Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector || Peter Zeihan

If you've read my latest book, you know that a driving force behind deglobalization is the US Navy stepping away from its role as patroller of the world's oceans.
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#maritime #trade #geography #geopolitics

[@Scott-ru4ev]

Peter just to clarify, it wasn’t until recently that the US Navy has pulled the CSG’s out of the Middle East. I was involved when the last CSG heading to the Gulf was turned around in the IO before chopping into C5F in September 2021. They were reassigned to SCS to monitor the Chinese and provide a presence. You are correct, since then it’s been primarily ARG’s and for short periods just a handful of CG’s/DDG’s patrolling in the Gulf. I have spent the last 17 years in Asia/Middle East working for the Navy. Pretty much everything you’ve been saying regarding the Navy and it’s changing role in providing maritime security to international commerce on the high seas is spot on.

[@craigpage2638]

But did your CSGs do enough STRMs to have enough SCSs for when you needed to IRT? Because otherwise your ARG is wide open to the YHDR and you'll never be able to FPW on your SNC.

[@MarcIverson]

@@craigpage2638 I've said that many times.

[@bhodie131]

@@craigpage2638Not enough acronyms

[@TheZoePath]

@@craigpage2638 My thoughts exactly! 😂😂😂

[@Scott-ru4ev]

@@craigpage2638 Good point! 😂

[@bigman23DOTS]

When the Middle East is colluding with russia to fix oil prices and expecting their shipping to be automatically protected well ……that’s another issue

[@jamesparker1071]

We have our own oil. Before Joe, America was energy independent and exporting oil. 🤷

[@veronicamaine3813]

@@jamesparker1071 you know that is not true right? Please stop watching fox. It’s literally sored to it’s highest rate in 70 years -your beloved trump was busy helping sure up russian oil in case you didn’t remember.

[@calmingrelaxationsaudio1232]

​@@jamesparker1071we still are lol we are producing more today than pre covid...

[@Bayard1503]

@@jamesparker1071 Stop listening to political propaganda. How is US not energy independent anymore?? 2022 was the single greatest year in terms of production in history and most likely 2023 will beat it again. This is under Biden administration...

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

​@@jamesparker1071The US was not energy independent for like 70 years you crackhead.

[@nathandanner4030]

"Empires do not suffer emptiness of purpose at the time of their creation. It is when they have become established that aims are lost and replaced by vague ritual."-Frank Herbert

[@falcon2489]

Wow, great quote. Really emphasizes the need for a cohesive, national vision. Something America needs right now.

[@Quickshot0]

I'm a bit dubious of the exact way this is stated. It's unlikely the USA would pull out of all areas immediately, more likely it would just have some particular areas that it would stop having much interest in. As is kind of suggested by Zeihan here as well. The reason is that while Zeihan waves over supply chain breaks as some thing the USA could just ignore, it actually really can't. The USA has a variety of highly important supply chains itself globally that it can not just ignore, like for instance the semiconductor supply chains covering Europe-USA and part of Asia. Still from this you can kind of guess which areas of the world they might become less interested.

[@FrogDad556]

As a Navy veteran who was station on one of those Aircraft Carriers for numerous deployments to the Gulf.. He's spot on. Once I saw Iran jacking tankers I knew we were done being the Gulf's policemen.

[@danharold3087]

some experts believe that the US could become independent in semiconductors within the next 5-10 years.

[@aeronothis5420]

The US doesn't have to pull out of areas. We can just let it be known that we won't bother with protecting certain flags on the shipping lanes. If you're coming through the straight of hormuz or the bab al mandab straight where most of the worlds attempted piracy occurs and you know that a ship carrying russian goods isn't as protected as one with a french flag they are going to target the russian goods. Its the same concept as how not to get robbed. I don't have to be the most secure home in the neighborhood. I just have to be more secure than my neighbor. Pirates, Robbers, Thieves they aren't stupid, they know that if they want to win, they have to hit the weakest targets.

[@zoomzoom3950]

@@danharold3087 if the US doesn't self-destruct and implode first

[@Quickshot0]

@@FrogDad556 Agreed, the gulf does seem like it's becoming a point of less interest. Most of the US allies are trying to shift as much to renewables as well. regardless of if they fully succeed or not, the developed worlds need of oil and gas is bound to decline substantially due to that in the next decade or two. Which makes the place only ever less interesting really for them. Who would choose the least stable area if they can meet their needs elsewhere. @danharold3087 Those experts are probably overly optimistic of things. Or they just mean specific goods rather then the entire very long, very complex and very difficult to replicate semiconductor supply chain. For instance trying to reinvent ASML EUV devices would be very difficult in less then a decade and take lots of manpower that the USA would find where exactly? What with all the other things they need. And the various masks, tools, etc that Japan does would take substantial efforts. Last I heard from industry experts, they thinking just phasing a few places out of that supply chain is probably the most one can hope for in the next decade... in which case the USA would probably choose China if it can I imagine.

[@benz9063]

What Peter is saying is that Pirates will become the next hot new career!

[@dieterspecht36]

Or that Chinese navy will take a step forward.

[@benz9063]

@@dieterspecht36Ah yes please! A land empire facing long term corruption problems, dramatic economical and demographic decline wants to take out more debt to build a larger navy to patrol the ocean for the benefit of other nations. Bravo! Please do it China! Whole heartedly welcome!

[@sashaoblak]

I got my eye patch ready

[@mrcobbynot]

I watch everyone of this guys Info Vlogs. He is not always right but he is right more often than most talking heads out there. This man is a genius on global affairs and economics period.

[@ngmookleong3415]

he depends on viewer to make a few bucks . pitiful like most genius i guess .

[@JorgeMartinez-ez1jl]

No hate but just wondering what you think Peter is not right about?

[@barryraymond9004]

@@JorgeMartinez-ez1jl He predicted that Iran and USA would end up being friends and like almost everyone else that Ukraine would be overrun by Russia though he nailed 2022 as the date of the war back in 2018. He predicted 200 dollar oil and famine last year, but has revised that to the coming year and "now". His predictions are based on mainly demographics but he cannot predict personalities. Most everything else he has predicted has been spot on.

[@SpookyFow]

@@JorgeMartinez-ez1jl Anything regarding domestic politics he's always wrong about. His global geopolitical opinions are always spot on though.

[@CMVBrielman]

He’s got a good and plausible framework for global affairs. He does do much worse the more he narrows his focus.

[@Justan669]

The world is going to find out what the saying "be careful what you wish for" really means

[@Geojr815]

Exactly. The world needs a serious reminder of what America provides. Way too much anti-American rhetoric out there

[@chaosXP3RT]

Nah, they'll still blame the US. Whatever happens, we will be at fault

[@zee9709]

I think it also lost for US if they give up navy supremacy, dollar would also weaken due to the world would start to look for alternative for security. Maybe UK pound would become second world currency if they decide to fill in, or maybe turkey.

