China's Corruption Scandal: Is War with Taiwan Now Less Likely? (ft. the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy)

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Earlier this year, reports of a corruption scandal in China surfaced. Allegations included poorly designed missile silos that are unable to open and soldiers siphoning off fuel for the purposes of cooking hotpot. An oft-repeated conclusion regarding the report is that China will be less likely to stage a military campaign against Taiwan in the near future as a result. Is this true? Using some simple lines on maps logic, we will see that the answer is not so simple.
You can read the original report here: www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
0:00 China's Corruption Scandal and the Probability of War
2:36 What Are the Corruption Allegations?
6:58 Less Desire for War?
9:41 The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy
14:08 Is Conflict Less Likely?
17:04 Asymmetric Information and War
19:17 Preventive War
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media courtesy of the European Union: audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/p...
Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Presidential Office of Taiwan:
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Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Kremlin.ru:
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[@Gametheory101]

15:46 The phone call in question was on December 2, 2016, not the date shown. Trump had won the 2016 election but was not yet president at the time that it occurred.

[@Osprey980]

that makes more sence

[@terrysullivan1992]

He did say "president elect" though.

[@rogerpennel1798]

Stalin's Purges didn't help him in Finland.

[@Tormentality]

@@rogerpennel1798 Neither did Holodomor

[@Toddnesbitt]

Huh??

[@anoldlady8]

I love the Perun reference

[@ivanm.krsticevic1535]

"... Or football, upside down." 😅 2x Australian mentions in 1 article.

[@IconoclastX]

They are basically the same person

[@u2beuser714]

Emutopia kiwiland

[@noneofyourbusiness4133]

@@u2beuser714thank you I love them ^u^

[@inadaizz]

Dude I confuse the two more than I care to admit when they're just playing in the background.

[@geodkyt]

"War is a democracy - the enemy gets a vote." Applies to pretty much all human conflicts, even non-kinetic ones.

[@zzentaq9563]

i would love it if you elaborate on this

[@denis2381]

Taiwan is undeniably a province of China 🇨🇳

[@hitmusicworldwide]

​​@@denis2381well I'm denying the "undeniably" Taiwan has only been under forced Han Chinese rule since the nationalist ROC invasion. The CCP has no claim here.

[@acanadianderg4035]

@@denis2381 When pigs fly

[@denis2381]

@@acanadianderg4035 when spotted, that's an indicator that americans are invading a country

[@haldon12]

I really appreciate any new commentator who has the courage to say "there's really no way to know" about geopolitics. Kudos for breaking everything down in a digestible way. Like everything in game theory, there really is no way to know what people with imperfect intelligence are going to do, and we need to accept that as we try to build the best future we can.

[@Yora21]

"The events that will occur in the following days will be critical in determining what happens after them."

[@Tormentality]

The study of Psychology shows people act in predictable patterns.

[@SkyWolfPirate]

@@Tormentalityit also shows people behave in unpredictable ways also… it usually depends on the amount of data you have on someone or something

[@dereknewbury163]

Even people with perfect intelligence can be unpredictable: the variables are just so many. Xi has built a massive base of expectation among the Chinese people and this will carry its own momentum. Personally I find it obscene that people like Bush, Putin and Xi, on the basis of imperfect historical analysis can decide they have the right to order thousands of young people to their deaths in order to impose their wills

[@NazRessas]

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[@igrowfaster]

Thank you for covering the China - Taiwan issue! I've been wondering when we'd get to this. All kinds of lines on maps!

[@USAMAXI42069]

nothing burger conversation. china will NEVER invade taiwan. so its pointless to speculate

[@statostheman]

As a Karelian descended where our home was very close to the Soviet Union border during the WW2, Stalin also purged his officers before he went to war. I think it’s MORE likely that China will invade, due to the fact that their regime is "wobbling".

