The housing market crash is just beginning | Economics | The New Statesman

House prices are falling, rents are rising, and pubs, clubs and our cultural spaces are disappearing due to landlordism.
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Anoosh Chakelian, Britain editor, is joined by our business editor, Will Dunn, and assistant culture editor, Ellen Peirson-Hagger, to discuss the housing market crash, the impact of people moving out of London and landlordism on renters, both private and commercial.
Read all the pieces mentioned in this video here:
Will's piece - www.newstatesman.com/business...
Ellen's piece - www.newstatesman.com/culture/...
Anoosh's pieces - www.newstatesman.com/politics...
www.newstatesman.com/the-week...
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[@user-mq2kt1kx1c]

I bought a house in the early 90s crash when people were selling in negative equity. I didn’t buy it as an investment but a family home. And the interest rate was over 8% back then. I bought it when I earned only £13k, had to eat beans on toast and do without luxuries for a year but it gave my son a family home and stability. I only decided to buy because the council said as I was working I could rent after I was made homeless with a baby, I so saved and bought a home. Now 30 years later I sold my 3 bed detached home after my youngest went to Uni, have downsized and have no mortgage . Gosh, wasn’t I lucky but now my oldest with his own family can’t afford to do the same, even with two people working - it’s heartbreaking. I now need to die so he can have money to buy his first family home. I’m not interested in making money of a house, a house is a home. The lack of affordable housing in the South East of England is disgusting!

[@zuzanazuscinova5209]

Shouldn't have sold it

[@HermanWillems]

Im from the Netherlands. You think it's different somewhere else? It's everywhere in the world. :)

[@thecrimsondragon9744]

You're one of the very few of your generation who actually empathise with the younger generations.

[@marymiah7164]

@@zuzanazuscinova5209 unfortunately, I had to. Too long a story to go into but I wish I didn’t have to. Still I’m in a better place for getting the hell out of there.

[@marymiah7164]

@@thecrimsondragon9744 I’m just trying to put myself in the younger generations shoes. Really each generation should be moving ahead not backwards!

[@flowerpower7288]

There are currently over 30,000 empty properties in London. Mostly in Kensington and Chelsea. We DO NOT have a housing crisis, we have a distribution of wealth crisis.

[@matty506]

In london? Whats 30k houses gonna do for 10million people. We are about 5 million homes short.

[@petercoekin5419]

Correct. London landlords don't borrow money to fund their purchase, it is a way of holding value

[@normanpearson8753]

We always will , quite rightly , it encourages people to strive harder , and gives the less well off their benefits from the better offs' taxes .

[@JohnMoseley]

@@normanpearson8753 'You'll never be able to afford your own home. Work harder! You still won't be able to.' Yeah, that's super incentivising.

[@dallysinghson5569]

30k houses can host at least a family each, so potentially 3 person per household and you already have 100k people in a house, freeing up apartments for rent or w/e at cheaper prices...

[@louiswilliamterminator2887]

The UK needs a political party that actually represents the interests of ordinary working people

[@graemebarriball303]

Which party is that then?

[@louiswilliamterminator2887]

@@graemebarriball303 probably none that exist, and most definitely not Labour that was supposed to represent the working class. These days it only represents the non-working, wealthy off-shore elites, migrants and non-working Brits (in that order of priority)

[@dallysinghson5569]

UKIP?

[@ConstructiveMinds100]

Mr U Turn Starmer 😂😂😂

[@dondoodat]

As renting out property is so profitable you'd think councils would buy up cheap property and rent it to low-earners that currently require Housing Benefit. That would create an income for the councils so they could lower Council Tax and reduce expenditure on benefits. They could call them Council Houses, or something.

[@oneukum]

If they require benefits, either they'd have to pay the benefits anyway, or they'll have to accept lower rents, which would not cover the capital expenditures. No, Britain needs to allow more building. Much more building.

[@george52066]

because Thatcher sold off Councils' housing stock in the "Right to Buy" scheme in the 1980s, where people could buy houses for a 1/3 discount below market rate. These houses were never replaced by rebuilding for a variety of complex reasons.

[@dondoodat]

​@@george52066 One third discount ? I know of houses valued at £200k that were sold to tenants for less than £5I.

[@dondoodat]

​@@oneukum Council rents could easily be cheaper to avoid the use of benefits. What point would there be in a council charging so much they then had to subsidise it ?

[@eightiesmusic1984]

@@george52066 It is because councils were banned from using the money from council house sales to build new council housing. It was ideological as part of the Thatcher project to shrink the role of the state. Ideology over the interests of the people all the time but the voters were stupid enough to fall for it.

[@user-ok7lw5zf4h]

Wow spot on! I struggled for years in London and eventually moved out and now own. I don't care that house prices are falling. Whichever house I buy next will be cheaper. This is good news for the young, and the only travesty is that rents are going up. The whole situation has been very unfair for decades. There is a cancer in London where society is failing apart over landlords taking artificial profits off young people. Teachers should never be forced to live in boats on the canals. Any smart teacher in the UK would not work in London, and consequently any teacher in London will be temporary or be bad. This is why Britain is no longer an empire. This is why we are regressing in the world. Lets have some real alternatives to London. Let's spread ourselves out and take power away from the vested interests that can control our society because its all focused in London.

[@daraorourke5798]

Well said

[@madameversiera]

That's so true, I'm young working in London and I feel trap paying 80% of my hardwork money to landlords. It's become a very hard situation, but I havenot many other choices.

[@HermanWillems]

The cancer is the special right of the City Of London with their tax evasion island.

[@dallysinghson5569]

If you're paying 80% of your wages in rent, that is utterly on you. You don't earn enough to live in the area, move out and find another job.

[@user-ok7lw5zf4h]

Really? What if you don't have a choice? What if you are a carer living near your mum and she needs you to be near in order to help her get to the doctor? What if you are a fireman, and where you live happens to be the cheapest place that is commutable to work? Or your child is disabled and goes to a special school. Who said anything about 80% anyway? I didn't spend that much when I lived in London. Half my wages went on rent, not 80%. However today, I have a mortgage in Scotland, and my 'rent' is a tiny fraction of my income. My day rate is less so its not all good news. London has suffered as I am no longer available, contributing the the supply of labour in that region, and in GDP terms I'm less productive, as my absolute income is less than it was. I essentially agree with you. People who live in London should move out as quickly as they can. Not all of them can however, and I don't agree that the current system of house building is 'free market' and therefore it's on the consumer to choose better. @@dallysinghson5569

[@rodbenson5879]

One of the depressing things about living in England in 2023 is it feels as if the wealthy are simply becoming more and more greedy. Whatever they have is never ever enough and while this statement has always been true, it seems that the sentiment is forever becoming more extreme.

[@eightiesmusic1984]

It is the most unequal country in Europe, except Bulgaria. The poorest third of the population in Eastern Europe are richer than the poorest third in Britain. If the economy of London and the South East is taken out of the equation, Britain's economy overall is worth less than that of Mississippi, America's poorest state. Private affluence and public squalor is the result of 43 years of Thatcherism/ neoliberalism, aided and abetted by Labour's' surrender to the toxic ideology that has destroyed the UK economy and its society. We live in Thatcher's Britain today as a result of her egregious policies and the way neoliberalism is woven into the fabric of almost every facet of society/ economy.

[@MrJudgementday99]

@@eightiesmusic1984 up the revolution. It is also interesting that 20%of Manchester and 25% of Liverpool are on sickness benefits. Also if you compare Scotland and Wales that have been run by the SNP and Labour, to England then the first two are a car crash and can boast the highest drug addicts per capita or NHS that are the worst in the UK. Theses Tories have been bad the the alternative would destroy the country, the one saving grace is we didn’t get Corbyn

[@ismailajassey8664]

Capitalism 🎉

[@MrJonnyl123]

Britain is a very poor country with a few very rich people living in it now and well on the way to the third world. Especially if the tories get back in

[@joemq]

I got charged £40 for not cleaning a bath plug. After 20k in rent. The greed is off the charts.

[@martindumont5553]

The first big mistake was to make housing a market. A house isn’t an asset in the usual sense because if you own one and decide to sell it, unless you plan on living in your car, the only thing you’re going to buy is another house. The whole economy is propped up on this massive bubble and everyone has too much invested (literally) in the status quo for it to change. We used to have a perfectly good, “organic” system that let move around between Private rented, social housing and owner occupation as their circumstances demanded. Now after putting everything into home ownership we’ve completely upset the balance and backed ourselves into a massive crisis that only suits a small number of people.

[@Theother1089]

When was this perfect balance? The crises is 100 % down to the UK's population rising far faster than infrastructure could ever keep up, but you be considered fascist to stem the tide, like charging people to have children as it's a choice, giving incentives to couples to only have one child and to stop housing asylum seekers etc, without these measures things will get worse.

