Ohio State vs Indiana - Does Our Model Agree With Vegas?

[@pocketrealitty]

As a Buckeye fan. Even though I hope it’s a good game, I’m not sure my blood pressure can handle more games like that. 😂

[@Bondokill]

Exercise regularly and est less trans fats

[@jangorh]

Buckeye fan here. Howard has been phenomenal against pressure this year. Tremendous pocket awareness and movement. That alone has saved probably 10-15 sacks. Short and intermediate accuracy fantastic. Just needs to pull the trigger more on the deep ball.

[@Augustus-b3q]

He hasn't played against anyone like Kamara before....

[@gaminglime240]

@@Augustus-b3q abdul carter ? casual

[@Augustus-b3q]

@@gaminglime240 ???????????

[@LivinTheDream-z1s]

@@Augustus-b3q😂

[@andrewgygi1608]

@@Augustus-b3qCarter is a first round pick at defensive end

[@mcskeet8067]

Wake up, babe. The nerds posted already!

[@jangorh]

It’ll be typical Buckeye game. Indiana will keep it close-ish first half by eating up a bunch of clock and ball control. OSU D will bend not break. 2nd half Bucks pull away as Indiana runs out of steam and tricks. 31-13 Bucks

[@VisceralCarbon]

Same could be said for Ohio St. Indiana run defense is top tier.

[@jangorh]

@ Ohio State has arguably the best running back duo in the country, albeit currently behind a banged up oline. Unfortunately for Indiana, Ohio State also has arguably the deepest WR room in the country as well.

[@bluejayway478]

bro is delusional

[@charlesfriebis7954]

@@VisceralCarbon They have not played a team with all around talent like the Buckeyes. The best running attack they have faced is mishigan and we know how strong they are at passing. Long story shirt, if IU tries to load the box, the Buckeyes should have a down field passing explosion.

[@jordankinnard3368]

Hey College football nerds, love the show. Longtime bucks fan here; one thing I thought could be a confounding variable, like josh said, is OSU's tendency to start slow. Northwestern almost made it a game by taking advantage of that, but osu defense began to figure them out and the run game was established. I think OSU at home (if the crowd really helps) and being battle tested will give this team a slight edge. If OSU dictates the pace, it could get out of hand. It also could be a rock fight, but i think that veteran play and the varied looks on defense make the difference. I like OSU 24-17.

[@greenman5255]

I think it will be a close 1st half, but Ohio State will grind them down in the 3rd quarter (like ichigan did) and pull away comfortably. Ohio State: 38 and Indiana: 23

[@Number3boyz]

I agree with this.

[@Jahonecanoe]

Ohio state is not ready for Iu defense

[@ChimichangaGuy]

​@Jahonecanoe Indiana hasn't played a team with a top 50 offense. They almost lost to a Michigan team whose offense is outside the top 100

[@gaminglime240]

@@Jahonecanoe😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@brighamanderson4577]

@@ChimichangaGuyyou guys almost lost to Nebraska at home 😂

[@shayneh8668]

IMO, depth is the issue for IU. Ohio State has a solid rotation on the D-line. They'll be a lot fresher in the second half. If Ohio State doesn't turn the ball over, I think they win going away. If they do and let IU hang around, I still think Ohio State guts out the W. They had a pick 6 and fumble inside their own 5 against Penn State on the road and still won.

[@Dawg-Bone]

This game SCREAMS 2021 Ohio State vs. Michigan State. It’ll be closer than that, but it won’t be close at all. Ohio State all the way.

[@slibertas1996]

It’s Indiana vs Ohio State 2020 except Indiana is gonna win it this time

[@thomastaylor1147]

Ryan Day will get them ready and trust me, they will focus on this game. Go Buckeyes 😎

[@davidwelsh8026]

It won’t matter, Indiana will own the Shoe on Sat.

[@austintacius]

can tell from the game plan against NW that Indiana was the focus last week and this week from the coaches. this was evident against Nebraska the week before Penn State as well.

[@micahpg3407]

I love the over in this game, and project it above the key of 55. ~OSU 34-24 given OSU's struggle with line yards and it being a struggle of a spot.

[@davidwalker9035]

You guys have a lot of respect for Ohio State. I am an OSU fan, and I don't even have the same level of respect.

[@davidwelsh8026]

OSU will have big trouble on Sat.

[@bigike33]

@@davidwelsh8026in the first half, yes. Will still be a 2 or 3 score win the bucks

[@nickb7089]

Great analysis. As an IU fan I hope both of you are wrong but I agree with most of the points being made. I think the thing about this game is there are a lot of unknowns. In retrospect it will all make sense but right now all we can do is take a guess at things.

[@pestyoverlord]

I think Indiana is outclassed from the start. Ohio 35 Indiana 17

[@thatguy3493]

The real question is, if you haven’t played a high caliber opponent all season are you really going to be ready for a high caliber opponent? Not trying to throw shade on Indiana but when you play other top notch teams they will force you to face your weaknesses. Weaker opponents won’t challenge you enough for that and can definitely cause blinders and over confidence.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

We've argued for a while that a lot of the Big Ten (specifically OSU) woes vs the SEC in big bowl games wasn't that the SEC was so much better, it's that they were so much more battle-tested. It's tough to play a bunch of merely average competition and then get stressed in a totally different way vs an elite who already had those tests and made adjustments from it.

