Brexit: Will Reform UK Destroy the Conservative Party?

Brendan Donnelly and John Stevens discuss the impact of the Reform Party on British politics. They argue that its threat to the Conservative Party lies in its ability to win over those voters still committed to Brexit who think that Brexit’s failure could have been avoided by a more competent or zealous Conservative government.
SPEAKERS
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
John Stevens is the Chair of the Federal Trust and an analyst and commentator on economic affairs.
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[@639viablecarrot]

If I ever needed another reason to not vote conservative these 2 have galvanised my mind.

[@maartenvandam344]

Once you introduce proportional representation, most of this goes away. Depends. Here in the Netherlands 🇳🇱, about a quarter of the electorate voted for a right wing, xenophobic, and europhobic party in the last election. That's way too many for comfort, but not enough to dominate the rest. Which is what you've had for fourteen years now.

[@sit-insforsithis1568]

Tsja, krijg je ervan als je van migratie het thema van de verkiezingen maakt. Dit is een duidelijk signaal dat het anders moet, anders gaat pvv straks naar de 50 zetels

[@terryjones6504]

Yes and if they had another election today Geert Wilders would get a lot more votes. NL looks more like Africa everyday and it’s getting poorer. Just wait till they get rid of 10% of farms, the price of food will rocket even more. The Dutch are taxed to the hilt, it was much better ruling itself and the gilder was a great currency.

[@Purple_flower09]

The Tories under Sunak have not been EU haters. Small steps have been taken in the right direction. Of course I despise them, but the current Tory leaders are not EU haters.

[@uweinhamburg]

You described the right wing dilemma pretty well: Brexit has not been a success, that's why we need more of it. Much more! This just doesn't make any sense. And for the Tories - they do have a huge majority, and they have pressed through their main aim of their last manifestos, but they look like being trapped between a rock and a hard place. A very poor performance. Is it allowed to say that Brexit just poisons everything??

[@ausbrum]

If Labour has any sense (debatable) they will introduce an Independent Commission Agaist Corruption, like those in Australia. It would have years of work relating to Tory corruption

[@brendandonnelly1853]

As the Indian student in the Billy Bunter stories might have said, the debatableness of the Labour Party’s good sense is remarkable.

[@Piden-l4b]

The Tories lost their compass in the midst of feverish nationalism.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

Nationalism is indeed the key to understanding Brexit.

[@robertallen591]

reform the same old answers, same old scape goats they simply insure the decline will get worse

[@honeybunch6473]

Watch Labour will do that

[@JupiterThunder]

It's the LibLabCon that are proposing the same old answers - i.e. more Blairism - thus making the decline worse. Only Reform is proposing a change from the destructive policies that have been in place since 1997, when Labour's lying war criminal won his first election.

[@gleeart]

All the Tories had to do was do a better job on Brexit & immigration & non of these guys & their ilk would have any opinions that meant a jot, the red wall would've held etc. & they'd be back for another term. The take away being it shows just how much internal Tory discord there's been throughout their administration, the proverbial Swan metaphor applies big time, plus how few of them were leavers plus how disfunctionally tribal they've been, bathing in their overconfidence but revealing the talent vacuum to everyone else.

[@johncraske]

Interesting and informative, as always.

[@kennethmaley2443]

Politics tornapart regarding brexit the reason this happened because the remainers like these two would not accept the democratic vote of the people and tried there best to overturn it.

[@xelakram]

Another very interesting conversation. Thank you!

[@paulwood2329]

No, no, no. This guy is not for U-turning. This guy is Voting for Refarm UK!

[@johndevoy5792]

I enjoy being informed by your views on Brexit, and may I say, from Ireland - I, and I guess like 99% here would, I wish you well to continue enlightening your compatriots. Indeed, you could always suggest they travel over and chat to people here! Just a thought!

[@indricotherium4802]

Since May 2019 at the latest both major parties have each been two parties masquerading as one. Back then the electorate was already sensing it the way a child feels there's something very wrong in its parents' relationship despite charming appearances of devotion kept up for the outside world. It is the indelibly tattoed instinct on the souls of the party machines to dance, before anything else, to the tune of FPTP. In mid 2019, the Tories were ruthless and efficient in restoring that imago of unity on its side. Labour, behind the curve as usual, needed yet another electoral defeat before it began a long drawn out krystallnacht against its left initiated by Sturmfuhrer Starmer' management team. The point is both parties keep playing the FPTP game because it's all they know how to do and they are terrified of proper PR coming in. It would demand a radically new MO in nearly all areas . So they keep British parliamentary democracy held back and, seeking absolute power on a minority mandate, relegate anything more than token representation of the voters to an impossibility. In the EU, most elections result in three, four or five parties gaining substantial proportions of the vote (by which I mean 15 to 30%). The UK, because of FPTP is a complete outlier with two parties getting 35 to 45% and (apart from a couple of occasions and in some regional contexts) the rest almost nowhere. My view is that we cannot go back into the EU with this atrocious antediluvian electoral system in place. The nation needs to become less neurotic and more normal - more European. Adopting PR wouldn't be a panacea but it would be a massive step on the road to changing the contaminated culture of Westminster politics. Lastly, the impetus for reform to PR is never - NEVER - going to come from either of the two party machines. The will to adopt PR must come from the people, led by and defined by the people (i.e. under the organised and professional leadership of campaigners who realise we can't ever advance through the playing out of FPTP charades every four or five year).