[@AaronSoul725]

Agreed it's much more likely for an invasion when the regime is becoming unstable and you need a scapegoat or distraction

[@N.i.c.k.H]

The regime's security is based more on prosperity. War would make China MUCH poorer. No amount of nationalistic fervour would counter that.

[@statostheman]

So was the Soviet Union and look what it happened.

[@CraigTheScotsman]

I’d agree with your analysis. ‘To a people warlike and indignant, an incursion into a rich country is never hurtful.’ - Dr. Samuel Johnston War is good for business and for politics, and we see how domestic insecurity leads to external war time and again as a dynamic deflection. I emphasised the wavering domestic and political security of the US in the early 19th century when I used to lecture on their declaration of war against Britain in the Napoleonic period.

[@stunningandbased5516]

​​@@N.i.c.k.HThis is autocracy 101, "quick and succesful" invasion of your neighbor to distract from domestic issues is a certified classic. Sure it's contradictory at face value, but so is man.

[@Count_Smackula]

Could we get lines on maps in PowerPoint?

[@gideonmele1556]

I’m not sure we could handle it

[@MorbidEel]

Lines on powerpoint

[@jayhill2193]

That would warrant a rebrand to PowerLines, I feel like.

[@YarPirates-vy7iv]

​@@jayhill2193nice wordplay

[@justinsbeaver9010]

William Sperun! The greatest crossover on the KZbin!

[@rolfauner4623]

I was wondering why you didn't point out the flaw in the logic when the news first came out. Now with this new information, I can redraw the line on my mental map.

[@Gametheory101]

I actually recorded this a month ago. The (more pressing) news elsewhere has been moving fast enough that I kept pushing the release date back.

[@advancetotabletop5328]

0:28 : As WS said in an earlier video, it’s unlikely that the Chinese missiles were literally filled with water. Bloomberg more likely misinterpreted the Chinese idiom (which we have a as well) that “watered down” means inferior goods, not necessarily water per se. FYI, In Russia’s attack on Kiev, many of the heavy armored vehicles were unable to continue moving because the corrupt Russian officers bought “Made in China” tires that were unable to hold the weight under actual use. Needless to say, these tires were not filled with water. Thanks for the video!

[@Lulu-yg8dq]

If you track where those tire claims came from. It was from a twitter user who deleted their claims within 1 day of posting it because people found out the tires were actually Belarusian by comparing tire images. But the story lives on. Very relevant to how people believe things that sound right.

[@arthurmoore9488]

That's the bueaty of this piece. It works regardless of the hyperbole, and is relevant beyond the current situation. The problem is explaining it doesn't really fit in a 2 minute time slot, and saying "it's complicated" also doesn't work for the news.

[@alexrator7674]

Correct

[@jasonli5921]

the fact that searching up emutopia leads to perun is wild

[@BoxStudioExecutive]

Where else would it lead?

[@rchergarrett]

"Imagine Lloyd Austin just stopped working." LOL

[@dogcarman]

Maybe just turning him off and on again will fix the issue. It usually does, look how China got their foreign minister back online.

[@StabbinJoeScarborough]

Yeah , just imagine !

[@CAPSLOCKPUNDIT]

Or if he waited for a distraction to launch a special operation.

[@hughmungus2760]

Didn't he literally go MIA for a week because of personal medical issues and Nobody in the whitehouse knew where he was? If any of us did that at our jobs we'd probably be fired.

[@donharrus9994]

Ha

[@JoshWalker1]

Lol. "Rather, war is like basketball. Or, baseball. Or, cricket. Or, football. Or, football (with freedom). Or, football (but upside-down)" 12:37

[@nataliiateteruk585]

Perun will agree.

[@TheAmazingCowpig]

Good thing I already spent that hour in Emutopia immediately prior to this getting posted, I guess.

[@bugtank]

I love the summaries before you get into the talk. This particular summary was a perfect one. Thanks william!

