David Hunter On Melt Up In Stocks, Global Bust, And Gold $20,000 Call

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian / davehcontrarian , Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy.
Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust.
He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half.
0:00 Intro
0:40 Becoming a contrarian
2:40 Macro view
5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators
8:40 What is market forecasting?
11:22 Another melt up in the market
16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market
18:24 Economic and market cycles
20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024
23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop
29:00 Deflation
34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade
41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
44:00 Treasuries
47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’
49:20 Challenge to the thesis
52:30 Parting thoughts
#gold #stockmarket #economy

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this episode featuring David Hunter. Please let me know what you think in the comments below. And keep your guest suggestions coming. We have some great folks lined up this summer. Thanks as always. 💙Julia

[@issenvan1050]

Jim Iuorio as a guest…

[@dave8212]

Hi Julia, thanks for having David on ! 👍💛

[@annconnolly5298]

Thank you for hosting David Hunter. We have been following him for a while. We so enjoy his process and insights.

[@chrisrock4428]

He’s clueless

[@thehungergames8918]

David Hunter is our man 🤓😃✊

[@stivy58]

Awesome. Thank you for the timeline / outline

[@ryantinney]

You are getting close to the 10,000 subscriber mark! Congratulations on the hard work and excellent content.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

So close! Ryan, I think you'll enjoy Thursday's episode. Can't wait to share who the guest is. We actually have two on that episode :)

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

@ryantinney2843 thought you might enjoy the Nassim Taleb episode :) kzbin.info/www/bejne/iGbdmaGPpdibitU

[@joeysocks5718]

Great guest and interview Julia. I’m betting on gold too, there’s a reason central banks bought record amounts 👍🏼👍🏼

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I always appreciate your comments, Joey! Thank you.

[@joyalpatel1031]

David the watch and learn guy. I can make that call too. Market will crash 37% percent in between 3q of 2023. If this don’t come true I’ll push that call to next qt and if not then next qt. This is his calls look like. I have one more call as well after the crash market will rise 166% in coming years.

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Great guest Julia...thank you.

[@yngvesognen1092]

U too great Jools!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much!

[@J3envenuto]

You should have way more subs, this is such a good show! Thanks for the interviews.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much. Been trying to hit 10K. 🙏

[@williamblais1004]

Julia great format like your show very much. Thank you

[@nunoalexandre6408]

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@Ramzi_9]

Amazing info 👌

[@satvindergata-aura3075]

DH is 🔥

[@randalnelson8862]

I like how she interviews a lot better then others she lets the person talk and explain in detail as others just interrupt and try to dominate the conversation and get off topic

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

It's one of my rules! Speak less, listen more. I try to only talk 10% of the time to maximize the opportunity for my guests to fully articulate their ideas. Thank you so much for recognizing that. 💙

[@Biztalkcontrolcenter]

Lot of wisdom and juice info

[@mth469]

Juice 🧃, you say.. 🤔

[@williewest5574]

David rules

[@Blackridge.]

Kudos to you julia 👏

[@DonRua]

It is refreshing to see a host/hostess doesn’t try to come across he/she KNOWS IT ALL. Julia has a very SOOTHING personality. And she was a Miss NY, beauty and personality - PERFECT. Anyhow, 36:05 she was quite surprised gold may gain 10x to 20,000. 1970-1981 Gold went from $35 to $850, some 27x gain. It is all relative. When a house is over a million, a Tesla is over $100,000, it is only right for gold to be 10,000-30,000/Oz

[@elmahfoudafgane766]

A subscriber from Montréal canada love your podcasts

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much 💙

[@elmahfoudafgane766]

Julia the Rock love your podcasts

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you!! 🥰

[@ThetaBurnVictim]

In spring of last year everyone was literally call David crazy when he said we’d have a melt up to ATH and higher in the next 6mo. His timing was off by a few months but here we are

[@miguelon1995]

#Gold & #Silver to the 🌕baby strap on 🚀

[@daveforgot127]

If gold peaks out at $20,000 with super high inflation, what will the inflation rate be? Seems like a logical question nobody remembers to ask.

