China's Corruption Scandal: Is War with Taiwan Now Less Likely? (ft. the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy)

[@Gametheory101]

15:46 The phone call in question was on December 2, 2016, not the date shown. Trump had won the 2016 election but was not yet president at the time that it occurred.

[@Osprey5435]

that makes more sence

[@terrysullivan1992]

He did say "president elect" though.

[@rogerpennel1798]

Stalin's Purges didn't help him in Finland.

[@Tormentality]

@@rogerpennel1798 Neither did Holodomor

[@Toddnesbitt]

Huh??

[@anoldlady8]

I love the Perun reference

[@ivanm.krsticevic1535]

"... Or football, upside down." 😅 2x Australian mentions in 1 article.

[@IconoclastX]

They are basically the same person

[@u2beuser714]

Emutopia kiwiland

[@noneofyourbusiness4133]

@@u2beuser714thank you I love them ^u^

[@inadaizz]

Dude I confuse the two more than I care to admit when they're just playing in the background.

[@geodkyt]

"War is a democracy - the enemy gets a vote." Applies to pretty much all human conflicts, even non-kinetic ones.

[@zzentaq9563]

i would love it if you elaborate on this

[@denis2381]

Taiwan is undeniably a province of China 🇨🇳

[@hitmusicworldwide]

​​@@denis2381well I'm denying the "undeniably" Taiwan has only been under forced Han Chinese rule since the nationalist ROC invasion. The CCP has no claim here.

[@acanadianderg4035]

@@denis2381 When pigs fly

[@denis2381]

@@acanadianderg4035 when spotted, that's an indicator that americans are invading a country

[@haldon12]

I really appreciate any new commentator who has the courage to say "there's really no way to know" about geopolitics. Kudos for breaking everything down in a digestible way. Like everything in game theory, there really is no way to know what people with imperfect intelligence are going to do, and we need to accept that as we try to build the best future we can.

[@Yora21]

"The events that will occur in the following days will be critical in determining what happens after them."

[@Tormentality]

The study of Psychology shows people act in predictable patterns.

[@SkyWolfPirate]

@@Tormentalityit also shows people behave in unpredictable ways also… it usually depends on the amount of data you have on someone or something

[@dereknewbury163]

Even people with perfect intelligence can be unpredictable: the variables are just so many. Xi has built a massive base of expectation among the Chinese people and this will carry its own momentum. Personally I find it obscene that people like Bush, Putin and Xi, on the basis of imperfect historical analysis can decide they have the right to order thousands of young people to their deaths in order to impose their wills

[@NazRessas]

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[@user-85903z]

Thank you for covering the China - Taiwan issue! I've been wondering when we'd get to this. All kinds of lines on maps!

[@USAMAXI42069]

nothing burger conversation. china will NEVER invade taiwan. so its pointless to speculate

[@rolfauner4623]

I was wondering why you didn't point out the flaw in the logic when the news first came out. Now with this new information, I can redraw the line on my mental map.

[@Gametheory101]

I actually recorded this a month ago. The (more pressing) news elsewhere has been moving fast enough that I kept pushing the release date back.

[@statostheman]

As a Karelian descended where our home was very close to the Soviet Union border during the WW2, Stalin also purged his officers before he went to war. I think it’s MORE likely that China will invade, due to the fact that their regime is "wobbling".

[@AaronSoul725]

Agreed it's much more likely for an invasion when the regime is becoming unstable and you need a scapegoat or distraction

[@SmileyEmoji42]

The regime's security is based more on prosperity. War would make China MUCH poorer. No amount of nationalistic fervour would counter that.

[@statostheman]

So was the Soviet Union and look what it happened.

[@CraigTheScotsman]

I’d agree with your analysis. ‘To a people warlike and indignant, an incursion into a rich country is never hurtful.’ - Dr. Samuel Johnston War is good for business and for politics, and we see how domestic insecurity leads to external war time and again as a dynamic deflection. I emphasised the wavering domestic and political security of the US in the early 19th century when I used to lecture on their declaration of war against Britain in the Napoleonic period.

