Does Centipawn Math Prove Hans Cheated?

Hikaru's been tweeted at and yelled at from twitch chat to review @milkychess 's latest video titled HUGE FINDING: Hans Niemann has 2500 Strength • HUGE FINDING: Hans Nie...
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#gmhikaru #chess #chessdrama

[@isaactakeuchimusic]

It's rather suspicious how much Hikaru insists he isn't a data scientist. I'm starting to believe he is, in fact, a data scientist.

[@w1mark275]

Maybe we should get a data scientist to test this theory.

[@followufollowme]

data scientist doesn't exist... it's called statisticians.... failed statisticians are data scientists.

[@leugim_ofc]

@@w1mark275 You should ask Hikaru to do this task, I think he's a data scientist

[@GhostStyle007]

2022 streaming is 20% content and 80% making sure that you are not offending anyone's feeling... That's sad but that's how it works now.

[@mikeh_nz]

The problem is we can’t prove he’s not a data scientist. Though Hikaru has admitted to using data when aged 12 & 16.

[@mattparkinson8471]

Guys, I've got a sneaky feeling that Hikaru isn't a data scientist.

[@moe_bot]

ikr fuck me, thought my video kept rewinding.

[@dirteh2332]

Lol read this early in the video, was about to start counting how many times he said it

[@susbedo9258]

@@moe_bot yeah, me too!! Lol. I had to double check I didn't accidentally rewind the video or experienced Deja Vu

[@Warcheiftan]

He's not a data scientist but a statistics scientist

[@oraz.]

This is 1000 times better than that Yosha stuff

[@andreslfr]

A a data scientist myself, I can agree with the methodology and the findings about Hikaru not being a data scientist.

[@macurvello]

Can confirm, I was there, I was the data.

[@placebojesus5652]

The data speaks for itself

[@Locke19901]

As an actual data scientist, statistician, and amateur chess player .... this is by far the most damning evidence and the correct method for determining cheating.

[@andepau2]

Then you have achieved what hikaru hasn’t

[@cozmiucc]

Yeah, right! I wouldn't risk 3 dollars on court on this shit

[@t33can]

Working in the same profession I agree. On top of that the qualitative facts of proven shady behaviour previously. Things just don't add up in Mr Niemann's favour in my opinion. Like what -- unrecognized chess genious who cheated but in truth is really just outstandingly late-bloomer strong with weird rating and strength increases + edgy personality? I see. Sounds like wishful thinking to me like when charlatans don't survive Fisher type tests (That is you pretend you can predict A vs. B from C, where all see only C but you say you have "the gift", when in fact, guees what, you don't and your probability of predicting A vs. B is in fact just the same as everyone else's). So that whenever the test rejects the charlatan's gifts they find another excuse (bad weather, etc.). Here, to me, there are so many bad pointers towards _something_ fishy (pun intended) going on.

[@colelangford6369]

@@t33can that’s a good pun

[@phoenixvance6642]

I took like 3 statistics classes as part of my major and I agree

[@nuclearcrayons3511]

Things I learned from this video: 1. Hikaru is not a data scientist 2. Hans has the weirdest trend ACPL in chess history 3. Hikaru is not a data scientist

[@rupok90]

Hans has a lot of other weird trends that no other chess player has. What's funny is until recently FIDE decided to do nothing about it.

[@ThePixieRage]

Hans has the exact same trends as any other player would if the whole world was witch hunting every single game. It’s easy to cherry pick stats with fake algorithms that you ‘believe’ are accurate. Go watch GM Ben Finegold who gives the best non-biased insight on this. Hikaru is just padding his wallets with this drama

[@rupok90]

@@ThePixieRage 'Believe' what you want. Clearly you have zero clue about what any of this data points if you that's your take. And no Hans does not have the same trend as any other player. That this is the whole point which you clearly haven't watched.

[@selectedsound.]

@@ThePixieRage cheater detected.

[@combatsportlover6919]

@@ThePixieRage But they looked at the other players and he DOESN'T have the same trends.

