Do You Steal Bases off the Pitcher or Catcher? | Baseball Bits

[@FoolishBaseball]

Use code FOOLISH50 to get 50% OFF your first Factor box plus 20% off your next month at bit.ly/4eVxkmr

[@Paulburg3r]

Ootp?

[@CaioMot4]

stealing is wrong

[@FoolishBaseball]

baserunners are unethical

[@itsyaboi1245]

There is no ethical baserunning under MLB rules

[@tiger5869]

​@@FoolishBaseballthey're trying to avenge the umpires that were lied to by making the catchers that lied to them loom bad

[@ieatopps]

Stealing is only wrong if you’re caught.

[@greatgreentea]

the miserable base conditions set in place because of the unethical owning class of pitchers and catchers has forced the working class base runners to resort to stealing to even think of upward mobility of reaching scoring position, who’s the real unethical party?

[@mrorcadood]

"elly, you're ruining my point" cracked me up

[@FoolishBaseball]

look at you. you're laughing. the fast man ruined my point, and you're laughing.

[@CupGuyDude12]

@@FoolishBaseballelly stole something from one of the guys that throw the ball around and this goober is laughing!

[@Grizz1yAdams]

"Watch out! He's got 'getting away from the cops' speed!"

[@IThinkIndiansArentStinky]

If elly gets on base. He takes 2nd easy. The problem is him getting on base :(

[@blueredlover1060]

Elly is trying to be the next Rickey Henderson. He's got to steal home fairly regularly to fulfill that quest line

[@zacharyliles8657]

if i were a pitcher i would simply not allow any baserunners

[@FoolishBaseball]

Few have considered this

[@sxchen1268]

Harder than it seems

[@gamemeister27]

​@@sxchen1268I find giving up home runs to be very easy, and yet I still have no base runners

[@dkroll92]

I call that the Kershaw-deGrom factor

[@dontwannaname]

Allowing baserunners is for suckers

[@stinkasaurus]

0.2 seconds is a long time? I can't wait to tell my wife!

[@FoolishBaseball]

I can't wait to tell your wife either pal

[@throwawayemail-un4xr]

@@FoolishBaseball 😲

[@Logan-AI]

@@FoolishBaseball Now THAT is a steal.

[@kenw2225]

Using the pitcher read to tell the catcher

[@SRTJamo]

I’ll be telling her too. Me and foolish tag teamed her last night

[@pranavarora9976]

OG Foolish fans already know the answer from the Barajas video.

[@FoolishBaseball]

pain

[@suntower4379]

@@FoolishBaseballbro foreshadowed his own video

[@smalliebigs101]

@@FoolishBaseballi could swipe a bag off rob barajas

[@connor4tnr123]

@@smalliebigs101no, you could swipe a bag off aj burnett tho✅✅

[@makanih808]

As a Giants fan, we already know the answer with Patrick Bailey behind the dish

[@yukdum]

My favorite thing about Yadier Molina was how he would look straight into the camera and say "It's poppin' time!" before gunning down a would-be base thief.

[@TryPuttingItInRice]

Disney needs to hire you to write for the MCU

[@tonysimicich4974]

After "stealing" the base, the base is still there. It's just piracy.

[@stevemeters3090]

Base Piracy? I like it.

[@jackkaczmarski]

If it’s piracy then why do the Pirates suck at it?

[@obtusemooose]

pirating the base. reminds me of a special someone

[@ExpedientFalcon]

You wouldn't download a base, would you?

[@stevemeters3090]

@@ExpedientFalcon only off Napster.

[@StarkRavingSports]

When is the Baseball Bits on the efficacy of hitting your tummy to mitigate hunger coming out?

[@sgtslaughter54]

I think the main variable here might be the availability of a dog to pet. On top of that, the type of dog, fluff of the dog, and overall friendliness of the dog. Let me know if you want to do some research on this. I'd be willing to help.

[@FoolishBaseball]

there are more studies to be conducted

[@bernier42]

Bailey doesn’t take video suggestions.

[@FTLnovaKid]

😂

[@lapotencia25]

Statcast has only been tracking the speed at which one hits his tummy since the beginning of the 2024 season. We'll have to wait to get a longer period of reliable data

[@obscurereference6298]

You wouldn't steal a car You wouldn't steal a base

[@FoolishBaseball]

You wouldn’t download a run

[@jroggs85]

I tried to find a good torrent, but it just ended up causing a rain delay.

[@obscurereference6298]

@@FoolishBaseball isn't that what Elly did?