[@stunningandbased5516]

​​@@SmileyEmoji42This is autocracy 101, "quick and succesful" invasion of your neighbor to distract from domestic issues is a certified classic. Sure it's contradictory at face value, but so is man.

[@advancetotabletop5328]

0:28 : As WS said in an earlier video, it’s unlikely that the Chinese missiles were literally filled with water. Bloomberg more likely misinterpreted the Chinese idiom (which we have a as well) that “watered down” means inferior goods, not necessarily water per se. FYI, In Russia’s attack on Kiev, many of the heavy armored vehicles were unable to continue moving because the corrupt Russian officers bought “Made in China” tires that were unable to hold the weight under actual use. Needless to say, these tires were not filled with water. Thanks for the video!

[@Lulu-yg8dq]

If you track where those tire claims came from. It was from a twitter user who deleted their claims within 1 day of posting it because people found out the tires were actually Belarusian by comparing tire images. But the story lives on. Very relevant to how people believe things that sound right.

[@arthurmoore9488]

That's the bueaty of this piece. It works regardless of the hyperbole, and is relevant beyond the current situation. The problem is explaining it doesn't really fit in a 2 minute time slot, and saying "it's complicated" also doesn't work for the news.

[@alexrator7674]

Correct

[@jasonli5921]

the fact that searching up emutopia leads to perun is wild

[@BoxStudioExecutive]

Where else would it lead?

[@rchergarrett]

"Imagine Lloyd Austin just stopped working." LOL

[@dogcarman]

Maybe just turning him off and on again will fix the issue. It usually does, look how China got their foreign minister back online.

[@StabbinJoeScarborough]

Yeah , just imagine !

[@CAPSLOCKPUNDIT]

Or if he waited for a distraction to launch a special operation.

[@hughmungus2760]

Didn't he literally go MIA for a week because of personal medical issues and Nobody in the whitehouse knew where he was? If any of us did that at our jobs we'd probably be fired.

[@donharrus9994]

Ha

[@Count_Smackula]

Could we get lines on maps in PowerPoint?

[@gideonmele1556]

I’m not sure we could handle it

[@MorbidEel]

Lines on powerpoint

[@jayhill2193]

That would warrant a rebrand to PowerLines, I feel like.

[@YarPirates-vy7iv]

​@@jayhill2193nice wordplay

[@justinsbeaver9010]

William Sperun! The greatest crossover on the KZbin!

[@JoshWalker1]

Lol. "Rather, war is like basketball. Or, baseball. Or, cricket. Or, football. Or, football (with freedom). Or, football (but upside-down)" 12:37

[@colinadevivero]

William, please keep up your excellent work and never stop taking advantage of perfectly unwarranted opportunities for introducing “Lines on maps”, I howl in laughter when you do.

[@JosephHoggang-bk4bk]

They only way to avoid war is to show military strenght and be well prepared for war.

[@TheAmazingCowpig]

Good thing I already spent that hour in Emutopia immediately prior to this getting posted, I guess.

[@nataliiateteruk585]

Perun will agree.

[@gideonmele1556]

Oh my giddy aunt, lines on maps AND Perun powerpoint references? You spoil us

[@marcel84marcel]

Lines on basketball courts 🤔 I LOVE IT 🤩😂

[@Barwasser]

There are many lines on the court - just saying

[@kallebengtzon5240]

The water in the tanks can be normal and not related to cortuption. Liquid fuel rockets have a problem that the fuel and oxidiser have a combination of a few of these atributes. Toxic, corrosive, cryogenic on top of flamable. Also the rockets are flimsy to be light. The tanks must contain something for added strenght, think an empty beercan compared with a full one. The water could be there to safely store the rockets. And when they prepare to launch it is removed and replaced by fuel and oxidiser.

