Buy the Dip or Time to Short the Stock Market: Breaking Down the Bearish Argument

[@zen4ife]

really just a much smarter and straight forward commentary than you'll here anywhere - doesn't claim to know the market just straight on what he's going to do and why

[@mysolutionswireless]

curious if why not wait for the confirmation of the buy the dip to potentially double tops , then short when it hit? or are you short now and add more when confirmation confirmed!?

[@eminalopatyuk6812]

I was anticipating seeing your video on the current market situation. I find your lateral and contrary valuable thinking for this unpredictable market move.

[@amarreta]

I always enjoy listening to your perspective and thought process. Thanks as always for doing those videos. 😊

[@fooslinger]

I took profits on Thursday and Friday. Also dipped my toe in some short positions earlier in the week, when I saw what seemed to be shameless and wreckles FOMO surges. I like Shapiro's inputs.

[@brianborse3555]

Cool video! I like your theory on fading psychological consensus. As for your bearish argument, wouldn't excessive devaluation of USD be extremely bullish for equities? (See markets in Turkey, Argentina, Egypt, etc...)

[@larryb5914]

Very good analysis of potential moves, as the markets will try to frustrate both bull and bear, and I like the optional thinking you have proposed here thanks!

[@stevehavas3970]

Your honesty is refreshing. Chart set up on Nasdaq reflects position well. I’m worried we see a final spring. We will see.

[@GEOPOLITICALANALYSIS]

Totally agree, I think also on a Astro level we are going into negative period. Bulls Bears percentage is way off. Love these Jason.

[@hude7534]

Great insight Jason, quick question, are you short Dow with your usual size or half, as I remember in previous video you advised not to short the market or at least use a half the normal size and try to hedge it with another trade.

[@anandrao3651]

Hi Jason, So if you are “wrong” you will be out of the DOW if it gets above its recent intraday high of 35,679? Also, if you are right what level do you exit your position on winning trade-when COT data reverses the other way and you get a news failure the other way? What is average length of time for your “winning trades? Thanks for your thoughts!

[@jasonshapiro4369]

ill get stopped at new highs if wrong. Ill take profit if COT goes back to neutral reading. Average is about 3 months, but alot of variability around that

[@canismajorbeats]

Appreciate it!

[@stephenkutney9626]

Are non-dealer brokers limited in the number of stock market index contracts they can buy?

[@CaptainSheeple]

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts. Was there ever an explanation given for the delay in the COT reports a few months back? Thanks again.

[@jasonshapiro4369]

computer hack

[@alansimon1354]

hey Jason, I'm curious. Why should the Nasdaq lead a trend just because it's the most volatile of the indices? Does volatility make you a leader? Bitcoin is the most volatile of all assets but it almost invariably follows what the major markets do

[@kiwoongpk91]

Enjoyed it. I can’t not take the trade off of the spx highs. My system is waiting for it, but my losses are calculated so it’ll be okay if you take my money 👌

[@billdavies2656]

Love your way of thinking. Thanks for sharing.

[@anishpawar8852]

You are my teacher to fundamental and you helped me to look market in a logical way Thank you sir Love from India 🙏

[@tonyb7275]

Yea man, I agree and see it started scaling into shorts a week ago and watching it so far so good nasdaq 16k top

[@aggerleejones200]

F'ing love your straightforward and honest approach. I remember reading about you in the MW book. I never heard of the COT report before following you and it's eye opening. I purchased the charts package from CMR and it's been very helpful. Thank you sharing your market knowledge, it's much appreciated!!

[@abbasmohamed5356]

Thanks 😊 can you go some currencies which you think have good probibilities as well

[@thehungergames8918]

Thank you Jason 😃👊

[@anon6599]

So are you saying that because the Dow was leading the upside, that it will fall first too? On COT sites I see net long from commercials on SPX and NASDAQ. Would you still be long for those indexes? Thanks.

[@jasonshapiro4369]

i have been Neutral those indices since June. and remain so

[@anon6599]

@@jasonshapiro4369 Nice. Thanks for your clarification. I showed my brother your videos as he was trying to long gold from the highs. Appreciate it.

[@valeriobrl]

Thanks Jason, always instructive to hear You

[@mikesmith2315]

I shorted Thursday based on candles. Friday Nasdaq 100 candle looks poised for a drop from Monday. Long-dated US Treasures may also have a weak bounce but expect downtrend to resume.

[@seichho73]

Great stuff!! Keep em' coming Jason. I have been long since March. (I was a little late to the party). But just went short on Thursday as well. Anxiously awaiting CPI data.

[@jasontaylor2237]

it's something about your approach sir. Most definitely respect it...i do! . You talking your book. A new sub here. 💯 keep bringing us the A-1 analysis. It's appreciated.

