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@rocko77112 ай бұрын
🇺🇦
@MrPloopi2 ай бұрын
after more than two years of Russia having emptying their stock of armoured vehicles, but somehow still having as much of them on the battlefield will you admit that your estimations may not be very accurate? Or in other words: if you can think you can count their stocks using commercial sat data, don't you think the Russians are aware of that for decades and might have thought of counter measures to prevent their enemies to estimate so easily their capabilities?
@StevenHaze2 ай бұрын
@@MrPloopi Well you can always start a channel and do a better job!
@StevenHaze2 ай бұрын
It would help me is you moved the Excel sheet to one side and inserted a picture next to the sheet. I say this because I often end up pausing the video to find a photo reference as I am not familiar with all the AFV types. Thank you in advance, love your work and your efforts!
@SirWolf1232 ай бұрын
@@MrPloopi Both Russia and China tried to flex on the US that they could use those same sats to find US Fleet Groups. Russian high coms isn't exactly known for it's intelligence. Also Russia is using old vehicles on the battlefield so his estimations are most likely dead on.
@veritaspk2 ай бұрын
The numbers given in the film are estimates - but one thing is certain - Russia has significantly depleted its stocks of heavy equipment. The USSR has been accumulating these reserves for decades - what chance does Russia have of rebuilding them, being demographically and economically much weaker?
@eduwino1512 ай бұрын
Russia learning the hard way no amount of production can match losing amor to cheap drones, once they run low it's game over
@eduwino1512 ай бұрын
@@disco1974ever when the most newest Russian tank goes from T72 to T62s it means you are running low stop with the cope, no amount of production can sustain loosing expensive amor to cheap drones produced in the thousands
@Pikkabuu2 ай бұрын
@@disco1974ever And you are making an assumption too that Russia is jumping through massive hoops to hide numbers. This argument is bad especially if a tank is immobile due to damage in storage meaning that moving it is a fear itself! Plus why would Russia hide those decent vehicles and force themselves to fix the bad ones!
@andytroo2 ай бұрын
@@disco1974ever why would Russia want to argue "we are weak" - that implies that a good weapons supply to Ukraine would rapidly end the war which is dragging on? It also implies that Russia is also deliberately spending effort to drag the war out ..
@veritaspk2 ай бұрын
@@disco1974ever Are the Russians sending their soldiers on missions on motorbikes and on foot to hide how much equipment they still have left? The shortage of heavy equipment on the front significantly increases Russian human losses. Apart from the moral aspect of such a strategy, it will make the recruitment of new soldiers even more difficult. In short, the fact that Russia has any free, fully functional heavy equipment is nonsense.
@ponz-2 ай бұрын
I like when you show the satellite pictures. I don’t find it boring at all
@klaasnerincx32122 ай бұрын
Is that sarcasme? Because i really dont find it boring
@ponz-2 ай бұрын
@@klaasnerincx3212 not in the least. I really do like it. Saying the numbers is one thing but when you see the visuals it really shows a you
@thewick-j18372 ай бұрын
I second being a satellite picture fan, I want to know more.
@herptek25 күн бұрын
@@ponz-There is nothing better in life than satellite pictures of depleted storages of countless of armoured vehicles.
@ISawABear2 ай бұрын
Idea for the before and after shots, try doing a wipe fade instead of a cross fade. might be easier to track as it wipes from one image to another instead of having to take it all in at once.
@daniel_dumile2 ай бұрын
Smart
@MostlyPennyCat2 ай бұрын
.... Can it be a star wipe, please? 🥺
@jhonbus2 ай бұрын
Oh hi George Lucas
@GITS992 ай бұрын
Thats not entirely true, the motion in the wipe naturally attracts more attention from your eyes. Making it more difficult to to spot the change due to divided attention. Just a fade would work best.
@L3_FR2 ай бұрын
@@GITS99 vertical paneled strip transition would great if it existed Major kusanagi!
@Obeserundown2 ай бұрын
Pretty sure your channel has significant overlap with Perun’s… we’d sit through 2 hour PowerPoint on satellite imagery of Russian military bases no problem.
@Erik_Ice_Fang2 ай бұрын
Perun does actually get some of his info collaborating with Covert Cabal and cites it in video when he does
@matt.willoughby2 ай бұрын
Don't you worry about being trapped in an echo chamber?
@equarg2 ай бұрын
Maybe you and Perun can do a co-upload with each other discussing the economics of military vehicle maintenance, storage, recycling, cannibalism, updating, and manufacturing of new/replacement parts vs building a brand new machine.
@MayaPosch2 ай бұрын
@@equarg I'm already disappointed that this isn't Sunday's new Perun video.
@alexisjuillard48162 ай бұрын
Yeah i've always sqid the only issue with perun is the lenght of.his videos, some are even -i kd you not- under 1h long!
@niume74682 ай бұрын
Here before 114th russian keyboard division
@thiefsleef67522 ай бұрын
Cope
@andykim45632 ай бұрын
i heard that's one of their finest units, or maybe most intact at this point
@meegz1492 ай бұрын
@niume7468 every accusation is an admission from pro-UA living in BhB. Now if you'll excuse me I need to clean my screen after it's been stained with projection.
@bladfadsfblaadsfsadf9002 ай бұрын
Reporting for duty!
@bingbongdingdong12342 ай бұрын
Hahhaha. Russian cope strong these days
@TSZatoichi2 ай бұрын
It's fine, Russia is replacing all the old vehicles with brand new golfcarts and motorcycles.
@StrangerHappened2 ай бұрын
Just like US marines, genius
@DalerMehndiDeekSheik2 ай бұрын
@@StrangerHappened Cope harder vatnik
@yap59952 ай бұрын
us marines lost mraps humvees bradleys and tanks to sheep hearders wearing sandals😂😂😂 in a real war between the us and Russia, its clear who will prevail
@max-imal85882 ай бұрын
Obv, Russia is just far weaker than the US or even just the european nations without the US.@@yap5995
@yeeyee85202 ай бұрын
@@yap5995you’re forgetting the USSR did the exact same thing
@bc-guy8522 ай бұрын
An incredible amount of work, likely pouring over magnified images! Don't be discouraged by the trolls / haters; you're providing valuable information! Drones of purpose-built designs are changing modern warfare but the russians are still sending trains full of this equipment to Ukraine every day. And what they send is older and in poorer shape than what they sent two years ago. russia might collapse at this pace...
@willietorben5602 ай бұрын
ABSOLUTELY! I did ecological sat img analysis in my thesis, and I LOVE this stuff. Counting tanks reminds me of myself counting trees of the Sahel. 100% nerd-out feast! Don't be bothered by the haters; it is gourmet food pure and simple, and one cannot expect any Kevin and Karen to like this.
@stanleyspadowski2352 ай бұрын
APC? AFV? More like MIA.