[@Osprey5435]

I thought I heard some where that they were in the ground based tanks

[@maxpower3990]

It could also be a mistranslation. Perun did a great analysis where he stated that the phrase “filled with water” may be slang for general corruption rather than actually filled with water.

[@edwinhuang9244]

@@maxpower3990 I mean, the phrase for unauthorized goods is "水货". 水 means water. So it very well could be a mistranslation.

[@elyolson3726]

Love the hack-a-Shaq metaphor

[@VicAusTaxiTruckie]

I'm just here to like the Shaq comment 😊

[@Bluecedor]

@@VicAusTaxiTruckieLOL Me too

[@SeruraRenge11]

"he has one crippling weakness: free throws" So you're saying you signed Shaq

[@bugtank]

I love the summaries before you get into the talk. This particular summary was a perfect one. Thanks william!

[@lisaheartfelia8133]

Intelligent move to only recommend the book that has relevance to the topic in the video instead of also recommending the other, less relevant book. It makes the advertisement more sincere.

[@UGNAvalon]

He also avoids bringing up the Ukraine books entirely when discussing Gaza.

[@UniquelyUnseen]

I studied political science, with a focus on corruption. This channel REALLY makes me regret not researching arms deals and the math of war. This is genuinely interesting stuff.. and I bet the DC blob would pay handsomely :D

[@Anton-tf9iw]

Xi Jinping uses the label "corruption" a lot for removing rival CCP factions from power positions.

[@PompousDingo]

The lines on the island helped me visualize the lines on maps in my mind very well

[@MrDazTroyer]

Phew.... I thought for a minute there would be no lines on maps.

[@HeyItIsMichal]

Yes, it would be the end of the world.

[@davidmedlin8562]

Low key using Shaq as your basketball example..... love it!

[@colinboynton192]

I thought it was a reference to Antetokounmpo before hack-a-Shaq was brought up.

[@johnsullivan6843]

Ah ha, our political scientist host also has some sports knowledge/fandom in his hip pocket... kind of like Richard Nixon 😆. Ages ago when I was in junior high our class was given an assignment to write a persuasive essay, and my premise was: 'the Soviet Union would actually love U.S. football because the game has a physical-battle-for-land-acquisition metaphor that would resonate for them.' If only I had known at the time to call it "Freedom Football"!

[@philipvlnst]

Interesting presentation, but I will have to watch it several times to fully understand it.

[@معاذالسعداوي-ك4ث]

take notes

[@420MilkMan]

I tip my hat to you, that basketball analogy finally helped me grasp the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy

[@kurtwinslow2670]

Taiwan needs to cut through the BS of ambiguity, which could lead to a war. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) worked to keep the former Soviet Union and the USA at bay from each other and put a stop to either party waging war. MAD can do the same in the Taiwan strait too. Even Pakistan and India who are bitter rivals hold back from any major conflict, due to nukes. Nukes are a deterrent to major conflict and if conflict does occurs, it's metered.

[@frankgulla2335]

Thank you for your in-depth analysis of the PRC-Taiwan situation.

[@fredericrike5974]

Great presentation. Really makes for appreciating the Vindman bros as NSA liaisons at the White House and why the integrity of such men is so important.

[@craigrussell7542]

Great piece. A good illustration of the serious dangers of secret alliances or secret promises/guarantees to allies ala WW1. If your advesary doesn't know the actual nature of your position they can badly misjudge the location of the red line.

[@bierbrauer11]

Dude, fantastic video and explanation while also weaving in immense amounts of humor! Love this channel!

[@GreatAffinityProductions]

Lol @ the use of "field goals" @ 12:07 when talking about basketball. Mostly because I haven't heard it often.

[@johnsullivan6843]

There are field goals in "freedom football" 🤣, but take a look at a basketball box score and see that shots are indeed called field goals, which are abbreviated to FGM (for shots made) and FGA (for shots attempted). Our narrator got it right!

