Ethiopia's war in Tigray turns into defeat

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In recent months, #Tigray and #Oromo forces have captured strategic towns and are now shooting their way to the #Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.
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[@CaspianReport]

Go to ground.news/caspian to download the free Ground News app. Get 60% the Vantage subscription for unlimited access to the most advanced news analysis features. Offer ends 12/31.

[@Berkana]

Could you do an update on COVID and geopolitics? You should do a retrospective on what you got right and what you got wrong when you did your first video on the pandemic. Because if I remember correctly, a lot of things did not go as you thought they would.

[@samih5130]

This is not update info need a part two, u don't talk about amhara, afar & Somalia group in what they choose even if tplf win

[@war8036]

You spoke way too soon!

[@samih5130]

@@war8036 very soon, we all know there is no 100% in a war but he is saying 100% tplf will capture addis. Very Shortsighted

[@johnx112]

I think you are confusing Facts from Propoganda because that is all i smell in here. for starter, when you say "the federal governemtn lunched an offensive" which is a straight out lie. BBC and CNN and many outlets have tried to portray this as a fact with disregarding to the admittance of A TPLF spokes person calling it "Primitive and lightening Attack on ENDF" and i could mention many false narration by your part be it out of ignorance or an ethical reporting. Thankfully for ethiopians sake, history is written by the victor.

[@imnackeredsirnackered948]

People criticizing Caspian reports earlier video on Ethiopia where Ethiopia was on the path to becoming a major power due to economic growth, Investments and the building of a dam that can fuel energy to millions of its people, This was an accurate analyst. However things can happen very quick and escalate very fast. An uprising can happen at any moment which can plunge the country into civil war. Its hard to know when these events can happen, I remember Caspian talking about Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno karabakh like 10 years ago then suddenly last year things exploded into war.

[@abdirahmanmahdi9458]

But these conflicts were going in Ethiopia when he uploaded the video but he chose to disregard it so he did make a mistake and that's ok, nobody is perfect

[@imnackeredsirnackered948]

@@abdirahmanmahdi9458 I am pretty sure he mentions Ethiopia's Issues of ethnic tensions and the problem with trying to rule over a ethnically divided nation within that video "Ethiopia is a powerhouse in the making". I see people in the comments reminding him of that video as if that proves anything when in-fact he has mentioned Ethiopia's past and possible dangers which threaten Ethiopia's growing economic power.

[@scorpioneldar]

@@abdirahmanmahdi9458 these videos take months to produce. any video produced will likely be at least a month out of date unless it is a rush job (which actually raises the chance of error.) this makes videos like this particularly useless during civil war but highly valuable to stable nations. even if he knows it is out of date at time of posting he has little choice but to post if he is going to have something to post at all and keep his channel.

[@TheMrgoodmanners]

No it was not accurate by any means. People who knew abt ethiopia knew how wrong it was. A landlocked country with such serious socio cultural problems can never be anything but a poor country in the end. Ethiopia is an extremely poor country even by african standards. Most horn countries in that continent are. Outside addis ababa the poverty is almost absolute

[@scintillam_dei]

Nostradamus also predicted war. But then there's the Bible which predicts that the entire world will unite to destroy Israel. For a long time Israel did not even exist, so how could the prophecy have come true, ever? How many nations have resurrected? Yet, thanks to the Templar pawn of the Synagogue of Satan who has persecuted their own people to hide their tracks, Hitler, Israel is a thing again, sot he statge is being set for the fulfillment of Zechariah 14. See my series crushign atheist myths.

[@jackdias9263]

I live for the day Shirvan makes an intro that says “…I don’t even have a profound metaphor for this one. This is an absolute fucking mess.”

[@cumunist2120]

It’ll happen with the water wars

[@Carewolf]

"The first casualty of war is intelligence."

[@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986]

Shirvan intros in the future: “so the balkans is a sh*tshow, what else is new?”

[@jackdias9263]

@@Carewolf I love this

[@aboubacaramine8689]

I read it in his voice and it still sounds sophisticated

[@bigboineptune9567]

...And now the Ethiopian government has pushed the rebels hundreds of miles away from the capital and is now crossing into Tigray itself. It goes to show how fast things change and how easy it is to speak too soon.

[@sid300e]

I mean no one expected Chinese drones

[@Amin-dp5fz]

@@sid300e and Iran!

[@jonathanmamo2079]

@@sid300e lol, don’t play with Ethiopia

[@SovietNyanCat]

@gatherington spot the football fan

[@CHERKE_JEMA5575]

This is what the Italians thought at the Berlin Conference to scramble Africa. 'Ethnically fractured and easy to conquer'. They were in for a surprise. History repeats itself and the rebels were in for a surprise. And now they and their people are begging for a blockade and starving to end. Never underestimate us. We are always united against any enemy of our nation. That's how we survived 3000 years until now, odd for an African black Civilization they say 😂 Next time anyone tries to challenge our existence at least do some research better than the White Europeans.

[@NoAmmo22]

According to the most recent reports, the Ethiopian military has recaptured many towns in Afar and Amhara, including Dessie and Kombolcha. So I'm not sure if Abiy is facing defeat yet. TPLF has also kind of gone on the backfoot and they are accusing Iran, Turkey and the UAE for arming Abiy's goverment.

[@the16blackmeccas68]

Now that sounds closer to the TRUE story. TPLF has many well paid media talking heads spreading FAKE NEWS...and it seems like u might be on the payroll?

[@bensirach1985]

@@the16blackmeccas68 No TPLF has many refugees in North America and UK who have used English language knowledge and digital tech access (tax payer funded) to manipulate the narrative of what's really happening in Ethiopia. If Tigray and Oromo alliance falls and Abiy clamps down to secure national security, we can thank those social media Fifth Column fighters for the USA and UK being BSD'd (boycott, sanctions, divestment) by the Ethiopian government. We may not even be allowed to do banking, business, or even travel to the nation if it's determined we cost the nation a fortune to undo our demoralizing media.

[@bemneta3380]

@@bensirach1985 You are specking 100% facts, just search up Tplf or ethiopia war on twitter and you will see thousands of TPLF bots

[@which_dan]

Tplf is obviously aided by the west, from propaganda to support .... as an Ethiopian, I see this as westerners making another plot against countries who refuse to fall under their grip. You saw what happened to Iraq, Syria and libya...the list goes on

[@the16blackmeccas68]

@@which_dan interestingly if u study AKSUM the AKSUMITE DIPLOMAT CLASS has made a number of questionable allegiances since its inception...ie. Rome and Aksum 1AD-5AD. who together toppled Napata and most of The Great Nubian Empire.

[@Crizakafrijolito]

"Arm yourselves" has to be one of the most terrifying phrase a government can tell to its citizens.

[@stevencooper4422]

But effective, looks like enough militia organized to route rebel force these past few days

[@b0realis527]

@@stevencooper4422 Now the citizens have guns And they almost certainly don't like how the government handled it Seems like a pretty good time for a coup

[@which_dan]

Well, the "rebels" are armed by foreign powers

[@tomaszzalewski4541]

Sounds like the Russian provisional government arming citizens of St Petersburg just before Lenin did his thing. I can't possibly see what can go wrong

[@fullmetaltheorist]

God damn. They must be terrified.

[@Berkana]

Well, I guess this ends Ethiopia's prospects for being a regional super power, per your older video on this topic.

[@magatism]

TPLF has been decisively deafeated, this video is one month late. Gerd will yet make Ethiopia a powerhouse of Africa.

[@zachbrown7574]

@@magatism that's true?

[@phoglebice]

This video is waaay off, the ragtag army of the TPLF has been completly decimated😂

[@kiro6119]

@@zachbrown7574 no

[@fayzjibril8125]

Still the site of AU

[@yousufaman1738]

Quick correction the conflict started when TPLF attacked northern command and fired rockets to Asmara(Eritrea).. it is not the govt that decided to attack first.

[@BM-df9bp]

Nope lol. Abiy's lies are becoming exposed by the day.