[@jonathanchester5916]

@@Theother1089 It's completely untrue. The UK had, until the mid-70's a huge stock of social housing. My parents lived in one. I was born into one. Those units were all sold off in a government scheme to make us all owners. They were sold under market value as an incentive. Add to that fact women entering the work force on masse and the housing market is not a test of supply vs demand in the traditional sense - it has become a market driven by how much money can be sucked out of the average pocket knowing that we all need somewhere to live.

[@Theother1089]

@@jonathanchester5916 of course it's supply and demand, have too much of something and it drops in value, is something is rare, it becomes more valuable. When Thatcher sold off the council stock, it started a whole new industry in home improvement and created jobs, also she wasn't aware that mass immigration would put pressure on the housing market, your plain wrong if you think 8.5 million addition to the UK population has no affect on housing stock.

[@JohnnyinMN]

Neo-liberalism policies and socialism created this issue. Say goodbye to the 6-week vacations too. Brexit, baby!

[@dallysinghson5569]

Population is growing everywhere. Everywhere. Yet despite your Brexit you still couldn't find success in fascism XD

[@babybluesky9238]

In true housing market crash style, everybody with a vested interest is denying it is even possible that a housing crash could ever happen.

[@markwelch3564]

Which in true financial crash style, will just delay it at the cost of making it more disastrous when it does happen

[@andymaidment111]

Well, its already happening.

[@thesleeplessmn]

The housing crash won’t happen until 2026, if you believe the 18yr land price cycle. Real or nominal losses is the question to be answered.

[@kanedNunable]

too many rich people stand to lose a lot of it really happens so it will be propped up, just no help for the average person who risks losing their home to repossession. because then banks sell house cheap for cash to landlords. all to the plan.

[@markwelch3564]

@@kanedNunable but we're already in the "propping up" phase. Next comes the "running out of schemes for propping it up" phase

[@yetanotherbassdude]

Will's point at 16:29 about economic activity kind of got glossed over in this discussion, but while the loss of arts venues is still terrible, it really is almost a side-issue of this far bigger problem that Will talks about here. The drain that the under-regulated landlord sector imposes on every other business in our economy is a stranglehold that chokes out any prospect of real growth in this country. So many smaller businesses that create jobs, bring in investment, and actually generate economic activity in our local economies and communities are being bled dry by commercial landlords who have even fewer regulations on them than the scant provision private tenants have. Reforming both commercial and private landlords to make them contribute to the economy and to give long-term stability to their tenants could well be the single best thing we could do to improve this country and the lives of ordinary people here.

[@nonexistent5030]

you have a typo: "drain that the under-regulated landlord sector imposes on every other business in our economy is a stranglehold that chokes out any prospect of real growth in this country" is supposed to read "drain that the 'overuse of debt by the government which continues to drive inflation and interest rates astronomically higher' imposes on every other business in our economy is a stranglehold that chokes out any prospect of real growth in this country"

[@petercape2331]

So you would recommend more state intervention?

[@graemebarriball303]

Clearly you have little knowledge of commercial property. In general commercial landlords are content to provide tenants with long leases, with rent reviews clearly defined at the outset. Tenants also often have the automatic right to extend their lease at the end of the term, unless the landlord wishes to occupy the premises or provisions for vacant possession are set out at the tenancy commencement. Either way the tenant goes in to the lease fully informed. The discussion in this film is largely economically ignorant. Both large and Small businesses often prefer to rent their property rather than tie up capital in an illiquid asset. Just as many people early in their career prefer the flexibility of renting a property rather than buying in an area where they may not stay. In any market if you want to reduce the cost you need supply to exceed or at least keep pace with, demand. We have seen that dynamic reduce retail sector rents, as supply exceeds demand from retailers, the office sector is now witnessing the same supply dynamic impacting office rents. The only reason housing in the UK is expensive is due to deliberately restrictive planning policy. The councils that are moaning about the cost of housing are the same councils that refuse applications for new house building. If they want cheaper homes for people they need to make land for housing cheaper. You do that by increasing supply. Anyone who says otherwise is lying, as all politicians do on this subject.

[@timmk94]

@@nonexistent5030 I would argue that it's the misuse of debt, not the overuse. The system this country uses for QE is absolutley bonkers and the major driver for inflations and governement spending.

[@djbrock65]

😐

[@heem6619]

Until there is a widespread acceptance that high house prices are bad for the overall economy the housing disaster will continue.

[@Tom-wy5up]

The real estate bubble also massively effects the price of anything you buy. Whether from a supermarket, small shop or restaurant, how much you pay for a gym, how much it costs to watch a local sports team etc etc. The whole thing has become like a private tax, typically the largest tax a normal earner will pay and the vast majority of those vast proceeds (generally) go to the people who need it least.

[@madameversiera]

That's why I can't stand those customers (usually old) who complain about prices of food and drinks in my shop. I understand the cost of living is high but these people taking it on shops and cinemas are so unaware and arrogant because they never think shop owners have themselves huge rents to pay and do not live rent free in London. So the prices get higher to make possible for workers to barely afford these huge rents. (a small room is around 800 pounds)

[@andrew1230981]

An interesting social impact is the displacement of renters in other cites who are displaced by renters moving out of London but earning London wages, thinking particularly of cites like Bristol and Southampton.

[@jujuUK68]

Or even just outside London. My near to M23/M25 surrey market town has been overrun by people leaving London. Oh, and because we have a large hospital, and a couple of indian companies, a huge uptick in econimic migrants. Meaning rents are shooting through the roof, as these migrants will as a family, rent unsuitable small 1 bed flats, leaving nothing for lower income people. I am now on a roughly average wage, paying nearly 50% rent to a wealthy landlord with 21 properties. all paid for by someone else but the owner!

[@liszaf3976]

Yes who have been displaced themselves from their home city, very often not out of choice!!!! We were priced out of London years ago, it has always amazed me that foreigners from all backgrounds who move to the UK chose London to live when original Londoners can not afford to live there themselves! I always wonder how they can afford it!!!

[@magicalumbrella7151]

Home counties in particular have been really suffering from this with landlords now wanting to charge London prices for little boxes to live in!

[@marccarter1350]

Yep, i had to move out of Bristol. I could afford those rents any longer. It was cheaper for me to buy a boat, infact, i pay half on that loan in what i did in rent in Bristol in the end. The rents there are now insane!

[@madameversiera]

Well, you can't do that if you work in hopsitality....

[@ChrisinHove]

Prices only crash when there is a significant number of distressed sellers that HAVE to sell. If lenders don’t repossess homes in significant numbers, that won’t happen.

[@kevoreilly6557]

Agreed - too much under supply, too much equity in 80% of homes, 30% no debt

[@michaelbananas461]

​@@kevoreilly6557all assets are priced at the margins, housing more than any other... In the great recession, less than 5% of mortgage holders had their homes repossessed... So 95% of people can be in perfectly good shape and a crash will still occur.. People tend to forget that the great depression was actually great for a large percentage of the population, just not those with huge debt or assets. If you were one of the 70% who kept their job, your purchasing power increased...

[@jhutfre4855]

People don't understand no one will sell you their house for peanuts. Why would they? Would you sell it if you had one? People should start working, move places maybe, and buy something not too fancy. It was never easy.

[@ooslum]

​@@jhutfre4855Guessing you haven't seen a house price crash yet. There will be one along soon, if this isn't it there is even more liklihood of an even bigger one developing.

[@neildee9834]

​@@jhutfre4855often it is not the general seller that leads the price slide. Probate for instance is an example. If you inherit a home for from a parent it is a liability until the asset is realised (unless you are wealthy enough to cope with the bills and maintenance) If it has been on the market 9 months or more you might happily sell at any price. Same goes for repossessions. One two bedroom terrace in Hull was on at £73k, reduced to £65k and then sold recently at £50k after an open bid. Estate agents also lead the way, as, used to higher salaries with regular commission they begin to struggle and so will sell your home at any price to get a sale. Phrases like "have to be more realistic with your pricing " reappear, and the slide begins. Staying put makes good sense but there are always some folk that are just desperate to sell or move

[@simona2u]

This is great. Unaffordable house prices reduced to unaffordable house prices!

[@thecrimsondragon9744]

Ikr... whenever I hear about developers building 'affordable housing', I scoff. Seen the prices and they are anything but affordable.

[@mattjones977]

We have collectively commodified every aspect of our lives. We are seeing the great transfer to the big global investment entities. In 20 years time the majority will live in homes owned by an investment fund, they will just pay rent to live in a soulless bland flat or new housing estate.

[@eightiesmusic1984]

First sentence absolutely nails it. Commodification/ neoliberalism has infected almost every aspect of life for decades that most people have no clue that it was and could still be very different. That said, the fact it is embedded so successfully and people do not join the dots makes it much more difficult, perhaps even impossible that it will be reversed, especially as the political classes are committed to its maintenance forevermore.