[@jun3078]

Disappointed that people will never believe Hans became 3000 elo from covid mutation

[@maxq404]

The genes speak for itself

[@thebirdhasbeencharged]

Pawn Strain

[@aquatazer]

He’s simply figured out the way to use the 5G waves from getting the jab like no one else has. Stockfish straight to the brain.

[@dannygjk]

😂

[@selectedsound.]

😂😂😂😂

[@NadavLuzia]

I love how the Brazilian guy smiles the WHOLE time 😂

[@ricardodossantos1642]

😂😂😂

[@dmsysoj2415]

yeah we smile a lot

[@user-qh4dr1vy9d]

We need to laugh otherwise we would be crying all the time

[@freitasmsouza]

😁😁😁

[@allendepresidente1970]

welcome to brazil

[@viniciusjdasilva8555]

Guys I am brazilian and this dude is very legit and has been part of the community for a while. Not saying his conclusions are correct but he is def coming from an honest position of trying to understand the data.

[@wooshbait36]

🫳🌿

[@TJ__23]

Also Brazil is a cesspit filled w degenerates

[@Ronaldinh1]

não estão corretas? lance a lance analisado e não estão corretas? kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

[@isaacpianos5208]

@@Ronaldinh1 ele disse "não estou *afirmando* que os arquivos estão corretos" Só pra ficar com um pé atrás caso cheguem tentando desprovar

[@gustavolopes8297]

@@Ronaldinh1 você precisa melhorar sua interpretação e seu inglês

[@the___dude]

Everyone is asking if Hans cheated but nobody is asking, "Is Hikaru a data scientist?"

[@DagonFF]

He knows chess better than any data scientist that ever walked the Earth

[@adolthitler]

Hikaru is cheating at data science. He is getting fed the moves.

[@GeekProdigyGuy]

​@@DagonFF unfortunately Hikaru doesn't have much knowledge about data, evidence, or statistics. in his own words, top level players are basically uneducated thanks to all the time they spend studying chess :)

[@bajrangmishraiitkgp2003]

@@DagonFF and any amateur chess player+ data scientist who walked on earth are better than him in interpretating data . Something special? Isn't it obvious EINSTEIN!!

[@snoozy04]

I'm not sure, I'm not a data scientist.

[@nitroKenan]

-Lawyer: Hikaru, video is fine, you can use it as long as you keep saying "I'm not a data scientist so I don't know". -Yes Sir.🤣

[@boxofcans461]

I didn't hear it in the video🤷

[@praj477]

That's a bold claim, again I'm not a lawyer maybe he said it

[@gladosadoree]

@@boxofcans461 Of course you didn't hear it in the video. But it should come as no surprise that Hikaru's lawyer(s) told him he cannot just make bold statements, without knowing they're true (or maybe he simply realizes this himself). So he is, rightly so, larding his stream with de facto disclaimers -- especially when it pertains to scientific methods he confesses to know little about. Hikaru does know chess, though. That is what I like about his take on this: he's one of the very few people in the world who can actually properly judge Hans' play. So, when Hikaru says "Those aren't 2700 moves!", you can safely bet he's right. He is not maybe literally on par with Magnus, but assuredly in the same league. Like Fabi. When people like that are talking, it's good to listen.

[@dawson8854]

@@gladosadoree this is a well written comment

[@wooshbait36]

@@gladosadoree Too long, didn't read. Next time write shorter comment for people with life like me (CEO of a big company). Needless to say - downvoted.

[@adamshehata6466]

Honestly, made respect to this individual for putting together such scientific data. First person to actually look at thousands of data points

[@isaacpianos5208]

The dude is amazing He was just trying to form an opinion about the case and accidentaly brought more evidence than anyone ever could

[@joshs7160]

Looked at thousands of data points and then misrepresented them.

[@ehabshehata4136]

@@joshs7160 how so? And even if you dont agree with his conclusion his use of cpl is a great qualitative measure of someone's play. The data can be analyzed by hopefully other referees in the chess arena

[@ehabshehata4136]

@@isaacpianos5208 couldnt agree more. And the level of effort/work he put into presenting the information should also be applauded

[@joshs7160]

@@ehabshehata4136 Just have a look at r/chess it has already been debunked.

