Know your trading edge-survive the game · Blair Hull interview

[@ShaolinRopeDart]

@Aaron, love the channel. Suggestion for you. It would be great if you organized these interviews into topical play lists, not just but order grouping. Examples: day trading | options trading | betting strategies | method/edge | long term trading | etc. These interviews often create questions in specific areas, so it'd be great to be able to follow the curiosity flow by topic. It'll also lead listeners down the rabbit hole for hours!

[@thrillamoe50]

Great interview, Mr. Blair Hull & Haim Bodek are the truth!

[@hamisintunzwenimana8083]

Great General 1. Systems Thinking / Strategy - Models 2. Record Keeping / Plan - Position sizing / Statistics

[@lilboer5340]

What Blair said about great power coming with teams rather not individuals is something i also truly believe in.. with so many minds just motivated and striving for the same goals..

[@markbaugh6083]

I love the Hull Moving Average (HMA) to determine trade entries and exits designed by Blair Hull. It is the ONLY intra-day moving average I will use!

[@Ramesh151]

which period of hull ma iis best to use? 20 or 50? please say

[@siza6993]

HMA was designed by the Australian mathematician/trader Alan Hull.

[@goodoboyde]

Great interview Aaron. Really appreciate your hard work and effort.

[@user-dd5kx5md5o]

Just found this channel, loads of great content. My observation is Blair found his edge and it is taking fees, not performance. Had a look at his ETF, the return is

[@Hugo-xj2mj]

the return is

[@chrisgouger9299]

@@Hugo-xj2mj the return is

[@willl7134]

…And the return is…

[@user-dd5kx5md5o]

Farking zero!

[@_N0_0ne]

Thank you kindly ✍️

[@moisestoro4499]

Thanks @Aaron, great work!!

[@erfho8y]

does anybody happen to knoow the name of the intro/outro song??

[@AdityaEnergySolutions]

22:40 Real Talk

[@lastnamefirst650]

While the title excites me the content was disappointing. ‘So how does one develop their edge?’ *Proceeds to say ‘don’t trade if you don’t have an edge’. Provides no clear insight on how to develop one and whether or not you know you have a solid edge without months and potentially tons of capital of testing to prove it. Shames traders who don’t use programming, in which scripts always show you need human interaction with the market (even if the bot makes money you still need to constantly check it). I’m all for finding an edge however you can but there’s plenty of 6 figure traders out there who don’t even know HTML isn’t a programming language. There’s many who outshine this guy and they will never learn programming. Since I don’t want to post a useless comment, please correct me if my edge finding theory is wrong: I feel you need to look at what rules you feel comfortable following. Why are you using those indicators? Are they simple or complex? Do you understand what the indicator is showing you? Do you understand what metric the indicator monitors? Do you have multiples of that metric? Meaning do you have several volume indicators but no volatility or momentum indicators? How quickly can you screen your chart data? Is there a way to streamline it? Once you have your indicators, then it becomes practice of how well you can stick to those rules. If a month goes by and you are honestly following the rules (using a journal for confirmation) but are still losing then it’s not an edge and you need to fix something. If it is winning then you do have an edge, or you need to test it for a bit longer if it’s unclear. Adaptability and discipline are critical as the market constantly changes.

[@stevearmstrong7023]

Yes definitely all about the indicators

[@wolfbloodost9970]

Well that doesn’t sound like an actual process to get an edge either. I’m a 19 year old trader and here’s my approach. We have to start by understanding that an edge is a statistical probability of one outcome happening over the other. Not on a trade by trade basis but over a large sample size of trades. The key words here are statistical and probability. A lot of the market price action is random. This doesn’t work very well with our mind as we come into the market with cognitive biases and our neons tends to see patterns where they aren’t. A lot of these patterns are random and have no statistical backing. The other problem with them is that they are often not quantifiable which makes trading them subjective and thus unreliable. What we need to do is first identify a statistical occurrence in the market over a large sample size of data. And use that as our edge. How to do this? I really like the way quants approach this. They conduct research on a pair or security to find inefficiencies and abnormal returns. If you look up SSRN. They have a bunch of research papers by academics that present hypotheses about market data based on statistical tests. They’ll ask questions like : Does the London session tend to provide abnormal returns in a certain pair if (input) happens etc etc When you dive into these papers you can infer trading ideas that put you on the right statistical side of the market. Then what we can do is create theories and backtest them. If you do this you’ll usually find some of the ideas have an edge. No subjectivity, no hoping or praying. Just pure objective research and testing.

[@wolfbloodost9970]

Well that doesn’t sound like an actual full process to get an edge either only because I think you need to have a reason why you think something will work before you test it. I’m a 19 year old trader and here’s my approach. We have to start by understanding that an edge is a statistical probability of one outcome happening over the other. Not on a trade by trade basis but over a large sample size of trades. The key words here are statistical and probability. A lot of the market price action is random. This doesn’t work very well with our mind as we come into the market with cognitive biases and our neons tends to see patterns where they aren’t. A lot of these patterns are random and have no statistical backing. The other problem with them is that they are often not quantifiable which makes trading them subjective and thus unreliable. What we need to do is first identify a statistical occurrence in the market over a large sample size of data. And use that as our edge. How to do this? I really like the way quants approach this. They conduct research on a pair or security to find inefficiencies and abnormal returns. If you look up SSRN. They have a bunch of research papers by academics that present hypotheses about market data based on statistical tests. They’ll ask questions like : Does the London session tend to provide abnormal returns in a certain pair if (input) happens etc etc When you dive into these papers you can infer trading ideas that put you on the right statistical side of the market. Then what we can do is create theories and backtest them. If you do this you’ll usually find some of the ideas have an edge. No subjectivity, no hoping or praying. Just pure objective research and testing.

