Buying a House in 2024 - Should You Wait Until After CRASH?

[@economicshelp]

Text version with graphs at www.economicshelp.org/blog/214932/economics/forecasts-for-house-prices-in-2024/ I have a new channel on global economics. If interested, please do subscribe! www.youtube.com/@EconomicsHelpGlobal-sf5iv?sub_confirmation=1 This channel Economics Help UK will now focus exclusively on UK housing market and UK economy. It is kzbin.info_confirmation=1

[@austinbar]

Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 10% to 14% and 5% to 6% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

[@rogerwheelers4322]

Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

[@joshbarney114]

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

[@FabioOdelega876]

I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.

[@joshbarney114]

I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Natalie Noel Burns who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@FabioOdelega876]

Natalie has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

[@johngreen8026]

Despite current uncertainty, I bought a house recently. I'm so glad I did. It's my own place and I can put my own stamp on it, I'm paying down a mortgage, which is also cheaper than my old rent. And I don't have to deal with my ridiculous former landlord. I'm happy, and I'm getting on with my life rather than waiting for a crash that might not happen. I do actually hope prices drop, not only for my friends who aren't yet able to get on the ladder, but also for myself in years to come when I want to move up the property ladder and will need a bigger mortgage.

[@TM-uh1qp]

One of the most sensible and gracious outlooks I have seen on any housing market video!

[@KengCheong]

Absolutely. Economist and banks looks at numbers purely, but the psychological benefit of having your own house that’s within your means comfortably is usually unmentioned and underrated.

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

There is NEVER a bad time to buy a property. Doesn't matter what the market is doing. As long as you're in and hitting that mortgage balance you are winning.

[@Jordan-fd6cx]

Comment of the day. Doing well, and actually wishing the same for others. 👏

[@miriamllamas224]

If you're not planning or don't have to move in the next five years, you'll be ok. Enjoy your house and make it a home for many years to come ❤

[@Greggsberdard]

I believe housing prices won't drop significantly until we increase the supply. In the USA, there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping up. Since people always need a place to live and the population keeps growing, any small price decrease attracts buyers quickly. I'm looking to buy affordable houses in 2024 and possibly invest in stocks. When's the best time to buy stocks? Some say it's profitable, while others warn of risks. Any advice?

[@lolitashaniel2342]

If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.

[@VictorBiggerstaff]

If you lack market knowledge, your best bet is to seek advice or support from a consultant or investing coach. Contacting a consultant may sound simple, but it's how I've managed to stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. It is, in my opinion, the best way to get started in the industry right now.

[@crystalcassandra5597]

That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

[@VictorBiggerstaff]

Sonya Lee Mitchell . You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.

[@nax1807]

Population is on the decrease, who told you it's increasing?

[@johnhumphries6751]

If lower income people are more affected by inflation, their inability to buy will disproportionately reduce sales at the lower end of the market. Consequently the 'average price' of homes sold will now be based on less lower cost homes and a larger proportion of higher cost homes. This means average house price figures remain looking healthy while the real value of homes can be decreasing quite considerably. People should be really sceptical about any statements concerning the health of the housing market which are based on 'average house price data' because they're not comparing like with like.

[@christopherwright8811]

Ssshhhhh. You're giving the statisticians' game away. NAUGHTY!!!😅

[@conconmc]

Good house prices indexes should account for this however (you would hope), for example they will look at a 3 bed house in an area and track the sales for those 3 bed houses over time , but yes you are correct when you aggregate everything and with smaller sample sizes then the averages are more likely to be affected by the type of housing stock sold.

