Alabama vs Georgia Preview w/Computer Model: College Football 2024

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Due to a provider data error, the model’s score output was a good bit lower than it should have been (though the yardage predictions and general margins were accurate). You can view an updated model (updated constantly as we get more games and context) here: collegefootballnerds.com/ComputerModel/Alabama-vs-Georgia

[@markz8665]

I know it's wonky this early, but I was playing around with the model and tried FSU vs UGA and got -1.9 to 11.0. Sounds about right for FSU this year 😂

[@SurefireMonk]

I did Alabama vs Army and got 15.9 to -24.5

[@erictaylor687]

That's a score that my great great grandfather can get behind. Great job as always!

[@rob97dani]

Clicked on this video so quick

[@Musclamp]

I don't understand the idea that georgia struggles against schemes like tennessee when georgia has been the only defense to consistently control their offense. Great preview, though.

[@iBeAsTeX]

These guys have always had weird takes on GA going back to 2020. I think they put too much stock in to their stats, which are important, but they don't take in to consideration the actual flow of a game. IDK, I remember back in 2022 when they were bashing GA for not having enough explosive plays and then we saw them go undefeated and win the natty.

[@LonghornsLegend]

​@@iBeAsTeX that's the biggest problem with this channel I appreciate analysis but they view football games like a game of numbers and they stick to it which makes it frustrating often listening to certain break downs

[@randyevans4967]

I was thinking the same thing. UGA has played better against heupel's scheme than literally anyone else the past few years. Doesn't mean it will always go that way, but the data to this point doesn't reflect "struggling."

[@Mates0nDeck]

maybe they mispoke? i remember them bringing this up when they talked about alabama changing schemes this offseason how saban struggled with it but the new scheme wouldn't as much.

[@Brycejugs82]

Well I think that’s a not a fair take. When Tennessee came to Georgia two years ago it was raining and tenneessee dropped lots of easy touchdowns in the game.

[@RB-.-]

Im a Georgia fan and we're losing sadly. Beck is good but not great. Dont have the lines of scrimmage to win on the road like this while overcoming so many injuries. Luckily theres a lot of margin for error with the 12 team playoff so this one wont hurt nearly as much and the anxiety isnt really there for me like it usually is

[@kaijohnson5033]

I’m really not sure why people are so high on Beck. Never seen anything look elite in his game. Georgia as a whole is incredibly elite and allows a very good qb in Beck to do his job well. But I keep hearing number one pick and I wonder where that’s coming from.

[@dontayewhittaker5687]

Im sorry after what happened last year im no longer picking Georgia over Bama even though i think Georgia is the better team. I am now convinced that Bama is to Georgia what Florida is to Tennessee meaning they'll always find a way to blow the game even if they are better.

[@markfennell1604]

Well bama blew the lead in 4th quarter in the natty 2 years ago against Georgia. Yes that’s only 1 win against bama in 18 years but that 1 is a championship 🙌

[@bamaengineer]

​@@markfennell1604didn't help that their skill guys were hurt in that championship game. But regardless it should be a great game this weekend!

[@markfennell1604]

@@bamaengineertrue true, but in years bama always had a roster full of play makers so even if one get injured the next man step up they have the most 4/5 stars. I guess no one step up that day

[@brooksphillips2234]

​@@markfennell1604Bama had a lot of younger guys that didn't have the right work ethic. They weren't ready when the bright lights hit!

[@WinModel88]

​@@bamaengineerinjury excuses are typical for Gump fans. Acting like Georgia wasn't down to 4th string WRs that entire season. Georgia beat that ass, end of story.

[@Gmy24]

I disagree that UGA does not have elite edges. Jalon Walker has been the best player on the field the first three games. Also, Mykel Williams has not played in two and half games. UGA gives up yards on the edge. But I think they have the personnel to get after Milroe. Will they do it is the question. Good preview fellas.

[@galenjacobs6005]

I doubt Walker is gonna be 100% healthy tho

[@Gmy24]

@@galenjacobs6005 Walker isn’t hurt. Mykel won’t be a 100%. But Walker will be

[@BrianGlaze]

The Jam Miller opinion chronicles continue

[@nevillesmith426]

RTR - going to be a great game! Big fan of defensive struggles. My favourite game had a total of 5 scores, all field goals -- Ala 9 Ten 6 in 1990

[@chadcarlisle3123]

mine was 2005 bama-tenn 6-3.