[@yousufaman1738]

@@BM-df9bp ain’t no body lying except you Agame and your white masters in the west… when there’s ceasefire you like to say we are advancing to Addis and when the federal forces counter the TPLF attacks you say there’s genocide. Tell me who is lying? 🤷🏽‍♂️

[@lopsideduser-lz1bg2oc7r]

@@BM-df9bp It is funny how the Tplf itself admitted to the attack which you are denying

[@jasonc0065]

TPLF is a leftover entity from the communist days. Ethiopians are becoming Pan-Africanists. They are tired of tribalism. TPLF is Antifa.

[@orionstark]

When one asks "who benefits?" The first name that comes to mind is Egypt. I imagine that this civil war has slowed construction on the Nile dam Addis Ababa was building. If Ethiopia collapses as a state, then it will be much easier for the people in Cairo to exert control over the river that defines their nation.

[@seanthe100]

I think the dam has already completed construction though its just waiting to be filled. It's already started to fill.

[@soyosuki]

Not in the slightest. Power generation is about to start and Ethiopia has strengthened its relationship with Turkey (Erdogan invited the PM of Ethiopia with elaborate ceremony and Ethiopian PM reciprocated). A clear signal to Egypt.

[@which_dan]

Not just cairo ...... also people in some white, roman style buildings across the seas

[@orionstark]

@@which_dan how does Turkey benefit from chaos in Ethiopia? Or did you mean Russia?

[@jaideepshekhar4621]

@@orionstark I imagine its Italy.

[@jamesh4616]

I wonder if Egypt will back Tigray rebels and use them as a pushing point if they need to stop Ethiopia draining the Nile.

[@mikiasg4259]

thats is highly unlikely to happen becouse the dam was initiated by tigrayan leaders and is widely supported by the people of tigray

[@kremepye3613]

Id say that's exactly what's happening

[@kalomboC]

Best believe Egypt is already backing them to the hilt!

[@Allofmynamestaken]

Egypt is enjoying all this in the background but it's position shouldn't be overestimated. Ethiopians agree on the necesitiy of the dam if nothing else and whomever is in charge. Egypt cannot even destroy the dam without causing widespread destruction on itself. It's only realistic option is to negotiate in good faith but it seems wholy incapable of diplomacy.

[@huss-elite5538]

@@Allofmynamestaken LMFAOOO we already did. The Ethiopians were the ones that terminated the agreement

[@adnan7919]

It's sad seeing my country go from one of the most prominent country in Africa to a civil war in a matter of weeks

[@MenkoDany]

I hope the federl gvt wins, not because they're the good guys, but because they're the least bad guys with a realistic chance

[@kamkam22100]

sad that you can't read history, it was clear that war will break out

[@UnholyWrath3277]

@@kamkam22100 nothing is ever certain. People are surprising all the time and many "for sure wars" of history were averted by timely diplomacy such as the era after Napoleon when diplomacy won out thru many issues and several crisis level things between empires. It's unfortunate in this case that didn't happen

[@gd1529]

Yeah because of stupid abiy ahmed

[@debayanghosh4535]

Egypt played really well.....

[@yodaheabebe3756]

As someone who lives in Addis, I used to think you're well informed. Turns out you're seriously misinformed.

[@jayasuriyas2604]

So tell us what's happening

[@devinhigoy221]

What is happening rn?

[@oneday3829]

@@jayasuriyas2604 As of today, most areas that were controlled by TPLF has been freed.

[@johnmurphy5689]

@@oneday3829 yep he is right.

[@jasminrowe4498]

He’s looking for our comment to show what’s happening in Ethiopia. Don’t entertain him. Ethiopian business is Ethiopian business.

[@danielhailemariam6014]

I understand creating content regularly is difficult. But this segment is a fail, quarter baked. Your analysis is proved wrong in two days. Dessie is recaptured by government forces. This piece gave me a good reflection to really question your previous segments that I took as fact.

[@James-xv8xv]

You have to take into consideration the time it takes to research and produce a video like this. With this case the tide turned far too quickly for the video to be accurate.

[@danielhailemariam6014]

@@James-xv8xv I understand, but it is important to try to contact people from different opposing views who are close to the matter while researching. They can give perspectives and facts that can be missed from just reading published materials online. That can also introduce biases but with meticulous researching, one can reach closer to the reality on the ground and make one's analysis more sound.

[@TheOne30264]

This channel argument is very one sided. I realized that a long time ago. Don't take this channel as facts.

[@James-xv8xv]

@@danielhailemariam6014 Agreed.

[@TheUneducatedTeacher]

One person can not always be right. KM Hemmans The KZbinr

[@hgetahun]

This is one the worst misinformation videos I've ever seen. According to this video the war has already been lost by Ethiopia, which is far from the truth. The Ethiopian forces are beating back the TPLF back to Tigray as of beginning of December . The OLA is not a serious threat to the central government . Check your facts please .

[@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns]

You can't have a country of different ethnic groups that are geographical separated into states/provinces with a central Government that isn't inclusive of all ethnicities and states. If such a country doesn't inevitably collapse or fall into civil war, then the central government is only an imperial ruler of foreign territory and people, not a legitimate government of that territory and people.

[@elephantman2112]

The constitutional right to secede unilaterally is a nice touch, too.

[@MA-go7ee]

The Ethiopian central Govt wasn't inclusive? How so? As I understood it, the Tigray were rebelling because they lost the significantly outsized influence (compared to their population) in the Govt.

[@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns]

@@MA-go7ee _"(compared to their population)"_ You don't seemingly understand how a lot of countries that are either federal states or countries that have autonomous entities work. A federal agreement usually acts as an agreement between federated states or autonomous entities where these states or entities often agree how power is shared between these states or autinomous entities, even regardless of election results. Otherwise some of these states or autonomous entities would go their own way. These states or entities aren't like a political party that receives 10% of the vote: they wouldn't expect only 10% of the share of power at the federal level or be relegated to Opposition status like a political party. In an ideal federation, the central government only governs on matters that affect the nation as a whole and leaves all other powers to its states. If you completely exclude a key state from any form of decision making in the central government then you are basically saying that state is being ruled by others. Comparing Ethiopia to the US, Brazil Germany, Canada or Australia might not be the best example. Ethiopia is a very unique country in regard to its ethnic makeup and internal divisions. Probably more comparable to the former Yugoslavia or possibly Nigeria.

[@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns]

@@MA-go7ee if my comment was too long, simply put, Ethiopia is a nation of separate nations.

[@samih5130]

It worked for 300 years

[@benim4449]

Ethiopia has won. This whole video was a waste of time- TPLF forces have been slaughtered

[@benim4449]

@@jerrylev8887 Is that why TPLF forces are running back to Mekelle today while their Leader is publicily pleading to the UN for a peace deal. GTFO 🤣🤣

[@Eyammovie]

@@jerrylev8887 Jesus just do some googling bozo ... The tplf forces have declared that they have retreated from all fronts...

[@bigguy10100]

Damn Caspian. You got it wrong this time !!! The tables have turned and Abiy is on the offensive against the TPLF. The Ethiopoan forces have recaptured more 70 % of the contested area including Dessie, kombolcha etc.

[@TheZachary86]

Caspian clearly has his bias. You see this with nagorno war, his commentary on China, Ethiopia conflict and others.

[@endriasy3807]

It's his bias. The critic of Abiy as a Unitarian leader who wants to reinstate an amhara hegemony is by far the worst take I've seen. It's straight from OLA and TPLF propaganda which has nothing to show for in the real world.

[@chronological3957]

Patriotic Ethiopians losing their shit when they saw on internet their country is becoming a failed state

[@Nasrudith]

The real question is the 30% they haven't captured and if they are especially defensible or if the 70% are a 'trap' that is hard to defend and thus allowed to be taken temporarily.