[@johnhumphries6751]

@@conconmc I'm not aware of any indices which look at things like this. Most of the quoted ones simply take the national or regional sum borrowed by the institution (or figures sent to the land registry if it's the government) then divide by the number of units and call it the 'average price' or sometimes 'seasonally adjusted average price'. Affordability gets considered in a similar half assed way for first time buyers, it's always 'average priced home' and 'average salary', when neither of these things is an accurate description of either what a ftb earns or what they want to buy. It's pitifully simplistic finger in the air stuff by the men in suits. :-)

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

The reason why those lower value properties don't sit unsold because lower earners cannot afford them, is because you have the trickle down affect of buyers who are lowering their aspirations up the chain. The most affected property in a downturn is generally the large detached properties above £1m, because there isn't another level of buyers above that to adjust. I consult several house builders and I am not affected by market conditions. What I do see is an increased interest in cheaper properties, not less, with less interest in the very large properties.

[@Grandude77]

Except it won't. Wether they can afford to buy or not they still need an address. So those properties will be bought and rented to those who cannot afford to buy. This is the point, the dream of buying a home has to end. Know your place and subsidise the lifestyles of those richer than you. All the while paying more tax on your income (paye) than they do on theirs (capitol gains)

[@moominmay]

To be honest as a homeowner with a manageable mortgage, I personally won’t be affected by the peaks and troughs since I only have one home to live in and none for investment purposes. So if I want to move elsewhere to a larger place or in a more desirable place and prices fall then so will all properties including any I may have my future eye on.

[@Decrepit_biker]

I'm sorry, but if you dig further into the figures inflation is considerably worse than official ONS statistics suggest. They have been very clever in how the have calculated it from the CIP and not the CIPH. Look at the individual components of the data, and you'll see that food and other things such as mortgage payments and rent of let properties which are actually going up as more people come off of fixed price deals.... the UK is very broken right now.

[@WillyJunior]

It's not some grand conspiracy that they don't calculate it from CPIH. It's because one of the measures used to tackle inflation is literally to make people's mortgages more expensive via increased interest rates. CPIH will of course be higher than CPI when inflation-reducing measures are in place

[@rebeccalindsay5795]

I'm getting sick of 'waiting for a crash'. I've bought a house for roughly 40K less than it would have cost in 2021. Expecting to exchange contracts in March. After mortgage and bills, and renting out 1 of the 3 bedrooms, I'll only be paying an extra £125 each month, than I'm paying renting a single room

[@moominmay]

Wow that’s definitely a better decision. May I ask if you’re purchasing alone?

[@rebeccalindsay5795]

@@moominmay yep 😊. Took me nlike 5 years to save for a deposit 😂

[@moominmay]

@@rebeccalindsay5795 ah well done! I’m a single female who also recently bought alone and it’s difficult but empowering. No longer at the arbritrary whim of landlords! Good luck for your future 🙂

[@rebeccalindsay5795]

@@moominmay thank you! Best of luck to you too

[@-Chunk]

Everyone has been saying there will be a crash for 3 years!

[@wabbitrage8358]

Just means tye crash will be bigger when it comes

[@James-st9uu]

Simce 2008 you mean

[@ayemon946]

Property prices have already crashed when you adjust for inflation

[@dar799]

@@ayemon946 wow so I expect I can buy a 3 bed house and a pony for 100k. Damn just checked and prices are still rising. We can only hope though

[@jontalbot1]

30 years. For years the ratio between average earnings and average house prices was one to three. I used to teach housing development in the 90s and textbooks at the time stated this as gospel.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@stevep9221]

My friends in Portsmouth sold subject to contract for £500,000 this time last year. They found somewhere they wanted to buy and did surveys and searches. The chain broke down early summer. They had an offer yesterday for £400,000. This just goes to show the mis-accounting being done by the ONS. if the ONS where a company their directors would end up in prison. Because it is part of the Ponzi scheme dreamt up by bankers and government with quantitative easing they are beyond the law. The HPIs leave out any sale they do not like and will never divulge how they calculate their figures. This is the most corrupt industry in the history of commerce and that is a fact. People that know the truth are using snake oil salesman language every day. Charlie is the most balanced person on here but I do not know how many of these snake oil salesman sleep at night. I suppose they get away with it as the government is on their side.

[@rebornsmith7542]

I'm going to buy after the war...