[@randyjordan5521]

I'm old enough to remember when Bama beat LSU 3-0 back in 1979. Bama went on to win the title.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@nevillesmith426 in 2011 Bama and LSU played 2 games with only 1 td! That was 2 of the best defenses I've seen in college football!

[@elitethefalcon4199]

Y’all nailed it on Carson man Still proud of the team for nearly making an insane comeback. A lot of ball to be played still

[@elitethefalcon4199]

Irrational opinion on Beck

[@Dawg-Bone]

I’ve been a Georgia fan since 2018, and I’ve only picked against them once. That was in 2019 against that elite LSU team. I also promised after the Ohio State game that I would never doubt this team again. Unfortunately, this is where that promise is broken. This will be only the second time I’ve picked against my team. In that environment, against that defense, and against the potential explosiveness of that offense, I don’t think we’re good enough. Beck has struggled on the road in his career, we’re REALLY missing Bowers and McConkey, the offensive line has been playing below expectations, and while the defense is elite, I don’t think it’ll be enough. I just don’t. Milroe would have to play really bad if we were to have a shot, and I think he’s improved from last year. I’ve got Bama winning 23-16. I want Georgia to prove me wrong, but I don’t think they will, and that’s a tough pill to swallow.

[@BamaGreg2024]

I respect that you are honest about your opinion and I have picked Georgia against us (like last year)! You never know, I think if we can keep from hurting ourselves, penalties, turnovers etc. then I think we win a close game. I would rather lose to y’all now bc beating Ga twice , either in the SecCg or playoffs. Beating y’all twice is rare.

[@WarEagle-z5r]

Auburn fan here. I like your reasoning but I feel like Kirby beats Bama this time. I think it would be a tougher pill to swallow if all of us football fans see Kirby lose to Bama again this time with no Saban on the other sideline. I'm not talking hot seat or anything I'm talking just how bad it would look if he doesn't get it done.

[@deronthomas1566]

@@WarEagle-z5rthat’s my reservation as a Bama fan. Do you really think Kirby Smart is going to let a new staff at Alabama beat him? The law of averages comes into play as well. We’ll see.

[@randallgreen8453]

@@WarEagle-z5ryou should be worried about Vandy not Bama or UGA😅

[@thomasorzack5795]

@@deronthomas1566 Previous games do not count-Bama staff is okay

[@gelato3299]

We here roll tide family stand up lock in

[@DrGonzo-ms4ii]

Roll Tide DOES keep it in the family 😂😂😂 Roll Cest! Hahaha

[@randychester2754]

All I know is Kirby is 1-5 against Alabama, and Georgia is 1-8 against Bama since 2007. They certainly have something to prove on the field.

[@michaelkersey2558]

20-14 Georgia, Walker has developed into a real threat off the end. Their defense is flying to the ball, especially the back 7. I think Etienne will be the big difference on offense. He's impressed me so far. Georgia's main thing is they have to keep the ball away from Milroe and sustain enough drives.

[@katarh]

As a Dawg fan I'm praying for a miracle in Tuscaloosa. Hunker down and get through these next few days everyone. GO AWAY HELENE!

[@williecourthers9450]

Because of Jalen Milroe's inconsistency in throwing the ball he is continuously getting Alabama in 3rd and long. This can impact the defense by being on the field too long. Jalen also has to make better decisions when in 3rd down situation. Get the first down yardage versus throwing a bomb down field. Carson Beck is more accurate with the ball. However, the slight edge goes to Alabama because they are playing in Tuscaloosa.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@williecourthers9450 Bama is #12 in the nation on 3rd downs. Milroe has actually done a pretty good job on 3rd down but they still need to do better on 1st and 2nd down to prevent 3rd and 8 or 3 and 9. 3rd and short is much more manageable against a team like Georgia! I am with you on wishing Jalen would get the first down yards instead of going deep so much! This teams big play ability is great so I would rather Jalen get the first down and then take a shot when it's not 3rd down. I understand sometimes you go deep when they aren't expecting it but not as much as he has so far.

[@williecourthers9450]

@@brooksphillips2234 I really like your comment. You nailed it.

[@Ask-a-Rocket-Scientist]

I think UGA has been holding thier cards tight for this game so IDK what to expect.

[@TLJones-bq7wk]

💯💯 That’s why I think Georgia could win big. We haven’t seen our real offense yet. No Dillon Bell, no ettienne in space, no deep throws. We have no idea what this offense can do. All they’ve done so far is hand it off to the backs

[@brooksphillips2234]

No way Georgia held back when they were in danger of losing to Kentucky!

