Bond Yield Bloodbath: Are Big Rate Cuts Coming From The Fed?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

💎Get our popular bond course bundle & save $80: www.diamondnestegg.com/home#_paa2isucf 💎Bond Beginners (our foundational-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-beginners 💎Bond Masters (our intermediate-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-masters 💎And join our super-supersaver membership for regular market updates & monthly live member Q&As kzbin.info/door/nexoc6tvesvcCEzZhmI-Agjoin >>>>>>>>>> WATCH NEXT >> Our Bond Courses vs KZbin Membership | Which Is Right For You: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fmbLZXivnZWboNE >> Bond Beginners Course Sneak Peak | I-Bonds vs TIPS: kzbin.info/www/bejne/q4mzq5WgmpaaaKc >> Bond Masters Course Sneak Peak | How To Build A Bond Ladder: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pmqTenejjdNkb9U >>>>>>>>>> SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO: www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/nasdaq-100-is-in-correction-territory-with-ai-darlings-sinking www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/citi-predicts-half-point-fed-rate-cuts-in-september-november www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-08-02-2024-9c1e3b7d www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/wall-street-s-year-of-calm-snaps-as-biggest-market-saviors-flop?srnd=homepage-americas www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/ home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product www.fidelity.com/ >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Beginners: 1. Bond Basics What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works Why Invest In Bonds New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds Interest Rates & Bond Prices Current Yield & Yield To Maturity Always Remember This! Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par Different Types Of Bonds Wrap-Up 2. The Risks Of Bond Investing Seven Key Bond Risks Credit Risk Interest Rate Risk Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk Inflation Risk Liquidity Risk Currency Risk & Country Risk Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies Wrap-Up 3. US Treasuries Overview What Are US Treasuries Why Invest In Treasuries Where Can You Buy Treasuries How Are Treasuries Taxed Wrap-Up 4. Treasury Bills What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills) When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen Where Should You Buy At Auction Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction Where To Find Recent Auction Results High Rate vs Investment Rate Reopening Auctions Cash Management Bills (CMBs) Buying & Selling On Secondary Market Wrap-Up 5. Treasury Notes & Bonds What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds When Do Auctions Happen Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) Treasury Zeros (STRIPS) Wrap-Up 6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected) What Are TIPS When Do TIPS Auctions Happen Nominal vs Real Yields Negative Yields How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation Taxes On Phantom Income Secondary Market Liquidity Wrap-Up 7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected) What Are I-Bonds How Does I-Bond Interest Work I-Bonds vs TIPS The Annual I-Bond Limit Wrap-Up 8. Agency Bonds The Universe Of Bonds What Are Agency Bonds How Are Agency Bonds Taxed Treasuries vs Agencies Who Might Want To Consider Agencies Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds Wrap-Up 9. Municipal Bonds Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex What Are Municipal Bonds How Safe Are Munis How Are Munis Taxed The De Minimis Rule Social Security & Medicare Premiums Treasuries, Agencies & Munis Who Might Want To Consider Munis Wrap-Up 10. Corporate Bonds Our Bond Universe Is Complete What Are Corporate Bonds How Safe Are Corporates Corporate Bond Hierarchies Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds How Are Corporates Taxed Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc. Who Might Want To Buy Corporates Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> Here is the overview for Bond Masters: 1. Stocks vs Bonds Historical Performance Are Bonds Really Less Volatile Why Invest In Bonds Accumulation vs Decumulation Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds Wrap-Up 2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds Nominal vs Real Yields Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts Wrap-Up 3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve What Is A Bond Ladder 5 Important Bond Laddering Questions Laddering When Rates Are Rising Laddering When Rates Are Falling Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain What Is A Bullet What Is A Barbell Wrap-Up 4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early Why Hold to Maturity When To Sell Early Before Maturity Tax Implications Of Selling Early Wrap-Up 5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc. Why Buy Individual Bonds Why Buy Bond Funds Bond Fund Considerations Key Bond Fund Concepts CDs vs Treasuries Other High-Yield Investments Wrap-Up 6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age Model Portfolios In The Industry B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference How Much Do You Need To Retire? How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120 B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s) B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+) Wrap-Up 7. The Decumulation Phase What Is The Decumulation Phase? Bear Markets & Recessions What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets Decumulation Tax Considerations The 4% Rule The Bucket Strategy The Flooring Approach Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist Wrap-Up >>>>>>>>>> Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. Please note that: 1) there are questions/ comments which I will not be able to answer without fully understanding your financial, personal & other circumstances 2) we will not ask you to call us or send us money in the comments on this channel or any of our other social media accounts, so if you see comment(s) along those lines, it is most likely spam - PLEASE DO NOT ENGAGE WITH SPAMMERS OR GIVE OUT YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY

