Carmageddon - How China Leapfrogged The Old Guys - But Can't Catch Up To Tesla

[@randycarter2001]

Tesla, knowing that the Achilles Heel of the EV was the battery, took on the manufacture of the battery and the charging infrastructure early in the game. The other automakers went out and purchased their batteries and left it to others to build out the infrastructure. They were thoroughly convinced EV's wouldn't succeed. Now they're over 10 years behind and dying.

[@zoransarin5411]

Spot on. Also, Tesla was saying to the world on many occasions, you need to mine lithium and manufacture batteries. They took on battery manufacturing in the US as well as buying land to mine lithium. Big hints

[@mrapp8918]

Victori spolia! 🏆🏎️ 🔋

[@AdrianHilder]

Tesla buy in a lot of their batteries from CATL and Panasonic as well as manufacturing some of their own. I heard Elon say a while back Tesla was going to build a lithium refinery. There is plenty of mining capacity for lithium but not enough refineries.

[@yankeewog]

Actually, the Achilles Heel of the EV was the software. Software for charging and software for the car. Software for charging they already won in the US. But that's peanuts. It's software for the car that's going to be the goose that lays the golden egg. Once they start licensing, it'll dawn on everybody. Heck, I bet Tesla end up building the factories for legacy too.

[@fteoOpty64]

And nobody says anything about the shit software of China EVs. Then how about the world leading Tesla software that is at least 5 years ahead of anybody else....

[@JAKEeSHOW]

Another AMAZING Video!!!! Thanks for all your hard work and superb research!!!!

[@mrapp8918]

Lars-your production quality grows more impressive by the day. 🏆🏎️🔥🧠👍

[@daveinpublic]

He played a video from the BBC and used their research. Sure, it was a great video, but let’s give credit to the people doing the hard work.

[@Fissan_Poulsen]

​@@daveinpublic BBC is a biased, government-sponsored organization and does not deserve any credit, ever.

[@Fissan_Poulsen]

@@daveinpublic BBC deserver no credit, ever.

[@thestraffords]

Thank you Lars, this is one of your best presentations. 👍

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

⚠️EV-disruption from China and Tesla..... 😎

[@Mrbfgray]

Typically not mentioned is the detrimental biz environment of UK and EU; regs, unions, culture...

[@Bill-y9r2v]

Yoh, Lars. FYI: On Dec.11th "China Observer" channel talked about China's government now starting to impose stricter emissions standards on ICE vehicles, forcing owners to "scrap" their ICE cars much sooner than expected.

[@FutureSystem738]

“China Observer” is one place I would NOT get my news. (Totally biased and often completely false!)

[@prilep5]

Even power production is subsidized in China where they find the money for all of this 😂

[@dennisd9804]

Very incredible to see how China has overtaken everyone else, especially Europe and Japan, in a few short years. Countries attempt to fight back, but you can't stop disruption.... also, China's power consumption is moving away from fossil fuels very quickly. Great video, Lars!

[@zoransarin5411]

It’s not just disruption. The Chinese think very long term. They didn’t get into this position of not having any of the resources yet controlling the production and manufacture of the critical battery components by accident. They started stitching resources up more than 20 years ago. Most automakers that are publicly traded companies are driven by short term thinking and dividends and buybacks. This is capitalism. If someone like GM ends up going bankrupt, the senior executives, the CEO, the Board and the shareholders will have made their fortunes and gotten out, leaving the carcass behind with losses to be borne by new shareholders that they conned that GM was doing great and employees. The little guys always lose.

[@GrigoriZhukov]

Well, off-shoring the refining to China to prop up profits was not so smart in the long run I guess.

[@dennisd9804]

@@GrigoriZhukov True, but we are starting to see refining capacity diversify to many other parts of the world. In particular, the U.S. is picking up speed.

[@dennisd9804]

@@zoransarin5411 The Chinese have definitely been very strategic with building out the full supply chain; they have been building factories, obtaining permits/resources, and deploying capital in other ways since even the late 1990s. You are spot on about how many publicly traded companies, automakers in particular, are forced into short-term thinking by investors (driven by sentiment). GM is an interesting example for sure.

[@zoransarin5411]

@@dennisd9804 Thanks Dennis. The contrast between Tesla and GM is a great case in point. Musk as CEO has staked his fortune in the company with virtually no salary and all stock. If he does well, he does well. If he stuffs up, he goes down in value. Compare that to Mary Barra. She is paid a small fortune in salary as well as receiving shares. But the pattern is she receives stock benefits and sells very quickly. So she deliberately has no skin in the game. She gets paid a salary regardless of the performance of the company and short term stock pumping works in her favour as she sells her stocks at a premium. That is one reason why Tesla is doing so much better than GM. The bigger Musk dreams and can execute, the wealthier he gets, but the stock price follows. Mary doesn't care if GM fails. She will have been paid handsomely for her being captain of the ship and she wont lose on stock prices as she never keeps them long enough.

