Confronting Sven Carlin on Copper, Gold, Oil & The Super Bubble | Value Investing with Stijn Schmitz

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

@27:47 Have been looking forward to your thoughts on oil. Good to see it's on your radar.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks, will do!

[@AlanMwatson-xyz]

Very interesting discussion. I find these provide a lot of value, and we also get to hear a little about your actual holdings :)

[@Value-Investing]

:-) you can check my holding on my platform, 21 day money back, so feel free to check, it gives a better perspective on things I discuss here too!

[@charlysegaert1506]

Video after video, I keep on learning new things! Great content again!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@OptionData-e6b]

I have a hard time reconciling the notions of “margin of safety” and “risk first” with 40% China exposure. You have also been holding these for some time I assume: even if it doubled tomorrow, the total annualized return of the position wouldn’t be that great. If you have to wait another 5 years or more, even worse. Not sure the potential reward compensates one for the years of pain and frustration.

[@Value-Investing]

good points, but I try to balance those positions, so we are at 12% per year now, but yes, could and should have been better :-(

[@OptionData-e6b]

@@Value-Investing I was referring to the Chinese exposure specifically. Other areas of the portfolio must have certainly performed well to get to a 12% overall.

[@JamesForbes-yd4qx]

Great discussion, Sven! With rising inflation, market volatility, and the lingering effects of 2023’s financial turmoil, it’s tough to decide whether to double down on undervalued stocks or wait it out. How do you balance taking advantage of value opportunities with managing the risk of further downturns?

[@EthanExplores-g2h]

If you're not familiar with market investing tactics, you should get advice from a financial counselor.

[@petecorda]

That's why I work with one. My $520K portfolio is well-prepared for all market conditions, having grown 85% since early last year. My advisor and I are planning for this year too. In my opinion, financial advisors are among the most important professionals, just like doctors.

[@muizdh]

I could really use the expertise of an advisor like that.

[@petecorda]

Her name is “CATERINA MARY CIARLANTE”. You can research her name.

[@muizdh]

Thanks for sharing. I searched for her name and found her website. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before contacting her. Thanks again.

[@TheDannyh90]

2:30 why does everyone use the regular sp 500, Use the sp 500 total return chart , instead of x15 ur money it would stuill be x30. It gives the wrong insentive since the return is alot higher then just the sp500 chart

[@Value-Investing]

good point, but also the dividend is now 1%, and not 4% like it used to be, just something to keep in mind!

[@ondrejkonecny1878]

Splendid! I have a little tip (not recommendation). To decrease fat weight works for me fasting. I eat at 18:00 (6 p.m.) Another meal is not breakfast, but lunch at 12:00 (12 p.m.) There is a 18 hours period without food. Not recommended for a long time! But if there is a fat on body, it will makes only trivial damage. To thing better and clearly we need to be a bit hungry. Brain will trying to figure out where to find "food". Fasting causing better concentration, clear thinking in stress situation to find out right solution to survive. It is natural boost to increase intelligence! Another tip will be next time hot to increase fat weight, but I think it will be not so popular.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!!

[@ubermons]

What I also don't like is the un-nuanced view that if something is double the price than the same thing 10 years ago, you have double the risk, something like that. That does not take into account that the company could have gotten a lot better, with better prospects, better assets, better management, and thus have lower risk at a higher price.

[@PrasantCroissant]

@@ubermons Sven is giving a oversimplified hypothetical scenario to make a point for an exuberant market. The reality is definitely more nuanced like you said.

[@PonderDuke]

Yes you are right. He does say that usually and thinks that. He just forgot to mention it. You should always compare the price to the potential value creation at any point in time. For the SP500 he looks at PE and low dividend yield compared to the average. So the price went up and the value went up. But the price went up a lot more than the value went up. So higher risk of the value not being able to cover the higher prices in the future, so lower expected yield.

[@Value-Investing]

Good point, but the index can improve earning, that is a 2x, market 4x

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

U have to input "all else equal" which is implied when you listen to an economist.

[@faronskelton4085]

Thank you gentleman!

[@Value-Investing]

Our pleasure!

[@siggiAg86]

I like these interviews

[@medschoolavschool1771]

Nice video! What is your take on Reits? Ty!

