Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan

[@CyanTeamProductions]

Can they release that Boardgame?

[@kevinleecaster2698]

Can you get a security clearance?

[@G-Man-half-life]

@@kevinleecaster2698yes I can get a security clearance it can’t be that hard to pull off.

[@olderchin1558]

The main weakness of these games is that all the participants are Americans. They are all emotional invested in USA. What is lacking is. China decisions are based on Chinese emotions. Japan, Guam and Hawaii, and even Philippines are battlefields so they are where tactical nukes will be used in. The war is between China and the USA, if either of their mainland are bombed general nuke strike will always ensues. China is becoming more and more likely to go full nuclear. Their development of hypersonic and missile defense will make this decision more likely.

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

Sound too weak stop worrying about escalation but about winning you have more nukes less likely to attack you

[@kylecollins7079]

Man I really feel like I could have followed this career path. What a great job you just get paid to think.

[@jimgolab536]

Remember that you are in competition for the good spots with a lot of other smart people, so you need to be able to stand out on merit.

[@ryang.5094]

Same

[@blessedsnake8246]

​@@jimgolab536 ye it sounds hard tbh😅

[@ryang.5094]

I ALMOST had this job 20 years ago. Should’ve followed that path. This is my dream job.

[@Charles-po7hj]

I like the idea of " Participatory Expertise! "

[@blessedsnake8246]

I feel like considering China in isolation really misses an important factor, which is Russia. - Euopean situation would change immediately after slightest TW escalation and we should know how

[@StewartChaimson]

Scary and fascinating but what about what happens to commercial shipping and trade? Ukraine continued to allow Russia gas to transit its territory for years after the attack. What will the decoupling with China look like? How might that escalate and can it be managed and negotiated to avoid (or prepare) for conflict?

[@sengkim8026]

We need to defend Taiwan to keep our edge on semiconductor manufacturing capability.

[@TuanTran-h5f]

Ta wan is not defendable anymore. I don't know how old you are but things have changed.

[@itsme-nt6yu]

Wasn't It a direct conflict in the Korean War? This time around, all US naval ships within the first island chain will be within the Chinese missile firing range unfortunately.

[@carsonw8223]

China didn't have nukes until 1964. This is about nukes.

[@itsme-nt6yu]

@carsonw8223 Exactly. 🇨🇳 didn't lose the war in Korea when it faced 🇺🇸nuclear war threat and it didn't have A bomb. How will 🇨🇳 lose a war when it has nuclear weapons?

[@custossecretus5737]

I think its more about preventing the Chinese gaining access to the semi conductor processing facilities in Taiwan.

[@jimgolab536]

Did the US ever nuke Three Gorges Dam?

[@someyoutuber99]

It’s hard to leave a thoughtful comment. I know a lot of money went into this, paying all those wages wouldn’t have been cheap. But what are your principal goals? I’m having a hard time what you’re trying to achieve with this report. Ultimately that’s how China will read this sort of thing regardless of what you say.

[@jimgolab536]

As they mentioned, It forces commanders to face hard questions and make uncertain decisions, and then deal with a variety of possible responses.

[@slowfoot3785]

I wonder about the results 'if' AI ran this game 15 times instead of humans.

[@jimgolab536]

It would nuke Mars.

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐️

[@Unknown-r2p2o]

Worry too much about escalation not winning less escalation to have huge military these are whips

[@tommydip1]

OK about Taiwan. We should be more than the fact I want is democracy and we want defend democracy to try to defend democracy. Probably about the war games I know it's against international but if any of these war game you had Taiwan or the US attack food supplies, water infrastructure. around Beijing, who has a cost and do you think Trump really care about it? It's a natural war the other example with the satellites in space war I really hope our space force has blackout satellites during the safety mode in the case of that nation goes off in space satellites, hiding space maybe in a high away from everything else to to be repositioned later or or opposing as another side right. That we can utilize for at least a minimum contact with forces on the ground. If not another GPS set up could be done after a space attack that's all folks

[@itsme-nt6yu]

This wargame is insane, especially by assuming China initiating nuclear attack. After WWII, US and China fought two wars, even when China was extremely poor and backward. In Korea war, they fought to a stalemate. In Vietnam war, US lost while China suffered much less casualties. What made Americans think that China would lose a battle near China's coastline in a conventional war?