[@justinbecker3340]

Bama has been holding back for certain...Georgia, no. Georgia was dying against Kentucky....playing for their lives.

[@sinisterfame622]

​@brooksphillips2234 you would be surprised. I believe, in fact, that game was intentionally thrown to be a close call to throw everyone off. Believe it or not, this does in fact happen with teams that know they can score when they need to. Refer to this comment after the Bama game.

[@katarh]

@@sinisterfame622 LOL naw that was some blown assignments on our O-line and Kentucky knowing exactly how were roll thanks to Vandagriff and JDJ being in the scheme for years. perfect storm of them knowing how to read us, and how to mess with our execution.

[@jakeconner2813]

It's crazy this might be the first of 3 match ups between these 2 teams this year

[@indigoenergygamer4350]

Shit, I didn't even think about that. It's actually wild.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@jakeconner2813 that is very true! If they don't face off in the SEC championship game they will probably see each other in the playoffs! It's definitely possible for 3 games too!

[@Lamar-lz4ts]

I'm a Bama fan and UGA is getting disrespected by models and from the Kentucky game. They are gonna be mad and hungry this game. They gonna stop the run and make Bama throw.

[@philmcrackinnow]

People should watch our game vs the best team we’ve played so far (Clemson). Georgia gets up for big games. Models don’t reflect that.

[@nicholaskling2425]

@@philmcrackinnowI’m not going to take anything away from that win, but don’t forget that the first half was a struggle for both teams.

[@deronthomas1566]

💯 The real fans know. UGA has been preparing for this game all year. Bama’s coaches have mentioned their staff being ahead of them in so many words. What’s does that mean to me? They can be more variable in the game and make faster adjustments than we can. Not saying we lose but it will look different than the 41-24’s or 38-10’s we’ve laid on them a few times.

[@robertd9850]

Ok but Milroe can sling it and has some damn good receivers and TE to throw to.

[@hunternixonfishing2500]

I’ve been telling my fellow Georgia fans this for the last week and a half. Being way too prisoner of the moment. We always get up to play Alabama

[@TJsVette]

I'm rooting for Bama all the way but Georgia is like Auburn. You don't know what team is going to show up to play on either side. Georgia is going to be coming in on that struggle win vs Kentucky and be looking for a huge win. Bama is still getting use to a new coach and staff. It's going to be a good game no matter what.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Imagine if Alabama and Georgia had to play each other in Jordan Hare Stadium. 0-0 tie.

[@TJsVette]

@@CollegeFootballNerds right!

[@Donny_DeVito]

Great analysis as always fellas, Josh looking good. Give me 24-20 Alabama. From a matchup perspective you’re looking at an offense capable of getting to the edges fast against a defense that has been very suspect in that aspect. You then also have a QB at UGA who just got done proving, against a MUCH weaker pass rush at UK, that he is wobbly in an unstable/collapsing pocket. That being said, Bama is absolutely susceptible to bust plays and getting gashed on the interior. Shortening the game, UGA will keep it close but won’t be able to finish the game due to lack of talent where it’s necessary to beat Alabama.

[@Ultra-BLV]

I think the key to the game is how well Georgia runs the ball. If Georgia is able to grind 4.5-5 YPC consistently on an Alabama run defense that has been mortal thus far, it will set up Carson Beck to take advantage of some mismatches against Bama’s inexperienced secondary and allow Georgia to efficiently move up and down the field with consistency. I think Georgia has the best defense in the country right now when they get their main defensive line guys back. The lack of DL depth on the field against Kentucky showed but I think it was a one game thing due to the unique injury situation we had in that game that won’t be apparent again, similar to Alabama’s OL vs USF. Georgia has been great at preventing big plays and Alabama hits big plays better than anybody. Talk about an unstoppable force vs immovable object. I’ve picked Georgia to win every game since our last regular season loss in 2020 against Florida. I think Georgia is more than capable of winning this game, they’re favored for a reason and for the first time in these matchups have the better head coach. Alabama’s looked on both sides of the ball for 9/12 quarters, and Georgia’s started insanely slow offensively twice against P4 teams, Georgia seems to miss Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey desperately, Georgia’s OL has underperformed and now will be without their best player, and Carson Beck has struggled in road environments and now he’ll be playing in the toughest road environment of his career. For the first time in nearly 4 years, my head is telling me to pick against my Dawgs. I think it’s fairly low scoring to start, both offenses pick it up in the 2nd half, but ultimately Bama, through Jalen Milroe’s arm and legs, creates a few more explosives than Georgia does. So (sadly), give me Bama 30-27 Saturday Night. Now excuse me while I go find somewhere to throw up.

