BIG Changes in the Catamaran Market. We talk to the President(s)

Some catamaran boat prices are rising, and some are falling. There is a lot of uncertainty in the financial market right now. This week, we try to get a little perspective by looking at the fundamentals. Then we chat with the president of Balance Catamarans, Phil Berman, and the president of HH Catamarans, Seth Hynes, to get some insight into how inflation is affecting new boat prices.
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[@fogllama]

The O'Kelly Journalism chops on full display here. Impressive reporting, and great job of making dry figures and ratios interesting.

[@TheOKellys]

Appreciate that. Thank you

[@danharding4794]

@@TheOKellys Thanks. You answered question that I had not even thought about. GREAT JOB !

[@ianollmann9393]

Some holes though. Comparing income vs net worth is strongly distorted by billionaires, who have whatever income they want ($0 for taxes) and vast quantities of wealth. This should leave us wondering whether the US is really that resilient vs. downturns. Perhaps the yacht buyer is different though.

[@hectorcyre7664]

Here is an anecdote you might think over. It is an observation of boating on the water, not catamaran pricing (used or new), but it might have downstream effects. It is also a regional observation, i.e., the Pacific Northwest. For the first year since Covid hit, Americans were welcomed back into British Columbia this past summer. We and others returned to coastal B.C., specifically Desolation Sound, as we had for many years. We were (pleasantly) surprised that there weren't very many boats out there. Why? Over many conversations, we observed two reasons were repeatedly noted by folks who WERE up there. One: the reality of owning a boat has hit. Many people bought boats in reaction to Covid. What could be safer than boating? It offered automatic social distancing, right? Many of those buyers were inexperienced, and bought the most boat they could afford - in many cases more boat than they could afford. The first year wasn't bad. They were just getting into boating. But after two years, it became apparent that their boat had to go into the yard for maintenance. STICKER SHOCK! Who could have imagined that you might have to put in 10%, maybe even 20%, of your puchase price to maintain and modestly upgrade your boat? The answer of course is "Any Experienced Boater Could Have Foreseen and Planned for That". We have been doing this for over 40 years. Our annual budget (expectation) is that we will spend 10% of present value of the boat maintaining it. This year the bills were closer to 20%, but we added some new equipment. The second factor was the cost of operating the boat. STICKER SHOCK AGAIN! Diesel fuel in B.C. was $9/gallon this summer (not a misprint). People who bought big power boats especially gagged on $5,000 and more to fill the tanks. Their response was to reduce their cruising and run slower. A friend of ours took his 49' Riviera to SE Alaska last summer. His budget for fuel was $30,000. He exceeded it even though he cut his speed back. I predict the next reaction is going to "Well, Covid is whipped, we can get back to our normal lives. Let's sell the damn boat." That is just beginning to hit the used boat market here in the PacNW. It will explode next spring. It will hit sailboats as well as powerboats as the newbies bail out. I have several good friends who are yacht brokers. They all tell me they have gone from having too many buyers and no boats to having a lot of boats but no buyers. The price of financing a boat purchase is already killing the used boat market. It isn't going to do anything good for the new boat market. That's the news from the PacNW on this topic.

[@TheOKellys]

Thanks Hector. Really no substitute for boots-on-the-ground info. There has always been and always will be a percentage of folks who simply wash out after the first couple years. We try and keep it real on our channel, but we do know that a lot of people have been wowed by the KZbin’s and said hey honey that looks fun…then later said…yeh too much headache! Where we are on that curve, I don’t know. As Phil and Seth will tell you, their customers are typically on their second or third or fourth boat by the time they place an order…so these are people who know what they are getting into. We know from our viewers and clients that all of the well known builders have seen buyers opt out of their build slots…but with demand still so high…will this hurt builders? I don’t know. On the lower end of the market, I suspect there will be softening….for the reasons you bring up, but also simply the wealth effect of real estate if prices continue to fall. How much softening? Really, no clue there. Anyway, thank you for the feedback and info.

