Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

[@florencesinyei6489]

Thanks Mr. Andy this shall help my students lots.

[@penguinaxe01]

Mr Andy is great I’m telling you

[@shaziasaleem8958]

Thanks my G helped alot

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

Glad I could help

[@madarauchiha8917]

Thanks helped a lot

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

My pleasure, i'm glad it helped feel free to give suggestions for future videos if there is a topic you are stuck on.

[@emilyross7148]

Thank you Mr. Andy, it helps a lot. Question though, why there is a natural decrease in stage 5? If the stage 5 is post industrialized era, then population size should remain constant, if not increasing/decreasing. With the better health care and technological advancement, people would have better life span. Just wondering! Overall, it was very helpful, and appreciate you for explaining better. 🙏

[@andypeterson7180]

good question. There are many reasons the combine to cause the birth rate to all. 1.In the post industrialised era women play a more prominent role in the economy and focus on their careers rather than building families. This reduces the fertility rate and birth rate. A good example of this is Japan and China they are experiencing this change. 2. Raising children becomes more expensive so parents choose to have fewer children. 3. Cultural norms change and having smaller families becomes the new norm. 4. There is less of a need to have children. In less developed countries children are needed to provide care and financial help to parents when they get older. The more children you have the more support you can have in your old age. In developed countries the government and pension plans will support elderly people and therefore less children are needed.

[@Jackil2307]

Thanks alot♥️

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

My pleasure, always happy to help

[@swathi9615]

Could you please mention the countries in each stage?

[@cassandrajohn7480]

Hi. This explanation help me a lot. But may I know which stage has the highest natural increase? And which stage does natural decrease occur?

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

Stage 2 has the greatest increase because there is a large gap between BR and DR. Stage 5 we see a natural decrease as BR drops slightly lower than DR.

[@airzahirakhan1143]

Sir? since it's COVID time' and death rate is so much higher than the birth rates So are we seing Stage 5th going on? Love it from INDIA 🇮🇳

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

Short answer is no. Covid is an unforeseen event that will have short to medium term effects but in the long run a new normal will be established, the best example of this is the Spanish Flu. Additionally, like nearly all econonic and demographic models they are very simple and therefore only provide us with a basic guide rather than a tool to accurately predict the future. Furthermore, every country has its own unique history and culture which effects its development. This model is based on Western Europe which is a strong limitation. Thank you for your question I think there is a future video on the topic of limitation of models and why they are still useful despite being inaccurate.

[@airzahirakhan1143]

@@classroomnation-geography7445 ohk! Got it. thank you so much for clearing my doubts in so much detail loads of love 💛 SHUKRAN SIR 🤩

[@Farhankhan_the1]

Have a question for you! Let’s say Japan is in stage 5 with low fertility of 1.1 and there population will halve over the end of the century then what? Will population become stable again or even grow and starts again with stage 1 in sense of new benchmark of population like japan projected pops is 75million in 2100.

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

That's a great question! I will preface this by saying it is hypothetical and we won't know the answer for another hundred years, and that never in History have we had situations like we have now. Mainly due to all the technological and medical advances. That said, I think birth rates in many countries are low because "life pressure" is too high. In countries like Japan, young people have less disposable income than their parents and face growing pressures from all sides. There have been many studies on the behaviour of animals and humans that show that when they are stressed, they stop reproducing, and the same is true for economic and resource stress. But as the population naturally falls, the resources will become more plentiful again, and the demand for labour will increase. Which will cause the cost of living (rent, houses, etc.) to fall, and wages will rise. Thus reducing environmental stress, making people happier and once again raising the birth rate to a more sustainable level of around 2. I am sure countries like Japan will reach a sustainable level eventually, but it may take a few generations to do so. I hope you find this answer to your liking. I would love to know what you think since it is a purely theoretical question with no definitive answer yet.

[@Farhankhan_the1]

@@classroomnation-geography7445 i agree this situation is as unprecedented as the situation we are expected to face the coming decades such as climate change affecting every one of us and the migration derived from that. For Japan case I think they would hop back and forth between last stages as they either open up for immigration or use incentives to increase births(which stop working after a while). I think our current economic system puts so much pressure for us to not to have kids and all. Population projections are just that projections, we can’t predict next year properly as we have seen in 2020. Also the need of prospect of having a plan for any possible future pandemic because of growing risk of that. Pandemic has changed or accelerated projections all together for many countries. I kinda-ish trust UN population prospect but still I see many people just using 2019 UN prospects, instead of 2021 or 2022. I reckon many people are also waiting for a year or two to start using new stats. On a side note- I don’t know if earth is overpopulated or underpopulated (as musk thinks so) but I’m sure we are not using resources properly so to safe guard biodiversity and us.

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

@@Farhankhan_the1 That is a good point about pandemics. In nature, pandemics come about as a means to balance populations, but with medical advances the way they are, we can overcome most pandemics. I agree with you that new ones may become more common as our urban populations grow. I would say we are overpopulated, given the current technology at our disposal. According to Boserup's model, humans always come up with a way to grow more and increase and sustain the populations but personally, I think there comes the point where we simply run out of certain resources. I recommend the book The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History by Elizabeth Kolbert if you want a glimpse at the damage humans have done already.

[@pradeependers]

which stages come after stage 5

[@classroomnation-geography7445]

Traditionally there are only 5 stages in the model. It is a fairly basic model that makes many assumptions which gives it limited usefulness when applied to the real world. It also, suggests there is only one path to development and progress.