[@katarh]

The o-line failed to execute against Kentucky. I watched some of The Film Guy breakdown and he called out a few specific players who were not playing to the best of their abilities - missing key assignments, tackling someone already tackled, just generally not being the standard that Georgia has had in past years. If we cleaned up these mistakes in the last two weeks of practice? Then we'll be back to 5-6 yard chunk plays and minimal third and long situations. If those same players continue to play like poorly programmed NPCs? We are going to be giving Thor more punts than he's seen since he arrived from Australia.

[@jonwalter6317]

I'm an Ohio State fan, going to be in Colorado Springs on Saturday night, kind of hoping the hotel doesn't have Peacock so I can watch this game instead. Should be epic.

[@brooksphillips2234]

Just watch on KZbin

[@deronthomas1566]

@@jonwalter6317 it’s on ABC. That’s everywhere right?

[@23anderz]

@@deronthomas1566yeah thats national tv

[@daddybigfins7729]

The Ohio State game is on Peacock

[@joyfultrails]

Josh needs a light! Or at least close the curtains. That would cut down on the bright light behind him (which is causing the camera iris to shut down and make him too dark.) A small ring light would help greatly. Love the channel, btw.

[@robertd9850]

Excellent analysis as usual. I agree with Josh only because the game is in Tuscaloosa. I'd go with Daniel if it were being played in Athens.

[@nickkyg]

I havent seen enough from our (UGA) offense that would suggest we could put up more than alabama, at alabama. teams with more explosivity are harder to gauge than an efficiency based offense. could that get completely taken away? i guess thats possible. if so, that 5-11 score the model throws out could be real, as much as I would hate that. I think bama gets a few shots and milroe, despite what I dont love about his game, he can hit those deep shots. whats even more concerning is how inefficient our efficiency based offense has been. this could be a 24-17 (2̶3̶-̶1̶6̶ changed since someone else picked that exact score a few minutes before me) type game, going Alabamas way. Either way, i dont think either teams season is over with a loss here. it hurts UGA more imo, given the schedule, but if they could finish 10-2, we could make the playoffs. Our offense has to have its most complete game this year, and that has to be on the wings of an efficient Beck.

[@opalrhudy2526]

Bama on that double digit Tip. Like what I gave ol girl last night. Smart money on that Crimson Tide. Go on, take that Ride...She did and was not left wanting.😮

[@c.j.4620]

Did you guys think about waiting on the model until 3-4 FBS games?

[@billeffingmurray1224]

I'm going GA 34 Bama 20. (And I'm a bama fan). I think the GA defense will stifle the Bama offense. I think the GA offense will be more than motivated to score - and score a lot - on a rather vulnerable Bama secondary that hasn't been exploited yet, but has shown busted coverages in recent games. Then, there's also the other motivation factors for GA like the Bama monkey on GA's back for the last decade & the disrespect GA is getting in the polls for a close game with Kentucky. To me, this is all a recipe for a highly motivated GA team that could win big. I think the only real advantages Bama has is the game is at home, in Tuscaloosa. And Saban will probably be working with the coaches & the team behind the scenes.

[@AlphaDwg]

you need to watch your team more closely friend lol

[@daygon128]

You've got concerns about Bama's boom or bust offense yet no concern about UGA's LACK of offense? Wild.

[@gelato3299]

@@daygon128 bro imagine if milore only put up 13 points against Kentucky they would be saying he can’t read defense he can’t be a quarterback

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Georgia’s offense was fine versus Clemson, who is better than Kentucky. As we’ve been saying, we aren’t going to overreact to the Kentucky game given they’ve played other games and they’ve had a clunker like that almost every year early only to be fine afterwards.

[@nicholaskling2425]

@@CollegeFootballNerdsI thing it’s important to remember that Georgia struggled to score in the first half and only took control after halftime while Clemson struggled offensively all game.

[@dontayewhittaker5687]

​@@nicholaskling2425 Yea that 34-3 final score is kinda deceptive. UGA offense only started clicking after Clemson defense started to tire because the offense couldn't stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

That’s all fair, but it’s not like they can’t score at all or the Kentucky result was normal. Both teams had scary clunker games offensively. Often these things just don’t make the cut for discussion given how long we already run.

[@Slangtalker07]

Guys we do have Jalon Walker who plays on the edge a lot but they move him all over the formation regardless he’s great

[@Hughjordan-l2e]

w3here was he against kent

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Ha Georgia only gave up 13 points

[@WinModel88]

​@@Hughjordan-l2eGeorgia didn't play Kent St so he wasn't there at all.

