Beyond Borders: Navigating Global Upheaval with Peter Zeihan at MIC '23

In a conversation with aPriori, globally renowned geopolitical strategist #PeterZeihan predicts a significant shift from the 75-year era of globalized age. Zeihan argues that the current international structure is unraveling due to unsustainable security environments. He highlights the interconnectedness of global challenges such as the war in Ukraine, high international shipping prices, and labor shortages, portraying them as elements converging into a potential catastrophe. Emphasizing the impact of demographic shifts, Zeihan discusses the impending collapse of China within a decade and advocates for reshoring or nearshoring, particularly in the North American market, to address the looming labor shortages on a global scale.
#globalization #geopolitics

[@simonpollo]

The interviewer was great. Loved the interview.

[@v1kt0u5]

Agree!

[@richh650]

She slammed it. Extremely good interviewer!

[@louisgiokas2206]

I am a big fan of Zeihan, and have read all his books. I also follow him here on KZbin. I follow international relations and business avidly and have for decades. What strikes me especially is the statement that he makes starting at about 9:10. "The more supply chain steps you have in each individual facility the less gangly it all is" he states. Well, duh. In the 1980s GM presented this concept in their "world car" factory concept. The idea was to have their assembly plant as the center, with facilities of their suppliers attached. They even had a nice graphical representation of that. The reasons that GM, and others, were looking at this had to do with JIT manufacturing. The idea of these long supply lines didn't make sense in that context. The whole buzz in manufacturing at the time was about quality and efficiency. A good example of how these long supply lines are kind of silly was brought home to me very recently. My attorney (and friend, good to have one of those) bought a new BMW hybrid SUV. It took a while to get the car. These are assembled in the US, but parts were coming from all over and there were delays, He was given insight into what was happening which was interesting. I could go on and on about companies that have had trouble with contract manufacturers in China and the poor quality and communication. I consulted with some of those and was aware of others. Some of these were small companies, some very large ones. The issues were basically the same. Perhaps now we can go back to stressing quality in manufacturing, which requires a lot that we lose with these long supply lines, and which requires integration of functions like design engineering with manufacturing.

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

I like how peters famous now.😎

[@sidequestsally]

right?

[@vzuzukin]

I only discovered him *because* of his fame!

[@nickmccarter2395]

As much as I love his insights, I think it should be stressed that since Zeihan is a GENERALIST, he should be used as a spring board, rather than a "Nostradomus." Listen to what he says about things that have an impact on you and your industry, but then do research into that. For example, he explains that there will be a shortage of fertilizers like potash, which will cause famines. If you work in agriculture, you should study the ins and outs of fertilizer production and distribution. Look for alternatives. Look for holes in his statements.

[@gagamba9198]

@2:42 The Baby Boomers were born between the mid 1960s and the mid 1980s? I think Pete misspoke. The Boomers were born from '46 to '64. Gen X started in '65. He is right the Boomers (of '46 to '64) are retiring. The youngest Boomer turns 60 this year.

[@SirVic42]

If you replace "born" with "came of age / entered the workforce" it makes sense. Maybe he had a word substitution problem.

[@ziggyc3004]

​@@SirVic42 This is likely the case. He repeats the same thing over and over again. I've seen him do this in other instances.

[@rolandparks4318]

Thanks Gaga. I was wondering. If Boomers go til 65, them I good. Up to 85? That has to be wrong. I will check. Ttanks G.

[@jacmaclar]

Peter, the Baby Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. You were off by about 20 years.😊

[@reyes09071962]

Could you help us make sense of the future of Philippines?

[@sidequestsally]

I love PZ doing his best not to be too tall next to her, lol

[@viveviveka2651]

Peter seems to overestimate the effects of demographics. He makes the demographics out to be more absolutely determinative, and the effects more narrowly conceived than they actually are. The situation is quite a bit more complex than he makes it out to be

[@pecan11]

He’s not seeking complexity He always tries to get to basics and good overviews. Of course demographics r complex but he can’t cover all of it in this. He does lots of individual videos on specific issues and countries

[@rickfool1452]

He's a perception manager for globalists

[@AR-tl5cd]

Demographics are much harder to refute than things like technical revolutions that can mitigate other geopolitical constraints like geographical location, climate, or topography. Basically, demographics matter much more today than analysts have considered before.