[@user-qy6tu9ip9v]

​@@chronological3957Nah, more like when biased youtube pages make up trash instead of doing a bit of research

[@abdirahmanmahdi9458]

''Ethiopia is one of the few african countries that enjoys fundamental geographical advantages'' Also Ethiopia: Landlocked and depends heavily on Djibouti for imports. (every country in the horn of africa is not landlocked except Ethiopia n south sudan)

[@sephikong8323]

The last addendum is appreciated but don't forget that Sudan might look like it has a coastline but in practice, it's landlocked

[@ericc9321]

@@sephikong8323 I think they were talking about South Sudan but you make a good point too

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

yeah ... not colonized... literally lost the north of the country

[@susetomahardiko7777]

@@sephikong8323 I thought Sudan have city called Port Sudan...is that city isolated?

[@David-gy6fv]

80% of the fresh water river's in Egypt, Sudan, Northern Kenya and Somali, Djibouti and Eritrea come from Ethiopia. That's fundamental advantage.

[@medio-litro]

Video would’ve been accurate if it was made a week ago, but Abiy has the Bayraktar now and there’s not much Tigray can do. The only large scale power generation facility in Tigray has been taken out and the ENDF has successfully recaptured the majority of land in the Amhara region, with the exception of the area around Weldiya. There is no feasible path towards a TPLF victory anymore.

[@MrPrometheus1190]

This is a better analysis then this late video

[@shacabweynaha801]

Hh if u think drone will help to secure total victory than u know nothing about militry startegy. Ethiopian militry lack moral to fight .and that is common when civil war occurs becos j killing u fellow country men not outsider. I am somali by the way not even tigray. I even hate tplf myself bit truth is the truth ethiopian military lacks moral to fight

[@eyobedw1]

Exactly. tables have turned now.

[@Veldtian1]

yep and in a couple months time.. another unforeseen event and your info is suddenly old news.

[@thawfeeqjamaal1777]

@@shacabweynaha801 Only drones did win the Azeri Armeni war

[@abdulmenankedir6445]

First, As an Ethiopian i would like to say i used to respect u because u used to do thorough research on the topics u presented. But this one lacks a whole lot of factual information and contains many half baked truths. I consider myself to be relatively objective and try to state the fact as confirmed by reputable organizations and not by mainstream media. So here it goes 1. PM Dr. Abiy didn't start the war, TPLF did as confirmed by a joint report by a UN body and the Ethiopian Human rights watch and also their own lieutenant named Seko Ture and u can confirm this. 2. Addis Ababa isn't at the risk of falling to the rebels. At one point it seemed that way but it has almost been two weeks since that has been averted. Maybe u scripted this then but then i saw u included that PM Abiy has joined the war. At the risk of sounding like a fanboy, since he joined the fight the war has turned 180 instantly. TPLF leaders would admit to this. 3. OLF and TPLF especially OLF doesn't have a battle hardened military. The country of Ethiopia used to have many higher ranking officials from tigray but the rest was made up of the different Ethiopian ethnicities which still are in the army and Ethiopian army is one of the best in Africa. TPLF generals are being outsmarted by the "less experienced" generals of Ethiopia in terms of day to day operations on the ground. The tplf reached to this point through brute force and sheer body count. 4. U gave credit to the Alula Abanega as being an inspiration to the Ethiopian and tigrayan warrior spirit. Can u rephrase it as a continuance of that spirit because it lived on for thousands of years before then tbh. But the major error is in thinking Abiy ahmed agitated them into this war or that he didn't try hard enough to resolve this whole issue through peaceful means. Believe me he tried. First he let the former members of the TPLF group go and live peacefully even though most of Ethiopians have suffered under their rule. In the spirit of keeping the peace and then when the warmongering started he sent rhe elderly and most respected members of the society to broker a peace but the tplf refused. There have been other numerous events to show abiy went out of his way to keep the peace.

[@zemuyasm1875]

Well said brother.

[@belewyifru3624]

This war has taught me a valuable lesson. The news and analyses we hear and watch everyday is mostly half baked usually biased. Thank you for taking your time to highlight the major errors in this video

[@damianwalker5281]

Great summary of how this conflict started and Abiy's many attempts at avoiding it. Don't forget PM Abiy even imposed a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew the ETH army after defeating them and the TPLF still didn't surrender.

[@rahim7986]

Hats off to you, sir. Thank you.

[@zemuyasm1875]

@@rahim7986 Thanks a lot, Abdalahim. I have said only the truth.

[@nebiyoufasil5007]

This Caspian report video lacks some truth 1. It is fact that Tigray rebels attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian military stationed in Tigray. So, this was infact a rule enforcement operation and not an offensive that was unsolicited. TPLF leaders admitted to carrying out pre-emptive strikes several times in their local media. Former US secretary Pompeo also admitted this. 2. TPLF has been preparing for this war for decades since it took power in 1991. Their ideology of Tigrayan dominance or else demise to the Ethiopian state is what made this situation. They also recruited child soldiers as well as brought women and elderly to wage a people's war through human wave. 2. The gains maid by OLF are rather here-say that are not based on facts on the ground. OLF is actually not that well trained and not well equipped. The OLF has never actually fought against the government forces, rather what it does is kill innocent people and destroy public facilities. 3. You didn't give enough background what made the TPLF chose the Mekele-Addis route. TPLF has also tried attacking through West Tigary(Wolkait), Gondar and Afar areas, but was heavily battered. They gained relative success through this only route was by shelling cities with artilery and tanks, Spreading rumours that they are approaching a city to make people leave their homes, bandits who lived in the community and where serving as sleeper cells to spy and give coordinates for the artilery attacks. The human wave method they employed also meant soldiers can't cope with the influx of unarmed and armed people coming their that they had to retreat. So, they aren't battle hardened as you put them out to be. 4. The king who defeated the Italians in Adwa wasn't actually Tigrean. King Menelik II who was from the Shoa province along with other governors from every corner of Ethiopia marched to Adwa to defeat the Italians. The guy you showed on the picture was a warlord that was governing Tigray & Eritrea. This information is actually available everywhere. There is a lot more false information that you have provided, but i think it's good that you do your thorough research on matters relating to Ethiopia like with your other videos. You can't be careless because it's an African matter.

[@tesfomkahsay7743]

lol

[@kylemccormack1785]

This video might require a part 2 or an update, very recent fighting has changed the situation on the ground.

[@HonorableBeniah-A]

Lol, no it hasn’t.

[@samih5130]

@@HonorableBeniah-A lol, yes it have

[@NevelWong]

@@samih5130 lol, provide sources

[@salokin3087]

@@samih5130 Abiy said the ENDF won in December, how is that working out? Its only really changed when mekelle is retaken

[@khit2365]

yeh i thought the same thing as soon as i saw the video upload, the most recent news ive seen have shown pretty significant gains by the endf towards tigray

[@box5319]

Things are changing so drastically in Ethiopia in the last few days.the Ethiopian federal forces has managed to recapture large territories from the TPLF force again,leading to the withdrawal of the latter,a move which they (read tplf)described as a strategic move in order to avoid the total collapse of their force. The tigray regional president gave a presser yesterday evening,explaining how his force couldn't withstand the Juggernaut of federal military thus retreat. The large military man power and support of several ethnic group in the country which often saw TPLF rule as totalitarian may have played to the advantage/renaissance of the federal force. My impartiality and neutrality notwithstanding, I hold the considered opinion that historical iron fist rule of TPLF may had played into its current woes for they don't have the backing of any other ethnicity, considering the fact that Ethiopia is a country of more than 80 ethnic group

[@benjaminwatch1361]

This report is a bit outdated

[@alanfulcher460]

Then why are Oromo’s teaming up with the TPLF to fight against one of their own?

[@broyderpole7497]

This is wrong though, separatists from the Oromo and 7 other ethnic groups have joined the TPLF.

[@itsolivier]

@@samiraa3671 possibly but its also possible that they have shared government rule, as this outdated report shows nothing is impossible, even unity. Though If its true Tplf ruled with such an iron fist , i can sense their will always be animosity between them, blessings to Ethiopia.

[@amhabereket]

@@alanfulcher460 Please don't bracket oromia, a; region with 40+million people with Oromo liberation front Shene , OLF Shene (a rag-tag rebel army with little support.).

