China's deflation risk 'is real,' JPMorgan economist says

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CNBC International News

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 126

@janaka861 9 ай бұрын

Can’t believe Chinese numbers…

@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 9 ай бұрын

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing. 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? .... Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

@jzzzxxx 9 ай бұрын

@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln The Chinese stock market today is exactly where it was in 2007. 900M people's income lower than where they were when adjusted for inflation.

@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 9 ай бұрын

@@jzzzxxx You are a fool... 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 Use your brain 🙈🙈🙈🙈

@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 9 ай бұрын

@@jzzzxxx Jinxed Murmur GOD HAS ALWAYS LOVED CHINA AND HAS ALWAYS BLESSED CHINA FOREVER. ✝️🇨🇳☯️🙏🙏🙏☯️🇨🇳✝️ ✝️ GOD BLESS CHINA ✝️

@jzzzxxx 9 ай бұрын

@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln God is illegal in China

@eric9069 9 ай бұрын

China exports goods to the world. If most countries are in serious inflation. The deflation could benefit the expansion of expoerts.

@nntflow7058 9 ай бұрын

True, but countries like Mexico, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc. are competing with China. If China goods became cheaper, billions of people from those countries would suffer tremendously.

@0rbital 9 ай бұрын

if cheap products from china flood the market, it would hurt the domestic manufacturing and consumption, which would lead to downsizing of companies and even closure of some, resulting in job loses then even less domestic consumption... And it is exactly for these reasons that the developed industrial economies would impose tariffs on chinese exports

@nntflow7058 9 ай бұрын

@@0rbital Not just developed countries. Developing countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, India and Mexico already done so.

@strongbrain3128 9 ай бұрын

If prices of products from China are high, China is the source of global inflation; If prices of products from China are low, China causes the suffering of third world people; If prices of products from China are flat, China is the source of global economic stagnation; In other words, China is always the scapegoat of world's problems. Damned if China do, and Damned if China don't.

@samanthajones4877 9 ай бұрын

The US inflation is even more real.

@CindySorenson-r4m 9 ай бұрын

Deflation is bad, because it harms businesses & they will flee to other countries where the inflation is higher, which gives them a higher return on their investments. For example, businesses are fleeing Vietnam, Mexico right now. Many chose to return to America, because it's currently the best of both worlds. This was caused by a catastrophic failure of the CCP's financial administration, and exacerbated by US tariffs.

@jzzzxxx 9 ай бұрын

What are you talking about, net FDI to Vietnam is at all time high, 32% increase in 2023 YoY (from prev year's already all time high). The first 3 quarters of FDI to Mexico 2023 was nearly as much as FY 2022. Mexico replaced China as the largest exporter to US since 2022.

@Mister_Rooster 9 ай бұрын

Do you realize the CCP been moving business to Mexico for like 10 years plus already , they’re 10 years ahead of the west

@youwaiyap2708 9 ай бұрын

Yeah..... Daydreaming is certainly Free, keep Dreaming 🥳🥳

@TheArtofWarChina 9 ай бұрын

US exports inflation is good, China exports deflation is bad for the world. What kind of logic is that?!

@ctrl-shift-run8681 9 ай бұрын

Deflation is one thing but is quality of life improving?

@seymorefact4333 9 ай бұрын

Safer and cleaner there than here! 😭 the US INFLATION is a compounding TAXATION and compounding THEFT OF OUR RETIREMENT! 🤬😭. ADD $36 Trillion deficit by end of year means MORE TAXES for me and great great great great grandkids!

@nntflow7058 9 ай бұрын

No, cause companies actually cut wages down.

@thomasrogers9146 9 ай бұрын

THE CHINESE HAVE SAID THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET. THEY WANT AN ECONOMY BASED ON SLOW AND STEADY GROWTH. AND ECONOMY THAT BENEFITS EVERY CHINESE CITIZENS NOT JUST WESTERN INVESTORS.

@jonasoffice9853 9 ай бұрын

The guy keep saying there is a gap between market expectation and the government. Suck it up boy! China will be China and do it the Chinese way.