[@johnreese3762]

Super great video Lars, thanks! Shows what Bob Lutz knows = 0!

[@snookmeister55]

TSLA blew past 420.69 and is now almost back to that number.

[@maxflight777]

It’s going to be 800 in just 2 years from now

[@russta19801]

“Undercunting” My new favourite word!!

[@gw7388]

😂😂😂 (but is your Danish any better? Keep it up, Lars!)

[@medschoolvisual6954]

Undercutting means: offer goods or services at a lower price than (a competitor). But then undercunting should mean to offer pssy at a lower price😂 (than a cuntpetitor)

[@yankeewog]

Auto-translate captions refused to translate the word and left it out 😂

[@thelongame]

And at 4:20 , obviously!

[@talpolano4549]

Goodbye NOKIAs! 3:)

[@IndigenousEarthling101]

Carmaggedon is nigh! The Autocalypse is coming! IMHO, it should be around 2026, when the purchase prices of most EVs drop below those of most gas cars.

[@TomTom-cm2oq]

What I’ve been saying would happen for years. It was obvious. Why didn’t VW and Toyota do the same?

[@BH195829]

Great Ai pic of carmagefon!! 💕

[@JEPtech]

Great video! What is the name of the song in the first minute?

[@geirmyrvagnes8718]

Word of the day; "Undercunting". 4:20

[@DrTofutybeast]

Important video BUT the charts are moving too fast to view the details!

[@Dogman3690]

EV Lars ✔️🖖🌎

[@hanswitvliet8188]

However, materials are only a part of the production. Energy cost are artificially low in china, especially compared to Europe. And how about labor costs? As soon as Optimus joins the Tesla work force, all other manufacturers are fubar. Even the Chinese.

[@fteoOpty64]

I don't understand why people kept hyping about China EVs outside of China. Please look at the sales numbers, they do not even have 2% market share in any market outside of China!. That is fact. Tell us they are a threat when they mange to get 10%shares in any country. OK?. In China, it is a controlled economy so that market does not count. That ain't free market. Besides, china EVs having reliability issues left and right. Look at Australia market. Then Russian market.

[@user299792]

The Tesla Model 3 made in china are better quality than the US made and even the made in Germany model Y. Apple products are made in china too. The chinese can deliver good quality, when you have good quality control and you are willing to pay for. The chinese car makers are learning quickly. Look at Xiaomi. From zero to 100.000 cars in less than a year of production.That‘s insane! If i were a CEO of a legacy car maker, i would have nightmares every night! Remember what the ChiComms have done to the US or the European solar-industry. Business is war!

[@sopiagotim]

I’m in favor of Federal Government support ($) of US factories, and labor. We can only be called a world leader, if we can outbuild our enemies. And we can usually figure out who they are…

[@gperch]

4m20s :)

[@alfredotto7525]

The ability to recycle batteries in the US sucks.

I wonder who has the best strategy in the medium and long time UK or US and Germany withe this Tariffs.

[@user299792]

Tariffs have never protected an industry in the long term. Maybe for a couple of years, but it will also „protect“ you from the need for innovation. But tariffs will force the competition to innovate even more in the product or in the production methods, to make the products cheaper, so they can compete despite the tariffs. So in the long term tariffs will make the others even better, cheaper and stronger!

[@riceman78]

why did the pack cost go up in 2024?

[@HMexperience]

Great report. Just one thing. With respect to batteries it is Tesla trying to catch up to China and for everything else it is reversed. China lead in batteries to me appears more profound than Tesla lead in everything else except FSD where Tesla lead profoundly.

[@pathfollower]

Until recently CATL had patents on lithium iron batteries KEEPING them in China.

[@shadowmancer7040]

The LFP patents ended up being owned by (i think) a Canadian company that aggressively protected its IP but that "agreed" to not pursue licensing from Chinese companies as long as the batteries stayed in China. Thus China had a decade long advantage in the .manufacture of LFP batteries.

[@pathfollower]

@shadowmancer7040 Imteresting, I never heard that one before. I did here from several sources, CATL, the largest battery manufacture in the world, owned those patents. Tesla funded research at a Canadian university announced today they had developed a 5 million mile battery. As with all battery breakthroughs, they still need to know they can build it at scale. Lots of cool laboratory batteries that are near impossible to mass produce. Would be interesting to put a million miles on a car, scrap it, but save battery to put in next car.

[@hillmans69]

Did you notice that TV show chart at 14:45? They forecast linear growth, while everything in the past and present points to exponential growth until we hit the inflection point on the way to 100% BEVs. A big part of the future LFP battery demand will be utilized for BESSes like the Megapack. Elon has said the demand is unlimited for a while. Two year backlog, and the Megafactory just about to start production in China. An additional 20, 40, or possibly 60 or 80 GWh of BESS capacity coming online? That's going to need a LOT of cells!