[@kubajaan]

Rubble

[@apeter86]

Which one israel-gaza or china-taiwan or ukraine-russia?

[@rajomshanati]

Uk government fail to deliverd promised Too many bring people legal if facting home rants

[@stevep9221]

UK average house price in Aug 2021 was £260,575. in Jun 2022 it was £286,436 and in Jul 2022 they were £292,118. The ONS in the July 2022 Bulletin reported a yearly house price rise of 15.5% and a monthly rise of 7.4%. Do the maths and the real rise was 11.4% for the year and 1.9% for the month. That is a 400 billion mis-reporting in 1 month when things were good. The ONS now say due to a 22% reduction in house sales they are only able to process 50% of usual volumes. If the ONS was a large company they would be charged with fraud. This is a Ponzi con and it must be outed. Look at any postcode by going to Land registry sold house prices and you will see any smart person is getting a 30% reduction and the rest are being fooled by estate agents. Get 30% off (the real low estimate and not the asking price) or walk away.

[@SILKY_999]

So say for example the house is on the market for 250k how much should you be getting that house for ??

[@One-tw5nw]

That really isn't true. We sold and purchased and it was more like 2-5% (outside London between this summer and last). But with inflation factored in its closer to 20%.

[@stevep9221]

My friends in Portsmouth sold subject to contract for £500,000 this time last year and had a survey done on a house they wanted to buy. The chain broke down. Yesterday they where offered £400,000. That is 20% less than a year ago. Their needs to be an investigation into the ONS and their false account.@@SILKY_999

[@davewright9312]

I take it you like walking then...😂

[@stevep9221]

My friends in Portsmouth sold subject to contract for £500,000 this time last year. They found somewhere they wanted to buy and did surveys and searches. The chain broke down early summer. They had an offer yesterday for £400,000. This just goes to show the mis-accounting being done by the ONS. if the ONS where a company their directors would end up in prison. Because it is part of the Ponzi scheme dreamt up by bankers and government with quantitative easing they are beyond the law. The HPIs leave out any sale they do not like and will never divulge how they calculate their figures. This is the most corrupt industry in the history of commerce and that is a fact. People that know the truth are using snake oil salesman language every day. Charlie is the most balanced person on here but I do not know how many of these snake oil salesman sleep at night. I suppose they get away with it as the government is on their side.@@SILKY_999

[@grahamlaw85]

Been waiting for this vid, great job!

[@edli323]

I talked to a letting / estate agency today they told me they got more enquires in 2024 and most of them are investors starting to look for bargain and they do think house prices will start pick up from Q3 24.

[@Shini1984]

I keep hearing from real estate agents that prices will rise by at least 50% very very soon so buy now because tomorrow is too late... But then again are they legal feduciaries or just people getting paid to sell you SOMETHING, ANYTHING because they earn a commission from a sale?

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Classic! 😅😅

[@miriamllamas224]

No state agent will admit prices are going down. They want to sell today.

[@grimezi]

North East England is the best bet. Lowest earnings to house price ratio and a significant rise in the min wage come April, of which the North of England will see the greatest benefit.

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

When we buy a car on finance, you immediately lose at least the value of the VAT at 20%. So why do people, buying a home that they are going to enjoy for many years, have a panic attack at the thought it might go down a bit, before eventually going back up again, as it always does? It is nonsensical.

[@anthonylulham3473]

Not to mentions expendable costs (new locks, new kitchens, paint) that you rarely recover. There was paint on the wall when you arrived, there's paint on it now. cost you to personalise.

[@Isomoar]

How is 19 years not criminal, it's insane that people aren't out protesting daily. We've been pacified.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Agree! probably the same people who had their, jib jabs!!

[@margaretpepper3550]

In London the cost of buying or renting has gone through the roof. But so has immigration, so WTF do you expect??!!