[@jps3b]

This is very generous information, especially for me, a soon to be new boat owner for the first time. I am that exact person. Bought a boat that I can barley afford, inexperienced, first time boat owner. I am in Los Angeles so I have a wide range of places to go without breaking the bank on fuel, but the wife and I are going to retire in two years and the Marina is 3 miles from my home. Worse comes to worse, we will rent our condo and live between our boat and our family’s vacation home in the central coast. The good news for me is I have a good public safety pension, access to a great boat mechanic who can walk me through and help me prevent mechanical issues, a place to dock the boat at least part time without having to pay, and a 457 that can cover the price of the boat if it all falls apart. I also got a 4.5 percent interest rate which right now is really good. The boat (2023 Bavaria SR41) will arrive from Germany in January. I hope we aren’t making a big mistake. We could if I wanted to, back out, but we really want to boat our way into retirement. Thank you again for the experienced outlook. Would love to take her up to the San Juan’s one of these days. One of the most beautiful regions of our country❤

[@hectorcyre7664]

@@jps3b It looks like have done your research and prep. I hope my comment won't cause you or others to have second thoughts. Nothing in our lives has been more enjoyable than our boating experiences, and we encourage anyone who asks to dive in. Just the depth first so the experience doesn't become a disaster. Your best initial exposure to the boating area between Puget Sound and SE Alaska might be a two or three-week charter. Then you can determine if it is worth bringing your new boat up the coast.

[@hectorcyre7664]

Ok

[@jps3b]

@@hectorcyre7664 appreciate the advice Sir ❤️

[@Four_Words_And_Much_More]

This is information that you generally cannot pay for. My hats off to the O'Kelly's for more of what they do so well. Clear thinking. Helpful perspectives, and solid as it is information. Thank You to both of you.

[@deweykuchle5860]

Fantastic video. No guessing, no speculation, just data, analysis, economics and science. As a relative noob who is just beginning to charter and looking to buy in the not-too-distant future this research you've put together is extremely helpful. Thanks so much for your insight and for tapping into the perspective of 2 world-class builders. I have to admit that I've been watching your videos for a while and have yet to sign on as a Patreon contributor, I will be rectifying that situation today!

[@TheOKellys]

Thank you. Appreciate the support.

[@chrismack7088]

This is quickly becoming one of my favourite channels! Love this kind of info, the info around buying your boat and the other offers you made, and the one where you dissect why you were able to get offers accepted at 20% under asking. Keep them coming! I agree that housing prices going down, and interest rates going up will likely serve to weaken demand, reducing prices. I'll likely be buying in about 12 months, and am glad I have that time to learn, research and hopefully watch prices continue to creep downwards.

[@FunHaverSD]

3m in and this is one of the better economic reviews I have seen in media. Well produced!

[@jon2016]

1/2 way through this video and just have to say WOW! Terrific, timely, and thoroughly researched. Thank you, Nick!

[@TheOKellys]

Appreciate that. Thank you

[@ericjohnson1322]

Very cool insight, love this video! Thank you, we got a tour of an HH from Seth too and very impressed with his honesty and build. We haven’t had that interaction with Balance, but have had a killer interaction with there sales team.

[@charlesfoster575]

This video was absolutely fantastic…and your beautifully aging smiling mugs together at the end puts a smile on everyone who is watching. You guys are gold. Thanks! “)

[@michaelgroh153]

A really informative video. I have personally met and discussed Phil's and Seth's design philosophy and I would say you spoke with two key people in the catamaran production industry. Great work on the financial analysis part, was impressed to see Canada up there and mentioned.

[@DougVarble]

Incredible information as we have come to expect from you guys🎉 Great to see Seth working, I miss seeing him, his wife and 3 boys sailing around the world, look forward to his return one day!

[@TheSailingFamily]

Don't worry, we will be back (on an HH) someday! :)

[@CreekRanger]

@@TheSailingFamily Seth, it is a joy to see that companies have a CEO that knows the product because he has lived it. Congratulations to H&H board for a wise decision. ❤

[@TheSailingFamily]

@@CreekRanger That Creek - as you can tell, I am enjoying it!

[@rumblechick73]

I'd love to see you do a video on what influence social media is having on more folks leaning toward boat purchases vs real estate. If youtube had been a thing when I was younger I have no doubt I'd have been living aboard for the last 40-plus years. I see a large influence on how people are more willing to take a chance to live a dream while still young and healthy enough to truly enjoy it. Not just in larger purchases but also in doing more toward living a life full of experiences vs just existing in the day-to-day ruts we tend to fall into unless something comes along to get our attention.

[@marcellacruser951]

Good talk! Lots to think about. Much love to you guys... be safe and have fun!

[@docdurdin]

Good to see you are going at this with clarity. Clarity is looking better every day. Cheers.

[@chrisd8438]

In my humble opinion, the best video you have produced (and they are all good). I very much enjoyed how you put this together - real world accounts and actual data. I learned a lot today!!!