@thiefsleef67522 ай бұрын
They ran out of vehicles back in 2022 so now they are pooping it out
@stern-button82 ай бұрын
@@thiefsleef6752Well that'd explain why Russian armoured assaults are a sh*t show.
@nemanja1622 ай бұрын
Ahh yes, the mongs who think Ukraine is winning 😂
@wilhelmheinzerling53412 ай бұрын
KIA
@pablodelsegundo95022 ай бұрын
or DOA.
@PrinceOfDolAlmroth2 ай бұрын
a private, no, a civilian youtube channel giving us this kind of information in a 8 minute format in a life or death struggle with near-peer opponents not seen in this scale since WWII. Truly warfare has changed much in the last 20 years. edit: with a minute long ad added in for good measure. one sponsored by a organic food distributor no less.
@willietorben5602 ай бұрын
Yes. This is nothing other than standard-setting. And it raises the bar pretty high!
@BenHere-qs6wj2 ай бұрын
Covert cabal never fails us great vid!
@thiefsleef67522 ай бұрын
He always fails
@PapaProtein2 ай бұрын
@@thiefsleef6752can’t wait to see you on live leaks after spending 10 min on the frontline 😊
@atomf91432 ай бұрын
@PapaProtein holy shit you came out swingin’ on that guy
@thiefsleef67522 ай бұрын
@@PapaProtein spoken like a true sociopath
@daviddavidson14172 ай бұрын
@@thiefsleef6752 A no-nothing Russian invasion supporter AND a pearl clutcher? lmao
@BodilyFunction2 ай бұрын
Just for some context for numbers. There are only about 80 btr-80s left in storage otherwise it’s mostly btr-70s with a few hundred btr-60s. The 70/60 are pretty terrible in armor gun and troop compartment layout and over all are not that great. BRDM-2s are basically post WWII armored cars. Again same issues as the btr-70/60 but even worse and will get bogged down easier. The t-72a and t-64s are in terrible condition, there’s a reason they’ve been almost completely untouched and refurbishing most of them probably won’t be worth it. They’ll need some upgrades to be even a bit useful. There are no bmp-3 left in storage and very few bmp-2s are left. It mostly consists of bmp-1. The bmp-1s have been getting cannibalized to get the more effective bmp-2s working. Once those are gone they’ll be down to poor condition bmp-1s. The only barely modern tanks they have left in storage being to t-80s and t-72b will be pulled by the end of they year for refurbishment. After that they’ll be down to their worst garbage old ass tanks and t-90m for replacement. Right now they’ve started refurbishing btr-70s since the btr-80s are gone and after that they’ll just have btr-82a new production which they actually make in large numbers however the story isn’t so great for the bmps since they’ve almost used up their bmp-2 storage and so they’ll be down to just bmp-1s and new production bmp-3 which they don’t make a large amount of. There’s almost no bmds left and they only make a handful. The graph may show thousands of vehicles left however most of it is extremely old and poor condition crap and by July next year they’ll probably be getting most of their vehicles from the factory instead of refurbishment which won’t be great for Russia. Those factories are known locations and will eventually bacons the target of attacks should the war go on that long.
@Pikkabuu2 ай бұрын
Bad crew compartment doesn't matter when the infantry rides on top of the vehicles.
@BodilyFunction2 ай бұрын
@@Pikkabuu btrs are thinner than bmps and more susceptible to mud. They can carry less crew and take damage from shrapnel easier. Just because Russia refuses to use armor as armor for some reason doesn’t really detract from the fact that if they did all the sudden want to use it the layout would be much worse.
@WhoopityDoo2 ай бұрын
The bigger issue with relying on factories for new production tanks is Russia can't produce enough to sustain their losses. A 100 T-90M tanks a year isn't gonna cut it.
@LayronPK2 ай бұрын
Isn't the btr-82a is a deep modernization of the older ones? Asking because I've heard someone say that and if that's the case, then they might not be able to keep up production rate due to lack of chassis
@erik2601962 ай бұрын
100 T-90Ms 300 BMP-3s 300-400 BTRs Per year. That's it. They could *maybe* push the production to 150 T-90Ms, 500 BMP-3s and 500 BTRs but that is still less than 4 months of losses.
@Elongated_Muskrat2 ай бұрын
Soon we will be counting golf carts and motorcycles.
@RealityCheck69692 ай бұрын
We already do… :) Btw those golf carts cost more than $20k. Which is a lot more than I thought.
@williamjacobs2 ай бұрын
@@RealityCheck6969 It has a heated seat for the caddy.
@bremnersghost9482 ай бұрын
Orcs be reforming the Cossack Cavalry soon, send them in on horseback and they are riding on their rations lol
@doodskie9992 ай бұрын
They are now using e-scooters lol
@usurp7952 ай бұрын
@@RealityCheck6969you are so delusional.
@0Coolrl02 ай бұрын
I think most of us would be delighted to have a 20 minute video where you go through the comparisons between each base.
@BjorckBengt2 ай бұрын
The stored ones are most likely picked in the order of best condition first, meaning that for every restored one the next will require more effort, time and cost. The rate of replenishment to the front lines already struggles to keep up with losses. This means that the number of vehicles at the front lines will diminish long before the last one is taken from storage.
@wishingb58592 ай бұрын
Counting on that!
@mareksuba2712 ай бұрын
Yes, the costs of restoration for each tank are increasing with every tank taken out of storage, not a great outlook for the russian state budget and economy. Even now if ordinary russian citizen borrows 3 million rubles from a bank for example, they are gonna pay 600 000 rubles the first year just for interest, without even touching the debt. Last year it was half the interest, but i will let tankie economists and russian shills explain how the russian economy is strong, healthy and only getting stronger.
@wishingb58592 ай бұрын
@@mareksuba271 That extra cost makes me smile more than anything. It means that Russia is highly unlikely to invade anyone else any time soon. The USSR stockpile is pretty much gone.
@WWFanatic02 ай бұрын
The fact that there's only ~700 tanks in the decent condition is staggering. What is more interesting though is how the ~2600 tanks pulled from storage IS LESS THAN the number visually confirmed lost. Even if we assume 100% of the damaged and abandoned ones are recovered and restored to full service, the Russians have still lose ~2800 destroyed and captured. If half the damaged/abandoned are permanent losses then the loss count is over 3000 for Russia. This is also a minimum count, not every tank lost will show up on a database.
@lodevandermeulen91032 ай бұрын
U don't know how many came from the covert storages... It's safe to say do they were used first as the probably were the best ones...
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
And not necessarily that's lower count, since how one or another smoldering wreck of t72 attributed to Ukraine or Russia is anyone's guess. And since most are not geolocated there's probably bunch of duplicates. It's obviously better than what both sides report, but nowhere near minimum count.
@WWFanatic02 ай бұрын
@@Daokl Ahh the Russian trolls always come out don't they? "But how do we know that T-72 is Russian??" When Ukraine had next to no T-72s in active service and few in storage while Russia used them as their primary tank. "But they're not geolocated" uh plenty of the OSINT lists are geolocated my guy. Funny how the same lines from over two years ago are still being repeated by you lot. I'm sure Russia is pulling out T-62s and T-55s because they are flush with tanks...