[@ednorton47]

Why would you want to go back into the EU? Also, parties are nothing more than criminal gangs.

[@BalefulBunyip]

Lets hope so!

[@modelcitizen2028]

Just what is Reform's purpose, at least as far as it's donors are concerned? Is it to direct the Tory party in to a particular direction, or to destroy it completely - leaving it as a minor 3rd party? It seems there just aren't enough voters signed up to their agenda to win more than a few seats, never mind making Reform a serious challenge.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

Reform has a similar goal to that underlying UKIP. It wants to force the Conservative Party in a more radically Europhobe direction and it doesn’t care how this comes about.

[@modelcitizen2028]

@@brendandonnelly1853Maybe, but that might result in the right vote being split between old-school Blue wall Tories and more radical Red-Wall / Reform voters - resulting in a Labour majority for many years.

[@germansnowman]

@@modelcitizen2028True, but ideologues don’t care about things like that.

[@russellwhite1581]

@@brendandonnelly1853 which is why it was set up as a company - so, as you pointed out, Farage can force a merger without having to consult "members" (there are none - just supporters with no say. I'm a pro-Brexiteer (but not pro-Faragism) and looking objectively at the Tory plight it is my view that the Tories ought to revert back to their original pro-EU stance, leaving Reform UK to exist as a separate entity, with Tories entering into an electoral pact with Lib Dems. Tories are closer to social Liberalism these days, so it seems that the only way they will avoid electoral meltdown is by going back to their pre-2016 manifesto. This won't halt the rise of R-UK, but it would claw back many Remainer votes from Labour/SNP.

[@Purple_flower09]

​@@russellwhite1581 but the Liberals are not going to contaminate themselves with an association with the Tories. They were almost totally destroyed the last time.

[@honeybunch6473]

It already has. Labour next.

[@alanwilliams9310]

Listening to these two talking complete rubbish, makes me realise why our country is in the mess it is. You both may smirk about Brexit, Mr Anderson and Mr Farage, but these gentlemen know the concerns of the British public, unlike the rest of Westminster. I was a Conservative voter but have now moved to Reform UK.

[@ronaldsimpson8890]

So you still trust right wingers , who cant tell you how they will clear up the mess that (the party the told us to vote for in 2019, ) have got us into.

[@chrissmith6022]

Bwahahahahahahaha …. 😂

[@ronaldsimpson8890]

Have they actually told anyone how they will solve the problem of mass immigration? It was started in the fifties under Churchill, allegedly to help rebuild Britain , but mainly to suppress the wages when there was a lack of workers in Britain.

[@chrissmith6022]

@@ronaldsimpson8890 what ‘problem’ is this you speak of? What precisely is the ‘problem’? Lets begin by acknowledging that it is nothing to do with wages, housing or doctor’s appointments … because ALL of those issues are political choices caused by tory austerity …

[@ronaldsimpson8890]

@@chrissmith6022 well as far as i can tell immigration is the main concern for all right wing voters.

[@nickdoughty518]

Another thoughtful and welcome discussion.

[@michaelgoss9606]

Thank you both, as always, a very good and enlightening discussion.

[@nicolassTRAVEL]

Uk is not united anymore

[@ronaldsimpson8890]

Thatcher saw to that.

[@Purple_flower09]

It never was

[@johnburrows3385]

We can hope.

[@johnnelson7735]

Brexit it NOT dissapointment. becaused its not been carried out.

[@Purple_flower09]

What kinds of connections with the EU do you want severed?

[@JupiterThunder]

@@Purple_flower09 Northern Ireland's annexation by the EU for a start

[@vivwindsor4055]

@@JupiterThunder The people of Northern Ireland, like Scotland, voted to remain. So maybe they are happy to be 'annexed'.

[@margaretbloomer9001]

Thank-you gentlemen, illuminating as ever. 🥂

[@kennethmaley2443]

Get your facts right reform do talk about mass legal immigration.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

Which they fail to admit has risen because of Brexit. Please see my response to dogglebird below.

[@JupiterThunder]

@@JohnStevens-gp7ge It's risen because the consocialists have decide Britain's business model is to be the cheap labour capital of the world, plus they're woke leftist tr41tors

[@Zugswang365]

Excellent discussion as usual. I agree with the line that it is impossible to predict what British politics will look like after the next election.