[@lowelljohnson744]

I can't say whether it's a good or bad thing to buy here or there or now or later. The fact of the matter is that buying a house and the finances pertaining to it are a very nuanced and complex matter. Even if the price curve is rising and you end selling for way more than you bought, that doesn't necessarily make it a net gain overall. You have to factor in inflation, cost of repairs and renovation, money lost as interest on the repayments (the list goes on...) I will say this: Never get pressured into the idea of buying even if it's from the most well-intentioned people you know (like friends and family.) Just because it worked for them does not necessarily mean it will work for you. I'm not trying to preach anyone out of buying a property by the way. It might very well be that purchasing ends up being a great long-term investment for you. But whatever you do, do not cut corners on your homework. Sometimes you need to trust your intuitions. I wish I had.

[@mariuszkonieczny3393]

Thanks for the video! We are looking to buy our first property this year after 6 years of renting. We are fully aware that our monthly mortage payments will be higher then rent. But at this point main reason for it is the rise in rent. £1425 for one bed in west London area (zone 5) and we expect that to go even higher with renewal. There will be always something that others will say it's not a good time to buy but thinking long term is the key.

[@mozzila04358]

Same here . Renting 1 bed in Isle of dogs for 1550 and last week just saw that in the same block there is a flat for 1800 (and trust me they're far from being luxury, still on single glazing and electrical heating ....) I mean why would I want to pay this when I can get a 2 bed house in Loughton and pay same amount for mortgage? It's clear winner... rent is killing this nation

[@mariuszkonieczny3393]

​@@mozzila04358I fully agree. It is just matter of time or it could be already happening in certain parts of London that rents are higher then mortage rates.

[@Shini1984]

If you're ok with 50 year long mortgage, go ahead! Just make sure your work contract will last and salary will keep up with mortgage at 15%. I'm not saying it will be so. Just saying it WAS like that at some point, so it can happen again. Or just buy, pay, lose ability to pay, get kicked out, lose all paid money, buy again with 110% mortgage for 70 years that your kids will inherit. Because why not? It's as good time to buy as any! Or just move out of overpriced London to somewhere cheaper where you can afford to work and live comfortably. If you can find such a place. Just naming a few options.

[@klawlor3659]

Jeez is the world off its rocker!!! £1500 for a one bed in grotty London? £400 rent a month gets you a two bed house with driveway where I live. Surrounded by countryside and a 10-15 minute drive to the nearest big town. Why live somewhere where your salary literally covers the rent/mortgage and bills and leaves little time to live your life?

[@miriamllamas224]

A two bed terrace house with garden in East London is about £1,700.

[@therivalryan]

Is this the same crash that's been happening for last 4 years? You will see a correction which will fall inline with the normal trend...not a crash

[@jsins1081]

There will be no crash. The rich have gained millions in cash whilst not spending during COVID. Interest rate increases will simply mean middle class family homes going to rich people who are buying with cash. Until there is a considerable supply increase or a wealth tax, house prices will continue upwards

[@WillyJunior]

There will be no crash, just a gradual slide in a lot of areas in the UK. House prices never crash, they slide. -20% fall is not out of the question

[@mkoschara]

Your podcasts are both concise and comprehensive.

[@drewwagar]

A very astute observation that house prices haven't actually, when inflation is taken into account, gone up by very much at all over the last 20 years. Anyone expecting a large drop is going to be disappointed. Stagnation for a while (and thus an effective gradual drop in real terms) followed by a slow rise is most likely where we're headed.

[@andrewwotherspoona5722]

Very impressed by this channels output. Balanced view of the housing market.

[@ianmorris1981]

The part buy/part rent scheme seems to keep house prices artificially high. Where i live there have been lots of new builds, increasing the supply of homes. But instead of just putting them all on at the market value for the area, they know that the people wanting to buy them cant afford them. If you cant sell, then prices would naturally fall a bit, but this would cause house prices in the area to fall as well. So they offer these part buy/part rent options instead. Its almost an admission that people still cant afford a house but get around this inconvenient truth by creating these schemes instead of letting the market find its true level.