[@Value-Investing]

just an interest rate game, here you go: kzbin.info/www/bejne/mF6TaISinZKchZI

[@TheMihaeli]

What are your thoughts on Celanese an Mercer? These are cyclicals, down real big, possible oporturnities.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting, let's see where we get to those...

[@sender5804]

the blurring effect is annoying

[@jonnes__4657]

I only listen... .

[@aNotoriousNerd]

I didn’t notice because I was listening.

[@tomstory8502]

I disagree.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@chrishandle2]

The comment above is a sign of the times…

[@BarsonlineOrg2013]

Great video!

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@kqh123]

Since its a 44 year old bubble it could go for another 10, 20, 40 years??

[@Value-Investing]

sure!

[@adambystron6055]

lookin forward for oil stock analysis. Hope we will see chevron copr. and devon energy :)

[@Value-Investing]

Coming soon!

[@CraigTaggart]

thanks Sven great conversation

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@ReiPago]

Awesome video, Sven is like an European Buffett 😀

[@kqh123]

Overpriced and full of salted meat?

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@cwaddle]

Keep up the good work.

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks, will do!

[@leverage2279]

Hi Sven..what is your view regarding coal in developing countries? And also in big economy countries like China and India?

[@Value-Investing]

Have to dig into that one!

[@leverage2279]

@Value-Investing thanks sven! I haven't watched the video earlier because I'm still at work, but I just commented early so that you'd notice because it's among the earliest comments 😃 I'm so excited to watch this after work! About coal, I just thought you might be interested about it because lots of people are bearish about it due to the fad on renewable energies, so it (and businesses about it) might be so cheap, but that of course still has lots value because the whole world can't just entirely start using renewable energies within a couple of years or so..

[@GehaktmoleN88]

There are a lot of net nets in the japanese market. How you think about investing in Japan Sven?

[@Value-Investing]

Yes, but they will keep the money for them

[@mathewwilson9776]

I started going through the Japanese exchanges a while back and eventually quit: no growth, no yields. Where is your future return going to come from?

[@DaExxorzist]

Show us your Track record over 10 years

[@jasonalexander7089]

You have no subscribers

[@Value-Investing]

every transaction is on my research platform since May 2018, 12% per year is the track record, feel free to check it out...

[@Okarion]

Nice!

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@ubermons]

I didn't hear any evaluation on dividend yield vs buybacks. If a company buys back stock, it will have a low dividend yield, but they can easily choose to do a dividend instead. A lot of companies have done buybacks due to tax reasons, so looking at the overall dividend yield is no good. You have to look at the free cash flow yield.

[@Value-Investing]

Strongly disagree! Buybacks suck!

[@faronskelton4085]

If issuing stock dilutes you as investor, why would buying back stock suck?

[@mathewwilson9776]

@@faronskelton4085Buybacks by default, regardless of valuation , is what sucks. Apple bought back more shares (7-10%) with a smaller buyback program in the mid-2010s (when Buffett bought) than today with their record 110b (under 3%).

[@mathewwilson9776]

@@faronskelton4085Costco has a better capital allocation strategy in this respect. It acknowledges its massive overvaluation, hoards cash, and distributes regular special dividends for you to reinvest as you see fit, as opposed to wasting the capital paying absurd multiples for its own shares.

[@heshamaboutera1847]

@@Value-Investing buy backs sucks if companies do it at higher valuation like what dollar general did in 2020 2021 and 2022 but they usually do it at high valuation which sucks...but if a company buy back at a low valuation isnt this good?

[@thewonderof06790]

Gold from 1980 to present when adjusted for inflation was a poor investment. With miners you need to sort through 40 companies for the one gem.

[@PrasantCroissant]

@@thewonderof06790 Well said!

[@Eman1900O]

I prefer bitcoin and it’s paid off very well for me

[@Value-Investing]

Agree

[@glennnielsen8054]

The key to understanding inflation is to understand what money is.