[@jesusnoriega8411]

I have been intrigued by annuities for a long time and when I try to research it I come out more confused each time. Perhaps its my own ignorance or all the negative things, often times contradictory things, we hear about annuities from knowledgeable sources. So yes, a video on annuities done in your unique teaching style will be helpful to many.

[@OffGridandOutdoors]

MYGAs are your friend. Avoid all others.

[@novaman7100]

Hard pass on all annuities.

[@Last_one_before_I_go]

For the last 6 months I've been doing 30 day T-bills, but this has convinced me to split my holdings between 30 and 60 day. The analysis and viewer posts here have been immensely helpful as a guide, Jennifer thanks for your efforts and commentary.

[@jeffreylyons5449]

I love this format, the information, the presentation, and duration.

[@Scott-xf5xb]

As an existing bond holder with a sizeable position I have my popcorn and am ready for the show!

[@johnrac3302]

@@Scott-xf5xb lol. I’m glad your squared away. I have a bit more to deploy. Guess we know who’s wearing their bathing suit as the tide goes out this time …. 🙃

[@rvnut1133]

I am not doing anything, I am staying put with all of my investments and with where they are. The key is to have a well balanced portfolio.

[@Gabber44906]

Good luck! 1929 on the way

[@lg7728]

I have been in the market since 1977, and I am staying the course.

[@rvnut1133]

Agree, and what I meant is that I am not panic selling and moving my assets around. I am however, dollar cost averaging to take advantage of the dip.

[@YdcYouTube]

Thank you for this video. I take notes while I watch your videos. I take them as seriously as a college course. Thanks for sharing your knowledge Jen!

[@DiamondNestEgg]

You're welcome Yvonne - so nice hearing this! That's why we do what we do!

[@keithmachado-pp6fv]

I got lucky and bought a couple of municipal bonds on Monday paying 4.5%. They are long dated with the first call date in 2031 so I am locked in for at least 7 years tax free. My CDs and agency bonds are all starting to be called though.

[@LogoTimeClark]

I added three treasuries, 3mo, 6mo, and 9mo to a 3mo, which is due to expire. At that time, the 3 and 6 were 5%+. I generally use the VGSH etf for treasuries, but I wanted to lock in as close to 5% with yields headed down. I'm well overweight bonds because age and will live with consequences.

[@eddenoy321]

My 5.75 % FMHLC was called earlier this year., buy it lasted for six months, so I was ok with it.

[@ZOT369]

Please do an annuity overview.

[@mr.j2776]

Earlier this year, I bought a Multi Year Guarantee Annuity (MYGA) paying 5.95% (with ROTH funds) and another one paying 5.85% (for a rollover IRA). This represents a small (and now SAFE) portion of my portfolio. I am very happy with the returns.

[@bigtoeknee11]

With rate cuts coming bond funds will be appreciating as well I DCAed AGG over last 2 years .

[@DavidLitman-ph9lu]

Funny how one person's "bond rally" is another's "bond bloodbath". I'm considering buying some TLT as a short term trade, but continue to expect that longer term we will see rates edge higher.

[@FranciscoDelValle180]

Yes, want to know more about annuities.

[@user-ms3cl9db3d]

I am interested in learning more about investing in annuities.

[@John-mk5bj]

Thinking about annuities. I read about the fees, the cost for having a beneficiary, and the insured amount. The unknown is scary. I could sure use a video.

