How a French Intervention in Ukraine Would Work

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On February 26, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that "nothing can be ruled out" in terms of placing French troops on the ground in Ukraine. How would that work? Under what circumstances might it happen? And would it trigger a broader conflict with NATO? This video explores what might be the next major twist in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
0:00 France Mulls Sending Troops into Ukraine
1:23 France's Security Concerns
4:49 France's Role in the Russia-Ukraine War Thus Far
8:57 The Plausibility of a French Intervention
11:04 Deploying a Tripwire
16:05 Active Internvetion
17:21 Will It Trigger Article 5?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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[@joaovitormatos8147]

The croissant of consequences rarely comes buttered

[@Ar1AnX1x]

oui oui

[@kapsi]

Hon hon hon

[@Canodiablo]

@@kapsi Ton français est bon

[@EdT.-xt6yv]

Only on the 4th rock-Y planet from our Sol,,,

[@kurtwicklund8901]

But it takes a lot of butter to make that croissant. I have no idea how this affects the metaphor.

[@kurtwicklund8901]

"Poland is warmer to the idea". Poland: "Do it. Do it! DO IT! DOITDOITDOITDOITDOIT!!!!"

[@xeanderman6688]

Meanwhile Czechia: "Oh shit is it time to defenestrate someone again? Maybe the Russian ambassador this time?"

[@echo_9835]

Poland understands the living next to Russia is a terminal condition.

[@u2beuser714]

Poland literally got invaded hundreds of times by russia they have every right to be pissed

[@AnP865]

Poland were very into joining NATO and there's a channel called sarcasmtron with a video called 'shut up about nato expansion' which has some interesting detail about Poland vs Bill Clinton

[@michaellitten4538]

@@echo_9835it can be amicable, especially if Russia offer them their land back..

[@brey6394]

That was a helpful video to understand what is happening and the possibilities for the future. These are precarious times. Lastly, I enjoy your humor. It helps to lighten the serious nature of the topic. 👏🏼👍🏼

[@casparcoaster1936]

Ok, time to subscribe, much obliged

[@tommohsien888]

"Talk is cheap." That sums up the inherent disadvantage of civility vs jungle rules in actual war.

[@c0ya1]

When it comes to war - in my eyes, it's the way of the wild. Go nuts if you wanna win.

[@nHautamaki]

Depends who's doing the talking. Certainly some have more credibility than others.

[@tommohsien888]

@@nHautamaki Problem with that is ,modern western leaders only have such influence at time of crisis like 9/11 or after Cold War, without even mentioning half of social media tearing you down in current environment. In essence, you need the cred of winning in Ukraine to have the cred to win in Ukraine,so here we are.

[@Nauda999]

@@tommohsien888 Cred doesn't win wars, weapons and people that know how to use them.

[@Sandrelis]

"and ammunition is what, Micah?"

[@StevenStarksjbirdcapitalllc]

Article 5 couldn’t be invoked because France willingly intervened in Ukraine. Same for Poland or Baltic troops. Russia would have to attack those countries directly for that to happen. Similar to what happened after 9/11. It wasn’t triggered in Vietnam, or Korea or in any of the other interventions that the United States was involved in. Basically what I am saying is that if France intervenes directly, unless Russia attacks French soil or Baltic soil directly NATO wouldn’t be involved. NATO would definitely be on an even higher alert.

[@chloeholmes4641]

Article 5 had been triggered once and once only, that was during the balkans war between kosavo and serbia! Correction, it was triggered only once, in the wake after 9/11, not in kosovo!

[@angelikaskoroszyn8495]

My 300 IQ plan goes like this: Poland officially anex the whole territory of Ukraine (bc something something history bs) => Ukraine = Poland =>Russia is attacking Poland => Russia is attacking a NATO country

[@neurofiedyamato8763]

Article 5 only covers northern hemisphere so Vietnam wouldn't have counted anyways and its why Falklands didn't count. Idea is to avoid dragging the alliance into colonial wars.

[@berlineczka]

@@chloeholmes4641And article 5 only once as well, by the USA after 9/11.

[@soakedmovie9231]

​@@chloeholmes4641balkan

[@AdeptAnalytic]

Thanks William

[@brandonallan6807]

Great information & analysis!

[@KimJungGooner]

If France wants to send troops to Ukraine, let em. If Poland wants to, let em. Article 5 isn't triggered when a NATO country, or even a coalition of NATO countries goes on the offensive.

[@davidford3115]

Agreed. They accept the risk when they intervene and can't cry when their troops are killed in Ukraine.

[@Huminahumina465]

@@davidford3115does that mean Russia can’t cry when their soldiers are killed by the French? They did invade a country leaning towards the west, they know the risk

[@davidford3115]

@@Huminahumina465 That is a fair point.

[@franckdebzh7608]

​@@davidford3115You are right. "America First". This is what Charles Lindbergh and Henry Ford said before Pearl Harbor.

[@charlybravo1354]

France sending troops to Ukraine is not yet "goes on the offensive".

[@echo_9835]

If you France around, you may get the baguette.

[@cynthiaherbst3909]

Unbuttered

[@FlorinSutu]

Take the best from both worlds: the girl from Russia or Ukraine and the baguette from France.

[@IncognitoActivado]

France sucks, soooo...

