Meteorological Breakdown: The Hollister, OK, Tornadic Supercell - April 30, 2024

[@zarhle1]

Yessir! This will surely be another Convective Chronicles classic. I’ll always remember how nuts the weather community went that evening. Nobody was expecting such a ridiculous environment to set up, let alone a supercell to take advantage of it and produce some of the most insane radar imagery of all time. You’ll obviously dive into it, but the potency of the environment was almost hard to believe when I looked closely at mesoscale analysis that evening. All around a very exciting event for weather enthusiasts, especially as it harmlessly went through a field with little to no impacts. Thanks Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, once storm initiation concerns were squashed, it was clear a significant tornado event was possible given the parameter space.

[@zarhle1]

@@ConvectiveChroniclesOh and now that I’ve almost finished your video, I was surprised that your analysis indicated while this tornado was indeed likely a strong tornado, it wasn’t likely as strong as delta V would lead you to believe. That’s why I love your videos, there’s always something new I learn from you.

[@benpekarek382]

​@@zarhle1indeed, always learning new things from our boy trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@zarhle1 Yeah, I always see delta-v being misused when discussing tornado intensity, so I thought it was really important to show how we can better estimate tornado intensity from radar data using vrot and the Smith et al (2020) method.

[@bluetoad6848]

I'm glad to see another meteorological breakdown video. I can't get enough of these.

[@AllanEvansOfficial]

Trey, you done it again! Fantastic synopsis. Love case studies of surprise events. It’s amazing how the atmosphere can squeeze out a tornado in a nontraditional fashion from time to time.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@willhutton1516]

I remember this! N8 Snyder was fascinated by its structure and behavior on radar!

[@Stollnews]

Great analysis and thanks for explaining the delta-v/vrot stuff, looked way more intense than it actually was. I also love the anticyclonic tornado and its behavior, really interesting storm as a whole

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, this was one of the more interesting storms in a long time.

[@JS-wz3qv]

I love these case studies/meteorological breakdowns! Please keep making them!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Lots more on the way!

[@JS-wz3qv]

@@ConvectiveChronicles You’re welcome! These videos are appreciated, enjoyable, and entertaining!

[@michaelespeland]

As always, great breakdown

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@zal88]

always a great day when i can learn a little more from trey! great video

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@zal88]

@@ConvectiveChronicles you're from oklahoma right? was it like a "when in rome" being in oklahoma that got you into forcasting the weather or just woundering what got you into your career with weather?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

So I was actually born and raised in Arizona. I’ve been into severe weather for as long as I can remember…I think what got me into weather was a 48 Hours documentary on the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak. After that, I was hooked. I moved to Oklahoma to get my Master’s at the OU beginning in 2018 and have been in Oklahoma ever since.

[@zal88]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thats awesome man! and sure do know your weather!

[@wazzpqazzza]

that echo hole is just beautiful

[@JosephYostStorms]

Ngl the "back of napkin math" part gave me a chuckle

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I did the math for that literally on the back of a napkin, so I rolled with it in my script😂

[@hunterboik6846]

I think the May 1989 Carolinas outbreak would make a good subject for a case study. I haven’t found any videos discussing the meteorological setup for the outbreak or what made this outbreak a violent one.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I’ll add it to the list!

[@stephenlenker7854]

Fantastic work once again. Definitely one of the more mind blowing events of the already pretty insane year. Outside of this year, would you consider taking a look at the 1981 West Bend anticyclonic F4? It is one of the strangest things I’ve ever heard of and I would love to hear your thoughts on it.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yes, that tornado is very unique; I’ll add it to the list.

[@LeviW133]

Awesome video Trey man I remember this storm

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@eltiofresca4998]

Finally an analysis of this tornado, def one of the weirdest i've seen!

[@AlwaysChasingStorms]

Are we sure that this storm wasn't a tiny hurricane?

[@silentbob3208]

This is one i'll never forget from this season when I tracked it as it was happening. I never saw anything that looked like a land-hurricane like that in my life.