[@dw620]

@@zee9709 The current Turkish leadership would need to obtain an understanding of basic economics first.

[@DZ4295DBW]

​@@Geojr815Also, china has been actively trying to decouple from the US economy...via building physical trade routes over land from the mainland. Actively trying to Usurp traditional trade routes and offset the US consumer base. Along with less risky fuel/oil routes. US apathy is going to bite us in the ass

[@nugmit1]

I was in the U.S. Navy 87-93 and got to witness the fall of the Soviet Union. I have mixed emotions about this. The Navy has changed dramatically since I was in and several other NATO countries now also patrol the most pirate infested waters. Maybe the lack of our dominance will change some attitudes about what the US actually brings to the table. The problem, I believe, is that it might come at an unexpectedly high cost. Short term - bad. Long term - could be positive. I guess we'll see...

[@handroids1981]

Hmm, interesting isn't it? Does America see long instability because of demographic reasons and therefore seek to conserve war supplies and pick off any winners they don't like? Or perhaps it's time to deal with all the Russian government/ mob backed organized crime issues. As well as the Chinese government backed drug cartel issues through out North, Central and South Americas?

[@rd9831]

If anyone imagined US navy was a global protector ,they are absolutely delusional and and most probably on hallucinations inducing drugs. Think of vietnam. Syria, libya, Afghanistan and the list goes on and on.

[@bubamaranovichok4901]

You could and would be lucky to see the earth shaking change. And I’m telling you why. You are registered as a veteran of the US navy. Do you think that today’s technology they can not follow every one of the fuckers who destroyed countless countries? The patrolling foreign waters is not your fucking business just like it’s not Nato job either. Why do you think those waters become infested with pirates? I was served on the other side during the Vietnam war and how did that ended? You have to learn a lot about your countries pirates technics under the cover of words like freedom of navigation or democracy and the best example is that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. All bullshit!

[@iartol]

I think it's gonna be bad

[@suebruce493]

Short term good, long term better for US.

[@someguy5183]

I would love to hear Peter's advice for individuals in North America on what we can do to prepare for the coming changes. I know that might be a big ask as it probably depends on individual factors, but are there investments to consider, should you rent or own a home, and what commodities are going to become more difficult to aquire? Thanks so much for these videos. You're making sense of the mixed messages our biased media sends us.

[@MissionSilo]

Be part of a tight knit local community

[@DomoArigatoRobot0]

Seconding this motion@@MissionSilo

[@markpukey8]

Most of his books include a chapter on how he sees these changes impacting the US. Short version "It might suck a bit here, but it will suck a whole lot worse everywhere else". Remember, we have zero security issues. We have the ability to selectively trade with anyone we want, and we can certainly protect our own shipping if that is necessary. We are energy and food independent. We are in the process of bringing a huge amount of our needed industry either to the US or to Mexico right now. Peter deals in the Macro issues, so I doubt we'll ever see any Micro economics videos about what "you and I" should be looking at. He's a big picture kind of guy.

[@thebigcat2390]

Stock up on food, water and emergency supplies. Stay in good physical shape. Become proficient with firearms and stock up on ammo. Have bug out bags for the family and have a plan. That’s the best start. We’re 3 missed meals away from societal collapse, looting, rioting, raping, and murdering. Shit can get real savage real quick.

[@Soundwave-F7Z]

Renting is the most stupid thing you could ever do in life. But if you don’t have money, then you have no choice

[@phueal]

It’s really great when Peter provides not just optimistic analysis like this, but also actual actionable ways forward so that we can all take the necessary steps to adapt. I feel so confident now!

[@DianaDeLuna]

🥴😵‍💫😵

[@keithwilliams8342]

Lol 😏😒😬

[@Agatesforbrains]

Ziehan is going to become a meme for talking out your ass.

[@phueal]

@@Agatesforbrains yeah, I think you may be right. I’m new to him, but so far I find I’m definitely not agreeing with all his analysis. He does always present a new perspective though, often one that I hadn’t considered.

[@AFuller2020]

The USN was recommissioned in the 1800's to fight pirates and protect the oceans, that will not change because of what Peter says.

[@SkeenCharles]

Thanks, Peter. I enjoy getting these well informed updates. And they seem to be relatively objective. Good find having found your channel.

[@Rowlph8888]

The processs Explained may have some truth, but the interpretatiion of reasons, is entirely false. the USA Chose the Balance of the world right now, and did nothing for anyone else (as usual). They got lucky due 2 competitors being destroyed and Impoverished With their geographical misfortune… Whilst They made money Bankrolling war efforts, in relative safety , Halfway Across the world, for nearlyA decade ((both wars)

[@gfys756]

​@@Rowlph8888Too bad. Europeans are war mongers and almost destroyed themselves before begging the USA for help. Europe colonized and enslaved the world for their own benefit, yet turn around and act like the arbiters of human rights.

[@geanyuss7608]

Glad I found this channel, you break things down so simply for such complex issues. Love wherever it may be you film these as well, looks like you found your paradise.

[@mick7557]

Zeihan write his own reviews - this stupid comment appears on most of his videos - this wt panty gushing remark is cringe worthy

[@rkaid7]

Bumped into him at the end of a 8d hike in New Zealand, few months back. Wild.

[@philipmiller2618]

I've read all four of your books. You've changed how I look at several issues. I've become a more critical thinker. Before I never thought of Geography and Demographics, and their consequences. Any new books coming out soon? Keep the books and videos coming. Keep up the good work.

[@georgesmith113]

This guy has educated me so much about the world economy and politics .His books are a great read and so educational Wish our leaders would read them every American for that matter

[@wylldflower5628]

I wish our leaders would explain even half as well as he does.

[@MsDragonbal776]

As a former naval sailor, i happily cosign this state of affairs. Spending several months at a time away from your family andbfriends becomes all the more intolerable when you recognize how capable host nations are of protecting their own waters.

[@kendannon4435]

Well said mate.

[@charliesmash]

Spoken like a true 3rd grader.

[@CPT.Ventis]

If you’re more worried about your time with family and friends then maybe don’t join the military….

[@MsDragonbal776]

@@CPT.Ventis im all for deploying when it's necessary. Acting like a glorified security guards for people who refuse to finance their own security is NOT a necessity .

[@_PatrickO]

The draw downs has been republican policies to empower dictators. Vote blue in the next election or watch the military get dismantled from within by republicans. Global security is important, but republicans are xenophobic nut jobs that don't want any military forces outside our borders or territorial waters. They think we can just be friends with dictators and that dictators will invade every other country, but magically stop at the US and let the US exist untouched. It is all nonsense. Vote!

[@bonanzatime]

I think we should continue protecting our allies, and cease protecting our enemies. I think ceasing to protect our enemies is a smart thing to do. It Just Makes Sense!😀☝

[@DivadNoodeldehm-lz2gm]

Punishing allies and rewarding allies was the standard operating procedure of the Obama admin.