[@colinadevivero]

William, please keep up your excellent work and never stop taking advantage of perfectly unwarranted opportunities for introducing “Lines on maps”, I howl in laughter when you do.

[@JosephHoggang-bk4bk]

They only way to avoid war is to show military strenght and be well prepared for war.

[@gideonmele1556]

Oh my giddy aunt, lines on maps AND Perun powerpoint references? You spoil us

[@johnsullivan6843]

Ah ha, our political scientist host also has some sports knowledge/fandom in his hip pocket... kind of like Richard Nixon 😆. Ages ago when I was in junior high our class was given an assignment to write a persuasive essay, and my premise was: 'the Soviet Union would actually love U.S. football because the game has a physical-battle-for-land-acquisition metaphor that would resonate for them.' If only I had known at the time to call it "Freedom Football"!

[@marcel84marcel]

Lines on basketball courts 🤔 I LOVE IT 🤩😂

[@Barwasser]

There are many lines on the court - just saying

[@PompousDingo]

The lines on the island helped me visualize the lines on maps in my mind very well

[@elyolson3726]

Love the hack-a-Shaq metaphor

[@VicAusTaxiTruckie]

I'm just here to like the Shaq comment 😊

[@PaulAngileri]

@@VicAusTaxiTruckieLOL Me too

[@allezeitderwelt]

Great insights as always ❤

[@bierbrauer11]

Dude, fantastic video and explanation while also weaving in immense amounts of humor! Love this channel!

[@MrDazTroyer]

Phew.... I thought for a minute there would be no lines on maps.

[@GloryToComradeForster]

Yes, it would be the end of the world.

[@SeruraRenge11]

"he has one crippling weakness: free throws" So you're saying you signed Shaq

[@asan1050]

Thanks for posting this video.

[@kallebengtzon5240]

The water in the tanks can be normal and not related to cortuption. Liquid fuel rockets have a problem that the fuel and oxidiser have a combination of a few of these atributes. Toxic, corrosive, cryogenic on top of flamable. Also the rockets are flimsy to be light. The tanks must contain something for added strenght, think an empty beercan compared with a full one. The water could be there to safely store the rockets. And when they prepare to launch it is removed and replaced by fuel and oxidiser.

[@Osprey980]

I thought I heard some where that they were in the ground based tanks

[@maxpower3990]

It could also be a mistranslation. Perun did a great analysis where he stated that the phrase “filled with water” may be slang for general corruption rather than actually filled with water.

[@edwinhuang9244]

@@maxpower3990 I mean, the phrase for unauthorized goods is "水货". 水 means water. So it very well could be a mistranslation.

[@fredericrike5974]

Great presentation. Really makes for appreciating the Vindman bros as NSA liaisons at the White House and why the integrity of such men is so important.

[@oleopathic]

Excellent analysis. "The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy" is PS is interesting.

[@AdeptAnalytic]

Thanks William

[@frankgulla2335]

Thank you for your in-depth analysis of the PRC-Taiwan situation.

[@philipvlnst]

Interesting presentation, but I will have to watch it several times to fully understand it.

[@user-bk7wp4bx5n]

take notes

[@craigrussell7542]

Great piece. A good illustration of the serious dangers of secret alliances or secret promises/guarantees to allies ala WW1. If your advesary doesn't know the actual nature of your position they can badly misjudge the location of the red line.

[@denillefleming2942]

Excellent videos, thank you!

[@Alexandragon1]

Thx for the video!

[@420MilkMan]

I tip my hat to you, that basketball analogy finally helped me grasp the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy

[@BreakingBarriers2DIY]

LOL that “reaction to the reaction infinite regression did not regress to the infinite fast enough to prevent my wife’s frown of “what thevhell are you watching “. I wasn’t about to explain…she has gone back to her task. Lol

[@lisaheartfelia8133]

Intelligent move to only recommend the book that has relevance to the topic in the video instead of also recommending the other, less relevant book. It makes the advertisement more sincere.