[@uberneanderthal]

"If I'm 2500 and at the right moments of every game I can pick the best move I can be 2700" yes, that's what the data is essentially saying. Hans is a ~2500 who is 'magically' making engine perfect moves at critical moments and therefore playing well above his actual rating. Over a small time frame, say a few games or a couple tournaments, this could be chalked up to simple variance. But this has been 500+ games of extreme 'luck' for Hans. Combined with his history and other factors, well I think the picture is very clear what's actually going on here. Some ask the question: "but how does Hans know when there's a critical moment?" and there's many ways he can determine this. For example, he can program the engine to only communicate to him when there is only one or two good moves. When there are 3 or more good moves, the engine can be programmed to leave it to Hans and his 2500 ability to find one of those moves. As long as Hans finds any one of the good moves, even if it's not the absolute best, he'll stay out of trouble and the critical moments where he **has** to find the absolute best move the engine will take over and carry him to victory.

[@uberneanderthal]

This may also explain why Hans is so comfortable playing 'weird' lines. He knows he can play off-beat, rarely played variations and the engine will keep him out of trouble, while his opponent is left scrambling trying solve the unusual puzzle over the board. By playing these obscure variations and awkward positions, he's increasing the chances his opponent makes a mistake while keeping his own chances essentially the same. That may also be why Magnus chose an unconventional line in his match with Hans. Leave it to Magnus to set the perfect trap.

[@peceed]

There is also possible a multiple persnality like disorder that ativates only when Niemann is in the critical situation.

[@LucasCFCJF]

​@@uberneanderthal perfect comment. And may I add how incredible was Magnus' ability to detect his cheating behaviour. Funny to think that people seriously doubted Magnus' judgement.

[@shaunmcisaac782]

@@uberneanderthal You bring up an excellent point. You play something unusual and yet your opponent plays it like he's 3600 and not even thinking about moves? OK...

[@cheats411]

@@uberneanderthal Hans playing weird lines is the perfect explanation for why his acpl and stdcpl are different than the other players. He plays positions that make his opponents play worse. He's playing less like a computer, but his opponents are playing even worse than that because they don't understand the position. I don't know if Hans has cheated OTB, but this is all rampant speculation. Playing less like a computer than other players does not mean he's using a computer more than other players.

[@trevor3928]

Just incase you were still wondering if Hikaru is a data scientist... 6:39 7:31 10:19 13:47 14:35 15:21 15:33 16:00 16:58 17:39 20:43 30:47 33:22 38:34 41:03 44:16 Hopefully this cleared things up for you guys.

[@LC00547]

I don't know... I need more evidences to conclude he's not a data scientist... I'll investigate.

[@keerthivasanr8865]

Editor pls pin this guy

[@ricobarth]

But can you explain to Hikaru whether that constitutes a trend? Because I hear he's not a data scientist.

[@phonesgiveeveryoneadhd2826]

This comment needs to go up

[@kichu2555]

Guys i think he is not a data scientist

[@MattSmith-il4tc]

One thing that I'm still not sure of after watching this video: Is Hikaru a data scientist? He didn't clarify that.

[@Jeffrey_Tyler]

I'm also wondering, does he know? He said 162 times that he doesn't know, but I'm still not sure if he knows or not 😂

[@decadent5341]

rewatched 4 times, still not sure..

[@DenCato]

C'mon, it's so obvious! By asking the question a million times, he increases the sampling space of which he can than statistically prove he IS a data scientist.

[@snoozy04]

7:31

[@snoozy04]

10:19

[@torinojuve1]

I'm a data scientist at Google. I didn't replicate his results, but having listened through his analysis, this sounds very legit to me. A great data analysis in my opinion.

[@paulobernardes9832]

All data and spreadsheets are open to the public for analysis in the description of the original video.

[@allanbru6068]

Bravo! Ti sei laureato alla polito?