@hillerm 9 ай бұрын

Western investors aren’t allowed to buy stocks on the main Chinese exchanges.

@hillerm 9 ай бұрын

Also, if real estate is dead, and the stock market is a dumpster fire, where are Chinese people supposed to invest their money?

@pablosskates7067 9 ай бұрын

Copium lmao

@ssuwandi3240 9 ай бұрын

Infrastructure investment is more important than stocks casino or warfare Ukraine

@whitemoon5752 9 ай бұрын

The XJP Chinese government team is very weak on PR and communication. This is something really needs to be improved. They are doing everything right but not managing expectations through communication which is the biggest drawback.

@Andy-P 9 ай бұрын

Yea, westerners don't fall for CCP propaganda. They have choice unlike the Chinese

@youwaiyap2708 9 ай бұрын

Really, they don't give a damn to Western media who will create whatever narratives to push the Western agenda? 🤣🤣

@ChinaSongsCollection 9 ай бұрын

@3:34. I don't see why that would be a problem. 5% of China's 🇨🇳 GDP is MORE THAN the entire GDP of Poland 🇵🇱 That is, China is adding another Poland 🇵🇱 to itself. Poland has 38 million people!! 38 million!! So what is the big deal of adding just a mere 12 million jobs.

@vissapragadasatyanarayana2750 9 ай бұрын

So you believe CCP data?😅

@ChinaSongsCollection 9 ай бұрын

@@vissapragadasatyanarayana2750 No, this is not what China is saying. This is what this video host is saying, which seems to be agreed to by the JPMorgan guy. But if you don't believe JPMorgan, you can take the IMF forecast of 4.6% instead if you want. That would STILL be close to Poland's entire GDP.

@PlanetCHINA.1 9 ай бұрын

@@vissapragadasatyanarayana2750so you believe your data? We don't either

@youwaiyap2708 9 ай бұрын

@@ChinaSongsCollection well, CNBC need to put JP Morgan and a Chinese ethnic analyst to make the narrative more believable? Anyway, it's still CNBC's narrative which they which to push and that's surely not what the Chinese govt set out to do? Who care about global investors (e.g. putting $$ into their pocket) when the govt is substantially serving 1.4b ppl? 😬😬😂😂

@Chryeon 9 ай бұрын

the US debt risk is even extremely real!!!

@bullpup1337 9 ай бұрын

because deflation leads to an economic death spiral. GDP growth is just a number - if you really WANT that number to go up (why?) you can get there - just increase debt and build infrastructure and houses wherever. It doesn’t mean the economy is healthy. GDP growth is a very bad proxy for that, especially when its a target, not an (independent) observation

@Noommie-Loves-Nio 9 ай бұрын

I believe in Chinese numbers than Chase analysts.

@chopinmack5418 9 ай бұрын

Don't worry about China ! They are working on high value items now w/ unmanned robots --- EV Cars , Battery Storage Systems , Green energy / Solar energy , High speed trains , Huge Shipbuilding industries ...... You will see another Economy Peak in China in the next 2 - 3 years .

@MD97531 9 ай бұрын

They’ll go through 2-3 lost decades and are done

@johnloader8611 9 ай бұрын

No way will those sexy hi-tech industries create enough jobs to replace the millions of jobs which were pouring concrete and making cheap consumer goods for the last 30yrs.

@MD97531 9 ай бұрын

@@johnloader8611 looks like the plan is 1bn people making EV cars 😂

@zaitinmak5671 9 ай бұрын

@@MD97531As a reference, Japan currently has about 6 million people working in the Cars related industries ....

@nobigdealllll 9 ай бұрын

No. They're worrying and that's why they ban

@Manchesterkoi 9 ай бұрын

Chinese exports will be expensive then surely that will hurt the economy more

@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 9 ай бұрын

@ssuwandi3240 9 ай бұрын

No. The treason is two Tiered go to market domestic vs import prices.. overstocks likely get sold fast in Temu. .