[@UGNAvalon]

He also avoids bringing up the Ukraine books entirely when discussing Gaza.

[@UniquelyUnseen]

I studied political science, with a focus on corruption. This channel REALLY makes me regret not researching arms deals and the math of war. This is genuinely interesting stuff.. and I bet the DC blob would pay handsomely :D

[@Anton-tf9iw]

Xi Jinping uses the label "corruption" a lot for removing rival CCP factions from power positions.

[@GreatAffinityProductions]

Lol @ the use of "field goals" @ 12:07 when talking about basketball. Mostly because I haven't heard it often.

[@johnsullivan6843]

There are field goals in "freedom football" 🤣, but take a look at a basketball box score and see that shots are indeed called field goals, which are abbreviated to FGM (for shots made) and FGA (for shots attempted). Our narrator got it right!

[@davidmedlin8562]

Low key using Shaq as your basketball example..... love it!

[@colinboynton192]

I thought it was a reference to Antetokounmpo before hack-a-Shaq was brought up.

[@kurtwinslow2670]

Taiwan needs to cut through the BS of ambiguity, which could lead to a war. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) worked to keep the former Soviet Union and the USA at bay from each other and put a stop to either party waging war. MAD can do the same in the Taiwan strait too. Even Pakistan and India who are bitter rivals hold back from any major conflict, due to nukes. Nukes are a deterrent to major conflict and if conflict does occurs, it's metered.

[@pimpampet7053]

Great video William. I love them.

[@chronus4421]

Thanks!

[@oleapmann1422]

Absolut brilliant video again

[@FrozenSpector]

Very informative.

[@stenjogi6339]

13:45 I thought this was going to go on until the end of the video

[@Aquastorm]

I have a question regarding the preventative war in the last section. In that part, a "preventative war" (as indicated by the blue line) would mean Taiwan actively seeking independence and thus provoking a a PRC military response. Is that correct in my interpretation? Because if it is correct, I'm having trouble envisioning TW having the military or political will to engage in a first strike policy on PRC targets in the Mainland.

[@TheFireGiver]

"We are all high functioning adults here" press x to doubt

[@alexrator7674]

After looking at the replies in some comments I will certainly press X

[@petrius658]

Very complex and convoluted video, but you explained it very well and I was able to digest the information, well done!

[@CAPSLOCKPUNDIT]

He used easily interpreted graphics, and wasn't Russian the pace. Otherwise, I could see how it would Taiwan in knots.

[@enzoh7763]

Complex and convoluted is correct , Add ,, incomplete and lacking spherical vision in discussion , all in good times , was good listening than listening to mother in law rantings.

[@ShaolinTech_]

13:33 I had to rewind the video because I was not expecting to see that reference on this channel. HOLLA.

[@stanleyh.904]

My cat loves your videos, the moving shadowed PNGs really do it for him

[@Billytomtom18]

Hello William, its Ironic how when I watched your possibly first video on Russian Corruption, I shared it comments calling you an Aussie Guy. Personally I I depend on Quality Tools and they don’t come from China. The thing that China makes the best is those little stickers, made in china 🛑 Then I instantly thought you were the channel of PERUN , sorry for the confusion 😮 Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦🚀🇺🇸🇺🇦💯 Glory To All The People Of Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@JayRappa]

I love lines on maps!!!!!!!

[@GDrake24]

Hi, thanks for the insightful analysis. I reluctantly admit that I fail to entirely grasp how the theoretical lines work. I have watched several other videos but it does not seem to help. Is there a particular video / text that would allow me to fully internalize how the system of arbitrarily drawing lines materializes the expectations of governments, and their willingness to act / not act on those expectations? I thank in advance anyone who responds to this comment.