[@WarEagle-z5r]

As an Auburn fan, I hope Bama wins Saturday! I respect them on what they've done. That said, I see gerogia winning. Is there any way Kirby doesn't get it done this time where there's no Nick Saban on the other sideline? I think Kirby has to have this game. 27-20 gerogia on top. Just my opinion

[@AJ-ux4sv]

I may have misunderstood, but if Josh is saying Tennessee and this newer Bama offense has a similar scheme and that should benefit them, then I fully disagree. Heupel has had great players and still hasn’t scored more than 20 points against Georgia. Georgia’s defensive scheme is built to beat an offensive scheme like Tennessee’s. It’s why Tennessee’s offense crumbles when they have played UGA

[@randyclay6257]

UGA struggled to stop Milroe in the first half of the SEC Championship game. It was very successful in the second half Bama had a FG and then got a TD on a 25 yard drive). I’m very nervous about the UGA offense on the road at night in a madhouse. Should be a great game, hope the Dawgs squeak one out (UGA 17-9)

[@Hughjordan-l2e]

will not hold bama to no tds

[@carsonoliver2817]

Underrated factor: UGA is coming off a bye week. Look at how the dawgs have played in past years with time to prepare. This one will be close but I think that bye week might be the diff. Go Dawgs

[@brooksphillips2234]

@carsonoliver2817 Bama has a by week too though!

[@rotcoke652]

Ok, no. I'm not buying this crap about Bama giving up 'long grueling drives'. Western Kentucky had one 71 yard drive where they went for it 3 times on 4th down, and they eventually turned it over on downs. Wisconsin had a 17 play drive where they went for it on 4th down twice. These things happen when a team is so far behind that they feel like there's nothing to lose. That says nothing about the defense. Both of those drives, if they are just playing normal football, it's a punt the football situation and never ends up on the stat sheet.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

17 play drives are exceedingly rare though.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@CollegeFootballNerds yes they are, but he has a point. In a game like Georgia vs. Bama, neither team would be going for it on 4th down as much.

[@arubial1229]

Slight correction, Miller is the lead back. Haynes is behind him.

[@PurpleHazeVanNederlands]

24-14 Alabama. Beck does get rattled, less weapons, and half the total TDs when 5 of Beck's 7 came vs an FCS team TNTC. Milroe hasn't played an FCS team, he has 2 rushing TDs a game average, only game without 3 passing TDs or lower than an 89 QBR was without both tackles his G at T and still went 61% 2 passing TDs/2 rushing for about 200 yards passing. It's ugly competition but his stats are good, there's good reason why every book has Milroe tied with Dart for 2nd best odds for Heisman right now.

[@JamesBond-zd5jx]

I would equate Wisconsin as an FCS team.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@JamesBond-zd5jx either they are or they aren't. I agree that Wisconsin isn't great but they are still a power 5 team!

[@MoneyIsSilver]

My only prediction is that the score is going to be lower than your predictions and closer to the model. 20 - 13, or something like that.

[@BehindFor17Hours]

As a Georgia fan, Alabama +2 is the freest money in the history of football. Wish I could find my way to Vegas to bet the farm.

[@Hughjordan-l2e]

go for it feeling confident mighty dogs loao did you forget 13 -12 l;ast week think twice

[@michaelsledge3904]

You could've been a richer man today 😂💯

[@KetchupinOhio]

Love your model website, added a lot of goodies - maybe too many to look at while at work. Although, looking at OSU (favorite team, love that dashboard for favorite team) all the stats look low, I thought it might be because of an FCS opponent, but even though we haven't played anybody, they are all FBS schools (2 from the MAC and 1 from the Sun Belt). The points per game is right, but the rushing and passing stats are way low. Overall 552, model shows 395, Rushing 241, model shows 148, Passing 311, model shows 246. When I look at your video and Georgia's numbers the model and the games (taking out the one FCS opponent) looks right. So is there an opponent your model removed?

[@Pappagar]

Could be a lot of things. They might assign weights to conferences. They might not have enough data yet.

[@KetchupinOhio]

@@Pappagar hi, it was the my team stats page, where it shows your school their averages and then rankings vs. all 133 other schools. So no prediction information, just raw averages, so if you rushed for a total of 300 yards over 3 games the average would be 100, but the site is showing something like 79.3. It looks like it is didn't add in the last game, but all the averages end in .3 (which means it is dividing by 3) and the scoring average is right.

