Big Ideas 2023 | Autonomous Ride-Hail: Scaling Toward Wide-Spread Commercial Adoption

Download ARK's Big Ideas 2023 here: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2023/
Today, autonomous ride-hail services delight riders across ~15 cities
internationally and should scale into widespread commercial adoption
within the next ten years.
Autonomous technology should reduce the cost of mobility to ~12% the
average cost of human-driven ride-hail service today.
ARK’s research suggests that global autonomous ride-hail platforms will
create $14 trillion in enterprise value, based on $4 trillion in revenue during
the next five years. Listen in as Tasha Keeney, ARK Director of Investment Analysis and Institutional Strategies, explains more.
To enlighten investors on the long-term impact of innovation, we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight the technological breakthroughs evolving today and creating the potential for super-exponential growth tomorrow.
We believe that innovation is taking off now, corroborating our original research and boosting our confidence that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change. We hope you enjoy Big Ideas 2023!
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94

[@oneclickfi]

Cost of mobility will get reduced to just 12% of what we pay today in next 10 years. Innovation is taking off, and we're all along for the ride.

[@Berretotube]

Thanks Tash, always enjoy your research, insights and cheery disposition.

[@ondramlcek3174]

I love those reports 💛💛💛💛💛

[@jinghuiniu7335]

insightful!

[@corneliustoine592]

I honestly like the perspective Tasha gives on her videos where she's talking about genomics EVs and those space videos wellspoken

[@mediacafeonlinellc8728]

This is a great overview!

[@see-it-for-yourself]

great as always!

[@eliosb989]

Thanks Tasha, it makes total sense and we appreciate the amazing work !

[@JT-zb7xr]

love your research!

[@descartes451]

I like the upbeat analysis but why is it always so extreme at Ark? Eliminate 60% short haul flights? Is this not speculation delivered as analysis?

[@surfingindo]

Nice summary Tash

[@JeremyIrving1]

Great analysis

[@anthonyyoung6489]

Wow. The facts vs reality is astonishing. A new interesting view from ark. A new interacting view from the delusional side. Gonna open a short here.

[@Wooster77]

Do you think nvidia, apple or anyone else is a threat to tsla taking the lead in fsd?

[@SumitpalSingh-tj4ms]

Auto sales chart is new auto sales or overall auto sales (including resale) ?

[@speedracer609]

How can you say that the cost hasn't changed between 1950 and 2016?

[@johnyaya9225]

How will the advent of short haul battery powered air taxis (Archer, Joby, etc.) affect your thesis on short haul flights being reduced by ~60%?

[@friedrichaugusthayek3526]

AEA from Fetch ai,folks...

[@savvysocialshow7324]

People don’t seem to be factoring in the blind and partially sighted and how they will be covered by mobility grants or insurance

[@cybertrk]

Do you think there will be a significant resistance from Tesla owners to allow their car out for Robotaxi work? The people who are most inclined to let their Tesla do Robotaxi work are the people who have a Tesla and can hardly afford the payment so they're looking for additional revenue.

[@MrPUAsteel]

On average Cars are driven 5% of the time according to Cathy. Why not get some extra income while your at home or work

[@falsificationism]

Not to burst any bubbles but maybe someone can explain this. Don't all these calculations assume no mass transit or personal transit options will exist outside of cars and planes? Trains, for example, are far, far, far, FAR cheaper on a cost per mile basis because steel-on-steel is so much more efficient than rubber on tar. I don't see how you get around this and I don't see how we can get around not including things like trains and bicycles in any cost-per-mile calculation.

[@mrsmith906]

Trains: You have to get from home to the station, wait for the train then from end station you need to get where you're going. People don't live at stations and visit another station. From home, any weather, any time of day/night you swipe your phone, click the T icon, select either NOW, TEN or THIRTY and the car will collect you within a couple of minutes or ten or whenever and deliver you to your end destination, cheaply and safely. Bikes - more people use bikes on sunday mornings to exercise and show off their new Lycra suit than those who regularly use them to commute. Jane Bloggs ain't going to her friend's house in the next town in the rain on a push iron!

[@yehimstone5492]

Most people hate mass transit because of crime. Robotaxis will be safe and peaceful

[@falsificationism]

@@mrsmith906 you’re not describing anything inherent to trains. It sounds like you’ve never heard of transit oriented development patterns. This is the problem I’m trying to highlight. What’s more efficient: designing like Amsterdam or keeping the current design, but switching to EVs? It’s not even remotely close, which is why so many people get defensive when anyone brings up a better idea.

[@alex6188]

How do I go to a grocery store with a train?

[@TheDdealwis]

@@falsificationism that’s a fair point, but in most countries the infrastructure has already been built around 4 wheel vehicles. There are a lot of transit oriented developments being built in my country, but these train lines take 7-10 years to build out not to mention the time to negotiate with landowners and all the extra money corrupt officials pocket with overinflated construction contracts. After that there is the last mile problem - very few over here in our tropical climate would think of riding a bicycle for more than a kilometer. Look at countries like japan, which boast some of the most efficient public transport systems - yet they are among the largest car markets in the world. If i were to bet, i would bet on autonomous cars powered by sustainable energy being the future of transportation vs. Waiting on all governments to completely redo the infra of their respective countries.

[@descartes451]

Autonomous taxis generating 4 trillion dollars in revenue in 2027? Like in 4 years you are saying? Why not $100 billion. Or $500 billion? No, $4 trillion. Am I crazy here?

[@sundevil3640]

The more robots take the wheel the less freedom for individuals.

[@iamwoods_music]

Lower living costs = greater freedom

[@mrsmith906]

Actual Research shows that most people aren't bothered how they travel, they just want to get there safely & cheaply. It's only enthusiasts like Ford Capri drivers who enjoy the freedom of driving themselves around these days as roads are generally too congested at times when most people need to travel.

[@epac2816]

Pump Feetherem & shitcoinery rug pull season is close at hand. My Ponzi scheme coins are getting heavy! 🤑🤑🤑

[@rebelinthef.d.g.7245]

Fictional Self Driving There, fixed the title.

[@Leeds1919LUFC]

Fictional but it's out there right now... hmmm

[@rebelinthef.d.g.7245]

@@Leeds1919LUFC Where? Oh, you mean paying thousands of dollars to keep your hands on the wheel to avoid an accident?

[@Leeds1919LUFC]

@@rebelinthef.d.g.7245 did you miss the first paragraph of the video or something?