Core inflation in Canada comes in weaker than expected: instant reaction

Sal Guatieri, Director and Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets joins BNN Bloomberg, to discuss how a potential rate cut in June could affect the housing market.
Subscribe to BNN Bloomberg to watch more videos: / bnnbloomberg
Connect with BNN Bloomberg:
For the latest news visit: www.bnnbloomberg.ca
For a full video offering visit BNN Bloomberg: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video
BNN Bloomberg on Facebook: / bnnbloomberg
BNN Bloomberg on Twitter: / bnnbloomberg
BNN Bloomberg on Instagram: / bnnbloomberg
BNN Bloomberg on LinkedIn: / bnn-bloomberg
--
BNN Bloomberg is Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets.

[@hersdera]

Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy.

[@berniceburgos-]

I think I could really use more guidance to navigate the market, it is completely overwhelming, I've liquidated most of my assets and I could really use some advice on what best to invest into.

[@KarenLavia]

Your best option if you are unfamiliar with the markets is to seek advice or help from a consultant or investing coach. I know it sounds simple or generic, but talking to a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. For me, it's the best method to enter the market right now.

[@EddyAgnes-vy4kp]

please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@KarenLavia]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@ScottKindle-bk3hx]

Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.

[@pengily_emi]

I’m down $137k this year, scared my bank or brokerage will fail. Savings are dwindling due to high prices and debt

[@RockRex-lx7lg]

Government stimulus helped Americans save, but I don't expect this trend to continue.

[@SantosCliff]

Pandemic savings are gone for middle and low-income families. My trading skills need improvement.

[@Stephenrogzyyy]

Desiree Ruth Hoffman, my market strategist, says the S&P 500's drop clears a path for a rally. She’s a great resource.

[@pengily_emi]

@@Stephenrogzyyy Who is Desiree Ruth Hoffman? We need help organizing our finances for next year.

[@RockRex-lx7lg]

Plan properly or consult a seasoned professional with a good track record like Desiree.

[@GrimericaShow]

Making Canadians renegotiate their mortgages. Every five years is fucking criminal.

[@cinmanmoo]

If the banks did not do this then how would they hand out huge bonuses. Stop being so greedy and think of the Bankers kids; wouldn't you feel terrible if they had to give up private school and go to a public one like our kids or not be able to have their Whistler ski trips in the winter of summer vaca in Europe... shame on you!!

[@GrimericaShow]

@@cinmanmoo 😂

[@kalebb7170]

You technically can get 25 year term mortgages, but to offset interest rate risk the banks charge a lot more interest than 5 year terms. For instance, even at 0% interest rates nobody is getting a 2% mortgage on a 25 year term.

[@donm2067]

I want to grocery shop where they get the numbers

[@paulinebowen5170]

CPLies!!! Inflation is not 2.7% when I go to grocery store or buy gas.

[@opinionsarelike3852]

The corporations charge what people are willing to pay, and sadly when there's a rise in inflation people expect to pay more and thus are willing. They are taking advantage of the situation. The sad part about business is that they are always striving to increase profits, regardless if the method or result has a net benefit for society or not.

[@Lifeisapartydresslikeit]

It means it didn’t rise again. Of course groceries and gas is still 49% inflated lol

[@AsianSofter]

Inflation is only a rate of change. 2.7% inflation means the consumer price index is going up by 2.7% annually which is why even though inflation is slowing, prices are not going down . For prices to go down you will be looking for deflation which brings on an entirely new set of problems for the economy !

[@Matt-YT]

Try meat. Steak has become a rare treat

[@Spicy007]

2.7 is the increase in an annualized form. For prices to go down and return to what they were before, you need negative core inflation for multiple months, but they do not want that to be clear, they want 2-3% annualized inflation. Sorry to say, but the prices will not go down ever, they just will stop increasing so fast

[@catinthehat5080]

Reality will prevail, things are about to get really bad, these numbers don't reflect the stress Canadians are feeling right now !. This is the calm before the big storm !