@WWFanatic02 ай бұрын
@@lodevandermeulen9103 Are the covert storages in the room with us right now? If you mean the garages, we have an upper limit on what they can store. Funny how this also ignores the fact that not all losses will be visually confirmed, particularly anything taken out by artillery.
@SC4RRiGAN2 ай бұрын
@@WWFanatic0Funny that syrskyj just said a few days ago that russia has much more tanks now than in the begining of the war. Same with ifv's and artillery. So you are just talking bs.
@hacep1602 ай бұрын
I watch Perun every week, trust me numbers are not boring.
@alexisjuillard48162 ай бұрын
Especially once hastely put on a graph on a PP page and left there for 10 minutes talking about it until the next slide comes. Talk abour keeping your audience on edge
@hacep1602 ай бұрын
@@alexisjuillard4816 I'll take that any time over animation. Long live defense economics with graphs on a PP slide
@alexisjuillard48162 ай бұрын
@hacep160 yep i call them my weekly PPPP (perun powerpoint presentation)
@wishingb58592 ай бұрын
That is exactly what I was thinking.
@bigearl38672 ай бұрын
Frankly, I think we'll see an influx of North Korean equipment by next fall.
@bladfadsfblaadsfsadf9002 ай бұрын
At that rate, it’s just going to be garbage in and garbage out. While older vehicles have shown their worth, their capabilities only go so far. If the West keeps providing current gen or last gen equipment on a regular or increased rate, we’re going to see an overmatch on the ground if the Ukrainians can even the odds and continue to whittle down Russia’s stocks.
@drgat69532 ай бұрын
That is the big if, can the west provide weapons to keep Ukraine in the fight, and can Ukraine supply the manpower before attrition wears them down.
@gypsycatcher182 ай бұрын
norks have very little in terms of "modern" equipment that they would be willing to part with, and asking for 60+ year old garbage would probably be too embarrassing even for russia
@daviddavidson14172 ай бұрын
@@bladfadsfblaadsfsadf900 If Russia are willing to do assaults on motorbikes they'll do it in obsolete NK vehicles.
@sandythethird22922 ай бұрын
You won't see any, for a very simple reason, north Korea doesn't have substantial production or stockpiles that aren't considered needed for their own defence. The artillery shell stockpiles were there because they have a constant production of them as well as large stockpiles. When it comes to vehicles they simply don't have them in numbers that could make a difference to Russian forces, even if they were willing to part with them. Dug in artillery is a cornerstone of nk defence industry that is easy for them to maintain, armoured vehicles are not.
@JorgeGarcia-lw7vc2 ай бұрын
The satellite pics are awesome, fascinating. Boring?--Hell no! Keep em coming, great work!
@stephanejanson2 ай бұрын
Definitely prefer the before / after table to a photo-by-photo. Great video!
@xxrockraiderxx2 ай бұрын
I know you think we'd be bored by a longer video but honestly I'd love a 2 hour plus long base by base breakdown of Russian vehicle stocks. As someone else said, a lot of us also watch Perun's videos so we're good with long form videos.
@IAmTheOnlyLucas2 ай бұрын
Subbed and mans uploaded 5 minutes later. Gotta love it.
@alexisrael17552 ай бұрын
Man I always love your 4:30 total count chart in every video, thanks 😃
@m.streicher82862 ай бұрын
Doing the lords work, thank you guys!
@angusabbott56152 ай бұрын
One thing for sure is that there’s only ONE stockpile of Soviet era equipment, and when it’s gone it’s gone 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇺🇸
@conclaveluminis2 ай бұрын
@@angusabbott5615 Russia is outproducing the combined west sweetie.
@robertscott9612 ай бұрын
@@conclaveluminis Who told you this ????... The kremlin ??
@historyisawesome63992 ай бұрын
I think you genuaily under estimate how large to soviet military was even at the HIGHEST of esitames russia has only lost about 3,000 tanks the ussr made 15,000 t-72 for domestic use 5,000 t-80s 40,000 ifvs
@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music2 ай бұрын
@@historyisawesome6399 And those obsolete systems were left to rot for decades.
@vwbora262 ай бұрын
@@historyisawesome6399most were not stored properly and are in bad conditions, if major part were not stolen and sold on the black market
@jjanovsky19832 ай бұрын
I wouldnt mind longer more detailed videos for major recounts. After all, Peruns 1 hour long videos are perfectly fine.
@davewebster51202 ай бұрын
I find it hilarious that, of all companies, hellofresh was your sponsor. For real, though, thank you for your extensive research. Some of this requires paying for recent satellite footage and people don't realize that.
@adolfolerito67442 ай бұрын
Although the video is as amazing as everything CC does, I just wanted to point out that it wasn’t the tank that broke the stalemate of trench warfare during WW1. What actually broke it was the invention and adoption on large scale of what would become modern squad tactics by the German military, which absolutely revolutionized the way war was waged and became the bedrock of modern military doctrine. Yes, the adoption of tanks put the final nail in the coffin, but that coffin had already been buried when Germany broke the Entente frontlines in the spring of 1918, even though she was in extreme inferiority of armaments, manpower, provisions, etc… and without tanks.
@goncalonunes32032 ай бұрын
Indeed, tanks were few and were constantly breaking down
@hellmes1826Ай бұрын
Combined arms with tanks was what western powers used to break the hindenburg line. The Germans had one strategy that worked, and the allied powers developed another.
@Shoelessjoe782 ай бұрын
I do enjoy the before and after pictures. So maybe not all as you noted but a couple at the start for perspective would be nice.
@bigdog80082 ай бұрын
There were also before and after pictures previously posted regarding russian military cemetaries. When looking at these images, all you can do is shake your head in disbelief at the extreme loss of life.
@Jack_Redview2 ай бұрын
With out images, it definitely doesn’t have covert cabal vibes. Just my individual opinion though
@shorgoth2 ай бұрын
They'll probably redduce the numbers on the battlefield tapering the numbers for a longer time, meaning the lacks of it will start to show sooner but they'll stay longer.
@MrChickennugget3602 ай бұрын
a lot of it is about being on the offensive as well. You loose more AFVs when you are attacking than defending.
@erik2601962 ай бұрын
I'd say using dirtbikes and turtle tanks/turtle AFVs/APCs is one of the signs already. When they brought out T-64,T-62, T-54/55 it was a sign that their active fleet suffered too much to carry on, sure they started bringing out stored vehicles of the same type they ran pre-war, but they had to start supplementing with older models. That was sign one, turtles and dirtbikes is sign two. Near-disappearance of models that had a lot of storage but are not produced at all anymore like for example T-80U/UD, MT-LB and BMP-2 will be the next sign.
