Breeders' Cup Classic Preview: Fierceness, City of Troy, Forever Young, Sierra Leone, Highland Falls

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

Forever Young won the Japan Dirt Classic (approx. 10 furlongs) earlier today (Wednesday) in Japan. After stumbling badly out of the gate, Forever Young spent most of the race in 2nd or 3rd, then took over the race in the final 1/16th, winning by 1 1/4 lengths. He looked REALLY good, stalking the frontrunners all the way. This was his first race since finishing 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. It was a large field (at least 13 horses). Ramjet finished 4th and never challenged the frontrunners. I thought Ushba Tesoro and maybe Derma Sotogake were also running in the race, but I never heard their names called. Forever Young was the only Japanese horse who finished in-the-money that was familiar to me.

[@JarrodHorak]

Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake ran last Wednesday. They finished 2nd and 5th and both are still targeting the Classic. Forever Young was solid in the Japan Dirt Classic. I liked his tactical trip and this was a very useful prep for the BC Classic.

[@CharlesTurk-d8o]

Thank you

[@charleslobo9696]

I like forever young

[@JarrodHorak]

Forever Young is a talented 3-year-old. He was solid in his winning return in Japan earlier this week and looks ready to deliver another quality effort in the BC Classic.

[@andrewblackie7170]

Ravens Pass gave Frankie Dettori a fantastic ride & he was the final challenger to come down the outside & finish it off. He wasn't the best fancied British horse but Raven ran the best race of the European horses & im a bit shocked hes the only European winner in 40 attempts BUT hopefully COT will be OK on the dirt & gets his race to suit him & give Europe a 2nd Classic winner 16yrs after the first in 2008. Im just really praying Aiden hasn't over done it talking COT up & better than he really is because that would HURT & make Aiden look a bit of a Clown as he knows his horses & how good they are so if COT runs way below form its on his head. But let's all bring POSITIVITY to the horse. Good luck Aiden & the lads.🙏

[@JarrodHorak]

City of Troy would not even have to be a superstar to be very competitive in the 2024 BC Classic. The Handicap Division and 3-Year-Old Division in the US have both been a bit of a mess this year. No clear leaders in either division and the timing might be right for an overseas Classic winner.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

Just for the record, the "non-American" winners of the BC Classic are Black Tie Affair (Irish-bred) in 1991, Arcangues (French) in 1993, Invasor (Argentina-bred) in 2006, Ravens Pass (English-trained) in 2008, and Awesome Again (Canadian-bred) in 1998.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

@@JarrodHorak One man's "mess" is another man's "competitive divisions". The U.S. has a plethora of excellent racehorses this year, and THAT'S why there has not been ONE horse who has proven himself to be the best. As for the people who consider the Beyer speed figures as "gospel", I've NEVER been a fan or follower of the Beyer speed figures. The formula is flawed, and I rarely, if ever, consult or care about the Beyer numbers.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@TheProfessorOfLife The 3-year-old division and handicap division have both been competitive because there are no superstars this year. That is fine because many of the races in those divisions are good betting races. As for figures, everyone has their own favorite speed ratings and their own handicapping methods, and if it is working, keep on doing it. The Beyer numbers are based on the final time and they use par times, past races by the competitors, and other races run that day, and some figures are tough to come up with and human error is possible. I lean on pace, speed, and performance ratings.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@TheProfessorOfLife I had Black Tie Affair in 1991. He got out there and stole the Classic that year.

[@andrewblackie7170]

Sierra Leone & Fierceness & Doorknock are the American horses to beat & Japan Forever Young BUT if Fierceness needs to be up front & try kick & hold on with Sierra Leone will be finishing fast & Doorknock will finish too & Japan really think Forever Young will finally be their year & COT is hoping for his first Classic too. Fierceness needs the race to go for him & Sierra Leone flew in the Travers & Fierceness held by a head. So COT runs to his best & goes on the dirt & has a clear race he has the fast cruising speed & the stamina so if race goes right he has the class to smash it.

[@JarrodHorak]

Dornoch was retired last week so he is out of the Classic. Fierceness and Sierra Leone are getting faster and both are logical contenders. I am anxious to see what Forever Young does in his final Classic prep later this week.

