Dr Frans Cronje: Optimistic that SA economy is on brink of post-ANC rejuvenation

For over a decade, Dr Frans Cronje was SA's party pooper. The former CEO of the IRR was perceived as an arch pessimist, a man guaranteed to prick bubbles of optimism before they could inflate. He regarded himself merely as a realist, sharing the harsh truth because anything else would have been dishonest. Cronje's prescience when the country has sliding into its darkest period adds considerable weight to the credibility of his forecast of a political transformation that is set to unleash SA's undeniable potential. In this fascinating podcast, Cronje explains to Alec Hogg of Biznews how he reached his phoenix rising conclusions. Shaped by deep polling of ANC voters, a bloc now busy divorcing itself from a party it regards as useless, incompetent and corrupt. The future, he predicts, will be governance by a German or Israeli-type coalition - a unique situation for a nation which for 400 years has been subjected to a dominant, often abusive ruler.

[@jczartoryski]

This is the finest and most detailed explanation on the mindset of an ANC voter.

[@Neo_Rain146]

You haven’t the foggiest what’s going on in the mind of an ANC voter nor does he

[@sebbya8370]

@@Neo_Rain146 what do you know lol

[@Neo_Rain146]

@@sebbya8370 I know only deluded people think this way ;)

[@caesar3909]

@@Neo_Rain146 So Frans Cronje, the guy who advises billionaires & millionaires around the world about South Africa does not know what he is talking about but you do you? pffft.

[@Neo_Rain146]

@@caesar3909 Yeah he advises billionaires abroad because he told you so? Please get real. You probably believe everything CNN tells you too

[@sikhuntaka3740]

Always enjoy listening to Dr Franse Cronje, very insightful, balanced with a touch of sarcasm. His analysis is just so direct, unbiased and apolitical. He even understands energy policy and concept of base load which many don’t understand….great to hear him being positive😅

[@psdelport8893]

He’s a guy who looks at data and assumes that all South Africans are rational players. Makes a pleasant change from the usual racist assumptions and simple minded analysis we have been subjected to for decades (centuries?)

[@cobusbrits2]

Sikhu, dont think there is a bit of sarcasm. In his world of data, methods and analysis, any allowance of emotion or interjection of it would be detrimental to his findings. Remember, he dont just gives this information to interested and subcribed parties, he sells it to them for good money. Any sarcasm, or other emotion allowed, will detract from his product and make it less valuable and harder to sell.

[@michaelillingworth7946]

@@psdelport8893 It's most important that we never give up our freedoms for the so called "Greater good". Without individual liberty we will become slaves to a system where you'll be controlled like cattle. No political party dare to use the word freedom for that's what they want you to relinquish. Direct Elections is the way forward by the people for the people.

[@psdelport8893]

Can’t keep us down forever. SA has massive potential but people have to stop hating one another

[@keithnortje1720]

Also use what brains they have when voting comes around.

[@timfronimos459]

Watching from southeast Michigan, USA, I wish South Africa and all her people peace and prosperity. They deserve it.

[@fuzzykoenig6981]

Brilliant interview,.It raises the hope that South Africa will take its place back on the world's stage.

[@martinbisschoff988]

It will not. It will not be 'allowed". Smoke and mirrors anybody?

[@fullmetaltheorist]

The return of the king.

[@ChrisWilkinson100]

I think every South African eligible to vote should take the time to watch this video. Excellent.

[@ingedagte]

Frans, the 'first 15 year technocrats' were on the whole leftovers from the Nats' bureaucracy. Yes there was the window dressing of leadership changes, but as the old bureaucracy (who actually did the work, wrote the speeches and audited the financials) gradually got squeezed out the true incompetence of the new 'technocrats' became all too apparent. The real takeaway is not that the 'Mbeki-ites' were technocrats of any standing, merely that it took the ANC 15 years to rid the government of a critical mass of the old guard.

[@jamtree9746]

People with money in South Africa can afford to be optimistic. If you are on the margin believe me its a sh*thole and getting worse day by day.