[@baguettelauncher8839]

we have nothing good to take from america @@FlorinSutu

[@needoliprane7114]

Need some Spanish for the chorizo and Italian for cheese

[@morpheus24]

Fantastic point about broadly worded founding documents - How many authors can confidently anticipate how their work will be applied/interpreted in the future?

[@signoguns8501]

Scary thing is, i dont think anyone really knows whats going to happen. No one is in control of the situation. Theyre all trying to second-guess and third-guess each other, hoping that they will eventually come out on top. We're all just going to have to wait and see what happens, bcause almost anything can happen at any time.

[@christopherreid4798]

"or if you're hungary, just do nothing." 🤣

[@jacobcave1587]

That funny because it’s true

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@bfs69er]

@@peterkay4122why do you keep saying that, Macron would love to be 1/10 as popular as Napoleon. Also, what happened to the French army in 1812

[@WWRTheJudge]

​@@bfs69er 💯👍🏼

[@Born782]

Better for Hungary to do nothing than loose thousands of life for a whole bunch of something. Something that backfires many many times over as we can see.

[@hipoglouton6602]

Having ally troops on Ukraine soil bordering Belarus could free up the tens of thousand ukrainian troops actually stuck there and allow them to fight on the east front.

[@xdCrispy-Crisss]

Are there Ukrainian POWs being held there?

[@sophieturner2676]

What's needed now is peace talks

[@A1esund]

That’s actually a good tactic on first thought

[@simianessence]

Fight with what?

[@cliffordting8650]

​@@A1esund- At first thought maybe. On deeper thought, perhaps not. French troops (btw, France is part of NATO) is a redline for Putin. There are Russian troops in Belarus and Russia itself has transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. If the French move into that area, another front is likely to open in that border, now with Belarusian forces also involved. And Kyiv is only 620 km or about 8 hrs drive by car to the Belarus border, which is why a considerable number of Ukraine troops are stationed there in the first place. So, no! French troops should just stay home and not get involved.

[@suicidalbanananana]

Thanks for a great summary as always! 👍 ---- Just something mostly off-topic that i had to pitch in because its been bothering me a bit, all the recent AI chatbots in a nutshell: they tell you the most encountered "opinion" (in their training data) on a certain subject, that's it. And we all know the internet (source of _all_ training data) isn't really full of fact-checked information, instead it's just 75% people talking about what they think etc & maybe 25% actually correct info, even if that much. Its may appear like the AI's do focus on the correct info and even appear 'smart' at times, but then you realize it's because they literally told it "no" while talking to it for years before showing the public, people don't seem to understand that in some sense it's still expecting (for lack of better terminology) to be told no? it doesnt 'know' whats right or wrong, about anything, for all it 'knows' its just playing some kind of guessing game. And it doesn't actually "know" at all, we're nowhere near something like a rat brain or whatever. With all due respect to the work that has been done, the term AI as it has become used in the last few years is extremely overblown. We're literally no step further compared to a few decades ago but now we have more data, that's not worth all this fuss at all, bubble gonna pop soon when something hits some fan. 🤷‍♂

[@djprentowalker8878]

Great summary he is delusional

[@tommyhuffman7499]

That opening joke was hilarious XD I want a t-shirt that says "France around and find out!"

[@lilbubz2803]

I find it funny Russia can send 2000 men to Moldova to “preserve the peace” but they cry the second France considers sending 2000 peacekeepers to the boarder of Belarus in Ukraine lmao I thought Russia was “fighting the whole west” anyway, so what difference does it make if it’s 2000 men or 200000, I thought they were already fighting the west 😂

[@genericscout5408]

Yeah Russia can't beat four countries with proper militaries all at once with normal military weapons. Nuclear exchanges wise Russia might still be rather strong. Though people probably doubt that Russia is capable and kept them working.

[@mehmetfatihcetin5932]

​@@genericscout5408i doubt russian airforce can create air superiority for nuclear fallout. Ofc they could bomb some but i don think they can deploy as many as nato

[@AJ-sw8uf]

@@genericscout5408I don’t want to find out

[@genericscout5408]

@@AJ-sw8uf Russia is also scared itself to use them. They'll accept losing Russian territory like towns maybe cities before using Nukes.

[@JayMaverick]

Fear of phantom Russian nukes and denial of reality that we're already at war keeps western politicians at bay.

[@ares106]

12:02 “trip wire force” what a nice way to describe sacrificial cannon fodder.

[@SumDumDude952]

It happens, been part of the trip wire before. Luckily it didn’t go off but we probably would have been okay. At least, I tell myself that

[@lightotw]

Most UN peacekeeping efforts are exactly this. It has been around for awhile and often works.

[@user-md2io4fe1p]

Это как эко-активист который привязал себя к дереву чтобы его не спилили

[@rustyrazor1853]

@17:55 LOVE the references to SUPER MARIO 64. Such nostalgia. Love that game

[@Darkseidsolosfiction]

Viva la France 🇬🇪♥️🇫🇷

[@psychohist]

Even in retaliation for a Ukraine intervention, a Russian attack on France proper would clearly trigger Article 5. A more "grey area" case would be if Russia attacked the French embassy in Ukraine, which is diplomatically considered French territory.

[@chrislong3938]

Except that didn't help the US in '79 in Tehran...

[@Emanon...]

The US bombed the Chinese embassy in Serbia in 1998. Whoops... An embassy is not considered sovereign foreign territory. It's a myth. Any belligerent act nullifies the agreement and an embassy mission can at any point be rescinded by the host country.