[@chadthornsberry1342]

This is an interesting game. IU seems to have some good things going but is untested against an elite team. Just remember that OSU was one second away from being able to kick a GW FG at Autzen…that is also considering the terrible OPI called on Smith. IU’s secondary is suspect though. That is not good when OSU’s true power comes from their ability to stretch the field. Expect Howard to attack IU deep early. If OSU gets a 2 TD lead on IU it will be over. IU MUST keep this close throughout or they will eventually be over run by OSU. IU must also try not to get into a track meet with OSU. NW had the right idea which is to methodically move the ball down the field and eat clock but the downside is OSU’s D becomes stronger the closer you get to the end zone. I like the model here but I am giving OSU 27-IU 14. IU can’t afford FGs and will likely turn the ball over a couple of times on downs.

[@hijj7676]

Calling this game or even betting on it is a fool's errand. IU's QB has never been in a game of this magnitude. Heck their whole team and most of the coaching staff has never been in a game like this. How they respond is anybody's guess.

[@brandonlee2674]

Penn State was blown out? I guess making up any narrative contrary to facts are only way to support you flimsy theory.

[@brettk9316]

They really said that? I just skip to their lame predictions as they talk a lot of BS?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

We said they’ve been blown out in similar games in prior years. For 6 years in a row Penn State has played the eventual Big Ten champ and lost by 2+ scores. It’s a major trend.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

It’s pretty rich to call our discussions BS when you don’t even listen to it.

[@Donny_DeVito]

@@brettk9316weird way to say “I don’t listen to their opinions because I have a 10 second attention span, have biases that they don’t feed into and am not intelligent enough to have a critical conversation about teams I like”

[@gregjacksun]

@@Donny_DeVito LOL

[@lukekrell5665]

I think Indiana could really give my Buckeyes trouble. If Ohio State takes a quarter or two off offensively or gives them any free points they could definitely beat us. But I am optimistic we will get an A game from the Buckeyes. Ohio State 34-24

[@pocketrealitty]

At this point, Ohio State and Will Howard are super battle tested. Hoosiers, not so much.

[@mrillmakeit]

Totally agree here. Expecting it to be competitive throughout. Depth has to be a weapon. One of biggest advantages. We saw them wear down in the 2nd half of the michigan game..but they're now coming off a bye, so I expect this to be a tough one.

[@AmericaFirst47]

Close first half, then honestly think the second half the Buckeyes will take off. 35-17

[@truthseeker3063]

Indiana and OSU have a common opponent, Nebraska. Results: IU vs NEB: 56-7, OSU vs NEB: 21-17 Hmmm... i think IUs close game with Michigan plus 2-week break, puts IU in a great position to go beat OSU. The coaching grist available after the Michigan game is phenomenal. They will be well rested and ready to go!

[@garysalyers7611]

Northwestern is also common opponent. Indiana was ahead by 7 going into the fourth quarter and NU scored 24 points. OSU only allowed 7 and was comfortably ahead by the second possession of the third quarter. Nebraska is an outlier. Let it go.

[@aaronchaney1123]

These common opponent comparisons never pan out to be worthwhile.

[@davidwelsh8026]

Indiana is better than PS. They will upset OSU.

[@garryrobinson5695]

@@davidwelsh8026I’ll be back here after the game to see if you’re wrong in which I think you are wrong.

[@chadthornsberry1342]

In regards to the Neb-OSU game, OSU was also trying to replace key players on the O-line. They struggled but the next game against PSU they figured it out.

[@matthewbrown3133]

I'm a number nerd too, so I decided to go through the CFB Nerds preview videos and do some calculations. Of the 15 full game previews this season, Daniel is 9-6 SU and Josh is 11-4 SU. For the 9 SEC divisional games, that breaks down to Daniel (5-4 SU) and Josh (7-2 SU). For the 3 Big 10 divisional games, that breaks down to Daniel and Josh both 1-2 SU. We can then look at error in two ways. First is absolute point differential - that is, if you say Team A is winning by 10, and they lose by 4, your absolute error is 14. The second is signed - if you say Team A is winning by 10, and they lose by 4, your signed error is -14 (and positive if you predict the correct winner by not enough). We'll focus on conference games, since OOC games are early in the season before we know what teams will look like. For SEC games, the absolute/signed error for Daniel is 14.89/-5.11 and Josh is 11.22/5.22. If we remove the anomaly of the Bama-LSU game, those numbers drop to Daniel (12.75/-1.75) and Josh (9.5/2.75). For Big 10 games, these errors come out to Daniel (7.67/-7.67) and Josh (6.67/0). Putting this all together, this tells us that Josh and Daniel are doing relatively well, but struggle to predict larger margins of victory (as I think most of do, in otherwise seemingly competitive matchups). In SEC matchups, Daniel tends to slightly favor the wrong team, whereas Josh tends to slightly favor the right team (but not by enough). In Big Ten matchups, Josh again tends to favor the incorrect team, whereas Josh generally favors the right team. The only time in ANY of the 15 previews that either has overestimated a predicted winner is Josh, favoring OSU by 17 pts over PSU (when they only won by 7). In the context of this Indiana-OSU matchup, these stats would suggest that this is going to be a close game where Indiana should be within one score of OSU (all other factors held constant). Personally I agree with Daniel - I think Indiana has yet to see a defense anywhere near the level of OSU (that Michigan game was a sneak peak of potential struggles), and I think their prolific offensive output will come to a screeching halt. But we'll see - that's why we play the games!