[@allezeitderwelt]

Great insights as always ❤

[@jpa5038]

I think it's a combination of things that make China invading Taiwan less likely now than say a year ago. First and foremost on that list is China's economy is very vulnerable right now. Second is China sees exactly what is in store for it if they invade Taiwan. And what they're looking at is the state of Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Catastrophically unsustainable losses, economic/political isolation, instability on the home front as Russian GDP continues to shrink and the body count goes well beyond 400k dead Russians. China doesn't want to take Taiwan at all cost. That's Russia's MO in Ukraine. China wants a two week fight. To overwhelm Taiwan's defense in the first week, have Taiwan fully turned into a protectorate by week 2 and then be fully subsumed before the start of week 3. And at that point the US comes to the conclusion that it's fully a lost cause and any resistance we generate just ends immediately. Now I don't think any of this is a reasonable expectation for China even under the best of circumstances but there are certainly voices in the Chinese government that believe it will be easy. They're quieter now that China is struggling.

[@curlyjoh9055]

Is Taiwan a distraction? To invade Taiwan there is the problem of a maritime invasion. Such a venture would be Normandy on steroids. Siberia is another question. China doesn't say much about retaking Siberia but they have changed their maps. All the maritime problems involved with invading Taiwan disappear, a war of liberation against a demonstrably inept, corrupt and severely weakened Russian military might have some allure.

[@GeoScorpion]

Perun already did a full analysis of the water/rocket fuel issue and said the claim is irrelevant if not bogus.

[@stanleyh.904]

My cat loves your videos, the moving shadowed PNGs really do it for him

[@JamesHGroffSr]

It is amazing the way people are MADE to think

[@swisstroll3]

If something is “likely” or “unlikely”, that implies a probability. Let’s ignore the fractions, and give a probability of from 1 to 99 percent. If it is any value, an event can still happen or not happen. So “more likely” and “less likely” are just an opinion.

[@petrius658]

Very complex and convoluted video, but you explained it very well and I was able to digest the information, well done!

[@CAPSLOCKPUNDIT]

He used easily interpreted graphics, and wasn't Russian the pace. Otherwise, I could see how it would Taiwan in knots.

[@enzoh7763]

Complex and convoluted is correct , Add ,, incomplete and lacking spherical vision in discussion , all in good times , was good listening than listening to mother in law rantings.

[@embreis2257]

12:38 'war is like basketball or baseball or cricket or football or _football with freedom_ or football, but upside down.' LOL, *football with freedom* funny, I love it!

[@TheFireGiver]

"We are all high functioning adults here" press x to doubt

[@alexrator7674]

After looking at the replies in some comments I will certainly press X

[@JayRappa]

I love lines on maps!!!!!!!

[@oleopathic]

Excellent analysis. "The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy" is PS is interesting.

[@Billytomtom18]

Hello William, its Ironic how when I watched your possibly first video on Russian Corruption, I shared it comments calling you an Aussie Guy. Personally I I depend on Quality Tools and they don’t come from China. The thing that China makes the best is those little stickers, made in china 🛑 Then I instantly thought you were the channel of PERUN , sorry for the confusion 😮 Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦🚀🇺🇸🇺🇦💯 Glory To All The People Of Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@pimpampet7053]

Great video William. I love them.

[@tom_forsyth]

5:37: Wow that sounds serious. People extorting foreign countries in exchange for arms? Other people having scandalous extra-marital affairs? Yet others compromising national security? WEAK SAUCE. Here in the USA we only need ONE GUY to do all this, and more!

[@F34RZCH4N]

Plarf is a term i never knew i need in my life

[@ShaolinTech_]

13:33 I had to rewind the video because I was not expecting to see that reference on this channel. HOLLA.

[@thisherehandleIdospout]

19:27 Oh... oh, you are cute, William Spaniel. You are so cute 😂 Love your work - Keep it up, sir!