[@avisitorhere]

Paying off your enemies like Egypt, helps protect your allies, like Israel. That always doesn't go so well, ie Afghanistan and Iraq most of South America etc.

[@Roboticpycotic]

Since when do the Americans use force to protect their enemies?

[@blafonovision4342]

I think we should stop protecting our allies, too. When have ever come and protected us?

[@blafonovision4342]

@@Roboticpycoticsince Bretton Woods.

[@Synthminator]

Really enjoying (well, 50/50 being scared as a southern european) the book!! thanks for putting it together! Cheers

[@arminiuschatti2287]

Times are dark but we’ll get through this. I highly doubt the U.S. will abandon Europe.

[@urtyp6596]

What makes you think so? What country are you in ? Cheers

[@urtyp6596]

Southern europe has at least nice Weather.... Im german. Where are you from? Cheers

[@SpaceCafeCanada]

This is my favorite background of the week, thanks fer being U Peter!!!

[@smackroscoe]

For decades they’re screaming, “USA GET OUT OF (fill in blank)! Oh, OK. Good luck with that.

[@bcluett1697]

Those voices would be the the dudes with guns wanting to hijack shipping. Pirates and state actors alike. Iran being a prime example of a nuisance on the sea.

[@rh906]

That's freeloaders for ya. They armchair you to death and then beg for them to keep freeloading when you finally want to shake them off.

[@Justsaying-cg2nz]

They will cry when China take away their land, they will whine and throw tantrums. Let them be it is what they have chosen. China propangada works. Well, that is drama but there is nothing to be worried about. Life carry on.

[@Alex-fm5ke]

No one is saying the US navy shouldn’t patrol the oceans. They say stop invading or supporting coups of democratically elected leaders

[@AfroVersity]

This ignrant comment shows how Americans are ignorant to think they're world police. The world will and is moving on without USA.

[@basbekjenl]

Honestly I think it would be healthy for America to bring its navy home and see what will break. It will give everyone a good reminder on why pirates were so universally hated. But to me the global economic slowdown and all the tragedy that would come with that would make for a great wake up call. We do not need cheap goods made over there, we just need to make those same goods cheaply here, not by underpaying workers but by healthy economic competition between businesses at home.

[@DivadNoodeldehm-lz2gm]

Have every American read both The Federalist Papers and President Washington's Farewell Address. No reason for us to have a large standing army and intelligence agencies. These are injurious to our freedoms, liberties, and checkbooks. There is no reason for us to be involved in Europe's affairs militarily, just with trade and diplomatic contacts.

[@utahcornelius9704]

@@DivadNoodeldehm-lz2gm Um, the reason for helping the Ukraine is to prevent our one existential threat, Russia, from regaining its USSR footprint. They are an existential threat, by the way, because they have the nukes to annihilate us, as they remind us and Europe every single day. Interesting to see you oppose that existentail war but not the truly stupid one in Iraq. Interesting to see you want to increase Russia's chances of winning on the eve of an election, which they, a foreign power, may be able to help you win, with cyberwarfare disinformation campaigns, like 2016. Also, our valuable "trade and diplomatic contacts" in Europe depend on their security, which Russia threatens. If it wins in the Ukraine is next. Latvia and Estonia after that. And there goes a stable European market, which our capitalism depends on greatly. Putin, like Trump and MAGA, is a sociopathic megalomaniac. He, like Trump, will not stop. And they will use fear and force to exert ehir will. That's why Trump is like Putin and the N. Korean dictator's at heart. They are all right-wing military dictators. Trump just needs to be installed by MAGA, because democracy will not do it for him, unless MAGA can cripple it.

[@jon6614ababababa]

There is always a global guarantor of security in history. It's us today, Britain before, the dutch before that and so forth. Everytime an empire falls there is a scramble to fill the power vacuum. If we withdraw to an isolationist position we will find that other interests counter to our own will fill it. I.E we left Afghanistan and the Taliban took over. The same people that enables 9/11. This doesn't just effect us, but other countries. As Peter's videos have shown, the Russians are in a predicament with Armenia now because they can not secure the area. Now Turkey and Azerbaijan are taking over.

[@jon6614ababababa]

​@@DivadNoodeldehm-lz2gmit was also well understood during our founding that national defense was a necessary function of the federal government. Without an IC and military you would quickly find yourself under the oppression of another government, and well... you wouldn't be very free then.

[@OldWestGunslinger-vs9mx]

​@DivadNoodeldehm-lz2gm The US could get along fine with just a Navy, Air Force, & Marine Corps (all at half the size) just to defend our waters & air space. If we were to keep active Army troops, they could be stationed at the border.

[@Odin029]

I think the first thing that's going to happen is that 'Flags of Convenience' are going to become a thing of the past. Pirates or even countries are probably going to think twice about messing with a commercial ship flying flags from countries that can reach out and touch them, but nobody's going to worry about the fury of Liberia or Panama.

[@alexven92]

Nice, I never knew that was a thing. I can imagine that's one factor on why shipping will become more expensive other than the insurances.

[@deja699]

Panama can withhold access through it's Canal, so Panama is a thing.

[@vaakdemandante8772]

@@deja699 withhold access for whom, the pirates? Weird argument.

[@JWQweqOPDH]

@@deja699 I doubt pirates need access to the canal.

[@billobrien4680]

If 'Flags of Convenience' go the way of the Dodo, shipping costs will rise appreciably (piracy aside). Ships are registered in those 10 or so countries to avoid adhering to stringent regulation and paying taxes, as well as having a tremendous amount of opacity.

[@haniamritdas4725]

Nations full of card houses built on just in time supply chains. What could go wrong?

[@alansnyder8448]

In Peter's "Accidental Superpower" book he predicted 3 wars that will lead to the end of globalization. #1) Ukraine-Russia is already in full force. #2) "The Next Gulf War", seems to be on the field and warming up for kick-off. So that still leaves #3) The Tanker War (in the south china sea) We here should start a betting pool on when #3 kicks off. I'll start. One year from today. Oct. 2024. :)

[@BountyFlamor]

what's the tanker war about?

[@utahcornelius9704]

Because war is just a betting game? Should we be betting over Israel-Hamas, too? Sorry, discussing Peter's predictions is one thing. Betting on war is a whole other moral universe.

[@MarcIverson]

@@utahcornelius9704 Economies, private industry, think tanks, and nation-states do it all the time. They must.

[@asterixdogmatix1073]

@@BountyFlamor Most of China's oil comes via tankers from the Persian gulf and through the South China Sea. China knows that. Cut that supply, or even restrict it and its collapse of China as a state or war to secure the supply. You know which option the Chinese will choose.

[@iartol]

I will keep the Tanker War start date prediction in mind. I hope it doesn't start too far before that

[@danielforrest2952]

An MEU might be small compared to the Nimitz class and it’s fleet but it’s comparable to every over navy’s carrier fleet except for France and the Uk.

[@stevecooper7883]

The UK still has quite the navy despite its demilitarized focus for the past 50 years. We'll see if they try to build it up more now or if they cut corners in the defense budget any further.

