Betfair trading - How To Profit with an EASY to understand example of Order Flow Trading

[@thescallytrader]

Glad to see you a looking much better these day. I hope you are over your health issues from last year. Having said that people need to be aware that if you 'follow the money' at some point all those people who backed around 4.4 are going to want to take their profits out of the market, if you watch the video at 07:46 once that £11727 gets pulled from the market there is every chance the market could fly out in the opposite direction as people look to cover positions, taking profits and minimising losses. It is not as straight forward as it looks.

[@betangeltv]

Thanks, I had a section in the video where I described that exact scenario, but edited it out to try and keep the focus on the main concept of the video.

[@thescallytrader]

@@betangeltv Bo-ing....😂

[@woody41165]

Excellent video Peter thank you so much for explaining this and of course for illustrating how easy it appears to be.

[@betangeltv]

Trading is simple, but not easy.

[@inisolation6582]

I am starting to recognise these big orders as an opportunity to trade ahead of them. I am also wary that they could be a temporary wall and if removed the market will shoot off in a particular direction. But you are right, if they crab to try and get matched as opposed to just sitting there then the goal is likely to find a match.

[@ryanharrison1384]

Great video 👍

[@betangeltv]

Thank you.

[@markspeight5409]

Deauville Legend won this race. Looks like the big gamble paid off. Not a bad day's work 18 grand on a 3.65 BSP (about 5/2) horse. Obviously some of the stake was matched above BSP. Presumably any unmated element was placed at BSP - whatever, that looks like informed money to me. It's alright for some. Great video Peter.

[@betangeltv]

He did this on a few other races and got some losers. It was an interesting week.

[@shadowwarsshadypeople6299]

I saw a similar market yesterday, around the same price point on the 2nd fav, but with 30k+ stake sitting there, and it ended up getting taken and the price drifting. I was looking at it and waiting to see what would happen. when the money started getting taken in chunks, I backed the fav which then steamed in for a bit.

[@timscratcherd]

Really good video

[@betangeltv]

Thanks, I struggle to get them out sometimes, so it's great when I hear they are appreciated.

[@mickcreedon7847]

Just starting to have ago at trading again. Purchased betangel before but couldn't get my head around trading. Made loads from match betting but accounts all limited now. I have downloaded the free version for Betdaq and am playing around with it but it does not seem to have practice mode? Can I still download the free trail again Peter. Love you videos. The ladder is reversed in this video? Cannot fully get my head around that yet as I have dyslexia.

[@betangeltv]

When you reverse a ladder, you offer to the market rather than take. So that's slightly better than normal. Betdaq's minimum stake is 1p, so there is no need for a practice mode.

[@myles1234ism]

Great video Peter. There were some situations at York where the heavy backer got wiped out by layers all at once and the price on the runner then drifted. Did you get caught out by any of those?

[@betangeltv]

I had a good week thanks to this guy. The key to note is that if the price strays well into value lay territory, it will be taken. But I didn't get caught; that's more likely if you are late onto the move. The earlier you see it, the more likely you won't get caught.

[@andrewchristie2713]

Peter, any plans to develop an app with the guardian feature built in?

[@betangeltv]

If you mean a smartphone type app, Bet Angel is just too complex to be able to do that.

[@andrewchristie2713]

@@betangeltv thought that after I posted the comment😂. Cheers Peter

[@betangeltv]

Lots of people use a VPS so they can access Bet Angel on a smartphone etc. You may want to look at that: - www.betange.com/vps/

[@Mark_Robinson_]

I'd be interested to see you make a video with a visual representation of a ladder on how order flow works, maybe some sort of mock up ladder made in excel. It still bamboozles me a bit how the money comes into the market, who's taking the price etc. I understand that if you take money like you described and if there's not enough money then the rest of your order sits and waits in the order queue. But what I don't understand fully is that if a big order comes in and wipes out loads of prices in one go and sends the price crashing in why doesn't that order wait in the queue? ie if someone came in with 5k and took £500 surely 4.5k should sit in the order queue, not take out so many prices. My trading skills are ok but but like I've said I can't seem to grasp order flow and I'd like to overcome that.

[@betangeltv]

The best way to understand order flow deeply is to set up Bet Angel so you can see short money matched vs longer money matched. That volume column to the right of prices plots the 60s volume and shows the % of total volume. That will give you a really good idea of where the money is flowing through the market and if it's drying up or not. That's the key really. I'll see if I can do a video explaining it in more detail.