[@TH-nl5fw]

正義は勝つのか勝ったモノが正義か 天使も悪魔も紙一重 時代が違えば"殺しさえ讃えられて 哀しく一言誰かが言った 「神など存在しない...」 届かないなら祈りなどしない....ただ虚しく響くだけ この声が届いたとしても... くり返しの罪と罰 神よあなたが下した答えは...本当の正義とは何? 人は皆...儚くて弱く... ズルくあざとい... 生き物

[@stephenbone4764]

CHINA HAS UNAMBIGIOUSLY STATED IT WILL TAKE TAIWAN ! THE ONLY QUESTION IS , WHEN ?

[@DavidCooper-vh4nr]

They can try, but XJP won't enjoy the outcome.

[@DevinDTV]

The line analogy honestly made it a lot harder to understand what you were trying to say. It would have been more clear if you had forgone the lines entirely and simply made the arguments.

[@asan1050]

Thanks for posting this video.

[@BoomMC_Inc]

Love the perun reference

[@Alexandragon1]

Thx for the video!

[@glennchartrand5411]

It looks like Xi wanted an independent audit of the military in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan ....and the results were bad. One of the things discovered was that contractors were selling regular kerosene (about $2 per gallon) to the Rocket Force as rocket grade kerosene (about $100 per gallon) The reason rocket grade kerosene is so expensive is it is a very precise mix (Weight, composition , burn time , temperature) and has no water in it. Not only would burning regular kerosene cause a rocket to fail due to erratic combustion , but the water content has already damaged the fueling systems for the rockets. Then they discovered that 1 out of 3 silos were inoperable due to lack of proper maintenance. Example :Instead of fixing leaks in the silo hatches they were just spraying insulating foam into the hatch seals ...effectively gluing the hatch shut. (But it didn't leak anymore). In other words , their nuclear ballistic missile threat was only a small fraction of what they thought it was. Everywhere they looked they found stuff like this where the readiness of their forces were nowhere near what they thought they had. Critical supplies missing, training levels greatly exaggerated , non-functional equipment, etc. That's why we are seeing a purge , but this time we are seeing that some of the people being purged are Xi's own allies, normally it's just people in the opposing faction that get removed.

[@Flourishing_Everything]

😂😂😂😂你们这些白皮真有意思！

[@realtissaye]

source

[@RonJohn63]

My first (and continued) thought when hearing of the scandal is that 2030 is far enough away that they think they'll have the corruption problem resolved by then.

[@maxhugen]

1:38 There is a third option... *3) "Xi's China is **_more_** likely to engage in military action."* At 70 years old, possibly in poor health, with a failing economy and massive problems with construction, food security, potable water, etc... Xi could opt for a war to "unite" the Chinese people against some "enemy". This has happened around the world frequently, when a dictatorial leadership needs to tighten it's control of the populace, or is looking to secure a historical legacy before death. For example, Putin and his dream of a Third Russian Empire.

[@stenjogi6339]

13:45 I thought this was going to go on until the end of the video

[@denillefleming2942]

Excellent videos, thank you!

[@KUSHxKiNG]

12:02 fouls? Field goals?? Are we still comparing to basketball😂😂😂

[@kauffner]

This is a misreading of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. To understand Communist strategy, you don't turn to Clausewitz. Clausewitz taught that war is politics by other means. That is to say, if you can't control something by political means, you might try war. For Mao, war is the point. It's not a means of gaining territory or of achieving a strategic end. As George Orwell put it, "Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia." In the Communist mind, the war is not against Taiwan, it a war against the United States. The purpose of this war is provide an ideological underpinning for communist system.

[@jamesschoonmaker6097]

How could the Basket case Chinese economy. Handle anything right now. Let alone evading another country not going to happen

[@stevemawer848]

Putin might disagree.

[@skillganon606]

Wasn't expecting a Hack-a-Shaq reference.

[@BreakingBarriers2DIY]

LOL that “reaction to the reaction infinite regression did not regress to the infinite fast enough to prevent my wife’s frown of “what thevhell are you watching “. I wasn’t about to explain…she has gone back to her task. Lol

[@TwilightsSprite]

I just bought your book (Formal Models of Crisis Bargaining). Ugh... and here I thought I was done with grad school forever

[@Gametheory101]

Well that is quite the commitment you just made for yourself!