[@yohannesabate3924]

Ashamed, a blatant reporting, intentionally ignored the very fundamentals why the war started in the first place and how the EPRDF (Tigrayan) who ruled the country with an iron fist for almost 30 years brought the country to this time in history, in short, this reporting is a kind of infomercial for Tigrayan force.

[@oliviermuhigirwa6576]

Exactly

[@abyssiniaethiopia7667]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oJ-pm5xspJ5qa9U

[@sandeepmehta5311]

I had visited last Ethiopia 🇪🇹 in 2019 and was so amazed by its people and food, especially Injara. Everyone was so friendly with each other and never thought one day have to see this kind of videos. My prayers is that all party lay down arms and start talking and have diplomacy and peace talks in large interest of the nation. Let there be peace. Prayers for world peace ☮️

[@9krio]

What kind of bullshit Psychedelics are you on?? THERE WILL NEVER BE WORLD PEACE ONLY THROUGH FORCE. See example: the USA

[@TheWoollyFrog]

Send more thoughts & prayers. That will surely end the conflict.

[@shiveshsingh3169]

@@TheWoollyFrog It still is better than bitching about a positive sentiment on the internet. What else do you expect an individual to do? Go there and try to make everyone come to the negotiation table? Be pragmatic, but not an a$$hole

[@TheWoollyFrog]

@@shiveshsingh3169 Just easily amused by virtue signaling and empty gestures. That's all.

[@9krio]

@@TheWoollyFrog: welcome to the Pessimist club

[@chudi388]

If you guys are current on the civil war in Ethiopia, you will know that since Abiy, the prime Minster of Ethiopia, a former lieutenant Colonel joined the fight almost 2 weeks ago, to lead the Ethiopian army, the tide has turned against the Tigrayan forces, who are no losing former captured territories, and are now in full retreat. Caspian Report, get your facts right.

[@antonschmidt1698]

The drone footage at 7:26 is not from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, but Windhoek, Namibia. Still very informative. Thanks.

[@matthewtopping2061]

Thank you for your diligence

[@antonschmidt1698]

@@matthewtopping2061 Thank you.

[@frankscott1708]

It is indicative of the quality of this analysis, which is basically propaganda.

[@RUTHLESSambition5]

This videois very wrong.

[@antonschmidt1698]

@@frankscott1708 true, but at least he tries to be somewhat objective.

[@KnowDude]

lol this video is probably the worst aging video of this channel, Getachew K. Reda of TPLF just announced that the Tigray forces pulled out of the Amhara & Afar regions. Don't make such bold claims like "Addis Abbeba will fall in a few weeks" in the future, such statements are sensationalist and exaggarated and don't fit to a channel dedicated to analysing geopolitics and conflicts.

[@p00bix]

In his Afghanistan video he suggested that Afghanistan may fall within 'months', but instead it fell mere days later. I think he overcorrected in this video, trying to avoid the mistake with his Afghanistan video by predicting imminent collapse, but instead proving to be a worse mistake. Plus reporting on the Ethiopian Civil War is INCREDIBLY messy right now, due to the massive restrictions placed on international journalists by the Ethiopian Government and TPLF alike, with pretty much all information on the conflict having to be pieced together from finding crumbs of truth in both sides' propaganda, along with equally unreliable tweets. Even in the comments here you have people saying that the TPLF has been entirely defeated, saying that the ENDF has not committed war crimes, or claiming that no Tigrays are being put into concentration camps--all claims which are easily proven wrong, and are far more nonsensical than Caspian's bad prediction. Almost everyone in Ethiopia is so locked in to their own agenda that actual facts no longer matter, and as a result, outsiders trying to learn about the conflict really struggle to distinguish what "news" is true, and what is false.

[@amanueltesfaye7788]

Wow it is amazing how a video can be so out date and biased. I bet he knew this but had already finished making the video so he just posted it. I used to think you wanted to inform your audience rather than disseminating wrong/out of date information, but you proved me wrong.

[@aliamir6498]

Missed the mark on this one by a mile , for someone who reports unbiased news . extremley dissapointed

[@sligoneazy8904]

Can you expound? What was inaccurate ?

[@michaelfeleke2038]

@@sligoneazy8904 The whole story was upside down, Abiy now pushing to Mekelle to capture and dispose tplf from the this Earth, Making Ethiopia Superpower once again in the region and Africa..

[@habeshasocial]

@@sligoneazy8904 i can't say this or that,everything is wrong in this video

[@hexingcan]

This aged like milk

[@riichobamin7612]

As an Indian, a country that is developing, I was REALLY excited to see how much can Ethiopia develop and lead Africa. But watching the current affairs in the last 1 year, I am really disappointed and saddened. I hope all Ethiopians can co-exist and work together even though India too has many ethnic groups, all of them have co-existed peacefully (largely) and it has played in India's favour, just like it can for Ethiopia.

[@riichobamin7612]

@Right-Wing Persian bro, Pakistan and Bangladesh region were united with India under Maurya Empire, Gupta and Mughal empire for centuries. And of course it wasn't perfect but it wasn't a full blown civil war like this 🤦🏻.

[@riichobamin7612]

@Right-Wing Persian but we aren't in India are we ? All of the ethnicities are united, mainly because we learned that if the peole of the subcontinent are disunited, even a company from a small island nation can conquer us. If India can do it, so can Ethiopia, and I am hoping that Ethiopia does it.

[@TheWoollyFrog]

India's next. Forced super-states composed of a variety of loosely related cultures with their own homelands, languages and religions that are held together by a centralised government will always face these tensions until their inevitable collapse. History is filled with such examples.

[@omar23994]

Kashmir? I watched a lot of violence lately in India, especially against Muslims whether in Kashmir or in India itself.. the hate speech has grown really fast there especially in the last few years.

[@riichobamin7612]

@@TheWoollyFrog listen here my smart ass: 1. Indians were NOT forced together. We came together to fight against the British. Also India has been, for many centuries, ruled by a single govt in the Mauryan empire, Gupta empire and the Mughal empire (barring a few places like Tamil Nadu and my homestate of Arunachal Pradesh). 2. Most of Indians have VERY SIMILAR culture and religion. If you know Assamese, you can understand Bengali and Odiya. Also, a bit og Hindi, Nepali etc. And as for religion most as Hindus. 3. Even for minorities (and I am one, I belong to a tribe called Apatani which has around 50K members), India doesn't try to assimilate them like how China does (by the Sinification attempts by the CCP). India is by no means a perfect nation when it comes to minority rights, but it is also not the worst. Infact Muslims have risen as a percentage of Indian population while Hindus (the majority) have decreased. 4. Also "India is next", do you even know about Indian politics ? The current govt won by a landslide in last general election. And in 2015, the UPA alliance peacefully stepped down to their opposition, i.e. there was a peaceful transfer of power which is a hallmark of a functional democracy. No incident like the Capitol Hill riots or anything.

[@ahmedmuawia2447]

That might have been true, but recent changes show a different image. The problem is, access to information is hard to say the least. Since both sides are lying.

[@tomaszzalewski4541]

As always. It is still a civil war after all

[@alekabirru5937]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/bIbTdaZrr9ZmppI

[@tewodrossamson790]

@@tomaszzalewski4541 a civil war is among civilians , this is between a used to be oligarch turned rebel v the rest of the population

[@dragatus]

@@tewodrossamson790 Civil war doesn't mean it's between civilians. It means it's between different factions from within one country.

[@jhonsamuel9904]

@@tewodrossamson790 - Its an Ethnic civil war… its always have been so.

[@atifchoudhury5180]

I know these videos take a while to make and the events they cover often feature fast-moving developments, but this video is already outdated. Addis is no longer on the verge of falling to rebel forces (for now, anyway).

[@emmanuelt504]

Yep he put up this video at a really bad time

[@gauthampai896]

What happened?