[@worldofjonny2]

Agree 100%, I always find it strange that people miss the forest for the tree's in these conversations, always focus on the symptoms but not the root cause of the problem - it's almost as if people are in a constant state of suprise when these issues come up.

[@eightiesmusic1984]

@@worldofjonny2 Precisely. Einstein was right when he spoke of doing the same things that do not work repeatedly and expecting a different result, or words to that effect.

[@Thereishope664]

The problem is not enough houses but too many people.

[@user-bt8cz9nv4x]

I think you are right! 66 million on an island the size of Oregon in the US! It’s like rats in a maze! Too many rats, in this analogy, and they start attacking one another over space and food!

[@capri2673]

Nah, let's have another 747,000 in next year! What could possibly go wrong?!

[@nickross4307]

Ban all foreign ownership of all or any property in the UK - and through offshore companies.

[@nescius2]

and when you do, and situation wont change, what then? its your own, lol

[@roastnut]

Sounds like another Brexit like "solution". Let's blame the foreigners for the housing crisis....!@@nescius2

[@nescius2]

@@roastnutexactly my point

[@capri2673]

@@roastnutWell, 747,000 immigrants in one year. Do you think that's a good idea? If you do, shame on you.

[@roastnut]

@@capri2673 If you look at the composition of that number, 400k are international students and 300k are skilled non eu workers... The UK actually needs new immigrants to support the ever increasing older population. UK is going down the drain with its self destructive policies and thinking. The UK is lucky that that many skilled workers and international students still want to come.

[@jezlawrence720]

...and long may the house price crash continue. If ANY govt over the last 40 years had wanted to avoid a crash, they should've been building more houses so as to keep the prices level. They should've introduced some rent controls (after all, they restrict what someone on benefits is allowed to get based on the local average rents, so controlling rent means controlling benefit bill). They should've increased stamp duty. And of course they should've paid more attention to how banks were leveraging their debt long before 2008 forced a massive bailout. But they wanted house prices to go up just for sitting there cos it's an easy win for them with voters. It lets them pretend GDP and wealth has increased but it's just a virtual increase - a bubble that must pop. They didn't. And the Great British Public, as ever, just kept doubling down on the vote yourself rich scheme and to hell with the long term consequences. So welcome to the consequences of that 40 years of nimbyism, obsessing over "line go up=good" when it comes to property, and cowardice when it comes to tackling the entitlement of homeowners, UK. ...and yes, I do in fact own my own home. I bought at just the right time in the 90s before labour ended up tripling house prices, and I didn't buy beyond my means (i.e. 3-5x salary, compromising on location and quality in order to not open myself to this exact current inflation issue because I was alive in the 80s and not wandering around pretending my parents weren't working themselves ragged to cope with the high interest rates and I wanted none of *that* thank you) and of course I've also just been very lucky in terms of timing too. But the point is if greed=good then I *should* be upset about house prices falling but the thing is... greed isn't good, at a socio-macro level. It's time for a major readjustment. We could have done it voluntarily with management and accepting less free wealth for a lucky few along the way, but we chose to wait and pretend the situation was great because homeowner assets were rising in value for no good reason... and now we're forced and it'll hurt a lot more. See also Climate Change. Slow clap humanity, shot yourself in the foot again thanks to short termist greed and a total inability to face into the wind.

[@Bevan1988]

Hmm. There are ways to deflate house prices without cheering on a more violent crash that will disproportionately affect the poorest/youngest homeowners who spent a decade or more working their ass off to get a foot on the ladder. Just because you have the privilege of being in a position to not have real consequences to your home losing value.

[@jezlawrence720]

@@Bevan1988 you're right actually. That wasn't my intent, but looked at it through that lens i appreciate how crass I sounded. My point is mostly that this has been a long time coming and is now mostly unavoidable. The question is indeed what you or can do for the cohort that entered the market within the last x years, with the hardest choices being what X can or should be. But I would suggest a good first step would be to insist that all landlords should be subject to the same or similar right to buy as councils (or ideally scrapping or curtailing right to buy but giving councils money to build and maintain social housing. My point being to relevel the playing field because social right to buy has driven the unbalancing too) Additionally, the introduction of homeowner mortgages with long term fixed rates linked somehow to the inflation *target*, underpinned by govt guarantees as with savings, so that passive asset inflation isn't contributing to general inflation. Something like that might help. It needs a package of short term measures alongside long term structural changes, but there's no stopping a short term crash now.

[@user-sg2jo8hz8d]

​@@jezlawrence720sounds good x

[@user-jn1qe9og5n]

No crash in prices here in Wiltshire...

[@Tony_Teacake]

​@@user-jn1qe9og5nOh no not in your area. I've heard this tune so many times. Buckle up pal as this crash is going to get really ugly.

[@suzilouden5964]

We moved to France 15yrs ago......best move ever. Our grandkids will one day, still be able to afford housing - rental or owning.

[@user-ol3xe5fz4u]

my eldest son has just moved to Vietnam..phew!!!!

[@indiannajames8428]

Can you help me join the dots? I haven't worked out how moving to France will help your grandchildren afford to buy or rent a house, would that be in France or the UK?

[@suzilouden5964]

@@indiannajames8428 our children & grandchildren also live in France (joining the dots 😊)

[@sirrobinofloxley7156]

@@indiannajames8428 France's population is also being managed to die off, so they have a tremendous amount of empty properties. People from UK couldn't afford Ireland, Scandinavia, Germany etc, but France is just next door, so it can be a speculative investment that 'seems' secure. I think you call it 'White Flight' in the US?

[@susanoakes2273]

@@indiannajames8428 Hello Indiannajames, France, like many other European countries already has designated zones for industrial, commercial and residiential building, plus zones specified for agriculutre, forestry, viticulture and "wild". This means that planning applications can go ahead much more easily than in the UK. So, new build is much easier. In the UK it is much more complicated and takes a long time to settle planning disputes. In addition, France has been building many more homes than the UK for decades. For those who can't afford to buy, or don't want to, tenants have much more secure tenure and can't just be evicted for no reason. Tenants are much better protected than here in the UK. Rent rises are also restricted. It also helps that if you can buy, you get a mortgage at a decent rate - for the life of the mortgage. None of this nonsense of short-term fixed mortgages. Imagine that! The UK really is "cowboy land" more suited to monied profiteers than to families or communities.

[@dickie_white]

So glad you've said this. A few months every "expert" was saying that there would be a staggered impact of mortgage rate rises as people came out of their fixed rate deals at different times. Then, before any of that had played out, the same people began saying that prices were rising again, and the market was recovered. We are nowhere near the end of the shockwave produced by a TRIPLING of the cost of borrowing. Thank you.

[@xavier_lucas]

I foresaw the housing crisis and sold my property. I then put it in the market, about $200,000 of it. That was late February. I've lost more than 40% of my portfolio's value. It makes me really sad. How can I turn this situation around?

[@Jennapeters144]

This is really sad. If you're not who understands strategies to invest in the market, why not seek a financial advisor to help you grow your portfolio?

[@Muller_Andr]

Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I’ve been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly and I made over 95% profit within a short time.

[@xavier_lucas]

That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of your advisor. Could you recommend who you work with, please?

[@Muller_Andr]

Monica Mary Strigle is highly ranked and renowned among investors in WA. I was referred by a friend at the Washington Post. You can find her online, and her fee structure is reasonable considering the invaluable guidance she provides.

[@xavier_lucas]

Thank you for this. I'm gonna check her out and try to reach her. I hope she gets back to me.

[@susanlittlesthobo6422]

Air BnB is also a real issue where I live in Edinburgh…it has pushed house prices and rents up way faster than they should because people can buy using commercial mortgages and the income used is based on what they can charge for short-term lets and not wages

[@EMEL-hr4ut]

Air BnB is scumbag crap

[@nikamichi]

The market is stagnant, not crashing. You will see that people won't be able to get refinanced, and thus they stay put in the home they have finance for. Supply of homes for sale becomes very tight, stopping a crash. Additionally, when you have significant immigration, the additional population needs somewhere to live.

[@unexpectedly1468]

I think for a crash to happen, there needs to be somewhat widespread defaulting on mortgages, similar to the end of the 2000s and early 2010s. Will that happen? Its hard to say at the moment but my feeling is that the situation isn't as dramatic as then and is much more flagged up. Banks seem well capitalised (but who knows). People will be slow to sell in a falling market unless they have to. I think another issue is that the cost of building is quite high so if prices fall further, that could have quite a cooling effect on new builds. Combine that with the rising population and you again have a supply bottleneck. I think the solution remains the same as when prices were going up - the state needs to directly intervene in the market to increase supply. They don't have to do it indefinitely - demographic transition will ensure demand eventually cools. But until they do, there will be pain all around, imho.