[@PhilipLeitch]

Emu is "eam-ew" not "eam-oo" (rhymes with few not boo). It's an Aboriginal word so it has a correct pronunciation. But great content.

[@SmileyEmoji42]

With respect to Taiwan, there is no equivalent step to Russia's annexation of Crimea to test the world reaction. The closest thing is harrassing shipping and claiming some islands that are irrelevant other than their claim on the sea around them.

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

The PRChinese did take Quemoy Island back in the 1950's but after that, nothing happens...

[@ovasquezg23]

​@theotherohlourdespadua1131 The ROC controls Kinmen today its not controlled by China

[@douglasbuchanan2973]

PREVENT WARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@Jimmy1349]

Doesn't close the door completely but it certainly narrows the window and the smaller the window is the better

[@oleapmann1422]

Absolut brilliant video again

[@Mightydoggo]

Corruption didn´t stop Russia from attacking. However, with a bit of luck, it might has the same effect on the Chinese as it had on the Russians.

[@FrozenSpector]

Very informative.

[@GDrake24]

Hi, thanks for the insightful analysis. I reluctantly admit that I fail to entirely grasp how the theoretical lines work. I have watched several other videos but it does not seem to help. Is there a particular video / text that would allow me to fully internalize how the system of arbitrarily drawing lines materializes the expectations of governments, and their willingness to act / not act on those expectations? I thank in advance anyone who responds to this comment.

[@Gametheory101]

Short of taking an actual class on the subject, this is the most thorough summary I have: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pnPahWBrr56Fa6M This is the class: kzbin.info/aero/PLKI1h_nAkaQrvKPtuPMXkU4yXCDSp_NHh

[@youssefsammouh501]

the lines on maps are just an attempt at representing in a single variable (area on the map) all the variables that have value in bargaining for the sides of a conflict. So we are collapsing all of these things that have value into 1 thing we can look at. For example russia's decision to invade ukraine takes into account many things that they value. They have gains in: the land itself, security risk from NATO, people in eastern ukraine, propaganda material, etc...; and they have losses in: soldier's lives, material costs of militarization, people's dissatisfaction, etc... In practice each of these variables can be given a numeric value (soldier's life = 100$, 1 mile of land = 200 $, so if we can gain 1 mile but we will lose 1 soldier, it is worth it). When all variables are measured in the same unit, you can simply add and subtract everything to see if you have net gain or loss. This unit can be $ or space on a map, or anything really. hope that helps

[@Joe--]

​@@Gametheory101 Thank you! 🙏 this helps a lot

[@GDrake24]

@@Gametheory101 Thank you :). I will take the class, as it seems very thorough, which I appreciate. Also, thank you for all the work you're doing; it is really helpful!

[@Lomiei]

Wow, Schwerpunkt is such a good KZbinr, that a military general made himself look exactly like the man's profile picture.

[@roberta8936]

MY HEAD HURTS 😅

[@michael9433]

"But we can handle a little abstraction" I NEED AN ADULT

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

The problem with this analysis is that it is built on two premises that don't have to be true: 1. Starting a war is a rational decision. 2. China's incentive to start the war is based on Taiwan's behaviour. The decision to start a war can be dependent on internal Chinese factors and the personal ambitions of president Xi. Xi might time the invasion not based on Taiwanese behaviour but based on his perception that it is the right time for China or the right time for him personally. It is possible that Xi has already decided that he wants to conquer Taiwan based on his ideology and nothing what the Taiwanese people will or can do, will not change his opinion. It is also possible that his faith in the superiority of Communist China makes him believe that he will win the war no matter how bad China's army is or how difficult Taiwan is to invade.

[@NothingIsKnown00]

The water-in-missiles issue, wasn’t that a mistranslation?

