Data Reveals The REALITY Of Brood War's Balance...

[@oh_gosh]

The winrate evenness speaks to how insanely well balanced the game is, even a quarter-century later. You love to see it.

[@m.z.671]

You mean, how map-makers made it balanced? Pretty sure that on old maps stats would be very different.

[@markmuller7962]

It's insane as it includes all skill levels including chobos

[@oh_gosh]

Sure sure, but if the races were fundamentally unbalanced then even new maps wouldn't be able to fully balance the game

[@markmuller7962]

@@m.z.671 That matters but it's not just that, there are other important factors like the skill required vs game automation that plays a big role as *the less a game is automated the more the individual skill matters to overcome eventual imbalances*

[@じょせふ-v2z]

It wasn't always that way, lol

[@biggsly]

Protoss has 100% winrate in PvP, protoss confirmed OP.

[@KaraokeNig]

Yea but which tribe ?

[@karpai5427]

​@@KaraokeNigShelak

[@JL-ku7wo]

Not OP, PO power overwhelming.

[@spinvn]

lol it looks like Tasteless just did this video just to read out loud the parts suggesting Tesagi and throw it into Arty's face. After that he's like "alright my job is done here I'm out now"

[@jgmweston]

Love these crunchy data videos! Really cool to see everything laid out like this.

[@Zraknul]

The issue of the ASL/KSL one is sample size (aka number of games). I wonder if the 2400 level used here as the top bracket is too low of a rating to capture top players. I believe I have heard mention around 2600+ MMR is approximately where ASL candidates are found. It would be interesting to find that line (who gets to R24, or maybe last rounds of qualifiers), draw a line and repeat. It should at least get us larger samples than the ASL study.

[@alexfriedman2152]

Protoss is the worst race. It's the easier mechanically , but it's the hardest to become good. Zerg and Terran you just need to know how to abuse and instant A rank.

[@tastethejace]

Did they take Artosis's games out of the data calculations? lol

[@petervlcko4858]

🤪🤬

[@markmuller7962]

lol

[@Aiur]

On Tuesday, June 13, in the year 2000, peak balance was achieved.

[@ooker777]

Why?

[@markmuller7962]

Ikr

[@markmuller7962]

@@ooker777 Because that was the last balance update

[@alexfriedman2152]

If you play Terran or Zerg, yeah.

[@bernkbestgirl]

Since the other study showed that 3 player maps were super balanced in ASL/KSL, I'd be interested to see this data with 3 player maps only.

[@spinvn]

The other study about ASL/KSL is flawed. The map balance data in that one has sample sizes in the range of 20-30 games per matchup, which is basically meaningless. It leads to many wrong conclusions and that's also why Artosis was so interested in it because it wrongly proved him right

[@bernkbestgirl]

@@spinvn Ignoring differences between 2p/3p/4p maps is arguably even worse of a flaw. For example, TvP being T-favored at high levels could be biased by the prevalence of 4p maps, because terran is only unfavored in cross-positions (and favored in close positions). Meanwhile TvP could actually be P favored in 2p and 3p maps across all MMR. I'm not saying this is a fact, but it's a possibility this study doesn't rule out.

[@MeteCanKarahasan]

I disagree, the chart says P win rate, not T win rate, and at every level except mid game it was >50%. Meaning Protoss win rate is higher.

[@richard3706]

@@spinvn ASL also has season 5, and other seasons with a lot of island/semi island maps, where terran is significantly affected specifically against protoss. All the ladder data from high mmr matches just shows that terran is the best race on most maps, so artosis won't touch it. Also eloboard which is data from the korean online proleagues mimics the high mmr ladder data, which also has a much higher sample size (in the thousands).