[@radiodare]

It's also an opportunity for some of our allies to start contributing to their navies in a meaningful way 🤞

[@billchepil5933]

Just too many free loaders in the western world

[@looseycanon]

Which would get them booted from the alliance... US hegemony over seas is the reason, why no country got booted from NATO so far. Create a navy, that could rivel the US Navy and you've turned from ally to threat.

[@nicholassmith7984]

Most of the US's allies don't have navies capable of operating too far from their own shores, or the capacity to build ships capable of doing so, or the resources to crew them if they did. Even if they started now, it would take them decades to get to that point at the earliest; most could never even if they tried.

[@jsb1585]

@@looseycanon As far as I can tell (being British) the American argument is for Europe to take ownership of their defence needs so Uncle Sam can pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, that doesn't necessarily mean becoming a strategic rival. A more capable and self reliant Europe is an asset to the United States, I would argue.

[@bcluett1697]

@@looseycanon So many people fail to understand that. The US policy after world war two was literally get everyone to demilitarize so you could at least see an escalation coming a mile away. If everyone has a projectionable fleet there would be wars all the damn time like before world war one.

[@chrisfelouzis7195]

I assume we will still use our Navy to protect our nations international shipping interests as well as our strategic allies?

[@rh906]

If they are owned by patrons of the politicians, sure. If not, good luck. The Navy will come look at your remains when they come close enough to inspect.

[@dtsai]

Don’t worry. China will protect your goods and ships.

[@dananorth895]

OF course, but any malcontents or aggressors will be on their own. There is method to the madness.

[@timrobertson8436]

All predictions are based on an "all else being equal" scenario, but everything else never remains equal to the present, so these predictions are based on linear thinking and thus inherently speculative, not based on a constantly shifting status quo where nothing is equal for long

[@misterlunity9649]

The dude truly lives in nature and good informations

[@danharold3087]

The Colorado Rockies are beautiful.

[@NateWoodbury]

I'm new to your channel, and over the last month have enjoyed several of your episodes. I enjoy learning about geopolitics, but have never found a source that delivered it without bias or an agenda. Thanks for your content. I'm learning a lot.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

You have to buy one of his books. They are easy reads, but they give a basis for an awful lot of what we see going on.

[@NateWoodbury]

@@christianlibertarian5488 Awesome. Thanks!

[@paul_GriyaLestari]

Unbiassed? 🤣.... You won't have to listen for much longer till you work out who Peter is working for

[@NateWoodbury]

@@paul_GriyaLestari Ok, who is that? And you obviously watch his videos.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

Ewww! Please tell us, who is Peter working for? The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy? The Illuminati? The Masons? No, it must be the Rothchild's! @@paul_GriyaLestari

[@brianb.7435]

The deployment of the global fleet was not benevolent. It was strategic, we eplaced England as worlds super power. It enabled us to protect our industrial giants to profitably exploit resources wherever they existed and also protected our strategic military presence, including our acquired lands, Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, Virgin Islands, Panama Canal, etc. Others benefited as well, but it was mostly self interest. Nothing wrong with that, but to say we were doing this out of love and freedom, not. Also the recent removal of assets from the Gulf was a signal to Saudi Arabia to toe the line or we won't protect you from Iran. Most of your videos are spot on, love it.

[@JJFrance]

I think Z kind of made that clear...the US provided security in return for allies stepping up against the Soviet Union.

[@MrRMB1]

Excellent and easy to understand information. Thanks again Peter! Appreciate these videos

[@kevinfreer780]

Thanks Peter, very interesting analysis.

[@TheRealBozz]

What do you bet military spending actually increases?

[@marcusluciani1620]

Everything I own

[@singerap]

And a very happy Monday morning to you ... Interesting times indeed!

[@johnlacey3857]

Peter you’re always so full of happiness and joy!!

[@richardgilman4602]

Peter, kudos for your timely commentary. Apparently Ukraine has read Mahan and has blockaded shipping from Russias only warm water port at Rostov-on-Don. No need for the US Navy to do that task in the Mediterranean. Moreover between US Marine Expeditionary Unit in the Gulf of Oman and Ukraine's blockade of Rostov-on-Don, the PRC ain't gonna get enough oil--particularly if it intends to fuel an invasion of the Republic of China. And, Saudi Arabia and the former Trucial states are more securely tethered to US wishes.

[@darthmortus5702]

Where did you hear this? Ukraine had a few laudable successes damaging ships and the Kerch Strait Bridge but certainly nothing approaching being able to blockade Russia in the Black Sea so I am curious to see the source.

[@utahcornelius9704]

No doubt MAGA congresscritters will try to block Ukraine's ongoing success so they can receive foreign Russian ctbercrime support in the 2024 election.

[@White_Rich_and_Good_Looking]

Ukraine is a borderline failed state now with an economy based almost entirely on aid from the U.S. and the EU. This aid is quickly drying up, which will force Ukraine to eventually sue for peace.

[@orboakin8074]

Ngl, as a Nigerian this prospect scares me. The maon reason global trade and stability has existed was because of the USA. I really hope they maintain some global presence or that other similarly aligned powers step in.

[@rh906]

The world bitches when we act like a Great Power and the world whines when we either don't want to be it or can't.

[@Pause_café_Avec_Dr_Djon]

Well the US navy maritime order is a new concept (less than 50 years ). Globalization existed before and will continue to exist after. The Industrial Revolution was under the British maritime order and before that we had other European countries from the Mediterranean Sea. So let’s not be too dramatic. We will be fine .

[@orboakin8074]

@@Pause_café_Avec_Dr_Djon Amen, friend. I hope so.

[@moosefootloose]

@@rh906mouthpieces who hate not profiting off American empire (like Ian miles dong) complain, they don’t give a shit about the person on the ground who enjoyed the superpowered peace.

[@orboakin8074]

@@rh906 the majority of the whining comes from mainly countries that are not western aligned or of much global consequence, even here in Africa. You'd be surprised how many of our countries here actually prefer the western-led (mainly US) global order.

[@ivantigaisha]

Peter, love you work. Is it possible to have a video pointing out at least 1 positive current global event you have noticed? Cheers

[@oliviamiller9267]

Peter, I love quoting you and sending links to your podcasts. People think I’m smart.

[@davemehelas5053]

The intersection of geography, geopolitics and economics-Peter at him best.

[@arminiuschatti2287]

Thank you Peter for being a candle in a dark World.

[@MoProf]

This week's Economist has an interesting article on the geopolitical analyst profession. It would be interesting to hear your take on it.

[@swampkatbrain]

Sounds tasty, got the sauce?

[@swampkatbrain]

Nevermind found it I think. Is it called, Inside the secretive business of geopolitical advice online? (And apparently, The world on a string, in the paper edition..?)