[@UKNOWMESCP]

Yes,I try to politely express to those with their head in the clouds. It’s not a catastrophe conspiracy theory. It’s actually happening now… The word “Foreclosure”is going to be said a lot.

[@catinthehat5080]

@@UKNOWMESCP I wish I were wrong on the outlook but yes all experts are predicting that things will collapse, the consumer dept loads are going to hit consumers to there maximum and overall spending will come down bringing everything else down with it, its just a matter of time !, its simple economics 101, things are not looking good. The USA and Canada will have elections soon and typically the numbers are always manipulated to favor the leftist ideology to get re elected. The bubble will burst at some point !

[@cinmanmoo]

You guys do not see the big picture do you? The rich or even the small investor like myself are going to do awesome. Maybe think of buying stock, skip that vacation and then your stock will pay for your vacations every year after.

[@catinthehat5080]

@@cinmanmoo Yes I do and most of us do see the big picture, my comment does not reflect my own personal situation which I'm doing just fine thank you very much but I am pointing out the reality facing a lot of people hurting right now and that the SH*T is about to hit the fan !, good for you and congrats on your achievements but most people are not doing very well out there so spare us with your BULLSH*T !

[@Matt-YT]

Prices are still INCREASING!!!

[@kalebb7170]

We want prices to increase at a low and predictable level. Otherwise you get Japan with no economic growth in 35 years.

[@TicklePickleLover]

Nice B*lls*it

[@PitPwny]

The gaslighting is amazing eh? “You just don’t know how good you’ve got it”

[@lookanabeauti9386]

Lowering interest rates will be disastrous for home prices and will continue to contribute to be out of reach for first time home buyers.

[@tommcd8471]

also lowering interest rates would be a 60 cent or lower CAD.

[@bdegrds]

Homes are not out of reach for first time buyers, that's a cop out. Entitled feeling people just can't have their dream home immediately. Right now for example there is a condo for sale in Toronto for 250k. First time buyers would need about 30k to get it all in. If a person can't save that they don't deserve a home, they are lazy

[@ktefccre]

​@tommcd8471 lower cad exchange rate would be good for our exporters. Our fellow Canadians working in the manufacturing sector would benefit. It's not an entirely terrible thing. Just need moderation.

[@lino9222]

They talk and talk and say nothing

[@UKNOWMESCP]

Yeah, essentially they are “salesmen”. Old out of touch salesman.

[@miloradrabasovik7938]

Of course nothing we had inflation 20 percent for 2021 and 0.25 BoC interest. Today cocked inflation 2.7 and good chunk is going extra spending for doubled mortgage renewals, carbon tax , 10 percent higher property taxes in Toronto etc . Today the real inflation is less than 1 percent with 4 percent more population in Canada since 2021. But BoC still holds 5 percent interest with more spending on renewal of mortgages and 2 million more people. Another mortgage tax is disaster for people at least if they open the space for 40 years mortgages as UK , Australia etc

[@samcity5050]

Still significantly above 2%, but these talking heads are starting to feel the heat with colleagues losing jobs...clear bias for BoC to cut rates

[@Coldnose-qv6sn]

😂😂😂😂

[@ulak7180]

And covid vaccines are safe and effective.😂

[@cinmanmoo]

I saw an idiot in the park yesterday where he parked his convoy truck saying the same nonsense as your comment.

[@funkspinna]

​@@cinmanmooHow's that AstraZeneca been doing? LOL.

[@bdegrds]

Yes they are, at least according to every medical expert on the planet, but what do they know

[@ktefccre]

Omg i got the vaccine, and now i am dead. Sending love your way from the beyond xoxo 😘

[@cinmanmoo]

@@funkspinna it seems to be just fine, how is your therapy going?

[@tmacmac-ec2ut]

LIES LIES LIES CANADA I KNOW YOUR SMARTER THEN THAT

[@bdegrds]

Statistics are all wrong, only unfounded conspiracy theories on social media are real

[@funkspinna]

It's YOU'RE and THAN. You're not smarter than that, apparently.