@hedgehog31802 ай бұрын
@@erik260196 I think that's difficult to interpret because it could also be a sign of insufficient Russian supply and logistics, and really that's the only way to explain the Turtle Tanks. Why would you waste a valuable tank on this kind of field modification if you have the ability to repair front line vehicles and supply new ones? It'd make a lot more sense to apply this sort of modification to something less valuable like a MT-LB or at the very least an old shitbox tank like a T-55/62, instead we repeatedly saw T-64/72s being modified in this fashion. That being said golf carts and dirtbikes is a more unambigious sign of shortages though I guess they could have been looted from the civilian population near the front.
@sjonnieplayfull58592 ай бұрын
@@hedgehog3180what we call golf carts are actually Chinese supplied vehicles so not from local population
@hedgehog318028 күн бұрын
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 Well just because the vehicles are produced in China doesn't mean they couldn't have been brought by civilians in the local area.
@JuanValentino-yu1ft2 ай бұрын
In storage and operable is two different things . Putin thought he had 6000 modern tanks in reserve but in fact most were unserviceable and lacked even engines . Only 2000 were serviceable .
@Agnemons2 ай бұрын
Russias looming supply problem is like running out of fuel. You can run at full speed right up to the point where you runout. You then get a few sputters followed by a coast to a full stop. When it happens it will be sudden and will catch a lot of people by surprise.
@Jacksparrow49862 ай бұрын
Or they might preempt it or repairs will get more difficult and slower.
@themaskedarabrussian2 ай бұрын
Mr Cabal, welcome back! We have missed you...
@drgat69532 ай бұрын
Thanks for all the hard work you do CC. Just curious, with reports of some North Korean military vehicles appearing at the front, would it be worth while or even possible to do the same inventory check of the hermit kingdom, or do we not even know where there storage bases are.
@Erik_Ice_Fang2 ай бұрын
It would be harder as the North Koreans have a lot of underground storage in mountains
@rhedosaurus22512 ай бұрын
I can't help but wonder if Russia has any old BTR-152's left in storage. After all, if they are using ancient T-54's and T-55's, then why not?
@Jarod-vg9wq2 ай бұрын
Good point, heck they upusing motorcycles 🏍 and gold carts for crying out loud 😂 this rate russia won’t have a army to protect its internal borders.
@classifiedad12 ай бұрын
I believe the Soviets had phased them out long before the collapse. Same with the BTR-40 and BRDM-1. North Korea does continue to list machines like the ancient BA-64, BTR-40, and BRDM-1 as active service, and it is possible they would send these machines if so requested.
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
@@classifiedad1no, they left service in 1993. A long time before t55 that was around until 2009, but still after collapse not long before.
@LayronPK2 ай бұрын
I believe in terms of metal you can only go so far. If a vehicle is 80+ years old then there's a very big chance it's beyond repair due to simple metal rusting and lack of proper parts
@joblo3412 ай бұрын
We are already seeing shortages in AFV's. We see it in the steady increase in the number of civilian "sport" vehicles being used: golf carts, motorcycles, scooters and other civilian cars and trucks.
@JesterEric2 ай бұрын
That's because they move faster and are much harder for drones to hit
@MayaPosch2 ай бұрын
@@JesterEric Plenty of russian and Ukrainian video evidence that disproves that notion. If anything they make for easier prey for FPV operators. An FPV drone will always be faster, and having zero protection against a HE shell vs some armour makes the odds of survival much worse.
@Teknokraatti2 ай бұрын
@@JesterEric I've been seeing plenty of videos of soldier-carrying vans ("loafs") driving along on muddy roads close enough to the frontline that they were attacked by drones. They seemed to have a much harder time navigating the environment than tracked vehicles do. This would be perfectly in line with my experiences as a conscript of the Finnish army: We had to do all kinds of motor marches and deployments in forested terrain and surprisingly or not, the vans always needed more attention to placement and lines of movement in soft ground than MT-LBs did. I will offer my humble experiences in support of my opinion that if under attack, I would have much rather sat in an armored, tracked vehicle with plenty of torque and low ground pressure than in a civilian hatchback in the middle of a forest.
@hedgehog31802 ай бұрын
@@JesterEric even if that were true that doesn't really matter when the average rifle can take out the vehicle in question.
@esra_erimez2 ай бұрын
Very interesting and informative. Thank you.
@Bottlekiller2 ай бұрын
Thank you and the people on your team for doing this absolutely mind-numbing yet invaluable work. You guys are OSINT legends as far as I'm concerned.
@evilwelshman2 ай бұрын
In terms of showing satellite images, I think a possible middle ground option when there are too many to show is to select notable examples - perhaps ones with the most dramatic changes, or major bases, or ones that help with an observation you're making.
@masaharumorimoto47612 ай бұрын
Thanks , I always appreciate the efforts to update us, the hard work you do isn't lost on me, thanks again :)
@postItNoteObsession2 ай бұрын
6:15 so what are you saying is that they will run out of vehicles on battlefield before they run out of their total number of vehicles because their restore rate will drop closer and closer to their lose rate as they move to worse vehicles which means it will exponentially increase time to bring vehicles to battlefield. I say now(06.08.2024) because of this I think they will stop being able to hoard enough of their own vehicles for mechanized attacks and support around ~June 2025.
@DanielHeynderickx2 ай бұрын
The restore rates are already below the loss rates.
@bigsarge20852 ай бұрын
Intriguing as always, thank you!
@markb84682 ай бұрын
On a positive note...they do have a much larger submarine fleet and satellite constellation than pre-war. U gotta look for the silver linings...
@lexslate24762 ай бұрын
They're already substituting dirtbikes, offroad golf carts and weird-looking vans for proper armoured transports. I think their ability to get armoured vehicles in to the field is already failing to keep up with their need for at least some of these vehicle types, and it's only going to get worse, since the unarmoured substitutes they're using are putting their troops in more danger.
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
That's debatable. Choice between bmp1-2 or a dirt bike is not a easy one. Bmp is slow, noisy and can't protect against most things, including heavy machine guns. Bike is fast and while has no protection (or big gun), one can try to evade atgm or fpv-drone on it and if hit, there's less dudes injured, so enemy has to spend more ammo to get same result.
@Arkar-pl9ku2 ай бұрын
@@Daokl FPVs are generally faster than the dirt-bikes they are using (I’ve seen enough vids of them *trying* to outrun FPVs and failing) so evasion is out of the picture. They also can’t really put any kind of worth while jamming suites on top of those dirt-bikes. So really, it’s a case of takeout the lead biker, cause a pile up and then arty the rest as they fumble around.
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
@@Arkar-pl9ku there's videos where person on foot evades fpv, same with vehicles so there's always a chance, it's a question of skill (both of fpv and evader) and % of success, which we don't know. All being equal bmp is much more vulnerable target for fpv.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
@@Daoklthere is no way you are vouching for unarmored, uncovered bikes and scooters as a tactical advantage. just stop.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
@@Daoklyou are very ignorant 😂
@pezpengy93082 ай бұрын
superlative work sir.