[@psychohist]

@@chrislong3938 Did the US invoke Article 5?

[@chrislong3938]

@@psychohist I'm not sure if we had to, I think it's a NATO function. Does the 'attackee' have to invoke it? To be honest, I don't know.

[@Brent-jj6qi]

@@chrislong3938The US likely just played it off, however, if it happened to nato now, the eastern parts would instantly invoke it to get some revenge and drag western nations in

[@asan1050]

William Spaniel Thanks for posting this video.

[@1harperaj]

This video reminded me of our wedding in Ouistreham, France to a French woman. The mayor who was officiating kept saying article this or article that, some of the numbers I recognised, but the rest remained Double Duch to me, only when the mayor looked towards me I knew it was my prompt to utter the word “Oui”

[@jayduke8554]

Incredible assessment 😊

[@mtzuul7401]

17:55 I wasn't expecting a Super Mario 64 reference in this channel of all places 😂. Great video as always!

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@mullanalle4318]

Really well thought video. Thank you

[@cameroncunningham204]

This could be interesting. Since France is not a part of NATO’s command structure, it can intervene without escalating the war outside of Ukraine, France is a well seasoned military, a capable Air Force, and not to mention the French foreign Legion with its plenty of experience fighting low intensity conflicts If done right they can help Ukraine push back Russia to its Borders

[@JohnDoe-cg7rs]

Article 6: “For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America…” France intervening in Ukraine would NOT trigger Article 5, no more than the US interventions in Vietnam or Iraq did.

[@anandarochisha]

French Troops doing border security on all but Russian border and frontline would free up a lot of Ukrainian troops and equipment for the front. Also, maintenance and support for a squadron of Mirage jets in Western Ukraine to achieve air superiority is a good deal.

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@franciscouderq1100]

@@peterkay4122 elementary school type of commentary. Try again , show smartness May be intelligence, who knows ?

[@stanspb763]

Will a single Mirage take to the air? Russian air defense is the best in the world, and Ukraine has almost none, you make no sense. Russian troops are mostly on their own territory of Donbas so Mirages will not get close to Russian troops before being shot down. Watching them arrive means they are one missile strike away from obliteration.

[@nimmha6708]

@@stanspb763 hahahahahaha

[@nimmha6708]

@@stanspb763 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@Tenvalmestr]

I'm not convince about the trip wiring argument. At least, I doubt it will work in France. If military men die in Ukraine, many French people will blame Macron for it, not Russia. However, if the goal is to push other European countries to intervene, maybe a few of them could flip. Also, a lot of people here talk about (and you kinda did in your video) how France will send troops in Ukraine. Macron never said that, and that's important. It's obvious that everyone is considering sending troops in Ukraine, even if they don't talk about it. That's just what the head command of every armies in the world is supposed to do : planning, even if it won't happen. "Just in case". If France finally send troops in Ukraine, I'll be really hyped about it, but I know that many here won't like that at all... (it's a french tradition to call every decisions made by our democratically elected leader, as a really bad decisions)

[@janfiedler5584]

I am born in formal Czechoslovakia and there is lot of Czechs and Slovaks that will switch the side in case NATO provoke the conflict in full scale confrontation with Russian federation...just let me know in advance so I can buy Chinese and Russian dictionary

[@rebelbatdave5993]

Probably like WWII? After Germany invaded Poland. A French unit crossed into Germany and turned around. Without firing a shot! Couple weeks later, They SURRENDERED! AND they've been crying ever since!

[@SuperINFINITY181]

I was wondering: is it possible that you might consider doing a video on the theory posed by Peter Zeihan that Russia is motivated in part out of a perceived strategic need to restore the outer crustal defensive perimeter it enjoyed during the Soviet period? You have said similar things in the past, but I should like to get a second opinion from a perspective that I can reasonably trust. Thank you for your time!

[@jurgnobs1308]

the French significantly helped the US in its revolutionary war. and of course the US has paid it back in the 20th century. maybe Ukraine needs a similar kind of help and chance. interventionism can work if the country you help aswell as its population want your help. some people took the wrong lessons from the failed interventionist wars of the last few decades

[@justinwilliams2000]

Or the right lessons.

[@Brent-jj6qi]

Exactly this, only help people who want to be helped

[@carloshour8263]

There were no nukes in the 1700s

[@markotoshich7676]

Russians helped in US civil war and even sent their navy ships as support to New York City and San Francisco, therefore Dems want revenge

[@urubissoldat5452]

Right because the French intervention totally ended well for France after the American Revolution...

[@TNX255]

At first I also was very unsure whether if William is narrating his videos himself or using an AI text-to-speech thing. But I stuck with his videos as they seemed to make sense and were interesting, and after a while I began to notice some very small things in his articulation that made me not question his humanity anymore. It did take quite a few videos though. He sure would make for a great fake AI narrator - if such a thing were to be needed somewhere :) Oh and loved the Mario 64 references there ;)

[@emilen2]

Haha spot on. He sounds like a robot 🙂

[@spamcan9208]

He has a unique way of speaking that is only exacerbated by the fact narration gets spliced together.

[@canadiangemstones7636]

Could be worse. Lot of vocal fry out there, and folks who are just horrible speakers.

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@crescentprincekronos2518]

It ends like this: you turn your key, they turn their key, we all turn our keys, GAME OVER

[@user-je6bt4nt4w]

Lol 😂

[@marlenfras5490]

Good reporting. Thank you. Go Democracy.