[@tmacmac-ec2ut]

@@funkspinna your exactly whats wrong w canada ya goof forgot about the actual topic and goes on about bs spelling

[@Rawdiswar]

No rate cuts this year.

[@hchalz]

So, Trudeau and Freeland have been right. Canadians never had it so good.

[@kennordsfan1494]

😂

[@gilbertayala1069]

🤔🤔 😆😆😆😆😆😆 This guys are Laughable Is actually Hilarious listening to their lies...

[@tmacmac-ec2ut]

GOOD NEWS HE SAYS LOL THERE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD NEWS IN CANADA FOR YEARS THERE HAS BEEN A BLACK CLOUD OVER CANADA SINCE 2015

[@Le_Frenchy]

Speak for yourself sparky.

[@LiterallyLiteral]

You mean the huge dip of the GDP in 2014

[@tmacmac-ec2ut]

@@LiterallyLiteral SHHHHHHHHH i have had enough of you clowns

[@cinmanmoo]

@@LiterallyLiteral you do realize that Canada is #3 right now with the best GDP of the G8 and expected to rise to #2 with the best GDP in 2024 only below the US, right??

[@LiterallyLiteral]

@@cinmanmoo Don’t forget who was the party in power in ‘14. There’s people who think Pierre will magically make all the Trump style boasting come true. But the Liberals have a long way to go too. The rents are too high. The conglomerates gouged to recoup losses during the pandemic. The basics are too high. The housing supply has been neglected by every level since developers dropped out in ‘08 in droves. Everyone in the boomer bell curve is set to downsize and there is going to be alot of flux. The percentage of immigrants who came in for business and clerical positions when what is required is all the rest of the job sector to be filled. Healthcare, because so many newcomers (who use the emergency dept as their family physician) have added to already existing overloads. Taxes aren’t being allocated to the most important places and the deficit is back to 80-90’s levels compared to GDP. And too many real estate hedge funds are sitting on real estate because its returns are higher than than traditional sources of dividends. This same thing is happening across many EU countries, too

[@susanauger3758]

FJT

[@a88888888a]

Means ditto as Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services but does not include those from the food and energy sectors. Everyone I know is spending all their money on food and energy

[@enderwiggen3638]

This is a reflection on how many people are no longer able to buy the essentials they use to track inflation. They need more people to fail economically before they will lower rates. My condolences to those who starve or lose their homes … except for those who voted liberal and ndp as you chose this type of free spending which is the cause of inflation.

[@chow6248]

they are living inside a bubble

[@captainfatfoot2176]

So prices are never coming back down. They just won’t rise as quickly anymore. Allegedly. CPI is propaganda anyway

[@robertb8629]

So higher rent and higher mortgage payments are contributing to inflation..... So the current inflation they are raising the interest rates, which raises mortgage payments which also in turn raises rent for landlords who have mortgages... All while bringing in hundreds of thousands of more people who will increase housing demand even more. Yet they say they are fighting inflation?

[@kalebb7170]

If they cut rates and home prices stay the same, people have more money to spend since they aren't paying as much interest on their loans, which dives inflation in other areas. Also, if borrowing costs go down, prices for interest sensitive assets like homes and cars goes up more because people can take out a larger principle for the same monthly payment and amortization.

[@foxtrotbravo1744]

What's cornflation, is that when corn starts growing in the spring? Not sure what the BOC has to do with farming.

[@susanauger3758]

BS!!!

[@g0ooose589]

Why are so many people against the the idea that things are getting better?

[@Barr894]

The headline inflation number was .5 percent for the month. That’s 6 percent annualized. Inflation is still going up. And it’s the actual number that matters not expectations. Expectations can be wrong.

[@tommcd8471]

You know its lies when they're saying one thing but you're seeing the opposite every day at the Grocery store and gas station.