[@zwriter3658]

Bearish arguments are always the best lol

[@luutoan8999]

Love the video. I heard some professional traders say that the next market crash will be likely the recession in 1968 to 1975, it will be a long bear market counted by years. Any thinking about that idea Jason??

[@jasonshapiro4369]

i dont think its possible to predict the future with much accuracy. everyone has on opinion. dont mean much to me

[@luutoan8999]

@@jasonshapiro4369 Understandable, thank you for your reply, have a nice trading week Jason

[@p.c.h.6721]

In the early 90’s I was in college and a financial manager said to me “The Nikkei is the place to be” 😂😂😂 Great video Sir 👍

[@jasonshapiro4369]

I was in HK and everyone said Asia was the place to be. Meanwhile Asia economies have grown by a ton, the the return in the stock markets there have been minimal.

[@uriabinenshtok]

thanks for the video also, what are your thoughts about bill ackman shorting 30 year bonds

[@jasonshapiro4369]

dont care about him

[@thomaskauser8978]

Everyone including his first wife and second wife's father is in that trade ! He was laughing when he said that! EVERYBODY IS IN THERE ALREADY!

[@ridiska99]

Hello Jason, IF market going lower, does that mean dollar ripping higher? What about Bitcoin?

[@jasonshapiro4369]

i dont pay much attention to bitcoin. I am also long dollar here, again based on positioning

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

My indicators and price action have me out of most positions in previous leaders. If I had to guess market direction, I think Jason is spot on. It's been a hell of a run and even a solid 10% PB shouldn't surprise. Good luck everyone!

[@zetolone]

everybody looking for a correction now so a small squeeze is likely to happen (dollar is bearish short term)

[@indianajones3315]

@@zetoloneFriday should have told you something. Not enough shorts out there to stop the market from dropping.

[@zetolone]

@@indianajones3315 vix is resurrecting so is indeed time to pay attention but is not over yet.. squeeze till cpi imho

[@kenspidle2532]

Very rational and calculated approach👍🏼 thank you🙏🏼

[@JonM-ts7os]

Nice video, its really amazing how the market works and you give completely different incite than 99%

[@lookingatthemarkets]

Thank you for the video

[@erwangaillard1637]

Thanks a lot for your insight. I think the market just topped on the invalidation you just played. Why ? The only reason because it's a high probability top is that : -I was short all year -Then I switched long in June -Then when I saw the recent sharp drop every trailing stop loss was hit then I thought "that's a pullback we're going to new highs" -I was ready to buy the "dip" tomorrow Then I just watched your video today it completely changed my mind. We might chop a bit to dissect the ultra gamblers bull/bear. Then form a top with all the buyers possible. Then the ship goes down. EVERY bear I follow is waiting for new ATH in mid 2024 to go short again. The market goes down when nobody is short and I think that even if some bears are still saying things like "the market will go down" it doesn't mean they're short. Every trader/gambler on the short side like me has been destroyed. Current bears are basically analysts without any skin in the game. Opinion doesn't mean positioning. Also the big news on NVDA is out : China will buy etc etc... So now I read a lot of "just buy NVDA" classic bagholding mentality we find near the tops. My 2cents.

[@Eddiethecat854]

Love the video. Thank you

[@douglasstewart2253]

Great explanation of your positioning. Respect no matter what happens. I think possibly we won't get the pullback investors are waiting for. It's hard to ride the bull all the way through to the end. It wants to shake everyone off.

[@mikecabana3056]

There's too many short therory .. and more now with a pullback

[@3lions9]

Appreciate your content partner, thanks for sharing

[@Tom-yr6kt]

Thx for doing the video Jason ! You could be wrong but who cares, it's all about probabilities ! There's a lot of people out there just commenting other peoples' work and as a commentator they are always right after the facts !

[@gingerbread6134]

Remember this Jason : the truth is somewhere else.... ( about us printing money default theory ) - probably between the worst and the best outcome but where we dont expect it...

[@andrewmorris2820]

I just saw this and, of course, pulled up a chart and wow. Great call on the DOW.

[@Deadlygangsta]

Do you think AAPL touches 185 again this week? I have 185 calls expiring in 2 weeks, 8/18

[@marcgerges1380]

Thank you for the insights.

[@MeerKatReport]

An interesting take, I'm also a bit concerned about corruption in the financial system, but I'm more concerned about whoever is providing margin to the very persistent bears who are still bearish and short, in individual names and across the market. NVDA rang the Bull-Bell with their last earnings, and tech is moving into its next, even more powerful, form. Earnings are going to rise, and push valuations with them. From where I sit, given how promising many smaller companies across sectors look right now, it's tough to see the selling as high conviction. It seems to me more like liquidation events, either to raise the cash needed to cover sold calls which are being exercised, or to free up capital to push into smaller companies with higher alpha potential.

[@indianajones3315]

Not really paying attention, huh

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

When are earnings going to start rising?

