Forecast Discussion - June 23, 2024 - Rare Elevated Tornado Risk for the Northeast

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A geographically unique setup is forecast to take place today across parts of Northeast. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, as well as southwest Maine and far eastern New York. As a shortwave trough approaches, discrete supercells should develop along a prefrontal trough, ahead of which a moist, unstable environment exists. Mid-level lapse rates will be on the weaker side, which could temper updraft strength to some degree, but strong low-level shear should foster an elevated tornado and damaging wind risk with any more robust discrete supercells.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
1:51 Current observations
13:05 Model analysis
27:41 Wrap-up

[@nalla1782]

I storm chased in Oklahoma for a week this May, and I go to school in Vermont. It’s a very weird feeling having the tornado threat come up to me while I’m just trying to do my summer classes!

[@junefirst]

It was an interesting day! Definitely a higher-end event for us that grew up in New England. The tornado risk I suspect was limited by those weak lapse rates. Shear wasn’t quite enough to overcome it. 6/1/2011 is a good example of what great streamwise shear can do in weaker lapse rate environment. Great work as always, Trey! It was great finally getting to meet you the other day in Nebraska. -Ethan

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Ethan! Great finally meeting you, as well! Very interesting setup indeed; I think if we had just slightly better thermos we might have had a more potent outcome with the kinematics that were in play. Still an impressive setup for the region, and it was very interesting watching it unfold.

[@danielwieten8617]

Seeing a new forecast discussion gives me the same feeling as comfort food

[@laurendefazio5651]

Thank you, Trey!!! As always, this was so thorough and super helpful.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Good luck today!

[@enidp1277]

Stay safe to everyone in the risk area! Keeping an eye out here too in Eastern Ontario/Western Quebec.

[@MightyMuffins]

OH snap Trey cooking a discussion for my neck of the woods. Coolio. Literally in the worst chasing areas you can imagine with all the trees. I am staying put for now in Albany and won't go maybe an our away at most. I never chased VT/NH ever anyway so that's not where I will go. I usually like my 1 hour radius around Albany here. Plus back to back 12 hour overnight shifts not even 20 hours after I come back from the 6 day plains trip hasn't helped. XD All depends on cloud cover and how renegade some of these storms can be. This truly is a one in 10 year set up for the Northeast. It's INSANELY rare to get SRH values THIS DAMN HIGH and STPs in the 3-4s. That for us is like an "Oklahoma May outbreak potential" for our region. :P Trey that region of VT/NH East of the Champlain Valley is like......East and SE of Oklahoma City/Norman...you really can't chase it.

[@raymondguilbeault4585]

Yay finally a video on my part of the country I'm in the 5% in Cohoes but just over the County line in Troy NY theirs 30% wind and 10% tornado

[@offsertraline]

stay safe fellow new england residents

[@georgemousmoules2173]

We're getting excited and nervous here in NH!!

[@dragnflei]

I saw the slight risk noted last night and was surprised to see the tornado threat so high. Thanks for the video, hope you feel better soon.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; definitely making some progress but it was a rough one.

[@Sinnistering]

Thank you so much for this video! I was thinking last night how I hope Convective Chronicles releases one considering the unusual and uncommon situation, so I can learn a bit about what the setup conditions are.

[@jamez_3824]

Currently positioned in Fryeburg, ME for mobile SkyWarn reporting. First time in a while I've gone for a chase up here! We don't get much action let alone this high of a risk for Maine.

[@SammyWx]

Decided to stick with central NY as my target area for today. Severe risk is more conditional here but the terrain up in New England is horrific for chasers. Nothing but dense forest and hills up there making for really bad visibility. Tornado risk is low here. But if there is one I’ll have a much better chance of actually seeing it

[@LeviW133]

Great video Trey 😄👍 keep up the good work

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@sahebplays3589]

I definitely see potency in this event, closely but not entirely met with may 31 1985 where despite the good setup, spc may lack a little confidence due to the irregularity of northeast significant events, but ultimately we will see that supercell threat coincided with geographic terrain to produce several tornadoes, I do worry the lack of a hatched risk may mean the lack of expectation for one odd strong tornado, (although mesoscale discussions and watches can provide that detail proceeding the event) @ConvectiveChronicles

[@bluetoad6848]

Very rare to see a enhanced risk at the northeast. I hope everyone there will take all warnings serious. Tomorrow storms may be significant, with a derecho appearing to be possible in the upper midwest. (From Minnesota to Wisconsin)

[@slayer18726]

YEEESSSSSS TREY IS HERE!!!!!!! Lol sorry bout that, I got way too excited to see a upload today

[@paradoxicalpoet1525]

I took photos of completely debarked trees south of Robert Lee TX from the 5/3 2024 tornado. If you do a meteorological breakdown of the 5/2-5/4 Texas tornados you are more than welcome to use those photos. Awesome video as always.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Definitely going to cover that stretch in an upcoming case study; I think I may focus on May 2 since the tornadoes that day were the most impactful, but I might touch on May 3/4 as well.

[@Meathead72]

With subtle forcing, the storm mode should remain discrete, which concerns me. Due to the poor lapse rates, storms will likely have to go through several mergers before they can complete tornadogenesis today.

[@kristinadill5613]

Trey “I have a cold” Are you sure you haven’t just been really sad about tour season ending? 🧐😂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha it’s definitely sad seeing it come to an end! It was an awesome season…but I’m thankful to have a break now.

[@user-nl5vj9jv1h]

So, what do you think about Tuesday in OH? The SPC says I’m under a MRGL for that day, but I’m still quite worried. I’ve been seeing some curved hodographs but also a very stout cap. Definitely paranoid about tornadoes on Tuesday.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Greatest threat will be off to your west and it looks to be mostly a wind/hail threat.

[@kevinjoyce285]

Very conditional tornado threat. I think two tornadoes mightve touched down? Either way, thankfully discrete cells didn't perform as expected

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I saw some video of a brief tornado(es) from the storm in southern NH, but that’s about it. Thinking the weaker lapse rates kept things at bay.

[@kevinjoyce285]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, it certainly did. None of the cells really caught my eye except that Southern NH one

[@MattLovesLSD]

I’m in Lowell Mass, I’m pretty scared of tornados lol what do you the odds are we actually get hit?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Very low chance of actually getting hit but you still need to be prepared.

[@MattLovesLSD]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you for the video Convective

[@nazcarcup]

Trey here!

[@jasmine31507]

Interesting

[@dharrison365]

I live in keene NH right smack dab in the middle

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Be safe

[@hotdog9423]

Of course Nascar is in town

[@lovesosa4751]

What about Canada?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I focus on US severe weather

[@lovesosa4751]

@@ConvectiveChroniclesDefinitely was cool to watch, otherwise unique weather factors make for interesting personal analysis

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@lovesosa4751 That definitely was an interesting setup to watch unfold

[@DJ-iu5bb]

Not looking good for the 603 🍁🥞🦞 😭