[@gebys4559]

Insightful as always. Thanks Willl

[@michael-m]

As a political scientist myself, I very much appreciate the quality and accuracy of your content. You know, I would love to coauthor a paper or journal one day with you! We can all dream, right? lol Keep up the great work, my friend

[@IncognitoActivado]

Copium.

[@romavilla7855]

😂😂his own idea..it’s got copyright by him..!🎉🎉

[@MS-qx9uw]

@@romavilla7855what?

[@MS-qx9uw]

@@IncognitoActivadoexplain what part of op is the copium you speak of

[@dannydetonator]

MS-qx9uw These nonsensical remarks usually comes from kremlinbots. Just a misused method of discreditation without reason. Quite a few of them in this comment section (like every one mentioning the triggerwords), but not of the best quality.

[@robertbruce7686]

A question: is the Molitov-Ribbentrop pact still valid?

[@mangoritapizza1450]

The pastries are soggy leftovers of former glory. Loved that commentary from Senegal😄

[@williamstacey1032]

The Soviet union sent troops and pilots to Korea so they have no reason to complain if France sends planes, pilots, and ground troops to Ukraine as long as the stay within Ukraine's borders.

[@davidford3115]

The bigger issue is if Russian aircraft violate Ukrainian airspace. Would NATO assets engage the Russians? That could be the "Man, Moment, Machine" that sparks wider conflict.

[@Eridelm]

Not officially, no. The Chinese certainly did and did officially, SU did it via adversaries, "volunteers" and pilots under cover

[@jsimmons9969]

Uhhh the soviet union doesn't exist anymore.

[@williamstacey1032]

@@jsimmons9969 same trash different name.

[@aar0n709]

Didn’t the Soviet Union have a Ukrainian president ??

[@DarthMad87]

You are nailing the Turing test!

[@unoriginalname4321]

"I am not an AI" is exactly what I would expect an AI to say

[@varalderfreyr8438]

His voice has to much spit in it to be A.I

[@martinhmyz8515]

Here is a scenario of French troops being deployed: 1. France deploys in Ukraine. 2. Old church in France gets burned. 3. France withdraws Also that book ... "How Ukraine survived" looks kind of interesting. I will probably read it right after it doesn't.

[@tonyruggz4487]

You must have read my comment from one of your previous vids. I actually understood this one. I mentioned I would buy one of your books. Changed my mind. I will now buy a few for the two most important and loved ones in my life. A transplant from America to Europe. How fuckin stupid for the Europeans to think what they been thinking. Personally I love Europe and don't want to witness what I am, dare to say experiencing. I am very concerned in more ways than one. Example: what were they thinking? I can go on and on but won't. You are something. My Brooklynese coming out. Pls keep your vids coming and keeping them simple for, well..😉😉👍

[@RonJohn63]

6:45 I'm sure that Russia _did_ want a peaceful solution. It's just happened to be "Ukraine surrenders unconditionally". 8:48 The Cowboy Reagan Gambit 17:32 _Why should it_ trigger Article 5? None of the US' interventions have.

[@WeatherManToBe]

Ish. 911 was a retaliation for USA interference in East Timor, and Saudi Arabia. what if Russia attacks a French asset in France before it is deployed to Ukraine?

[@gooldii1]

Didn't Tucker Carlton said Moscow was very safe ??

[@RonJohn63]

@@gooldii1 what does that have to do with my comment?

[@gooldii1]

@@RonJohn63 Think again! You can!

[@unbindingfloyd]

Just have to point out. Germany did not invade Poland. Germany AND the USSR invaded Poland. Why people fail to bring that up still is strange.

[@davidford3115]

It is as if people have never heard of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Aliiance, or as the Poles call it "The Pact of Blood".

[@MN-vz8qm]

Because the Russians only came in at the last minute. Just like when Germany was invading France, the Italians joined at the last minute, and despite essentially kicking someone who was already on the ground, they only managed to break their own foot in the process.

[@gertjan1710]

@@MN-vz8qm 1939 is not 'the last minute'

[@MN-vz8qm]

@@gertjan1710 ??? The russians joined a week before the end of the invasion of poland.

[@shronkler1994]

Just have to point out. Germany did not invade France. Germany AND the Italians invaded France. Why people fail to bring that up still is strange.

[@edwardweiszbeck1649]

I’ve said it before. I like your logic and analysis

[@bobmills8341]

Thank you William. Very thought provoking and informative, both current and historical. As a pensioner in Canada I want a world that my grand daughter can grow up in equally as much as Ukraine winning this war totally. Keep up the good work.

[@marijanstankovic8036]

Hahahaha, good joke. Very funny.

[@teruterubozo]

Nobody wins this war

[@gary6576]

Go to sleep grandpa I'm sorry but don't you want your granddaughter to have a world to inherit, rather than a nuclear wasteland?

[@ScottRawdin]

William Thank You for this excellent exposé.

[@brianschwab9607]

The territorial limitation of Article 5 is found in Article 6, which delimits the area in which the armed attack has to take place (North America, Europe and other clearly defined areas north of the Tropic of Cancer).

[@thorr18BEM]

He covered Article 6 in the video.

[@PLATONU]

-How Ukraine survived? -Is a puppet alive?