[@anonymousAJ]

I think high level ZvT's main macro opening (12 hatch) is not optimal 12H keeps larva low and larva/mineral timings line up nicely However Hatcheries produce larva, not workers Below 3 larva hatcheries are not idle Delayed drones cost minerals, but don't delay the exponential growth curve (unless the delay in minerals slows hatches or maxes you out on larva) An earlier hatchery advances the exponential growth curve 4 mineral drones sustain 1 hatchery of constant drone production Initially minerals are the constraint but it quickly shifts to larva I've been doing a bunch of math 9 or 10 hatch produce more larva and can eventually out-eco 12H Extractor Trick 10 Overlord 10 Hatch This puts you 40 minerals behind 12 hatch (delayed 11th and 12th worker mining, extractor trick cost) But you make it up by the time your 2nd hatch produces 4 drones This occurs by about 225 seconds in-game (3m45) After that you'll continue to pull ahead of 12 hatch by about 10 minerals per drone produced This build is pretty flexible and can go for a pool shortly after the hatch (like 12H) Larva timings tend to line up nicely There's no delay in larva production 9 Hatch 9 Overlord Extractor Trick The extractor trick loses minerals but is necessary for larva management The build is a whopping 114 minerals behind 12 hatch It will catch up by about 245 (4m05) After that it will pull ahead of 12H by about 17 minerals per drone produced More than a full worker lead The larva production stops for a while (ie you get up to 3 larva and aren't generating a new one) The hatch comes down so quickly it makes up for the larva delay

[@gosuf7d762]

So you are saying 10 or 9 hatch is better than 12 hatch. They have a better growth curve but offset is lower so you need 3 or 4 min to start surpassing economically than 12hatch. How does it handle bunker rush and 4 marine push?

[@anonymousAJ]

​@@gosuf7d762 I just have math But The 10H version should be very similar to 12H, or if anything more flexible My math has a 12H throwing down the hatch at around 1m41 (I assume continuous worker mining instead of chunks so I'm probably a couple seconds early for all my builds) The 10H version starts the 11th drone at 1m42 So an 11 Pool from either should be very similar in timing And the 10H version can go for a 10 pool earlier if under threat, giving back some econ for safety Ideally though you'd 10H and 12+ Pool (similar to how 12H ideally wants a 13+ Pool) Pumping lings vs pumping drones is the same macro (50 mnr/larva) it takes 4 mineral miners to sustain a hatchery so having to make lings won't by itself put you further behind (compared to 12H making the same lings) pulling drones to fight (as long as you have 4 mining) also won't put you further behind (compared to 12H pulling the same drones) These actions don't delay your breakeven time unless you don't produce 4 drones after the 2nd hatch finishes and if you're producing so few drones probably early larva -> early ling is better to stay alive There's also the slight benefit of an earlier natural hatch which therefore has more health and spreads creep earlier (maybe zoning out the bunker) On the other hand 9H is inflexible and will likely struggle a lot more vs early aggression 9H doesn't make the 11th drone until 1m59 if 9H can't squeeze in a few drones after the hatch starts but before the pool then larva pile up and the whole advantage quickly erodes Edited to add: Also it's not that you need 3 or 4 minutes for this to pay off, it's that they don't pay off until 4 minutes into the game So from executing the strategy to being ahead of 12H is only like 2 and a half minutes for 10H you're waiting 75 seconds for the hatch to finish plus 4 larva cycles (another minute ish) for 9H you're waiting 75 seconds for the hatch plus 6 larva cycles (but it starts the process sooner so it's only about +20 seconds to reach the payoff point rather than +30)

[@richard3706]

@@anonymousAJ 10 hatch has worse economy than 12 hatch, there's been threads of this on teamliquid ("just search 10 hatch vs 12 hatch teamliquid" on google). 10 hatch against 8 rax still has the problem where your lings won't be out until after the bunker has started building so zerg still has to pull drones, but with 10 hatch you have less drones compared to 12 hatch with a typical 9 overlord, so it's just flat out weaker vs 8 rax. 10 hatch is also weaker vs a typical 1 rax expand since terran's build isn't altered. The only advantage 10 hatch has over 12 hatch is you get a surge of larva faster relative to 12 hatch, meaning something like a speedling all in is faster/better, that's it. It's why the only real matchup 10 hatch has been used in is ZvP when 2 gate openers were a thing, you have more lings relative to 12 hatch (for a time at least, since the eco boost and additional drones means you'll be able to afford a 3rd hatch even while pumping lings off 2 hatcheries, but that's irrelevant since it takes so long for that 3rd hatch to kick in and your initial lings will have won/lost the game already). 12 hatch has the better eco and even vs a 1 rax expand terran should win most games (let's say terran will win 52% of the time), with a 10 hatch your economy is just flat out weaker, terran doesn't have to build an early bunker (can just pump constant marines in case of a ling flood) and still have their CC around the same time, so zerg is just worse off. The real issue is that zerg NEEDS to 12 hatch vs an eco opener from terran in order to have a good mid game, also zerg needs 12 hatch to be strong against a 1 base terran (opening pool first just makes you weaker vs whatever 1 base timing terran is going for since the early pool/lings won't do anything and you want as much eco as you can before their tech kicks in). And so, since zerg needs 12 hatch to be viable vs a standard terran, they're weak af to an 8 rax, but vs an 8 rax you want a pool first (except as a zerg you can't scout an 8 rax in time to alter your build...) Meanwhile if terran opens 8 rax and zerg goes pool first, the game is still 50/50 since terran can just stay home with the marines and build a command center, but if zerg opens hatch first they can outright die of take game ending damage from an 8 rax, so from a game theory/mathematical perspective zerg is just worse in the matchup based on openers.