[@zippyoffrainbow8174]

Even building 1000’s of new houses in the uk won’t necessarily bring prices down, because the labour and material costs are so expensive..

[@yellowgreen5229]

Don't buy, emigrate.

[@klawlor3659]

Totally agree. There's better countries out there where you can afford to live and where the quality of life is better. Who'd advocate staying in a country with high house prices, crumbling infrastructure, poor health facilities, high taxation, long working hours, crap weather, crap corrupt government...

[@yellowgreen5229]

@@klawlor3659 the thing is as Britain gets neoliberalised it is ecconomicly good for old and rich people but much worse for poor and young, also by working abroad you can increase (imperceptibly) the ecconomy of (ideally) developing ecconomies AND later when Britain collapses (too many old top heavy, house prices crash, fertility crash, immigration tensionsleading to fascism) you can always return, hopefully to do the anti-capitalist revolution, but even then it may not even be desirable if a niche can be found as cosmopolitanism is always more productive in the long term than the current development of ethno-nationalism that will kill us all.

[@0runny]

Completely and utterly agree with you

[@klawlor3659]

@@yellowgreen5229 All good points. As for fascism, I think you'll find we're already there.

[@lucasdeyton8842]

this video could've been a minute (not criticising the content at all). House prices will never drop significantly when demand completely outstrips supply. We are hundreds of thousands of houses short a year to match demand, so the gap of available housing vs housing demand is continuing to grow every single year.

[@ratttttyyy]

I'm just buying my first home. I've managed to get about 6% off their initial asking price. I still think I'm overpaying but I don't have much option now in my mind. Yes, I could go and rent, but where? Poorly maintained, crappy house in an undesirable location for the similar price of what I'm getting? - not with a young family. The housing market is fucked but I'm curious where it will be in 10-20 years when the Boomers starting dying off and all these £500k+ 4 bedroom homes come onto the market. Who is going to buying them....?

[@SILKY_999]

That’s shame mate you should be pushing for at least 10percent

[@Shini1984]

The kids of those boomers will be living in those houses, so they won't be hitting the market. How do I know? Easy. You think they moved out? In this market? Ha. Don't expect prices to drop just because boomers will start to die. Bills and Elons and Black Rock n Stones will come and buy up all our houses. Because they can.

[@Artur-gn7ym]

Well done! All the best with your house! Most people think they can afford a home like afford an Iphone.

[@apeter86]

The question is what is the future of the economy in 10-20 years. That is what a lot of people don't see. It looks bleak for western economies with lot of boomers relying on healthcare and very few people to pay taxes due to declining population. I think most of the boomers will hand over their houses to their children and they will sit on it just like now. The key is how economy does in the future and also how much more QE that central banks have appetite for.

[@ratttttyyy]

@@SILKY_999 I'm not sure about 'shame' because I'm getting a home which ticks a lot of our boxes. Maybe ask again in 5 years :D

[@rinnin]

Not falling here & either rising or levelling off compared to pre-COVID but still not falling.

[@jmc6687]

prices may dip a little but long term they will rise, you can either be an owner or a renter....but prices will still go up, at least if you buy then one day its all yours, if you rent, then you rent for life and rent will only ever keep going up.

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

You should never wait to buy a home. It doesn't matter what the market is doing. And if you buy from a motivated seller on something that needs a bit of work, this is much better than trying to time a market and risk getting left behind as your cash deposit devalues in the bank.

[@MrJeffHead]

That would have been absoultely terrible advice in 2007 and 2008

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

@@MrJeffHeadWhat was the average house price in 2007? How long was the correction to recover? How much mortgage balance would have been paid down from 2007 to 2011 at which point the cycle had completed. You don't know what you are talking about. I was still buying property in 2007 that needed work, and still made money even during the correction. And, if you are not selling it is irrelevant.