[@cadet3691]

When will the model have the pick 'ems reset and ready to begin? They're currently set to last year's games for me. Also, will the Top 25s reset? Or do I need to just redo it manually since my Top 25 from last season is still up?

[@Walls120973]

31-24 Alabama. Roll tide! It’s going to be the best game of the season including the payoffs. This will be the national championship game.

[@shawnclark6927]

Na georgi wins and then Texas becomes the best game and when Georgia wins that then the ole miss game becomes the best game and then the Tennessee Georgia game.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@Walls120973 it's possible this could be the first of 2 or 3 games vs each other. There will be bigger games down the road especially since either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs no problem.

[@markfennell1604]

This is going to a tough battle but I’m leaning towards Georgia on this one 31-28

[@robertd9850]

I would be too if they were playing in Athens.

[@randyjordan5521]

I don't see Georgia scoring 31 points in Tuscaloosa.

[@markfennell1604]

@@randyjordan5521 bet, if they don’t I’ll give you $20

[@mattrasmussen1887]

Jam is the best in the country. If he stays around next year he will be a heisman contender.

[@jonathananderson253]

23-20 Jam Miller is incredible. His ability to accelerate and bruise his way to more yardage reminds me of vintage RB’s from the 2000’s. Milroe will be the X factor again. Kirby’s defense isn’t designed to beat QB’s like him, and I think UGA will also struggle against Tennessee for the same reasons.

[@JohnnyBallgame88]

Should be a great game that goes down to the wire. I think Georgia wins a close one, but this one could go either way. GATA Dawgs

[@EmergencyTop5]

In these big games, (like you said in the past) the chunk plays will matter. I think the coaching staff (Bama) found something at the end of the USF game. I don’t know if UGA can stop Milroe, Haynes, Miller, and Williams & Bernard on the outside. Bama wins this game 31-23 RTR!!!!

[@Average_Middle_Aged_American]

Roll Tide! I want to win but losing a close game to Georgia is not the end of the world. I wanted Top 10 year 1 and Top 5 year 2. How many teams can claim that with a new HC, OC, and DC?

[@mitchellroyse1853]

A healthy Malachi Moore is crucial in this game. The Bama secondary vs Beck is the tale of the tape. Bama offense and Georgia defense is a wash if not edge UGA. That said, game in T-Town. Give me Bama 23-17. Roll Tide!

[@alrdrummerboy32]

What a coincidence! I was also going to predict an 11-5 score

[@clydeschronicles3462]

Alabama is great at throwing wait and see we don’t give damn about model

[@stevenholman7639]

Should make this game the last game of the schedule every year like Mich/OSU

[@cecillewis3587]

The difference will be in whomever plays cleaner. Flags will be a factor

[@MH-0101]

Personally, I think the offense that converts more drives to points is going to win this game.

[@neilvines8821]

Go Dawgs!

[@4thandGoalBusby]

I got UGA over Bama, 31-21. I think it will be extremely sluggish early on with Bama doing their best to sell out against then run while their explosives are minimized by UGA's defense. I do think that Bama hits a few big plays late but UGA gets some points over turnovers and finally establishes the run to close it out.

[@randyjordan5521]

Bama has only given up 26 points in three games. I don't see Georgia scoring 31 on them.

[@4thandGoalBusby]

@@randyjordan5521 I'm hedging my bets on 1 or 2 short fields due to bad snaps or interceptions. Jalen Milroe has not (yet) shown consistent ability to handle pressure, and I'm guessing there will be lots of blitzing by UGA's defense. Could be wrong though but this is what I've gotten from watching these teams so far.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@4thandGoalBusby Milroe hasn't had an interception in 7 games. He has zero this year and only 6 last year. It's possible but I wouldn't bank on it.

[@randyjordan5521]

@@4thandGoalBusby If Georgia blitzes a lot, then Bama should have been designing their game plan for the last two weeks to counter that with quick outs or screen passes etc. Milroe needs to get his passes off very quickly. Or who knows, the coaches might have him just run the ball a dozen times and keep Georgia's defense off balance.

[@HunterDavisTubaPlaying]

I’m a UGA fan. I cannot pick UGA to win this game. Not confident at all

[@dannyharrell6269]

I don't really trust Carson Beck to win this game.

[@Fulcrum205]

Bama pushed the UGA front around last year. The UGA front isnt as good as last year. Bamas o-line is better. You guys need to watch Brailsford block. He is a huge upgrade from McLaughlin. The UGA linebackers let Milroe break contain last year including the run for a 1st down that let Bama ice the game. I dont think they got faster in the offseason. I think Bama wins this if they avoid mistakes. Bobo and Kirby always try to play like Iowa in big games.