[@shucklesors]

it is pretty fucking obvious youre not a data scientist at Google... LMFAO

[@Sasatern]

@@allanbru6068 Danke für deine Anteilnahme

[@clashplaya8638]

Hikaru is a data scientist. He’s just being humble

[@danielumisedo2986]

Has Hikaru ever been humble?

[@Boosticuffs]

The Centipawn Loss speaks for itself.

[@renatomoreira3063]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[@kristoferjacobson8195]

bet hans didnt see this one coming

[@kareandersson]

One interesting question is if it would be cheating to communicate with an engine using only parapsychologic power? Then you produce engine moves, but without any obvious means of communication. It can't be illegal to be able to for instance read thoughts and do kind of remote viewing. Probably that will also be a gradual process, though, so the same patterns as shown for common players do apply.

[@nathanbates9561]

@@kareandersson ?

[@vuminh252525]

@@kareandersson If you can do that without the help of any machine implant, in my opinion, it still cheating but there no way you would get caught.

[@antoinerauzy]

As a computer scientist (PhD, University Professor), I can confirm: if this is true, this is a strong evidence of cheating. This would mean that Niemann did not improve over the last years. He just got up once and reached 2700+ ELO by playing sometimes like a god, sometimes like a 2500 ELO (or less). Weird.

[@RogueCylon]

Which is a common trait when you depend on cheating. You are not improving, but relying on the help. Hence. Not even a small improvement over time.

[@nsei686]

This is true

[@oraz.]

Thank god you confirmed it

[@CarlozN]

As a Phd in computer science holder, I can confirm as well. 😂

[@ryanb2607]

This isn't even what the data in the video indicates. I don't believe you are a computer scientist!

[@ivarkristoffersson3282]

As a former teacher in math (IB program in Sweden) this correlation for all other players is tremendous significant. For me these charts is strong evidence of cheating from Hans Niemann. You can't explain this as if Hans is a different genius. Either you learn chess the long way and improve gradually or you use other methods. FIDE has to check this up and consult experts in statistic mathematic analysis. Great work behind this program and investigation. Thanks Nakamura also for showing.

[@sub-harmonik]

Hans skilled player but that is not normally, This very very insane....They need to check him butt and game.....

[@tonyhawk123]

Yeah at this point it's beyond doubt Hans cheated. It’s ridiculous how much mental gymnastics people go through to try to argue otherwise.

[@MrSupernova111]

I have a minor in stats and I fully agree. The evidence for cheating is far too strong here. Cheers!

[@Javier_sama]

As a former teacher in math you should know that correlation does not imply causation

[@egdm1235]

​@@Javier_sama Except that here we're talking about parallel metrics and not causal factors. Accuracy, consistency, and higher ratings are all outputs of being a better chess player, and we have here in this analysis strong evidence of the relationships those three metrics maintain as a human player progresses. Hans' evolution as a player looks nothing like any other comparable player presented thus far. At ~2300 he had an enormous step change in the quality of his play, after which he did not improve despite his climb in rating. This is wildly suspicious. One point I did not see raised thus far is that Hans is likely somewhere substantially below 2500, as his accuracy and consistency measures are skewed by the amount that he (likely) has cheated.

[@pedroakjr2371]

Opponent: plays e4 Hikaru: I'm not a data scientist

[@krismg_21]

I leave my comment as a like, dont wanna ruin that

[@KraggHC]

After watching this, I am still extremely unsure about wether or not Hikaru might be considered a Data Scientist. He should really make it clear, so to not cause confusion.

[@boxofcans461]

To be clear he never said he won't be a data scientist 😏

[@dtooearth]

Quite right, because I'm thinking that he may be a data scientist, but he never clarified this, so I'm not sure.

[@commander8625]

Obviously he is a data scientist. What other profession would wear a pineapple shirt?

[@martelalexandredelcolle5308]

I have ended the video with the same doubt...

[@shumatsumata6833]

hikaru is a womanizer scientist

[@JohnVC]

Someone needs to make a techno remix of Hikaru saying "I'm not a data scientist."

[@ricardodossantos1642]

Up!!!!

