California Wildfire Season Summary 2023

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How did the 2023 wildfire season compare with previous years?
Both 2022 and 2023 were well below average in terms of acres burned. While the 5-year average is around 1.6 million acres burned per year, 2022 was only around 290,000 and 2023 was about 320,000. Additionally, the fires this last year were much less destructive. In California’s history, there have been 17 individual fires that have destroyed more than 1,000 structures, and the Camp Fire alone destroyed more than 18,000. This year, there were only around 50 structures destroyed the entire fire season. One reason for this lack of destruction was due to the fact that the largest fires burned in remote areas. For example, while the York Fire burned 93,078 acres, most of this was in the Mojave National Preserve, so there were only 3 structures destroyed. The majority of the remaining acres burned this last year were due to several lightning fires in far Northwestern California, which is not a highly populated area (Smith River Complex - 95,107 acres and the SRF Lightning Complex - 50,198 acres).
Why was there minimal wildfire activity in 2023?
When asked this question, Dr. Craig Clements, the head of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center at SJSU said, “This has to do with the wet winter we had, the cooler summer conditions, and a little bit of luck as well.” There was a pattern shift in late December that set the stage for a series of atmospheric rivers that brought massive amounts of rain and snow into California. The water year wrapped up with 141% of the statewide average rainfall, while the Sierra picked up twice as much snow as a normal year leading to one of the largest snowpacks in state history. Rain and snow are both incredibly important in terms of wildfire because the more moisture you have in your fuels, the harder it is for fires to start and the slower they spread once they do. Abundant precipitation also decreases drought conditions and in the last year we went from 100% of the state being in moderate drought to 0%. Part of this improvement was also due to the rare event we saw in mid-August where Tropical Storm Hilary brought record-breaking rainfall to much of Southern California. This added even more moisture into our fuels at a time when they are usually drying out. The massive snowpack also helped to keep fuels moist as we got into fire season. In previous years, there had been a trend of longer fire seasons because the snowpack melted earlier due to warmer temperatures. The reverse happened this year. From September of 2022 to October of 2023, much of California had temperatures two to even four degrees below average. This not only allowed more precipitation to fall as snow in the first place, but also lead to a much slower melting of the snowpack. Skiers and snowboarders loved this as they were able to enjoy the slopes through the 4th of July. Perhaps more importantly, it decreased fire danger throughout the Sierra, which is one of the regions in California that has had some of the most severe and destructive wildfires. In summary, massive amounts of rain and snow combined with cooler than normal temperatures brought ample moisture into our fuels, which made it harder for fires to start and spread.
Does all the precipitation we picked up mean more plants were able to grow, so future fire seasons will be worse?
More fuel does lead to more wildfire, but increased precipitation mostly increases plant growth within grasslands. While grass fires can ignite and spread quickly, they are not usually the most dangerous or destructive fires because they are easier to suppress than fires burning in dense shrubs or forests. However, with so few acres burned this year, we didn’t clear out as many of the fuels that have been accumulating for decades. In California, fire is a natural part of the ecosystem, so these fuels will burn eventually. Instead of waiting for the next drought where fire danger will once again be extreme, many fire experts recommend California act now to put fire on the ground to reduce fuels while conditions are favorable.
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