[@soyosuki]

@@gauthampai896 There was this unfounded hysteria that the capital was going to fall to the terrorist TPLF; however, if you look at the situation as of the last week, Tigrayans have been extricated from their previous "holdings".

[@MbeyaIsHome]

Addis was never in danger. Tigray forces were 200 km away, and over a large mountain range.

[@yohannes2kifle]

@@MbeyaIsHome Yes but you would be amazed how many "trusted" and "established" news media reported that the capital is under siege and about to be taken over by rebels

[@imperiomexicano1508]

"Rebels turned into Rulers." reminds me of the fate of Zimbabwe and Eritrea.

[@glntv5217]

I mean in Eritreas case, isaias was always a power hungry jerk, leaving the original revolutionary front to create his own that he is in charge kf

[@ashleyoasis7948]

Every one inspired by the Taliban

[@glntv5217]

@@ashleyoasis7948 no. That's pretty dumb to say, Zimbabwe and Eritrea had dictators before Taliban existed

[@which_dan]

Ironically, Eritrea rebelled out of Ethiopia haha

[@randomusername8767]

@@glntv5217Isiais did not create the EPLF.

[@hussenabduselam7137]

I used to respect Caspian Report, thank you for letting me know you're not as impartial as I thought.

[@dandre8019]

I am from Ethopia and your pronounciation of Ethopian words is really good. For me it is a sign that you respect the Ethopian culture by learning the correct accent. Thank you so much for your effort and respect towards Ethopia my friend!

[@millevenon5853]

How bad is the situation? Which side do you support?

[@KnowDude]

You should have waited for a few days before recording this, TPLF lost almost all gains of November in the last week after ENDF and Amhara/Afar militias started a counterattack.

[@darrenbutler9819]

Hard to tell if true since sources is most likely from central government.

[@amdetsion3256]

@Rose Try posting facts next time.

[@shangothunder1055]

Of course no actual proof of any of this.🤣

[@eho6380]

@@amdetsion3256 Try shutting your mouth

[@soyosuki]

@@RealSavage7 "trust me, bro"? you do realize that there are news sources outside this KZbin channel, right? it's all over the news/ social media bud.

[@eth1636]

Your facts are way far away from truth, I used to enjoy your other videos but now can’t help wondering if facts referred in those videos was grossly wrong

[@amanuelb90]

May I dare say that CaspianReport has dropped a couple of balls on this video about the conflict in Ethiopia. I'm a regular of this highly informative and well researched channel, but this one seemed rushed, untimely and superficial. First, on the day this video dropped, the TPLF has been pushed out of 2 key cities and are on the back foot. And, lack the capability to march to Addis, if they did. Second, the OLA is a band of bandits without clear goal and at best a tool of TPLF to cause havoc and mass murder civilians, mainly Amharas in Oromia, to stock ethnic strife. They most certainly don't have the backing of the majority of Oromos. Third, while Federalism is important and the way to go for such a diverse country, the type of Federalism championed by TPLF was of an Ethnic based, for their use to divide and concur the rest of Ethiopia, as they're a minority group. This type of federalism was aimed at distorting and blurring a unifying national identity, which was a direct cause of many horrors in the last 3 decades, including the current war. While it's yet unclear, if Abiy chooses a path difference from the current arrangement, it'll be to move the country from identity politics towards politics of ideas. Which is why he has the backing of the majority of Ethiopians. It's a strech of astronomical proportion to suggest this will bring the 'hegemony of the Amharas'. Abiy not being an Amhara on top all the other points should nullfy such conclusions. Lastly, some of the videos used are clearly not Ethiopian locations, which is disappointing. Hopefully, CaspianReport will have a follow up video soon, with the new developments, and that time better researched and analysed. I'll be stay tooned.

[@kundasam4173]

Not sure how I feel about this analysis. The rebels never had a chance in hell of taking Addis Ababa and the federal government seems too incompetent to secure a critical victory. Either way this conflict is heavily in favor of the Abiy government.

[@kitkat47chrysalis95]

not if joe biden has anything to say about it.... american air support goes brrrrr (joe biden recently decided to support the rebels... for some reason)

[@TheSunderingSea]

@@bretalvarez3097 OR, THE FAR MORE LIKELY SCENARIO: The US doing a favor for its Egyptian allies by preventing the Damming of the Nile project from getting completed.

[@reneroux2391]

@@kitkat47chrysalis95 support through words means nothing cause they tried to use Ethiopia’s neighbours who all refused these rebels will get crashed plus it won’t be the first time that Murica sides with the losing side

[@reneroux2391]

@@TheSunderingSea the dam is still going although slow but it didn’t stop

[@javajav3004]

@@kitkat47chrysalis95 If you want a reason I can give it to you. In Obama's term, the TPLF won with 97% of the vote (what a joke) and Obama visited Addis and proclaimed it to be the best democracy in all of Africa. Their roots into the TPLF run deep

[@Mike-tz4dd]

This analysis was outdated on the day it is uploaded given the war has already shifted in favor of the Ethiopian government with the routing of the TPLF forces from most strategic towns. Even more it is troubling how one would complete this analysis in the absence of all the foreign actors involved from EGYPT to UAE to USA and many others who are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict. I expected more. He also concluded the conflict has divided Ethiopia, which is the opposite of the effect of the war. Any meaningful research on this will show you the country (and Ethiopians globally) are united against the TPLF forces and their foreign supporters. The said local groups in alliance with TPLF are all figure heads without real support. He also says negotiations won't be possible because Ethiopia (a UN founding member and HQ of African Union) has a remarkable inaptitude to commit to agreements that were brokered through negotiations, and sites 3 agreements from different periods/context as evidence. By this definition, no country will probably negotiate again. There were also other historical flaws and narratives, so I hope there will be a better research effort for future videos on Ethiopia.

[@mileshenderson7092]

I agree, he was pretty off on this one. You can tell alot of his information is from the Western propaganda view and not a deep understanding of the situation on the ground. Ethiopia is incredibly complex, and surface level analysis always lack depth.

[@hiruthaile2666]

I totally agree! outdated and inaccurate, Ethiopians are united than ever.

[@patrickreynolds6270]

@@hiruthaile2666 lol purging your military of an ethnic group is the farthest thing from unity. You certainly have a strange definition of unity.

[@zelalemfita4932]

Well said

[@Xenomorph-hb4zf]

@@patrickreynolds6270 That is just one ethic group. All the other ethnic groups are on the military so yes they are united against the TPLF. It doesn't have to include all ethnic groups it just has to be the overwhelming majority of ethnic groups

[@throwaway3286]

Uhh did you think to check the news before posting this video? They’ve been taking back regions ever since the PM got to the frontlines and got a surge in recruitments….it’s very weird how people have been commenting on this issue almost like anticipating for the country to completely collapse.

[@icellowhite9256]

This video didn't age well. Man was he wrong.

[@MrMiket102]

This video is slightly outdated, my friend. Federal Ethiopian troops + militia have already seized back control of the vital strategic towns of Dessie and Kombulcha, which means the capital is no longer under threat. Furthermore, TPLF forces in the area are encircled and without air cover. The war is far from over, but right now things look grim for the rebels.

[@abyssiniaethiopia7667]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oJ-pm5xspJ5qa9U

[@liquidgames7362]

I didn't realize how beautiful a country Ethiopia is.

[@bigbootros4362]

It really is. And huge. I was there in 2019. It was so nice. I'm so sad that such a beautiful place is again plagued with war.

[@alekabirru5937]

It is. kzbin.info/www/bejne/bIbTdaZrr9ZmppI

[@muaadsaeed576]

@@bigbootros4362it’s huge somali afar oromo amhara Tigray all are apart of ut

[@bigbootros4362]

@@muaadsaeed576 well... No. Somalia belongs to Somalia. You could also say all of Africa belongs to Ethiopia. But it doesn't.