[@jenniferkubik478]

Truth is that back in late March I saw it in a vision. Another one may occur next year sometime that will hit a populated area.

[@alexanderfeldman8161]

@@jenniferkubik478 lol........

[@giantdwarfulf]

This anti cyclonic tornado had its own hook echo, that’s crazy. Very good video as always!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! That anticyclonic tornado was pretty incredible; rare to see an example that intense outside of simulations

[@BruceDeluxe]

I just can't get enough of these analytical breakdowns :)

[@TRGTornado]

This is one of the more interesting tornadoes, if not the most interesting tornado this year! (So far) Great video!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@AlwaysChasingStorms]

Interesting to see what we get in December. December is starting to get a reputation.

[@JKCollinsWx]

WOO!! Another Meteorological Breakdown, super excited!

[@universeBass808]

I remember tracking this with buddies and thought “man can’t wait for CC to do an episode on this”

[@ThunderChasers]

I'll never forget this tornado. We sat and watched it. I think I commented on your previous video about the season. But, I did my best to get as close as I could. We sat and watched the tornado until the RFD surged. I watched the grass and we immediately left. One thing about chasing, having a navigator is critical. It is so easy to get caught up in the moment. Especially at night. What a tornado.

[@somewhatlegend5788]

I watched this happen live, ive never seen a storm behave the way this one did.

[@JaredTrupp]

It was definitely a bit of an uncomfortable chase, I wasn’t expecting anything like that. I am a bit upset that I didn’t try to get any photos of the anticyclonic tornado, but it would have been useless because it was raining so hard that I couldn’t see more then 10ft in front of my car.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, I can imagine it got a little dicey at times. You had some of the best shots of that tornado; awesome work

[@powerant360gaming4]

This tornado was one of the most interesting for me this year

[@DustinTheNow]

Been really looking forward to this one. Thanks for posting!

[@claybarnett6350]

YESSSS been waiting on this vid!

[@mitchconner2021]

This was a wild storm. I've seen the remnants of a Hurricane get stronger over Oklahoma. It happened in 2007 but this was crazier than that.

[@MightyMuffins]

Ok this will have me caught up on the case events again. This event for me Trey is the most surprising event of the 2024 year as of September 2024. This event looks so.....meeehhh for the most part but my god did this have in the end the most quirky and coolest tornado of the entire year. Yes we had the Greenfield and Minden tornadoes in terms of strength and power....Minden being my tornado of the year and it's not close, but this event had the cool tornado factor for quite literally the obvious reason....the Anticyclonic BEAST of a tornado. Well....yes and also the 'U-turn tornado" as I have named it since. As you said the set up was fairly nebulous overall on a large scale pattern but yeah the lower levels and thermodynamics and kinematics were really good but it was a matter if it would all come together. I actually didn't even think about considering this event to the 2023 event but yeah in a way it kind of was. Interesting. Now as for the main supercell, I do remember watching the ABC7 stream of the event from here in Albany NY and I remember one of their chasers had a amazing view of the dual mesos embedded in the lightning. I can't remember who it was but I absolutely remember the Cameron Nixon photo. That was so sick and that dude is on EVERYTHING good. As for that tornado that as you mentioned starting out so close to the Fredrick radar, I remember mentioning that on X that it was incredible how good the resolution was of this tornado and the fact you were getting a beam height of 500ft 10 miles out. Usually even on a tilt one you can't get that lucky and 10 miles out the beams may push 1000ft already pending where you are but this was so legit. Oh and the fact it basically u-turned 180 degrees was something I never seen before that pronounced. Oh and yeah, the weak echo hole this had was likely the most insane one of 2024. You could see it on ALL the tilts and this was a pretty fat wedge too. hehe I do remember people saying this was a EF5 tornado if it hit anything and I was like....no....no it wasn't. The Vrot was around what you said....maybe would have been a Ef2/Ef3 or so. It was lucky nothing was around this and I know I had the News9 stream up too at the time. (I prefer ABC 7 most). It was DAMN LUCKY that stayed in the field and mostly only hit a silo that the ABC and News 9 teams came across on the main road but that was it. As for the anticyclonic Loveland tornado....that was the coolest tornado as I said of 2024 and maybe in the last couple years. It was so quirky and the fact it was pretty damn big and lasted so long was wild. Oh and the fujiwara effect of 2 OF THEM......I mean come on. You almost never see tornadoes like that and yeah it danced around a lot. I was also so shocked as you said this formed behind the main RFD....I remember saying that I can't remember seeing that as the usually when the RFD passes, it's basically done for tornadoes behind it. Trey, as you said, I think we may never know why this tornado did what it did. I mean we don't really still know much about anticyclonic tornadoes other than the more obvious ways they for but stupid insane outliers like this and the EF5 paper in the 80s....I mean....this one just may be a one of a kind event we likely may not see again for another 40 years +. Let's just say....."Hey Tornado....it was a pleasure to watch you do some really cool METR shit that we have no idea how you did it".