[@twohorse123]

wishful thinking?

[@Lordnumptynous]

Get your facts straight. The Chinese were not fully involved in Vietnam there were very few Chinese troops fighting alongside the NVA China was hiding behind its proxies

[@Jac9090]

This is different. It’s gonna be a direct conflict. US naval support will be crucial

[@DT-im1dp]

@@Jac9090there would be no naval support near Chinese coastline. Those land base missiles make sure that doesn’t happen. Geography is on important

[@chiseldrock]

Humans might lose but the earth would win...

[@royjao1738]

The game consist of variables that were obsolete in today standards, there differencw between the Ukraine war and liberation of Taiwan, Russia aim is denazification, PLA aim is to recover sovereign territory, hence the war doctrine between the two are different. Amphibious assault? What is this? Korean war? China's PHL-16 artillery rocket are massive enough to cover the entire island, the first hour of battle will take out radara including the American Pave Paw in Taiwan, without radar, the island defense are blind, anything happens after are up to the imagination, the recent PLA exercise also exposed American weakness, PLA can surround the island in 16 hours, while American defensive unit from the Philippines or Okinawa won't arrive after three days. Should tactical nuclear weapons will be employs, we don't think the US will resort to it, all China will need is hit Japan and that will give the American a pause, the US will possibly lose both South Korea and Japan should they decide to intervene.

[@kevinleecaster2698]

If you want to discuss ducking Armageddon than discuss ducking global warming!

[@dezignateddriva]

we need to duck all of the armageddons. dont criticise those thinking on it, criticise those prank videos and clout videos, and anyone who thinks everything is going to be 'fine'

[@johnwhoo6194]

This is not a game to play with. Once started, the whole world potentially will be doomed. There is not going to be a pause button!

[@stacyhackney6100]