[@treysonmcgrady4750]

@@FoolishBaseballBut you would manufacture one.

[@ReidTheRulesGuy]

​@@FoolishBaseball I might if it's groovy enough

[@lostinrabbithole12]

"Well I'll show you a variety of factors, pal!" Seamless sponsor integration

[@gabrielarrigo1525]

👀

[@EDF1919]

I'm pretty sure you steal bases on the diamond

[@FoolishBaseball]

writing this down

[@Garrett.Sports.YouTube]

hmm… you may be onto something 🤔

[@reggae-rock-roots]

Yes, but you don't steal bases OFF the diamond, which is, I believe, the relevant comparison given the video's title!

[@EDF1919]

@@reggae-rock-roots 🤓

[@Compucles]

All your base belong to us!

[@ThatOneGuy8305]

John Lester is one of the funniest baseball players of all time. Is a leftie so has the natural advantage against base stealers, still manages to be entirely unable to stop base stealers, still manages to be a 43 career WAR player. Being elite at pitching but unable to do what many people would consider a much simpler and low-pressure thing is insanely relatable.

[@Compucles]

What's insane is that only one team ever really took advantage of it to run wild on him.

[@sealeo5772]

Imagine your one job being to throw a ball, practicing your whole life to throw a ball as well as you can, and then being unable to throw the ball when rotated 90 degrees.

[@TryPuttingItInRice]

@@sealeo5772 i was gonna say, these guys practice their entire lives to throw the ball toward home plate, not sideways twisted facing a bag.

[@schroedericeman7200]

Foolish Baseball, Pitching Ninja, and Jomboy are actively changing the way players play the game and analysts analyze the game

[@FoolishBaseball]

Thanks!

[@user-nv3eh6ni6b]

bde too

[@ryan_alexander]

so is [NAME REDACTED]

[@Dopethrone_Wizard]

@@ryan_alexanderhey watch it. He’s still blacklisted. Not allowed to talk about him. Even though he was completely exonerated.

[@ryan_alexander]

@@Dopethrone_Wizard it’s so dumb lol

[@Benisuber1]

I actually stopped a video on Japanese City Pop to watch this video.

[@FoolishBaseball]

You have to watch something about children’s cartoons next

[@Compucles]

@@FoolishBaseball I paused this video to watch one on "Superman: The Animated Series." Does that work?

That's a fun paradox -- being good at preventing steals is more important for a catcher, but the way the pitcher pitches has more effect on whether baserunners steal. Cool video

[@kenw2225]

Baserunning requires reading the pitcher for the jump. The catcher doesnt matter. Molina was the best steal catcher probably ever, so his impact is a bit different. Especially riggt hand pitchers are easy to read on a steal. Perfect your jump and read, and there wont even be a throw to 2nd

[@gb69-38]

@@kenw2225 thanks for explaining the entire premise of the video

[@williamzame3708]

The catcher catches most of the team's games and most of the innings in those games. The pitcher pitches at most 1/5 of the games and only 1/2 - 2/3 of the innings in those games. It is probably useful for a *team* to teach its pitchers to be better at preventing steals, but that is probably secondary to teaching its pitchers to prevent baserunners to begin with.

[@lukej4168]

As a Nats fan, one thing you’re forgetting about the Corbin Gallen comparison is that Corbin allows so. many. baserunners. So to some extent this gap is probably explained by the fact that Corbin pitches with a runner on first all the time, Gallen *probably* not as much. Would have to dive into the number of opportunities to know for sure. I’m sure Gallen is better at holding runners, but the gap might not be as severe.

[@FoolishBaseball]

The Statcast leaderboard in the description has steal attempts based on opportunities

[@MacDaddyMace]

1:09 KENNY LOFTON MENTIONED

[@FoolishBaseball]

put him in the HOF cowards

[@ahol9120]

3.2% HOF vote was so disrespectful for the legend! He belongs in!

[@Compucles]

@@FoolishBaseball Have Jim Edmonds join him while you're at it.

[@MrCubsfan3]

"your honor, I'm just a humble video essayist / microwaveable meal salesman" sounds like the start of the best alibi for why the defendant was *not* in fact behind the greatest heist from the us federal reserve in history

[@adaml8400]

I don't know why, but when I heard the first three words of this, I kind of assumed that Bailey was about to go full Foghorn Leghorn voice and was kinda thrown when he didn't.

[@jamesback5099]

Thank you for showing us a variety of factors!