@ZeroKelvin0K2 ай бұрын
I‘d watch an extended cut with all the images
@grimwaltzman2 ай бұрын
A note about T-64s: despite having almost 500 of them, they are unlikely to ever be pulled to action because of the lack of engines. Russia does not produce the 5TD and 6TD line of engines, and has no way to start the production. So all 500 of them are unlikely to leave the storage ever again.
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
Uzbekistan while modernizing their fleet of t64 changed their engines to ones that t72 uses. So it's possible, but probably not straightforward or cheap.
@DanielHeynderickx2 ай бұрын
Does the same hold for T-62? 1,000 left in poor/worst condition, maybe also lost for ever?
@Daokl2 ай бұрын
@@DanielHeynderickx it's possible they are, but not because of engine, since latest modifications used t72 engine. Same family of engines as original one, so a lot of commonality in any case.
@grimwaltzman2 ай бұрын
@@Daokl the fact Uzbeks managed to make a couple experimental models in which they managed to cram V-84 inside T-64 doesn't mean it is a valid solution. T-64 not working with V-2 derivatives was the main reason T-72 was developed.
@grimwaltzman2 ай бұрын
@@DanielHeynderickx T-62 was developed and made by Uralgovnozavod, and uses a V-2 derivative V-55V made by Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, so no, the same does not hold for T-62. Same for T-55.
@Hollyclown2 ай бұрын
The more information I see on Russian equipment, the more I feel like 2025 will be the definitive year for this war.
@drgat69532 ай бұрын
Wishful thinking. Still a lot at the front. And now there are signs Russia is getting equipment from North Korea.
@ForSteam-k6y2 ай бұрын
That would be the case... if this video wasn't dishonest in its framing. We have seen over 1300 T-72Bs LOST in combat. Hundreds more still active in combat. Yet only 443 pulled from outdoor storage with another 400 or so still in outdoor storage. We have no idea about indoor storage, underground, or non-tracked locations.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
@@drgat6953false. and there is no proof or even value there. youre just continuing to assume that russia has a gameplan.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
@@ForSteam-k6yruskie go get turned into a flowerbed. no one cares about your hollow words.
@jonathanpfeffer37162 ай бұрын
@@drgat6953and that solves the AFV issue how exactly? unless you’re legitimately positing that Russia ought to use lend lease NK T34s?
@jehandesains86742 ай бұрын
Personal opinion on future videos: you could have a long video with lots of details, and a short version for those with little time. Obviously the short video will get most views, but the in-depth analysis is valuable to those who care. For the short video, simply show the before and after total stats, like you do here around the 6 minute mark. For the long video, I think a lot of us would be interested in you showing the satellite images per base, before and after, with the data on what was there before and after, with a summary of everything at the end. This way we actually SEE the change (which also counteracts Russian trolls and disinformation), and we get a better idea of the condition of what's left. Also, the changes compared to previous reports and the change in classification. It is important information to understand how the Russian stockpiles are deteriorating. Just to give the example: saying Russian stockpiles went from 22k to 12k is one thing, but adding the fact that only 5K of those remaining 12k are actually worth fixing gives a different perspective. Of course there's also the matter of what Russia has OUTSIDE of those stockpiles. These stockpiles not depleting as fast as Ukraine claims they've destroyed Russian equipment, could be because the active equipment is reducing. For example, maybe Russia had 3000 active tanks on the frontlines, now reduced to 1500, which wouldn't show up on the stockpiles videos, but would have a significant impact on the war. I think, considering the amount of time you spend counting everything, adding it into a video wouldn't be that much extra work. Also: wouldn't these stockpiles have been great targets for saboteurs or long-range drones/missiles to attack? At least when there were still many left.
@flutschmaster10272 ай бұрын
Man, i love this channel! Must be so much work to count alll these vehicles and number them in different categorize. Thanks for that and best wishes from Germany! Great job!
@Digueirazz2 ай бұрын
glad you said that vehicles in bad shape can be restored, there are BMPs that russia restored that didn't even had turrets and their hulls were rusted.
@rogerk61802 ай бұрын
That describes pretty much all of them..
@steadyashegoes77632 ай бұрын
No, comrade. You misunderstand the genius of brilliant Russian deception plan. Glorious Russian military commanders request vehicles with much rust and no turrets so they most easily blend in with already destroyed vehicles on battlefield. It confuse Ukraine because they think the tank has already been destroyed. It is perfect camouflage!
@wishingb58592 ай бұрын
Yes, but to restore those costs a lot of production time and money. Eventually it costs more to rebuild things and they will buy more golf carts and motor cycles instead.
@tdawg57422 ай бұрын
Imagine telling USSR when they were at their height, that all their tanks that were meant to fight NATO, would all be lost fighting an Ex-USSR country member instead.
@madkoala21302 ай бұрын
Well they are fighting NATO, just they are losing all that equipment for fraction of NATOs stockpile.
@rick7424Ай бұрын
@@madkoala2130 Imagine performing so badly that NATO has lost zero soldiers after 2.5 years of combat.
@Simkus93082 ай бұрын
I'd like to see an overview of bases that became completely empty, and if you think they will be closed. And completely the opposite, which bases increased in numbers due to their ability to repair and prepare equipment for the front
@wishingb58592 ай бұрын
I am in agreement with all of the people who watch Perun’s hour-long detail-oriented presentations. This war is such a propaganda war and detail-oriented presentations is what preserves my mental health.
@davidhalliday77762 ай бұрын
1hr video of all the gory details please...
@zeddddd28462 ай бұрын
Fantastic numbers as always Love how through it always is. You are such a valued and appreciated member of the open source community I hope you know that
@geofflepper32072 ай бұрын
It may be hard if not impossible to extrapolate accurately but it seems reasonable to think it highly likely that if this war is still ongoing in autumn 2025 Covert Cabal will be putting out a video indicating that Russian stores of these types of military equipment in decent condition will have been virtually exhausted by then and to assume that by then Putin will be getting very nervous if the front line hasn't changed much by then.
@dannyzero6922 ай бұрын
Although Russia wouldn’t run of tanks as they have new factory built ones, their low numbers would stretch their armored capabilities thin limiting breakthrough and ultimately offensive capabilities. Realistically the Russian army is running on borrowed time on restored hardware and after that, if the situation hasn’t change, I expect them to switch to defensive operations and play the long game using hybrid warfare to dry out support for Ukraine in the West through bots and misinformation campaigns.
@herbertmistelbacher54052 ай бұрын
IMHO the 1311th in Verkhnyaya Pyshma is a triage place and logistics hub. Close to the Transsiberian (east west) and with rail connections to Chelyabinsk in the south (UTM, tank engines) and Nizhni Tagi(UralVagonZavod, tank factory) in the north nearby. Atypical for Russia is that this base has no rail sidings, but it is close to a Highway.