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@kqh123]

Gold is money, everything else is credit?? -JD Rockerfeller

[@glennnielsen8054]

@@kqh123 That's a really good point, but one could also argue that both could be money if there was no "cheating". One only needs to study the Roman Empire and John Law to understand there is a incentive to cheat. When one understands that money is a credit you receive for a service or good you provide in order to be able to exchange it for something else at a later date. Then one also understands that the only source of inflation is money printing, as it dilutes the value of the existing money supply. The rest is ordinary market dynamics. The inflation measures used today are flawed, as they mix ordinary market dynamics with money printing. The best hedge against inflation seems to be shares in companies that have pricing power. I don't know, but I wonder if Rockefeller's statement was moral in nature?

[@WealthyChronicle]

If we’re living in the free money era, how long can this last?

[@bernteinar906]

Still love dividends, they are still out there if you look!

[@Value-Investing]

yep!

[@Hrx84]

It is a bubble now and it was a bubble before a year. But that bubble is going up and shorters are being slauhtered every day. There are no any signs that this will ever burst. I ve never seen so hard bubble in the past. 2008 wasn't so big bubble, valuations were normal then. Now only places without bubble is China or Brazil or some other exotic place far from EU or US.

[@Value-Investing]

it is what it is!

[@Ming-wc7ng]

Stock market will crash 80% of value?

[@Value-Investing]

to value :-)

[@ricsike7842]

Why use a clickbait title?? Where's the "confronting"??

[@Viper4ever05]

who cares

[@Value-Investing]

:-))

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

​@@Viper4ever05He does.

[@khanjones9390]

​@@Value-Investing😂

[@slimjimjimslim5923]

Bubble could last 5-10 years. Just fyi 😊 you could end up waiting years for the epic recession

[@mathewwilson9776]

Nobody is waiting for anything. Didn’t he say he is fully invested? We are simply not invested in companies trading at idiotik multiples.

[@Value-Investing]

yes, it can last for long....

[@TimDEagle]

It seems that investing with the fear of being a bubble may hurt long term gains in the stock market

[@Value-Investing]

or improve them :-)

[@RamyaM-ju3il]

When Education meets blockchain! NorvenAI's the perfect storm.

[@TrailRunnerLife]

People get really butthurt when you can a bubble a bubble 😂

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@melxnieprv]

Norven AI token is the new DOGE 🔥 🔥

[@ren7sp25]

Isn't a bubble only recognized in hindsight? Otherwise no bubble can ever take form. I'll go even further... If you see a bubble forming, does that mean you need to stay out of it? No... You'll miss on the gains. But limit the risk.

[@Value-Investing]

correct, only popping makes a bubble a bubble!

[@ren7sp25]

​@@Value-Investingyes, and I added a part., sorry :) The question always remains 'when Will it pop'.

[@PrasantCroissant]

Not because they know for sure it's a bubble, but simply not cheap anymore. It could develop into a bubble into the future 1 year, 5 year, etc. but yes only hindsight can confirm. Anyway, the word "bubble" is good for headlines and views so I don't fault Sven for using it, since the actual content is valuable. Staying in a bubble to take advantage of the gains sounds really scary to me 🥹 You don't know when such things can revert. It'll be hard to sleep at night every night. Focus on fundamentals are out the window and you're stuck following the greater fool theory.

[@ren7sp25]

@@PrasantCroissant Indeed that is the risk. I think the content is always valuable btw, but I ask myself the question: yes, it 'seems' safer to buy value but in the meantime the train isn't stopping. So, I'm keeping a small ratio in the S&P bubble, let's call it that. My value picks are not taking off yet (energy, PE holdings, real estate, are all quite low but stay low).

[@PrasantCroissant]

@@ren7sp25 I see the appeal. I think Benjamin Graham said, speculation can be really exciting, fun and even profitable sometimes. If you want to play on the speculation, a prudent Investor should set aside only a small portion for speculation and play with that money separately from the larger portfolio. But keep it in separate accounts so as to not mix up the two different mindsets and strategies while investing in your main portfolio. All the best on your investing journey 👍

[@top5gamers69]

Hey Sven! What do you think of Altria Group stock? I believe it's an undervalued gem in an overvalued market. It's a great reliable business with a history of dividend increases for over 50 years and it is currently trading for a price i believe is very cheap. But I am only 18 and am very new to this so what do you think?

[@Value-Investing]

don't know much about tobacco....

[@top5gamers69]

@Value-Investing Is it going in the too hard pile? They've increased the volume of their oral tobacco by 43% last quarter in comparison to the year before.