[@FoolishBaseball]

gotta account for everything

[@kennykimbrough4020]

jazz chisolm getting thrown out was by far my favorite part. replayed it at least 69 times

[@randomcoffeetable777]

I think it’s a fair conclusion. It’s the margins in baseball that make such a difference in the long term term. Almost every major league catcher has a competitive arm (obviously there are a few outliers in each direction) but when fractions of a second determine everything any variance outside of that determines whether or not an attempt even happens. Kinda reminds of the Bull Durham quote on hitting, in a 500 AB season the difference between .250 and .300 is one hit a week.

[@lunarumbreon7699]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Foolish Baseball and Defunctland fandom has a large overlap

[@lionheartz1337]

4:03 I watch my Foolish Baseball as the good lord intended: Video game on main monitor, left ear Japanese City Pop, Right ear Mister Foolish, Video of Foolish on top of second monitor, subway surfer/family guy clips on the bottom of second monitor. This maximizes my efficieny.

[@dfp_01]

Don't forget frequent glances over to first base. Just because you'll never get there doesn't mean the batter didn't

[@thecaveman3503]

Rickey Henderson could have explained in 2 paragraphs while calling himself Rickey 😂😂😂😂 fr tho great video I always love your analysis on every topic you cover. Keep up the great work Baily! Sincerely, Some old guy in Georgia

[@JoeSaidWut]

I have never used Factor before, but that "I'll show you a variety of Factors" was brilliant! Love your content.

[@SpeedyCashRegister]

"guy throws a baseball, a breakdown". That killed me. 🤣

[@chrismanson9556]

the thigh reveal in the beginning was insane

[@FoolishBaseball]

sitting makes them look at lot bigger than they actually are

[@TryPuttingItInRice]

@@FoolishBaseball don't lie. we know you been eating them factor meals like Squidward ate those Krabby Patties and now you're more caked up than Kim Kardashian after her 6th BBL.

[@workingclassrunner]

Chris Young, the big dude who GMs the Rangers now, was of course a pitcher. And he was notoriously easy to steal on in his day. He was always slow to home, and teams/runners who knew abused him with a man on 1st. 213 attempts attempt and 180 successful (87%).

[@MrFallingcats]

The way I lit up when Rod Barajas made an appearance. This one's for the culture.

[@killermonjero]

I just finished watching 11 baseball games in 33+ hours. I was a bit sick of the game, but Foolish Baseball pulled me back to reality--baseball is life.

[@jakesorrentino7230]

Going off your video on Rod Barajas from a few years ago would also be a good point. McKenzie seems like the new Burnett

[@fiona8081]

"...3 Mississippi, Bo!" which is how Bo Bichette says "go" in his mind......... thank you for this wonderfully insightful knowledge, Bailey 🙏

[@0ppaiDragon]

I always thought it was a fear of the catcher that stopped stolen bases attempts. This is a great use of statistics to show why the pitcher is really in control of the situation. Great video

[@a_bad_bassist6404]

Another really good example of this is the 2024 Giants. Patrick Bailey has the 3rd fastest pop time in MLB yet the Giants have given up the most steals o any team all year.

[@msteresa653]

All while stealing the least bases themselves 🤦🏽‍♀️ one of the most depressing facts of the most depressing season in recent memory

[@mnguyen313]

Hayden Birdsong is the answer, he’s so good at mixing his looks

[@Jackson33miller]

Another baseball bits banger. Genuinely some of the most insightful and whimsical sports content out right now

[@nateslaman8783]

what we're taught in college that can make it significantly easier to swipe a bag is the ucla timing. using that cadence can lump essentially every guy into a timing in between those 4 letters. at my last school hope international we were taught to vault, we don't get as big of a lead and use the vault shuffle as a means to either gain momentum, or if we get into our shuffle early, we can still steal from that point since we don't take a large lead in the first place. stealing is only timing and trust

[@SharurFoF]

4:15 I love this

[@Chairz]

For lefties specifically, there are two types: Knowers and Readers. Knowers know when they are picking off or not before they even start their stretch windup. Readers lift their leg up and “read” whether they want to pick off or not. Readers typically have the best balk moves, the grey area between a pickoff and an attempt at home.

[@Digbong96]

As a PO we are taught to know the runner. Like you don’t have to focus on someone built like Pete Alonso. But if you have the leadoff guy get on, mix how many times you look at him, or slide step sometimes, it can make you really good if you mix well especially if ur a miss barrel low strikeout kinda guy

[@mikececconi2677]

There are edge-cases where you're stealing off the catcher, I think. Guys like Mike Piazza who hit so well that you can forgive a bad arm or a bad pop time, when the catcher is fringey at the position but the team is trying to get away with it because that's what their roster construction is stuck with, I think you might be stealing off the catcher. But in most cases, you're absolutely correct.