[@FeersYouTube]

What about 9-hatch before overlord?

[@anonymousAJ]

​@@FeersKZbin That was my recommendation for 9H and the only 9H build that seems capable of better eco than 12H 9H is in theory monstrously powerful (ahead of 12H by over a full drone by ~4 minutes from game start) but also very inflexible early and takes a little longer than 10H to pay off Also if you don't want to invest tons of minerals so you skip the extractor trick (or 2nd 9OV) after 9H 9OV then the larva pile up and 10H (Extractor Trick -> 10OV -> 10H) is just better in every way If you mean "what about 9H before OV" in the context of Terran rushes (the topic gosu mentioned), it's likely worse than 12H (alhtough there are some bright spots like the earliest possible hatch gives you the best chance of the creep zoning out bunkers)

[@BLooDCoMPleX]

There is also a chart made exclusively for ASL/KSL stats.

[@markmuller7962]

He already made a video about it

[@markmuller7962]

Being about all ladder games including chobos the game balance numbers are unfathomably stupidly good. And yea, I'm Terran and I know at my level zerg has to perform attacks very very precisely otherwise they can lose everything while terran loses nothing and all in 2 seconds, zerg doesn't have the luxury of bulky Protoss units

[@Anubis1993KZ]

Artosis is shaking and crying right now

[@CURichard2019]

I think we all knew that T > Z > P this whole time. It was just hard for some people to admit it.

[@weho_brian]

weird that protoss is the most complex race, but also the weakest

[@metascrub285]

​@@weho_brianit isn't and that's why it's the weakest. It's the lowest skill floor and ceiling race. Easier for beginners but harder for top pro's cos of less skill expression. Terran is the most complex race and the most demanding to play at a higher level because of the massive APM requires to play it at a even average level. But because of this it has the highest ceiling of power so when someone like flash plays it looks op.

[@montanac223344]

It'd be interesting to see some commentary and analysis on players who are really good at beating their "soft counters". Obviously the game is very well balanced, but I'd be curious what those players are doing differently than others to overcome that slight advantage

[@markmuller7962]

Make sense

[@marmoran9493]

probably the "counter" race throws up a crucial fight or advantage hard enough to get the game turned on them

[@nervaproject]

Something striking about your data is that PvZ seems to be the only matchup where one side is disadvantaged at ALL levels of play (MMR) in the chart! And the disadvantaged side is the Protoss side. (So lets stop telling Protoss players complaining about PvZ to "learn to play" or whatever.) In other matchups, like say PvT or TvZ, one side is favored at a lower MMR, and the other side is favored at a higher MMR.

[@petervlcko4858]

Zerg is difficult race. Many units do not shoot and need to be in close proximity. But overall I think it is close enough to say that bw is balanced. I was protos player but we did just lan. After some years of watching tube matches I start to be fascinated by them because basically even buildings go out of hatchery and has not particularly high hp on comparison with other races. This game is still captivating and relevant to this days.

[@aggrael8285]

RIP Artosis. May you rest in peace knowing that your race is indeed the OP race. Timebonez does it again!

[@JL-ku7wo]

Nice 3rd Strike music in the background!