[@brunol-p_g8800]

24:36: on the contrary, expect things to immediately turn to nukes. An attack on French territory, conventional or nuclear, automatically triggers a nuclear response from France. That’s France nuclear strategy.

[@till8014]

The problem with French nuclear weapons is that their arsenal is actually too small to provide credible deterrence. France has just under 300 nuclear warheads, distributed across just four submarines, of which only one is operational at most. In an emergency, deterrence would depend on a single submarine. By comparison, the USA and Russia each have over 5,000 warheads, distributed across dozens of submarines and land-based intercontinental missiles...

[@tuehojbjerg969]

@@till8014 A: you are overstating the numbers of warheads and it dont matter 300 100kiloton warheads isenough to destróy every singe city and town in russia, B: France can launch its missiles from their harbour and reach russia its part of their plan, they have a range of 10000km meaning it can be in harbour in marsille and hit siberia

[@allegromoderato7404]

​@@till8014Cela ne sert à rien de pouvoir détruire plusieurs fois la planète. Nous serons tous morts avant. La France possède 4 sous-marins nucléaires lanceurs d' engins. Le pouvoir de destruction de chaque submersible représente 1200 fois la bombe d'Hiroshima. En cas d'attaque, Moscou et St Petersbourg seront vitrifiés en 10 mn. Il faut y ajouter la force aérienne stratégique... Cette dissuasion stratégique est amplement suffisante et les Russes le savent, c'est notre assurance vie. Et Poutine tient à la vie

[@till8014]

@@tuehojbjerg969 Of course, 300 warheads would theoretically work, but it is questionable whether they would all hit their target in the event of war and not be intercepted or destroyed right at the start of the war. Technical malfunctions can also never be completely ruled out, as we saw with the British missile tests that failed several times. In order to be able to maintain a credible deterrent at all times, France would need at least twice as many submarines as it currently has.

[@electricspeedkiller8950]

@@tuehojbjerg969 Russians have upward of 7 thousand warheads. Both sides could level each other. The point is to avoid that. But instead you're talking about France bombing Siberia. You should be stripped of human rights.

[@stephaneric3021]

Thee French Connection, is my favourite film of all time

[@DeepFinger-UA]

Très bon film 👍🏻

[@InfernalPasquale]

Very high quality analysis. Thank you.

[@LitCrease]

It's crazy how a goofy politician can get asshurt that no one respects him on the world stage, and now he wants to put millions of innocent lives at risk to make himself look a little tougher.

[@ahmednasrulla4766]

This is applicable for both sides unfortunately

[@tomislav5689]

​@@ahmednasrulla4766 no it's not. Putin started all this, everyone else gave him diplomacy, too much diplomacy. Now is time to end his Imperialistic aspirations

[@grantp4022]

Very good video, and very educational and enlightning. Very much enjoyed it. As someone who grew up in a peaceful country, and not realizing how the threat of War is very real, until now, when we see Russia attacking. You have power hungry dictators, who want to expand their influence and territory, at the expense of the peaceful countries, you "have no choice" other than to build up your defence capabilities, and if not, you soon will "soon" be ruled by that enemy. If we want to keep our freedom, we will always have to fight for it. We take freedom for granted all to often, until you see a foreign power like Russia emerge, and in the process of destroying Ukraine, and next up will be Poland, and others, until their stopped.

[@brendanhickey4955]

they’ll intervene as strictly training and logistical assistance. As well as giving humanitarian assistance and evacuation support to the civilians around combat zones

[@nitroglycerific9295]

I am 100% here for all these crème de la crème puns.

[@Ebroglio2]

what this fails to take into account is... Russian incursions into French speaking Africa. France is genuinely PISSED at lost resource revenue in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

[@stephen10.]

The whole africa represents only 10 % of french international trade and Sahel (mali,niger,burkina) even less. France had only an old mine for uranium in niger almost empty. We lose very few in fact.

[@stephen10.]

Ex french president hollande already wanted to leave sahel in 2016.

[@GEOCENTRISMO-canal]

Canal com cortes e info diária sobre a Guerra da Ucrânia: SE INSCREVA www.youtube.com/@GEOCENTRISMO-canal

[@weissbiersaufen]

Never thought I'd see this video 2 years ago

[@donaldpetersen2382]

Indeed this one feel very very late.

[@levilivengood4522]

things are getting out of hand and no one gives a damn

[@syriuszb8611]

As a Pole, I am even more suspicious of NATO defence promises after learning that there is ambiguity built in. And Poles already have huge trust issues in alliances since 1939... So, thanks for another war-related anxiety spike!

[@embreis2257]

Poland was in a alliance in 1939? it looks Poland is in a better position than it ever was in all its history when it comes to having friends and being in close alliances - both the EU and NATO.

[@syriuszb8611]

@@embreis2257 Yes, we had defensive arrangements with France and UK. That's why they declared war, but they took half measures that did absolutely nothing. Worst was that UK sent bombers to German cities, but instead of bombs they dropped leaflets asking for them to stop the war. Most British thing I ever have read about. But considering whole history- yes, we are now in best geopolitical position we ever was, but that's more telling about our historic struggles than about our current safety. The biggest risk that I see is if Trump gets re elected, then I could see that he refuses to help due to those ambiguities built in. And then Germany could be too afraid to fight (both of Russia and their own past), and countries could be too afraid to be first to make a move knowing that US will not intervene. Although I have high confidence in Baltic States, Finland and Sweden, it could be too difficult for them to make a change in Poland.