[@hankhillsnrrwurethra]

tl;dr The Economist railing against what Peter says but admitting it's here. And backing Peter's assertion that 'you're all gonna be sorry when globalization is over'. "The Rise of Homeland Economics"

[@alexinness]

The North American labor part is right on. I've never seen a better time to get a job, or upgrade the job you have.

[@thomas735]

And it’ll last for 15-20 more years too

[@danharold3087]

@@thomas735 Maybe. We will see many jobs replaced by teachable humanoid robots in the coming years. With luck the displaced workers will get picked up by new firms using mostly robot labor. This could be a very good thing. US manufacturing will be more competitive.

[@thomas735]

@@danharold3087 idk, robots seem to have hit a plateau. Sure it will happen at some point, but idk.

[@lightningwight4154]

@@thomas735 Robots are not reliable within the forseeable future. You have had to deal with automated customer service bots? Those things are a fucking nightmare and useless. For something complicated like driving an 18-wheeler or building a website, thats not happening for awhile now, if ever

[@thomas735]

@@lightningwight4154 I actually think for delivery drivers and truck drivers it is

[@HarvestPointFarms-s8e]

This is the most leasr optimistic assessment I've heard in a while.

[@dpdystro2227]

This is why I watch Zeihan

[@louisgiokas2206]

Peter's description of US action after WWII in setting up the security order is correct but lacks some context. Don't forget that the US has always been wary of foreign wars (seems hard to believe now). From the Monroe Doctrine to the isolationism prior to both world wars, the attitude of the US populace has been decidedly against intervention. Until the aftermath of WWII, the US was also protectionist, as was most of the world. This helps explain both what Peter points out today with trade generally, and with support for Ukraine for example.

[@vaakdemandante8772]

What the populace wants is largely irrelevant - it's the business interests that matter most. If they populace does not want a war you just manufacture consent - there was a book about it but I've may have forgotten the title ;)

[@ragnardanneskajold1880]

The American people at large abhors foreign entanglements, but the American government and corporate power structure absolutely loves war.

[@louisgiokas2206]

@@vaakdemandante8772 Well, I think you overplay the power of business interests. Actually, for most of business, war is not good for business. Also, there is not a real separation between business and the populace. If you hadn't noticed, most people work (in a business) for their living. As for there being a book about it, I can't believe you would base your opinions on a book. For just about any issue, you can find "a" book on all three sides of the issue.

[@utahcornelius9704]

@@louisgiokas2206 War profiteers, for just one example, often put their thumb on the scale for conflict.

[@louisgiokas2206]

@@utahcornelius9704 War profiteers make their money when the war breaks out. If you look at the US before WWI and WWII, they must have had very light thumbs.

[@davidmurphy8364]

You always cheer me up Pete😂

[@DK-ev9dg]

He is a clown. I also cheer up when I see a clown in front of me.

[@smithb0134]

In addition to the Marines, MEUs also have at least one Seal Team. The Gerald Ford going to the Middle East right now probably has multiple Seal teams considering the likelihood of American hostages in Gaza.

[@broadpalette]

Where was the Ford stationed? Bahrain?

[@stevenalvarado-doc7334]

Naah, the SEAL teams were already in the area. Probably in Israel itself.

[@tamerawad4854]

Thank you for being impartial and fair when discussing the Israeli and Plastinian conflict. It is much easier to take the popular view so I pay respect to you

[@utahcornelius9704]

Exactly. Both sides have transgressed. Israel, for example, ceded the Gaza strip to the Palestininans decades ago. It has spent much of that time making incursions and building developments, against that agreement, especially, under right-wing leaders like Netanyahu, who have no interest in international cooperation. Hamas, on the other side, has also been an aggressor at times.

[@markbenke5614]

It's October 10th in the year of our Lord 2023... I'm not seeing a Zeihan update... I start EVERY weekday with Zeihan's update. except today.... existential crisis? ;-) not entirely but I'm disappointed... He better be going somewhere fun...

[@Someone-tn8ur]

Peter talks about deglobilization but when I look at trade stats with China, US imports are down less than 10% from 2019, the year before the pandemic. This doesn't seem like a lot. I wonder if Peter could address this.

[@utahcornelius9704]

And they still have some pandemic lockdown lag. Once their supply chains are fully opened up? I don't know. I think there's some lag time ahead on de-globalization. Re-industrilization in NAFTA is going to take time, and American consumers (and capitalists) won.t put up with much in the way of interruption in the flow of goods, unless, of course, it means they have to work crappy jobs for crappy pay.

[@jeremiah1059]

Another great explanation.

[@williamhocter4658]

Peter-I’d like to hear your thoughts on to what extent, if any, drone technology could substitute for naval power in protecting global trade. Thanks.

[@jamesparker1071]

Satellites and DEW's can destroy a fleet simultaneously in seconds.

[@jhrusa8125]

It still comes down to the same thing, money.

[@williamhocter4658]

My own sense is that it would work better against piracy than nation states. Drones are cheaper than frigates.

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

​@@jamesparker1071You sure like to lie.

[@atanumaulik7093]

Drones are very good in destroying. Protecting ? Not so much.

[@MediaWhored]

Morning Peter. Love the content and history lessons. But really like the view. Lots of good times in Colorado (Breck and Fairplay) and still own a little chunk of Alma. Its one of the few places I leave S Florida for...Have a great day buddy

[@blakedott9295]

Background looking particularly nice today

[@tjidsgerwierda1532]

How possible is it that the US government is no longer willing to indirectly protect supply chains of companies who are not collaborating in sharing the cost, i.e. evading taxes?

[@careylymanjones]

The question is why they EVER protected such supply chains. The answer is graft.

[@peterb9038]

Could be a lot of container ships changing their flag if the US Navy are selecting who to protect. Marine insurance is unlikely to cover anyone else once the highseas becoming the hunting ground for privateers again. I did think the US get more out of their presence in the world's Oceans than they expend, just through trade volumes as well as the $US being the currency of exchange for international trade?

[@george2113]

The best part is that foreign goods will Increase in price as shipping becomes more expensive and the US won't have to change tariffs

[@dw620]

The pirates never went away.

[@AFuller2020]

And most of the ships are registered with Liberia and Panama, not the US.

[@danharold3087]

This is open to debate.. Many inside the US disagree. If it is so lucrative lets let others give it a try. The WRC is a status that has been conferred on the US dollar by the international community over time. This is due to a number of factors, including the size and strength of the US economy, the depth and liquidity of the US financial markets, the widespread use of the US dollar in international finance, and the stability of the US political system. WRC status can be revoked at any time if people simply stop using it. I don't see where the US Navy has anything to do with it.

[@Fantabiscuit]

Foreign shipping companies won’t use water cannons guys. They will shoot to kill and move on. No humane standards and social media to criticise

[@Seriouspatt]

Wow that makes LOTS of sense. That means it really was unsustainable to produce goods far away from where they're going to be used. I consider that good news in many ways.