[@Lerker2000]

Tasteless! I have that same shirt! I need to buy another one though because it's starting to fade :(

[@val57864]

Tesagi is very much real, despite with zealot-minded apologists say. And Protoss is visibly underpowered. And this is beautifully seen in bonjwa and big title distribution.

[@dj_koen1265]

nah p isnt really underpowered especially for lower level players, but even at the highest level p players can still win vs T if they are slightly better, its only 2% thats insignificant, the zvt and pvz stats show a much clearer sign of a really hard matchup

[@val57864]

@dj_koen1265 absolutely true. But it still means tesagi is real. P suffers vz, zerg suffers vt, and terran holds its own vp while having the easiest mirror by far with least luck involved = imbalance, clear as day.

[@rocketrockinit]

Great info friend.

[@MeliorIlle]

It shows how stupid balance patches are. Let players figure out solutions.

[@Cody27]

Looks like polypoid still wins with most played, theres 165 175 and 132.

[@steampunkwhale2280]

This is great I absolutely love it great job man!

[@Askhat08]

TvP on 4-player map with close spawns is so Terran favoured, it's not even funny.

[@fatemakeus]

Out of this 8 millions games, how many games are from Artosis?

[@richard3706]

artosis plays around 4000-5000 games a year, and this includes all ladder data from 2018-2023, so I'd say 25,000 at the lowest, 35,000 at the highest.

[@u1337ochka]

Love Tasteless, dives into a data analysis, doesn't know what a histogram is

[@OlovMetal]

Artosis uses the OP race, got it. We know. Tastless, you are the victim. Protoss.

[@infeza3255]

RIP RT

[@DrZergling]

Dont find excuses..

[@themihok946]

Hahaha Whinetosis will come and say bluntly and arrogantly that those statiscs are wrong :D I bet you on that!

[@friskydrinklunkybank1108]

Pretty sure Artosis is just exaggerating it for the content. He even had that one short where he "breaks character" and says that terran is OP :P

[@abstractdaddy1384]

He's definitely not. PvT is indeed a very easy matchup and the Terran has to be a much better player to have an even chance of winning against them.

[@MeteCanKarahasan]

Yep, Arty is right this time.

[@weho_brian]

TvZ does not surprise me at all, all you do is make tanks and valks. how are you supposed to counter that. The fact that Zerg has dark swarm shows you how unbalanced the units are

[@nervaproject]

"how are you supposed to counter that" Maybe learn how to play?

[@Askhat08]

Tanks and valks? 😂 Problem is with marine-medic-3tank-1vessel timing push. There's no way to stop it for lair zerg.

[@captain_malaria]

Tanks and valks are not the issue here, lol.

[@drewwalbeck6006]

Isn't looking at the meta like this on a meta level going to change the meta itself? Call it meta-ception

[@Stokkeland23]

The game is balanced for most people, but not at the highest pro level. Terran is OP and have been for as long as i can remember. To truly have a balanced game it must be balanced at the highest level. Which Brood War is not.

[@RMJ1984]

The way to balance an RTS. Is that all 3 races should have 50% winrate at early game, midgame and lategame. So if you remove all units, now we only play with early game units, 50% winrate, now we remove all early game units and late game, 50% winrate for midgame etc etc. Starcraft 2 suffers from this as well. Oh you just have to get to late game or you can't let race X Y Z reach lategame. That is a very stupid design philisopy

[@tuubi2783]

thats impossible to do unless theres only either one map or one race

[@itranscendencei7964]

Eat your heart out Artosis. XD

[@Mayhamsdead]

See kids: Not all races are the same! You could even say there's a superior race out there, but people are too afraid to admit it :^)

[@markmuller7962]

Are you being cowardly irl racist or something?

[@lorenzozinna4700]

Based

[@zhadoomzx]

histogram? Is that a word? 😂 Dude hasn't worked with bar charts a lot it seems...

[@ethansaltmere]

Just proves how completely wrong Artosis is. How many people watch his stream and blindly think Terran is by far the hardest race and Protoss for beginners. How many times do you need to see him get recked as zerg and Protoss to realise the game is hard for all races.

[@SPyoutube42069]

uh, did you not watch the video? low APM protoss dominates low APM terran, in this video

[@CallMeCJorDandy]

This the Best Thesis i ever read than my College Thesis

[@attractivegd9531]

This data conclusion was wrong.