[@dancarter482]

Thank YOU both for spending YOUR valuable time on US!

[@misi_fuz]

Great content! This one has to be one of the top vids from your channel!. Beautifully simple, with fine selection of indicators, and a clear interpretation of data/facts. Hope you don´t shy away (at least every now and then) from sharing more insights on the marine industry or the general economy for that matter. Your weather analysis and boat advice also superb!. Thanks for sharing!

[@TheOKellys]

Much appreciated! Thank you.

[@windmolenfarm8030]

Outstanding video with timely and elusive appropriateness in this volatile age of varying supply chains and interest rates/inflation. You nailed it on this one.

[@scottneedham6491]

You guys ALWAYS delivering the knowledge and wisdom. Well done and thank you for delivering honesty with big hearts👍🏽🤩

[@Alsinsin]

Very factual and offering multiple points of view. Thanks for this analysis of the market. Great job!

[@stephanieglennon1414]

Super informative! Well done guys. Sending love and best of luck. ❤️🌻

[@saberwork]

As a future boat owner (4 years to go) I've been very interested in the catamaran market and this video hit on a lot of areas of concern for me. Thanks for the effort!

[@stephenrathbone3764]

Informative, well researched and presented. Very much appreciated too. Thankyou.☺️

[@nickszotko9296]

One of the better videos I ever watched on KZbin. Nice work Nick

[@MK-gr9qz]

Very good reportage, fills a hole in the information flow regarding the acquisition of a new or used catamaran. A big thanks🤗

[@drew6116]

yes, a very solid point...that your builder be on strong financial footing and the owners have a good reputation.

[@ConstrianedVideo]

Excellent! As always - Lets look at the facts and the environment. Well done.

[@bonnieswanson8328]

So very informative. I love you guys. We are setting out on our first large adventure to the Bahamas on our 31 foot Island Packet. Thanks for all you do to keep us informed.

[@TheOKellys]

We are so excited for you guys. And a little jealous. Heaven awaits. Have a great time!

[@jamesrladd]

Great Job! Thanks for putting this out!

[@finnjauregui2790]

This is such a niche perspective on a global event, love it!

[@darrennorth7987]

Good show. Great to see some in-depth things about the boat world.

[@jstjohn04011]

Very interesting and informative! From my perspective (5-8 years until serious shopping.) I'm keeping a keen eye on today's new builds. There are some incredible boats in production right now, and I look forward to shopping for them, as second owner, when my time comes. Keep up the great work, and good luck in your search!

[@joellynparks7805]

Thanks you two. Very informative

[@markgrant1933]

Great show. I have been researching this as well. Thanks

[@DrJamesonPhD]

Um wow? Seth Hynes went from The Sailing Family just about nine months ago (last episode) and now he's the President of HH Catamarans? Holy smokes. Anyways, really good episode Nick & Meghan. I absolutely love when researchers show their data and cite their sources. Absolutely perfect. 👊🤘💯

[@RobertFullStop]

Great collaborations and intriguing last image.

[@clausgiloi6036]

I really appreciate your insights, thanks!

[@ukulelesinger]

Awesome, practical report! Thank you.

[@gregsutton2400]

my first ever sailing video was you comparing cats and mono hulls. No idea why it came up from the algorithm but 1000 sailing videos later your quality is still excellent.

[@MihneaStoian]

the best explanation of the economic situation and it comes from sailors :)

[@carolinaanthoness9428]

As always, so informative. Thanks guy's. ⛵🌏🌴⛱👙🐚📸🤿🩳🩴🥽💧🎣🐋🦈🐠☀️🇦🇺

[@edgarmuller6652]

Great show with so good news about the commodities prices coming down. 🎉😊

[@saildreamer]

Excellent, as usual, that was really helpful

[@thehindleg]

The most insightful multihull video I've watched to date. Keep mapping that data and I look forward to the next update :)

[@TheOKellys]

Thank you. Glad to provide some value.

[@miltondejesus2076]

What great questions and considerations!

[@SailingJura]

This was a very insightful episode. It was great to see Seth I have been missing the @thesailngfamily videos, what a great adventure that was!

[@TheSailingFamily]

Thanks for watching!

[@TQRosen]

@@TheSailingFamily Seth, can I get a Detroit discount on a boat?? Harhar

[@waltervanderboor]

Great information and you’ve given us food for thought to ask our ( likely) builder some serious questions about the contract

[@togetherworksemail]

Very good analysis and presentation of this complex market and difficult times.