[@douglascarlson9006]

This was excellent - I just SUBBED! ... I've grown tired of just raw rational commentary, I now prefer logical speculation based on metrics ...

[@AngryOtter614]

Can't wait to see Indiana brought back to reality.

[@ethanpinafitness]

Curious to see if you can pull the numbers pre Michigan game for Indiana?

[@parkeranderson5990]

If Indiana ends up winning, I think it can be chalked up to something like 2022 TCU, 2023 Washington, where a spreadsheet can’t possibly give a rating to something like culture, grit, and the power of belief and hope. And so teams like those I mentioned end up being undervalued by models and power rankings

[@andycockrum1212]

Or it could be like Michigan 2023. I love that people are already making excuses that Indiana still isn’t good even if we beat Ohio state

[@donaldshotts4429]

​@@andycockrum1212 He's just trying to say coaching, experience, grit, etc can make up for some athletic disadvantages. IU is better then people think though. SEC fans think we're trash. OS fans think we're trash. IU is pretty damn good in the trenches and OS doesn't have the firepower they had with Fields or Stroud. They only scored 31 on Northwestern and one drive started at the 1. Their def is solid though. IU has to jump out and play from ahead

[@bobwild-e8r]

@@donaldshotts4429 you have no idea what you are getting into this week, Ohio State's OLine is again Elite and their Defensive front is ranked #2 in sacks, they have no weakness. Ohio State would have to make numerous mistakes to lose to Indiana, that offense with those WR's and those RB's is like nothing you have seen. Ask Penn State about the line in the trenches. you had 18 yards in the 2nd half vs a very average Michigan team. Another thing Experience, Ohio State plays in games like this all the time or even bigger games, This is the biggest game in Indiana 's History.

[@andrewgygi1608]

@@andycockrum1212good is relative. They’re not talented, which makes their ceiling lower

[@Number3boyz]

@@andycockrum1212 huge difference Indiana isn’t under investigation for cheating.

[@cabe115]

Give me OSU 38 - IU 24. I don’t trust IU’s run game against the best run defense in the country. I trust OSU’s ability to run the ball on anyone. Expect IU to get a couple big plays against our corners, but be rather limited otherwise. Howard and Co. will get cruising late, and stretch a close game to two scores in the second half. I think IU is legit, and I might take them if the game were played in one half. Overall, I think the depth of talent and second half adjustments OSU always comes out with are the difference. Regardless, if this is the season WIndiana pulls one out on us, I won’t be upset. I’ll pull for them the rest of the way, and be happy beating tcun and maybe getting in the playoffs.

[@MrRjsnowden]

Ok be honest who had this game circled as a "big game" at the start of the season?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Nobody. That's the beauty of CFB

[@terriswilson4811]

Ohio State, respects Indiana, and the Buckeyes, will be ready!

[@thedirtiestbradfordbradfor6181]

Buckeye fan here.Great coaches tend to win when given 2 weeks to prepare.Along with the big contract he just signed and IU having to listen to it for 2 weeks on how they’re gonna get their asses kicked I expect IU to be more than ready.Cignetti will use the Michigan game to his advantage.OSU will get out coached as usual. I have no clue who wins this,but if OSU wins it will be on talent alone.I hope I’m wrong.

[@avi7278]

I feel like Josh greatly exaggerates in regards to most of his comments about Ohio State this year. Not sure why that is, but it's definitely noticeable. Early in the year he got called out on it, and to his credit, admitted he was wrong, but the exaggerations about some of Ohio State's limitations continue.

[@foxbodyblues6709]

Agreed, although I don’t think the exaggerations are “great”. They are subtle in many cases. Since the change at LT, they have ran for 170 yards in almost every game. Howard doesn’t have to be an elite QB to win a title, but he IS an elite QB in 24. Provided Smith isn’t injured for this game (after having his ankle twisted in the pile) the Ohio State pass game is elite.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Running for 170 vs Purdue and Northwestern isn’t an accomplishment this year. And vs Nebraska OSU ran it 40 times at a below average 4.4 ypc and for 20 points. All the while pass pro suffered. It’s a genuine concern.

[@bartold7080]

​@@CollegeFootballNerds After the Nebraska game, they pulled Zen M from LT and moved Jackson to LT at #4 Penn State. OSU ran for 176 yards against that top 10 rush defense and the RBs ran for better than 5 YPC. They also took over at their own 1 with 5:13 left in the game and ran 11 straight times to run out the clock even though PSU had 3 timeouts and 2 min warning. That's 3 straight games OSU has ran for 170+ yards

[@okcool2531]

He straight up hasn’t watched that game. No other reason for him talking about Nebraska.

[@avi7278]

@@CollegeFootballNerds you have a tendency to rely on raw stats without any additional context. For example the Purdue game the running game started off slow because Purdue came out in a bear front they hadn't shown all year. After a quarter and change the running game picked up significantly but result is a sub 200 day. Can we agree that 225 is a good day rushing? This points to a deficiency in dealing with the scheme and not a deficiency of the line itself. Against northwestern, OSU had the lowest number of possessions all year and just one possession the first quarter and a half of that game. additionally NW is the 36th best run def in CFB so it's not like they are hapless in that area. Do you think that either of these circumstances might account for a lack of those extra fifty or so rushing yards. And we all know Nebraska is an outlier where they were still figuring stuff out after that Simmons injury, not at all indicative of something greater. Are we just to ignore the Penn state game where they iced that game with 11 straight runs after they figured out the new lineup with Jackson and Hinzman on the left side and generally ran the ball well on one of the best def lines in CFB? Two bad beats by one of beat edge rushers in CFB on a guy in his first start at tackle also is not indicative of the kind of limitations you seem to point to. Also have not noticed these issues in pass pro you talk about. Howard generally has time to throw and they protect well.