@NiktoPH2 ай бұрын
Damn 45% reduction of that insane soviet mess
@Chosen_Ash2 ай бұрын
Less tax dollars on worthless vehicles so sad
@rick7424Ай бұрын
@@Chosen_Ash Dollars? Did the US take over the Russian economy?
@PerryHacking2 ай бұрын
Your videos are so great. Thanks to all of you and your hard work. Satellite pics never grow old. You could spend much more time with comparisons and map locations, please. Also, could you show several examples of armored vehicles that barely made your "Decent" category and some examples of those that barely failed it? In addition, it would be useful to see typical examples of poor vehicles. I also agree with the comment below about the fade comparison instead of a wipe. Thanks again.
@mattmopar4402 ай бұрын
Most people think this is hella boring but I love it ! keep it up Covert Cabal
@viandengalacticspaceyards51352 ай бұрын
Thanks for your work.
@drfill92102 ай бұрын
There is software called multispec. It's free. Use it to train up your image and see if you can auto count your vehicles
@hughmungus69642 ай бұрын
I think it's cool to b able to see the bases and see the difference- before/after But I don't think everyone cares. I would recommend putting the summary at the beginning of the video and for those who care, the satellite imagery at the end of the video
@keithgraham95472 ай бұрын
I have been watching and trying to parse the numbers since this started. Here's my guess, and it's probably no worse than anyone else's, better than a bunch. For TANKS, I think Russia is "out" about the three-year anniversary, late February 2025, unless they get an infusion from some place like North Korea. By out, I mean they no longer replace losses on a 1:1 basis in theater. Best numbers I hear is they have around 2,400 tanks in theater. When they reach the "out" point, every loss is a real subtraction from what they can field. Who knows what they can add back. My guess is the replacement ratio drops rapidly to 2 for every 3 lost, and within a month or two 1 replacement for every 2 losses. And that keeps declining pretty quickly if this deep into 2025. This assumes the West keeps supporting Ukraine, and we don't see 300,000 North Korean troops show up. Nobody seems to remember that a country can't put 100% of their inventory into the theater. And well-trained crews have long been eviscerated. Most of what they have fielded since late summer 2022 has been old junk, and it's got to be only getting worse. Especially true of artillery, which numbers are harder to find. If Ukraine and the West hang tough, I think Russia is up shit creek already, and they're broken as "a military power" for at least 15 years.
@DanielHeynderickx2 ай бұрын
I think the loss rate is already well above the replacent rate, and has been for a while, so they've already been burning through their active tanks for at least since the beginning of 2025. Also, I've read that 90% of the Russian army is now in Ukraine (and has been for a while), which means Russian soil is now virtually undefended? The 1st Guards tank army which is supposed to guard Moscow against NATO invasion has been completely wiped out. Who's replacing them? I agree, Russia is defeated, they just don't know it yet or refuse to admit it to themselves. I suppose if you've been living in a delusion of infinite stock piles all your life, it's hard to shake that... Let's hope (and I'm not being cynical) that Russia keeps throwing in the kitchen sink, with minimal losses for Ukraine, hang on in there for another six months... Maybe next year Russia's great friend China will conclude that it's cheaper just to grab the Siberian oil and gas fields instead of paying for the stuff... The borders are wide open and unprotected...
@dharmdevil2 ай бұрын
That's some copious amount of copium, sir.
@keithgraham95472 ай бұрын
@@DanielHeynderickx Other than we're maybe defining replacement rate a little differently, I agree totally. I've said since this began, China has to be looking at a lot of open land and natural resources that are easy pickings. It makes much more sense to take Siberia than Taiwan. Russia can't possibly defend it. China doesn't have to get in a shootout with a SEATO-type alliance. They already have railroads into Siberia where they have been harvesting trees and minerals (mainly to sell cheap shit to the US market). They're creating an environmental mess. I could see a deal. "We give you 500,000 troops. You take Ukraine, be European power. We take Asian Siberia. Or maybe you not want deal, and we take anyway?" If the US was smart and politicians not totally corrupt, we would put high tariffs or an embargo on China and cancel all debt they hold. China's economy collapses, they have to pull back from colonialism they have around the world, Russia takes it in the shorts, and somebody gives both dictators Excedrin Headache #9mm.
@silverstar25792 ай бұрын
@@DanielHeynderickxYou are really two complete zombies, who have read propaganda trash, watched delusional victory speeches and "analytical" nonsense, that you do not even realize how distorted your understanding of the situation in the war xD And now you try to such "analytics" ) But the funny thing is... Being under propaganda is one thing, but there must be some logic. It's like you have the memory of a fish. I wonder what you will come up with in six months ? And in another six months? And in another ? How will you have Russia "already defeated" again xD
@silverstar25792 ай бұрын
You are really two complete zombies, who have read propaganda trash, watched delusional victory speeches and "analytical" nonsense with inherently false figures, that you do not even realize how distorted your understanding of the situation in the war xD And now you try to such "analytics" ) But the funny thing is... Being under propaganda is one thing, but there must be some logic. It's like you have the memory of a fish. I wonder what you will come up with in six months ? And in another six months? And in another six months? How will you have Russia "broken as a military power" again xD
2 ай бұрын
I'm still amazed that we can have this information available to the general public for free (with just some ads) these days. We are truly living in the future, and you are doing the Lord's work!
@hklassehutten14762 ай бұрын
Video starts at 4:23
@calebbearup42822 ай бұрын
Last Sunday I thought I went through and found every video I missed. Somehow I'm just now seeing this. Better late than never
@welbhloud2 ай бұрын
One by one.... great work guys!
@AlexLee-dc2vb2 ай бұрын
glad to see you uploading again bro
@tomfurstyfield2 ай бұрын
There are reports of them using North Korean vehicles now.
@whoareyouyouareclearlylost3232 ай бұрын
Great research and very unbiased W
@platonslynko77852 ай бұрын
Suggestion: start figuring out math on how many armored vehicles are on the frontline or in service. While decrease from storage is noticeable, it might mean that the frontline got “thicker”, with more ruzzian units being equipped with vehicles. While I don’t know the numbers, but my feeling is that the rate at which ruzzia loses vehicles increases, but also their in-service capacity increased as well. Thus, I hope there can be some estimates on “in-service” capacity
@baneofbanes2 ай бұрын
Iirc current estimates are like 3k Russian tanks in service right now, running the gamut form T90 to T55 (I don’t know the variants)
@dannyzero6922 ай бұрын
“Didn’t you heard? Russia is fighting NATO!” “Wow what happened to Russia?” “Tens of thousand of armored vehicle loses and half a million men casualties” “What happened to NATO?” “They haven’t arrived yet.”
@Nathan-Roman2 ай бұрын
The whole "Russia is at war with NATO, that's why we're losing" thing is so ridiculous, and no amount of Ivan's laughing/crying emojis will convince anyone with a brainstem otherwise
@charlesrichardson86352 ай бұрын
You are the expert so I trust you to pick the right pictures, I do like them.
