I am just like that 4:23. and i have the same mindset all life, the uppersite of anyone else. i think i found my mentor, ive had different the last years. but i don`t somehow belive them enough to actually do what they say :-/ so many good things in this interview :-)

"We're in an economic kayfabe right now." Paul Tudor Jones

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

The stock market is more volatile than ever. recently went "all in" and bought up $150k worth of ETF's & individual stocks, my aim is to take advantage of this S&P 500 downtrend, what could be accurate predictions moving forward?

Just sold a property in Texas and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.

If the prevailing viewpoint among the majority is that either: stocks are overvalued or there will be large-scale future growth, current price action should reflect either side of this consensus view (given that current stock purchases and sales are forward looking). And, so far, stock prices have continued higher even with this information discounted in. - - In other words, I believe the majority of investors are looking at it in a similar way, yet prices continue higher, so it appears the growth narrative remains dominant.

Agree

🙏

Where do u see BTC and ETH going in Q1 and Q2 2025.?

Only thing overvalued is mag 7, some other large caps and spy and tech etfs the other 7500 stocks (small and mid mostly) are undervalued and still down 50-80% so question is will everything come down? Or will the market even out? No one really knows but next year will tell

The answer is simple. The value of $USD is decreasing. It looks like the stocks and houses are overvalued. Adjust for inflation all assets. Gold just made a profit this year.

I do my own fundamental analysis of the markets and then fade myself. It's been working great.

We are in our 50s with nearly $3M saved, no debt and $50K annual spending. But we avoid the stock market completely.

Can anyone explain to me the meaning of ‘market discounts the future not past’ please?

Thanks

Jim Cramer just said The Stock Market is overbought.

With Trump's re-election, both US stocks and Bitcoin are seeing strong gains. I'm eyeing the potential for more market volatility, but Bitcoin's all-time high is interesting. With inflation and interest rates on the rise, I'm wondering if this is a good time to dive deeper into stocks or focus on crypto for diversification. Any thoughts on balancing both?

Great insights Jason, thanks.

Questions. 1)If lower govt deficit (move from 6+% to 3% target) then doesn't it follow, that = lower bond issuance = higher demand per bond (all else being equal) = higher yield = lower bond price? Wouldn't that mean it's possible to see a recession without first having the bond market spit out the dummy? 2) I just can't imagine even the rumour of planned govt department cuts not having a negative effect on govt employee expenditure. If you're a US govt employee right now, you're surely not planning your next Caribbean cruise, right??? Given the oversize of US govt to GDP right now, this is going to have an effect on the economy- whether or not the cuts are enacted- just the fear of losing your livelihood will lower spending. Or not??? I totally agree with Jason's view on not shorting a bull market. Just wondering what data point is going to come out and reverse current thinking - I'm guessing, for this particular thesis, the answer lies around consumer spending / retail sales. What do you guys think??

For all thos BTC critic's ... they all wish they could have bought it at 1k, 10k, 20k, 30k, 40k, 50k, 60k... just imagine how much gold you could buy with the amount of profits. Gold is not the future. It's too heavy and too slow. Crypto is the future. And you can beleive or not believe. But we can all agree that you and I would have been much better off had we bought BTC any time in the past. Now all that said. I think BTC goes to a million but it goes to 20k first. Any massive pullback in it... is a trade not a hold. Same for gold and sliver. Rich don't hold tops ... they trade........ I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 3b"tc to a decent 26B'tc in the space of a few months. Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Seren Wintersun can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of trading has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.

Who is a better fade? Cramer Steve Van Metre guy

Thank you Sir :)

IMO we are going to rally like 1999. There will keep being people that can't believe it, they will short and fuel the market higher, anyone on the sidelines won't be able to stand it any longer and they will jump in. More disbelief, fueling the market higher.... the market always stretches too far to the upside and downside.... and then the perfect 100 year cycle... Yes, late 2028/2029 100 years after the Great Depression will start the next Great Depression.... Big market crashes seem to like years ending in the numbers 7,8,9 and 0

👍Thanks. 👍Jason, is it price discounting or largely due to liquidity flows: if the Fed goes Brrr and funds receive pension payments, won't the market keep going up ?

Cvna nuff said

I don't buy the new administration narrative. Market was skipping up before election and no matter who won it was going to keep grinding higher. Narrative comes after.

Great insight- I tried shorting this year and I got short squeezed badly...never bet against a raging market. A crash will come some time but that time is uncertain until it comes...personally, I believe AI is overvalued but I'm not shorting until the market goes to crisis mode. Until then I will just enjoy dividends (long AGNC, JEPI,...). Good luck! God bless us all!

it's definitely valued

Great information...much appreciated.

Bond market has been rejecting the prospect of rate cuts and actual rate cuts... and TLT presently down 45% from ATH.... Seems like that meets the definition...

Thanks to you, I now have realistic expectations for this bull run. I entered crypto earlier this year, and your insights on cycles and market connections have been invaluable. I now understand how global markets impact crypto, so I'm watching traditional market tops closely. Without your guidance, I’d probably be holding blindly instead of actively managing my positions. Growing my portfolio from 2.3 BTC to 24 BTC in a few months has been incredible. Special thanks to Jinny Franz for her expertise, which has been essential in navigating this complex landscape.

Thanks for sharing your great thoughts. Super cool man.

Jason, Thank you for this post. More importantly than the market, I'm trying to figure out if you are a Bhudda & whether I'm gonna get there someday.

It’s difficult to compare technicals on a chart due the accumulative 25% inflation during 20-24. If you discount against inflation the bubble doesn’t look so bad. If average inflation you could basically cut the chart bubble in half or more.

A deficit for the government is positive for the other side. You have to ask yourself where does that money go. There are many economists that say high interest rates may increase inflation. If the new administration attempts to cut the deficit that means they are pulling money out of the system, and that is not good for the economy.

But just because it's overvalued, doesn't mean it can't keep going up. For at least a little while longer. Just like it can keep going down longer as well. I agree, believing what the tape thinks, is all that matters

let the tape confirm it anyways ...... ^^ agreed jason, thanks again for posting

Jason, are you married?

Overvalued / expensive is relative to the expectation of liquidity inflow. If the floor as raised in tandem with the ceiling, the asset isnt overvalued. Now, the monetary tide is rising.

The Nas is lower than the DJI and the S&P, but we should be trend traders so we just go with the market

Thank you so much for this amazing video! I need some advice: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?

Thanks buddy

I met Buffett in 1999. I told him I was having trouble finding stocks to buy. “That’ll change!” he said with a big grin.

Buffet thinks the market is overvalued, but an overvalued market can become even more overvalued. The current inflation is not caused by high oil prices, however. Trump may be for deregulation, but he is also for higher tariffs. Higher tariffs will definitely cause higher inflation. Some people say Trump is just using higher tariffs especially with China as a negotiation tactic to get better deals. I will tell you this. Today's China is very different from China 8 years ago. China this time is more prepared and also more nationalistic and will not accept any deal that makes President Xi look weak. China can survive for months, but can Americans survive for months of higher prices?

Value is a matter of perspective, because do we just keep going up and down up and down. Markets are not a YO-YO because growth also matters these valuations are cheap for a new cycle. Stocks go higher

We are no where near agi. Ai is just a hype for at least next decade.

My thoughts exactly. But much more well articulated by a beautiful balding man.

How can I make a good profit as a beginner starting with $9,600?