[@stephenlight647]

If this did not show up today, then I was going to know the Apocalypse was upon us!

[@flansquadgaming9286]

If you want a fun look, and maybe the model messed up when I checked, but Nebraska vs Iowa ended like 3-2 lol

[@daygon128]

Their model is completely broken for games like these. It was way off last year and likely will be again this year too.

[@zacharygoo2MC]

Right now the model has Clemson scoring negative points against good defenses. Is this a potential glitch in the model, or does it think their offense is that bad?

[@childofthanos84]

Judkins from Ohio state former ole miss running back is the best in the country. He’s not flashing because he’s sharing carries with another excellent back. Also Bama 23 uga 13

[@GodOfWar187]

11-5 is certainly a score prediction, lol. It being too low aside, it essentially requires a random 2 point conversion and a safety. I get your model will fix all of that over time, but I still found that funny.

[@tylerclifton4759]

Sickos committee would love it

[@tannermoreau8541]

My thing with bama vs wisc is that nobody has really talked about the fact that van dyke went out and they couldn’t get a sustained drive going. Forcing a sub par defense to keep going in the field time and time again eventually it’s gonna wear them down when your offense and back QB is going 3 and out

[@thomasorzack5795]

Van Dyke is so-so not a big loss-only had 1 good season back in 21

[@monty80085]

I find it interesting how hyper fixated everyone is on the UGA-UK game but seems to forget what happened for 3.33 quarters in the UA-USF game.

[@Brycejugs82]

Was preaching jam miller all last year to be Bamas starting rb but Jeanty from Boise State is easily the best rb. Stats aside the kid is just special.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Relatedly, people laughing at Oregon because they struggled to stop the run vs Boise State don’t know ball.

[@bamaengineer]

I think it all hinges on Bama D line vs Georgia O line. Roll Tide!

[@austintacius]

Office Josh needs to become more common

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Believe it or not I’m actually quite common.

[@tylerstockdale9755]

I was just checking your website, and I think there’s a glitch with Ohio State’s offensive stats. It’s saying they average 394 yards per game when they average 552. Obviously their passing and rushing numbers are off too. Just wanted to give you a heads up.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Thanks for the heads-up. We’re looking into it internally and will follow up with the data provider if needed. For what it’s worth, we don’t really use total yardage (which is given as a separate team stat) in the modeling at all so it shouldn’t affect that side of things.

[@tylerstockdale9755]

@@CollegeFootballNerds no problem! Looks to me like the Marshall game from this past weekend is the issue. No stats issued for either team.

[@DaltonGarner1]

We added three proven players to help fill what we lost on offense. We picked up Ben Yurosek, Colbie Young, and London Humphries.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

A PAC 12 honorable mention tight end isn’t a replacement for Brock “currently helping me dominate fantasy football” Bowers

[@xVenova]

where is josh recording from

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

That’s a view of the Chicago River as it dumps into Navy Pier.

[@mattheww2855]

Great place for SEC takes.

[@timtapscott8737]

Big Bama fan here. Hope we win. But I just worry about keeping the ball away from uga. Jalen isn’t the best at long drives.

[@BillyGoodwin-s2i]

Dawgs 24 Alabama 20 at the end of the day Alabama still hasn't played anyone. Kirby has had 2 weeks to plan. Milroe will make some mistakes forcing the ball. Alabama can't stop the run and Georgia will pound the rock and eat up clock. My only concern is the hurricane being gone by the time kickoff happens. Don't need any excuses for this one.

[@brooksphillips2234]

@@BillyGoodwin-s2i Georgia hasn't really faced anyone either. Kentucky or Clemson isn't very good.

[@JustN0pe3]

Bobo will once again cost Georgia a big game. We need him gone. I don't care that he scored more points last season. He's garbage when it matters most. Enjoy the win Bama, I'll be surprised if it goes the other way.

[@deronthomas1566]

Watch them both score in the 30’s-40’s lol

[@DrGonzo-ms4ii]

UGA is being heavily underestimated, Bama fans call it rat poison. Choke on that Bammers!

[@dude4742]

gotta wonder how many times we'll play this year

[@dustindavis5397]

Oh this is the pre-prequel to the eventual SECCG and CFPNCG for this season…. I hope.

[@CoastalSpark23]

I still think that Ashton Jeanty may be the more complete back now, but Jam is faster and more explosive.

