Breeders' Cup Classic 2024 Analysis: City of Troy, Fierceness, Forever Young, Sierra Leone, Newgate

[@TEXASCATGARDENER]

You nailed it Jarod! Thanks 👍 I played 1,9,11 boxed. 9 times.

[@JarrodHorak]

Great. Happy to hear about your BC Classic score!

[@maryabreu6924]

Congratulations!

[@JarrodHorak]

Thanks, Very happy that he was able to break through with such a big effort in the BC Classic.

[@donovanhoilett268]

MUCH RESPECT WITH YOUR SIERE LEONE TOP CHOICE PICK JARROD !!!

[@JarrodHorak]

Thanks. Everything worked out for him on Saturday and he was able to show what he can do when he gets pace to chase.

[@paulv7554]

I was happy to see those fractions and we got him home this time! Hooray! It would have been better for me if Forever Young finished 2nd, but Fierceness ran a great race with those fractions. So glad to see Sierra Leone get it done in the Classic.

[@JarrodHorak]

This was the performance we were waiting for since the Derby. It was frustrating to see him catch speed favoring surfaces and have the race flow against him in all of his Saratoga starts since the Derby. All he needed was a clean outside trip and some pace help, and it all came together in the BC Classic.

[@ValePlace]

Me too. As soon as i saw that Soul of Angel horse with Van Dyke close 15 lengths in the 4th race, I knew S/L had a very good shot w Prat. Like Jarod, I too became married to this horse, he owed me sooo much. Emptied my pocketbook on him to win. 😊

[@JarrodHorak]

@@ValePlace Happy to hear about your BC Classic win. I was also happy to see closers like Soul of an Angel have success in the BC. That was a good sign for Sierra Leone.

[@ValePlace]

​@@JarrodHoraki had the best BC outcome since Country House. Actually handicapped & had the winners in all but one race Sat. Fri was the bust day. Today I am getting nice new flooring professionally installed thru my home. Next yr will nix the Japanese runners trying to include in exotics as well as skip all the juvenile races.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@ValePlace I had a bigger day on Friday and a solid day on Saturday. Same thing last year. Japanese runners did not perform up to expectations. The Turf was their best result. They will probably bring less horses and make a bigger impact next year.

[@evansib4130]

My biggest win to date, exacta boxed Sierra Leone and fierceness. Was already looking to take the two American horses as not favorites saw you make SL your top choice and that was all the confidence I needed to make it the biggest return yet.

[@JarrodHorak]

Nice job. Congrats on your BC Classic score.

[@kathleenLaRosa-yi1sz]

Sierra Leone finally

[@danrupp4694]

Well I was at the wedding may as well stay for the funeral and bet him one more time too Jarrod. He's is a closer there is plenty of speed.

[@JarrodHorak]

Since the Derby, Sierra Leone's races looked like they had pace to chase on paper, but it did not play out that way in real time. You would think the early speed horses will show up this time with $7 million on the line, and I will take my chances at 12-1.

[@imilliemedina666]

Jaybird does it again! Congrats, hope you cleaned up.

[@JarrodHorak]

Thanks. I made some money on Sierra Leone. I had the trifecta and 2 doubles, 2 Pick 3's, and a Pick 4, and the Distaff-Classic double cold with Thorpedo Anna.

[@michaelboyle5805]

I think we are about to witness greatness, ,COT is a beast, if he doesn't get behind horses easily, his finishing will make very to pass down the straight. He always runs through the line, I really expect an exceptional performance. Come on COT 😊

[@JarrodHorak]

I would like to see City of Troy run a quality race. I will not bet him at low odds but would not be surprised if he won.

[@imilliemedina666]

He's a complete unknown running against Next, Fierceness.and a half dozen other great horses. He might very well win, but I can't see taking a chance at that low number.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@imilliemedina666 The price is the main knock. This is a competitive race and there is a decent chance that the winner will not be one of the top favorites.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

Its very could that they entered him, but according to expert onlookers, he looks too spindley and weak.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

@@imilliemedina666 Agreed. Just can't take that chance on so many unknowns. Well, I mean 1 HUGE unknown actually. Will he run well on dirt?

[@johnmoeller2480]

Forever Young for the WIN 🏆

[@JarrodHorak]

Forever Young is one of several horses with a realistic shot at winning the BC Classic. He is my second choice. Good luck with your BC Classic wagers.

[@djordjelezajic8435]

Even if you do not include the Japanese horses, there is plenty of contenders between the obvious two ( City of Troy/ Fierceness).I like Sierra Leone, who ran a race twice as challenging as the eventual Kentucky Derby winner Mystic Dan on the rail by a moustache. I know nothing about the #2 and #14 horse( Next), but WHAT IF an even number pp horse wins instead of all the contenders lined up in odd number pp starting with Forever Young ##1, City of Troy#3, Fierceness #9 and Sierra Leone #11.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

This year about 4-5 horses have ran races that in theory, show they are good enough to win the Classic. FY, Fierceness, COT, AR, SL. Sooooo hard to handicap the BCC this year. I'm not going to do exotics this time around. Depending on how their odds are 30-60 minutes before the race, I'll do a $25 win on Arthur's Ride, $50 place on Highland Falls, $75 show on Next. I will replace AR or HF with SL if SL's odds are somehow longer just before post time. Basically, I'm betting the odds. I think City of Troy is a throw out. If I had no money on the race, I'd be cheering for COT...just because his connections are taking a risk and doing something great for horse racing by having him test his meddle on dirt. I don't think he'll hit the board. That's not a knock against him. He' s a turf horse. I won't hold it against him to lose, just like I wouldn't hold it against a shark if he lost to a lion on land.