[@austinduke8876]

It's good news for some and horrible for others. North and South America will likely been alright but there is gonna be a lot of pain in Asia

[@careylymanjones]

​@@austinduke8876 Considering the pain that Asia has caused American workers, I'm not terribly sympathetic.

[@romanking1202]

Peter Ziehan teleportation powers confirmed !

[@tonyoostendarp7611]

I have said this before : If It wasn't for the Americans, I would not be sitting here, reading comments on Peters blogs. Long live the Americans. Amen

[@r.r.r.918]

I really like Peter Zaihan as far as logic and general conclusions, but I do feel that he has a tendency to be hyperbolic in nature. He makes statements which I believe would be better suited with higher precision of language. Is it really true that all of East Asia would be facing some type of problem if shipping rates increased? Likely Japan and South Korea would face no real issues as most of their export to the global market is high value add.

[@utahcornelius9704]

And the fact is, are our capitalists really going to turn away from cheap labor and vast markets so quickly? Can they generate the constant growth they depend on by shrinking their market to Canada, the U.S., and Mexico? I don't get the calculus.

[@wyskass861]

I've been hearing Peter say this for a while. but I'm not clear on what factors caused this shift, nor any specific events or decisions noted to signify this shift. Why would the US decide global maritime security is no longer in their interest? I can't remember any public conversation about these decisions or directions. Can someone clarify the history of these changes?

[@jbartosch8233]

You can look for Peters videos on why. Short answer, no reason for US since USSR collapse. The patrolling of the oceans was a defense related component not an economic component. US doesn't need world trade just security from USSR which collapsed. The World needs US but We The People are not interested in being the Police. So it could get heated out there for the rest of the World but We don't care.

[@robervalhaha]

Population problems and difficulties to recruit new soldiers to maintain all its forces.

[@wyskass861]

@@robervalhaha Well according to different reports I've seen active duty combined military numbers have been pretty consistent over the last 20+ years. Navy has been mid 300k for 20 years and rising. Now compared to pre 1995 it is much lower due to Cold War end not recruitment, and the change was supposed to be happening over last 10 years after GWOT. So that doesn't make much sense. The military always complains about low recruitment, but the numbers don't support it. Plus, this was supposed to be a strategic choice not lack of capability.

[@Heegooat]

The USA can no longer afford the navy and so can no longer afford the empire.

[@JJthename55]

With everything going on...we get this?!

[@GalactusOG]

Ezekiel 25:17. "The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the Inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in The name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of Darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost Children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious Anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know My name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee." ⚔✝☦

[@jeffbarta6276]

thanks Peter have a good day.

[@Checklist_STT]

Whole lotta scores being settled these days.

[@gerardmonsen1267]

Hi, Peter! I like this take better than some previous takes where you said the US Navy was built wrong - that you need lots of destroyers to patrol the oceans and protect shipping from pirates rather than supercarrier fleets. This old analysis was off on two fronts: 1) Allies can provide smaller ships to protect sea lanes from smaller pirate groups. 2) The best way to stop piracy is not at sea but to attack their home bases and make sure they never have a safe harbor. See: how the Romans dealt with their piracy problems or the US dealt with the Tripoli pirates. That's where those supercarrier task forces come in to play - discouraging countries from setting up their own piracy operations.

[@everydayjoe7786]

Hello Peter, and thank you for another great and informative video. At the risk of turning this into a prepper diskussion. 🤨 God help us all. Do you have any insights or thought on what, if anything, normal people can do to lessen the impact of the coming crisis on an personal level? Things like acquiring wealth (saving), stockpiling goods, learning new skills or trades etc. or are we just ****ed?

[@user-microburst]

If u in the US, you good!

[@michaelt1775]

Toilet paper. Invest in vast quantities of that name brand soft ass paper.

[@CESmith]

Yep, USA relatively good. Just be careful with how much your investments are exposed to globalization continuing.

[@jonahbert111]

US good? Well, that may depend on Mother Nature.

[@everydayjoe7786]

So probably should have included this in my original question but i'm born and raised, and living in Sweden.

[@sashaoblak]

Love the video. This video speaks to one of the most important issues of the world, and so few people are aware. Given the importance of this subject matter, I'd have to rank this video as your best video thus far because it literally affects everybody. We'll, I guess Americans are not affected for the reasons you stated. Great video.

[@jiiig8667]

Man! Zeihan really hikes around fast. Couple days ago he was in Texas now Colorado.. 😂❤

[@thebeautifulones5436]

The US won't give up on naval supremecy lightly. The nation with the global currency and all the benefits that entails always has the primary navy.

[@bonanzatime]

Good Point

[@rh906]

We will see how long that remains the global currency. Just because everything else is crap doesn't mean it will stay that way if enough countries focus on it. Doesn't help that the US has weak leadership either, otherwise the US could just suffer and bounce right back ready to dominate again German style.

[@bcluett1697]

It's not the supremacy part as much as the projection of force where it's readily available. The Democrats think defunding the military is important and that includes the Navy. Representatives from the Republican side also have used the talking point that they should be paid to deploy and allies pick up the slack so that's the issue. Both sides seem to want to hand control over to the foreigners. The US has been building this freedom of navigation system since before the world wars and now a power vacuum arises.

[@jhrusa8125]

But we're doing it right now. I don't know what you're talking about.

[@fguocokgyloeu4817]

​@@bcluett1697Stop making shit up. Defense spending is widely supported and many of the biggest shipyards are in blue states.

[@helipilotEGLW]

Brit here, don't worry people, the Royal Navy will sort this 👌 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@alexbakker8785]

Lol. :)

[@vDaniik]

If The big navies from Europe chased a similar goal and could unite, we wouldn't want anybody else. But the big boys (Mainly UK France and Germany) have to integrate interests

[@leithblower]

​@@vDaniikDifferent objectives, will never work.

[@xgford94]

Is that the underlying truth of AUKUS? 😂😂🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸

[@aquariumengineer]

That’s cute

[@taly4life]

Someone keep a bulletin board of all his predictions for accuracy’s sake

[@StarboyXL9]

Based

[@kkostadinof]

He is pulling his predictions out of his ass most of the time. The end.

[@Swenthorian]

Your background is so beautiful. I wish I were there.

[@okharren]

Lol, whenever I need cheering up I watch one of Peter’s videos

[@PvtDancerCologne]

Dear Peter, I really like your videos and watch them almost daily. As a German, I have wonder about your predictions of oblivion about our economy, because they never come true. Remember your statement with the last last BMW?! Yeah, new version will be out soon. No end of production in sight. Economy going down half a point is not 'Oblivion', you know. Did you consider, that we are hard working but also flexible and ? It's not all thanks to your GODLIKE U, S of A, you know? Part of it was, but there is much more to our economical success. You seem to be constantly underestimating us. That makes me wonder about your other predictions like about China. Just because something SOUNDS logical, doesn't mean it comes true. So many other factors and possibilities. Just a thought...

[@Wusten88]

Things in a macro scale can take a long time to happen. There's a old saying "every fool is right in the short term". The collapse start in 2025.