[@dfp_01]

Baserunners facing the Cardinals between 2004 and 2022 would steal off the catcher, because as long as it wasn't Molina they were basically given second base for free

[@thatgingermatt]

Hate when my tummy rumbles

[@FoolishBaseball]

a grumbly tummy can ruin any editing sesh

[@ExhaustedElox]

My pitcher in "Road to the Show" never picked over to first. Didn't have to when he had a sub 3 ERA for his career.

[@brhettdavis7061]

The bourgeoisie politics that are manifest in mickey mouse are abhorrent and I'm happy THIS specific video brought that to light and not a different one.

[@TopSoulMan]

Damn.... You put a callback in for an ad? That's genius!

[@pyRoy6]

Oh wow. With all of the main channel content you've been putting out, I almost forgot about this.

[@greggidicsin5206]

Great video as always Bailey. Another data point you could've used to compare how much more influence pitchers have on stolen bases allowed is the difference in average pop times between the fastest catcher and slowest catcher is about 0.3 seconds. With pitchers, even if only comparing their fastest stretch windups to the plate, it varies way more than 0.3 seconds, hence why the pitcher is a much bigger factor than the catcher in controlling stolen bases.

[@jacobrice3242]

That bit about the microwavable meal salesman gave me a good chuckle

[@leftysheppey]

More proof that the pitch clock is a good thing. Pick offs are exciting, at least for me

[@tomritz52]

This weekend just got a whole lot better.

[@FoolishBaseball]

thanks!

[@santumi2298]

6:46 WHAT A CATCH

[@steveszymanski8647]

Would love to see the stats on catcher pickoffs factoring in their effect on the run game, though I’d imagine would be insignificant

[@TheGLORY13]

Obviously the true answer is it depends. Pitcher should keep the runner close, He should be quick to the plate. Also catcher shouldn't have a pop time sitting at 2+ seconds, should be a good throw etc. but it also starts with the pitcher.

[@bigprovos12]

Yadier molina must be a prophet, abides by "thou shalt not steal" very well

[@Compucles]

"If you can't get it to 2nd base in a certain pop time, you can't catch in the big leagues." And this is why Ivan Herrera is now back in AAA despite having a much superior bat to Pedro Pages, his replacement as Willson Contreras's backup catcher on the Cardinals.

[@gunnarfreeman9123]

Fried also has a higher whip, so there are more opportunities for runners to make an attempt to run every inning than when Nola pitches

[@Azeria]

Woodby Basestealer was my favourite player on the 1912 Cincinnati Reds

[@dfp_01]

Did you know he once stole 23 bases against Tungsten Arm O'Doyle in a single game

[@dirkdiggler91]

That was a very good City Pop reference

[@tylergoblirsch3735]

I wasnt considering watching a video on 1980s japanese city pop... but now i need to know what it is!

[@hansa49620]

My favourite part of the video is the sneaky POOP reference

[@drewski25]

We've come full circle to the "catcher who couldn't throw video"

[@FinalWizard]

You pretty much went over this with that one catcher that played for the Pirates.

[@bigjoe897]

I think we are not factoring in a very important part, and that's the fielders. It's their job to hide their bases from the baserunners to confuse them and make them take more time getting to the base.

[@GentlemanWorlock1]

This man doesn’t miss. Another banger video and my favorite part was that part he mentioned would be my favorite part.

[@daytwaqua]

Personally, I was thinking about switching to a video about Jet Grind/Set Radio, which might be tangentially related you that Japan Citypop thing, but probably isn't.

[@danielmoscovitz2520]

great stuff as always but I would love some CORRELATION math. I know the sample sizes are small, but you could do different catchers against an established pitcher to show the catcher's variance against the mean vs different pitchers against an established catcher. You then prove your case by saying basically "the variance for this pitcher's stolen base rate/success rate is only slightly correlated with the catcher while the catcher's variance in stolen base rate/success rate is much more correlated with different pitchers".

[@williamdowling7718]

Legend has it, when Yadier was a young boy, he and his friends gathered early in the morning to play a pickup game at the local lot. But when they got there, ready to play... They realized someone had come and stolen all of the bases from the field... Then and there he vowed to always be the best at nabbing base stealerrs.

[@certifiedfnhater4038]

Both. You get the head start off the pitcher and your speed helps beat the catchers arm.