Part 1 of 2 The strategists are discussing China but most of my comments reference Putin and the Russian Mafia because they and the Soviet Union are the belligerents who've covertly attacked me for 54+ years. I have the most experience with them. But I do have opinions about China, which I can't prove, but which may interest some readers. (My phone is hacked and while I was typing hackers rang to read what I was saying. I've tried to better protect my phone but I'm not yet tech savvy enough to do so.) Opinion re China - I believe but can't prove Mr. Jinping, the PRC, and the Chinese mafia are owned by Putin, and are being groomed and mentored by Putin to attack us. Were it not for Putin and his Mafia, the PRC would be our competitor, not our enemy. I believe Putin is in the process of grooming/acquiring the PRCs military for his use. The Soviet Union began wooing/acquiring the PRC from at least the 1970s, when they made the PRC a beneficiary of I think it was the Jackson Vanik Act, in which the Soviet Union blackmailed some of our leaders into agreeing to normalized trade relations between America and the Soviet Union. I think the Soviet Union brought China, and some other countries in on that deal. The Soviet Union has always been the pointman in covertly attacking America, but they cut China & other govts in because those countries provide Russia essential backup. As you see w/the Russia-Ukraine War, China isn't a belligerent but is providing essential supplies and services to Putin and his Mafia. Without that support, Putin couldn't continue the war. That support is partially because the Soviet Union helped China become a trade partner with America when China was trying to grow last century. By the time of Jackson-Vanik (1970s) the Soviet Union had assassinated or otherwise removed 2 to 3 American Presidents, covertly assassinated multiple beloved public figures, seuzed control of our media, and was well along in destroying American families. (I speak from direct, personal experience with regards to family destruction.) As you know the Soviet Union used Jackson-Vanik to seed over half a million possible ops, spies and slaves here and is how Putin conned over 70 million innocent Americans to vote for his preferred candidate in 11/2024. I can't say this loudly enough: we're in trouble. I explain why I believe that in my book Genocide Against Americans, my website of the same name, and my below comments. If you look at Mr. Jinping and Putin in photo ops on video, I've noticed Mr. Jinping's impulse is to physically hold Putin's hand. I've noticed a version of this emotionally clinging behavior on Mr Trumps side when he physically interacts w/Putin. Putin has mastered psychological warfare. He is cruel, a sadist, and evil. In any relationship he is the dominant. It is my opinion that he gets in on the ground floor of slave potentials he intends to place in leadership positions, and he grooms them. I suspect, but cannot prove, he's had a hand in seating &/or maintaining in power Trump, Jinping, Modi, the Supreme Leader (Iran), Netanyahu, Sinwar, Erdogan, and many more "leaders." He expects to own the world on 1/20/2025. Americans have a very serious life & death problem: Putin and the Russian Mafia. I'm a prepper. Putin built that construct and later attached it to Trump. I'm not owned by anyone but I used to watch many prepper videos. About 10 years ago when I watched many more KZbin prepper videos I noticed an extremely strong anti-China racism from American preppers. Putin inserted and flamed racism in prepper communities to convince China that Americans are racists and anti-China. He did so because he wants China to help him continue to flood our nation with drug poisons, and also to con the PRCs military into believing that Americans hate China. When Putin calls on the PRC militarily, he wants there to be enough anri-American antipathy the PRC won't hesitate. In NYTs articles I've read the last two years I noticed Putin and the Russian Mafia covertly baiting and taunting the PRC, using American proxies. This was right before the Biden Adm was set to work to improve China-U.S. relations, and I noticed the disrespectful tone because it was the exact opposite of what President Biden wanted. Putin and his Mafia sabotaged those initial talks. I commented in the NYTs about the discourteous tone, which I knew wasn't from the Biden Adm, but was from Putin and his Mafia. I seem to have a sensitivity to them, an ability to recognize them when they camoflage themselves behind proxies. It's probably because they attacked me for over half a century without ever identifying themselves, so I had to recognize them by their behavior. I compare it to a native speaker versus a second-language speaker. I had to learn their essential self so now I see them, whether they identify themselves or not. I think I recognize sleeper ops who haven't been outed. Something about their behavior. I won't mention names but I feel a slight twinge of unease. They betray themselves but I can't explain why I think they're compromised. It may be because they do something not in our nation's best interests, but they have a believable explanation ready. As a prepper a decade ago I witnessed the deep, inexplicable anti-China racism in the prepper community. Putin and before him the Soviet Union build & deploy racism to get people to do violence. In the Israel-Hamas War, which I believe Putin ordered & is running, he took years building anti-Palestinian hatred in individuals in the Israeli govt. With the unrelenting bombing in Gaza, Putin is building hatred against Israelis he'll later use to covertly attack Israelis. Despite what some Israelis think, the evildoers are Putin and his Mafia, not Palestinian civilians. Putin builds hatred & then triggers the hater 2 attack individuals or groups he wants attacked. He and before him the Soviet Union exploited the KKK similarly in America. (cont part 2)

[@someyoutuber99]

Did you remember to put on the foil hat on before you typed that?

[@stacyhackney6100]

@someyoutuber99 I wish I was wrong. Tragically for us and millions of other innocent people worldwide I'm right. I'm sorry I couldn't save you and the others of us who will die.

[@carsonw8223]

Why do you think the kremlin has specifically targeted you for 54 years?