[@2k10clarky]

Underrated comment, market isn’t crashing around here but if the economy gets worse because of the cost of living squeeze due to increased borrowing costs then it could spiral but we’re not close to that right now it would need a big recession to trigger a default wave needed for a proper price reset

[@tobymaltby6036]

In the short to medium term, you are probably correct. Overpopulation is currently preventing any real property crash. In the longer term, extortionate rents &/or mortgage repayments will slowly strangle the UK's economy as most people financially sink .. eventually sinking our consumer-spending led economy .. so all the younger economically productive people leave and new migrants no longer arrive ... and BAM!! Housing Shortage solved. *Then* you will see a true Housing Crash.

[@Tony_Teacake]

But supply for homes is not tight anymore. More properties are now on the market than there was 2018 and many of them are not selling due to delusional sellers and higher interest rates which have created an affordability crisis.

[@nikamichi]

It will tighten in the next two years. I though UK had 672,000 net migration, and that UK population has increased nearly 1.5 million since 2018? Once the BTL owners who want or need to exit, exit supply will tighten thus no crash. Immigration, and people not being able to get the level of finance they currently have (meaning they need to suck it up and stay put) will tighten supply. This has already happened in Australia, which is greatly over-valued, and majority of mortgages are variable interest, and like the UK has record net migration.

[@gailallen6350]

Your account of what is happening in Hastings is exactly what has happened where I live. I'm on the west coast of Canada, in a little community close to Vancouver. Although it is not an island, access is only by air or water. The pandemic brought a huge invasion of people from the city who could afford to buy houses, driving up prices, with the result that, as you relate, people raised here as well other long time residents can't afford to live here anymore. This has resulted in a labour shortage in the hospitality, service, retail, health care, and construction sectors. Rental units are scarce and way out of the reach of many renters.

[@bbasleigh6149]

BlackRock US private equity buy cheap residential properties across Europe. Then fix them up and double the rents. Read Catherine Liu on US housing crisis with major cities with unaffordable property prices. Young people will never be able to buy a property in US. Same in Britain?

[@kanedNunable]

same happening in UK in some areas already. also note loads of homes about to get reposessed in the new year which will get snapped up cheap for cash and rented back at stupid high rates. i feel so sorry for the young. im 48 and hopefully will be mortgage free next year.

[@wolfen210959]

I read an alrming statistic about the USA, the lowest rent is higher than the salary of a full time employee on minimum wage, that sounds uterly insane to me.

[@capri2673]

Remember what the WEF said?

[@eightiesmusic1984]

Labour should be supporting rent caps- it did under Corbyn. I rarely hear any Labour politicians talking about mortgages and rent. Labour should not have abandoned its opposition to right to buy in 1987, Tory gerrymandering that is largely responsible for the high price of property in the last twenty or so years. Council housing was also good for social cohesion because people in different jobs with varying salary levels lived in the same community- that has broken down since the eighties. The voters have been supporting Tory policies since 1979, including under Blair and Brown, so cannot complain about the state of housing and rent. It's the market, it's the wild west capitalism that the people bought into. The average age of the first time buyer in 1990 was 22.

[@StuartQuinn]

When the choice has been Tories lite or allowing the actual Tories to get into power, can you really blame "the voters"? How are you supposed to vote *as an individual* if you want more left wing policies? For Green and throw your vote away?

[@eightiesmusic1984]

@@StuartQuinn Of course the voters ( it is not '' the voters'') are to blame for accepting Thatcherism, which is why Britain is in a doom loop that can only be reversed if the electorate repudiate the ideology/policies that have ripped the social fabric apart. No-one made the voters fall for the Tory con tricks perpetuated on them since 1979 ( and for decades before that), and they were warned time and again but refused to listen, under FPTP. If enough people had heeded the warnings, if Labour had not been taken over by red Tories since Blair (his election to the leadership in 1994 was the beginning of the end as many saw at the time), and if millions who cannot be bothered to vote had got off their backsides on polling day, society and the economy today would be very different.

[@notch7139]

Rent caps unfortunately don’t work, it just causes a reduction in supply. Corbyn is clueless, he just throws out shallow socialist sound bites By the way Labour have been talking about mortgages, earlier in the year they were talking to mortgage providers. Labour are looking at a govt guarantee scheme so first time buyers can get on the housing ladder with a low deposit.

[@richardhands904]

Renting caps has been studied loads, it's actually counterintuitive and causes worse effects than positives.

[@eightiesmusic1984]

@@richardhands904 Explain.

[@andyjgreen]

I’m amazed by the number of comments suggesting house prices aren’t falling or that the markets “rock solid”! Are these commentators actually aware of what’s going on at the front line, or are they believing Right Move or headlines from lenders. Both of whom have a vested interest in making you think all’s fine. My wife’s an estate agent in Somerset and can clearly see a 10 - 12% fall in completion prices against the peak in ‘22. The market’s lost most of its 1st time buyers and is predominantly cash or very low LTV ratio mortgaged buyers. There are going to be further falls in ‘24. These are nominal figures. If you want to actually sell your home at the moment and an estate agent is telling you everything’s fine and your home is worth more than your neighbour sold for in ‘22. Be prepared to press the pause button on life whilst you get your head around the state of the actual Uk property market.

[@EMEL-hr4ut]

Seeing that in south Hampshire . Tonnes thrown on the market at top price and none selling. Buyers come from London and home counties. No FTBs up there obviously to start chains.

[@therealrobertbirchall]

It's not just the cost of borrowing. It's the greed of the property developers, and landlords. And the ridiculous 'British' habit of considering their home as assets that must increase in value annually.

[@MrJudgementday99]

Says a non landlord

[@therealrobertbirchall]

@@MrJudgementday99 absolutely I'm not a landlord. And I'm fortunate not to be a tennant.

[@jezlawrence720]

​​​@@MrJudgementday99landlords aren't home owners they're property owners. Their motivation is investment return. The rest of us just need a roof really, profit is (or should be, if people were sensible and country-minded) irrelevant. It's a different cohort, you can't compare, it's like comparing bosses to workers and saying their needs are the same. There's no human right to be on a "ladder" when it comes to property. It's more important for the economy that people can afford to move to find better *work*. Over reliance on landlords in a society without some sort of rent control or formal social contract has a disastrous braking effect on growth.

[@jezlawrence720]

To be clear I don't hate landlords. I do have little sympathy for people who invest without accepting the risks of doing so. The housing market has been ****ed and getting worse for decades. It's actually a high risk investment in that situation when you can see nothing is being done about it. The rise in landlordism is because of people going into it despite the inevitability of the current situation if the course wasn't corrected and there was zero sign of any govt doing that. The fact that govts have let banks, and now the landlord industry, basically get too big to fail means doesn't change the fact that growing landlordism and people's desire to get into it for easy money has accelerated that overleveraging. The market will adjust itself far more harshly if we don't address that kind of thing... And we haven't. Frankly I think Landlords should be have been subject to right to buy just like councils, that would definitely have slowed down the money train the last twenty years.

[@jezlawrence720]

A thing that would help landlords and homeowners and property price stability alike would be continental style long term fixed mortgages. It's a scandal that we don't have this here.

[@Gallywomack]

One of the biggest factors that is rarely mentioned is that there is a very strong disincentive for big house builders to increase supply beyond a certain point. They own huge portfolios of property for development - they simply cannot afford for house prices to be significantly devalued as their ROI on these huge property holdings would be decimated, potentially putting them out of business.

[@markkirby7600]

There has been the same disincentive for years. I remember in the late 1990's holding Persimmon shares and reading the annual report where they specificially said they were going to "reduce the number of units built and concentrate on margins". Most builders did this around the same time which led to the early 2020's house price boom. Simulateously then chancellor Gordon Brown changed the requirements from a muliple of income to affordability dramatically increaseing the amount people could borrow, especially after the interest rate reductions after 2008. The only way out of the current situation I can see is to start a huge new Council House building programme which then could control rents overall giving discounts to low earning public sector employees if required. This would increase supply (so reducing house prices overall) and would help set a base level for renters.

[@someuser828]

Once the shine has been taken off hoarding assets, hopefully investors will be encouraged to invest in sectors that generate jobs and real economic value. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of our stagnant economy.

[@gilgamecha]

Guessing NS will completely ignore the impact of the best part of a million a year net immigration.