[@simontesfaghiorgish8262]

First of all you forgot to mention how this war started second you forgot that T.PL.F launched rokets to Asmara whether you like it or not Eritrea have a Right to defense itself

[@cageybee7221]

Deputy: "sir, you are losing the war!" Abiy: "i'mma fight it myself" Deputy: "but you're the president" Abiy: "no you"

[@KM-fl5jq]

If only world war 2 leaders, who send their citizens in certain death, would do the same when things got tuff. No - just smile and wave.. Smile and wave..

[@mirzahamzabaig5667]

@@KM-fl5jq I mean Hitler was a soldier in WW 1 and Churchill did attack Gallipoli.

[@Hi-xu9xn]

*Prime Minister

[@Mike-ge7pe]

Just want to say thanks Shirvan, Lachin, and everyone else who makes these videos happen. I’m sure the lines of objectivity can be blurry, so I appreciate the efforts taken to try to remain objective in your reporting.

[@jankopransky2551]

Just realized that "Sağ ol!" is nowadays more actual than in a long time. Sağ ol Şirvan, and please keep bringing us this awsome content!

[@theprogressionofafilmmaker8760]

This is an op-ed. Reports muddied with your conclusions in a way that'll captivate on first contact but anyone who reads more than a headline can see how irresponsible this content is.

[@RH-oe1dc]

As of now, Dessie has been recaptured by Ethiopia and the rebels are in full retreat. funny how fast things can change

[@stevencooper4422]

I think it was a feigned retreat that Ethiopian forces did. Overextended rebel lines are easier to route.

[@AtticusAmericanus]

The House of Solomon would have not pulled this bullshit.

[@dagimsds]

Bad timing to release this video, when the Ethiopian military gained 45 towns back

[@Eyammovie]

OMG I thought this guy was very knowledgeable until this video !!!!! 85% of the video is misinformation... He said with in days Addis Ababa will be taken !!!! But the news is the rebels have been defeated and they declared that they have retreated from all fronts!!!!!!!! And he made many historical errors so my respect for him went down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@aschalewfeleke3346]

It is completely wrong analysis about the Ethiopian history during the colonial period. Second, the analysis exaggerated the situation and the rebels were 230km away from the capital, but you mentioned as if they were at outskirts of Addis. Thirdly, you mentioned PM Abiy would like to establish centrally controlled govt which is absolutely wrong analysis and motivated to blackmail. Ethiopia prevails !!

[@bereketgetachew1046]

This video is a bit misleading represent the only side of the rebels, it doesn't really show the side of Amharas and PM effort to bring TPLF in to the fold Also most gains by the rebels have been retaken by ENDF including Dessie Although the war will continue waging 😭

[@sarantis1995]

I clicked immediately on this. Thanks for covering this topic from. Such a close perspective, over time

[@RealLifeTech187]

wow just wow! you did a way better research and analysis of the conflict(s) than most if not all major international news agencies 👌 you didn't pick a side and correctly portrayed both view points and where roots are and how it could be resolved. Really great video 👍

[@mmaingii]

Shirvan love ur stuff, this is for sure the best geopolitical YT channel out there but as of this week Federal forces have began reclaiming towns from the TPLF and they've made pretty good gains

[@HonorableBeniah-A]

They reclaimed a couple towns with the population of 25.

[@salokin3087]

@@HonorableBeniah-A lmao

[@salokin3087]

Dude, the addis government said the war was over in December, the "gains" are probably just propoganda

[@yourtrappedinmygenjutsu]

@@HonorableBeniah-A savage

[@mmaingii]

@@yourtrappedinmygenjutsu Lalibela and Chifra have been reclaimed by the Federal govt. And they are still marching towards both Weldiya and Dessie (only major strategic points being held by the TPLF). Yes last week Shirvan wudda been correct but this week no. The OLFs advances into Amhara region are also almost all gone. And bruh half of these commenters are only shouting down to the dictator without seeing realities on the ground. And in any case because of these gains that the Federal govt made Chinese FM Wang Yi visited Ethiopia

[@emnieltessema3681]

Where did you find your facts. Almost everything you said is either miss informed or false. Do your reaserch for the love of God.

[@andysawyer647]

The TPLF just lost a lot of ground this week.

[@amhara483]

Lol. This video is a lie. As soon as you posted this. Tigrayans lost all of their gained Territories and have been pushed back to mekelle. They don’t even have control of Tigray in full. Addis Abeba is not going to fall.

[@safisiddiqui6368]

"Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan", Caspian Reports's catch phrases are on another level. Man I really love this guy's work!

[@luigibenni3449]

We say the same in Italian 😁

[@safisiddiqui6368]

@@luigibenni3449 teach me a phrase in italian

[@abyssiniaethiopia7667]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oJ-pm5xspJ5qa9U

[@REgamesplayer]

I see this channel's passion for meaningless, but deep sounding one liners stays strong!

[@JasperKlijndijk]

nice to see i’m not the only one that noticed

[@justanerd414]

It sounds cool tho 😂

[@bespe5189]

Case in point, your comment?

[@REgamesplayer]

@@bespe5189 Case in point, your reply?

[@bespe5189]

@@REgamesplayer damn, bring the burn

[@JerryExploresHistory]

Thanks for reporting on news that I don't often see. Love your channel.

[@bereketberhanu9155]

Watching this after 3 months, it must be very embarrassing for the Caspian

[@gpjedy7379]

TDF has lost a large chunk of its armor from air strikes in the recent week, and is now retreating back to the more defensible positions at Dessie and Kombolcha. And they were never able to really advance in Afar to capture the crucial for trade with the outside world road junction point that connects Addis-Abeba by land to the sea port of Djibouti. We will see was it a rout or a tactical retreat, but a small part of forces even got encircled and TDF lost a lot of ground on the B21 highway after the ENDF captured Laibela back.

[@BristolBerg]

They’ve mastered guerrilla warfare. It is inevitable they’ll retract, reorganize and gain back those positions. It wouldn’t make sense to have a drawn out war face to face when the federal gov is getting support from the UAE.

[@msraq]

The terrorist "TDF" is out of Dessie and Kombolcha

[@joninator7858]

@@BristolBerg There is no way they are getting back to where they once where. The TPLF is hated in the Amhara region and the afar region which are the regions they invaded. Guerilla warfare only works if the population in the area you wage war support you. They only have support in TIgray.

[@rootin222]

@@BristolBerg They bought drones most of which they’re already operating not to mention drones from China also if you look at the evidence of military equipment like tanks or artillery pieces that have been destroyed most of the angles of those destroyed equipment or horizontal not vertical meaning that you couldn’t even explain how a drunk destroy them in that fashion

[@thelegendlatera7707]

Don’t act like the TPLF is the only one that’s fighting Olf is fighting to

[@ameernuri3176]

This video aged like milk 🥛 on a hot summer day 🤣

[@toptobottom3168]

There is a significant update in the war, when are you going to cover about that?

[@CaptainKitfo]

came back 2 weeks later for the roast ☕

[@nonyabiz6036]

Looks like the fall of Afghanistan but more "prolonged" but hopefully Ethiopia doesn't end up like Afghanistan

[@mattstealnova3849]

lmao afghanistan didn’t even go hot with any fighting. When the ethiopian capital goes down, it’s gonna be mass bloodshed and war, constant terror, mass rapes and brutality, and revenge.

[@tomaszzalewski4541]

That's more close to Yugoslavia than Afg

[@Xenomorph-hb4zf]

@@mattstealnova3849 Ethiopian capital didn't go down. Even in March 2022 It's still in government control.

[@Kwasimitsu]

Hmm, I have the feeling this video may have been made a few weeks ago, before Abiy Ahmed took the field, because this analysis is dated. Ethiopian forces have since recaptured multiple key towns from the rebels, and is now calling for the surrender of the TPLF forces. Tigrayan people are abandoning the TPLF and just recently marched in droves in the capital to declare for a united Ethiopia. Very little has been said about the outstanding intelligence work being carried out on behalf of the Ethiopian state. Chifra has returned to state control. It's not looking so good for the TPLF.

[@kingace6186]

Nice report as always Caspian Report. Where do you get your informative and detailed maps? They are never outdated. Especially this one.