[@PedroAugusto-lk7lh]

Please!!!

[@wooshbait36]

🫳🌿

[@GALENGODIS]

Someone tell Yuri Wong 🙂

[@Gabriel-ns2cn]

Que ORGULHO do Rafa, muito feliz por ele

[@C4rlos4le]

Resume o que ele falou aí...

[@mattheusq]

o mesmo blá blá do vídeo em português no começo, depois explicou aa evidências

[@mattheusq]

@@C4rlos4le entender ele é muito mais fácil do que entender o hikaru kkkkkkk

[@rodrigodouglas205]

Queria um vídeo legendado em BR

[@maumauemau]

@@rodrigodouglas205 mesmo vídeo português

[@samuelogre]

This analysis makes sense, if we assume that Hans is only cheating at critical moments to avoid being caught. The standard deviation shows that the quality of his moves are all over the place. On average he is playing as a 2500 player. However, at critical moments he is playing like an engine, therefore boosting his ratings to 2600+.

[@garrusv]

💯 agreed. Hans is clearly cheating selectively.

[@borismateev767]

If being a data guy was a continent, Hikaru would be on another planet.

[@wooshbait36]

🫳🌿 (touch grass)

[@RL_Happy]

@@wooshbait36 touch my grass

[@CoopMauKona]

The reason Hans graph looks that way is that he can only play top level chess using an engine. So when he doesn't use the engine he's more like a 2200 player so he will get wide variation. Whereas Gukesh is actually improving his skill, Hans is only using the engine (2800+ level) or not (2200).

[@MrSirBoastAlot]

@@RL_Happy 'gr' silent?

[@RL_Happy]

@@MrSirBoastAlot 👀

[@abhishekprasad1581]

Been grinding through these videos like bedtime stories.

[@coachmcguirk6297]

You have to grind through bedtime stories?

[@MeatBunFul]

@@coachmcguirk6297 yea man. Bedtime stories are serious business

[@utkarsh2947]

@@MeatBunFul can't agree more

[@Jeffrey_Tyler]

Ironically the last thing I do before I turn my tv off for the night is watch Hikaru's videos he posted that day 😂

[@huckles7353]

I don't even play chess and some how I've gotten lost is this rabbit hole.

[@ala7515]

This is the best investigative data analysis I have seen so far. This could be someone's PhD thesis! and Hikaru is a GM, but certainly not a data guy, as he keeps insisting on!

[@McRingil]

The standard deviation is 2-4 times greater than the average, that’s ridiculous level of noise

[@EnDeRBeaT]

The best part of this video was when Hikaru said "it's not data sciencin' time" and didn't data science all over everyone. Hikaru is truly one of the not data scientists of all time.

[@brutenient]

This is a very legit analysis. These are basically the learning curves of each gm on their road to 2700 when compared to an engine on a per move basis. There's no denying this.

[@tonysu8860]

There's plenty to deny regarding believability and factualness. Every person in the video(s) claims to be an expert on human learning, understanding and thinking without providing a single credential except perhaps that Hikaru himself is one of the world's foremost chess players. But does Hikaru also lay claim to understanding how all humans learn to play the game so as to be expert on whether Hans is actually learning or not? Whether a data scientist or chess player, I doubt that anyone can claim to be expert on recognizing when a person is learning something vs artificially relying on something else to play chess at a particular level.

[@ndnd7614]

@@tonysu8860 this guy has data science credentials tho. You can check his LinkedIn

[@williamrobert9898]

@@tonysu8860 Nah there is not especially when he applied it to hundreds of other players and Hans was the only odd one out

[@jonny7444]

@@tonysu8860 Are you stupid the evidence is undeniable. Hans is playing AT 2500 LEVEL, yet is somehow 2700, therefore the correlation is wrong, and something else is increasing his elo that aren't his skill level, aka he is using an engine. This is unrelated to learning, and has never happened with any other chess player in history.

[@diegorocha2186]

@@tonysu8860 He is not questioning Hans learning skill, he is claiming that the data shows that Hans is not evolving at all, but still getting rating! The question is legitimate, how on earth is it even possible? Like Nakamura said, maybe in critical positions Hans plays like a machine literally, but in average like a 2500 level!