[@TrailBlazer5280]

I really appreciate Blair's perspective. I learned from blackjack basic money management and how to look at the big picture instead of any one particular trade outcome. There are so many things that are the same between gambling with an edge and investing or trading its cool to hear from someone who did it successfully.

[@omarfishir8960]

Aaron, You ask the best questions!

[@tyler80239]

na dis niqqa asks the WORST questions

[@canadianrepublican1185]

another great interview!

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+CanadianRepublican, thanks dude.

[@alfin3644]

Amazing episode

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+Al Fin, thanks very much.

[@tkdblkbelt5483]

Good stuff

[@paulojustinianookubo]

!! As all always Aaron doing a great job !! I really like everything he said, however his advice to new traders is really absurd and makes no sense. He said go to school for 6+ years study hardcore and become a programmer ? Well that is not trading and has nothing to do with learning how to trade. If that was the case than many of this new programmers would be making billions of dollars. Learning to trade has nothing to do with learning how to program an strategy. In fact most of the programmer that code and write strategies are not traders. They are guided and told what to do by the traders.

[@jeffshackleford3152]

he is looking at the big picture

[@paultudor3573]

Totally agree Paulo

[@hansn.433]

Very interesting interview and great sounding insights. Sadly in reality he (at least his etf) too failed to beat the market quite badly.

[@tyler80239]

its got fukken shet performance m8

[@marcgerges1380]

excellent!

[@JayanthUkwaththa]

Thank you

[@TheArtofTateism]

I believe that as long discretionary traders exist, we can still make money in the markets in the long run. Unless automation becomes the 100 percent player and tradeing will be ☠️ dead then

[@wn77wn]

Grate job man keep it up although today's guest level is way way more than my level it was difficult to understand most of the stuff :)

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+wn77wn, thanks heaps for listening.

[@calabaza1702]

So if your taking both sides of the trade, your a market maker, right because how would you make money that way?

[@dimitriosdesmos4699]

calabaza 15 you buy at 100 and sell at 100.1 or sell at 100.1 and buy back at 100 for 0.1 $ profit 1 trillion times a day

[@malthus101]

the spread

[@beamerUSA]

32:51 Oh I agree here....its possible.

[@dominic2446]

10:00 blackjack team got barred? sounds like the movie 21.

[@AhmedAbdelsalam-w8k]

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[@reversemoustachecat8127]

So to me this guy is not a trader. Founding a market maker company is akin to cheating. He took advantage of seeing everyone's orders basically. Also now he runs a fund which makes money on capital & performance fees. He is part of the machine. A variable-salaried employee that gets his money from clients

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+reverse moustache cat, strange way of looking at it...

[@reversemoustachecat8127]

It comes with experience after dealing with all the wannabees and charlatans in this business.

[@JCElzinga]

he didnt say anything about programming degree... just competincy. programming aint that hard...

[@JCElzinga]

programming isnt as hard as everyone thinks it is anyway.

[@JCElzinga]

infiltr80r ill grant you that. im a software dev so it seems easy for me... but for someone great at math, calculus is easy. so I might be very wrong on how easy it is.

[@beamerUSA]

45:00 Programming is for NERDS not daytraders. Programming has nothing to do with trading. In fact it will steal brain resources if a person is expert in something else. Trading is easy and just has to identify the manipulations of Market makers. You don't need any special training to trading.

[@lalotz]

Are you a millionaire yet?

[@gaz11zag26]

11:00

[@joec7070]

Has anyone been using technician? I've dont get real time data for nyse and nasdaq, they're all 15m delayed. Is this happening to you too Aaron?

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+Joey Cognata, I'd suggest tweeting the guys at Technician to ask about this: twitter.com/TechnicianApp

[@malthus101]

Joe, that was just an advertisement to pay for the show - you're not supposed to actually take the bait and buy the product lol!

[@RodolfoRodarte]

Python and R. Very cool. In case you don't know what R is: www.r-project.org/about.html

[@ChatWithTradersPodcast]

+Rodolfo "Rudy" Rodarte, you might be interested in the previous episode with Dr. Yves Hilpisch too. He's a quant and the author of Python For Finance: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bXSyg2abh6droqc

[@mojabaza1]

So you have to be top educated and then get a job because you can’t make money on your own.?Got it. Just trade small forever, then use it as playbook for bigger trades.

[@ronschmick3356]

Glorified latency arbitrage. They drop a lot of money to be collocated. I was expected much more from Hull, very disappointed, Jim Simmons and Renaissance Technologies are much more interesting

[@someonenamevalencia7527]

Has anyone won at penny stock what I mean stocks under 3 bucks :/

[@levansegnaro4637]

has anyone won the lottery? yeah, but its statistically unlikely, best of luck m8

[@malthus101]

Tim Sykes, Mark Crook, Tim Gritanni, Nate Michaud, Steven Dux

[@paultudor3573]

Not a great one

[@ronschmick3356]

Paul Tudor - agreed! Very disappointed with Blair Hull interview, he rubbed me the wrong way .

[@carlamendes6841]

The zealous condor literally wave because competition arespectively develop into a deep heart. halting, steadfast bull

[@andym5663]

Terrible bore, never specific in his answering.

[@tyler80239]

wut kinda fukken mikey mouse shet is this

[@Boxedwaffle]

lol, this guy talking about timing the market. go look at his fund.

[@AhmedAbdelsalam-w8k]

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