[@a.v.5078]

What he meant is this. Within 10 years you will be fighting a civil war with your new fellow citizens...

[@PvtDancerCologne]

@Gimil38 nobody claimed that the Germans did it on their own. Please read and try to understand before answering. Also, a historic debate was not the point of my comment. Don't say we, if you are talking about people other than you, that did something in the past. You probably did very little back then. This was about Zeihans predictions right here, right now.

[@PvtDancerCologne]

@@a.v.5078 No, he clearly didn't mean that. Totally different problem.

[@PvtDancerCologne]

@Wusten88 please understand the reference to the BMW, for which Zeihan predicted production to cease already because of the lack of natural gas. Didn't happen. Still producing and it's very sure, that it will continue for the foreseable future. So this was wrong, and I stay unconvinced that the other Doomsday predictions will come true, as none of them ever did. I still like his content and I agree with most of his logic, but I think his predictions sometimes very exaggerated. I can't talk of most other nations, but for Germany, his insights aren't that spot on. Just a different take. You really don't have to agree.

[@whysoserious8666]

Doesn’t the recent increase in range of anti ship missiles have something to do with carriers staying out of the Gulf?

[@benhardsatrio8222]

Back in mid-2010s Iran through their Houthi allies had 5 opportunities to sink an Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyer with anti ship missiles, which they took. No hits, all missiles fired on those 5 occasions were either intercepted or decoyed successfully. On the 5th attempt the Houthis even fired 4 anti-ship missiles to try and swarm the Burke. No dice. I don’t see any reason why the CSG can’t defend itself properly in the Gulf.

[@ColinTherac117]

We also used to think the Iron Dome was invincible. 5000 rockets per ship is still cheaper than the ship. Saturation fire works. @@benhardsatrio8222

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@benhardsatrio8222 In case you haven't noticed, technology has changed since then. Look at how fairly primitive missiles sunk the Mosvka and have driven the Black Sea fleet out of Sevastopol. The Iranians are more than capable of sinking an aircraft carrier that comes too close. And that's if their new Russian allies didn't give them modern weapons. After all the US armaments for Ukraine, the Russians wouldn't seem to have any reason not to help Iran drive American carriers out of the Middle East in a hot war.

[@klaasvakie]

You've nailed it! The US has come to the realisation that it's naval presence I no longer the deterrent it was once!!! Those Kinzals are a scary prospect.😉

[@benhardsatrio8222]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Moskva vs Neptune and AEGIS-equipped Burke vs C-802-type isn’t really a fair comparison. Moskva has the ability to provide air defense ON PAPER. Their sinking by Ukrainian Neptunes, which theoretically shouldn’t have happened in the first place given what is known of Moskva’s systems, revealed that the crews were not trained and prepared on that fateful day. Burkes with their AEGIS system is not only more capable, the USN crews were also better trained and prepared. USN and JMSDF, the two big users of the AEGIS system, train the hell out of their crews, and it shows during that mid-2010 engagement.

[@trollol_]

How is it possible for one man to cover so much information and topics day after day after day and not lose credibility. You post your videos on here all the time, jumping from one thing to the next, and come across as the expert, yet it seems unlikely dare impossible given the scope of your content. How is this possible?

[@utahcornelius9704]

He is a firehose of information on a wide range of topics, but his analysis and assessments and predictions are not always on target; mostly, but not always. Still, he is worth listening to every single day. He just knows so much more about geography, peoples, the location of resources and value-adding capibilities around the globe, political actions and implications, military actions and implications, etc. Where else can you go? And with so many moving parts, how can anyone get all of the assessments and predictions right?

[@nomadtv6009]

He has a team and infrastructure behind him. Used to be a head anaylast at stratfor. He doesn't just come up with this on the top of his head while. Hiking.. He gets briefings and has the experience and expertise to speak from knowledge.

[@halojones1843]

Really beautiful backdrop, Peter.

[@krupalsinh12]

Ah yes the pretty mountain man is back. Nice to hear from you friend :)

[@Reinwolf23]

I think the most meaningful takeaway here is that Russia and their war in Ukraine is, in fact, rude.

[@utahcornelius9704]

To put it incredibly delicately.

[@Thats_my_Point]

I think it's worth considering the amount of technological advances in weaponry electronic warfare that the modern US military now carries. I do believe those assets are force multipliers which would necessitate far fewer "boots on the ground" in order to establish the same effective fighting force quotient.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

These were my thoughts until the Russo/Ukraine War. Now I'm in for a re-think. The easy destruction of offensive weapons suggest that *more* boots on the ground are necessary for enforcing "the System".

[@somedandy7694]

@@okalov Then demographic Winter enters China's chat.

[@warpig-z2h]

For the record, MEU (Marine Expeditionary Unit) is pronounced "Mew" vice "Em Ee You"

[@dansullivan6481]

Love storytime with Peter 🎉 Keep it coming my friend 😎

[@Mako2-1]

with 11 supercarriers and 9 light carriers (for now), I can't say I'm worried at all... The light carriers are extremely formidable. 6-8 fifth gen F-35's are certainly nothing to sneeze at. Just 1 F-35 can easily handle about 6 iranian aircraft thrown its way.... Iran can really only muster about 70 f-14's and mig 29's at the moment both of which are incredibly vulnerable to an f-35...

[@wheels-n-tires1846]

Only problem is that without organic tanking or AEW, and with short legged F-35s, they definitely should NOT be thought of as a CVBG. Yes, the planes themselves are superior to Iranian jets for instance, but the "Lightning Carriers" in reality dont have much actual capability except maybe for some CAS against a third world entity...

[@raresuta5895]

I really don't understand how you can say that the US is withrawing from the global economy and becoming more isolationist when they are constantly creating more and more military bases around the world and investing more and more money in those bases. I live in Romania where in the last few years the Americans have built up around my hometown military airports (plurar), massive headquarters, weapons and pharmaceutical deposits and all kinds of other defensive structures. It doesn't seem to me that they are planning to leave soon

[@topsuperseven7910]

You don't understand how the US could be reducing itself as global trade police because in your 0.03% of the earth they're building a lot of defensive structure. Really? So it doesn't make sense to you? You're sure you've found a contradiction? wowww. just 'wow' to this. :( sad faces.

[@lurkingturkey7882]

Zeihan seems to suggests the americans are going to be increasingly more selective about which shipping lanes their navy (and other forces) provide security for and in what strength

[@guncoservicesllc6921]

He’s just talking about using the US Navy to protect sea trade as a courtesy to the world is pulling back. US presences in places is not pulling back. The US is always willing to talk with potential new allies. It actually makes a lot of sense too if you consider “re-shoring” industries back to the US is a goal. Marine insurance is the Achilles heel of ocean trade and can easily make the entire thing cost prohibitive.