[@magicalumbrella7151]

After the Thatcher Era of selling off council housing the reduced council property rental ability caused the Councils to push tenants into the private housing market and support that move by supplying more housing benefit. That seemed a good idea while there was plenty of property available, but now the decreasing availability of private rental property has pushed landlords to charge more (along with increased mortgage demands on them). This has now backfired on the councils who can no longer sustain needy tenants who are on the bottom of the rental scale. One problem they didn't mention; there is now a competition between those who cannot first time buy and the more senior citizens who also look to the same property range. Agents and Landlords are favoring the younger tenant and thus the older potential renters, (especially on Housing Benefit) are being pushed to one side and finding it increasingly difficult to find somewhere to live because of the limitations of the housing benefit top up. To have your elderly made homeless in their 70's 80's and 90' is a total disgrace when you think of the ridiculous amounts of money that have suddenly become available for foreign aid, weapons, and cv propaganda, and now all the ridiculous EV cars and public surveillance cameras and zero whatever it is they are promoting at the time. There IS money to help people in need but certain PTB don't want to put their money there!! This is a total negation of their duty and a crime against humanity.

[@busterrabbit]

In many countries such as France, Spain and Germany you pay tax on the difference between the purchase and sale price, this helps people think of houses as homes and not an asset to make tax free profit from. In the UK house prices going up has for years been seen as a good thing, I've never understood why. If anything else increased in price at the rate of house prices it would be seen as a huge problem.

[@richardroebuck1915]

Believe me I want house prices to come down as I am currently looking to buy (am renting at the moment) but I think the idea that they will (at least to any significant degree) is BS. Too many people have too much invested in prices staying high...I know people who currently have their houses on the market and are just refusing to sell for less than the asking price, to within a few %. House prices went up 10% a year on average during Covid and we are starting to get 35-40 year mortgages as standard. House prices won't come down, people will just find more ways to enslave themselves to the banks their whole lives to buy a property worth a fraction of what they are actually paying for it.

[@Stain3610]

yeah, i feel this. Im looking to buy, am fortunate enough i have saved up a deposit and can afford a decent budget for my area, but damn.... 35 year mortage, im 35... I will be carrying this debt likely the rest of my life... but whats the alternative? do i rent because then im just carrying someone elses mortgage and subject to all the risks renting entails. - rising rents, getting kicked out etc. So i feel i have to buy, do i go for something small, mostly inappropriate for my family, or do i stretch and accept im indebted, like you say, to a property which is worth a fraction of what I'm paying

[@TheMighty_T]

Greed unchecked destroys society.

[@tomjones8715]

You are deluded

[@enochpowell27]

Hastings: Average rent for a one bedroom flat is £805 pcm. Local Housing Allowance (for the same) is £498 pcm. Landlords require an earning threshold of 3.5 x annual rent, in Hastings it's £33,810 pa. Most tenants working in the local economy don't come close to the earnings threshold.

[@Eviction65]

It's just crazy and the same here in Rochester (Kent). Just to add that even if you CAN just about afford the high rents there is so much competition, and many Landlords will still not accept tenants on Housing Benefit.

[@tomjones8715]

Do you know what section 24 is? Maybe you need to put that into your opinion 😮

[@FictionJunction.M.]

We need to rethink how we view property, and shift to a more managed approach. The purpose of property ought to be firstly, to provide homes to those who need them, and secondary, as a premises for businesses. The parasitic behaviour of landlords and financial speculators needs to be stopped. We need to end this rip-off, trickle-up economy.

[@nescius2]

take a look at georgism, its an interesting idea about how to get rid of land speculators by taxing the land based on value around it.

[@Andremarkjohnson]

@Comrade.M.B. I agree, but more and more I'm starting to see this as a symptom, a bug, a defect of the current economic system. We need a new form of economics and outlook on life and living.

[@FictionJunction.M.]

@@Andremarkjohnson 100%. The current obsession with GDP and perma-growth pays no regard to standards of living and environmental sustainability. We are lurching towards social, environmental and economic destruction. A new socialism is needed to replace our failed neoliberal capitalism.

[@pabloes588]

@@FictionJunction.M.socialism 😂 name one country where that has worked And not before you say Sweden it’s not socialism it’s an free market economy Instead of blaming other people why don’t you take responsibility for your own actions I grew up in a council estate with nothing I own my house outright and multiple properties outright which makes me good money But guess what I still work long hours and I’m doing a diploma in my very little spare time to improve my life more I don’t blame people I just get on with it as I’m driven to do better each day

[@poiseandbalance]

@@pabloes588 You are an inspiration my story is similar to your @Comrade.M.B. is delusional talking about socialism ideology

[@nickarter]

Im a landlord and a good one! If you keep placing more burdens on landlords, then they’ll sell up and there will be less properties to rent which has already happened. There’s nothing wrong with properties going up in value, it’s possibly the only way average families on average incomes can make some some money these days to either pass on to their children, downsize, or supplement a meagre pension.

[@capri2673]

But there's a whole generation who will never be able to afford their own home so it's becoming less relevant.

[@musitecture.vienna]

It’s beyond perverse…the concept of tenants paying off their landlords’ debts is pure insanity and has inevitably led to this gaping rift in society. Too late to fix what is irretrievably broken…

[@richardswatman4011]

When people can't afford to buy, or need temporary lodgings or want to grow a business rapidly they rent property- landlords need a profit to offer this service and if they pay down their debts with the profits what the hell is wrong with that? Government policy is to blame for the housing market problems, not landlords

[@musitecture.vienna]

@@richardswatman4011 I disagree, the problem is buy-to-let landlords that have no real understanding of the ebb and flow of economic risk. They’re fickle and easily startled investors, and are currently the leading cause of kicking out their tenants with no fault evictions.

[@terranaxiomuk]

​@richardswatman4011 I love how landlords dress up exploitation as a service 😂. Spoken like a true feudal age baron. I own my own home. I couldn't care any less if it loses value as i have no intention of using it to exploit people. I'll be passing it on to my daughter. Winging multiple property mortgages and having people pay it for ypu is not a service.

[@TheGinglymus]

It does sound like a cliché now but as mentioned at least once here - causes can often be traced back to Thatcher and all that have followed.

[@kanedNunable]

sold off all the council houses cheap to win an election and never rebuilt back.

[@Longinus-fe9tu]

Most current issues are linked to Blair.

[@susanlittlesthobo6422]

The problem with house prices is that those of us who had to take on high mortgages can’t afford for them to fall…we were in the same position that first time buyers are now…it’s a runaway train so to speak…I totally agree though that high housing costs…mortgage and rent is squeezing disposable incomes although for me high food costs and fuel is the worst factor…we need policies that make buy to let unattractive and we need incomes to rise and catch up with years of cost inflation but low or minimal increases in wages…when I started working in late 90s…annual RPI increases were the automatic minimum expected (in private sector at least) with anything above that linked to performance…salary rises in line with RPI should be a legal requirement…we need a rebalanced economy so that earned income is more attractive than unearned income

[@MrJonnyl123]

House prices aren’t going to crash their is still high demand for housing and too little supply

[@kanedNunable]

will if nobody can buy them. heaven help young people getting on the market now.

[@evolassunglasses4673]

​@@kanedNunablebig money will buy up the properties and rent out. Immigration was 650,000 net. They need to live somewhere

[@Tony_Teacake]

Many people are in demand of housing but having the means to afford these houses is a different thing. Have you not been looking at the mortgage approvals on The BOE website. They have fallen off a cliff.

[@silversmoke4902]

But enough people can buy, and that will drive the market. If you really want to reduce the cost of housing, you have to build more houses. That's literally it@@kanedNunable

[@EMEL-hr4ut]

No real high demand to buy. Aspiration does not equate with demand

[@dorothyb.]

Last time I took in a lodger to help someone, she robbed me so I won’t be doing that again

[@dorothyb.]

Owning more than one home surely is still a way to tackle the housing problem. I know some couples due to work need more than one property cos they work in places far apart but many remain empty. Leaving some small towns and villages to be nearly dead in winter , spring and even autumn

[@Lynn.hot.legs.peters]

Rent to buy was the death nail for housing it always was. 2 trillion in buy to let mortgages.... Its a bubble waiting to Burst !!!!!

[@riccardo-964]

I wish! then these greedy landlords will go bust finally, I'm tired of paying someone else's mortgage!

[@markzart33]

Why? Are all the tenants going to stop paying rent?

[@kevoreilly6557]

Well that’s a good thing if you want low rentals - but it won’t happen

[@kevoreilly6557]

@@riccardo-964then don’t

[@riccardo-964]

@@kevoreilly6557 I don't want to make profit to banks either!

[@justinstephenson9360]

The problem with the rental market is that it is not worth being a landlord in large parts of the country. That is not just BTL landlords but individual landlords who own the house outright (accidental landlords mostly). It has long been the case that returns via rent only has been fairly pathetic and it was capital appreciation that made being a landlord worthwhile. Couple a lack of capital appreciation with the long term trend of government regulation trend and we will see lots of landlords leaving the market. That just increases upwards pressure on rents. The only long term solution to the rental market is a mass council house building program in much the same way we had in the 1920s,30s, 50s, 60s & 70s (also as a result of landlords selling up and leaving the private rental market).