[@kobusdutoitbosman6240]

…very encouraging listening to well argued and informed intellectuals grappelling positively with the precarious future of ZA, and being SO energetic about it. WONDERFUL fresh breeze…We should ALL go for it with such critically committed frames of mind to bring about that ‘well honed’ change which we believe will make the difference in a Country, a Region with ALL the potential in the World…One bar for crooks with a foothold and which need to be ousted asap! GREAT STUFF Dr F et cie!! Following with great interest and constructive support. 👊 🔥

[@MrDatsun120y]

This is my favourite political/business channel by far! I love learning through Alec and his guests. *This interviews blow my mind!!!!*

[@peacefulheart1431]

All South African races love SA....if a polical party can understand that concept & play the polical game like Rassie.... the possibilities are endless 🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦

[@glenturrell4485]

Thanks to all concerned. Very informative - much appreciated.

[@SipheDlamini]

This is what I want from analysts, backing analyses and opinions on data. 👌👏

[@lr6477]

How can you be so sure without checking the metrics and statistical raw data. But yes I hope he's right. Slow and painful as it's been watching people catch a wake up, let's hope things change.

[@emmarentiawalker2766]

Wow Dr. Cronje, you are such a star, you make me so happy to listen to your Encouraging message. Thank you. I love this country and to see it going down breaks my heart.😅

[@mazmkhulisi8979]

A very balanced and pragmatic assessment from Frans. I'm very interested in how the data is collected, the polls. One would hope that our fragments of opposition parties hear the message and begin to envision what's in the citizenship's best interests. Thanks again BN!

[@AlbertCloete]

I'm not so optimistic. Even if the ANC gets 45%. How will the DA, EFF, and ActionSA work together? They all hate each other.

[@revolution475]

@@AlbertCloete same here, I'm actually not sure what to make of it. The opposition has never seen eye to eye from day one. Look at the current situation in Gauteng 🤦, and 2024 is just around the corner. The DA has another challenge at home, the Cape Independence Movement 🤦😌. It seems we are all left with voting and hoping 🤞

[@mickgoss3590]

Alec,well done old pal, that was terrific. Can't believe Frans' transformation,but you have to give it to him, he's very persuasive. Best, look forward to your conference 👌 Mick

[@MrMaps85]

A wonderful discussion that is finally optimistic and rightfully so as if we as South African can unify and create a coalition country this would be the best for us but if I may add a spanner to the works that is if the general infrastructure and service delivery is not improved and repaired as soon as possible and returned to it’s necessary status to service the nation as a whole and not just the areas of S.A that are affluent, also if we are unable to get the 42% of South Africans under the age of 35 to work and bring them into the middle class then I fear are creating the perfect environment for a violent revolution which almost always ends in extreme blood shed and instability for a generation. What I mean to say is if we cannot solve the above issues soon and with all due haste then we may suffer the revolution prior to reaching the coalition age of S.A

[@grahamf2008]

Dr Frans Cronje is brilliant.

[@kenernstzen2407]

Dr Cronje You really give me fresh hope🤞

[@curtisbeukes2065]

This is a really excellent interview Dr Cronje and his team has been watching the political and social spectrum of the statistics and policies on South Africa this gives me Hope that many 2024 Wil see the ANC Lose election

[@geraldlekhowane8736]

Everyone wants the ANC to lose but niether the DA should take over better the EFF represents Majority

[@lr6477]

@@geraldlekhowane8736 why is the DA too competent? Eff is a party of professional agitators, they have no will to run a country. They robbed VBS blind. Your decision making skills are on par with the anc voters.

[@geraldlekhowane8736]

@@lr6477 DA represents the few.. EFF haven't run any government stop assuming how they'll perform.. South Africa Majority are blacks 50 million people they need to vote a political party that will advance their interests simple as that so FAR the big 3 don't have the interests of South Africans

[@stuartslyper1479]

Idea for Frans’s “What are people thinking” section. A survey question which asks customers to choose between: A) Having no load shedding B) Having the ANC in charge in your province “If you had to choose 1 of the above which would you choose” I suspect most people would choose to have consistent electricity in their house rather than their preferred party in government. Pragmatism eventually beats idealism

[@2centsworth479]

Ideology can only go so far Once reality hits and people go hungry and cold, people will always choose to satisfy the their physiological needs above their spiritual

[@lr6477]

@@2centsworth479 how much hungrier and colder? Ffs it's been THIRTY YEARS of their bs

[@Jitesh_Dayal]

Top class analysis. Why don't news channels invite him more to share his research.