[@tmaks2]

This was supercell of the year on radar

[@binguette]

It was pretty crazy and almost looked like a hurricane, but look up "Alta Vista 2024 Tornado Radar" The hook was absolutely insane

[@tmaks2]

@@binguettethat was forsure another contender. Good call! Seems like forever ago 😅

[@binguette]

@@tmaks2 yeah fr

[@myria9644]

I remember this day, I watched the westmoreland supercell from a good spot in town and then my backyard in Topeka

[@Right-Handed_Neutrino]

I remember watching this live on News 9 with David Payne, Amy Swope & Cassie Heiter. It was a weird storm.

[@KellysWXcoverage]

Another amazing breakdown (even my friend who knows nothing about weather understood this)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Heck yeah! Thank you!

[@envis10n12]

Thanks trey!

[@kaminky228]

Such a peculiar and amazingly stunning event to have spectated live.

[@evanfryberger]

I remember covering this storm, was flabergasted pretty for its entire life cycle. Had so many questions and it feels good to have a very detail answer. Thanks Trey!

[@spcoll4348]

What a concise breakdown. Superb. I remember everyone going crazy over the Fujiwara effect, and I'm guessing this would have been way too dangerous of a storm to chase up close. The anticyclonic twister is the one that really captured my curiosity. Amazing breakdown sir.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Yeah, it would have been a really dicey situation if you were up close to these tornadoes at night, as they displayed some extremely deviant behaviors.

[@junjiehun8410]

The highest vrot of this tornado actually reached 124kt in quadweather, second highest ever for a Nexard radar. But it didnt mean it reached EF5 intensity either. The radar estimate intensity algoritityis probably as flawed if not more than EF scale. If you use it you would find Greenfield only had 50kt vrot when it had 318 mph winds on DOW7 which ought to be EF0-1 based on algorithm. So be careful to use this algorithm.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Greenfield was quite a bit farther from the radar than Hollister was, so the technique would not work as well in determining the intensity of the near-surface vortex. With all due respect, I interpreted radar data for my entire Master’s thesis, and the technique used is an appropriate technique to estimate low-level vortex intensity.

[@krzy1867]

Watched this when it came out but forgot to comment, incredible breakdown of a storm that had meteorologists from all around the country (or even the world) geeking uncontrollably while also having a mental breakdown in tears. Also, N8 Snyder has his livestream up from this event where he pulled up velocity and reflectivity cross section scans, and it was possible to see the tornadic vortex all the way up through pretty much the entire supercell. The livestream is simply titled “when covering weather becomes unexplainable”

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, this storm was incredibly unique...not often do we get such a high-resolution look of a strong, deep tornado vortex. An absolute gold mine for studying.