[@Mark_Robinson_]

@@betangeltv thanks Peter 👍🏼

[@paulmoloney8673]

@@betangeltv good question Mark, im in a very similar position, trading skills are in a good place now and can see and feel how the market and runners interact very well, but a problem I still have is spoting when the money is drying up on a runner, is it when less and less is getting matched in that 60s window you can tell that people are not wanting to back/ lay at that price as its gone too far in either direction? Thanks for great video as always Peter 👍

[@paulmoloney8673]

Hi Peter, really enjoyed the simplicity of this type of trade, I have been trading over 12 months now and am close to the break even point but still struggling to spot when money has dried up on runner... any pointers or video recommendations. Getting lots of screen time but feel like I'm going round in circles Thanks for great videos

[@betangeltv]

You probably want to watch this video and similar - kzbin.info/www/bejne/Y32cmaSdn9KLeMk

[@freeindeed13]

Therefore if you are a gambler with a low strike rate rather than a trader - and pay a lot of commission, do you still pay the 40% charge after passing £250k profit?

[@betangeltv]

It's very unlikely.

[@barriepreecehasnowretired4779]

I've seen loads of different suggestions as to when to get into a market from 2 hours to 2 minutes. I realise it will be a little different depending on the race etc. but is there an optimum time to start looking at a market so that you give yourself enough time to make your assessment and maximize the chance of getting it right? If trading on a Saturday afternoon's racing there is not much time between races so would it be better just to concentrate on one or two meetings rather than try to cover all of them? Great videos by the way. Thanks

[@betangeltv]

I've actually written about this on the forum - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=26752

[@barriepreecehasnowretired4779]

@@betangeltv thanks

[@jwt9032]

bit of advice please Peter 🙏 how many trades or sample size would you concider a good numer to test a new laying strategy with avg odds of 3.92 ? I'm at 140 markets now and the returns seem far too good ?

[@betangeltv]

That can depend a bit on what you are doing? What sort of strategy are you following?

[@jwt9032]

@@betangeltv laying 1 2 3 or 4th favourite at value odds. Then either cash out in play or let the horse run as its a value bet ?

[@betangeltv]

If you can find value pre-off, you will make money by trading out in-play. I worked on a strategy for some time to identify value pre-off and then modified it to trade out in-play as that yields far more than a straight bet. So consider one or the other. The issue with this strategy from a testing perspective is that you will need to cut it by race type really. Because of seasonality in horse racing you will find it works better at some times than others, depending your criteria. So within a month you should have a good idea of if you really have an edge. But over the year you may see varying results. Keep an eye on that.

[@Winterone11]

Does order flow only work in horse racing

[@betangeltv]

Yes and know, you need markets driven by opinion rather than facts. Horse racing is particulary suitable. But you can apply concepts to other markets, as long as they are not overriden with an underlying aspect.

[@fairsquare5316]

Peter could you explain more about why trading is simple but not easy? Also have you ever thought that a lot of people could start doing the right things in the market at some point and most of the trading edges disappear?

[@betangeltv]

After over two decades of trading and sharing a lot of information, I've come to realise that the first point is a key element of any market. I can show two people what to do and get two different outcomes. So there is always a gap being saying, understanding and doing. It may be worth a video TBH. For me putting a £1k order into the market now is easy and relaxed as I'm confident that I know what I am doing. But the first time I did that I heart was racing. So it's, typically, that second point that stops people from being able o trade consistently. They can see somebody do something, but struggle to replicate it.

[@fairsquare5316]

@@betangeltv makes sense ... trading reminds me a little bit of being fit. Most people actually know what not to eat and to move more but they somehow still don’t it and stay overweight

[@JayJay-tm9gx]

But surely you still look at the card and race type beforehand and form an opinion before trading ??

[@betangeltv]

You do make an assessment of the market, but a lot of that goes out the window when money like this arrives.