[@ሕያው]

I hope this was sarcasm

[@abdudelil352]

To make matter clear.. the Tigrayan lawmakers were not ousted by the governtment. After PM Abiy came to power, he dissolved the old ruling party EPRDF (for so many obvious reasons) and invited all parties to join his new party i.e Prosperity party. The Tigrayan members of the parliament did not want to join his Prosperity party. With this, they could still have stayed in the parliament with no extra consequences but they did not want to see the power they had over 3 decades slipp out of their hands so they took almost every Tigrayans from the ENDF and their members from parliament and went to the north Tigray region in hope of creating their own soverign country. They even held their own regional elections whilst the central federal government told them not to do so. The war started when these Tigrayan lawmakers attacked the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) situated in the northern part of Amhara region. They massacred a whole army camp out of desperation and with this the war started. The rest is history. I urge anyone watching news about this war in particular to look for trusted sources and to not get their info from these random, outdated and propagandist western news and youtube channels. My respect for this channel after this video 📉📉

[@yonatangebreyesus1949]

Where do you get your Data?! This is a huge missinformation and Unethical reporting. You are miss informed or trying to missinform the World About Ethiopia and The Current situation in Ethiopia.

[@chuasmare22]

Zero chance of what you said happing 😂. It’s not as simple as you think . I say half of the information on this video is completely wrong.

[@AbuJarahTheSurgeon]

Caspian Report is usually pretty good but this was probably not their best video. They made little mention of the TPLF's role. The Tigray militias are 200+ miles away but there's a huge mountain range in between them and Addis. 0% The capital falls within days or weeks. The Ethiopian government have also bought Turkish drones which have proven to be very effective in Syria

[@helicalactual]

Thanks homie. I’m looking forward to that app!

[@peters972]

Ethiopia is an ancient and sovereign nation, and even mentioned in the Bible. So weird to hear the words "Is Ethiopia salvageable" as though it were a stock ticker.

[@peters972]

@Misericordia Acts 8:27-39 - And he arose and went: and, behold, a man of Ethiopia, an eunuch of great authority under Candace queen of the Ethiopians......

[@TD1021-]

Thanks again Shirvan and team. This isn't getting anywhere near the coverage it should be getting

[@fayzjibril8125]

But it need a depth .... Updates

[@sophoniasmessele]

It's all fake. Mr. Shirvan here has joined a long line of major media companies to reap fake news abt us...it's a shame

[@sophoniasmessele]

@Armchair Psycho hey dude, first off, @Mr. Meeçhum Benəm has given a reasonably good explanation with deep understanding compared to many ppl out there, I'll pass his personal insult against me as his lack of communication skills to talk about things. His explanation is flawless but for one thing. As I'm sure you can imagine, perspectives are a bit different from an outsiders and a person who's living through something. The root of the issue can basically be traced to when the communists were ousted in 1991. When the TPLF took over, they lacked popular support as ethnic based political parties were a new thing and people didn't care much. To help better administer the country for themselves, they implemented Zenawism(there's a Wikipedia page about it) which is an Ethiopian form of ethnic federalism and it worked like a charm. While economic growth was exponential, the political situation deteriorated as ethnic issues surfaced. For 27 years, corruption was rampant and they stole approximately 4% kf the country's gdp per year. They were(still are) a mostly tigrayan party but they never gave much to the tigray region and the tigray people as a whole. After they were toppled from the government in 2018 tho, they changed policy; they tried to change their fight for power into a fight of the people. These people who didn't help their own people when they had power suddenly used their people as victims on their fight for control. Most of us here don't like the government either, but it's the lesser evil for almost everyone. The suffering caused by the TPLF was too harsh on the common people and this government was competent before the war started. The sad thing is that their plan to use Tigrays ppl as victims to rally them has mostly worked. And the reason the TPLF has never pushed for full independence is because the history of the country revolves around the Amhara and Tigrays. Plus an independent tigray is an economical puddle....it'll never work and they know it. If you got more detailed questions, feel free to ask. Hope this was a good more local explanation

[@sophoniasmessele]

@Armchair Psycho hey man, to start off; yeah, the beauty and the curse of it is that the TPLFs play for power is now mixed with the plight of Tigrayans. An extremely smart move that has been exacerbated by the governments genocide. Let me explain the genocide part in an Ethiopians eyes. The first cases of genocide were initiated by TPLF militia on western tigray which has a large minority of other groups. When those events happened around July/August last year, no one really understood what exacerbated it besides the decades long brewing friction...when the war erupted in November, government forces at first took most of tigray very easily and what everyone was happy not gonna lie. And then as time went by, news started reaching us of atrocities being committed by Eritrean troops while government troops did nothing to defend them and other brutal news like that. That's when the government took a nose dive. It went from almost unitary support to none and jt contributed to why the army was demoralized until about a month ago. Mind you tho, when the TPLF started the genocide in before the war, it received almost no media coverage in the west and none of you probably heard abt it but after the government related killings ensued, the west jumped on them and things were real bad. The rebels got all the support in the wrld while the government lacked even local support. After a while tho, western media started spreading all kinds of fake news abt the country in general. That undid all the work they did tho because public support now favored the government because the tplf were suddenly shown as angels. That's why the past month has seen a reversal of fortunes in the war. The OLA is really nothing to best answer your question. While the Oromos account for a third of the population, their cultural prestige is very low compared to the amharas and tigrays and the OLF seeks to bring their dominance. The OLF is a small organization that wants to control the country and run it like the TPLF but this time with the T replaced by the O. It has as much support as an independent Galicia from Spain has support. The only reason they are in the spotlight is because government resources are concentrated on the north. National unity is at its highest in decades(thanks to western media, check out #Nomore movement). Very few people still like the government and its support mainly stems from the fact that almost everyone prefers it to the old regime

[@sophoniasmessele]

@Armchair Psycho we still don't know for sure why the genocide in tigray happened under the government. It's why no one likes it anymore and why the TPLF still has moral grounds to see out the war...sorry I can't answer that question, it's the darkest part of the war.

[@historicalethiovideos3333]

This video didn't age well 😂😂 How things turn around so fast! Today, Ethiopian govt. is near Mekelle once again.

[@ameliatorres6482]

This story is old now in 2022. The government with its air force & armed drones had an overwhelming advantage, thanks to the countries supplying these drones.

[@Jai_BharatMata]

_The Most Underrated Geopolotical Analysis Channel Ever..._ Deserves Many More Subs❣️❣️❣️❣️ Love from India🇮🇳🇮🇳

[@karakondzula1388]

Dude he has almost 1mil subs how is that underrated? :D

[@BoqPrecision]

Underrated? Do you know the meaning of the word, lol.

[@Jai_BharatMata]

@@karakondzula1388 Yes...1 Mil is underRated... Dude here in India...Non Sense channels have 10 mil plus subs...So yea...I know what i Am Saying

[@kylemccormack1785]

@@BoqPrecision I mean, he's only got 1 million. That's a lot but there are billions watching KZbin now.

[@Jai_BharatMata]

@@BoqPrecision Ohh Sure i Do...Do you want me tag along Clickbait defense channels based in US,EU and Asia that are "overrated"?😂

[@samatar1025]

Video needs an update: Ethiopian govt seems to have the upperhand after receiving drones allegedly from China and Iran and perhaps Turkey. This past week many things have changed since Prime Minister Abiyu temporarily handed the Primiership to his deputy to fully concentrate on the war. Even Togray Defense Forces are considering changing their strategy after the losses they suffered in Afar Region and some areas in Amhara Region.

[@toobalkain]

hard to say, drones have a range, they're launching them from the airport south of Addis, they didn't use them against retreating TDF forces. In all likelihood the war is far from over and "best" case scenario China and Turkey's help balanced the two powers and there will be a protracted war.

[@ImperialMJG]

He should stop posting videos with how it ends before it has ended. Just shows caspian Report have his own agenda.