[@steviechang]

This is excellent stuff!!

[@feboogi]

I'm a bear but even I know they will ramp market to new highs to convince bulls they are invincible and can never lose . Then market will crater minimum 50%

[@joefeinstein6804]

very interesting. seems like a pivotal moment.

[@doktorpt]

Thanks for your video and your input. Hope you are right and make a lot of money !!!

[@jasonshapiro4369]

that makes 2 of us. thanks

[@garrison3675]

... sure looks like they bought the dip on Monday ... we shall see as the story unfolds !

[@Essays4College]

So I guess my question of whether you know any of the other Market Wizards personally will go unanswered. Thanks for putting out content on the weekend though J. True professionals work on their craft even on weekends!

[@jasonshapiro4369]

I knew a few of them before I was in the book. Worked for one, interviewed with another. One of my mentors was Helmut Weymar who started commodities corporation

[@BAMMEDIA]

It's over😢

[@fraudpolice4603]

Great video and insight as usual. I totally agree with everything Jason shared here, the bullish view was clearly contrarian first 5 months of the year, now it doesn't seem like it from what I see on both Twitter and CNBC. Appears that "everyone" seems to have pushed recession to 2024, expect new market highs with a dip along the way, and hope to position for a bust in 2024. I think the contrarian trade then is either we never have a bust in 2024, or we have a bust right now next few months (this is my view). I like how flexible Jason is (though a little reluctant here), and that he is willing to get bearish despite some of the bears he likes to Fade are still bearish. I hope he makes big money on this trade for Dan's sake :)

[@fraudpolice4603]

@@sal.e.mander aren't you just reiterating my point 🤣

[@eightchi3603]

thank you 🙏

[@juanmadridejos5641]

So cool videos and i am subscribed to your report. Only a pity that with English subtitles we can not see your face. Thank u for these awesome videos

[@jasonshapiro4369]

Im sorry you cant see my face. Ill tell you the secret, I am very handsome

[@ATLJB86]

I have been shorting this market all year by way of options. We were stuck in a range and I rode that range up and down all year. Got killed the on Spy shorting at 424 because it made that insane run up. I’m overall bearish but there is way too much bullish momentum! It’s not even normal.. Almost like the market is being propped up.. Regardless, the S&P will probably close around 4800 this year based on my technical analysis. Trust me when i tell you, this market wants to go up.

[@efanshel]

Brave and intelligent

[@rosemaryjenny-b1z]

Despite the economic crisis,this is a Still a good time to invest in stock and Crypto

[@mikesmith2315]

Gold put in a hammer on Friday so will buy strength on Monday.

[@SaifAli-nt5sh]

i still see bears on cnbc nonetheless. any comments?

[@jasonshapiro4369]

agree, as mentioned on here

[@detrockcity3]

Yeah, I went short Wednesday. Took a bit off the table Friday when it fell. Will add again when we see bounce run out of steam, ceteris paribus.

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

There was a collective gasp when Yellen announced the upcoming bond issuance

[@marcobiagioni]

Yeah Jason took a short 🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@thomaskauser8978]

Paper or plastic!

[@RobertRiversnew]

Not a very good call, part of your 62%, of being wrong and given that APPL is in freefall.

[@ivantsanov3650]

😂😂😂 2:40 Government is NOT buying its own debt, they are selling treasures on auctions and the fed isn't allowed to buy directly.

[@jasonshapiro4369]

Does the Fed buy U.S. Treasury bonds? In the two years following the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, the Fed bought over $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. These bond purchases differed in composition from the Fed's earlier QE programs.

[@ivantsanov3650]

@jasonshapiro4369 Fed DOES 'buy' treasures (all the time), but they are buying from the dealer/other banks not directly from the government.

[@jasonshapiro4369]

@@ivantsanov3650 seems like semantics to me

[@ivantsanov3650]

@jasonshapiro4369 .... the way it works is as follows 'Your Bank' 🏦 shows up at an auction and buys treasures from the government using the money from your savings/checking accounts. Right after that, the Fed comes in and 'buy' from 'Your Bank' 🏦 something that was already paid for with your money. The way Fed doing the 'buying' is by increasing 'Your Bank' 🏦 reserves (their savings account with the Fed). NO money issued no nothing.

[@bruce5285]

Since you didn't broadcast your short on Thursday, it's not very believable. Look for the market to drop 6% from last weeks highs.

[@jasonshapiro4369]

believe what you want. its right on twitter live time

[@johndillon5488]

So you're bearish but you tell us not to believe you 'cause that's your book'?

[@jasonshapiro4369]

im saying i probly have a bias here so take it with a grain of salt. bias is always bad

[@-Nab-]

Maximum amount of pain 🤣🤣🤣

[@thomaskauser8978]

Let broccoli man run back in a couple more days and than cut it all down!

[@SonGoku_dk57]

Was waiting for your view🙏