[@Gametheory101]

Short of taking an actual class on the subject, this is the most thorough summary I have: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pnPahWBrr56Fa6M This is the class: kzbin.info/aero/PLKI1h_nAkaQrvKPtuPMXkU4yXCDSp_NHh

[@youssefsammouh501]

the lines on maps are just an attempt at representing in a single variable (area on the map) all the variables that have value in bargaining for the sides of a conflict. So we are collapsing all of these things that have value into 1 thing we can look at. For example russia's decision to invade ukraine takes into account many things that they value. They have gains in: the land itself, security risk from NATO, people in eastern ukraine, propaganda material, etc...; and they have losses in: soldier's lives, material costs of militarization, people's dissatisfaction, etc... In practice each of these variables can be given a numeric value (soldier's life = 100$, 1 mile of land = 200 $, so if we can gain 1 mile but we will lose 1 soldier, it is worth it). When all variables are measured in the same unit, you can simply add and subtract everything to see if you have net gain or loss. This unit can be $ or space on a map, or anything really. hope that helps

[@Joe--]

​@@Gametheory101 Thank you! 🙏 this helps a lot

[@GDrake24]

@@Gametheory101 Thank you :). I will take the class, as it seems very thorough, which I appreciate. Also, thank you for all the work you're doing; it is really helpful!

[@JamesHGroffSr]

It is amazing the way people are MADE to think

[@DrZylvon]

dear William, could you possibly include publication dates on screen next to the news snippets/headlines you display ?

[@GeoScorpion]

Perun already did a full analysis of the water/rocket fuel issue and said the claim is irrelevant if not bogus.

[@BoomMC_Inc]

Love the perun reference

[@thomaslove6494]

Very straight lines this time... I prefer the curved ones...

[@embreis2257]

12:38 'war is like basketball or baseball or cricket or football or _football with freedom_ or football, but upside down.' LOL, *football with freedom* funny, I love it!

[@flyingfox707b]

7:00 i almost fell out of my chair when he mentioned Perun!

[@edwardblair4096]

I am less than halfway through, so maybe my question is clarified later, but I don't really understand what you mean by "want to" when it comes to having a war. As I see it there are, at least, two levels to whether to "declare" war. One is stratigic: there is some overarching policy goal that can be achieved by waging war. The other is tactical: does the army, as it stands, look like it could win if I started it now, or soon. I can see curruption and other scandals effecting the tactical issue without making much difference in the stratigic one, but I fail to see why only one of these would get the "wants to wage war" lable. In fact, my usage would be that the "wants to" lable is more applicable to the stratigic issue, not the tactical one.

[@jpa5038]

I think it's a combination of things that make China invading Taiwan less likely now than say a year ago. First and foremost on that list is China's economy is very vulnerable right now. Second is China sees exactly what is in store for it if they invade Taiwan. And what they're looking at is the state of Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Catastrophically unsustainable losses, economic/political isolation, instability on the home front as Russian GDP continues to shrink and the body count goes well beyond 400k dead Russians. China doesn't want to take Taiwan at all cost. That's Russia's MO in Ukraine. China wants a two week fight. To overwhelm Taiwan's defense in the first week, have Taiwan fully turned into a protectorate by week 2 and then be fully subsumed before the start of week 3. And at that point the US comes to the conclusion that it's fully a lost cause and any resistance we generate just ends immediately. Now I don't think any of this is a reasonable expectation for China even under the best of circumstances but there are certainly voices in the Chinese government that believe it will be easy. They're quieter now that China is struggling.

[@MichelMohr]

I can't seem to find this emutopia, only getting emulation related results

[@bigjared8946]

What is this "emutopia" referenced @6:30? Power points narrated in British Texan is my jam.

[@georgevelez6388]

Part of an ongoing reference in many videos by the Australian (Power Point) Defense Analyst named Perun. His three part series on how corruption destroys militaries is well worth watching.

[@peterfranz286]

I have really tried to understand these lines on maps but I am not. Is there just an explanation of the model without complications of drawing it onto a physical map?