[@duskmoon181]

I was wondering if you could do a breakdown on the St. Joseph County EF2 that occured here in Michigan back on August 6th. It happened around 8 AM in the morning and had peak windspeeds estimated at 115 mph.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I can add it to the list

[@joseph-frankbrocchus6575]

I liked this video / I didn’t even remember this storm / I had a question, about the mesocyclone // I do not know very much about one, I had read somewhere that they can sometimes reach all the way to the ground? If that’s the case and there’s no tornado being produced what would the weather be like ? If you were in a house or car, would it be similar to experiencing a derecho ? Thanks

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! A mesocyclone reaching the ground would be a tornado…a tornado is essentially an extension of the mesocyclone. I’ve chased a few tornadoes that were basically the entire mesocyclone on the ground, and those tornadoes were quite large.

[@dagger1-140]

Just discovered the channel. The clear and thorough explanations and tons of references and visuals were fantastic. I’ll be watching more!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@PhotoStormMediaOfficial]

Twisters movie breakdown, when? 😀

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Not sure

[@MeteorologyByJW]

Finally! I made an edit in this tornado a few months ago, didn’t know to much about it. Now I know much more thanks for the video!

[@andyshriner5443]

Haha. The onesie outlook .

[@FeRu.Raprodukcja]

Hey Trey. Thanks for amazing Breakdown of this very unique Supercell. I remember watching this on radar and I was truly amazed by how it looks and how rotation sig behaved. This SC looked like miniature Hurricane or maybe more fitting will be just Mesocyclone SC without big rain/hail core on frontside... When i found photos and videos of this structure and tornado I was floored again. This is just unbeliveable how much mother nature can still suprised us and how some small changes in conditions can produce something so unique. This tornado fortunately didn't impact more populated area and didn't get higher rating because I'm sure it could be rated as Significant or even violent after just seeing velocity couplet wich looked so impressive. Anyway Great work and I'm hungry for more :D Cheers brother ;)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! It goes to show how the difference between a bust and a big event can be so small at times. Anyway, hope you’re hanging in there and doing ok.

[@alexhedden1724]

Great video Trey! Looking forward to the rest of the seasons tornadoes!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@piconick79]

Hey trey that thumbnail reflectivity sounding looks like what i thought a tornado would have looked like on radar when I was a kid!!😂 I hope you are doing well! I was on an extreme tornado tour with you at the end of April last year (my dad and i were from Australia)....im so close to finishing high school and then i get to start my meteorological studies at university!!! Thanks for inspiring me and also the great content! i really enjoy the meteorological breakdowns!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Hey Matthew, thanks for the kind words…I’m so happy to hear you’re doing well! You’re going to kill it at university…congrats on almost being done with high school, and best of luck as you move on to the next level! You know where to find me if you have any questions on what you’re learning in class…I’ve been through the grind myself, so I’m always here to help!

[@piconick79]

@ConvectiveChronicles thank you soo much!!!!!

[@acedrew1233]

The HRRR did horribly with this event. I remember looking at every other CAM showing convection but the HRRR didn’t, but convective temperature + dryline circulation was going to be enough ascent for storms. Saw all the tornadic supercells!

[@kevinjoyce285]

Unfortunately didn't get to watch all this last night Really appreciated how in depth you went with it, as this was a VERY confusing case. I expect this to be a prime example of different situations like this on the future, and also the radar scans are incredible. I'm really glad the violent winds didn't reach ground level, or else we would've seen something rather bad One question, what was your first reaction to those velocities? Mine was "what." i just watched in amazement and fear as i prayed for the people in the path of this if there were any houses or outbuildings

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Honestly, my first reaction to seeing this tornado on radar that night was anger in myself that I wasn’t able to forecast this better and get our tour group on it. We were up in SE Kansas, which was a mistake. But, I was definitely also impressed by those velocities as I watched it unfold, and perhaps even more impressed by the unique behaviors this storm displayed.