@youwaiyap2708 9 ай бұрын

@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 👍👍😁😁

@boe4534 9 ай бұрын

中国已经陷入了很严重的通缩，生产过剩，企业制造出来的东西卖不掉，为保就业，还要不停生产，民间普遍缺乏消费动机和消费能力，不过这不是最严重的，老龄化社会的加速来临，会进一步让消费雪上加霜，可以说，中国已经步入之前日本经历的通缩陷进。

@privacyhelp 9 ай бұрын

china: deflation and gdp 5.2% is bad u.s: inflation and gdp 3.1% is amazing and superb american economists cant get their heads straight 🤣🤣🤡🤡

@nntflow7058 9 ай бұрын

3.1% growth based on $20,000-$30,000 average yearly income in the US. 5.2% growth is based on $6,000-$7,000 yearly income in China. Now you do the math.

@privacyhelp 9 ай бұрын

@@nntflow7058 with $7k in china you can live better than having $30k in the u.s

@ssuwandi3240 9 ай бұрын

Look.. am sure American prosperous Boomers will splurge and spend like the last chances to power up Resident Joe's low approval 😊 The rest of Gen seems focused to get united for the next elected President.

@mateunlock2023 9 ай бұрын

@@privacyhelp it is true

@youwaiyap2708 9 ай бұрын

Well.... the neocons hand out scripts for these media to comply? 😬😬

@seymorefact4333 9 ай бұрын

😭 the US INFLATION is a compounding TAXATION and compounding THEFT OF OUR RETIREMENT! 🤬😭. ADD $36 Trillion deficit by end of year means MORE TAXES for me and great great great great grandkids!

@eliso5973 9 ай бұрын

Good, US investors should walk away from China, go now, and forever. 😂

@outerspace8158 9 ай бұрын

What china needs is a US small business come in China

@Golfin-s1u 9 ай бұрын

In the past 20 years, 90% of American capital in China has left every year.

@eliso5973 9 ай бұрын

@@Golfin-s1u good, keep doing that.

@tannhaeuserx464 9 ай бұрын

Yeah, deflation might be real, but why is it a risk? Why is deflation bad when the economy is projected to grow by 5%?

@ryanwalters6184 9 ай бұрын

Because you can make GPD by digging holes and filling them. Deflation is dangerous because once the mindset becomes an entrenched consumer will not spend money.

@jodu626 9 ай бұрын

it ain’t gonna grow 5%.

@jonasoffice9853 9 ай бұрын

@@ryanwalters6184 Try digging holes for 50 years like China and see whats happens to your country.

@hillerm 9 ай бұрын

Once deflation sets in, consumers delay purchases out of hope that the prices will go down later, which hurts the economy.

@nntflow7058 9 ай бұрын

For average chinese citizens, this would mean lower wages and less jobs available.

@strongbrain3128 9 ай бұрын

No direct foreign investments in China? That is because US government and EU have banned such acts, and want to punish anyone who wants to do FDI in China. It is not an issue with China, but an issue of decoupling.

@Richard-s7m 9 ай бұрын

Deflation in China is more related to the oversupply of pork,which is a staple meat of Chinese,food price comprise 25% composition of deflation or inflation index basket.If the government stop the oversupply of pork then deflation would be gone.

@MD97531 9 ай бұрын

Utter drivel

@ssuwandi3240 9 ай бұрын

Right on the contrary Americans can't afford Inflationary pork price gauging.. . Because greed was misled thru year over year inflation instead of cumulative inflation since COVID.

@cathode5115 9 ай бұрын

Wrong

@yongchen8204 9 ай бұрын

deflation is good when most countries are still facing 6% to 100% inflation rate for the last 4 years. too much printing money fuel the world inflation makes life difficult for the poorest countries in the world. even UK is suffering double digit inflation with stagnant wage and its economy is in recession and this expert think Uk is doing better than china. deflation makes goods and services cheaper when everything is going up in the world during and after covid pandemic.

@MD97531 9 ай бұрын

Hahaha that’s a new take: deflation is good. Classic

@hillerm 9 ай бұрын

You are seriously ignorant.