[@Jamcore2008]

The boc high interest rate on mortgages and govt immigration policy is what is causing inflation

[@booishoois309]

Please bring back Jacqueline Hansen. She was the best!

[@zion9860]

Food prices still remain high. Doesn't matter if inflation is down to 1% because corporations have already increased their prices on everything. The price we pay now at the grocery store will be the norm. We shouldn't expect to see grocery store slashing prices anytime soon.

[@josephsmith594]

I’ve certainly seen changes in the retail sector. Frequent sales from upmarket brands, everything from clothing to pots and pans. In the housing market condominiums are staying on the market longer. I was going to sell my home but have decided to just sit tight. I see people moving minutes away from their current homes just to deal with mortgage problems.

[@GrimericaShow]

Compounding 3% is good. Ok. 25% a year is no problem.

[@JessT-vg7ib]

Interest rates won't be coming down any time soon...the central bank wants mortgage holders to lock in with the higher interest rates before it comes down.

[@Barr894]

Inflation came in weak??? Including food and energy and other important costs the cpi came in at .5 percent. Annualized that’s 6 percent. It’s been strong for a number of months. Inflation is very strong and persistent. They want to take out food, energy, and other important costs that people pay for, and concentrate on the yearly number because it includes old numbers from last year. They don’t want you to look at the most recent monthly number, that show how fast and hard inflation is rising. They also want to pretend that when they cut rates, the dollar won’t tank and inflation will spike higher. Then they will continue to print money, saying it’s to help the economy meanwhile they spend recklessly and increase everyone’s taxes. It’s all a scam to push money out of the middle class.

[@coreyvanular6195]

All the prices are going up

[@Michael-pg7rv]

I feel that if the BoC lowers interest rates they will be very moderate cuts to start so that the housing market doesn't go banana's.

[@abhishek090887]

no inflation then y not u lower your mtg rates and increase your dividends

[@Danilo-jimenez]

Just keep the rates the same and revisit in 10 years 😂

[@billcarruth8122]

Well yeah, of course inflation has come down. It's pretty hard to have inflation when they've already got all our money.

[@silviu3172]

I'd be surprised if the BoC were to cut rates before fall. Inflation rate is quite above the 2% stated target.

[@d1l9o87]

nobody banks at bmo anymore

[@ahrick08]

Joke all the time. ya....ya......lower house price, lower house renting price and lower food price, we still can't see it in Vancouver BC!

[@DonnaLLoyd-lt6ot]

Try 25%

[@Will-zc8cq]

lol title says weak inflation in April… they roll on some dinosaur and this guy starts off saying wow what great numbers….. they can’t even title their videos correctly let alone call when cuts are coming… jokers

[@cinmanmoo]

Shhh don't tell anyone but low inflation numbers are Great!!

[@bdegrds]

Trudeau got railed from trolls with the high inflation, will they give him any credit for it coming down?..... No lol

[@lookabomba32]

I dont think having the core inflation rate being down to 2.6% is good for anybody. This literally means the prices for everything is going up but at a lesser inflation rate than expected. Any inflation is bad. It should be zero percent.

[@Coldnose-qv6sn]

It logically cannot be 0% Accept 2.6% or change country.

[@888Longball]

So prices continue to rise at 2.7%; hardly great news. The excellent news will be when interest rates come down. High rates are hurting too many people.

[@kennordsfan1494]

Lower rates will hurt the economy more! This will devalue the Canadian dollar even more than it has in the past year which will drive inflation up? These clowns lie the CPI is closer to 6% because all of the data isn’t used in their calculations. So how is Canada’s CPI so low when the US is under 7%? Yeah these people are just Liberal shills

[@stephuchiha1317]

Pierre for pm

[@bench3885]

Lol .. dont worry .. people still cant spend

[@DnYD999]

All they do is lie

[@laughorio9198]

JUST PURE LIES, TALKING FROM EXPERIENCE

[@YannMack]