[@moominmay]

@@user-gz6tx6yp3vI think you’re right. Sometimes you just have to go first it if you need the stability of a home. I bought during COVID when house prices started aggressively rising but I was in a mentally bad place and needed to get out so I bought. I did my maths and projected costs if my rates were to triple and as soon as I git everything to add up I went for it. The rates in 2020 were lower and I also didn’t have to pay stamp duty. So you just have to figure out what works for you. I’m glad I didn’t listen to everyone keeping on saying wait until after COVID as I reckon I’d have worse and thus fewer options. More importantly I’m mentally thriving in my new home.

[@dlc2479]

​@user-gz6tx6yp3v it only recovered recently and here we are again heading for another slide....property doesn't always go up unlike you were made to believe

[@user-gz6tx6yp3v]

@@dlc2479 Thr market had fully recovered in 2012. That's 12 years ago. You have no clue. The other thing is, I know property always goes up. It depends what time frame you view. And, I make gains even when the market goes down in the short term because when I buy, I'm buying below market value anyway, then adding value to the property. The market could go up, down, sideways and it doesn't matter. The market is irrelevant to me especially over a 10 year time frame

[@loooodoooog]

Just wanted to congratulate you on your judgment in going with a tracker mortgage. Given the news of the interest rate cuts from certain banks yesterday. Well done 👍🏼

[@moominmay]

I went onto a fixed rate of 2.12 in Dec 2020 for 10 years. Soooo glad I did! 😅

[@JohnBrown-c4v]

Capital Economics +3% Why is 2 forecast Knight Frank? Should be 1 new from January + 3%

[@DowntownR]

This is the only balanced YT property / economics site. A consumer led recession is probably already here. The MSM and a lot of pundits underestimate consumer sentiment as a powerful force. Over focus on interest rates and affordability has no impact if you’re worried about losing your job.

[@iwasntaguntilimovedouttheh3961]

Pls adjust for inflation house prices are down 22% from quarter 3 2007 peak, down 15.7% from last peak cycle quarter 4 2022. These are the falls as of this week.

[@One-tw5nw]

This... they HAVE already fallen significantly just relative to everything else, not past values.

[@iwasntaguntilimovedouttheh3961]

@@One-tw5nw That's inflation, even though the monetary value as not fallen significantly, when adjusted for inflation it's fallen by the figures shown.

[@justing7168]

Q) What percentage increase have "middle class" and professional salaries increased by since 2007? For most the increase is very small and is out of scale with the housing value increases.

[@iwasntaguntilimovedouttheh3961]

@@justing7168 I don't know about middle class wages figures alone but another financial channel I watched today broke this down, wages have increased significantly compared to house prices.

[@iwasntaguntilimovedouttheh3961]

@@justing7168 since Jan 2015: s&p has gone up 121.4% Rent prices have gone up 52.3% Wages have gone up 39.9% Inflation has gone up 31.6% House prices have gone up 23.9%

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

You can’t predict a crash. But you can still keep saving

[@MrJeffHead]

You can

[@fortune-cookie-monster]

@@MrJeffHead If you're lucky

[@elsupremo101]

hi there your statistics are in general terms applying to the UK by the look of it but how about London ?

[@andrewhobson]

What are swap rates, what are they for, and how are they worked out? I don't think the housing market is going crash or correct down. After 50 years or so, I think it is going to change from an up trend to a down trend.

[@sharon2839]

How can you check whether a property on zoopla has potential to improve?

[@bigclout0056]

This channel is excellent!

[@FiscalWoofer]

What is the inflation adjusted house price? My guess is they have lost a lot of price compared to say the DOW in USD. If prices are flat as a number they are losing close to 11% a year since 2022.

[@alexkelly757]

If inflation / house prices are down and wages are still below inflation. Where has the wealth being redistributed to?

[@mikeltsmith]

Thanks for this. Very informative!

[@fozzarooo]

If 1% deposits are announced in the next budget, expect house prices the shoot up through the roof.

[@aceofspades5786]

and falling interest rates, as anticipated

[@SILKY_999]

When will the next budget be announced?