[@1966Manjit]

Some excellent points made here about social cohesion affected by house prices and alienation of locals not being able to afford where they have family and historic links ... The greed and commoditisation of residential property and community spaces will have a detrimental effect on society and mental health .

[@enochpowell27]

In the London Borough of Bromley they require a 5 year minimum local connection before they'll even consider help of temporary accommodation. I seem to recall a Tory minister referring to homelessness as a "lifestyle choice".

[@lorenzo.c]

In Bristol, the Showcase Deluxe at Cabot Circus shopping centre, a 14 screens (including a Director's Hall) multiplex which opened in 2008, has closed on November 30 as a consequence of the breakdown in negotiations over a new lease with Cabot Circus management. It's regarded the main anchor leisure attraction for the shopping centre.

[@AlistairClark99]

Do you know what Cabot Circus management intends to do with the space?

[@spankeyfish]

@@AlistairClark99 Probably let it lay idle and blame everybody else for the loss of income, lol.

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[@stevenmackay3342]

A contributing factor to the current housing crash jiggery pokery is the fact that the Government didnt make equal shared parenting a point of law in 2018. As such the "families" that councils are purporting to help are really seperated families. Once a couple with children seperates the government doesnt regard them as 2 families; they regard them as 1 family and 1 single person household. The parent they regard as the family is the one that claims the child benefits... That parent can then give up work entirely and local authorities will enable them to sign a subsidised lease for 0% employment and 50% childcare; the other parent is then bullied into trying to provide for the children having them 50% of the time but having to sign a lease with only 50% employment on a market where the same house given to parent A for free costs parent B £1200 per month. I think it would be simpler to say that councils are employing mothers... If you have been through it (as a dather) then you will understannd how brutal social housing policy is to parent B

[@harlyslamm2888]

I would love to know who is the landlord holding a property overseas! Many company made a decision to sell their building to a separate company for tax reasons but the original owners became their own landlords! This was to minimize paying tax

[@roastnut]

Actually, it really depends on how many properties you might own and the landlord's own circumstance as to the tax benefits of holding with an offshore company. There have been changes to the law in the recent past that have taken away most of the benefits. The biggest reasons are perhaps for possible inheritance tax savings rather than any savings on the rental income. I am thinking of getting rid of the company and holding it directly as it is perhaps more beneficial for me to do it that way...

[@daveroberts1]

As prices rise the lenders will find novel ways of lending ensuring the market will not crash because it's their business. Seemple!

[@tobymaltby6036]

The BoE did that in 2009, and it kinda worked. If they do it again it's Weimar Republic Hyperinfalation Here We Come.

[@daveroberts1]

The building societies and banks lend on housing not the BoE! When I bought my first house the max mortgage was £30k...and I needed a large deposit...how things change!@@tobymaltby6036

[@varsas10]

Correct. Longer mortgages will just become more commonplace, allowing people to spend more, further inflating prices. A clamp down on mortgage lending would actually help but be very unpopular, the sad fact is everything that is done to help buyers just increases prices ultimately making banks more money at the expense of home owners.

[@tobymaltby6036]

...by which you mean *future* homeowners, of course. As for "longer motrgages" we used to have those - they were called IO mortgages. @@varsas10 The alternative is in the 2030's to issue 100 yera rep morts to 50 yera old Millenial generation FTB's. Yup.... "you'll own nothing and be happy" as Claus said. The alternative solution is to have a communist revolution. It's hard to be a conservative when you have nothing to conserve...

[@Nousmourronsseuls]

10 million people living here who were not born here. All need to live somewhere. The mainstream media will not address this.

[@richardhowlett4097]

When builders can, and are, allowed to sell the houses they build, at astronomical prices and make profits of £60,000.00 per property, like Persimmon Homes have, there's little wonder that people cant afford to buy. The majority of their profits are shared with the board members, who incidentally, don't deserve that kind of profit. The CEO stated that he worked hard to get his bonus. What hard work did he do, to warrant his outrageous bonus? The tax on those bonuses should be 75% and there's still an outrageous amount left for them. PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT. They're only interest is to rob workers of the wages that they have worked hard for.

[@m3ntalist]

Nice to hear some actual intelligent explanation about house prices etc

[@mitchio86]

I just knew that they wouldn't mention mass immigration affects on housing availability. I can't take people seriously that avoid this issue.

[@Nousmourronsseuls]

Yes, 10 million people living here who were not born here. All need to live somewhere. The mainstream media will not address this.

[@CharlieRabbit87]

Tbf, unless they’re professionals they’re often living in HMOs

[@mitchio86]

@@CharlieRabbit87 to an extent this is true

[@danhanna3943]

100% correct

[@kiwiopklompen]

One of the best explanations about the housing market crisis. You could be talking about New Zealand - we have insanely high house prices and the same issues about investing, capital gains, QE, etc..

[@HermanWillems]

Ah are you a Dutch Kiwi ? Because you say: Kiwi Op Klompen. :)

[@marcelhooftvanhuysduynen5148]

Thank you for this interesting podcast

[@tobymaltby6036]

Overpopulation is currently preventing any real property crash in the UK. In the longer term, extortionate rents &/or mortgage repayments will inevitably strangle the UK's economy as burdened with ever rising tax, rising properrt costs and stagnant incomes most people financially sink .. also sinking our consumer-spending led economy .. so all the younger economically productive people leave and new migrants no longer arrive ... and BAM!! Housing Shortage solved. *Then* you will see a true Housing Crash.

[@buzzukfiftythree]

I don’t see much sign of house prices and rental charges going down in this area (SW Kent) anytime soon. There’s a very small reduction but not a crash. What is happening is that some properties were over-priced (typically those needing a lot of work to update them) and these seem to be the ones where the sale price has had to be reduced quite considerably. Demand for housing in most parts of the country remains high, but there are shortages. All the while that continues then prices will remain high. We desperately need affordable housing, yet developers are very reluctant to provide this because it reduces their profits. What really needs to happen is for local authorities to build social housing - I doubt that will happen while such high government debts persists.

[@dlc2479]

Thats because you're thinking in nominal terms only and not in real terms. If you're noticing a small reduction then that's actually a significant reduction in real terms when you acknowledge the significant reduction in value of the pound

[@davewright9312]

Perhaps if some local authorities weren't so pig headed about planning it would help...I have a plot of land where I would willingly build 50 plus affordable starter homes...but I will be propping up the daisies before the planning 🔔 ends allow it

[@yorkyone2143]

Net migration increase since 2010 = 3.9 million Number of new homes built since 2010 = 1.3 million Demand & Supply, there will be no housing price crash......

[@evolassunglasses4673]

People ave buried their heads in the sand with the issue of mass immigration.

[@georgethompson453]

If the building of houses is around 200k and net migration far exceeds this there will always be a problem with supply. The value of property away from the cities still remain resilient so a downturn but no crash. The big problem is with council spending as you point out. If there’s an explosion in council bankruptcies it will be services that will surely suffer.

[@tobymaltby6036]

The migrants will stop coming once they find they simply cannot find somewhere to live.

[@jonathanellis1842]

In a lot of UK regional towns - cities, the big bang coming is Baby Bloomers leaving big costly houses to Gen X. Many Gen X are already home owners, have been for years so now have an empty nest, and are looking to down size not go up in house size. Their Millennial and Gen Z children can't afford even the council tax - up keep of these larger houses, or the house needs to split between multiple children. This leaves lots of bungalows often 2 beds and large 4 bed (and up) detached in nice areas unsaleable without lowering - revalued house prices, in an attempt to sell and regain capital out of these now empty property's.

[@williamwelch1950]

There is a failure in much of what is said here to acknowledge to age old principle of supply and demand. we have net immigration of 700,000p.a.That require the construction of six towns the size of Stevenage every year . The responsibility for the high level of immigration and failure to build enough houses lies entirely with Government. Complaining about landlords and second home owners, air BandB is just blame shifting .Whatever there will always be a problem until supply can meet demand.

[@peterteagleteagle9958]

Too many people in the country,

[@MrShadownoise]

Nope. ONS census figures of 2021 reported 1.5m empty homes in England, 6.1% of housing stock. Wales added another 120,450, 8.2% empty. London has the highest regional percentage at 8.0%, 297,095 empty. Approximately double 2011 figures. Housing has become a speculative asset market, where keeping homes empty is a way to create shortage and maximise capital gain. Renting them out just adds complication. Besides a great many are owned by overseas investors as money laundering safety deposit boxes, often through untraceable offshore shell companies. For some reason government and councils have encouraged this perverse and destructive 'inward investment' to support the construction industry in exchange for minimal gain of a few nominally affordable dwellings. It's as bent as Enron.