[@chasx7062]

NO purely C I A propaganda to get more Americans to go "dye"? NOT many are joining though

[@stooge389]

Clausewitz rlly do be do be do be everyone's favorite early 19th century German military planner. Because no one else reads the books written by the OTHER military planners of the time anymore 😂

[@AndersonTheAgent]

William could use an AI model trained on his voice and none of us would have any idea.

[@alexrator7674]

bro's voice is only slightly more human than nile red

[@edwardblair4096]

I am less than halfway through, so maybe my question is clarified later, but I don't really understand what you mean by "want to" when it comes to having a war. As I see it there are, at least, two levels to whether to "declare" war. One is stratigic: there is some overarching policy goal that can be achieved by waging war. The other is tactical: does the army, as it stands, look like it could win if I started it now, or soon. I can see curruption and other scandals effecting the tactical issue without making much difference in the stratigic one, but I fail to see why only one of these would get the "wants to wage war" lable. In fact, my usage would be that the "wants to" lable is more applicable to the stratigic issue, not the tactical one.

[@Bob.W.]

Formosa would make a lovely 51st state. 😂

[@hashiramasenju3246]

13:42 "Ahh, but that IS the plan, herr doktor. Now that they know our plan, they shall plan around our plan, so we shall plan around the plan that they are planning around our plan!" "You genius knows no bounds!"

[@aluxtaiwan2691]

The news of PLA's corruption is in some way a bad news for Taiwan. Because it means they did find their own mistake and will probably improve on the matter.

[@petergerdes1094]

I fear your assumption of rationality here for the other actors is inappropriate. Reasonable for Xi's deciscions but Taiwanese policy is largely set by domestic democratic politics and I doubt that Taiwanese voters are that perfectly responsive to these shifts. I suspect they will only partially realize the full response. Not to mention the principle agent issues between the Taiwanese leadership and the public. I mean you had to do this video to explain it to us so the analysis only works after you get the Taiwanese public to watch this video ;-).

[@Ballistichydrant]

Just let you know, even at 2x still a little slow tempo. You might consider picking up the pace a little.

[@DavidCooper-vh4nr]

I watched it at x 1.75

[@rogerbrownreacts8528]

More Likely.

[@treyaldridge1757]

Sure, wherever the white line goes, the red line has to track with it. But are you considering that the red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only or that there is no parking in the white zone?

[@Aquastorm]

I have a question regarding the preventative war in the last section. In that part, a "preventative war" (as indicated by the blue line) would mean Taiwan actively seeking independence and thus provoking a a PRC military response. Is that correct in my interpretation? Because if it is correct, I'm having trouble envisioning TW having the military or political will to engage in a first strike policy on PRC targets in the Mainland.

[@rwkh10]

Who doesn't like lines on maps. Trouble is they keep on moving

[@Samson373]

Reasonable but overlooks the CCP's peculiar psychology. Much if not most of the CCP's belligerence is animated by China's economic success. Now that China's economy is in free fall, and now that the CCP has learned that China's economic success rests on the West's cooperation and forbearance, the CCP is now a bit less likely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate that authoritarians often turn to war as a way to distract the people and unify them around the nation's leader. In China's case, however, the impulse toward that belligerent strategy is, on balance, simply outweighed by the humbling and chastening effects of their free falling economy.

[@sorrow_Sam]

I give it 50/50 like everything else

[@TheFireGiver]

There's two options therefore it's 50/50. That's just math you can't argue with that

[@les07derEroberer]

Usually i really like your visualisations, but here you end up doing something confusing, where the line on taiwan going up means favourable control to china, while getting closer to the chinese flag. this gives the inverse image to the viewer, where the land area between the line and china gets smaller the more favourable it is to china. I just found this confusing.

[@flantc]

“We are high functioning adults”…. Whoa, whoa, whoa!!! Pump the brakes! Jump to conclusions much?! Unless you meant the royal “we” in which case I withdraw my objection.