[@fozzarooo]

@@SILKY_999 6th March

[@jibinnjonginyil]

Still have to afford monthly payment at 5.5% of 99% mortgage. There is no getting out of this.

[@SILKY_999]

@@jibinnjonginyil yes can you image the monthly payments on that 😂

[@WillyJunior]

Great summary. Thanks.

[@joestables2600]

Do you think 4-5 years time is a good time to buy? Assuming I am able to save ~6k per year, I will have enough for a deposit on a 250k house in 4-5 years time.

[@myafrosheen]

Depends. If you wanted a £30k deposit that means a £225k mortgage so divide that by 4.5 to see the salary needed to qualify for that

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

It's only this year that most people start to come off the sweet 5 year mortgage deals. 24/25 wtll be key to uk housing.

[@laup4321]

Very informative

[@FamousInvestingQuotes]

Nice video.

[@economicshelp]

Thanks!

[@D-A-H8585]

How prices will never fall. Bankers will never be strict to what they lend out. The usurious bankers will herd people towards living in bedrooms.

[@kjkj4725]

I am not taking additional 10 years of mortgage just because of lack of patience. I will wait it out. With more and more cash. Demographic collapse and cut on immigration will fix things sooner or later. I will wait even if it’s another 10 years. Average young person is unable to buy houses. In majority of European countries family houses are not a good snack for investors. I will be patient.

[@anthonylulham3473]

This isnt a sensible assumption as 10 years is ~12% of your life, and ~20% of your working life. The country will continue to fill with immigrants, Foreign investors will continue to but, and you'd have paid ten years of someone elses mortgage. Not to mention not improving your own area and home. Dont get me wrong i dont like spending £100 at B&Q on wall filler and paint but i do like improving my property.

[@here_we_go_again2571]

Hmm .... Will YOU have a job after the real estate crash? A crash which probably will precipitate a banking crash too; as in 2008.

[@fortune-cookie-monster]

If we are talking about the term of a mortgage, the answer is almost certainly no. Technological advancements are already taking jobs. Repetitive jobs like supermarket till workers and immigration officers who check passports have already reduced massively. Amazon have robotic shelves that scoot around huge warehouses whenever an order is placed. The human jobs there are fewer and literally further between. Eventually delivery drivers etc. will lose out to self driving vehicles too. Just yesterday, the news in the UK was all about The Royal Mail needing to reduce post deliveries from 6 days a week to 3 days a week. This will almost certainly happen (after the election), partly because fewer letters are needed but mostly because the service was privatised and must turn a profit or lose share value. With fewer people paying for their service, the only way to turn a profit is to reduce their staff numbers. Though, you had to look pretty hard in the news to see that mentioned. But highly skilled jobs, like IT, medicine, Movie and TV production, Music industry, lawyers and accountants are also going to suffer the same fate. Why? Because the bulk of these roles are - or will be fairly soon - easier and more cost effective for AI to do. Here's an example that might be the case in the next couple of years. A heart surgeon takes years to learn and hone their skills. By the time they are really experienced, they are probably over 45-50 years old, with poorer eye sight, shakier hands, less mental stamina etc. I know this is true, I'm 49! An AI computer built to do brain surgery on the other hand will only get better over time. Partly through technological improvements and partly because every single one in the world will learn instantly from every other surgery being done world wide. So within a few months, it will have significantly more experience than the best heart surgeon would amass in several lifetimes - and it will effortlessly stay up to date and be cheaper to run. There are jobs that might last longer though. A nurse's role is much more varied and complex for AI to replace than a doctor. People will also probably always value the human interaction a nurse provides, and nurses are cheaper to employ too. So, in summary, no. It's highly unlikely that the vast majority of people will have a job before their mortgage term ends. Capitalism as we know it has probably almost run its course, hence the sheer number of giant environmental, economic and geo-political issues. The real questions are; how will societies organise and pay for themselves when almost nobody has a job? And in the context of this channel, how will that affect houses?

[@adambartlett6277]

There's not going to be a crash

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Wake wakey! House prices will be the last of our worries, during the coming years!!