[@ingedagte]

The true reason the ANC voter does not want the ANC to go is because it knows subconsciously it cannot compete on a merit basis for economic opportunity. Demographics and standing together despite failures is the only strength the ANC voter has. If it fragments, and merit based appointments start to happen (as opposed to forced affirmative action, quotas and the prospect of BEE), for many that will mean the loss of that university application, or that selection for a sports team, or that job application, or that promotion, or that business deal. Heck, if I was in that position I too will not change my vote.

[@realdudevision2746]

OMG this guy gets it. First time voting 2009, I was surprised how difficult it was not Voting ANC first time. As a first time voter I never understood how strong my emotional connection was. Felt like I was giving up on the black project.

[@RSVPrr]

What is the "black project"

[@realdudevision2746]

@@RSVPrr 12:51 The black project is black people being capable leaders of their own destiny (in the political/macroeconomic sense).

[@realdudevision2746]

@@RSVPrr Not voting for the ANC or a "black party" is subconsciously understood to mean you give up on blacks being able to run a capable state, but I think continuing to reward the ANC with votes even when they are no longer able to emprove our lives is harmful to them, but even more so to us.

[@RSVPrr]

@@realdudevision2746 you are racist. I don't blame you, all South Africans are racists. I am too, in a way. You are the in denial type.

[@bittereinder4594]

Thanks for being the perfect example as to why democracy is retarded.

[@natalieruss599]

I THINK I'M BLESSED BECAUSE IF NOT I WOULDN'T HAVE MET SOMEONE WHO IS AS SPECTACULAR AS EXPERT AVA LIO I THINK SHE IS THE BEST BROKER EVERYONE SHOULD BE PROUD OFF

[@mavelldenis307]

Yes I'm also a living testimony of expert mrs ava.

[@mavelldenis307]

Crypto currency and NFTs will outsmart the banking system in the nearest future serving as a global fiat. Already making over 85% money online with her.

[@marann1065]

@@mavelldenis307 Often times we just look for what to invest in and usually encounter this problem it's either the money is too huge for he/she have to invest or it could required more than expected. Cheers!!

[@kevinbrian9332]

@@marann1065 People are scared of investing because of the high rate of scammers.

[@Vivian-vp9ft]

@@kevinbrian9332 I'm from Indiana i have been an investor with ava in cryptocurrency for over 4years now.

[@adelevisser8579]

GIVE THIS MAN A BELL'S 🥃 But...there is no legacy because they don't care..about there own..just about themselves. ANC MUST GO. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. 🌍

[@cccmmm1234]

The reason there is only stage 2 to 6 load shedding is that the demand has dropped off due to manufacturing etc shutting down. If the demand was the same as three years ago the load shedding would have been stage 10 or higher.

[@gordonblues843]

Sadly, even if the ANC does implode, all the ANC cadres and politicians and ministers will have to find somewhere to go, till you end up with same shit, different name.

[@hlits6310]

I love Frans , he should be President

[@lurikaschubert5362]

What about an ANC-EFF coalition....which is a very, very real reality. Them combined would be able to take SA down within 4 years, which we cannot recover from in 20 years! ....how do we prevent that?

[@mauritzvandenheever2780]

Thank you for very interesting discussions. If CR managed to survive the Phala Phala and can keep the RET faction in check he should be re-elected as ANC President. Coming 2024 election the ANC might get between 45-50% of votes so forms coalition with few smaller parties but still dictates politics. If CR does not survive several of his supporters, sitting on fence, will jump ship and join RET faction. Coming 2024 ANC can expect 40-45% of votes and RET faction will easily form coalition with EFF and that government will break SA economy.

[@njabulov.hadebe9102]

i would love to sit and listen him increase my knowledge and overall IQ

[@mdumakhosini6128]

The is the cleanest we analysis 🌻🌻

[@TheThomas342]

Fantastic interview and I love the guy's optimism , but why is this optimism not shared by the thousands emigrating ?

[@francoforleo4971]

Excellent interview!