[@BatsAndBadgers]

Comment section needs to calm down. Just watch the video or not. Be constructive

[@Value-Investing]

:-))))

[@c2225]

Companies in the SP500 can declare a dividend of 10% today. They don't do it, because they want to grow...

[@AlanMwatson-xyz]

A 10% dividend at 30-40x earnings? Lol Apple already distributes 100% of its earnings for a miserable sub-3% yield. So does Salesforce, for an even more miserable yield. You don’t seem to know what you are saying.

[@mathewwilson9776]

Dumb comment.

[@Value-Investing]

nope, maybe 2%, but that is it.

[@c2225]

Guys, they spend a ton of money on marketing and sales for growth. Salesforce without sales and marketing expense recently had a PE of 11 They all spend a ton of money on research and development. If they wanted to, they could cut jobs and become into cash machines today. Meta can shut down VR, without which it would have a PE of 22 while being a fast grower (because VR only loses money, and Instagram doesn't depend on it at all) They're not as expensive as it looks from the numbers on the surface Amazon had always had a high PE, because it is growing and reinvesting everything. Price / FCF = 20

[@c2225]

Sales and marketing and R&D can be cut in half today if needed. Meta can cut VR

[@BBmbr89]

I’m 55 with $1 million in savings. I was considering gold to hedge against inflation but am rethinking my approach after watching this video. i'm seeking suggestions to protect my savings effectively.

[@AniWalt]

There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, like diversifying into stocks, bond etc but such executions are better carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience

[@Luksphine]

My dear husband passed away in 2021, and I have around $400K from his life insurance just sitting in a bank account, earning nothing. I was advised to invest it through an advisor, and in just six months, I achieved over 80% capital growth, not including dividends. Highly recommended!

[@GaryBker]

Sounds interesting! Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@Luksphine]

I’m cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. You may consider independent financial advisors like "Victoria Louisa Saylor" I've worked with her and I'd gladly commend her exemplary service on a public post.

[@GaryBker]

thank you for putting this out, was able to spot Victoria after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience.

[@jackgoldman1]

IOUs lie, gold tells the truth. Dow $380 in 1929, $38,000 in 2024. Dow 18 ounces gold in 1929, 18 ounces 2024. One million dollars bought 50 new houses in 1964, buys 2 new houses in 2024, one if in California. Sometimes, don't buy, don't lose.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@Lerppunen]

You have to look at the total returns of the Dow with dividends, not just the index price.

[@jackgoldman1]

@@Lerppunen Also the fees and taxes, rendering the dividends moot, zero.

[@jackgoldman1]

Don't invest, hold gold, honest money. Don't hold IOUs, dishonest lying money. Protect yourself.

[@kqh123]

Peter Schiff, is that you?

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@jackgoldman1]

@@kqh123 We always revert to the median. Always. The Ponzi IOU hoax is not global. Very dangerous.

[@abemanzur6985]

lol it’s not too late to get into gold 😂

[@mattia6058]

One year, Always the same video. It Is a bubble, It Is a bubble, It Is a bubble

[@MiguelMartinezmtzzz]

But he is right. That doesnt mean this cant last much more.

[@gianlucaottani8779]

It's not the message of these videos..😅 the message is to invest in a smart way, so whatever happens in the environment, you LL be fine

[@droghtak]

And comments like this are the reason why the bubble keeps growing. The burst will be epic

[@gymgainsbeginners]

Yes? He is correct? So what’s the problem?

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

Because the bubble can/has lasted longer than a year. If it is sunny and dry for 60 days straight in Texas do u complain that the weatherman reports the weather accurately? 🤨 Don't shoot the messenger.

[@matteotardivo7010]

Sven is working super HARD in these last weeks, many videos about bubble! Lets go sven, keep delusional! sp500 +40% LAST YEAR, where is value investing sir?

[@lorenzom7237]

Sven e' prudente, mi piace per questo.

[@CoachRobbe]

This year that gentleman is doing +70% with Liberty...

[@Value-Investing]

Hard to be a value investor today, but there is a reason!

[@matteotardivo7010]

@@Value-Investing btc just did +10% from your answer! thanks sven!