[@mikeelledge9904]

So misleading, house prices falling doesn’t mean depreciation, appreciation has merely slowed. You have to ask why they want to spin the data this way… what’s their agenda?

[@Grandude77]

What crash? The rich have grown their wealth massively and are using this money to buy houses. Property will remain unaffordable for workers and this will not reduce prices or demand. The only solution is to increase the social housing stock and reduce rents.

[@MrJeffHead]

That's not true. Generally the rich arent investing in property which is why its declining. Why would i buy a house for 300k with increased tenant rights, 40% tax, stagnating / falling market, increased running costs when i could put that 300k towards a deposit to buy a business for a mill making 300k net a year?

[@johnristheanswer]

What crash is that ?

[@yowhaatsup]

It's called deez

[@thaumaturgeishere331]

Nice.

[@oscargg581]

Thanks

[@pip1723]

Can't time the market .

[@noiseworks]

if you work in the service industry, any type, you will be unemployed by then end of 2025

[@bluceree7312]

The government pumped £450 billion in quantitative easing. Until this money is taken from the market and sunk into something else, like government investments in social housing, renewable projects, or even HS2, etc. this money will keep circulating and propping up inflation for the foreseeable future. Its time for wealth redistribution. Tax the rich to save them from themselves.

[@adamrandles4055]

Hot tip: There isn’t going to be a crash

[@daedaluxe]

I'll wait until I can get a 3% mortgage so I'm not paying 1.5x the list price of the house at 6%, lol.

[@MrJeffHead]

3% mortgage will be more than 1.5x list price if its over 20 years.

[@MrKarelKosa]

mate whats the point showing us 1 year old statistics and graphs ?? There wasn't any of them up to date in your video !

[@mihail4391]

Has anyone else felt that a bit more structure would be beneficial?

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Just get a motorhome or van! Most won't as they still believe property will continue to value lol House prices will be the last of our worries during the coming years, people can be so blind!

[@SILKY_999]

15 billionaires building bunkers worth millions of dollars news just come out wonder what they know what we don’t ……..

[@blakegarritson1056]

I dont want a house... i just want a hone for my family 😢

[@DARRENJOHNHARRIS1]

What crash

[@ripped101]

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:14 *💰 Despite modest declines, house price to income ratios remain high, impacting housing affordability, especially with high interest rates and a weak economy.* 01:51 *📉 Forecasters anticipate a decrease in house prices by 2025, suggesting potential buyers need not rush into purchasing immediately.* 03:00 *📉 Inflation trends and market reactions play a significant role in shaping house price forecasts, with recent data indicating a potential upward revision.* 05:42 *🏠 The upcoming election and budget announcements may introduce policies affecting housing affordability and market dynamics, influencing buyer decisions.* 08:29 *🌍 Regional variations in housing market conditions highlight disparities in affordability and investment potential across different areas.* 10:34 *💼 Real house prices, adjusted for inflation, reveal a nuanced perspective on housing market stability and investment prospects.* 11:29 *📊 Forecasts vary, with predictions ranging from small declines to modest rises in house prices for the upcoming year, indicating uncertainty in market direction.* 13:30 *💼 Personal circumstances and affordability should drive the decision to buy rather than speculation on market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of individual financial assessments.*

[@puppets.and.muppets]

i no longer want or need one. im planning on moving out of the uk.

[@DiscoDrew]

Please do not take this video as financial advice.

[@crayontom9687]

Haha, cheers for this Chicken Little. Bubble Boy

[@WillyJunior]

Bubble boy. What is that supposed to mean

[@rajomshanati]

Illgel and legal Migration crisis ranting market in the UK

[@withoutwroeirs]

No. Next.

[@angelachanelhuang1651]

cool

[@rytiskurcinskas7179]

what crash ? why would here be a crash. all these stupid youtubers keep saying that since 2020 and nothing has happened

[@Vlogged-off]

Hahhahaqhahh