Buy Crypto

[@zzolaman]

CPI will not take a lot of time to get to 2.0% if they start cutting rates; high rates = high mortgages; owners pass these costs on to renters and as economist said its shelter keeping inflation from coming down faster; Our economy is weak, housing market weak, costs are high. Bank of Canada should have started cutting rates in April if they weren't so easily influenced by the PM

[@Casey-qm1nd]

How is the housing market weak??? Home owners are sitting on mountains of equity. 1/3rd of Canadians own their house outright and roughly 30% rent. If anyone can handle higher rates it's the homeowners. Cuts will only make food and everything else more expensive for renters and those on fixed incomes and retirees. Low rates for too long is what caused this situation, and lowering the rates again will only make it worse. Just keep the rates higher, as asset and house prices adjust to higher rates, affordability will improve. To ask for cuts now is like asking for some of the same things that made you sick in the first place. The market and consumers were addicted to low rates and an easy monetary policy for so long that it produces weak people. If you think this is painful, you have literally seen nothing yet. Withdrawal can be painful but it is part of the cure. Many people are gaslit by mainstream media to think that cuts are a good thing.

[@kennordsfan1494]

Really? If the Bank of Canada was truly independent then rates would have started to rise around 2018/19 when the Liberals massive deficit budgets were being announced. then with Trudeau saying rates will remain low for a very long time even made inflation even worse? No the Bank of Canada has ZERO credibility now. Rents are going up because of municipal tax hikes of 7 to 11% is one factor but for regions is a major factor. So on an 1100 dollar a month rent you see 110 a month rent increase and with the latest carbon tax hike that was 17% so yeah rates wont help at this point.

[@zzolaman]

​@@Casey-qm1ndyou are conflating a market with prices. House prices are partly why the market is weak. Transactions are low and those that are selling are often below ask. You may think prices are too high still, your opinion, but the market is objectively weak as almost all agents will tell you. As for food prices, in aggregate they are only marginally affected by rates as most items are commodities. Eggs didn't increase in price because people were borrowing more and consuming more eggs. Lastly the BoCs mandate is inflation. Not asset prices. They raise rates to lower aggregate demand. That's the blunt instrument they have. It has been clear for some time our economy /GDP has been slowing dramatically while inflation has been clearly subsiding. Given economies don't turn on a dime it would have been wise to start cutting modestly earlier to gauge the impact. Instead our recent job reports have been anemic and it seems likely Tiff will be slow to react to help boost demand and get people working again.

[@zzolaman]

​@@Casey-qm1ndalso our rates are quite restrictive, no one is calling for sweeping massive 100 point cuts in one go.

[@zzolaman]

​@@kennordsfan1494not sure why you'd raise rates simply because the feds announced populist spending measures. How would that have helped? Agree BoC is losing credibility right before our eyes.

[@Reynold-Kelly]

I'm favoured $130k every 4 weeks! I now have a good house and can afford anything and also support my family

[@VeraBrandt-ln9po]

Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly? I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@Reynold-Kelly]

Yeah, since meeting expert Evelyn, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit high, with less risk.

[@Reynold-Kelly]

I will advise you stop trading on your own if you keep losing. And i don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance

[@Devocion-Souza]

She's a licensed broker here in the states.

[@WebsterVissel]

😱Sounds familiar, I have heard her names on several occasions.. And both her success stories on wall street journey!

[@Metallographer_1]

Poilievre will be beside himself with grief.

[@cinmanmoo]

Pierre Propaganda only cares abut himself.

[@rogerastorino3995]

Spraying poison on imported foods !!! All by design!!!

[@antoxa.310]

So basically actual inflation is 1.2% and the rest is just shelter inflation, driven by the high interest rate environment created by the BOC. In other words, the biggest obstacle to lowering inflation is the BOC itself as they keep the rates high! They should have been cutting rates a long time ago, this would have lowered inflation and helped people afford their homes too...

[@Casey-qm1nd]

🐑