[@JayJay-tm9gx]

Ok thank you Peter 👍🏻

[@JayJay-tm9gx]

May I also ask, how many ticks cushion do you set for the loss you’re willing to take, I try to go with around 8, is that sensible (I understand scalps are different, but in general) ? Some position sizing advice would be greatly appreciated 👍🏻

[@betangeltv]

I don't set a specific stop loss. I'm more interested in scoring my trade in terms of what I've done and why and if those reasons break down, then I exit my trade the best I can. If you did set a specific stop, it would be more down to where the price would reach a new level. Of if the market is trading in a range or trend when that breaks. I have an old video on this: - kzbin.info/www/bejne/epC7eGlni5aIjs0

[@JayJay-tm9gx]

@@betangeltv ok I’ll look, thanks again Peter you’re a star, I attended one of your courses years ago (I know many people have crossed your path over the years, but I’m the guy that said you’re on the box in my home more than Bruce Forsyth these days 😂), you’ve been a massive help, I’ll check the video out 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

[@gillyboy1566]

I have been watching all your Videos, and I am genuinely fascinated, but as a complete newbie, they make absolutely no sense to me whatsoever, I want to use bet angel, but I have no idea how to begin any advice for a wholly lost newbie with no sports knowledge at all

[@betangeltv]

That's a tricky starting position. So it will be best if you just start at complete basics. Have a look at the Trading crash course on the Academy. It's worth getting involved in some sports so that you have at least some basic understanding of what is going on.

[@xfoxuk]

Deauville Legend went onto win that race. Would have been bigger profit, if you just cashed out the initial risk , left the rest to run.

[@betangeltv]

Yes that would have been a good call, but I'm sure if I'd have left that unhedged it would have lost!

[@mattmid7012]

@@betangeltv That's an interesting point actually Peter. Do you think that bearing in mind I imagine you are generally trading on the top three in the market that if you never greened up a single trade your profit would be higher or lower? It would be an interesting video if you made a note of that on one days trading. Record the traded profit on each horse before greening up and see how the day would have turned out if relying on any of those horses to actually win the race. It would be fascinating to see over a days trading of 20-30 races.

[@betangeltv]

I did this years ago and in the very long term it averages out. But from a trading perspective, you want the profit to become outcome-independent. That allows you to grow your bank in a sensible and structured way, rather than be hostage to the outcome of a race.

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

James' nickname is Harry Hindsight. If he'd done this, if he'd done that. If my Nana had balls she'd be my Grandad.

[@chunkymonkey55555]

Very interesting. On occasion I have wondered if this situation is sometimes a set up myself. A person might back with a large amount until others back also, then plonk 11k back on the lay side and send the price back up to 4's before hedging out. Then other times I have wondered if the bet is from the stables of the particular horse who think they have value for the coming race. The problem is I don't have a crystal ball! :)

[@betangeltv]

It looked like a genuine situation where somebody was trying to get on. They were around all week.

[@chunkymonkey55555]

@@betangeltv One time I was practice trading, and a guy kept slamming on a large amount then taking it out, hoping to make it look like there was interest in the horse being backed. He did it several times but suddenly someone slammed in a large lay amount he got matched sending the price out lol.

[@betangeltv]

I always stay within the frame of the market, else you could easily get eaten by it.

[@lewiscray9052]

I'd hazard a guess that all order flow traders get out before the last 2 minutes when all logic and calculation goes out of the window and it's anyone's guess.

[@betangeltv]

You can trade that period, but it's higher risk. But most people will want to have closed their trade at that point.

[@RomanKluska-l9f]

how to trade in the long term with 1% profit per day

[@adrianmanoli1888]

At first look...back first horse(he is at top of the trading range) and lay second horse(at bottom of trading range)...but this suggest i don't know nothing 😅... because You backed second horse..🙄

[@betangeltv]

I laid it, the ladder is reversed.

[@robsting5414]

as usually this is so impractical,how many times do you see 17 k blocking the price maybe once per week . You not going to see this daily,and all the small amounts being replaced every second you can't notice and prepare yourself for price move simply because it's happening too fast I'm fact often the price moves towards the opposite way. You always simplify everything as if it's a walk in the park it's much more complicated then that and takes allot more to predict the price move know because I know allready you I know what to take on and what to let pass over the head you feed people with allot of information that is only making them lose not profit.

[@betangeltv]

Positive people find opportunties, negative ones problems. Your comments are always spectaculary negative, which makes me feel like you never be a good trader. So you may be better giving up if you can't see what I'm trying to say. I talk through all your points in the video and highlight how unusual this particular market is, but how it's really useful to understand the concept of trading order flow. I also talk about how this usually manifests itself in normal market. I can't help you anymore.

[@marcalgans3903]

it hurts me when u say it was very easy to understand...

[@andrewchristie2713]

Peter, any plans to develop an app with the guardian feature built in?