[@Simba-sj3nm]

David has said many times in other interviews it will be double digits possibly 20 % +

[@mth469]

If gold is $20K, a loaf 🍞 of bread will cost $200.

[@seunjoong]

Price takes a huge back seat to TIMING. The path to price matters. If you don't have both to some degree, it's not even worth listening to.

[@issenvan1050]

Should silver behave like gold or copper during a recession/depression?

[@andrewcollier2222]

Fascinating perspectives. Even as a long term believer in gold, good lord, as a father, I hope he’s wrong! 😮 Depression in the 2030s, yikes! Unfortunately, it seems to fit with 4th turning theories also.

[@mickygarcia4251]

Sounds like we're coming up on a bit of a rockety ride. I'd always assumed it was going to be this way, but not due to any forecasting skills that I possess. I'm following Murphy's Law.

[@yngvesognen1092]

Hyperinflation happened in Weimar Gemany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc. Nothing like that ever happened in the USA. Apart from that I agree very much with what DH is saying. Others are too myopic, don't see the macro picture, don't understand the history.

[@DaveHcontrarian]

The Fed will keep things reasonably under control... say 20-25% annual inflation. These other countries experienced much higher numbers than that. I believe Argentina experienced 100% yoy inflation recently.

[@yngvesognen1092]

@@DaveHcontrarian, Argentina is at ca 100% now. It's the "eternal" basket case. Weimar was about WWI reparations, which evaporated in hyperinflated Deutsche Marks. I think your depression scenario is correct. Jim Rickards has talked about the subpar growth of the last decade and a half, and Emil Kalinovski - with Jeff Snider - has called it the Silent Depression. I can only see it getting worse because the cleansing out has to happen, and I see nothing that can pull us out easily and quickly, no leadership in the world either. Au contraire to the Twits I'm a HUUGE fan of your scenarios. Thank you for responding, sorry for my long answer.

[@Floridawoodsbanshee]

Should the world completely exit the US debt market and we know the real economy is not growing. It would be safe to conclude that the federal reserve would be the only buyer. After all the dollar is only a note and belongs to the federal reserve and so it does makes sense for the federal reserve to be the Supreme bag holder!

[@rmihai0]

Gold has been artificially suppressed since the infamous FED meeting of Apr 2014. And I believe will continue to be so. I can see gold going to $7,500 in 5 years time. Anything above that will be a surprise for me.

[@silverbullag4759]

What price do you expect a loaf of bread to be at 7,500 Gold

[@issenvan1050]

How will there be a melt-up while the money supply is shrinking & TGA is going to absorb liquidity from the market?

[@mth469]

US dollars from overseas will come back in like a tsunami 🌊

[@issenvan1050]

@@mth469 How much, from where, when, & why?

[@anthony790]

S&P 6,000 by year end!? That’s pretty hard to believe

[@issenvan1050]

Why would DXY go to 80?

[@dazedhavoc]

The market is crazy.

[@robertmccoy9323]

I don't like the word inevitable even in the short term. And what the world looks like is anybody's guess in two years. The next 6 months maybe more full of pitfalls and surprises than anyone currently predicts. So David Hunter's forecast is only a general guideline without many unknowns. I do agree there will be opportunities so keeping an open mind is very important, and that we are in for a wild ride is probably though not necessarily inevitable. take care rwmccoy

[@fairx]

so these kind of guys are still around?

[@docall18]

I'll eat my hat is we see 6-7000 S&P in the next few months.

[@mth469]

🤠

[@mth469]

One question i have not seen anyone ask him is: *How does rhe advent of CBDC impact his entire prediction?*

[@daveforgot127]

David adjusts his forecasts all the time

[@markblankenship6233]

That’s legitimate, because information charges every day.

[@markblankenship6233]

That’s legitimate, because information charges every day.