[@urtyp6596]

Isn't state power fused with economic power called fashism? Cheers

[@g0679]

Fashionism. Think YSL.

[@kevinross4447]

She was infatuated with you. 😂

[@xj8713]

Good at pretending, I reckon. It wouldn't work on Peter though, he's happily married.

[@rolandparks4318]

I am infatuated with her hair stile. I love women with short hair.

[@peterbedford2610]

Ouch

[@stephenlogsdon8266]

This guy is fun to watch, but he fails at one thing. He fails to take into account the environment. The ecosystems of the world that are more fragile that humans would love to believe.

[@vzuzukin]

He's a geopolitical analyst, not an ecologist 😎

[@stephenlogsdon8266]

@@vzuzukin oh, I get it. However, it is data he’s excluding, or appears to be. As the waves caused by our interference begin to build, they too will effect geopolitics, or are already.

[@VancouverInvestor]

He's predicting general chaos. Add the climate on top of that. It still matches his thesis.

[@user-xh1fz9qp6g]

B

[@kenfrank3782]

O

[@AliceinWonderlandzz]

Peter is forecasting using 20th century demographic rules into an era where labor is decoupling from productivity. With AI we predict a massive shift to automated labor that will destroy jobs for people and so the population shortages play into the trend well. What we need are highly educated people to dominate the new technology. He's not accounting for the disruptive changes that are arriving this decade.

[@chrisreed4065]

So we'll all be a bunch of poor jobless old people who can't afford to consume the bounties of robotic productivity, robots don't consume my dude. We are nowhere near Irobot or Detroit: become human levels of robotics, automation will help with some of the demographic issues but nowhere near enough.

[@navcenter77]

AI is fast becoming a solution for a problem that no longer exists. The world as a whole is becoming a place where the population ages out, there will not be enough taxpayers to cover the cost of the retirees. If you are in your thirty's or younger your 401K or other pension plan will not provide the money for you to survive. When the cost of electricity is unsustainable the computers will be switched off and there is no magical force to run AI without electricity.

[@karunama3771]

Long story short, he's addressed this in the past, and his conclusion was essentially that even if robotics and automation advanced to the point of replacing most of the workforce, it wouldn't actually help. His take was that if you wanted to use technology to solve the problem, you'd need to combine AI/Automation/Robotics with large scale Cloning.

[@navcenter77]

​@@karunama3771 In other words a technological solution is so far off that it isn't even worth contemplating. Peter also questioned if AI became sentient would it solve the problem or just self delete itself once it is burdened with human problems and emotions

[@AR-tl5cd]

@@chrisreed4065well said

[@peterbedford2610]

Noses grow with age. Dudes in big trouble

[@kkostadinof]

Also he lies/makes up shit a lot so there is that too.

[@DrDude-fp6mr]

how could a millenial compensate for said skill shortage?

[@SuperDrake85]

What I interpret from PZ here on "skill set" since we're talking about a manufacturing conference, is that millennials, as a generation, don't have the same mechanical, manual labor skill set, specifically useful in manufacturing that previous generations did. This is definitely NOT the fault of millennials themselves. By the the time millennials came of age and were deciding on career paths to follow, the factory jobs that were left were all held by older people, many of whom were getting laid off or forced into early retirement. Any young person looking at that situation would probably think that's not a path they want to follow, especially after seeing how badly America shafted its non-college educated workforce during the deindustrialization process in 70s - 90s. I mean look at the number of older people who DID have those skills who got totally screwed during that time, tossed out on the street in their 40s or 50s having built families and middle class lives with no ability to maintain them, with a pension that was underfunded or bankrupt. Millennials looking at the world of the late 90s/early 2000s would have seen 50 year old workers with 25 years of practical mechanical/manufacturing skills that were struggling to survive on minimum wage working as a cashier at a gas station, and they would have seen 23 year olds making $100K per year working as analysists or sales reps.

[@AR-tl5cd]

@@SuperDrake85great point

[@vgcq02]

Peter Zeihan’s cult of personality 😂

[@hccdgvvfccdgn993]

We are his little zeihonists 😅

[@DieFlabbergast]

This interviewer has a voice like a buzzsaw: it makes this almost unlistenable.

[@WodiesDad]

this woman is painful to watch

[@rolandparks4318]

U Gay? (not that there is anything wrong with gay). She is smart..

[@WodiesDad]

@@rolandparks4318 🙄