[@chriselliott726]

Old white men talking sense. How refreshing!

[@sandrahaywood3367]

KEEP GOING YPU CHSMPIONS OF OUR REFORK UK PARTY* **YOU HAVE THE BRITISH PEOPLE LISTENING TO YOUR EVERY WORD****

[@brendandonnelly1853]

I’m not sure what “reforking” the UK might involve. But I can’t believe many people would vote for such an apparently painful future.

[@kennethmaley2443]

Sounds like a couple of old remainers l bet they are mates of old hesletine.

[@JupiterThunder]

Probably - they spout as much drivel as Tarzan

[@chrissmith6022]

Oh I do hope so😂

[@amug.7279]

The going the Trumpian way. Disgusting for every conservative. Edmund Burke would be disgusted. What a downfall for decency. They become a horrible party.

[@pastyman001]

Reform will nibble at the Tory vote but the LibDems in the south and generally Labour will take the seats

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

The LDs will gain some Tory seats in the SE. But they are greatly underperforming imv, partly because they are merely a Labour vote where Labour has no roots, or a soft Tory vote, but the LDs are avowedly a "centre-Left" party, so such votes are but a loan in these exceptional circumstances. The pure protest element in the LD vote has gone, hence the on the face of it improbable challenge from Reform. After this coming modest bounce, there will still be nothing worse than ceasing to be anti-Establishment, without the qualities to be Establishment (and thus its electoral benefits).

[@RamblingTog]

Hope so

[@advocate1563]

Assertion central. Absolutely waffle without substantiation of the facts.

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

And what are the facts you might be advocating?

[@nigelhardy7218]

Thank you both for another informative discussion on the plight of the Tory party. If Farage takes it over I struggle to imagine it as having a glittering future. A question I have for you is this - What's your current assessment of the Labour Party's stability? Last autumn you discussed the possibility of Labour splitting if Starmer's economic policy underwhelmed those left of him. I wonder if you think that threat has receded.

[@brendandonnelly1853]

In the short term the prospect of massive electoral success is a unifying factor. Starmer will however need to demonstrate more political skill than he has until now if he is to maintain that unity until 2029.

[@nigelhardy7218]

@@brendandonnelly1853 There is so much that could go wrong for Labour in the next 4-5 years that should cause concern for 2029. If Starmer fails to enthuse the nation by tinkering with rather than reforming the economy, and public services and hiding from the Brexit debacle, 2029 could become another constitutional crisis. Until now the duopoly has always held firm, but if the Tories are no longer credible and Labour has lost the public love to win a second term, another main party would need to rise up. Very difficult under FPTP. Various voices have said Brexit could also destroy the Labour Party which at the moment rides the wave of Get the Tories Out without talking much to the nation.

[@billhamilton7066]

With LUCK 😅

[@christown2827]

Farage needs to be in Parliament to be able to lead this "new" party. Without him being given a safe seat effectively by proxy his record suggests he is unlikely to be able to become an MP.

[@nigelhardy7218]

The Green Party has two leaders both of whom are outside Parliament. Frage with his private Limited company (non-party) will do as he pleases. He always does.

[@rosalindfitch-mayo6908]

WE VOTEDTO LEAVE THE EU -WHAT IS DEMOCRATIC ABOUT THE EU- YOU ARE THE PEOPLE WHOWOULD GIVE AWAY OUR COUNTRY AND SOVEREIGNTY AGAIN- STARMER CANNOT DECIDED WHAT A WOMAN IS

[@andrewblewett2300]

Oh dear

[@margaretbloomer9001]

They walk among us.@@andrewblewett2300

[@gerhardaigner5108]

None of the political parties, except the SNP, dare to promote Europe to be the future the UK. This creates the impression the people in the UK see anti-EU. Ehere do you take the optimism from tat the UK

[@gerhardaigner5108]

Will eventually rekoin?

[@JohnStevens-gp7ge]

Correct.

[@JupiterThunder]

The federalist farts

[@stevewilliams2691]

HOPEFULLY 😂

[@tombartram7384]

People decide beforehand what their "conclusion" is, then have a mock "discussion". Lol.

[@CliffordSullivan-fj7jv]

The Conservatives are destroying themselves...Hell Reform..hahahahaaaaa

[@markmerry1471]

I will be voting Reform. And your still coming out with your nrmal bull shit and crap

[@ArrowfieldMan]

Quiet down- the adults and clever people are talking.

[@modelcitizen2028]

I'd have thought you would agree with what Brendan is saying at 13:40 ?

[@pastyman001]

Boohoo, the brown people are coming for you

[@markmerry1471]

good joke as I am posable a lot old then you@@ArrowfieldMan

[@markmerry1471]

How do you know I have not don so at this time@@petertimmermans8425