[@motfc8]

I'm always happy to spend my valuable time, on your invaluable knowledge!🤙🏼💖🙇🏼

[@user-mj6sl9qv8j]

Great leg work and interviews (they seemed good guys) - ally your analysis chimes with me. Last few years cat's in our search scope (at the humble end) are def up c 30. Supply seems part of the problem but maybe an increase in demand as more people see you tubers making it look easy. I need to get a data scrape set up and automated on YW ( I say that every year!)

[@gregdannels1699]

Thank you for sharing this video with us! 👍😃

[@patience8884]

This was interesting. Thanks!

[@bluedog1052]

I'm not shopping for a boat, but my experience as a renter in Australia is the market says house prices are dropping but my rent keeps rising as the interest rates go up, that's in-your-face fraud right there! Love your vids guys!

[@sillyoldbastard3280]

As a homeowner in Sydney... if I was to rent my house out I'd get a rental income around 1.5% or less return (which is taxable) in my suburb and a land tax bill around $16k per year to the NSW government. So why would I bother... cheaper to leave my house vacant and pay the loan on the boat. Blame the government not the landlord.

[@monicapuccetti3310]

Also house prices in Western Australia are falling, my in laws sold on what felt like the last gasp of the hot market about 6 months ago and it took them way longer to sell than they anticipated because the turn was starting, we watch the market because that’s just what we do and the suburbs we watching are definitely slowing

[@darrennorth7987]

I have no investment properties in Sydney (yes the real estate person looked at us weird when we said we wanted to live in the house). However everything goes up and you dont rent a house to go broke.

[@johnnyhag675]

Another fantastic episode. You guys are great. Nice to see Seth. Was a big fan of his sailing channel.

[@steveturansky9031]

Loved the sailing family episodes on Archer.

[@TheSailingFamily]

@@steveturansky9031 Thanks guys!

[@thaddaeushalsmer9202]

Impressive big picture analysis Nick. Lots of variables distilled down to a very credible, well presented line of thinking on where the boat market is at and potentially going…. Now if only those variables remained the same long enough that we could take this to the bank with high confidence.😁

[@BuzzSargent]

One of the best shows on this topic anywhere. I have been following the RubyRose2 build at Seawind in VN and the various interviews with The Wynns and their HH44 cs, which I think is being made in the Philippines. The downturn has not even started yet. All we have had is the prelude to the mess coming. Have some cash and be flexible. Happy Trails

[@1992garyd]

We need more of these!

[@driesketels805]

Very interesting. Thank you!

[@christophermaneri6978]

Absolutely awesome video. Great research and highly informative....thank you.

[@baddecisionsrv8506]

That look into the industry is amazingly interesting! Thank you VERY much for your efforts on this one 👏🍻👏🍻

[@erickramer9291]

Thank you! Love your show Eric

[@gavinwehlburg8084]

Hi Guys, nice change of gears whilst being boatless and keeping entirely relevant to industry. Very well done. Kind regards Gavin

[@TheOKellys]

Thank you

[@kyles4560]

Great video. Thanks Nick. I'm tuning in for late 2024/early 2025 used market.

[@alleycat5472]

Very informative. Thank you so much. :)

[@douglascushing9199]

Nice Work ! ⛵

[@curtishyde1842]

Very nice presentation it was straightforward it was very understandable 100% simplistic in the way you explained it and it made it just absolutely intriguing to watch the entire video Until the End I did learn a few things thank you

[@pmangeri]

We went to the show for the first time, really enjoyed it.

[@nearlynativenursery8638]

Great episode guys. I am Mono hull person but truly enjoy your knowledge, insight and personal opinions on many subjects.

[@TrimaranSpirit]

Another killer video! you two are seriously awesome! Loving the content and another thing I like to keep an eye on is house hold debt levels. Great stuff and hey who knew there was more to yachting that just beaches, sunshine and palm trees :-)

[@Tomm9y]

Great video, interviews, information. Good businesses, make sound plans, monitor, update and communicate them.

[@geniexmay562]

Wow!! That has jogged me into doing a bit more research!!

[@elinicfurniture6860]

Extremely interesting and well researched, thank you! Subscribed :-)

[@exploranator]

Informative in the different approaches of two different builders. As always, it's a great time to have hard assets already, as inflation does not diminish their value.

[@donbeckham]

Awesome content.. Thanks!