[@saltvatn]

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

[@green-fn11]

Invite a smart kid to be your desk partner.. copy their work.. profit

[@patmcdaniel2016]

Snooze and you lose. Period.

[@user299792]

Yep. Innovate or die!

[@lawrencebaxa6168]

With Biden’s help

[@imaro2358]

This is not new news. Plus China had a patent on LFP batteries so no wonder they dominate that category. Europe will have to follow Tesla and develop their own batteries and control the supply chain.

[@pranshukrishna5105]

Why will china not overtake tesla

[@vtr279]

Because Tesla is the Alpha and The Omega in terms of being a picture perfect example of America's Technological Supremacy and current/forthcoming automotive messiah... Apple and Tesla. 'Alpha-Meta-X'

[@pranshukrishna5105]

@@vtr279 how will tesla compete against 10k, 20k cars from china?

[@sdpryce]

Software, efficiency, safety, performance, self driving, charging infrastructure, innovation for a start. 😊

[@tibiamademedoit6486]

🤣💀

[@machoopichoo2]

Just to be completely factual and not expose ourselves to Tesla-Q attack, yes, cobalt is used extensively in fossil fuel production but it's a catalyst that can be reused. It's better to stick to the fact that personal devices use way more Li, LFP don't use cobalt, and Li is recyclable unlike FFs.

[@paulc6766]

As he said all Cobalt can be recycled.

[@machoopichoo2]

@@paulc6766 Nope. He made a point about using cobalt in the fossil fuel industry and implied it gets used up. He certainly didn't say anything about reusing that cobalt. It would not be an argument against this use of cobalt, if one knows it is reused.

[@alanlight7740]

Yes, the cobalt is a catalyst that can be reused for a long time ... but seeing as the last major oil refinery in the U.S. was built in 1977 and they're still needing cobalt it follows that there must be some limit to how much cobalt can be reused in that environment.

[@machoopichoo2]

​@@alanlight7740 Sure, fair enough but it's not the strongest argument and I have seen people say there are massive amounts used for FFs and imply or even say that it's more than BEV batteries, which is completely untrue, for the time being. Batteries use way more than even the reusable Co used in refinement. It can really hurt advocates' credibility. Best to stick to the greater use of Li and Co by devices, the 5% recycling rate of current batteries, the typical >4 years of device life, vs. potentially 20-30 years for a BEV battery (can transition to stationary storage), growing recycling industry, circular economy, etc.

[@alanlight7740]

@@machoopichoo2 - True, it's a relatively weak argument. It's a strange thing, I constantly see people on all sorts of issues favoring the weakest arguments rather than the strongest ones. Sometimes I think it is intentional to harm the side that they pretend to be advocating for.

[@davidbeppler3032]

I can reduce the price of all new gas/diesel cars by 20%. Only build 6 engines. 1 type of 4cy, 1 type of 6cy, 1 type of 8cy, and 1 type of 12cy. Done. Then just 2 diesel motors. 1 6cy, and 1 8cy. Done. You can only make those engines. No matter who makes the car, they all use the same engines. Problem solved. Parts solved. Repairs solved. Prices will fall 20% overnight. Every new car has to use one of those engines.

[@GaziGazo-b1f]

For that u need brain

[@user299792]

Ok, so you have reduced the costs of an ICE engine once at 20%. So what? Battery costs are declining 15% every year! In 4 years you have half the cost, and in another 4 years a quarter of the initial cost. Today we have already cost parity of ICE cars and BEV cars. In 4 years the battery and the electric drive train will cost half the price to produce than an ICE engine with the gear box. Not to mention the maintenance costs of an ICE car. Oil change, brakes, timing belt, clutch and all the whatnots. In 10 years all this will cost you a fortune!

[@Mino987]

First

[@KP-xi4bj]

Chinese BEVs may leapfrogged legacy automakers but I would not come near a Chinese BEV with a 10 feet pole. They're still at least 5 years behind Tesla.

[@paulc6766]

I can say as a Tesla owner that this is not true.

[@KP-xi4bj]

@@paulc6766 Go watch Carwow and What Car range tests involving Teslas and Chinese BEVs. Tesla comes out on top with using a smaller battery with the most range and having the highest energy usage efficiency. Never mind the 8 EV fires in China daily.

[@michaelking8573]

How?​@@paulc6766

[@johnabardenhagenjr1119]

Stupid music. By

[@nowbeing1]

Evs are not the future. There are cases where they work like milk floats.

[@bobbresnahan8397]

It's interesting that the critics also get it wrong. The Europeans should listen to Bestintesla.

[@jpen5599]

Hey 420$ 🎉 = 🩳🔥