[@vut_zarco]

20:14 I am knit picking but this is my fav part ANC falling between 30 and 40%

[@khaya7272]

Forget it, not in 2024.

[@johnmajor9564]

Can a peaceful transfer of power happen?

[@zugzug9969]

I blame the corporations that control majority of the actual disposable money people have... these corporations actually do not create the jobs to sustain an economy... Big corps have much less administrative jobs as they have centralized head offices that employ far less workers when compared to smaller companies that actually make up much more job opportunities for the people... We need to support small-scale farmers and small businesses to generate new jobs... they create income for the people so people can have a better disposable income to further spend money... SMEs drives the economy not corporations

[@JamesJansen-h9q]

Sounds positive ❤

[@dogless132]

Thanks!

[@zoyailpatel3608]

Good evening gentlemen,I and all south Africans need this optimism right now,Oh hope is our saving grace,Thank you ,

[@tonitappous2422]

@ Zoya il Patel Are you aware of Chris Pappas? See very inspiring BizNews interviews with Mayor Chris Pappas ( 30, fluent in isiZulu) of uMngeni Municipality. The interviewer is Alec Hogg - KZbin.

[@voscowbinder9458]

Insightful

[@msezanemsezane833]

Very happy about the suggestion. The Nuclear bit is exactly what the what was suggested 6 years ago. Russian Build Operate and Transfer at their cost. SA gives them an offtake. It was only 6GW then. Let’s do the 20GW and give to everyone an equal 5GW opportunity each

[@tracytreloar6751]

Optimism is for those who look forward to Digital ID'S and government control,obviously looks forward to being happy 😊 and owning nothing.

[@caesar3909]

You tinfoil hatters are hilarious. I thought y'all wouldn't dare come back after the 5G & microchips inside the vaccine theory😂😂😂😂

[@tracytreloar6751]

@@caesar3909 Those woke pokes of stupidity 🙄 must be working judging by your comment 🙈🙉🙊.

[@dk.650]

Most people in SA own very little at present.

[@TheFunAccountant]

South Africa were very well positioned to truly became the gateway to Africa especially after the large investment in the 2010 soccer World Cup. Unfortunately it was all lost under Zuma's atrocity reign who enlarged race economy, "tax-economy" of wasteful expenditure under a continuous growing inefficient Public Sector. The hen came to roost and economic slow-down is inevitable when the State grabs the best part of human economic efficiency in the form of expanding taxes and interference in the economy through non-sensical laws. I sense that people are waking up from this distorted reality, which can only serve South Africa and Africa good.

[@andrewtaynton3402]

Dr Frans Cronje. Look at the data and make your calls based on that. And he is optimistic. If it is cold hard analysis of the data that gives him optimism I can live with that. 👍

[@vleiratfilms2020]

Excellent .. thank you. I wonder if the diverse nature of our cultures and the very different needs of the geographical and climatic regions will allow a coalition such as he describes to survive long enough to succeed even if the representatives cooperate. Would they be able to please everybody. One would hope so. 🙃

[@davidniven6385]

I have two reactions to Mr Cronje´s comments: 1/. he is describing an almost laboratory specimen example of cognitive dissonance amongst ANC supporters when he claims those supporters think the ANC is a disaster but might be a vector for change. This is certainly a very unstable situation. 2/. He is describing a possibly anarchic situation when he claims that the the future is coalition country. On the basis that bad money displaces good the field for war-lords and suchlike within that coalition lies open for the bad ´uns. And let´s not under-estimate the opportunities that will be available to those baddies.

[@garys8606]

A great reformation can only start if there is a stable electricity supply

[@matthysjuys6884]

My concern is the totally unknown. A very angry youth, radicalized & a large group of people.

[@wilsonvusimuzi1461]

Well said Dr, ANC voter votes ANC because there is no clear alternative to the ANC opposition is always not aligned to the aspiration of the voter hence the ANC will keep getting undeserved votes.

[@MalikJasson]

Refreshing to hear an intelligent, high IQ, South African speak publicly... gone are the days...

[@tonitappous2422]

@ Malik Jason Do you know of Chris Pappas? See very inspiring BizNews interviews with Mayor Chris Pappas ('30, fluent in isiZulu) of uMngeni Municipality. The interviewer is Alec Hogg- KZbin.