[@toobalkain]

@@ImperialMJG what is it with Ethiopians lately, you guys think everyone's a TDF shill or secret spy, Western governments, international media, NGOs, even the UN, it's crazy. Caspian doesn't have an agenda, he just finished the video before the information on TDF withdrawing got out. Wars are fluid, what was he supposed to do, wait until the war is over before making a video? We don't even know if TDF was kicked out of Dessie or it was a strategic retreat.

[@ImperialMJG]

@@toobalkain I dont know whats with Ethiopians, but probably looking for the same as me... Truth. Iam NORWEGIAN 🇧🇻. And I am for truth and facts in this world. I was Just saying this Shouldnt have been posted. Cause the situation have changed. You Cant post a video about "defeated" before it happens. And that Just backfired on Him.

[@toobalkain]

@@ImperialMJG A Norwegian interested in the nuances of the Ethiopian civil war? That must be a first. I have personal experience with the civil wars in Yugoslavia, many parallels with Ethiopia, and I've been a bit of a civil war nerd since, what's your excuse? You do have a point, Caspian probably could have chosen a more suitable title given the latest developments but on the other hand it's not entirely inaccurate, TDF did turn the war around and did defeat the ENDF in the Weldiya, Dessie, Kombolcha etc. Turned out it wasn't enough to end the war but it was a defeat, no denying that, and by the looks of it ENDF was toast, it was only by the grace of China and Turkey via UAE that the tide was turned, amazing how effective UAVs have gotten, there's no defence against them, in Nagorno Karabakh Azeris were spanking Armenia like a redheaded stepchild, it was a complete capitulation. Tigrayans sound like good soldiers but I don't think they can effectively counter drones.

[@soapmanwun6419]

always enjoy your uploads. ♥️

[@yonatantr6260]

I wonder what your next video on Ethiopia would be. Particularly in this piece, you lacked accuracy and objectivity.

[@khaccanhle1930]

You can't have a centralized government with an ethically or culturally diverse people. Such a political entity needs to have a fair amount of federation and local control over domestic policies.

[@tomaszzalewski4541]

Laughs in Yugoslavian

[@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns]

My thoughts exactly. But it becomes a real problem when one of those minority ethnicity based regions find oil or some other resource that makes them rich.

[@utkarshchoudhary3870]

@@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns Nowadays I wonder if oil was ever a good thing. In my opinion it was a resources that was cursed from the start.

[@neongenesis8499]

What about Ghana, Kenya, Surinam? We don't live in the age of nationalisation any more. The only reason that it's hard nowadays is because there is always countries and companies with little morals who profit from instability.

[@abdiabdi3225]

@@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns we already have an answer for that and what happened was in the eastern region of ogaden gas was discovered what happened was the central government stole it and left the region crippled and broken essentially making it a puppet of the central government.

[@melakumoges3393]

Dear Sir, It is Emperor Minilik who Defeated Italians in a town called Adwa-located in Tigray. But General Alula was one of the emperor Miniliks General who played a big role in that war. please correct

[@Freddy-ih4xo]

Lies… menilik had nothing to do with the victory in adwa

[@abyssiniaethiopia7667]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/oJ-pm5xspJ5qa9U

[@user-qy6tu9ip9v]

​@@Freddy-ih4xoYeah you're delusional

[@Freddy-ih4xo]

@@user-qy6tu9ip9v I’m right… and I’m right because the Italians wrote that menilik never showed up to that battle and that they lost to the tigrayans… read a book buddy

[@theone4821]

This channel spoke more truth to me than CNN, BBC and Aljazeera combined. It is SO neutral, keep up the good work.

[@ሕያው]

He is literally repeating what all those other media agencies are saying

[@altrag]

Its always fascinating how many people in the KZbin comments section don't understand how time works. "You're completely full of it because things changed yesterday! Why didn't you just blink and have the video instantaneously revised!?" Seriously though, they'd lose probably 2-3 weeks worth of work if they just ditched a video every time something changed faster than they could produce. Could _you_ survive for 3 weeks without any income? Far better to post an outdated video than no video. (Note: That only applies to things that _changed._ Being incorrect at the actual time of writing/production is still not excused.)

[@jaideepshekhar4621]

I think everyone realises that.

[@user-qy6tu9ip9v]

Nah he made many incorrect claims in the video that had nothing to do with the war that could have easily been fact checked.

[@lincselo]

Prime minister Abiy be like: "Hold my Noble peace prize, I'm going to war!"

[@Xenomorph-hb4zf]

He most likely doesn't give a shit about the Nobel peace prize. Why do people keep mentioning it? It doesn't even mean anything.

[@danielh.1266]

The military leader who leads the Ethiopian army during Ethiopia- Italian war 124 years ago was king MINELK and he is Amahara not from Tigre, again not from TIgray .

[@obolessaadola2755]

Hey, as a long time fan, your timing fails so bad, your content is very inaccurate, missinforming and misleading. Atleast you didn't specify your information time, and Note that war evolves so quick that it is very dificult and dicieving to do a generalised content like this. But hey shivron, we Ethiopians are saying #Nomore if you can do something about it.

[@AL-eq3hm]

Channel name may as well be TMH 2.0

[@mekuriatafesse4097]

Your information is one sided - the rebels side, contrary to your claim of being objective. Your assessment of the start of the current conflict is totally wrong. Federal forces were unwillingly pulled into conflict after peaceful means failed. Your article totally misinterpreted Abiy's policy as if promoting Amhara hegemony. The article has all ingridients of being prepared by a TPLF operative. Anyway, listen to the current news about the turn- around of events.

[@aronnegusse6972]

I think you are missing the latest news in th last week or 2 the Ethiopian arrmy has pushed back hard and reclaimed several strategic cities and encircled a large part of the Tigray forces, even the tigray spokesmann and leader have both publicly said that they are retreating and reorganizing a politicans way of saying we have been beaten). anyway the tides have shifted tremendously in favour of the Ethiopian states so your video being released today is kind of misinforming

[@younggunz07]

It is not verifiable at all. Remember, this same government had already claimed they’ve won 3 months back while thousands of their federal troops surrendered.

[@joninator7858]

@QuantLegend Difference is that the Ethiopian government has a manpower pool and funds that the TPLF can ever dream of. The ENDF will win this war one way or another.

[@DanielSofa]

As someone who lives in Addis Ababa I will tell that the information that you get from the west is totally wrong, in reality they never got close to Addis Ababa, infact you are probably safer than expected in Addis Ababa.

[@Shadowgunner785]

I'm honestly wondering if Egypt is helping to fuel any of the unrest currently in Ethiopia, this might seem farfetched but is there any way they could be sending support to the Tigrayan or Oromo Rebels?

[@haezlitt]

Tigrayans will take whatever support they can get, but forget about them dismantling the dam because the dam was commissioned when they were in power. The dam is one of few things that unify all Ethiopians.

[@fleshreap]

Could definitely see them pushing buttons in the background trying to generate more unrest.

[@joninator7858]

There is zero evidence of Egyptian involment in the war.

[@fleshreap]

@@joninator7858 yup

[@theelectricprince8231]

@@haezlitt Exactly, if Egypt interferes, it will backfire.

[@eriksxo]

Ethiopians are mad that tigray is winning 😂😂❤️💛

[@melkamargaw2970]

I used to respect Caspian Report, I say half of the information on this video is completely wrong. you lost my subscription , few of your lies to mention - The TPLF started the conflict by attacking a federal military base.(this is verified by UN ) - Adwa was won with 3 Amhara generals & our brother Alula. alula was general (ras) but not the only one, also he was not the leader of the army the army was lead by menilik II - you mentioned PM Abiy would like to establish centrally controlled govt which is absolutely wrong analysis - The Ethiopian forces are beating back the TPLF back to Tigray as of beginning of December . - The OLA is not a serious threat to the central government .Check your facts #nomore #nomoreTPLF

[@AL-eq3hm]

Thank you man. Almost looks like this guy made this video after calling Getachew Reda. Talking about shit they don't understand. Can you imagine we were watching this channel thinking they were right about their reports. Who knows what false info we were getting. Unsubscribe indeed.