[@kevinjoyce285]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, i mean Kansas and Oklahoma both performed on this day, I'm not sure which target i would pick but knowing what happened in SW Oklahoma, i would've definitely went for them. It seems like this area produced two exceptionally impressive tornadoes (Duke) and this, very interesting and I'm very excited for Duke if you are doing that!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@kevinjoyce285 Thankfully, we were there for Duke! That was an amazing storm and one I will be covering in a future video.

[@StevenHousewright]

Was working my part-time evening job at Walmart that night - in Alabama. But, was watching the local OK news as it happened. What an incredible night and the meteorologists were spot on with their warnings. Thanks Trey!

[@jenniferkubik478]

When the Oklahoma tornado drought ended. I was amazed at how many tornadoes Oklahoma had this year. 2025 could be more of the same with the drought being broken this year.

[@exaltedb]

What I remember most of this storm on radar was that deviant motion you described at 15:50. Looked very strange seeing it snap westward the way it did

[@lovesosa4751]

Woo!!

[@mxb1337]

This one and the one from near Robert Lee, TX this year were such oddballs. Thanks, Trey!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That TX mesoscale stretch including Hawley and Robert Lee is next on my case study list!

[@mxb1337]

​@ConvectiveChronicles no way! Your dedication is greatly appreciated

[@sahebplays3589]

Hey Trey I really liked this video of this event, particularly the zone of ascent mentioned prior! But as per always in an interesting topic I like to challenge myself and like to play the wildcard, that I do believe the Hollister tornado exhibited violent intensity through my analysis and calculations, so here below I will reason it: My first simpler approach is using what Meteorologist Andy Hill talked about as the Windspeed change with height calculation which predicts a 10% reduction for every 100ft AGL (varies with surface roughness abd tornado dynamics) Calculating from 500ft downwards to 100ft I eventually come with 200ft to 100ft : 10% of 189.5 mph = 18.9 mph 189.5 - 18.9 = 170.6 mph for 100 ft AGL. 2nd is just using the theory that of width-intensity correlation, that a tornado of 0.5 mi, whilst not all wide tornadoes are violent, the broader circulation could support stronger updrafts and intense wind fields like El Reno, particularly given such a tight vertical stacking of vorticity between each radar beam correlating to a deep weak echo hole, also present in example of Greensburg where the tornado was also tilted partially due to factors such as strong background shear and orbiting, and the tornado production type (obviously seen through the erratic occlusion behaviour that the tornado detached from its mesocyclone and so became stretched also). Lastly, maybe the most confident one, is using Wurman's Windspeed decay with height (logarithmic wind profile model) V (h) = Vr . ln (h/z0) / ln (r/z0) Where V(h) is windspeed at height Vr windspeed measured at referenced height z0 is surface roughness length Plugging in the values I get at 100ft AGL windspeeds of 202.8 mph. If I get a mean of the two calculations it would still be within 185 violent intensity range potentially. Just was very happy to see this case study so I did my own study, although I respect your analysis, again thank you! @Convective Chronicles

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you…even with a lack of damage indicators, we likely would’ve seen some sort of ground scouring if it did have violent winds. Perhaps we can add a little to the winds determined by radar at ~500 ft, but I’m just not sure we have enough evidence to call this tornado violent

[@sahebplays3589]

@@ConvectiveChronicles that is a fair point, but also using historical data, other tornadoes have exhibited minimal either in visibility or location wise any ground scouring, that are also considered violent, one example is El Reno has little visible ground scouring as it traversed wet, vegetated farmland (although from satellite view into certain areas some was visible). Dimmitt Tx tornado 1995 F4 with Doppler measuring winds up to 230 mph, ground scouring was minimal. Katie-Wynnewood tornado did not produce much ground scouring although believed due to the path over more stable ground and less loose soil. Theres a few more like this such as one of the Pilger tornadoes, Rochelle Fairdale through certain wedge stages of its life did not whilst other occasions it was very visible and the same goes for Andover F5. I did ask Ethan Moriarty quite a while back and he did say it was difficult to say how and why on the opposite scale, how so much deep ground scouring occurred with the Philadelphia EF5. But also Hollister exhibited similar behaviour to the ElDorado tornado which was deviant highly and likely titled, but also condensed into a large wide tornado. I guess you should make a whole video on ground scouring as it's a very dynamic topic.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