[@ollievw3450]

Coalition might work if they keep their eye on the ball in the areas it counts, stimulating the industry, re-building infrastructure, encouraging investment, rewarding merit and so forth. They can fight each other on the small stuff, but they need to work together on the big things. If they manage to do that there might be a chance.

[@rivi8080]

Interesting polling & analysis. Frans Cronje spoke about a lag time for the positive outcome. The previous lag time for the negative outcome was 10 years from 2007-2017. Is there a similar lag time again?

[@sambeets8210]

Come on politicians the people first

[@ingedagte]

German or Israeli type of coalition does not mean German or Israeli type of governance and competence. There are fundamental differences in the abilities of different peoples. Something these analysts refuse to acknowledge.

[@carels5158]

100%. They still.think all human human beings have the same inherent abilities.

[@sicko_the_ew]

We floated on a booming world economy that "floated everyone's boat" to begin with, so people (even voters for the opposition) could make believe the ANC was doing a great job, even though it pursued disastrous policies right out the gate. (To acknowledge that requires accepting that once upon a time you were wrong. Not so easy, but I managed, so so can you.) In a way we were unlucky to have our good economic times (that came from circumstances that have nothing to do with how we were governed) at the start of ANC rule, instead of the bad times overlapping the obvious misrule of Jacob Zuma that has forced so many people to abandon their illusions. If times had been tough, the defects of the ANC would've become blindingly obvious sooner. All that's happening is that the chickens have now come home to roost. Zuma made things worse, but e.g. a Ramaphosa government during those times would've had a negative impact on the country, too - but less, of course. Maybe not so bad as to bring people to a realization that they have been let down by leadership. This country used to be about 1/4 of an Australia, even with the destructive combined effects of apartheid (as much of it as still remained after about 1985) and the struggle. So you'd have expected that during one of the greatest booms the world has ever known that we'd have been able to become, say, 1/2 an Australia, once those restrictions were off us. We're not. We're something like 1/5 of a Australia, now. (So not an absolute disaster - but that's mainly down to the immense resilience of the country, itself). In a relative sense, we've declined. We're number 3 in Africa, for instance, if you want another relative measure against the other boats that were also floated by that boom (and upset by the crash, and such things). If the country ever stops pretending that the ANC can change itself, (and that were it not for the ANC, the benefits of the great boom would not have reached them), and then gets out there, takes a five year gamble on the opposition, and then the ANC doesn't just declare itself the 51% majority or stage a coup, then, yes, this country will rise from these ashes and fly. Right now, though, I don't see any reason to hope for that. Look at the recent municipal elections, for example. Yes, there's been a bit of a swing (and a swing can gather momentum), but after the ANC so richly earned at least a season out of the driving seat, here we are. Somebody gave the driver a bottle of vodka to counteract the effect of the cane spirits, and I don't think it's working. So down, down, down this road we go.

[@fullmetaltheorist]

I'm optimistic. The anc can't and won't renew itself there are too many within the anc who benefit from corruption. The coalition is actually very well liked in Gauteng. The accountability is each party is bringing has definitely won the voters and that will spread across the country.

[@entabeni1337]

How probable is an ANC EFF coalition for 2024?

[@jacovisser2680]

Great interview. If i may, some critique on Frans’ interpretation though. It seems to me that there is a direct correlation between voters’ behaviour and “what can i get out of this vote”. If true (Frans please confirm) what would stop 2024 ANC majority based on pure promises and increases on social spending?

[@marcusmoonstein242]

(1) Nobody believes the ANC promises anymore. (2) There's simply no money in the budget for more social spending. The government can just print the money, but that will lead to inflation which will be punished at the following elections.

[@lr6477]

I just commented the same. They're rushing through the universal basic income, the dumb voters will bite because its short term gain I their pockets. I do not think they're smart, sorry. They have no confidence in their abilities to generate income other than redistribution. Nor do they want the short term pain of sacrifice to get it.

