The Tornado Forecasting "Cheat Code"

[@robdoesweather6758]

CHEAT CODES!!! Been the best way to forecast tornadoes this summer in the Midwest with how tough forecasts have been lately

[@Derrick6162]

Thanks so much. Very enjoyable, a must for all chasers and spotters.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

FANTASTIC!! Your presentations are put together sooo well, Trey. Thank you for taking the time to put this discussion together. GREATLY appreciated and take care!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much, Tal! I appreciate the support, as always!

[@PezexWeather]

I watched this back when posted and I didnt know much but now that I have learned more its a great video!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@kevinjoyce285]

I'm not sure if you included this, but I've been digging into chase logs from different chasers and different setups and it seems March 14, 2021 was another 3CAPE setup as it produced a few brief tornadoes plus landspouts near Trenton, NE. 3CAPE can help spot those localised events quite well

[@jonkjon]

👍 Another great video! I really look forward to these. Thanks!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@AtOddsAlways]

Absolutely fascinating and a parameter I wish I'd known about during my chase days (although it didn't exist, at the time ;-) ). Your YT postings are a source of endless education and enjoyment. Thanks!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate that!

[@zal88]

Thank you for this video as well! Keep making content this channel deserves more views for all the work you do! I first found out about your channel through watching Ryan Hall ya'll and your channel deserves as many views as his! And I've been watching alot of your older and newer content just for overall educational purposes to try and read the weather better and I've learned alot so far! Would be nice if you made a video of just in depth detail about all the charts you look at and a breakdown of every little line, arrow, and each symbol are for. So like the RAP graph you look at what does the green line represent, the red line, the white dotted line and the teal line on both left and right side of the graph mean?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for the kind words! I actually have a full series on how to read those skew-T charts, and I’m working on finishing a weather map analysis series, as well. You can find those in the Playlists tab on the channel.

[@krzy1867]

Definitely the absolute most stout example of 3CAPE being important is the Morton TX case, the storm pretty much died as soon as it moved out of the small bullseye of 3CAPE it has

[@krzy1867]

*had

[@krzy1867]

At least in my opinion

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Looking at the archived mesoanalysis, it doesn’t look like there was a super notable 3cape bullseye near that storm. I think tornadogenesis in the Morton case was more fueled by favorable storm interactions more than your typical tornadogenesis processes. However, I’m sure that case was not lacking solid low-level instability, and there easily could’ve been a localized little spot of enhanced low level parameters, including 3cape, near that storm.

[@jtleniger]

It’d be interesting to see an example where other signs point to tornado potential (lots of low level shear and fat CAPE) but low 3CAPE and no tornado, assuming that’s how it works?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

3CAPE is not the end all be all, but low 3CAPE means weak low-level thermodynamics, which often yields less robust updrafts. This can hamper tornado potential. You’ll see this a lot in the Southeast, but the significant low-level shear can often compensate.

[@kainhall]

14:45 all the other soundings have had high shear and SRH......... but this thing DOES NOT! . also.... ive always wondered why, in this case, the yellow line seems correct..... but then the blue line on the hodo-graph seems backwards . the winds on the sounding part show the winds coming from the south west (and moving north east) but the blue line on the hodo seems to move INTO the wind VS with it . (or even how the green line does a circle.... yet the winds are still moving the same direction) . . i always thought the hodo-graph = where the weather balloon moves (from a top down view... like if you were a satellite) but this is CLEARLY not the case . . . also.... the hodograph shows ANTI!! cyclonic circulation (clockwise) but that turns into a COUNTER CLOCKWISE cyclonic rotation . . . im sure i could go through your series on soundings and figure it out but i didn't catch the reason on the first 2 viewings LOL . . . id really love it if you could tell me why im wrong, confused, and possibly a bit stupid LOL