[@ZZursch]

Who put up 56 against Nebraska and who almost lost to that same Nebraska team?

[@Jamalz1289Henderson-xw5ik]

Indiana fans about to f**k around and find out why transitive property doesn’t work. Indiana may be overachieving but they absolutely do not have enough talent to beat OSU okay “little engine that could”😂

[@ZZursch]

@ ight, 1.) don’t ever make train references to me again, and 2.) i don’t wanna hear a FIFO talkin big words like they understand em

[@joshuaconway3974]

A few years ago Michigan lost to Michigan State and then turned around to beat the Buckeyes after the Buckeyes beat Michigan State by 42

[@zplapplap]

@@Jamalz1289Henderson-xw5ik ​​⁠You’re parroting slogans. Nebraska is a common opponent and, accordingly, an insightful point of comparison.

[@bartold7080]

@@ZZursch Transitive property of common opponents doesn't always dictate the result of an upcoming matchup. Teams can be different every week, much less multiple weeks. Example in 2008. Oregon State beats USC. Penn State later in the season completely destroys that same Oregon State team. USC meets Penn State in the Rose Bowl and wins by double digits.

[@bryonscheffel7780]

My big concern is that Indiana is coming off a bye. If they can surprise Ohio State early they may be good enough to still score some after the Buckeyes adjust.

[@jaysonp9426]

I have no idea what people's problem is with Howard. He looks elite outside of like 5 plays this year where he made small mistakes. I watched Gabriel miss a wide open receiver that wasn't even covered on 3rd down for a TD against OSU and people talk about him for Heisman

[@LannySeals]

It would be pretty stupid for us Ohio State fans and the team itself to take Indiana lightly... they are a solid team, they didn't luck their way to where they are

[@charlesfriebis7954]

A loss hurts IU more than it hurts Ohio State. If Ohio State loses, they have 2 losses to top 5 teams and a win against another. That would drop them to somewhere around 7-9, but should be at the top of the 2 loss SEC teams, due to the teams who beat them. It feels like media and analysts are looking for a reason to drop IU, and a loss would give reason to do that. A bad loss will IU them closer to the bottom of the 2 loss SEC team jumble, and probably drops IU out of the top 10.

[@KB3TLE]

If the Buckeyes play like they are ''able'' -- 31 -- 20 is my pick. - - - If not -- I can also see the 24 -- 20 score & happy to survive ?

[@steveturansky9031]

Buckeyes 35-21. IU drops about 3-4 spots, depending on other results. If Indiana goes 11-1, they absolutely deserve a playoff spot.

[@Ezj9727]

Weird yo say that Vegas put the spread at 11 as a dare to the public when your model literally has the same spread

[@mattnorcia5593]

It should be a blowout especially being at home. But knowing RD in these games it will probably be OSU winning in a rock fight knowing they have TTUN next week.

[@tehhammer]

If Will Howard plays a clean game, Ohio State wins by 20+. If he blunders like he did against Penn State, it's a toss up.

[@johnbochenek5526]

If Ohio State loses they will be in the vicinity of Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama - OSU will be around number 9. If Indiana loses I think it will depend on how they look. A close loss and they will fall to 8, a loss of two TDs or more and they fall to 13.

[@eric50gobucks]

Indianas only chance in this game is the fact that they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready.

[@carpeweekendem1489]

If IU loses 31-17, IU jumps Penn St in CFP. Any 2+ offensive touchdown output by IU, and keeping osu under 36, is a better result vs Penn st’s performance. I believe this scenario is more than 50% likely.

[@anthonybarchetti803]

Your comment made little sense. PSU gave up 20 to OSU and lost by 7. You just said IU can give up 31 and lose by 14, yet jump PSU? wtf, that is worse bro.

[@SBSBuckeyeG]

You don’t have to be intimidated to get rolled.

[@johnnyoldenjr.]

😂😂

[@demetriusevans4139]

Fact

[@mrillmakeit]

​@@johnnyoldenjr. Oh. Nice to see you here, Johnny! Y'all beating Northwestern this week or nah? 😂 Can't wait until The Game! You as excited as I am?? Lol

[@Lt-Dan]

Indiana is the new TCU

[@jimjim0058]

So they’re gonna win a playoff game?

[@bascardigan7935]

I’m so excited about this game because Indiana gets to play their first ranked opponent and Ohio State gets to play Indiana. Someone is going to get embarrassed and I cannot wait!

[@moltenex]

Highly doubt anyone gets embarrassed. Most likely, the game will be decided by a moderate margin at most.

[@bascardigan7935]

@ naw I’ve seen the future! Someone is definitely getting embarrassed

[@itsTheBeavs]

The real o/u is Igbinosun DPI's

[@jonwalter6317]

He'll probably have three and a pick 6

[@elwalker9034]

These are professionals. Both teams prepare weekly.

[@nicmansker5536]

Michigan has the best defensive line in the country. That’s the only reason why Indiana struggled with the running game against Michigan.