[@bobmckay8829]

I'm persevering with highly appraised, proven; prevention measure to assist in ending the many scourges affecting our people our nation. Over the past 28 years - 1994 to present day - persevering on foot across South Africa sharing with "our Presidents to the man in the street" - yet we're still allowing the serious scourges to prevail from one generation to the next, breaking the hope, faith and dreams, weakening our people, our nation - our world.

[@TruthbBeTold]

Also there is a lot of voters that gave up because the was no change so to vote the Anc out we all need to go back and vote

[@richardwalsh4479]

Very sad to see behavior of ActionSA and DA with each other in light of this.

[@dannyarcher6370]

ActionSA is just black nationalist DA. It's the free market-friendly party for racist blacks.

[@agrid2608]

Sure. Lets not talk about racist whites in the DA. It's a black country!!! If the choice is the accusation of being racial black or racial white, then the stable option is the the capitalist party accused of being capitalist black nationalists. Stable and growing for decades to come.

[@dannyarcher6370]

@@agrid2608 Which is why Cape independence is an imperative. Btw, coloureds and Indians vote in the same proportions for the DA so your accusation of the DA being a racist white party is groundless. And don't make me laugh. There has never been a black majority country which was stable and growing for decades, capitalist or otherwise.

[@agrid2608]

​@@dannyarcher6370 Your comprehension is off. A) At issue is the stable growth of the political potential constituency of a party, not "countries". (Though since a number of countries have experienced economic growth for years too, clearly you are in the habit of making non-factual, meaningless statements.) B) The core constituency of the DA is clearly white, as are its staff & their raison d'etre & funders. In absolute terms, it has more black voters than anyone else simply because, again, it's a black country. The loss of support of the DA across the Western Cape with only 10 municipalities left shows they're losing whatever temporary support they have in WC. Except for among whites. The minority. C) Cape Independence is never going to happen. Whites are a minority of 15% there too. Indians 1%. The rest black & Coloured. So it's odd that you would think the above would be a segue to non-sequitur into the topic of Cape Independence. (And the detailed breakdown of van Onselen polling for CIAG revealed that in fact it was overwhelmingly white support for "Cape independence", even in their "800 person poll".) D) By your own logic, White people voted for ActionSA in the same proportion in the local gov election too, so your accusation of it being a racist black party must be groundless...and your original comment meaningless.

[@tonitappous2422]

@ Richard Walsh Mashaba is unfortunately putting his ego first. He is not what we thought he was. It is vital to strengthen the DA to take SA forward. The DA has a 10 year track record of honest and very capable governance. See News 24 Out of Order Municipality Index / " DA- run municipalities really are best at delivering to poor" Politicsweb/ This map shows the best and worst run municipalities in South Africa" Businesstech.

[@mrrhsmit]

Many in Russia are now kicking themselves for not participating more in their elections. I hope we don't make the same mistake. Please vote.

[@n02hbby16]

Hope you are right sir 🙏🙏

[@dannyarcher6370]

Most likely outcomes: 1. Thin ANC-majority rule 2. ANC coalition with handful of tiny parties (GOOD/ATM/AIC/PAC etc). Effectively still an ANC government. 3. ANC drops below 48% - ANC/EFF coalition 4. Hung parliament: ANC unable to form government. DA-led minority government Do any of those options look appealing?

[@farrel13sw]

4

[@stuartslyper1479]

I suspect you’ve nailed it. The exact order of probable outcomes might change slightly by the 2029 elections. Admittedly things can sometimes change more rapidly than expected. Slowly then suddenly

[@TlhakisiM]

Danny Archer can you migrate to UK or Australia? You are so cynical&have racist undertones, that trying to convince you is like pouring water on a duck. Just pack your bags and go to OR Tambo&fly away from this "miserable"country. We will fix it and get it right and please dont come back😡🤬👇💣🙏

[@deannabollo170]

Sorry but Germany is not an example. In deep trouble! Read the news.

[@davidbarnes9918]

Context.

[@cccmmm1234]

Germany is a high IQ country that is highly industrialized. SA is low IQ. Over 50% unemployment and basic things like power and water failing.