[@denislejeune9218]

Hastings = pretty much every single village/small town in Europe that has been swarmed for a holiday home by able Brits (mostly) since the 90s. I find it quite ironic the issue should come back to haunt Britain on its own territory now. Rest assured, the problem also arises from well-off Parisians pricing provincials out in the same fashion, but that "anglicisation" was a major trend for many years (and why not, if you can afford it, but it has a massive impact on locals indeed).

[@stephenmorris8557]

Landlords should be encouraged to evict bums. That would lower rents.

[@philipvjones397]

This is just a random rant about housing and property in the UK; no detailed explanation of why a housing market crash might occur. The fact Curzon don;t own their premises in Mayfair may we interesting to some people, but it's totally irrelevant to the title.

[@felixarbable]

Considering how shite the new statesmen is at predictions im second guessing myself now 😂 at the end of the day there is still a huge housing shortage in the uk.

[@pierceferris]

It’s not at all surprising when one considers that a population the size of Birmingham arrives every two years! Can one build a city the size of Birmingham every two years, no! So clearly not surprising…

[@XORTION]

Homes should be for living, not profit. Greed is way to high

[@andrewta55]

Strikes me of a few panelist’s dabbling in a market they don’t understand. Articulating it with bias and in misleading way (most people are fine with prices going down because it reduces the amount of debt required for the next step? No…. All prices go down). In any case, renters will have their pay increases swiped, mortgage interest rates have now settled. Yes there will be distress, but short and shallow. Banks weren’t even mention here. Their balance sheets much more robust than the gfc and ltvs much lower. Sadly people will just feel poorer. And now it’s time to tax wealth? Also, Scotland’s cap on rents did well didn’t they.

[@ParcelOfRogue]

If around since the 60's you've lived through 3 big house price crashes. The last one lost about a third and lasted 18 months, but had little effect in London and the most effect in the poorer areas , mostly of the north and Wales. The prices exceeded previous ones in about 3 years, so it preceded a boom. Just warning you

[@dlc2479]

In nominal terms yes not in real (spending power) terms😅

[@ParcelOfRogue]

Didn't we used to generally have about 3% p.a. inflation? @@dlc2479

[@dananskidolf]

I haven't been around since the 60s so don't know much about those, but this time seems a bit different from what you're saying. London property prices have been hit the hardest, followed by the other more expensive counties. Apart from Aberdeen (which is a case of its own), cheaper places seem to be getting an influx of people who can't afford anywhere else, or just want to make the most of what they have. This will have its own problems - like mentioned about Hastings in the video.

[@davewright9312]

​@@dananskidolfI think you missed his very valid point which was after every so called crash.. there has been a bigger boom...crash in the mid 80 followed by boom.. happened several times in the last 40 years

[@ParcelOfRogue]

Aberdeen was a boom town, rather like Cambridge was. They were incredibly hard hit in the 90's. @@dananskidolf

[@TurielD]

You absolutely have to have Gary Stevenson on. He's predicting a huge increase in housing prices, and makes a very straightforward case for it. Lets have yhe debate!

[@JamesFear]

Trouble is everyone feels skint. I am In a fortunate position to own but want to move up the ladder there is like no chance. whole thing seems pointless

[@nosuchthingasshould4175]

It’s not necessarily that complicated. First, set up rent controls. Then set up a buyout scheme to buy properties from those landlords who are put out of business by the rent controls. Then put those properties back on the rental market, at even lower rates, and of course remove all obstacles to the construction of council rentals, as long as they are not subject to the rent to buy scheme. This will destroy the private rental market overtime and make the government and local councils the main landlords. It will also put a cap on the property market in general. Houses will again be places to live, not financial vehicles.

[@davewright9312]

Where are the magic money trees that councils will need to do this? In case you hadn't noticed they haven't got a pot to pee in? Sounds like some extract from a commies handbook

[@pataleno]

Not bad ideas. I’m an accidental landlord through separation and moving jobs i would sell my property to the government but I will be hit heavily by capital gains. Too much tax to be paid. Have a capital gains amnesty for sales to government or first time buyers and there would be a flood of properties on the market and sold.

[@nosuchthingasshould4175]

@@davewright9312preferably by finding you and taking all your money

[@nosuchthingasshould4175]

@@pataleno why not. But they would have to hurry up as the whole purpose of the program would be to drive down prices.

[@mattreddy2979]

Hello, as a rich landlord i would just like to thank you for avocating for charities such as english heritage ans community groups to pool together all their resources to buy my properties. Im struggling to find buyers at the moment and worried abt a potential crash but with stories like this im reassured i will find someone stupid enough to sell to. Yours sincerely rich landlord. Ps when the community group struggles to pay the high energy bills perhaps we could do a story on why its a good time for them to sell the properties back to me (at a very significant discount naturally). Love your work xx

[@markzart33]

We will always have housing problems because of the planning system, which conspires with the banking sector to simultaneously add demand while restricting supply. Just release more land for building, release so much that the price falls.

[@kanedNunable]

when most of the current gov are landlords do you think anything will happen?

[@moodobusiness]

What was the bond price following trust announcement What is it ?

[@domm1341]

Sounds like a massive house of cards to me.

[@roddychristodoulou9111]

As of December 2023 no property price crash seems to be near . I did think the same thing due to the dire state of our economy but now I'm thinking yes there still may be a small crash but nothing major . I base this on our population which is continuing to grow and is expected to reach 70 million by around 2030 . The fact that we're not building enough houses to meet demand is all you need to know .

[@ashishranjan8376]

So you mean equation is SAME for people who bought the house which was 200k in its peak when IR was 2% AND people who are now planning to buy similar house at 180k @6% Everything in economy is not demand and supply. There is something called as MACRO aspects which suggests Britain will not be in top 10 nations in regard to GDP in few yrs time. This Ponzi scheme of cheap loan is history and for another good 5-6 yrs interest rates will be close to 5-6%. All USD treasury’s are returning home and US provides swap lines to British £. Think about commodities guys not house prices. It will be a real mayhem after UK Elections

[@wolfen210959]

We are already at 79 million population.

[@papi8659]

Doesn't really matter if one cinema brand is replaced by another - its not as if Curzon is a community institution or a social justice charity.

[@geordiedog1749]

Mrs Geordiedog and I wanted to help one of the boys with a deposit. Oh how naive we were!

[@khar12d8]

My personal experience of housing is that it is much more affordable outside of London and the SE. Everyone I know up north in their 20s and 30s owns a house. Including people with fairly low level jobs. But the most economically successful part of the UK is prohibitively expensive, London and the SE. I think this is probably one of the reasons for our weaker growth since 2008. So much of London's wealth gets sucked up into bricks and mortar instead of being spent and invested in new business ventures.

[@california7376]

It is more 'affordable' outside of London and the South East. But that is comparing apples and oranges. You can also buy outright in Detroit. Does not mean everyone wants to live there for multiple of reasons.

[@khar12d8]

@@california7376 Honestly, I don't know why so many people choose to live in London. I do live in London but have no kids and don't plan to have any. But trying to bring up a family in London today seems crazy. I honestly think living standards are higher for many in the north. A third of London are immigrants so actually a lot of Brits don't want to live in London. But London is good at attracting people from other countries. It will be interesting to watch how the future of London's population plays out with so many people unable to afford housing there these days. Without immigration the population would already be falling easily.

[@kinggeoffrey3801]

I have just put my house on the market. I have had three estate agents out and all have said it's worth anything from £310k-£295k. My neighbour sold hers for £300k in the summer. So as it stands no crash is happening. Probably will drop a bit over the next 18 months when people's fixed mortgages end.

[@muqyk]

Let us know how much it actually sells for

[@therealrobertbirchall]

The crash is in part due to people being forced to pay over the odds for housing. If you think your house is worth £300k how much did you pay for it, and when, and how much profit do you expect to realise from the sale. If your expected profit is more than the rate of inflation over the time you have owned the house, then you are part of the problem.

[@pedalinpete]

You didn't watch the video, did you?

[@andymaidment111]

Tray and sell it, see what happens.

[@kinggeoffrey3801]

@@therealrobertbirchall we bought the house for £248k in 2021. We have spent 25k doing it up. We are going with what the experts are telling us. I am not part of any problem. I have worked 60 plus hours weeks for decades to get to my position.

[@14Unow]

House price devaluation also requires higher than average unemployment to have a real impact on house prices.

[@khar12d8]

The amazing thing is how many people choose to live in London despite the high prices of living there. Quite a phenomena when you think about it. You would think more people would be choosing to leave London to move to cheaper parts of the country.