[@ScarletGray-o3j]

Michigan does not have a better defensive line than Ohio State. They gave up more points to Oregon and got pushed around by Illinois. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@nicmansker5536]

@ I’m only talking about the d-line. Oregon beat Michigan through the air. Ohio states secondary is better than Michigan’s but not the d-line

[@444chroma]

I think it's a ROCK FIGHT

[@Ezj9727]

They just said that if we didn’t have McCord last year that we probably beat Michigan by 2 tds 😍😍😍😍😍😍 preach

[@marchedge4940]

How much of Indiana's rush defense is because they have big leads and teams throw?

[@L8nightride1]

i think Indiana has a real shot of coming into Columbus and winning. They will come in with a chip on their shoulder and they have had a few more days to prepare watching film.

[@billfrohberg3206]

Been a crazy year in college football. Computers and nerds don't know squat. I don't have a dog in this fight - but I'll take IU + 11.

[@nick21614]

If Indiana loses in not a blow out I wouldn't move them at all

[@chompsfn4357]

Play 1 ranked team and don’t get blown out? Is this where you set the bar?

[@cameronkurtz7422]

Id move them out

[@dripfield]

Play 1 ranked team, doesn’t get blown out. That’s a top 5 team? Lol

[@nick21614]

@@chompsfn4357 You think all ranked teams are the same, what is your IQ? 70? There is a bigger gap between top 4 and rank 25 than there is between rank 25 and rank 60.

[@sebastienc.2257]

@@chompsfn4357 Definitely higher than Penn State.

[@Clemsnman]

I really want to see what happens to Ohio St if they lose. A 10-2 Ohio St will get lumped in with all the 10-2 SEC teams but only have the Penn St win to hang their hat on.

[@jamesmarkscott6202]

still a lot of variables there. i think the win being at psu would trump tennessee at 10-2. that would be a better win than anything texas has if the 'horns lose to a&m. 'bama? uga? likely behind them.

[@MH-0101]

Notre Dame has played 3 G5 teams. If you model those games again, you get surprisingly close scores to the actual outcomes. I would be very concerned that your model actually has the Notre Dame Army game calculated correctly.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

The problem, which we try to note on the model page, is that it overvalues teams with very weak schedules (Army's SOS is 133rd out of 134). I think the model is solid on ND, the issue is that Army may be WAY overrated in our system.

[@seankopper2233]

Speaking of those Vegas trap lines, BYU -3 last week!!

[@davidwalker9035]

Wow, I keep thinking OSU defense has flaws and is a little bit better than average "D".

[@Mark-r2x3u]

To me this game totally relies on how good or bad Denzel Burke plays. If I am coaching for Indiana( and I am a Buckeye fan), I am throwing Burkes way all day and I win. IF Ohio States D line gets pressure enough to save Burkes butt, then Ohio State wins.

[@nickma71]

The big advantage Indiana has, and the big experts never seem to want to talk about certain subjects is play calling. On both sides of the ball. Day's scheme has improved with Chip Kelly, but is all too often stuffed because they know what is coming. Even without recording the side lines. And Jim Knowles has a weakness too. You can see it plain as day. Teams pass right to where there is no coverage. A common tactic that started around 2018-2019, is to snap the ball, and throw it down the sideline. Against 1 on 1, and no safety help. When in fact, a safety should have picked off every single lob like those throws. I believe it was an adjustment learned because Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, Sam Hubbard, and Chase Young, won all of their 1 on 1 battles and the QB has to get rid of it right away. This will be Cignetti's strategy. In part. I will watch the preview in just a bit.

[@Ignats75]

LOL. Keep telling yourself that.

[@nickma71]

@ Well that is convincing rebuttal. I’ll have to rethink what I saw.

[@Penguin20023]

If you think Chip Kelly's scheme has been at all predictable, you haven't watched a snap of Ohio State football all season. This isn't the Kyle McCord 2023 offense.

[@indynation6317]

If indiana beats Ohio st, they will have to give respect because it would be indiana and Oregon in the bigten championship

[@D3zii1]

I think ppl are thinking to far into this. This game will be just like most teams that are in the situation similar to Indiana. They’re good but not on that level. Look no further than then the Indiana/Michigan game. That’s all I’ll say Game will be over by halftime Ohio State 42 Indiana 20

[@Jalreal]

Indiana's game plan on offense should be to repeat Oregon's performance: push the ball deep against OSU corners, who are usually on islands. That opens the run game if they connect, and Rourke can and does connect on those. Their game plan on defense should be to stop the run ... and then pray. OSU's Trump card has been their pass game under Coach Day and it has bailed them out many, many times. I would not be surprised if OSU lost this game unless it is a blowout loss. Buckeyes by 4-7 points is my call. Our kicker isn't reliable enough to eek it out by 3. Much respect to Indiana on both sides of the ball.

[@bobwild-e8r]

Only 1 problem Oregon has a very mobile QB, Indiana doesn't, he won't have time for their slow WR's to get deep they will be covered. Indiana WR speed is no were close to what Oregon has.

[@Penguin20023]

IU receivers ARE good. They ARE NOT Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson 😂

[@jasonwarner6323]

I respect IU for what they have done. Here are a couple of not so advanced stats. That people may understand a little more. Let's start with the fact that IU has dominated their 69th rank strength of schedul. Ohio State has already played 2 top five teams. And has the number nine strength of schedule. One of those being a loss. With just those statements you would think IU would have a larger margine of victory. However you would be wrong. Ohio State has the number 1 margins of victory in the county. While also having a top 10 strength of schedule. Let that sink in a little. I would also like for people to compare the stats of two qbs. One is a hiesman contestant. Dylan Gabriel. The other is Will Howard. They are the same. Now take into consideration the sos. Osu 9 Ou 21. Yeah Howard has been more than serviceable imo. Even michigan man Jake butt thinks Howard should be talked about as a possible hiesman finalist. That might be stretch imo. But then again Gabriel?

