China's Political Risks, Modular Reactors & Debt Solutions | David M. Hay

Grant Williams connected me with Evergreen Gavekal CIO David Hay many years ago,
calling him “one of the good guys.”
In this interview, David and I unpack the future of nuclear energy and oil & gas investing,
along with the trouble in China’s stock and real estate markets.
David adds to my long list of reasons why China is un-investable right now. He also
shares a specific investing signal we should all watch-and deems it “the most
important thing” in our conversation. It’s a technique endorsed by Paul Tudor J ones.
You will also hear about the opportunities David sees in Japan, the ticker of an insurance
company David likes right now, and why he’s personally invested in molten salt small
nuclear reactors.
For all of us following the nuclear energy revival, David recommends reading The First
Nuclear Era: The Life and Times of a Technological Fixer by Alvin M. Weinberg.
David Hay writes a Substack called “Haywire.” He’s also published a book on Substack
called Bubble 3.0.
Go here to learn more about David Hay:
evergreengavekal.com/team/dav...
Get David Hay’s Substack “Haymaker” here:
haymaker.substack.com
Go here to subscribe to Global Macro Update:
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Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn:
/ ed-d-agostino-415475296
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Time stamps:
00:00 - Introduction
04:52 - The third bubble
08:17 - The future of oil and gas investing
16:01 - Opportunities in nuclear energy
19:25 - The economics of small nuclear reactors
23:01 - More reasons not to invest in China
28:18 - What could trigger a rally in China’s markets?
31:27 - Solutions to the US deficit

[@d.j.walker3671]

I really appreciate the comment about estate tax and loopholes. That is the type of thing brought up by somebody sincerely concerned rather than just scoring political points.

[@KeepYourHead899]

David Hay seemed like a down to earth guy. He had a lot of insightful observations but didn't act or talk like he knew everything. I have wondered about the history of Evergreen Gavekal and Gavekal Research. This is also the second time today I heard about molten salt fission reactors so I am going to do a little more research. There is a Danish company working on these small reactors also.

[@dwr0610]

HK/China/Asia is plenty investible, forget about indexes, you need to find an active manager who can pick stocks. The indexes cannot grow earnings, but plenty of companies can grow, especially for 2H23 and 2024. High yields will support these markets, now is a great time to think about Asia.

[@greggpon7466]

For rhe record China will build enough solar to replace 8% of the oil it uses every year for the forseable future.

[@d.j.walker3671]

I'm only six minutes in, and this guest is clearly thoughtful, but he seems to be ignoring actual earnings when talking about how we're in a bubble. We might be, but earnings are earnings.

[@alang8850]

Doombergs view of Natural Gas is much more cogent given all the NGL production in the US, Canada, Russia and Qatar's increase in NGL. Saudis later in decade.

[@user-ed9so2rb4k]

What political risks are you talking about?