[@markblankenship6233]

That’s legitimate, because information charges every day.

[@markblankenship6233]

That’s legitimate, because information charges every day.

[@markblankenship6233]

That’s legitimate, because information charges every day.

[@okgroomer1966]

I'm a gold bug but 20k is absolutely absurd. I'm willing to bet a lot this man sells gold or a gold ETF

[@mth469]

No he does not sell gold. He is retired and does not provide paid investment advice. He does however have a newsletter that he offers for $1K. But that's it. His predictions are wild.

[@okgroomer1966]

@@mth469I'll take your word this is true. Now he's just insane I guess if he's not profiting from gold sales.

[@rubentrevino5433]

Tough times ahead wish more of us peasants were aware of sound money. Chance favors the prepared for something wicked this way comes.

[@daveforgot127]

What's his calling on inflation?

[@same.9678]

This guy is hallucinating 😂😂

[@DaveHcontrarian]

It's a cycle call. I can see how you could think that.

[@mth469]

Lol

[@naveensharma1687]

I am speechless

[@mth469]

😮

[@jaynawilliams8923]

His Nutsness the Mad Gold Hatter...

[@DaveHcontrarian]

You don't have to follow. No one is forcing you.

[@issenvan1050]

Copper vs. lithium?

[@guilhemthomas2361]

I mean if the recession hits, silver is at 2/3 an industrial metal

[@judyt.3228]

Gold isn't going to help if you can't exchange it for food ????

[@mth469]

A 1oz coin of gold for a loaf 🍞 of bread. Take it or leave it.

[@thehungergames8918]

Julia ❤

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

😊

[@MrBodha]

With all due respect to everyone, Just wandering that whatever he smokes please give us some.😂😂

[@jamesheadings8956]

The idea that the monetary system breaks down has to be tempered with the location of natural resources and human capital. Jubilee will happen and the centers of power will maintain control. People will agree to the arbitrary terms of money because the alternative is worldwide destitution.

[@jamesheadings8956]

Russia and China are losing the human capital game. Russian resources gave the BRICS an edge that could have been useful. Government policies can be extremely destructive but one child and special military operations are far more destructive than the refusal to pursue energy return on investment that the West is guilty of.

[@bombersnumber1]

Didn't he predict a meltup in 2022, which obviously didn't happen?

[@petervella]

He admits to his timing being incorrect at times

[@issenvan1050]

Why industrially driven?..

[@mth469]

All that production in China and elsewhere will be moved here.

[@mmercato7174]

Sp 6850

[@TheMegaberg]

$20000 gold means dollar and other currencies go down the tubes.

[@mth469]

👇

[@issenvan1050]

Natgas?

[@issenvan1050]

Hyperinflation in US in the early 80s, he said?..

[@thehungergames8918]

But Gold 🏅 is pretty weak 🙄

[@danielbraun6621]

$20,000 for gold? When a washer for a faucet will cost you $20. A latte for $50? That will be a world of dog eat dog. Not looking forward to a world like that.

[@richardaurre4840]

A "Crack - UP Boom" history repeats!

[@dod5293]

interview Rick Rule

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I had Rick on last year. Would love to get him back on the show! kzbin.info/www/bejne/pomoo6iuZpV-pbM

[@etsa2008]

He has been saying melt up in us equity SP500 to 6,000. and rally in metals( silver to rally to 50 and gold to 2500). He said it will happen by the end of 2021, then he moved it to the end of 2022, then he moved it to the end of 2023. If you would have followed his advice from 2021 you would have lost a lot of money. It is sad that people enable spread of lies and falsehood.

[@mebigota946]

Soon as market gets everybody long and wrong the crash will occur, capitulation fuel for waterfall decline.

[@hhn0505]

Sorry, but I had to stop watching when David kept saying the Fed is targeting the stock market. They are not. The clearest indication of this is their new FC index which is built in the framework of FRB/U.S. (their large scale econometric model). The estimate of the equity market’s rally on FC is very little tailwind. They don’t care about the equity market as much as these market participants think.