[@wantanamera]

Just because the US is withdrawing from the global economy doesn't mean that they're gonna just withdraw all troops and assets. I'm pretty sure that the US despite their isolationism still wants to maintain the ability to rapidly respond to any aggression from rival countries. They're just going to be a lot more selective in where and when they respond.

[@HumanityKilledArt]

those bases are for in case a war with russia pops up, the front will be romania and poland

[@ralphhardie7492]

Awesome thanks 😅 Gosh And great book.. excellent and entertaining... Probably not the correct word 😅

[@thehottubman1893]

As a Canadian, can you please speak on the current Indian, Canadian issues. I would love an outside perspective, Many thanks!

[@yackspoetic]

Zeihan sounds and speaks exactly like Jon Hamm.

[@andrewhatcher8936]

Maybe the US is pulling back its navy to an extend, but it still has vital assets it needs to protect abroad, such as vital parts of its ICBM missile defence shield in Europe (Fylingdales in North Yorkshire, UK).

[@jaredcrenshaw7665]

That this is even part of the conversation is beyond insane.

[@zoomzoom3950]

protecting Europe is just another waste on a long list of waste, of American tax dollars; but it works great for our ruling elites to launder our tax dollars

[@jayshartzer844]

That's a lot different than protecting randos sailing around the horn of Africa

[@michaelpettersson4919]

A slight withdrawal could be seen as a hint to allies to do their part of protecting the seas. There are no excuses, everyone can do something even if it is just shooing away pirates from merchant vessels

[@bigbubba4314]

The US Navy isn’t pulling back. It’s mission is changing. He is stating that providing global maritime security isn’t the goal of the US government anymore. Helping our allies, and securing US interests is still part of the navy’s mission.

[@mikehammer4018]

I wonder if the US Navy is going to end up going to a "subscription model" scheme. If your ship is flagged with a US ally we'll come steaming to help, if it's an enemy, we'll sit back and get the popcorn machines going. It's not necessarily the world I want to live in, but it may be the one we end up with. If this becomes a thing, the Straits of Malaca might well become too dangerous to navigate without anti-piracy convoys; which in turn makes for a much more tempting target in the event of a war between major powers; because frigates and corvettes may be sudden death to pirates, but they'd be barely a speedbump to a great power navy.

[@googacct]

I was thinking the same thing. The extra expense of a US flag and cheaper insurance may be a better deal than higher insurance and flagging your ship with some country that has little more than a couple of rowboats for protection.

[@careylymanjones]

Mahan is not mocked. You wanna be a Great Power, you need a Great Power Navy.

[@mikehammer4018]

@@careylymanjones Yep, and lots of 'roided up cabin cruisers ain't gonna cut it!

[@andreravenna4435]

Will we see a massive upswing in piracy and might there be room for PMC navys? Private escorts in shipform

[@keitholsen3109]

Peter, just so you know, I tried posting your video to Facebook and they took it down! It violated their "Community Standards". I am a subscriber and really enjoy your take on things.

[@opensprings]

Is Peter's videos (meaning his work) is barred from Facebook?

[@keitholsen3109]

@@opensprings It was the only thing I posted and they took it down.

[@truckinconvoy7312]

Peter has hiked his way into a windows screensaver

[@kortyEdna825]

High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.

[@shannonsally455]

It's recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.

[@Pamela.jess.245]

Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.

[@Pamela.jess.245]

My Financial adviser is ‘’JULIE ANNE HOOVER’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market

[@thegoldensnitch6312]

How can i invest?

[@LaMulaMotovlog]

Exactly the same situation

[@XYZ56771]

Even though its bad news for us non-americans, love the way you synthesise everything. Thank you!

[@ravishingravi]

Its not bad news. At all.

[@veritaspk]

@@ravishingravi Then wait until piracy spreads to all waters from which the US Navy withdraws. the navies of the local powers will be engaged in hostilities among themselves...no one will protect trade. Great news indeed.

[@francus7227]

​@@ravishingravi Peter draws the most trolls, nay sayers, bots and flies. Shooo fly.

[@francus7227]

@Gimil38 Yeah sure. You justify why it's not bad news..... I'm not playing with toothless bot.

[@ravishingravi]

@@francus7227 Aww. We have someone who wants to feel important. Go back to playing with mommy. Geo politics and economics is not for you.

[@anthonyyoung6489]

Yeah you’re wrong. Tell that to us stationed in the Philippines. Or Guam. Or Japan. Or South Korea.

[@JackHawkinswrites]

LOL. Been there, done that. You’re the last to know, yours is not to reason why, yours is but to do or die. Ill equipped for the task at hand, but sent into the breech, regardless. A tripwire, designed to be broken…. Enjoy

[@george2113]

After China crashes and burns, Japan and Philippines should be able to fend off pirates

[@jeffzaun1841]

Navy guy here. I disagree with the premise that the USN ALWAYS had a carrier in the Arabian Gulf. Until Desert Storm we never put a carrier there. Afterward we kept one there a lot of the time but the need faded after the 2003-2011 (?) Iraq war. . The Gulf is a lousy location for our big boats. I been there done that. Stand-off range is even more appropriate lately as weapons & sensor ranges stretch. You may be correct about US naval and economic retrenchment. We haven’t had a free trade, freedom pushing President since 2008. I disagree, however, with your saying the lack of a carrier inside the Gulf means we’re less present, less able to protect. . Partly we’ve reverted to normal (pre-1990). Partly we’ve decided to be sensible. With drones, mines & more missiles, better to keep the big boats at stand off range.

[@KnowledgeNerd123]

I'm going to use that as an insult, "Your supply chain is gangly, get your shit together."

[@jonathandewberry289]

I can also see this being the way of things. In some time, Japan is going to be expected to do some of the heavy threatening and lifting in East Asia and India might have to start patrolling waters. To whatever degrees is yet to be seen but the USA and that really means the "Allies" the EU, the UK and Canada and Australia etc will be far more concerned with enforcing their parts of the world and their shipping lanes. Yes, it may be that if Iran confiscates a Chinese oil tanker then that's up to China now. Maybe they confiscate a lot of oil tankers from many others and that's their problems. North America is going to need to consider 'onshoring' from now onward. Since i keep hearing about global unity and the love of multiculturalism then the 'CANZUK" ought to return and start yesterday. (return because it actually was a free union not long ago)

[@Obsidian-Nebula]

Or maybe we could just confiscate those tankers back? Who's gonna stop us ?

[@jonathandewberry289]

@@Obsidian-Nebula It may start depending a lot on "whos we?" and who's going to stop them. It might be China PRC has to decide if they'd drive over and have a military standoff with Iran. Who knows? Maybe the PLA sinks a few Iranian ships and a few hostages later, Iran releases their oil tankers and doesn't try it again for the next few years.

[@m.andrewdocumentary]

If you look at the most recent indo pacific strategy put out by the White House, you’ll notice it sort of reads as though he quad are going to be responsible got policing their respective spheres. The document sort of uses the euphemism of “leaderships” but reading between the lines it’s not a stretch to see how it could mean policing your own backyard