[@adelevisser8579]

But why must the people of the land that try to survive? Why must they suffer still for so long. No more !! They must put a vingerprint digital code machine in place..to make that work. For the next voters. Hope u all the best to support ☺️

[@charliepepper3039]

Outside of the catastrophic conundrums created by the ANC such as failures to provide power, lawlessness and unemployment we have to address opening up the economy to entrepreneurs of all colour and remove debilitating policies like BBEEE and employment equity. We also have to be realistic that 15% of the population cannot be taxed into oblivion to provide social initiatives for the masses.

[@lr6477]

Based on this video, and anc voter sentiment.. If the anc fast tracked the universal basic income idea they want to implement they'd win. The voters are hardly the smart thinkers he's insinuated. They'd pick free small change over long term better prospects because they have no clue how to generate income on their own.

[@charliepepper3039]

@@lr6477 I agree with you but it's a big move that will have us downgraded to junk by the ratings agencies and be challenged in court with civil action from many organizations such as Solidaritheid, Freedom under Law, Afriforum and others. They will keep it in courts as they have done with the other ludicrous moves imposed on us by the ANC such as the NHI as well as the freedom of speech charter that Zuma went for.

[@khaya7272]

What is baffling with this analysis is that it lacks our viewpoint, we, as rural people are the least serviced, but we are the overwhelming majority of the ANC voters since 1994. As long as you disregard our viewpoint, you will not make the right call about the survival of the People’s Liberation Movement.

[@lr6477]

How do you know the rural viewpoint wasn't taken into account though? He's not provided exact details as to how the poll was disseminated. I would however really like to hear your viewpoint. Why do you vote for who you vote for, what's your prediction for sa's future?

[@khaya7272]

There’s never polling of us rural people, we are always taken for granted.

[@dermotquinn]

What about Municipal Debt and corruption and the destruction of infrastructure...

[@makhevesamashele2489]

PARTIES, TELL COMMUNITY WHAT YOU WANT TO DO, STOP SAYING ANC MUST GO. YOU DO GOVERN IN LOCAL AREAS, PROVIDE THEM WITH SKILLS TO SURVIVE, PROTECT THEM AND REDUCE CRIME. THEY'LL VOTE YOU.

[@Luna-cf3op]

Time will tell.

[@pualmardon2079]

Good luck .

[@hlits6310]

the ANC could form a coalition and stay in power, unfortunately.

[@liveinwisdom3610]

Next election predictions: ANC, 30-46% ( Depending how bad they mess up in these 2 years) DA, 10-20% (Depending how well action SA does) Action SA, 5-20% EFF, 8-12% Possilbe outcomes: 1. Action SA, has unprecedented performance and becomes the second largest, and forms a coalition with DA, IFP, EFF, PA, VFF+ etc 2. DA, forms a coalition with the ANC, on stringent terms, in order to curtail Action SA, under the guise of "We will not work with the EFF". 3. ANC and EFF forms a coalition government, which is very unlikely, because Malema knows that this will be political death since ANC is a sinking ship, and they will most likely sink with them, in the 2028 election. 4, ANC scores, 43-45% and forms a coalition with a lot of small parties, such as PA, COPE, IFP, UDM etc.

[@brunoklynsmith9169]

4 is the most likely

[@Mantaray911]

The coalition model does not work, history shows that coalitions are doomed. Too much squabbling and in-fighting, i.e chaos, stagnation and gridlock are the result.

[@liveinwisdom3610]

@@Mantaray911 You do know that majority of world class democracies are ran by coalitions.

[@AlbertCloete]

The DA will probably try put their differences aside with the EFF if it means they get to govern the country. Even though they said they'll never partner with the EFF again. But then I don't have much hope for that coalition.

[@cccmmm1234]

Most likely of all those is ANC and EFF, with EFF in the kingmaker position which gives them huge powers (eg demands for EWC)

[@jennyagnew7817]

Would love to know who else is part of this small research group? Who are the other members? Thanks.

[@kennedybunga399]

These are the engines behind the voices calling for rule of law.

[@seanhammon6639]

Uhhh... Except we are not post ANC. A very unrealistic "IF" for clearly a very distant horizon.

[@vut_zarco]

28:50 Ramasofa did not solve the energy crisis

[@kenernstzen2407]

So how do we get rid of Ramapoes????