[@JarrodHorak]

It seems as though you are approaching the BC Classic the right way. A handful of runners are capable of winning the race depending on how it unfolds in real time. I am with you regarding City of Troy. I am glad that they are taking a shot and would like to see him do well, but he is tough to back as the favorite. Good luck with all of your BC wagers this year.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

@@JarrodHorak Thank you and good luck to you also!

[@karltbui]

Great analysis

[@karltbui]

I'll be there on Saturday. I'll look at COT myself but it'll take a lot for me to take him as he might even be shorter than 5/2. I already had 15-1 on FY and 10-1 on SL. I'll probably add a place or show for both runners if odds are the same. Then I'll do 1/3 bet on W-P-S on Arthur's Ride. I'll put a little on Pyrenees as my longshot. Exacta box with FY +SL+AR. Good luck. BTW, there's a chance of rain. It has been cloudy here in SoCal.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

@@karltbui Here's my post time odds prediction: Fierceness 5/2, Forever Young 7/2, COT 4-1 or 9/2.

[@markciessau7192]

Great title to the video. Sierra leone just couldnt be my top pick. he didnt come close to 12-1. he was 6.9 -1, fourth choice. For me he was third as i threw out city of troy altogether being all turf with gallileo in blood lines. blinkers on the sotogke horse was a clue, one of the fastest classics in history up front. great race. I picked fierceness for my wps and he did well to hold on for second after being close to a hot pace. Had the four in title(fiercness, forever young, sierra, newgate) boxed for ex, tri, super. Played to form despite some hype of others. Great job again Jarrod, weeding through the also rans. without the hot pace fierceness might of held on. The owners after the race said they are not retiring. Id like to see a rematch of the top four from this race. great job as always!

[@JarrodHorak]

I just threw those names in the title because they were the most popular horses in the race and helped get my video noticed by more people. 6-1 was still nice value on Sierra Leone if you compare him to the two favorites, Fierceness (5-2) and Forever Young (4-1). He was just as fast and classy as those two horses and was a much better price. All he needed was a clean outside trip and some pace to chase, and he got both on Saturday. Fierceness ran fine and has found consistency. It is amazing that he continues to get the same outside trip chasing a longshot from 2nd. That is the fourth time that happened but Sierra Leone moved earlier and was able to use him stamina to wear him down. I saw that the top Classic finishers might return next year. Let's hope so.

[@Mark-y5m5v]

Explain thou learned one. Highland Falls was assigned an Equibase figure of 113 for is 2:03 plus JCGC win Fierceness was assigned an Equibase figure of 110 for is 2:01 plus Travers win The track on Gold Cup Day was very tiring and not as fast as Travers Day. Highland fall s has won 9F in 1:48 plus; 8 1/2F in 1:42 plus. He is an improving 4YO who should be better in the BCC.

[@RobertDennison-eu8ot]

👍

[@imilliemedina666]

Has anyone noticed that Pyrenees has the best workout times coming in? My brain says Next but my heart says Pryrenees. Hey, it's only money.

[@JarrodHorak]

Pyrenees is a consistent performer. I can see him grinding away and fighting on in the stretch. He might be a cut below the best but he can handle the distance and placed in back-to-back G1 races. His task is not impossible.

[@karltbui]

@@imilliemedina666 I've noticed that. He's my longshot. There's always a surprise. If Brian Hernandez can get a good rail ride and stalk the pace, he can sneak in there a la Mystik Dan

[@imilliemedina666]

@@karltbui He'd have the Oaks, the Derby and the Classic in the same year.

[@garveygriffin2306]

Fierceness by 5' {Johnny money} !!!

[@CarlCarlson-k5p]

Lol.let me know how derma sotogake rear end looks like during the running of the race.lol lol lol...lol.

[@JarrodHorak]

Everyone has a different opinion and that is fine by me. I liked Derma in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup this year. He has really underperformed in 2024 but has one race from last year that gives him a look, and that was his runner-up finish in the BC Classic. I would not be shocked if he ran a better race on Saturday. Good luck with your BC Classic wagers.

[@CarlCarlson-k5p]

@JarrodHorak I got what u said. No disrespect. But when a grass horse last 6 races were on wet grass do u look back at dry grass. If a dirt horse last 5 races were run on mud or slop do u look back at fast dry track. So I respect that part of hadicaping that u and I agree on. Problem is what happened last time derma ran on dirt. Repeat dirt. Thks 4 yr shows and have a great day of racing . Only Friday bet 4 me us the waco kid.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@CarlCarlson-k5p Derma has not won a race since March 2023 as a 3-year-old, and lost his last five starts on fast dirt by a combined 35 lengths. He ran much better than expected in the 2023 BC Classic. He was supposed to be one of the top dirt performers this year but it has not panned out so far. I gave up on him after the Dubai World Cup. Let's see if he can get his career back on track in the 2024 BC Classic. He adds blinkers and will try to get forward early. You will get a big price on him Saturday.

[@CarlCarlson-k5p]

Thku maybe im wrong . I thought those dirt races over seas are synthetic dirt. ​@JarrodHorak

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

City of Troy will win the Breeders Cup easily Fierceness will fade inside the final furlongs Forever Young and Sierra Leone will be fighting out the remaining places as their late kick is not too good for the short Delmar run from the last bend to the finish line certainly TapitTrice and Tesoro will be travelling much too late as it is COT to win from perhaps Forever Young or Sierra Leone end of story

[@JarrodHorak]

Good luck with your BC Classic wagers.

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

​@@JarrodHorak So many thanks

[@JasonLaveck]

He isn't on my ticket, never ran on dirt. Good luck, it's needed