[@byronrios4005]

What you are witnessing is a expert on common sense & critical thinking …wow

[@issenvan1050]

First

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Love that you're always Number 1!

[@issenvan1050]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShowIn fact, my name means something along those lines!

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

Gold to $20000 ??? Sometime when you smoke too much pot, you would talk bullshit !

[@jessicapae9642]

Hw has been saying this for absolutely forever. Has not been correct yet...

[@priscillawaters]

P r o m o s m ❣️

[@charlesyoung1464]

Solution : Global Debt Forgiveness🤔!?

[@mth469]

Global debt default is more like it. Savers and pensioners will be screwed.

[@NicoTheChocolateLab]

SP500 (ES) to 7,000 and NDX100 (NQ) to 21,000-25,000 by mid-September 2023? No way, Jose. A crash and potential depression by the end of this decade due to the US Gov't not being able to service the National Debt and Unfunded Liabilities (combined as of this post totaling $225 Trillion) is a mathematical certainty.

[@calvincheng865]

The old man like story teller his timing already all wrong sure the market either gonna up or down he is clown 🤡

[@ronfesta771]

Me thinketh the debtor will always be., slave to the........lender!@!?😝😜🤪😎

[@mth469]

The br0tha has been wrong before, but mostly on timing and the extent of the rise / fall. His predictions however have broadly been accurate.

[@John-wf5if]

Why do people still believe these hyperbolic gold calls??? These clowns prey on your 'hope'. Gold isn't going anywhere. Same price as 2011.

[@DDoubleU8001]

I agree with your first two sentences. HOWEVER... You're conveniently cherry-picking your timeframe to pick the worst 10 years for gold. How about from year 2000 until now?? -- Gold blew away equities. Also have a look at the 30-year and 50-year charts. In any case, gold is financial insurance more than anything. The fact that it has risen so much in the past few decades is just a bonus.

[@John-wf5if]

@@DDoubleU8001 Correct, I am intentionally cherry-picking, but I still feel that flat performance over ~12 years is very relevant given the financial skullduggery that has unfolded since 2011. Gold should have performed better under this environment. It looks like it is floundering.

[@Floridawoodsbanshee]

@@John-wf5if it's not floundering. It is called digesting. Gold had a nice leg up in the 2000's. That same time frame the DOW was digesting. Then it changed with the 20 teens. Gold is digesting and DOW leg higher.

[@Floridawoodsbanshee]

@@John-wf5if I have sell signals for a broader market sell off, next one year cycle. We shall see.

[@DDoubleU8001]

​​​​​@@John-wf5ifFair enough. Yes, the skullduggery has been immense. But at the same time (and for whatever reason) 2011 until now has been quite benign as far as financial and economic turmoil (aside from pandemic related effects which were relatively short-lived). I look at gold as financial catastrophe insurance, not as an "investment". I thought there would have been a systemic economic disaster by now but it hasn't happened yet and that's why I believe gold hasn't done much yet. But if and when it does happen, gold could be very good to hold, to put it mildly. It's like car or home insurance. Most of the time it does nothing and you almost wish you never wasted money on it. But then when it pays off to have it, it REALLY pays off. In the meantime, it often trends up in value which I see as a bonus. Imagine a car insurance policy that never expires and may actually increase in value while you hold it. Anyway, good discussion.

[@jackblack5962]

Can I please have what he smokes

[@mth469]

😂

[@bingowings65]

lol no its not - get a grip.

[@fibervector6734]

Please have PETER SCHIFF on your Show, enjoy his prophecy and you will get more Views. 💞💋

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I'll ask him!

[@mktwatcher]

Your melt up has already happened. It will probably float a little higher then Wylie Coyote will realize the ground is missing!

[@roydesell223]

Julia, please delete my comment below, thank you

[@chrisrock4428]

Holy misinformation!!

[@jimclercx4208]

sounds similar to milkshake theory

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

🥤💵