@sylvainricky85692 ай бұрын
We notice old Soviet weapons used on the Ukrainian front. Russia cannot strip its borders like that with China.
@oneshotme2 ай бұрын
I very much enjoyed your video and I gave it a Thumbs Up
@aruunmenon2 ай бұрын
When are you gonna do a similar count for Ukraine?
@Princip6662 ай бұрын
There is nothing to count.
@aruunmenon2 ай бұрын
@@Princip666 Then he should start counting from 0 and stop wherever it ends. He should count though, since he has been counting the Russians for so long. Lately, that is all he has been doing. I hope is getting paid enough for it.
@Princip6662 ай бұрын
@@aruunmenon His target audience is definitely not the people who want to hear balanced information.
@baneofbanes2 ай бұрын
Ah are the ruskis mad that their impending equipment depletion is being broadcasted to the world?
@baneofbanes2 ай бұрын
@@Princip666as if you guys want that either.
@Gnilron_game2 ай бұрын
Excellent video as always. I am grateful to you and high marsed for your hard work so that we can get this quality information. Will there be another video of russian artillery in storage?According to ukraine the russians lost over 16 000 pieces so far so it would be interesting to see if the the numbers add upp.
@ChristopherSloane2 ай бұрын
Got into a debate with some idiot that was posting on yesterday that Russian t72 series tanks are just misunderstood and actually of high-quality I never thought I would laugh so hard in my life
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
misunderstood like its an emo child and not a battle tested tank 😂 thing is cheeks
@ptonpc2 ай бұрын
It was good enough for the time it was designed, the conditions it was expected to fight in and the role it was designed for. None of which is Ukraine in the 2020s.
@yarnickgoovaerts2 ай бұрын
When it was introduced it was very good. Now they’re still surprisingly good for their age, but definitely not as good as actual modern vehicles
@sjonnieplayfull58592 ай бұрын
Those with Ukrainian crews do quite well. Or at least not as crappy
@yaraelpoof72422 ай бұрын
Outside of Iraq the t-72 has performed equal or better than western tanks
@HolyReality2 ай бұрын
Thank you as always
@TomsGotPowers2 ай бұрын
It's getting disappointing with the lack of videos recently, then we get 6 mins (2 mins of ads). I've been a long-time subscriber, and I miss the longer format you used when creating videos.
@Steve-yf9myАй бұрын
Thanks!
@beefstew65122 ай бұрын
video starts at 4:22
@invincibearofficial2 ай бұрын
I normally skip sponsorship segments. I didn't skip yours, thanks for counting dots
@PaladinMesser2 ай бұрын
If a cabal is overt, is it still a cabal?
@baneofbanes2 ай бұрын
Yes
@bikechainmicАй бұрын
20 years ago I helped a team , legitimatly, salvage spares from these tank graveyards for restorations in the West. We literally just hacked these wrecks apart to extract what we needed and oftan found the scrap thieves had taken anything of value already. Not so much a tank reserve store, as a scrapyard. One was even charging the kremlin for undercover warm storage, but suffice to say it was just a muddy field in the middle of no-where. Corruption had even by then destroyed much .
@saumyacow44352 ай бұрын
Hey Covert Cabal. I am trying to reconcile your figures with those published by Ukraine's General Staff and the figures given by General Syrsky in his most recent interview. Syrksy said this: "Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” - from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armored personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900." How do you interpret Syrsky's numbers? Is he counting on refurbished vehicles. Or vehicles now located in Ukraine?
@ivermectindealer2 ай бұрын
Russia is pulling armor out of storage and putting it into the battlefield. Syrsky is talking about systems actively being used, not those in storage
@sjonnieplayfull58592 ай бұрын
Units previously not deployed to Ukraine have now been sent: ask Finnish border guards. SAM systems from the Far East have been sent as well. In 2022, Putin counted on a quick campaign and only sent what could be easily gathered. Today, he is throwing everything AND the kitchen sink at Ukraine. Not just the restored ones, also repaired ones and new built stuff and even some captured ones Also dont forget Syrsky might exaggerate slightly in order to keep Nato on their toes: in September 2022 it looked like Ukraine had won and we would not need to send more stuff: they still suffer for our mistake back then
@ehqueBM2 ай бұрын
Without reading too much into it, it's logical to me that Syrsky's talking specifically about tanks/guns/APCs being used (or in Ukraine). He's not going to care about how many are in storage. It's not a contradiction that the number of systems in use has gone up while the number of systems in storage have gone down significantly.
@sjonnieplayfull58592 ай бұрын
@@ehqueBM plus the ones from units not sent to Ukraine on day one. Weird how KZbin removes comments just because they are offensive to Russia s
@saumyacow44352 ай бұрын
@@ehqueBM That was my first take on it too. Logic says the total cannot go up, but those units actually in Ukraine can, because of the rate a which they come out of storage. However, let's take a look at APCs. CC says there were 22,173 in storage pre-war. I'm not sure if this list includes repair bases, but I assume it does. Now, or at least the now that was when the photos were taken, there are 12,504. So presumably 9,669 have been taken out of storage. I used to think (can't remember from what source) that Russia's "active fleet" of APCs was more like 5,000 (certainly at least 3,000). Syrsky gives the figure 4,500 pre-war so I'll take that as axiomatic. What this means is that of those 9,669 taken out of storage, 4,400 were adding to the active fleet. Meaning 5,269 have been lost. Just checking out Oryx, I see 6,528 armored vehicles of all types as of today. Extrapolating that back to the date of the satellite images and (guess) its more like 6,000. So there's a discrepancy. Losses come in below Oryx's figures. And Oryx is lowball on account of its methodology. Personally I'd accept Oryx times 2 as plausible, but even lower benchmarks still leaves a significant discrepancy here. Which is to say that there were thousands of additional armored vehicles either in "active fleet" (ie on the Ukraine side of the pipeline) or hiding under those sheds, or even somewhere else. I'm willing to believe the premise that the ones under the sheds went first. I'm also willing to believe that Russia had a bunch stashed away under a roof somewhere, particularly in places like Donetsk. If I were to try to reconcile all of this with the Ukraine General Staff's figures (16,300 losses now, perhaps 14,000 at the time of the satellite photo) then Russia had an additional ~10,000 armored vehicles not accounted for by Syrksy or those visible at bases. Only the history books will tell I guess. But it would not surprise me at all if Russia had been this deceptive. And my final thought is.. If Russia truly has 8,900 in its active fleet and a possible 6,000 odd recoverable from bases. Why is it taking active steps to ration their use using unconventional vehicles?
@khaack91312 ай бұрын
Yeah, I would like to see the images :)
@NothernNate2 ай бұрын
Putler is just not having a good time conquering Ukraine 😂 #Russia Fail Army!