[@andersgrassman6583]

If you have difficulty just disregarding the background map, redraw the lines on a paper of your own. (The map is a bit of fun though.)

[@nicolaywoods9817]

Plarf is a term i never knew i need in my life

[@64wbryantex]

Nice peru reference!! We Gucci out to our them big birds!!!

[@NothingIsKnown00]

The water-in-missiles issue, wasn’t that a mistranslation?

[@chasx7062]

NO purely C I A propaganda to get more Americans to go "dye"? NOT many are joining though

[@psychosageio]

"It's okay, I'll still be here in an hour" is some straight up fightin' words in geopolitical KZbin I'd reckon

[@KUSHxKiNG]

12:02 fouls? Field goals?? Are we still comparing to basketball😂😂😂

[@thisherehandleIdospout]

19:27 Oh... oh, you are cute, William Spaniel. You are so cute 😂 Love your work - Keep it up, sir!

[@rogerbrownreacts8528]

More Likely.

[@Nappanaia]

6:32 I was ready for him to say Perun

[@swisstroll3]

If something is “likely” or “unlikely”, that implies a probability. Let’s ignore the fractions, and give a probability of from 1 to 99 percent. If it is any value, an event can still happen or not happen. So “more likely” and “less likely” are just an opinion.

[@meisner-effect]

Professor Spaniel, thank you, I hope you narrated your book, Audible rocks, I can take in a book in two days, whilst I game with one eye,) take care Professor

[@stooge389]

Kalliningrad is an island, too.....

[@Mesozoic_mammal]

Would that mean that more volatility in the position of the red line (e.g. quick changes in the balance of power) would incease the likelyhood of war? In a more volatile environment there are more changes to the line position, therefore more readjustments, therefore a greater likelyhood of a failure to keep the equilibrium.

[@N.i.c.k.H]

Probably not. If the parties know that the line is volatile they probably have less confidence in its current position and a greater fear that it might move against them during a war. You would have to believe in a really quick victory, relative to the rate of change, for war to make sense, and Ukraine and the sort of problems being discovered in China mean that a quick victory looks ever less possible.

[@casfren]

Nice perun shout out. :)

[@user-eo7is1wh4l]

Err...ves...I think I got all of that...I'll actually watch it all again...thank you. 😮

[@lobstereleven4610]

@perun mentioned! 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@dimondcat6460]

More lines on maps les go

[@squintsyadams8463]

Perun is a great channel.

[@Hodoss]

2:54 PLARF, the sound of a water-filled missile.

[@ffsf4209]

"The escalation of anticipation."

[@lgr2013]

Three Gorges Dam, Yiling District

[@chasx7062]

launched from where?

[@SVSky]

06:37, I love me my Perun powerpoints.

[@victoriahigman6802]

I know I’ve said it before but you’re so funny. Helps me keep track of what you’re saying 🤭

[@hashiramasenju3246]

13:42 "Ahh, but that IS the plan, herr doktor. Now that they know our plan, they shall plan around our plan, so we shall plan around the plan that they are planning around our plan!" "You genius knows no bounds!"

[@kevincolwell3066]

owww... he said a thing about my favorite power point guy!

[@Bobbydyland]

@5:08 A Shangfu disprey!

[@lovegod1steverythingelse2n47]

The hard T’s always keeps me engaged

[@Jimmy1349]

Doesn't close the door completely but it certainly narrows the window and the smaller the window is the better

[@ah64apoche]

19:28 I see the pun you're running with lol

[@Ballistichydrant]

Just let you know, even at 2x still a little slow tempo. You might consider picking up the pace a little.

[@DavidCooper-vh4nr]

I watched it at x 1.75

[@asongtiadepelong3892]

Lines on new map

[@treyaldridge1757]

Sure, wherever the white line goes, the red line has to track with it. But are you considering that the red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only or that there is no parking in the white zone?

[@pro-libertatibus]

0:07 ConflagERation? Another for my collection.