[@salkoharper2908]

The problem is that prices in all parts of England are now very high, considering the average wages. Kent or Essex might be cheaper than living in the city, but London has all the jobs and much better salaries for the same jobs. You can be a Plumber or an Electrian in London and make 10x what a man doing the same job in Newcastle or Liverpool would make. Also London has all the Museums, theaters, famous buildings, landmarks etc.. Not much to see in some Towns. I would not mind living in a boring quite town if it was cheap, but most of England is quite expensive now. Not worth living in a crappy faded industrial town unless its cheap and chearful. If its expensive and depressing, may as well live in London. It's expensive, but always interesting.

[@paulgreen7906]

Any downturn in the housing market will be short term and minor. The elephant in the room is never addressed...demand far outstrips supply. Not enough houses are built!!! It's been like that for 50 years! Now with all the legal/illegal immigration taking place, the chickens are coming home to roost. Where are we all going to live?!!! My idea years ago was the government could fund vocational training courses for bricklayers, tilers, electricians, etc. Then on qualifying they are guaranteed a job with the government BUT they have to sign a contract committing them to work for the govern for say 10 years (maybe 20?) and all they would be doing is building council estates. Arghhhh council estates, I can see the middle classes becoming quite distressed at that thought. It is either that or have 12 homeless people sleep next to your EV Range Rover in your garage. The choice is yours....

[@loosabway3400]

We needed to limit immigration (the in-work benefits we used to have - allowing ordinary workers to work ordinary jobs - have gone, making the greedy ****tards in the service sector employ those willing to live 10 to a room - foreigners), increase council tax in a real-World way (to take steam out of the foreign investment markets, particularly at the top end), and stop cutting the central support grant to Councils (by up to 90% for London councils) to stop them only approving the most corrupt planning applications. Fat chance of any of that

[@garrybye4415]

I don’t disagree with you but we do limit immigration! The government chose to issue 600k plus visas last year mostly to students and healthcare. Students bring in lots of revenue and the others are coming to do essential jobs that can’t be filled. I do think universities should have been made to build more accommodation to house their lucrative students - that would stop lots of good housing stock being converted to student housing. Until housing supply improves drastically, lots of people will be forced to live with other people - if rents carry on going up, people will have no other choice

[@Nousmourronsseuls]

@@garrybye4415yes, immigration is limited, but at such high cumulative levels that it is unsustainable and has had dire long term consequences to the wealth and wellbeing of the indigenous population. Ten million people currently live in the UK who were not born here. That is 1 in every six people. That is not limiting immigration in any meaningful sense. Most immigrants are poor and will cost more in terms of schools, healthcare, social services, housing etc. than they will ever pay in taxes. The hidden cost on the working classes in the UK has been immense in terms of reduced wages and opportunity. The hidden benefit to the owners of capital has been huge in terms of cheaper labour and greater profit. The idea that this country cannot operate without increasing numbers of immigrants willing to work for less than the indigenous population is absurd and completely unsustainable. The NHS can operate with indigenous people if those people are paid and treated properly. Yes, it means raising more in taxes to pay for that, but the tax system in this country needs to be overhauled especially with large corporates legally avoiding tax being made to pay their share. The owners of capital do not want to limit immigration, it means reduced profits and higher taxes. The rest of us should want to limit immigration not only to preserve what wealth and opportunity we have but also to preserve our culture and way of life.

[@loosabway3400]

@@garrybye4415 Those jobs cannot be filled because housing is so expensive here. Housing is so expensive for a few reasons, one of which is a swollen population of overseas workers performing jobs that UK workers should be doing. The removal of benefits that subsidised low paid workers, made working just not worth it is ideological and stupid; would you go out to work for nothing? We have UK residents who could be doing these jobs, sitting on their behinds while we suck in cheap foreigners. This is insane. As for the Uni sector, the ‘need’ for foreign students is debatable. Funding for the sector has been reduced so savagely that these students are a not particularly welcome ‘necessity’. One consequence of that ‘necessity’ is that UK students are unable to access courses at many prominent universities; they are full of e.g. Chinese students. The loss of intellectual capital for this country, with knowledge that is valuable, going overseas is a long-term tragedy.

[@enochpowell27]

Local Housing Allowance (housing benefit) is costing the treasury tens of billions each year. Higher than inflation wage demands are all related to rising housing costs. It's a vicious circle. If rents were linked/capped to average pay, as they are in parts of Europe the UK wouldn't be in this predicament.

[@frusciantesplectrum7980]

Rental market is due to hammering landlords with easy pickings of taxing not their profit but turnover…. Stringent unrealistic rules and regs that are selling up private rental sector When you have more net immigrants moving into your country than building houses by a ratio of 3:1 then you won’t ever solve the problem. House problems will drop due to leverage on mortgages leaving their low fixed rates, however the major shortage of property will still prop them up due to supply and demand. Lower house prices dropping won’t help many renters as most renters can’t afford deposits on houses, don’t have mortgages as they have bad credit or too old. They will now have to compete in a smaller rental sector. banks and companies will buy property in mass and just like everything privatised…. The shareholders will take the money out of the country. Basic economics…. More HMOs to sustain the numbers which will mean that towns and suburbs will look like city centres. I’m a pretty successful property owner…. Mark my words this will happen.

[@IraqiNews-bp5zo]

First of all, I’ve found this episode quite interesting, informative and in some parts eye opening. The one thing I’d like to have seen or heard is how landlords look at things. I’m a landlord in Hastings & it’s not always the case that it is the (good versus evil). You’ll be surprised at how we do our best to look after the tenants. Sometimes even at our financial loss. Talk to landlords next time and see how they feel about some of the issues you mentioned. This way your report will be more balanced.

[@stevebbuk9557]

Not a word on immigration. I wonder why..

[@wolfen210959]

The UK has always had immigration, it has only become a problem since the 80's, with the decision to force councils to sell off their housing stock for peanuts, and the ban on replacing them. Prior to the 80's, councils were always building new housing, to cope with the growth in population, brought about by the influx of refugees and immigrants after WWII, but government policy changed in the 80's, which led inevitably to where we are now, immigration is being blamed for a lack of vision by successive governments. Until government policy changes, the problems of today will continue to worsen. In the late 1970's, I was offered a 3-bed newly built house on a council estate, after just 6 weeks on the waiting list. 20 years later my son had to wait 3 years for a house on that same housing estate, because most of the properties were now private. There have been no new council properties built in my town since the 1970's, because the council were not allowed to build any.

[@stevebbuk9557]

That's part of it, but to leave 1.2 million immigrants in 2022 out of the equation is not showing the full picture.@@wolfen210959

[@desmondmagrath8262]

House prices down, as reported by Will,in real terms by 13%,gold is up 14% and likely going higher. The maths in the property market is ridiculous. Years and years of reckless lending. People under 50 generally have large mortgages and aren't really homeowners. Those under 40 have even larger mortgages. I worked through from the early 60s when lending was far tighter on everything. Now the country floats on a sea of debt. National debt of £3 trillion against GDP of £2 trillion. There's no way the country can live like this for ever. You reap what you sow.

[@alessandrobianco7183]

Fearmongering have been predicting a crash since 2020. Good job people! You did not get one prediction right!

[@Kicklighter.A]

The market controls rents not landlords

[@jackboyle3688]

Yeh man, landlords are robots with no agency at all.

[@Kicklighter.A]

@@jackboyle3688 No landlords are citizens operating within the capitalist system, and are subject to the laws of supply and demand which sets the economic conditions within you, me and everyone has to operate, whether we like it or not. If you want to change this system or adjust tit to make it more fair, then that’s a different argument and one which may have some merit

[@jackboyle3688]

@@Kicklighter.A Let's test this then. Slavers in 19th century America were also operating within the capitalist system: slaves were far more economical than employees. Would you then give the slavers a free pass?

[@BluCat86]

Not happening. Too many people. Not enough houses. End of story.

[@js9785]

I dispute the argument that falling house prices are good for everyone. Some people only just bought property and are facing the prospect of negative equity. Might be worth mentioning falling house prices are not just a utopia for all.

[@kanedNunable]

small houses arent going down at all from what i can see. which is a problem for people downsizing like me. as bigger houses (ive got 4 bed detached in nice village) are falling fast.

[@dananskidolf]

I think you're correct. Small homes suitable for first time buyers are not dropping so much because people are desperate to get away from rising rent, plus the Bank of Mum and Dad helps young adults compete and pay more. Places like yours are more reliant on people who want to upsize and have cash to put towards it, which is going to be a group that fewer people are joining, due to massive mortgage costs holding them back, and the fact they can get decent returns on investing that spare cash elsewhere makes them feel worth waiting and saving up. I'm afraid it's an unfortunate time to be downsizing. One thing in your favour might be people leaving cramped, expensive city flats for somewhere nicer - I'd be tempted myself...

[@spankeyfish]

Just like how small cars hold their value much better than big expensive ones.