[@royalpain6338]

I'll be honest my man, you guys are nothing more than a speedbump for NATO, its bullshit i fucking hate the way its managed and how its nothing but a money black hole for my country (United States). Its 100% going to turn into another Molotov pact just that instead of getting invaded on both sides Germany Britain and the United States would just sacrifice everyone there to save the lives of our own soldiers. Its the reason France has never fell in line when it comes to NATO.

[@mountainjew1474]

​@@syriuszb8611Trump was yapping about NATO being obsolete last time he became president. After his first briefing at Pentagon he turned 180% on this issue. There is absolutely no way US abandons Europe. To many client states.

[@embreis2257]

@@syriuszb8611 don't worry too much. sure, another Trump presidency would kill NATO in its current form and probably snowball a lot of other bad things but what can we espect if tens of millions of US voters want this criminal as pres again and their supreme court doesn't stop this? as for Europe: if russia wins over Ukraine then we are all in hot water. but even if the US fails us, should russia send troops to a NATO country we Europeans will pull together - and much better than the British did in 1939. btw, the thing the Poles had in 1939 wasn't an alliance. those 'defensive arrangements' as you called them were nothing like NATO or anything else Poland has today. it was something more akin to the defensive arrangements Ukraine just signed with countries like Denmark, the UK, France, Germany etc or the Budapest Memorandum from 1994.

[@dennisyoung4631]

At 1:10 and after for a bit - “that’s *the rods and the ax!”*

[@h8GW]

Gotta love the Mario 64 call-out @ 17:54 -even if I fugging hate nintendo today-

[@Durgenheim]

“Arms and such” is a vastly superior descriptor for military expenditures than “defense”.

[@General12th]

"Arms, Etc."

[@senaniwet]

Thanks

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@felman87]

This wouldn't trigger Article 5 anymore than French troops dying in Africa did. Granted, just because Article 5 wasn't triggered, doesn't mean that other countries wouldn't be enraged at the loss of French life, especially if those soldiers were just administration or medical personnel there to help the wounded and they were callously targeted by Russians.

[@nei1mchugh]

"France around and find out" LOLz

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@jonathanstein5049]

You have no idea how large and high tech France's military is.

[@thc6664]

the frence army is a tiny little joke ....@@jonathanstein5049 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@thc6664]

well ..napoleon had a army...little micron have a nada army@@peterkay4122

[@leight420]

@@jonathanstein5049 xDD yeah against just some dudes in sandals with aks in africa its very advanced

[@martinhartecfc]

Is there any connection between Macron's rhetoric and the fact that Russia has helped to kick them out of the Sahel?

[@cynthiaherbst3909]

Possibly. Russia has inadvertently given France a reason to look at ways to give them a black eye directly, or as has been happening already, supplying self propelled guns that help turn more Russian soldiers and Russian equipment into past tense.

[@woob31]

The main connection is that Macron has no more credibility at all wrt French internal politics. His latest rhetoric is a dangerous and egotic diversion. He hopes a big mess would allow him to remain at the head of the country

[@Solomanmode-dmm]

​@@cynthiaherbst3909 Cant wait till you sheep get drafted lmao

[@michaellitten4538]

@@cynthiaherbst3909France giving Russia a black eye 🤣 more like a wedgie…

[@MN-vz8qm]

Being french, I don't think so. First because this would be a childish reason, that is not how states work. Moreover because isn't exactly a recent issue. Russia supporting coups in the Sahel started a decade ago, and France hasn't acted drastically against Russia for it, because geopolitics is a game of chess, not cage fight.

[@Wassermelonenbaum]

This Jeopardy board lfmaoooooo😂😂😂😂😂

[@asgerdanielsen567]

Good points about the parents and it all being transactional.

[@TheActionBastard]

"nothing can be ruled out" sounds about right for France. They're the same people who decided "nuclear warning shot" was a reasonable idea, so... f around and find out with them at your own risk.

[@SirAroace]

The play that seems to be getting traction is a Belarus tripwire, where the Belarus-Ukraine border and maybe some parts of the northern Russia-Ukraine border would be taken over by France, freeing up Ukrainian troop to move south

[@maxpower3990]

They could also be used for logistics, intel, air defence and aircraft ground crew. Far enough away from the front line that the danger is low but still helping out.

[@CyrilSneer123]

Then france should be prepared for thousands of their troops coming home in body bags.

[@stanspb763]

@@maxpower3990 How are the French even going to get near the border? Belarus and Russia have total command of their regions and 2000 troops and their3000 support staff will decimated in a day or two.

[@hresvelgr7193]

@@stanspb763 Simple. Russia won't attack them because they know if they do the French hit back.

[@simonescelsa]

​@@hresvelgr7193hit back with what?

[@dougwilson5408]

"Trip wire" aka "Plate Glass Theory"; see also Korea, South.

[@user-yf4up2px2u]

very interesting

[@minifolko]

Ah shit, here we go again. Round 3, Fight!

[@todo9633]

Ultimately, countries are only willing to give up a certain portion of their own equipment. Thus the obvious solution is to instead send their own militaries, equipped with their equipment, to do the fighting themselves.

[@peterkay4122]

savior is back Napoleon is back

[@texasray5237]

Or maybe negotiate peace terms and stop fighting.

[@BZValoche]

@@texasray5237 there are no negociations possible when the attacker demands that he keeps the stolen territories.