[@gregstadermann]

This video discusses a potential nuclear exchange between the US and China over Taiwan. Why was my comment with the most upvotes at the time removed for proposing a non-lethal way for the US to withdraw without losing face? Surely the horrors of a nuclear exchange where the ballistic missiles carry 100 smaller warheads, each a Hiroshima to itself, is far worse than my proposal? If Taiwan’s independence holds no strategic value - ie we have reshored chip manufacturing via the CHIPS act so China has no chance of an asymmetric advantage and the Taiwanese render their fabrication facilities and data useless/evacuate key scientists and citizens before the Chinese attack thus maintaining the US strategic advantage - then we don’t have to fight a war across an entire ocean while the opponent is on their home turf. We won’t lose face in the eyes of European and South Korean allies - we will be seen as pragmatic and realistic. We don’t even have a commitment to defend Taiwan. In fact we have maintained a strategic ambiguity over Taiwan for decades. That was the gist of it - there’s no need to fight a war and risk a nuclear exchange.

[@Nerfgunsandpancakes]

The U.S. cannot build the same chips domestically that are built in Taiwan. Even thebrand new facilities built in the U.S. cannot produce the smallest and most valuable microchips. The most important chips are still only produced in Taiwan.

[@aesopsaintours4491]

Taiwan has value beyond its chips, that’s the bottom line. If a war starts in Taiwan, the fabricators are toast-there is no chance the Chinese are able to capture them intact, and they are being shut out of the industries that can repair them. The only way to protect the fabricators is deterrence. But the island controls the nearest coastal waters China has. It is incredibly difficult for China to project power without controlling any of their own coastal waters, thanks to tight diplomacy between the Americans and Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and others. The US would struggle to project power if Canada and Mexico had been aligned with the USSR for the entire Cold War. If they capture Taiwan, they can get started on the road to becoming a competitive superpower with global reach. They would still be in a difficult position: pacific access is controlled by Philippines and Japan, Indian Ocean access is controlled by India, but they can start working on those problems. But not until they get Taiwan. Just as Ukraine is blocking Russian access to the rest of Europe.

[@PeterPan-hs5tu]

Taiwan is the choke point of trading rout to Japan and the rest of Pacific nations, the tip of first Island chain. Losing that then it’s almost impossible to defend US western coastline. The eastern boarder of Taiwan (yes I meant Taiwan) has a 2000meter fault line. China’s ballistic subs fleet can basically go disappearing once they setup an under water exit. Then all of sudden we the American lose access to the entire Pacific turfs like it’s our community pool. No leader in the right mind would want to lose the position of keep the fishes on both sides of their own boarders. some dumb chip is the last thing that is on the decision maker’s mind atm.

[@gregstadermann]

@ what the are you talking about? Guam, the Philippines, Hawaii, Marshall Islands and others allow the US to project power in the pacific. Your post makes no sense.

[@PeterPan-hs5tu]

@ you are referring to second island chain. Taiwan, Japan, Korea is the first island chain. My family comes from one of those places, getting threats from communist China is like eating breakfast, lunch and dinner. Cyber attacks couple thousand times a day from ccp to any of the vital infrastructure on the daily bases is something that is as real as my mother’s menstrual cycle. The communist Chinese threat is literally up to your face is something American would never understand

[@yehoshuaosei3133]

Simulations aren’t real life

[@RictorScale]

Wow so insightful, its like why didn't they think about that? OH WAIT THEY DID

[@yehoshuaosei3133]

@ nah they never do, that’s why they all shit their pants about china, most of Chinese capabilities aren’t even real, let alone their military hasn’t had any real combat experience other than scrimmaging themselves and mock aircraft carriers that they draw in the sand lol

[@tevynwilliams2725]

what I don't get about the US policy is "why does the United States need to protect Taiwan???" (but still a thumbs up) ...P.s> If somebody uses an tactical nuke, the big nukes are coming out.

[@Nerfgunsandpancakes]

Whoever builds the best artificial intelligence first wins it all. If Taiwan falls the U.S. is much more likely to lose the race to super intelligent artificial intelligence.

[@RictorScale]

​@@Nerfgunsandpancakes yea imagine an AI driven saturation attack, how do you stop it?

[@Jac9090]

There multiple factors. Good and bad.