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Remember that the hodograph is not just showing wind direction, it's also showing wind speed...The reason the blue portion comes back in toward the center is because the speeds are decreasing significantly at that level. Take a look at the wind barbs at the top part of the sounding; note how the wind speed at 300 mb is 125 kt but decreases significantly as you go up from there (topmost barb shows 35 kt). As for the green portion making a circle, that has to do with both direction (you can see some slight counterclockwise turning, a.k.a. "backing," of the winds in the green layer) and speed (decreases from 25 kt just above 700 mb to 20 kt at 500 mb). As far as the hodograph being a representation of where the weather balloon moves, you can kind of think of it that way, but like you said, that's not entirely true. Hopefully this isn't too math-y here, but the hodograph is plotted on a polar grid (a grid of concentric circles where the coordinates are distance r and angle ϴ from the origin), whereas you looking down from above would be in Cartesian coordinates (the typical x,y grid that we're conditioned to think in). That basically means that the hodograph is going to look a little different than if it were plotted on a typical grid where x and y values would be east-west distance and north-south distance from the origin, respectively. Finally, for the hodograph showing clockwise circulation...that's not really the net result. Yes, the winds are "veering" with height - in other words, turning clockwise - in the low levels, but the net result is cyclonic, or counterclockwise rotation. Think of an updraft as a pencil stood upright on a desk in between your hands (your right hand represents the wind at the surface, and your left hand represents the winds aloft). Let's say the winds at the surface are out of the south - i.e. your right hand moves away from you - and winds aloft are out of the north - i.e. your left hand moves toward you. The pencil is going to spin counterclockwise, even though the "winds" (the directions your hands are moving) have technically "veered" with height. Not the best example, but the thing to remember is that veering (clockwise turning) winds with height in a given layer means cyclonic (counterclockwise) rotation of an updraft within that layer, and backing (counterclockwise turning) winds with height in a given layer means anticyclonic (clockwise) rotation of an updraft within that layer. Hope this helps; sorry if I rambled a bit...let me know if you have any other questions.

[@fluffymittens24]

I'm learning something new about our amazing atmosphere. How does a 3cape of 88 produce an F4 and the 3cape of 200 produce a smaller F rating as in the first example?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Kinematics are generally most important (low-level wind shear, etc.), and 3CAPE isn't necessarily a discriminator between violent and non-violent tornadoes, but it can help in identifying areas of more elevated tornado potential in a fairly homogeneous environment.

[@fluffymittens24]

@ConvectiveChronicles that helps. Another question is wind shear made up of hot and cold and does the degree at which they intersect increase potential for tornadic activity?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@fluffymittens24 No, wind shear is solely the change in wind speed and direction with height; it doesn't include temperature (although veering winds with height indicates warm advection, and backing winds with height indicates cold advection).

[@Munzlingerblogs]

YES! Definitely enjoyed the video man!!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; so glad you enjoyed it!

[@torahislife]

Great info. I've had hit and miss success using highest STP in areas with highest DPs (and would like more consistency. I know Im missing something... Why specifically, does my approach fall short relative to this approach?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The reason you may not be having as much consistency with your method is that STP is merely a composite parameter and doesn't mean a lot without context. In mathematical terms, STP is simply a multiplication of instability, SRH, wind shear, LCL heights, and CIN. So in other words, you can have really high STP indicative of strong tornadoes, but without properly assessing the environment to make sure everything else is there for tornadoes (e.g. storm mode, low-level instability, etc.), STP means nothing. For example, you could have high STP, but maybe a linear storm mode unfavorable for tornadoes. Also, since STP is a composite parameter, you could have one parameter "compensate" for another one that might be lacking to still yield a high STP value, when in reality, tornadoes might be unlikely (e.g. CAPE could be huge but SRH might be limited...we know this combo is generally unfavorable for tornadoes, but you still might get a high STP value because of the huge CAPE value). That's why I always urge folks getting into severe weather forecasting to avoid using composite parameters like SCP and STP, as they oversimplify the environment and are much less effective than taking a holistic, ingredients-based approach to forecasting.

[@torahislife]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you for your explanation. That was helpful. Agree with the holistic perspective providing a context. Is there any chance you could do a live stream forecasting(s) using CAMs on the 1 & 2 day outlooks to demonstrate your method for target selection?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

​@@torahislife That's not a bad idea, I might do that at some point. My forecast discussions give pretty much the exact method I use to forecast for severe weather; I try to stay away from the CAMs as much as possible, as they have lots of issues and often do a poor job of handling the environment.

[@aaronjones1469]

Awesome video. 👍🙂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@colin7244]

Could you try doing the meso archive analysis over the February 2021 winter storm because Im really curious on the how the wind shear, trough, and low pressure occured

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I'm not the best at winter weather forecasting/analysis, but I can add it to the list.

[@colin7244]

@@ConvectiveChronicles but you remember last year in February right?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yes. I live in Oklahoma, I definitely remember it.

[@colin7244]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Some wind chills readings in Oklahoma were I believe under -50 which is really cold