[@Nozizaki]

The title of this video violates Betteridge's Law

[@RikDergis]

55 - 20 OSU running away w/it. Indiana has gotten all of their stats playing inferior competition.

[@GorillaJawn]

Osu has such a cake schedule that the game against INDIANA is a big deal. What a joke.

[@JustN0pe3]

Blowout. This is just another game when a "top" team who's played nobody all year finally plays somebody and gets put in their place. See TX. So tired of rewarding teams for bad schedules

[@Tfostyy]

"so so so so so so tiredddddddd." lmfao its college football dude, chill out

[@TonyLauLetta]

ur were prob the same guy ripping OSU's schedule at the beginning of the year

[@Augustus-b3q]

Last year, Michigan had the same type of schedule, cheated, and won the natty.....did you complain about that, hypocrite?

[@donaldshotts4429]

Not Indiana's fault Washington & Michigan fell off so badly? Sparty and UcLA usually win 7-8 too

[@legion888]

I have OSU winning but I do have Indiana covering

[@Carsandmore413]

Well, this isn’t your normal Indiana team that Ohio State is going up against plus Ohio State so inconsistent they can barely beat Nebraska with Indiana laden Nebraska out by halftime so this game really could go either way I think Indiana runs away with this more than people realize. I think they win at least by two touchdowns, but will wait and see on Saturday. I really believe people are just giving Ohio State the upper hand because their Ohio State

[@bobguilda6884]

Buckeyes in a blowout.

[@ohiorushbaby]

The real take: Ohio State determines if Ohio State wins this game. Indiana is ready to take it if Ohio State gives it to them. On paper, Ohio State has one of the most talented teams in the country, but the intangibles all seem to favor Indiana right now. Can Ohio State get out of its own head and rise to the challenge in a big game, or will Indiana cement itself as a true national title contender?

[@davidwelsh8026]

The Ryan Day factor is always ready to rise up and hurt OSU.

[@Augustus-b3q]

@davidwelsh8026 .... Say that again...I don't think they heard you in the back..

[@goblue4795]

Bro just yapping

[@blakesandman5866]

This is not a fluke, or just a nice story. The analysts have no idea what to think of the Hoosiers. Indiana 27 OSU 17. The Ducks will be next to go down @ Lucas Oil stadium. Both Oregon and the Buckeyes will overlook the Hoosiers based on past performance, and that my friends will be the deciding factor. Don't overlook Michigan in your next game.... This is just the beginning of Indiana football future. Enjoy the game

[@jamesmarkscott6202]

if IU was coming into the this game, say, 8-2 or 7-3, looking ahead to the finale would be more of a possibility. if you truly think the bucks aren't focused singularly on a 10-0 opponent, i've got some oceanfront property in richmond, in i want to sell you. ;)

[@Penguin20023]

Lmao. I'll be back Saturday at 4:00PM.

[@AmericaFirst47]

Close first half either way then 35-17 Buckeyes win.

[@brerrabbit3289]

So early!

[@1312020m]

Before listening to the video, I'm going to take Ohio State 31-16.

[@Phone-sh7jg]

We see this every year sometimes multiple times per year. A team like ND, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, and you name it, doesn't prepare and loses either to a second tier team or a rivalry game. Indiana is ready and healthy to fight all day long in this rivalry game. They hit hard and are very good in coverage. Offense will need to be 2D in the pass and run and sprinkle in some plays to keep Ohio off balance. If they do they win. INDIANA is a very good well balanced team. We will see Saturday. IU 37 ohio 25.

[@brettk9316]

Well SEC overrated this season and ND always loses to chump teams they should crush.

[@jimmy5634]

So, you think Ohio State isn’t going to prepare. You think we’re not ready and healthy. You think we don’t hit hard and we won’t fight all day. You don’t think Ohio State has some plays up their sleeve with Chip Kelly running the show. You think you Indiana can match up with OhioState talent wise? Okey Dokey.

[@dearriusprice150]

Haha 🤣 I’ll come back to this comment after the game

[@Penguin20023]

See you 4:00PM Saturday. Don't run.

[@troyv8302]

Before the Michigan game, I thought this was going to be the rock fight type of game. After seeing them struggle against a real defense, I'm leaning more towards a blowout. Kind of seeing a 34-14 type of win for the Buckeyes. Looking forward to the game. Nice breakdown guys!

[@benelliott1011]

Lmao let me just use that same shit ideology against ya. No way an Ohio State team beats IU after OSU struggled with Nebraska at Home. Iu beat them 56-7😂

[@troyv8302]

@@benelliott1011 Just like you guys gave up 24 to a God awful Northwestern team. Yeah, we can do this all day. Maybe if you guys played anyone with a pulse, you'd know what it is to have a let down game after a big game. You will know that after Saturday.