[@jeffreyjaye6148]

Would love to learn more about Annuities please!

[@Willy12927]

Seeing how much the government is going to be borrowing I don't see how treasury rates can stay low for long.

[@johnrac3302]

@@Willy12927 I agree. However all the Central Banks work in concert. They meet in person often around the globe. It won’t take a lot to make U.S Treasury instruments the most attractive. We are not the only country to begin QE. The UK began last week and I think more will follow. I would like to think rates will be great! But I know they will find a way to sell them just over the worlds other opportunities But …. We shall see.

[@fredrickthegreat3895]

I am picking up a couple of no fee MYGAs.

[@kathyrussell1818]

I’ve been dollar cost averaging into longer term treasuries creating a ladder and income stream . We’re 64 and 66 . Bought in May again in June and once more in July . Already had a ladder of cd’s.

[@MrsChristmasCarol]

Thank you for the video. You are a calming voice in a very turbulent time.

[@petrao8669]

Auto rolled my 4-wk T-bills, and DCA a little bit into the Total Mkt Index Fund.

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Thanks for sharing Petra!

[@VivianNunez-vx4dn]

Great info! A video on annuities would be helpful. Too many kinds out there.

[@stephaniefonder224]

Thanks Jennifer! I would love to get more info on annuities, as you mentioned in your video. I do not understand them and most places I've read about them say that they are BAD investments - that one is better off investing on their own. So I'm intrigued and suprised at that recommendation and would like to understand better. I've watched a ton of your videos and you've taught me so much already!

[@DanEmmons]

Best increase in bond portfolio value all year

[@ScooterOnHisWay2024]

Nobody does this better than Jennifer!

[@larryzezula9847]

Please do a presentation on your thoughts regarding annuity purchases at this time

[@pdureska7814]

I'm staying in with my treasuries. I've rotated money into REITS over the past year. My yields in my 6 individual REITS (all different sectors) yield between 3.7 to 6%. I've seen people talk about one way the US can finance the debt is to offer Treasuries tax free and while they lose tax money, they can finance the debt thru US citizens buying more treasuries since foreign entities arent buying our treasuries and i think we end up being a win for us. I've seen two financial experts tout this plan as an option (and obviously decrease government spending). Again safety is important. Equities even with the little pull back are over valued for the most part in my opinion. I wish i had a crystal ball to know exactly what to do but at least i have a plan. Fed needs to be careful. cut too much too soon and perhaps inflation reignites. I still stand by my theory that a lot of the inflation was due to Biden trashing our energy sector early on. I am not against Green energy but i believe in choice and the green energy not ready for primetime. . Energy touches everything we make, grow, distribute, sell etc. Thats why i believe things remain expensive with little rollback.

[@angelaharkey3026]

What Reits are you invested in? Please

[@millrat69]

As of 8:05PM ET today (8/5) I am dying to hear comments from you regarding todays sell off. I have been in various term T-Bills for over the past year with idle cash, and I am considering putting more in this month (Aug) as I have 4 bills maturing before 8/31. I am 62 and retired, so I want to be cautious. Thanks for your post!

[@Nicole-zv7ee]

Yes, please, please, please do some tutorial videos about ANNUITIES! Thank you.

[@alixvoncramon4525]

Would like to know more about annuities.

[@darrylr.4983]

I have a 20yr Gov bond in my IRA with Schwab. Maturity is 2043. The day the stock market plunged the theoretical value jumped about 5% in anticipation of an interest rate cut.

[@ChrisLeDonne]

Would like very much to hear your take on annuities. I have little knowledge of these but hear that there are a lot of hidden fees.

[@DavidLitman-ph9lu]

I'm also curious about annuities. Aren't annuities really a type of insurance product with high fees and high expense ratios? My wife was sold one many years ago and is not impressed by its slow growth over the years. Can you get out of them without excessive fees? What happens if the insurance company goes out of business? Do you own any?