[@sahebplays3589]

@@ConvectiveChronicles well it's a difficult topic 😅 tornado vortex damage and vortex dynamics are really weird you can get different outputs on the same situation, like when some tornadoes because of their orientation, type i.e multi vortex vs drill bit, and rear inflow jet can do significant damage to houses despite missing it, and sometimes however strong they are they can do next to nothing to houses only a block away from the most intense damage like in Rochelle Fairdale tornado. We're gonna have to wait for another event like this to back this one up.

[@isthisagoodyoutubehandle]

Oh thank god I was hoping an actual meteorologist would eventually release a video diving into this one sooner or later.

[@nighthawk2174]

I wish we had mobile doppler radar measurements of this tornado it would have been jaw dropping i'm sure

[@zacharysmithandguitars355]

I remember tracking this supercell on radar and I was blown away by what i was seeing on radar

[@wiktoriarasaa7505]

oh ive been waiting so long for my favourite brilliant meteorolgist to break down Hollister mystery! Thank you!

[@ryguy9664]

The amount of intensity and depth this video went in was even greater than that of the Hollister's weak-echo column Amazing work and answered so many of my questions. Watching the event in real time made me feel like I was watching a piece of what my town of Grand Island felt before my time (luckily without immense loss and casualties)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Very fortunate this didn’t turn into a Grand Island situation had there been more populated towns in the way.

[@Joe-j5j1u]

Yup this was insane. Watched N8 Snyder live and we were all speechless lol

[@hunterhurleywx]

I've learned so much, and will continue to learn from videos like this and Nixons videos. Very thankful for individuals like yourself who share your wealth of knowledge to all of us eager to learn!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That means a lot man, thank you!

[@noahlambert4176]

Thanks for making this. Crazy to watch live

[@Simoran]

Thank you for clarifying on gate to gate shear (delta V) not equating to tornadic strength, at least not directly. It's always been a point of frustration for me when I feel the need to explain that radar data is very helpful, especially in this beautiful supercell where it was very close to the radar site, but that radar can't determine a tornado's rating or accurate wind speed on its own.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, the misuse of delta-v to estimate tornado intensity is something I see so often, so I thought it was really important to explain how we more accurately can use radar data to estimate tornado strength using vrot and the methods in the Smith et al (2020) paper.

[@kevinjoyce285]

Insane. That's all i can say.

[@zacharysmithandguitars355]

This supercell has a beast of a tornado prouder

[@EthanbolziccoWX]

Been waiting for this one

[@UmmTacos]

I always enjoy these breakdown videos! I always learn so much. Thanks!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@tornadoclips2022]

Yeah this one was weird Great video!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@Oliver_11_the_little_western]

Uuuuuuuuyuuuh

[@Oliver_11_the_little_western]

._. Good thing the violent tornado wasn't long lived enough to get to colcord ok

[@Oliver_11_the_little_western]

Oh wait it's in the west

[@Oliver_11_the_little_western]

Phew

[@StormTrackerRed]

1st and amazing start

[@clutchthecinnamonsergal8493]

This tornado was so clearly non violent at ground level.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Did you watch the video? I discuss this in full.

[@aman_s_96]

​@@ConvectiveChroniclesI think, for some reason, people just like to point out things about video without context, without even watching the video.

[@tobiasyoder]

I’m always so impressed with the historical analogs you find. Do you just have a wicked memory for this stuff or some special way of researching to find them?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I do pretty extensive research for these videos, and I also scan Twitter pretty hard after each event. There are so many smart people who make really good observations on these events, so if I see an interesting tidbit about an event, I’ll make note of it and then go down the research rabbit hole