[@benelliott1011]

@@troyv8302 which is my point. You can’t look at Indiana struggle in 1 half and say that’s who they are as a team. IU absolutely dominated Michigan in the 1st half. We will see. I’m not saying OSU won’t win. I am saying Indiana will cover

[@troyv8302]

@@benelliott1011 It should be a good game. Right now, we're both putting our opinions on how it will play out. It will play out on the field either way and Indiana might cover or win and they might get blown out. We'll know more Saturday evening. Right now, I'm feeling a little confident in my team, I usually do. I'd say good luck Saturday but I'd be lying so 🍻 here's to a good game with no injuries! BTW, after this game, I'm back to rooting for y'all. Just can't do it this week.

[@benelliott1011]

@@troyv8302 perfectly said. An injury free, clean football game is all we can ask for. May the better team win🤝

[@bobwild-e8r]

YES YES Indiana leads the Big Ten in Sacks but against Michigan's very average OLine and bad QB's `they never had a single sack. If they have to blitz to get pressure with those 3 WR's out there and Howard #2 in Completion Percentage. Long day for the hosers

[@rogerlong6842]

Kurtis Rourke for Heisman . Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers

[@viktubeproductions3314]

I would love to see IU beat OSU, but I think the higher talent for OSU wins the game, but if IU can keep it close they still make the playoffs OSU 24 IU 17

[@MrCow-ir4gw]

Given Ryan day’s record in close games against good teams (who are not from Pensilvania), I think this is either going to be an Ohio State blowout, or a close Indiana win. H*ck it i’ll take the upset Indiana 21-17.

[@spuddawg02]

I'm not totally against an upset bid- unlikely but possible... That score tho? This one's gotta be higher scoring than that no? I'm taking OSU 42-31

[@stevelenores5637]

I love the optimism. None of players and some of the younger coaches weren't born the last time Indiana didn't lose to Ohio State. It was 1990 and Ohio State finished 5th in the conference. That game ended in a 27-27 tie.

[@MrCow-ir4gw]

@@spuddawg02 I agree if OSU wins, I’m just thinking that Indiana’s best chance is a quagmire game. A score in the 30s is absolutely possible though.

[@MrCow-ir4gw]

@@stevelenores5637 wow it’s been a while then. Let’s hope the bye week helps them then!

[@spuddawg02]

@@MrCow-ir4gw makes sense actually. If it's high scoring, like if OSU puts up 35 plus, the buckeyes almost certainly win. If Indy holds them to under 28 the hoosiers might have it!

[@rogerlong6842]

Your model looks about right with OSU AT 25 , but Indiana's getting in the 30's . Way too much Rourke . Power running . OSU's defense is not as good as you have them rated .

[@Penguin20023]

See you at 4:00PM Saturday lmao

[@tonyg.1114]

With 3 common opponents, IU has the better spread, especially vs Neb. Sorry, the truth hurts.

[@larrybowers3694]

What if the game ends in a tie that my perdition

[@Jacob-jj8gi]

My biggest criticism of these guys is they seem to lack consistency in their stated beliefs. For example, they have Indiana over Penn State in their rankings but they always say that their rankings are based on who they think would win on a neutral field. Do they honestly believe Indiana would beat Penn State and if so, what gives them that confidence? Indiana has a much larger margin of victory but their strength of schedule is much weaker. Penn State has proven they can beat good teams, even on the road, and yet Indiana has only proven that they can beat bad teams thus far. I love Indiana’s story this year but it’s analysis like this that has me hoping Ohio State crushes Indiana to really illustrate the point.

[@PixelArcStudios]

These guys' take on PSU is almost always nonsense. Daniel says PSU is ranked ahead of Indiana and it's almost unfair because they essentially have the same schedule... According to FPI, PSU's SOS so far this season is 35. Indiana's is 106. As far as Indiana dominating all their opponents like a good team does against lesser competition, go take a look at the outcomes of the common opponents between PSU and Indiana. I like the channel, I just ignore them when it comes to PSU.

[@nfgdrummer21]

I agree. I don’t know how they start the video saying both teams play similar schedules so far this year.. it’s not even remotely close.

[@Jacob-jj8gi]

@@nfgdrummer21 I about spat out my coffee when Josh said “Indiana is a very good team” after dragging them pretty much all year especially when it comes to strength of schedule. They blame brand on why Penn State is ranked higher than Indiana and don’t think it’s fair and yet they’re regularly the first to say that they ranked team X over team Y because “team X has shown us in the past they can do this before but we’ve never seen team Y do it”.

[@Jacob-jj8gi]

@@PixelArcStudios It’s become apparent after watching them for close to 2 years now that they’re very clued in to the SEC and not so much the rest of the country and that bias absolutely shows even though they like to pretend it’s all about the numbers and only what happens this year.

[@cabe115]

TBF, their model has Indiana over PSU by a field goal. I’d say that’s about right. Could be PSU by a FG or IU, but they look very comparable to me. I might give IU the edge solely on the upside of their offense, but I could see it the other way with PSU’s defensive experience and depth. I won’t disagree with anyone’s take on which team belongs above the other, unless someone is calling for a clear edge. There is no clear edge between these two teams, the difference is minute and clear as mud.

[@philliptjackson]

Indiana blows out Ohio State. 45-14 A big factor is the QB play. An NFL level QB changes everything. Indiana has that.

[@Penguin20023]

Pfft. Good one. Still got that beach front property for sale in Montana too?

[@nfgdrummer21]

What did PSU do to you guys lol “Gets blown out by Ohio State” Lost by 7 in a game that we handed to them.