[@worldeconomicfella3228]

@texasray5237 Have you already signed peace deals with the Mexican cartels so they stop smuggling in migrants and drugs?

[@jamesgornall5731]

​@@BZValochedo you live there? If so, fair enough but otherwise how does it matter to you? Is it important enough to put your family's life on the line? Risking worldwide nuclear holocaust?

[@airborneranger-ret]

The $64 point - France has no treaty obligations for this. And NATO doesn't either. Internationally, you don't just send in trooops "just because".

[@nicolasedelbruck3950]

Thx. As a french, I found this video very interesting

[@richbattaglia5350]

I give the French a lot of crap for being French. But they make for good warriors.

[@DeepFinger-UA]

Merci 🙏🏼

[@IncognitoActivado]

Cope harder. XD

[@davidford3115]

Maybe under the Bourbons, but modern France still leaves much to be desired.

[@baguettelauncher8839]

americans in the other hand are really bad and cocky for so little reasons

[@Josep_Hernandez_Lujan]

They have great rifles: Never used and only dropped once

[@DickHolman]

The framework for EU military action is Eurocorps. Please discuss the scenario where Eurocorps troops are deployed in Ukraine, I think you'll highlight things I've missed in my thinking.

[@crowbar9566]

No one is interested, NATO has that covered.

[@ninny65]

A French intervention *might* work but at what cost. You would have two great powers effectively at war (France and Russia) as well as two Permanent Security Council members at war. This would be unprecedented since the end of WW2 and would arguably be a larger escalation than Russia invading Ukraine itself. Not only is it an escalation, but it sets a precedent until the end of time that two great powers can wage war on each other. Not even to mention the nuclear factor

[@SeArCh4DrEaMz]

One small difference though, France was indeed the fourth country after the UK to dev nuclear weapons but unlike the British, they developed their own nuclear industry and nuclear weapons, and are not placed in a position of subservience to the Americans and ask daddy if it is okay to use nukes or not, and if they can have the key... Funny how the little englanders are all about sovereignty and democracy when it comes to the EU but when it comes to their overlords(past and present) there's not even whisper about it!

[@Randomnameguy]

Rent free

[@anthonykaiser974]

Dude, only Russian trolls equate American hegemony to Russian practice.

[@columnal8067]

Rent free

[@moritamikamikara3879]

Rent free

[@americanroyalist6905]

im from mexico and even i know this isn’t true good try thoe russian

[@robertlavery6896]

I'd also like to see the Charles De Gaulle in the black sea, just flex on the Russians.

[@maxpower3990]

I doubt the Turks want to see it sailing past Istanbul. The last time the French navy was in this area they were going to shell it.

[@robertlavery6896]

@@maxpower3990 just wishful thinking man, turkey needs to get with the program.

[@lakota5688]

@robertlavery6896 The answer is in the Montreux Convention ...

[@boskor777]

Considering France said they would back Greece in a potential conflict with Turkiye, that seems unlikely for now.

[@phueal]

Yeah… You remember Ukraine sinking a good chunk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet using converted jet skis? The only reason Russia isn’t doing the same is because Ukraine doesn’t have a fleet to sink. Putting the CDG in the Black Sea wouldn’t so much be a deterrent as a massive trophy which Russia would definitely sink on day 1 of a conflict with France.

[@sturlamolden]

Just skip to the end. “I am here to tell you I don’t know.” Good. Leave it at that.

[@felixbeth6340]

Also you shouldn't forget that frances nuclear doctrin is a warning shot not a response strike so it's a little more spicy

[@Ninnoa]

Everything that was mentioned so far that met strong reaction has later happened, leopard tenks, patriot, rocket lunchers etc. So i am sure that also troops will go in, sooner or later.

[@chloeholmes4641]

They are still crying about the f-16's which is hilarious! So yeah, putin is bluffing, call him out and make him think twice about invading another democratic country, otherwise the us should've triggered article 5 during the battle of conaco fields!

[@loukreu]

Sad but true, and all the former were destroyed, such will be the case with troops. The real question is how long Western governments will persist.

[@Prometheus-Unbound]

France has a military agreement with Moldavia. Moldavia has a rebel province in Transdniestria (and one of the largest depots of Soviet calibre ammunition in the world) - maybe Macron can bring Transdniestria into the fold and Moldavia donate the ammo to Ukraine. Just a thought.

[@n3clar]

Transniatria will fall in one day!

[@carloshour8263]

Transnistria aiding the fight against mother Russia? Doubtful

[@squirrel287]

If France wins in Ukraine they will deal with transnistria and then help Armenia protect or take back its territories.

[@simonescelsa]

​@@squirrel287yes if donkeys fly, you would not need to worry about bird poop

[@poldi2233]

As soon as French troops landed in Moldavia Putin would declare reunification with Transnistria

[@StephaneCalabrese]

One very important thing though: France has nuclear bombs and they are not under NATO command. If Russia strikes France, France won't need NATO to retaliate.

[@patrickfitzgerald6081]

Niccolo Machiavelli was writing about integrity. A city ruler had promised another ruler he would provide soldiers if the second city were attacked. Buddy decides to start the conflict and is upset when he doesn't get the soldiers. Machiavelli approved. The ruler had followed the word of the agreement. A reputation for integrity has great value, people will lend you money and support. But true integrity is a costly luxury that a prince cannot afford.