@danielmlinar48922 ай бұрын
That's why they are advancing and Zelensky is begging for negotiations🤡
@TheAbortionWhoLived2 ай бұрын
@@danielmlinar4892 Begging for negotiations? We are warmongers till the last Ukrainian buddy. Get your brainrot right
@sjonnieplayfull58592 ай бұрын
@@danielmlinar4892 the average snail moves five meters per day. In the Avdiivka region, Russia moved four times slower than that.... Do you want to boast about that?
@danielmlinar48922 ай бұрын
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 The average russian movement is more like 5 kilometers and Ukraine has much heavier casulties anyways but keep coping🤣
@bigdog80082 ай бұрын
@@danielmlinar4892 Is that why the Ukrainians invaded Kursk today? That's 50km inside ruzzia.
@drsnova73132 ай бұрын
Since the beginning of this war it was baffling to me that Russia didn't build warehouses to store their tanks in. It's an insignificant expense compared to having to bring back tanks into an operational state after decades of heat, cold and rain. You can also lock warehouses and control entrance easier to prevent theft. Also, it would make it impossible to gauge Russia's reserves. Let alone by some guys on youtube.
@AlternativeGeopolitics2 ай бұрын
Now do Ukraine
@Shoelessjoe782 ай бұрын
Perun did one a couple of weeks ago.
@chefchaudard35802 ай бұрын
@@ForSteam-k6yWatch it, and only after, comment. You’ll look less stupid.
@rick74242 ай бұрын
@@ForSteam-k6y That is a blatant lie.
@Moonbaboon13372 ай бұрын
I would love a longer video with in detail description and satellite images
@andersonklein35872 ай бұрын
Well, more realistically, it seems like it will be another 2 years before any kind of downsizing really happens on the frontline deployments. I don't envy the task of grinding another 100k+ Russians down on the frontlines for another 700+ days. And the worst part is that if Russia does end up forced to downsize their deployment, they can always just switch from offense to defense and hold. Save for a miracle coup or revolution in Russia, it seems the best possible outcome will involve Ukraine continuing to pay a very high price with no respite and no guarantees that they will have more territory in 2027 than they do right now. But if the Russian government continues stubbornly on the offensive until then, it will change the world, Russia will be left completely disarmed, 60 years of military buildup wiped out in 4.
@JesterEric2 ай бұрын
They can get more from Belarus to last another year
@ChucksSEADnDEAD2 ай бұрын
Switching to defense after getting their force degraded that much is not gonna work that well.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
I'm sorry where is your proof and reasoning behind another 2 years of war and these numbers? seems like you pulled them from your bunghole.
@ItsJoKeZ2 ай бұрын
@@JesterEricsays who? why? do you have proof? show me how and where and what. stop just talking mindlessly.
@esra_erimez2 ай бұрын
Interesting video, very informative. Thanks.
@ForSteam-k6y2 ай бұрын
This methodology seems very limited, interesting, yet limited. When looking at Oryx numbers: Russia has lost 1312 variations of T-72Bs. In this list we have seen a reduction of 443 from storage. T-72Bs are also still wildly fielded across the battlefield and see losses consistently. So it seems that pulling 443 from storage for either replacement or cannibalisation has been able to support a fleet of ~2000. The rest being moved around in transit or stored somewhere far away from the sat images or indoors. Without having any idea of the ratio of what we see, to total, it really is extremely difficult to say they'll start experiencing shortages sometime soon.
@sH-ed5yf2 ай бұрын
Dont forget that russia had a active tank fleet something between 2500 and 3000. They replace newer models like t80 t90 and older t72 with very old t64 and t62
@ForSteam-k6y2 ай бұрын
@@sH-ed5yf Yes, T64s = very old. Even though they are the backbone of Ukraine's fleet (which is dying out, yet you don't see muh analysis videos on that). But here's the fun thing, look at the stats, they very clearly aren't even touching T-64s, look at the losses, the vast majority of tanks being used are still t-72, t-80s and t90s. You clearly have no clue what you're talking about, so just move along.
@sH-ed5yf2 ай бұрын
@@ForSteam-k6y I answered your problem about how so few t72s are pulled from storage
@ForSteam-k6y2 ай бұрын
@@sH-ed5yf You didn't because that isn't being reflected in usage. T-72B active fleet needs way more swaps than just 400. So there is something missing.
@gawkthimm60302 ай бұрын
Oryx loss numbers are always lower than the reall loss numbers, as they are only visually confirmed losses, and there are obviously many more not visually confirmed.
@juhotuho102 ай бұрын
Seeing the satellite before / after pics is interesting, so it would be cool for those to be included somewhere
@danielmlinar48922 ай бұрын
Probably next year sure the amount of wishful thinking here is astronomical. Russia has 2 times more tanks and ifvs and 3 times more artillery than in 2022 according to Sirsky, so they are not only able to sustain losses for years but accumulate strength as well, while ukranian military is eroding and they are not getting 125 tanks and 250 ifvs a month from NATO like Russian troops. The fact of the matter is Russia can refubrish 1200 tanks and build 300 new a year, and they can sustain this for years to come even if we not take into account that they are actually build one tank factory after the other so they are making more and more new tanks as well...Oh and the fact that despite of years of TOW and Javelin production were sent to Ukraine and they could still put more AFV to the front makes it evident that Ukraine can't destroy more than they make.
@VuldEdone2 ай бұрын
They have 2 times more tanks/ifvs and 3 times more artillery than in 2022 in active service. That's not stockpiles. They won't be able to refurbish 1200 tanks/year if no tank is left in stockpile. And they don't build 300 tanks/year, the most optimistic number is 100/year and that's with upgrades (from T-90A to T-90M). Ukraine is estimated to have as many tanks now as it started with, through captures and donations. The fact of the matter is Russia is running out of tanks, IFVs and somehow even artillery.
@Princip6662 ай бұрын
@@VuldEdone "Ukraine is estimated to have as many tanks now as it started with, through captures and donations. " - That's a good one, mind if I borrow it and share it with friends for a good laugh?
@shaun71422 ай бұрын
If by "accumulate" you mean they took equipment out of storage, then yeah. They have increased their active numbers by fighting a war that requires those numbers rather than simply building up that equipment. If instead of starting a vanity war the Russians had built up their military, then you could legitimately claim their military was accumulating strength. As it stands, they are using up their inheritance to conquer Ukraine, of all places.
@danielmlinar48922 ай бұрын
@@VuldEdone Cope harder buddy, I just stated facts that are acknowledged by both ukranian and western media. Russia does refubrish 100 tanks and makes 25 new a month and this is the bare minimum, since it is admitted even by anti Russian sourcesxd They already have thousands in stockpiles they are not runningout of anything soon and there is literally zero evidence to support this bs either. Ukraine doesn't have anything on the other hand🤣🤣
@shaun71422 ай бұрын
"Zero Evidence", aside from all the evidence including this video.
@nils15432 ай бұрын
Thank you for a great video. What sources of satellite images are you using? Are there any you'd recommend?