[@andrewblackie7170]

@@JarrodHorak:: They said he was unlucky in the Derby but I didn't see it so don't know myself, but the Japanese people really fancy him for the Classic, they think this is their year to win as Aiden is also hopeful Classic No26 will bring him his first. If COT is OK on dirt he must have a chance IF he's as good as Aiden says. Honestly he showed impressive form in his 2yr old campaign BUT his 3yr old campaign hasn't been as impressive & I hope he's NOT being OVERHYPED because I don't see any high rated horses he's beaten. His Derby was smart but what else friend ?? I'm just hoping the US horses he faces aren't as good as they say.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@andrewblackie7170 Forever Young had some stretch trouble when Sierra Leone started lugging in, but the Kentucky Derby is always a rough race with 20-horses. Sierra Leone would have won the Derby if he maintained a straight course. Forever Young must be considered a Classic contender if he has gotten faster. Ushba Tesoro is probably a Classic player as well. City of Troy looks the part and is probably the horse to beat if he handles dirt as good as he handles turf. If I was coming in from overseas, I would not be afraid of any US horses this year. We just do not have any standouts in the Classic division this year.

[@richardmays6755]

Sierra is going to get them all

[@JarrodHorak]

It would be nice if Sierra Leone finally got pace to chase. He continues to get faster and is more professional as well.

[@ccahill2322]

@richardmays6755, If it's not slop day, and City of Troy runs you can forget all the possibles. C.O.T is a horse of a "different colour." You will learn that if he runs. I hope he runs, instead, in the Prix de la Arc Trioumph. Better race for better quality horses. Less prize money but "Money can't buy you love, Or life.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@ccahill2322 City of Troy's trainer Aidan O'Brien has always wanted to win the BC Classic and I am glad he is targeting the main event at Del Mar in the fall. His presence makes the race a whole lot more interesting. It was fun to watch City of Troy break from the gate and dust his four overmatched workmates at Southwell last week.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

@@ccahill2322 The Prix de la Arc Trioumph is a "better" race than the Breeder's Cup Classic with "better quality horses"? The French are HILARIOUS with their faux superiority complex. I do agree with you that City of Troy should stay overseas, because he will get TROUNCED if he runs in the BC Classic. Let him run clockwise on turf, where he belongs.

[@ccahill2322]

@@TheProfessorOfLife , You are hardly a "Professor" of anything but Bullsh#t. A not uncommon quality among your compatriots. I am not French. And you are not a judge of "horses." They do not "run clockwise on turf" on most of the most prestigious races in the world. The "world" is not, as may surprise you, the USA. Unlike "the world series" of baseball where it's only played in the US and a few vassal colonies. If City of Troy runs in this "big money prize race" for that is all it is, there is no one of those horses mentioned in the "top ten" that will beat him. There is no horse in Europe, Japan or America that can beat him at mile and a quarter to mile and a half. He is a better horse-of the past twenty years- than any, bar SeatheStars. Now, I don't bet on horses, not since sixty years past, but if you are such a "judge" you give me your odds against City of Troy for a ten thousand dollar wager I will put up against you only. There is plenty of time to arrange this so it can be made a non voidable contract. If City of Troy runs without breaking a leg. If he were my horse I would not run him in this "money" farce. But then, "Professor" there is something I know --which you do not-- because you already "know" all there is to know. I await your response-without resorting to upper case lettering for "effect."

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

Let's break this down: EVERY year there's always the latest and greatest racehorses from overseas that run in the Breeder's Cup Classic, and EVERY year, these "foreign invaders" go home disappointed, except for ONE time in 40 Breeder's Cup Classic races, when an English-trained horse named Raven's Pass won the 2008 BC Classic. This year is NO EXCEPTION. Sierra Leone hasn't won ANYTHING since the Blue Grass Stakes in April. Fierceness is a problem, because we never know which Fierceness is going to show up- the Fierceness who runs like the wind when at or near the front, or the Fierceness who gives up when he's bumped or squeezed and gets dirt in his face. City of Troy will NOT win the BC Classic, as I already explained. My favorite is FOREVER YOUNG. He would have won the Kentucky Derby if he had not been mugged by Sierra Leone and his jockey. THIS YEAR will be the year that the Japanese break through and win their FIRST Breeder's Cup Classic.