[@Andluth]

I would like to know about annuities. Thanks

[@FunTimePlaying]

This year I've mainly bought 3-4 month t-bills, the last of which mature this month. During July I purchased 6 month t-bills for Jan 2025 maturities because I was concerned about falling rates, wanted to take advantage of 5%+ rates as long as they lasted and start building an income stream for 2025. So, I have nothing maturing Sep-Dec, which is ok. Now to decide what to do with the money from t-bills maturing in Aug along with cash in money market mutual funds. It may be time to get back into some stocks that pay a decent dividend yield and I feel have a strong enough business and cash flow to maintain the dividend going forward.

[@gregh7457]

black monday in 1987 the nikkei was down 15%. If you add up the last 2 trading days, the nikkei is down 20%

[@user-zl4yn1ql5y]

I have no idea what annuities are and would like to know.

[@ccos3302]

I would love to learn more about annuities, especially immediate income annuities. Thanks, Jennifer!

[@dualmass]

This market correction is right on time. Have cash ready for 2025 lows

[@geoffgordon9569]

Stretching my bond ladder from 6 months to 9 months. Trying to earn a little more interest as rates will probably go lower.

[@tb100020161]

I love your content, please more on ANNUITIES

[@lindseybowen5747]

Please do a video on annuities!

[@pauljoseph2400]

I just bought my first tranche of 15 yr FFCB Agency bonds through Fidelity. We shall see how long it is before they are called. 😀

[@WScott-gd2mj]

Both of my corporate bond funds were up nicely last week.

[@Tony-dx3eo]

Big rate cuts will translate to increased inflation aka stagflation.

[@IndiratempestST]

I’d love to hear more about annuities! As always, thanks for the info!

[@DeanTaylor-k6d]

please do a annuity video. all your info is excellent!

[@user-fr3hg3vx3t]

Do you have a prediction for the I Bond rate in November? Or is it too early to predict?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

It’s a bit early still but I can see what we can pull together after the next inflation report.

[@XG9769]

Yes, an annuity video please

[@user-sy8mn3dg6l]

Great video as always Jennifer. Can you please do a video on annuities. Especially the MYGA to SPIA approach. Also MVA's as they pertain to liquidity as well tax ramifications in retirement will the possible effect on SS and Medicare benefits. Thanks so much for what you do !

[@Xfactor926]

Awesome video as always. Based on my fixed income profile thinking of adding I-Bonds (stuff those gift boxes) thus getting a 1.3% fixed rate (which was set when bond rate were higher) for some additional protection if a 1.25% rate cut or more causes inflation to rear its ugly head again - wait and see. Other cash T-Bills while over 5% or equities on correction - tough call. Need to polish my crystal ball it’s foggy right now.

[@jdgolf499]

What this tells me is that rhe experts haven't got any more clue than I do! Too bad they can't be held accountable when markets move on predictions from these "experts," that turn out to be way off!

[@ATHJD07]

The 4 wk bills are still best for me but I'm using them like HYSAs or money markets, but at considerable tax advantage. I've got my retirement income covered by other investments, including the fixed index annuity I'm buying as an in-service roll over from my TSP G fund. I am very happy about the rate I locked in and last week's correction in equities bc it's indexed to the SP500. All in all, you take the good with the bad. My T bills will likely earn less, but by the time I retire, the mortgage rate on my retirement dream home should be better than it is now .

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Glad the fixed index annuity worked out Anne!

[@OffGridandOutdoors]

Yes more on Annuities and MYGAs. I understand then better than bonds, so I've laddered MYGAs for the next 6 years with up to six point two percent.

[@anzatzi]

'daily treasury par yield curve rates' link not found in notes. thank you!

[@brucecodding3415]

Yes, I would like to see you review annuities

[@yiukit09]

Would like annuity insights

[@cbbcbb6803]

Let's say someone just made up their mind yesterday to start investing. They only have a $10k savings account at a regular bank and $5k in checking. Where to start investing?

[@Very_Concerned-Citizen]

I'm in my 60's. I'm in the 'Other' group. Annuity.

[@eddenoy321]

@Very_Concerned-Citizen Annuities have a good safety history.

