Chance, luck, and ignorance: how to put our uncertainty into numbers - David Spiegelhalter

[@richardfield6801]

This was so gratifying. I learned the rules for calculating probabilities mechanically in secondary school because I was sitting for a maths exam, but I always felt uncomfortable about them and could never quite accept their reality. Now, 55 years later, for the first time I hear a statistician underlining my doubts and telling me that many of us find it unintuitive and difficult. It's not just me then. Yay!

[@ScienceAppliedForGood]

It was a very entertaining talk about chance and probability.

[@ke1007]

Both interesting and accessible, this put me in mind of my own 'remarkable coincidence'. In 2008 my dad died at the age of 86, and for the last week of his life he was on a palliative care ward. The man occupying the next bed was born on the same day (ie same day, same month, same year), we know this because the nurses queried it, fearing that there had been an admin error. Both men also died on the same day. We all commented at the time "what are the odds?", but many times since I've wanted to answer the question properly, to put a figure on it. Can anyone shed any light on this? I also wonder if their proximity at the time of death is relevant to the probability, or simply the circumstance which allowed us to know of their shared birth and death dates. If they had been born in the same village (they hadn't), would this make it even more improbable? Any views?

[@Brockles2115]

This guy was on Total Wipeout ❤️❤️

[@peterwusc]

Looking at the mug I am "almost certain" that MI5 agents are required to stay silent when the % falls in the gaps...

[@Pedritox0953]

Great video! Peace out

[@richarddavis2605]

Thanks, I want to learn more!

[@StephenLawrence-re8ub]

I think probability is objective because we can test it and see with enough repeat experiments. Probability relates to what would happen if we did such a test. Sports men and women and commentators know this, they talk in terms of how many times they would make that shot out of 10.

[@CedricLatessa]

I know what I want for Xmas 📖

[@real_pattern]

certainly not...

[@liam_dublin101]

Very enjoyable 😀👏

[@dschai0220]

The relationship between the perfect numbers and mersenne numbers. 6 / 2^1 (2) = 3 28 / 2^2 (4) = 7 496 / 2^4 (16)= 31 8128 / 2^6 (64)= 127 33,550,336 / 2^12 (64 * 64) = 8191 8,589,869,056 / 2^16 (64 * 64 * 16) = 131,071 137,438,691,328 / 2^18 (64 * 64 * 64) = 524,287 ...

[@ianbromelow5640]

I once actually got 6 double-yolkers from a standard box of six eggs, not very long ago!

[@connectmetohacker4263]

That's nice that everything is matching like miracle. Maths predict the miracles

[@mariamanos5461]

Why the chance if getting heads 3 times in a row is 1/8 but 3 children to be born same date in a row is not 1/365 to the 3rd power

[@gitgudnga]

because u havent asked the same question there are 365 days so the chance all 3 are born on jan 1st is 1/365^3 the same with jan 2nd and jan 3rd ….. 365 times so u add all the probabilities for each day to get 365*1/365^3 = 1/365^2

[@brunocombelles59]

Because in one case the expected result is specific (head) whereas in the second case, the day of birth is not relevant (i.e. the birth of first child does not play any part in getting a positive outcome or not, whereas the first throw, if it's tail, will fail the whole attempt) The chances of three coins flips getting the same result (irrespective of which) is 1/4. The chances of 3 children of being born on a specific day is 1/365 to the power of 3.

[@aristotledixit]

Probability does not exist, except for Russian roulette.