[@berealistic]

issue is not the future potential of SA, issue is... destabilization forces if ANC should lose

[@ernestinewatson4444]

It hope so.

[@gracelingirl5087]

I think if they brought back mbeki they would 🤔 do very well I guess.

[@johnmajor9564]

Can a peaceful transfer of power happen if the ANC loses its majority? I disagree with him on energy: Europe is moving its base load increasingly into renewable energy. So it might be possible for SA especially with all the sun and wind.

[@daylight5500]

Any positive news is good news.

[@Contentcreationldb]

Where can we comment on various interviews and get feedback?

[@billybaaa2871]

All his assumptions are based on the fact that the ANC will give up power democratically

[@josefigueiredo8022]

Excellent and realistic analysis. As for economic development nothing happens without energy. Cronje is right when he says that we must not waste anytime talking about energy other than base load energy. Unfortunately, the noise around alternative sources is so loud and fraudulent that precious time is lost in making the right decisions. Nuclear is the only way forward (a lesson brought home to Europe presently) , and South Africa partners in BRICS have the expertise to deliver. Forget solar power on your roof because even if you had enough, your present street transmission lines and transformers will not be able to cope with the voltages generated. We are having that experience in Australia right now with the idiots who bought Tesla cars and cannot get their chargers installed because the existing power structure from the municipalities cannot take the loads demanded. Also find out what it will cost your Body Corporate to update their power intake boxes to allow owners to have the chargers in their garages. The energy problem of South Africa cannot be derailed by pie in the sky alternative sources.

[@stevedavidson666]

The only energy problem in Europe at the moment is the disgraceful Putin war in the Ukraine. Yes, nuclear does have a part to play but your dismissal of solar shows your obvious bias. Are you involved with the nuclear industry? You sound like the same idiots still punting oil and gas.

[@tobyhewlett7588]

More nuclear plants in SA is not a good idea, even if done by foreigners. Nuclear waste is a problem that requires skilled management. To avoid spent fuel catching fire it has to be actively cooled for weeks or months before being moved to longer term storage.

[@Mantaray911]

The woke brigade might sing this self-same tune, but the reality is that there is no future without nuclear. Ask Germany, they know, they fell head first into this green trap. How are you going to power your electric vehicle if you can't even keep the house lights on? With wind turbines and solar? The sums don't add up for the Greens unfortunately.

[@revolution475]

...you make it sound as though handling nuclear waste is a new phenomenon, and we have no experience with it 😌🤦. How about handling Photovoltaic cells' that have reached their lifespan, and carbon fiber/ polymer wind turbine wings and masts, including spent batteries?

[@rthare1]

Forget about nuclular. Just think of the accidents.

[@mrtshepo4216]

Natural transition of economy and politics is taking place here soon ZA will realize that working together is the only option to make ZA GREAT AGAIN...…thanks for analytics of our status core. WOW Zuma name is not mentioned here which shows that 9 wasted years is not a myth. Does this show that Zuma's Legacy is humiliation period .

[@edjohn4590]

Delusions of grandeur

[@jeanne-annstott283]

Not nuclear - let's go geothermal and wave generated power - South Africa has a long coastline. Solar and wind are unsustainable - there are better solutions. After 20 years, solar panels become hazardous waste - solutions have to be in harmony with nature. Love the optimism!

[@ntparker4712]

Ur receipt for regime change

[@jonathanherman8686]

This was predicted before world cup...and here we r...

[@mishaguevara]

And What about the World War, started by NATO? How will the War affect South Africa?

[@cccmmm1234]

The Mbeki surplus was not all real. It was generated by skipping maintenance and development. The huge reduction in military spending helped. I would not put it down to Mbeki magic. Those technocrats are all retired anyway. They are not coming back.

[@andrewmakin8151]

‘it’s totally apolitical’ and at the same time ‘it’s purely about policy’? words with same root and essential meaning. ‘a-party-political’ perhaps.

[@robinsanders7407]

Glencore

[@jacovanheerden9920]

They might have give more people elec , water, but never worried it is going to cost the country at the end. Easy to make masses vote for you just before elections

[@lr6477]

Plus universal basic income, they keep mentioning it

[@neelsswart1659]

TE. ! Kannie wees nie