[@BorisLikesBonds]

In the grand scheme of things, I think this is blip. The overnight rate will probably be cut but I don't see anything more 25 basis points. Doing more would be very aggressive and the Fed doesn't want to be stimulative or repressive. The goal is to be neutral. That said, I signed up for another 52 Wk T-Bill for my ladder and keeping my cash reserves in a 4 Wk T-Bill. We carry on. 👍

[@DiamondNestEgg]

We carry on - I like that :-)

[@daisyreinacher5022]

Myga annuities….Gainbridge…6.15%

[@MrHacross]

Yes, annuities please.

[@markdemay2177]

I feel the fed manipulates the numbers!

[@johnemanuele8695]

My 20 year FHLB 6% bond pays out it's first dividend on Aug 8th..what are the chances it will be called soon after?

[@CB-jt8vk]

Annuities please

[@JosephDickson]

Rate cut or not its still better than what my credit union will provide. 😉

[@brucesmith9144]

Or the 0.02% my bank is giving. That’s why there’s Treasury Direct.

[@SpaceClick]

Especially if you live in a state that has a state income tax, since you don't pay state income tax on US Treasuries.

[@shadowgov9721]

Is buying TLT now or TLTW a good idea or is it too late

[@michaelminauro4180]

Good stuff

[@oldtroller2861]

I am considering Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHQ) for some income and possible capital appreciation. What do you think?

[@carstars]

Wait until Monday morning.

[@kersi-sandiego6036]

I'm staying put.

[@Onpointe41]

If bond rates go down, would that make Schwab more or less likely to go Bankrupt?

[@DiamondNestEgg]

Hi there - The market has suggested that if rates go down, Schwab should benefit as this will reduce their paper losses on their long-dated fixed income holdings.

[@onpointe6404]

Thank you.

[@sawutley3368]

Annuity info please!

[@fire1777]

Recession finally here. Might go back to traditional 60/40. Goobermint better get this deficit under control soon.

[@mtz9939]

So far, Powel doesn't seem to be taking serious a potential recession .

[@deanrotering879]

He is but inflation is his primary focus up until now. That’s why no rate cuts yet. Rock and hard place situation.

[@antareschen4451]

Why would anyone buy the yield when everyone knows the fed rate cut is coming? Doesn’t make sense

[@YosemiteSam01]

How about CD's?

[@variousstuff6469]

They yield only slightly more than Treasuries and they are subject to state income tax.

[@SpaceClick]

@@variousstuff6469 Only subject to state income tax on interest earned if your state has a state income tax, of course, so if you live in a state that does not have a state income tax, this is not a factor for you.

[@YosemiteSam01]

@@variousstuff6469 Thanks.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

If rates go back to NIRP, we get hyperinflation

[@TheSailor5757]

Need a course on annuities

[@dennismorton1128]

dca until i retire

[@choosiewhoo1700]

Yes 😅😅😅

[@Kingfisher62]

Move to bond funds

[@deanrotering879]

I did in March and had thought I made a mistake but I’m smiling now

[@jaymeez]

Brokered CD’s?

[@brucesmith9144]

If you trust banks.

[@jaymeez]

@@brucesmith9144 I trust them up to the FDIC Limit

[@eddenoy321]

@jaymeez The key word is 'callable'. Always check that. Don't go over your FDIC insured limit in any single bank even when using brokered CD's.

[@daveycrocker4466]

How bout money market funds?

[@joehook9635]

Why not treasuries?

[@gregbrauch]

People who own bonds are getting rich

[@keithmachado-pp6fv]

Not all bond holders. Bond funds yes and long term bonds are up on paper, but anything trading above par will need to be sold before maturity or they will eventually drop back to par. If you sell to lock in the gain you need to reinvest either at lower rates or move to a different asset class.

[@shabpnd481]

Yup TMF Stonk up more then 25% in 1 month

[@deanrotering879]

I’m not getting rich but it is canceling out my equity paper losses. KZbinrs hate bonds until now lol.

[@hollygardner5076]

I would like to know more about annuities.