[@bobwild-e8r]

Not really Ohio State was down 10 point because of the Pick 6 but again PSU had to settle for 3 on the 1st drive and couldn't run the ball when they had to. Penn State still has to own that. What do Elite Teams do? they run when they need to like the last 11 plays of that game from the 1 yard line OSU ran it right down Penn State's Throat!! Here it comes! now stop it. That was big Boy Football!! Sorry Nittany Boy it's like watching your GF kiss your best friend!!

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

The point was that Penn State for 6 years running has lost to the eventual Big Ten champ by 2+ scores as a ranked team. That's a serious trend, and Penn State was often a top--10 team in a similar spot to Indiana going into those games. The point being that there's plenty of perspective that Indiana could be a really good team as expected and still not be overly competitive in this game.

[@CopycatNinja875]

Indiana has to make the game against Ohio St very competitive in order to seal a playoff birth. If the game turns into a blowout, the committee will take into account their weak schedule and lack of quality victories and they might lose their playoff spot to a 2 loss SEC team that had a much tougher schedule.

[@zanehawkins5869]

I dont think I agree with the ESPN talking points. The way they have won games, the amount of wins gets them in regardless.

[@soboredrn-v8e]

@@zanehawkins5869 Not necesarilly. SOS is very important. Its win or out for iu

[@kevinlowry3814]

IU 27/OSU 25

[@michaelthompson729]

If Indiana had played someone with a pulse and won i would see this as a toss up but this isn't the case...playing OSU will be a rude awakening

[@andycockrum1212]

Most teams we’ve played had a pulse until we played them

[@Number3boyz]

I think it’ll be close till half and then Indiana not being really battle tested and they don’t have guys like Ohio state does. Going to blast them second half. Ohio state 37-17 depending on the weather.

[@Hoosier911]

I'll take a 30% chance against OSU

[@Deep.Purple]

OSU 30 - IU 17

[@CuddleBuddee]

Will Howard is elite, the oline and rush are killing it at PSU after making changes. Maybe watch a game for once to supplement your stats 😂 Real analysts who are former players and coaches say Will is elite, making great throws, so I understand why casuals dont see it 😂 Stats? Ok compare to your golden boy Gabriel 😂 Y'all are ao annoying at times. SMH

[@troyjones5156]

Indiana 56 vs Nebraska 7 and Ohio State 21 vs Nebraska 17. Is Nebraska a better offensive team than Indiana? Why do you not think that Indiana is not looking at what Nebraska did to Ohio State? Common sense isn't common. Indiana's defense is going to be the problem for Ohio State. Ohio State believes they have already won the game and looking forward meeting Oregon again. Bad move. Indiana 27 Ohio State 17

[@garysalyers7611]

The best Scoring Offense Indiana has faced is Maryland at #85. Second best is FIU at #89. FIU!! The rest of the teams are all ranked between #101 - #126. So is Indiana's Defense ranked so high because the Offenses they have played can't score? Ohio State is #12 in Scoring Offense as a comparison. Major jump in scoring production

[@Penguin20023]

The only bad move here is this take. See you Saturday after the game. Don't run.

[@carlosrivera-sanchez7959]

What’s Indianas strength of schedule?

[@troyjones5156]

Playing Ohio State is one their schedule. Once they bet Ohio State then everyone will shut up. OSU is a pretty big name.

[@bobwild-e8r]

102 SOS

[@Shibdefend]

38-13 Ohio State Indiana falls to #8

[@MH-0101]

You do know that Army vs Notre Dame is the only game over the next two weeks that has any impact on the playoff right?

[@hijj7676]

Texas v A&m does too

[@cabe115]

Every Miami/Clemson game does. A loss for either removes them from the ACC championship game and almost certainly the playoffs all together. Tenn, Ole Miss, A&M, UGA, and Bama all play losable games that would remove them from the playoff race. AZ St could lock BYU out of the Big 12 champ and probably the playoffs with a win.

[@MH-0101]

@@cabe115 Miami and Clemson would only play in the ACC Championship. Tennessee, Ole Miss, UGA and Alabama don't play anymore losable games. The Big 12 Champ doesn't really matter to me as I don't see that conference as having a serious national championship contender.

[@cabe115]

@@MH-0101 you said games that could have an impact on the playoffs. A game that determines who gets in the playoffs is a game that has impact. So I’ll reiterate with more clarity. Miami or Clemson losing any game in the next two weeks would remove them from the ACC champ game, and likely the playoffs. Miami has a losable game against Cuse, and Clemson has a clearly losable game against SC. Tennessee plays at Vandy (the same Vandy team that beat Bama and nearly Texas). Ole Miss plays a Florida team that took Tenn to OT, was beating UGA without their starting qb, and just drubbed LSU. UGA plays a rivalry game against GT. Rivalries are always losable. Same for Bama against Auburn (an upset that has happened several times in recent history). A&M plays Texas in a game that will eliminate A&M should they lose. While the Big 12 may not produce a natty contender, the games over the next two weeks will affect the playoff contender they produce, and thus have an impact on the playoffs.

[@MH-0101]

@@cabe115 Hey, I think what you mean is SMU and Miami. Clemson is already on the outside looking in. If SMU were to lose any game in the next two weeks, that wouldn’t even necessarily change anything because they actually have to lose twice. But if Miami loses once then Clemson would take their spot. Also Clemson plays the Citadel and South Carolina which are out of conference so there’s no playoff impact in either of those two games for Clemson.