[@armorguy1108]

While I might nitpick how Nick interprets the data (mostly because using 'averages of averages' means the wealth gap found in some/many/most countries gets ignored...but that isn't a conversation suitable for KZbin comments...) I think this is the best and most cogent presentation on the present situation I've seen. I genuinely appreciate the caveats and disclaimers Nick used about the data and the very clear differentiation between data and opinion that is presented. That's something many other Folks With Opinions forget to do...so, well done, sir. Well done, indeed. We are still 3-5 years out from a decision as to whether we do a catamaran or a 5th wheel RV for our retirement. This was really helpful. We shall continue to watch and react to what is happening and make our decisions when the time is right. I hope Team O'Kelly finds their next boat soon and continues their adventures!

[@TheOKellys]

Thanks for the feedback Martin. A complicated subject for sure. Very difficult to distill.

[@kennethainley5254]

Good job. Very informative.😊

[@robinv5549]

thank you for such an informative clip.

[@CarlosRuivo]

No clickbait, no bullshit, just plain interesting and serious conversation, data and information. We like that.

[@Liamwalrus]

Great vid cheers. Good to see Seth again, miss his videos as well!

[@TheSailingFamily]

🙂

[@KirkThomson]

What an excellent video. Great insights in the process.

[@Jeremy-km4dj]

Thank you so much for this video

[@MT-cc2fz]

Great Video, I like how HH does business, it seems fair. I like the partnership description. We know a little bit about Home builders, and right now they are NOT like this. It is not a good time to purchase a home from a new home builder.

[@ThoughtfulWander]

Nice video! Thanks for sharing! 👍👍

[@HopeOfJoe]

This was a fabulous episode ‼️ I believe we all needed this eye opener discussion. Thanks for all your efforts. ✨ 🌊 💨 ⛵️ 🏝 👙 🌞 ✨ 💕 ✨

[@castorscadence2113]

You are driving through Manaia in Coromandel, New Zealand, at 3:25! That place (and the Coromandel in general) is amazing!

[@bigbpdx]

Excellent insight to the process

[@tonymartinez6557]

Waiting on a boat due next year and just saw a listing for a boat manufacture going to action hence many of these questions are foremost on my mind. Thanks

[@jodymooney255]

Amazing video with facts! Can’t beat that!

[@peterpuplett539]

Great video excellent research, well done.

[@jeffrouse8098]

Thank you for the information &resurch. My purchas is set back

[@Hitsasman]

❤ thanks guys love the sense of humour

[@steveturansky9031]

Great show and very pertinent for the times. While I would love to be considering a new HH44, SW1370 or Balance 451, those are 2x-3x the budget I can put towards a boat if I'm lucky. We will not sell our primary residence. We are early 60's and at our ages (and health), we need a place on land to call home.

[@peterbailey6722]

Interesting thanks 🙏

[@jaymacpherson8167]

How am I enthralled with a cat purchase topic when I will never sail the high seas (severe sea sickness, can’t even afford a dinghy)? Well done Nick! I look forward to ALL your future work. If you go new, I vote for a Balance over an HH [minor design issues].

[@mattsantora9258]

great vid, thanks!

[@justinriley3096]

This was a Educational as --- I Loved it Man Thanks ❤️🏴‍☠️🤙🏻🤙🏻🤙🏻🤙🏻

[@reallynotyourbusiness1659]

Well Seth certainly has been there done that....seems a cool dude. Loved "Archer".......

[@Lana_Warwick]

Hi, Great vid, one of ur best, very informative, interesting the 7year wait list, yet other youtubers aren't far from delivery, & considering the wait time, builders hardly need the promotion. Weird Seawind weren't interested in taking part. How many participated in ur FB survey's would have been good, I.e. 43% of how many? Cheers!

[@michaelsamuel4159]

Amazing video!! And, two really outstanding boat builders. Seth is s good dude for sure.

[@catamaranmentor]

Great video. Another way to look at it is to write a list with two columns factors that will increase prices and beside it factors to that will decrease prices. Then see if one side of the lists is stronger or cancels out the other. Eg interest rates going up make prices go down but inflation making boats more expensive to build or refit makes prices go up. So these two factors might cancel each other out and prices might stay the same. Other factors Seasons Unemployment Share/stock prices House prices. Hurricane seasons Etc etc Great video thanks

[@TheOKellys]

A good book to look into is Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb. We can weigh factors forever, but often nonlinear factors govern outcomes.