[@simula152]

William, can you make a video about why a Volunteer/Expeditionary force a la Condor Legion isn't feasible or being done?

[@rebeccathera525]

It seems like a game! I don’t think that France will be sending any troops! However, Putting and his government are panicking that’s a good thing

[@tinnasell4161]

They will not panic forever. Fear tends to disappear when nothing happens. France will have to act on its words, or accept the fact that any effect from the current threat will not last long.

[@YUDNSAY]

I think the last thing taking place in Putin, and his government is 'panic'.

[@Crashed131963]

Putin gets scared easily . When Wagger look like it was heading to Moscow Putin ordered the main highways have tank trenches dug up across them .

[@user-ek9es5qz2f]

Russia just stated they now considder it a war and not a special military operation. They will for starters send a new army group containing 4 divisions around 200.000 men.

[@spamcan9208]

I highly doubt Putin is panicking based on Macron's statements. Talk is cheap, even more so when the West established a pattern of sounding tough and creating red lines, only to back down from enforcing consequences because it was the easy way out at the time politically. However I don't think these statements were meant for putin. They were meant for Europe. It tells Germany, especially weak willed Scholz, that the time of easy solutions and a short conflict are over and the consequences of a fallen Ukraine are dire. It signals to the Baltics and Poland that France finally agrees with the alarm bells they've ringing since Feb 2022. And finally, it implies thinking that America will come to Europe's rescue is over. We are no longer the reliable partner we once were for 70+ years. Thank you, republicans.

[@user-ic2kk5vf4o]

In W W 2 , it was the spies in the field for the Allies that tip the balance as to : where and what is the enemy planning....🤔

[@yawnandjokeoh]

ABBA’s Waterloo plays in my mind

[@dogsarentpeople]

As a German, the most interesting part of this video is, that the newspapers at 00:25 are in German

[@ommsterlitz1805]

How about the part of Nord Stream 2 paid by Germany sunk by Ukrainians ?

[@javierperez-xo8mr]

@@ommsterlitz1805 ukranians are not smart enough to do that, it came from england

[@embreis2257]

the font suggests this is probably the _Bonner General Anzeiger_ . it looks like stock image Mr Spaniel has bought some time ago as he used it quite few times since in his videos (more than 5 times already)

[@nimmha6708]

@@ommsterlitz1805 How did you receive the evidence for this? On a russian telegram page and it's video's or actual investigation ?

[@NmaeUnavailablesigh]

One thought I've had on how to do this would be for NATO troops to be stationed along areas where there isn't active fighting (like the Ukraine-Belarus border), allowing Ukraine to move its defensive forces away from those areas to the frontlines where they're needed

[@REALLYRANDOMREVIEW5]

love the logic preziel 🤣 it is an offensive move even though for a defensive purpose but they will not comply with their own doctrine they will tweek, excuse and adjust unfortunately

[@_De_Ku_]

Hi William, I have a Question. If Ukraine asked Europe for Help in 2014 when the „Little Green Men“ invaded Crimea, why couldn‘t or didn‘t Europe send Soldiers? Russia denied that these „Aliens“ are actual Russian Forces. So it would not have been a European (NATO) Force against a Russian Force. I mean Russia would have needed to admit that those in fact were Russian Solderiers in order not to escalate the Situation. Of course Russia would have made its big Propaganda Move like „NATO invading Ukraine“. But that would have been hard to explain given the Invasion of CRIMEA by little green Men. I truly believe that 2014 was the Time to act for Europe or actually NATO. I would really love a Analysis of that from you… Thank you for your great Videos. I just bought a Book: „What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War?“ because i really like you Analysis. Keep up the good work. Greetings from Hamburg - Germany Deniz

[@UGNAvalon]

-France putting its finger on the safety after remembering what happened in WW2. -Poland, also remembering what happened in WW2: Seriously tho, now I’m curious what a Polish “intervention” would look like, since they have a bigger beef with Russia. 😅

[@CaptainDangeax]

But Poland doesn't have nukes

[@Spartan0430]

@@CaptainDangeax poland doesn't really need nukes. if russia nukes poland, that's just gonna escalate things dramatically. everything becomes far far worse for russia if nukes ever get used.

[@UGNAvalon]

@@CaptainDangeax And besides, where were nukes ever used in the scenarios given in this video (aside from "general deterrence" & "worst case scenario") ?

[@CaptainDangeax]

@@UGNAvalon grow up kiddo. Nukes are the ultimate card no one wants to play, but the big difference between getting invaded and not getting invaded

[@filippopotame3579]

​@@CaptainDangeaxthey actually do, as a NATO member there are American nukes in Poland.

[@fernandoalegria4240]

Kudos to France for stepping up. France helped secure the birth of our nation, let's hope they fill the void our Fascist GOP has created.

[@markotoshich7676]

And US democrats can not forgive Russia for being the only European country to support the Union(North, Republicans) in 1860's Civil War... Just FYI google which party supported slavery, segregation, founded the clan, enacted 1993 draconian law that imprisoned large numbers of people in the US in last 3 decades and blamed the other side for ALL of it. There is reason why democrats are supported by young as well as foreigners and that reason is lack of knowledge. US is great country and that is thanks to the US constitution, the document that provided clear freedoms and rights to every individual living in the US. Notice who is attacking 1st and 2nd amendments, notice who tries. to abuse the court system, notice who promotes disorder within the cities they govern...

[@aar0n709]

Lol nato clown