[@MH-0101]

Oh is he faster and more explosive? doubt it.

[@nathanstruble2177]

Oh I want an 8-6 game!!

[@evrydayamerican]

Kirby has learned from last yr. They are gonna blitz Jalen u til he proves he can beat them with his arm. When you speed Jalwn up he is up and down on if he will make the right choice. But I stand behind my Tide. If pur O line does their job we will win. RTR

[@landonduke6464]

5-11! Book it fellas!

[@hunternixonfishing2500]

Anyone who’s watched college football the last few years knows we always play like crap against Kentucky especially in Lexington. This is nothing new. Georgia has prepared for this game all off season and during the bye week. We always getup for this game. If we control the line of scrimmage and get Milroe down a bit we are wining this game. I don’t see us losing. Go Dawgs!

[@randyjordan5521]

Considering that Bama's subpar team beat Georgia last year on a neutral field, I'd give Bama the edge playing at home. If you look at Bama's personnel at every posiiton, they're as good or better than they were last year.

[@silverblade43]

I audibly laughed when I saw the computer model.

[@joshnaddor7401]

I have no idea who is going to win. Either team winning by 30 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Nevertheless, GO DAWGS!!!

[@B1G_Brother]

Over under at 48.5 is interesting

[@happynotredamefan3736]

Are you going to do Notre Dame vs Louisville?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

We didn't have time with Josh doing work travel. But Louisville is overpowered in our model. I actually think they're fools gold and ND wins it.

[@happynotredamefan3736]

@@CollegeFootballNerds Am worried about Jaden Mickey not playing

[@tylertucker1995]

RTR 💪 Bama by 50! 😂JK it’s 50/50 in my opinion!

[@kimbrown1352]

It really is...but uga plays different away. Might lose by 3 to 7 pts. Uga fan

[@MH-0101]

Since it appears there is no top 10 video. Here is mine. 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Texas 4. Tennessee 5. Ole Miss 6. Georgia 7. Alabama 8. Oregon 9. USC 10. Doesn't matter This coming week is the week I need to truly begin to solidify who the best teams are. I expect the loser of the UGA/Alabama game to potentially miss the playoffs.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

We did those backwards this week - the top ten video is coming. Blame Josh being selfish and having a “job.”

[@codyholsinger3915]

Q Judkins says hold my beer on the Jam Miller comment

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Not hot take: Judkins isn’t even the best back on his own team.

[@codyholsinger3915]

@@CollegeFootballNerds the stats so far this team say different. I know you two hate on Judkins from his yards per carry last year but have you considered that he was overworked. Take another look at his stats so far this year.

[@UGA_3PEAT]

As a Georgia fan, I want the Georgia players to know Alabama is beating georgia on every snap in every position. Georgia players just aren't man enough to handle Alabama. 😉

[@merus5275]

I thoroughly believe bama wins on defense. Close game, low score 17-14 RTR

[@LoriParker-h9f]

Roll Tide!!! 🐘🏈🔥🔥🔥

[@zugetsui9971]

In no world does georgia ever dominate alabama on the ground.

[@Peter.Young21]

Model says Miss State is going to secore -15 point against Texas. How many safeties do we need to score for the refs to give Miss State a negative score? That would be cool! Haha

[@Scuba4Steve]

Who would have thought years ago that this game doesn’t matter because they’ll probably both make the playoff anyway.

[@Saintnick9493]

It matters especially for UGA for a few reasons. Mainly this isn’t the last tough game they have. They still have Ole Miss and Texas on the road and have Tennessee at home. And the pride of being Bama’s little brother for so long.

[@Scuba4Steve]

@@Saintnick9493 you aren’t wrong but either team can lose this game

[@RB-.-]

@@Saintnick9493 Both teams have tough schedules. But they can afford to lose this and maybe 2 more games bc of that schedule.

[@joeteasley155]

Could it be possible Georgia has played 2 of the best defenses in the country?

[@brooksphillips2234]

@@joeteasley155 no! 😆

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Actually yes. UK's probably not a top 10 defense, but they're very good. They have to be because their offense is a dumpster. But Clemson's defense is outstanding (in spite of garbage time points allowed vs NC St)

[@TexasPete2013]

Betting on this game is easy money for Alabama fans … just like a PTO day

[@justaohioguy9379]

Love the show y’all definitely are bias towards sec teams I heard you say because of injuries is why they aren’t as good and losing lad and the TE I never here that brought up but dnt see the same things when other teams outside the sec have those same concerns.