[@JarrodHorak]

It is possible that a shipper from Japan will win the BC Classic. We will see if Forever Young has improved when he runs in Japan next week. He spiked a fever recently but is still supposed to run Wednesday in the Japan Dirt Classic. City of Troy is taking a similar training path as Giant's Causeway. That one trained at Southwell before shipping to Churchill and missing by a neck in the BC Classic in 2000 for Aidan O'Brien.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

@@JarrodHorak I really like Forever Young, assuming he's 100% healthy. He showed a LOT of guts in the Kentucky Derby, and would have won that race going away if not for the assault and battery he got from Sierra Leone. Plus his pedigree is incredible!

[@JarrodHorak]

@@TheProfessorOfLife Forever Young will meet fellow 3-year-old Ramjet in the Japan Dirt Classic on Wednesday. Forever Young came down with a fever during his workout on Sept. 25, and his trainer said he would work again on Sept. 29 prior to his next scheduled start on Oct. 2. Ramjet should give him a real challenge. He has won four straight dating back to December 2023.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

@@JarrodHorak That race should be a great warmup for Forever Young, but the fever could be a problem, depending on what caused the fever. Look what happened to Muth.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@TheProfessorOfLife They said the fever was caused by the heat. It was over 90 degrees when he worked. I agree that it should be a nice warmup race for him. They just need to get a prep in him and that should set him up for the BC Classic.

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

City of Troy will be coming to destroy all on Breeders Cup Classic Day Fierceness can only win if he has things his way at the top of the stretch once he is opposed atop the head of the stretch he back peddles Forever Young needs to improve to be a danger the horse of Troy is just too much to handle end of story

[@JarrodHorak]

City of Troy is very talented and is a major contender if he handles the dirt oval at Del Mar. Fierceness probably won't have everything his own way in a deep BC field. We will find out if Forever Young has progressed since the spring when he preps for the BC Classic in October.

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

@@JarrodHorak Well said Sir !!!!!!!!

[@Peradabo]

City of Troy is the best horse in Europe right now. Far superior to anything in the race.

[@JarrodHorak]

I agree. City of Troy is the top runner in Europe. He could easily win the BC Classic if he handles dirt.

[@TheProfessorOfLife]

The BC Classic is littered with the "Best horses in Europe" who shipped over to the USA and LOST, and many times really didn't show up for the race.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@TheProfessorOfLife Multiple overseas runners have disappointed on dirt, but every year is a new handicapping puzzle. I have no idea if an overseas runner will win this year, but I am definitely keeping an open mind due to the lack of handicap division/3-year-old stars in the US.

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

Sierra leone no good mystic Dan beat him and then he came outside in the KD and one pace City of troy is a turf horse come again jarrod

[@JarrodHorak]

The Kentucky Derby was over four months ago and the 3-year-olds have grown up, matured, and are faster now. As for City of Troy, we will see if he handles dirt. If he does, he is a strong BC Clasic contender.

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

Horse better Horse sometimes they run fast on slow racing is more than pace rating hope you learn know Sierra leone can't beat Fierceness because you think that they are going to go fast and Sierra leone is gonna close on win not so because the jockeys are not a fool to not give them self a chance

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

You can't run race in your head like that most of the time it doesn't work

[@JarrodHorak]

@@KevinOtis-yj8fh We will just have to see how the BC Classic plays out on Nov. 2. My video was a preview of the 1 1/4 miles profile at Del Mar and some recaps of recent BC Classic prep races. This video was not intended to pick the winner of the BC Classic at this very early date, and it would be foolish to make such a prediction this far out from the big event. As for Fierceness and Sierra Leone, I am fully aware of their strengths and weaknesses, and they are just two possible entrants in a race likely to have up to 14 runners including multiple international runners. In regards to your comments on riders, jockeys are human and can make mistakes just like us handicappers.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@KevinOtis-yj8fh Everyone has their own handicapping methods and we each know whats works best for us. After the field is set following the post position draw, I always run the race in my head based on all of the data available at that time, and that is just one of many handicapping tools I use before making any final decisions. It is okay if you do not do that. I am sure you have your own handicapping principles that work for you.