[@aidan8080]

Foolish Baseball talking about David Peterson the day after I watched Peterson pitch

[@dirkdiggler91]

Bro out here knee capping himself "Microwave food salesman"

[@A_Wild_Yeengirl]

I wonder if the dense sea air in San Diego helps the run game there. Keeping the lungs full and whatnot.

[@jhatgotagat300]

I knew this in high school, I’d have the first pitch as a catcher for my top two pitchers specifically be a full check yet full step, second pitch would always be a half check slide step to try to catch em running on the half check. I went 40 caught in 47 attempts.

[@Jacob-gv8cn]

I’m glad we’ve gotten 2 videos demonstrating the absurdity of yadier Molina defensively but when is it time for Jose Molina

[@stiffweiner918]

“Which is what Bo says when he says go in his head” was perfect

[@connordelaney197]

Mariono Rivera = Didn't allow any. These are the analytics I come here for 👏

[@TheTEN24]

Super interesting breakdown I especially enjoyed the Lopez changes footage. This also explains what I always thought about the Mets pitching staff

[@TimeNap]

Foolish Julio Foolio Baseball with another great video. RIP Foolio.

[@joshuapatrick682]

At least this video isn't solely about Shohei like literally every youtube video MLB's official channel has put out this year.

[@blue_manatee3895]

I really wish you had talked about the time Ryan McMahon stole home on us because Yasmani Grandal is a moron; it would've happened with Acuña too but that was when he injured himself

[@samc1253]

This is just the 2024 Foolish version of the Rod Barajas video

[@Twheak]

I love these videos man. One of my comfort zones.

[@konzertnr9]

Righties are not required to step off the plate as long as they step towards the base

[@Compucles]

You do know that plenty of companies have been making frozen pre-made meals since the original TV Dinners back in the '50s, don't you? They're all low quality food, and if you do find them necessary, you can buy them cheaper at your local grocery store.

[@jhendrix2845]

How's Foolish not have a analytics job with a team yet? Do all the teams already have a version of him? Is he just nerding it for our sake

[@Youarereadingmycomment]

For those who are wondering there is an unwritten imaginary 45 degree rule that lefty pitchers go off of for that pick off move to first. So if it looks like to whichever umpire called the balk it’s because they thought the pitcher passed the 45 degree line angle towards home plate.

[@druashley]

The dad joke at 1:44 got me good.

[@MonsieurBooyah]

most controversial part here is the way my boy pronounces "balk"

[@lukenielsen8331]

heyo the sponsorship deadline came a-callin, great video as always!

[@KBisBaseball]

wow level three made me think that was good video because i liked this part

[@griffinhays2053]

This is just what I needed after work tonight

[@alexparker3277]

This is my favorite microwavable meal salesman channel.

[@dory9514]

I think you steal bases to get onto the next base

[@FoolishBaseball]

only because you're not allowed to go backwards

[@dontwannaname]

It's a slippery slope. Start with one stolen base then onto base larceny

[@frenchfrey65]

@@FoolishBaseball Jean Segura would like a word as he went from 3rd to 1st...

[@joecool385]

@@FoolishBaseball Only if it makes a travesty of the game. Non-travesty backwards-running is OK by the rule book.

[@DEE-Reece22]

Yea you show em a variety of factors bailey!

[@deversandbello]

this was thought provoking and well done.

[@Wolfeson28]

The true answer to this video is the 2024 SF Giants. Despite having Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher, who is right at the top of Statcast's lists for Catcher Pop Time and Catcher's CS Above Average, they have allowed the most SBs in all of MLB. What number on Bailey's catcher throwing stats ranks very low? His number for Runner Distance From 2nd (at the time the pitch crosses the plate) is 2nd worst in the league. Unsurprisingly, the Giants rank near the very bottom (27th) in that Pitcher Base Advances Prevented stat FB showed at 10:15.

[@baseballislife4195]

The king is back boys

[@FoolishBaseball]

that's right

[@chrisharris6834]

Foolish Baseball. Would you be able to do a video on home runs hit off Curveballs? Premise; When something doesn’t go according to plan, they say; “life threw me a curve ball.” But what is the statistical probability of going deep on that pitch?

[@dfp_01]

If it's Glasnow, 0 unless you're Yan Gomes

[@jordankilps]

I got distracted by children’s cartoons on my second monitor who was at fault?

[@heartlessvulture885]

Why does he always release a video on my birthday every year without fail

[@Zoyx]

Last night, the Twins catcher (Vázquez) stole a base. Lead to a 3-run inning. I would like a breakdown of that. Unfortunately, there isn't very good video coverage of the steal because no one expects a catcher to steal a base.