTube]

And that's why this was a "very short episode."

[@reverendayglow]

Uh, me.

[@alperkalamanoglu4660]

Yeah, anyone knows how monty hall problem works will not switch and stay in the cards. This video is dumb. Only people who know they should switch on monty hall problem but don't know why would switch it. If you have lower chance than %50, switch. If you have more than %50, stay.

[@hansfranz8795]

@@alperkalamanoglu4660 Even people who don't know the monty hall problem wouldn't switch, since everybody should be able to realise that 3/5 is more than 2/5 ...

[@shrimatkapoor2200]

That was a pretty shi* variation tbh. Simple probability shows that the probability of getting 3 jacks is 2/5 which means that it's obviously more likely that you will have the Ace on the first round. Thus, you would stick.

[@thepersonmanguy4135]

Sooo has the Scam School intro just widdled down over the years to nothing?

[@BryceCastillo]

We've been experimenting with how to get straight into the action immediately for a few years now and yeah, this week it meant no intro.

[@Brounstein]

How about if you stick to 3 cards. The player picks 2 cards. You reveal one of the players bad cards. Should the player keep or switch?

[@hansfranz8795]

He should obviously not change.

[@Angi_Mathochist]

You screwed this up a bit, I'm afraid. In the Monty hall problem, it's extremely important that the participant knows that Monty knows where the ace is and will *always* show you a dud that you didn't pick. The way you presented it, it looked like you didn't know what was where and just happened to turn up a dud by picking one of the remaining two cards. If that was what was actually happening, that would be completely different from Monty Hall and the answer would be totally different.

[@Angi_Mathochist]

That is a nice variant, though. It took me some time to grok MH, but once you get it, the variant's answer is obvious. It could serve as a test of whether you actually really understand what's going on or not. If the variant makes the problem hard, then you probably aren't really understanding it yet. :)

[@InMyBassMent]

Sadly, this one was kinda obvious☹️. Still liked the video though

[@howtodoanything5374]

Hey Life Hacker

[@EternalFlameofHeaven]

If you (the scammer) know they (the victim) know the monty hall problem and they have selected 3 bad cards - then it may be wise to show all 3 of their cards and let them re-pick from the remaining 2 - changing the odds to 50/50 instead of 60/40 (or potentially 100/0 if you knew they would switch)

[@jasonmortimer7537]

But the odds change in the end! At the end your odds change to 50/50. So the odds are different in the end than that are in the beginning! It is a math problem that changes as the trick goes on!

[@BryceCastillo]

Jason Mortimer The odds don’t change. Think of it like this in the original: would you rather pick one card or two? And if you’d rather pick two, that means one of those two will definitely not be right. Telling you that one of those two cards won’t be right doesn’t change anything, you still picked more cards. So when you switch, you aren’t picking between one card and one card, you’re picking between one card and two cards (one of which will have to be wrong anyway).

[@jameshill2450]

The Monty Hall problem is the one example of statistics that, even though I can see that it does work, I still cannot wrap my head around WHY it works. I'm great at all sorts of mathematics, and I've read/watched several explanations, and I understand all the underlying principles, but no matter how well it's explained it just never quite makes sense to me. If you pick one of the 3 cards, then one is revealed to be wrong, every ounce of logic I can muster tells me that you now have a 50/50 chance of having the right choice whether you switch or not.

[@hansfranz8795]

If you chose *for the first time* at that point, you'd have a 50/50 chance. But since you chose when there where three cards, to of which were bad cards, your chance of selecting one of the bad cards was 67%. Therefore, the chance of the other card being a bad card is only 33%. Maybe you'll have an easier time wrapping your head around this when we increase the numbers. Imagine you can pick one card out of 100 cards, of which 99 are bad cards. Your chances of picking a bad card are 99%. 98 bad cards get eliminated. Should you change or stick to your original choice? The chance of the card you did not choose being a bad card is only 1%. The chance of your card being a bad card is 99%.

[@jameshill2450]

Wow, that's amazing ... It turns out that reading exactly the same explanation that I've seen every time this problem comes up, in exactly the same terms, actually does not help at all!

[@hansfranz8795]

@@jameshill2450 Wow, it's amazing how unfriendly a person can be towards people who try to help him. Especially if that person can't even understand third-grade math.

[@hooveyjones]

First!