[@damians.7859]

Hikaru not being a data scientist speaks for itself

[@viniciusmartins5607]

Mandou bem demais Rafa Milky! Fiquei felizão em ver que conseguiu essa visibilidade aqui pelo belo trabalho que fez :)

[@queenvrook]

A down-slanting mean and SD both mean that the person's play gets more and more consistent when compared to the engine. A mean is just adding up the centipawn loss on EVERY SINGLE MOVE divided by the number of moves. When this number slants down as your rating improves, that means you have fewer and fewer bad moves, and they are less bad. A standard deviation is just a measure of (sort of) on average, how far away is each move from the average centipawn loss. Again, if this number goes down as your rating goes up, it means that you are playing closer and closer to the engine's absolute best. I am trained in statistics, and it absolutely doesn't make sense that Hans's two lines are flat. If his moves, move-by-move, arent' getting closer to the engine's best move, then why is your rating going up? The only way I can see this happening is that, you aren't actually getting better at the game, but you are getting help on SOME moves, CRITICAL moves, so that you win, while the rest of your moves are no more accurate than we'd expect from a typical FM or IM. When data scientists try to identify "fake" data, the #1 strategy is that people are really bad at artificially producing a random spread of data. If you measure something in nature, there will be a random bell curve distribution to data, but if someone tampers with the data, it will suddenly break out very different from a bell curve.

[@chanmanmedia5845]

This answer is very perceptive of the issue. Kudos Mr. Grimmell.

[@cheats411]

Alternatively, Hans plays very strange lines that he understands slightly better than his opponents. So on average Hans is playing poor moves, but his opponents are playing moves that are even worse. That also explains his variable stdcpl. Everyone should take a step back and realize that it doesn't make much sense to say that him playing less like a computer than his opponents makes him more likely to be using a computer. You could easily make the opposite argument, his opponents play much more like computers so they must be using a computer. They also use computers even more as their elo increases which is why their stdcpl decreases. Obviously I don't think this is true, but it illustrates the point that this data doesn't really mean anything.

[@timuriglikov6712]

This reseach says that Hans from 2018 in many critical chess moments magically finds the best engine moves and then plays as usual 2500 player, which highly indicates cheating

[@nickmarquez4794]

Wasn’t he 15?

[@user-bj7um9uj6r]

@@nickmarquez4794 its saying that , until now the year 2022 , there is a moment he suddenly play like 2800 gm but then overall playing like an 2500.

[@tonysu8860]

I'd hardly consider playing out of statistical norm intermittently proof or suggestion of cheating. What you're saying means that every player should play entirely consistently at a level that means that the very same player should always win every tournament, the same player should be at the bottom of every tournament and every player should finish in the order of their rating. Any deviation would be an indication of cheating.

[@chancemoore1515]

None of this is indeterminate proof of cheating

[@chrimony]

@@tonysu8860 That's why Hans's consistency is compared to other players. Hans is the only one to not show an improvement in consistency over that ratings range. Which is exactly what you would expect if he cheats in only some of his games.

[@JustAPokemonCommentingOnVideos]

props to that guy for explaining everything so well idk why hikaru did not get it i ain't no data scientist either i am a school student and he made it easy to understand

[@susbedo9258]

Hikaru is just feigning ignorance and subtly pushing us to the facts presented. That way Hans have zero chance to sue him for defamation and win.

[@BigFatSandwitch]

@@susbedo9258 True. He was definitely showing fake scepticism. He looked way more convinced while watching the french girl with much less data analysis

[@Anteater23]

@@susbedo9258 Never thought of that. You’re probably right.

[@OpticIlluzhion]

It's so that a. His ass is covered in case he interprets the data wrong and he doesn't have to deal with annoying chatters b. New viewers that come in late and only see like the last half of things don't go "oH HikArU dOn'T pReTenD you uNdERsTanD tHis"... But I'm not a data scientist so I don't know

[@JustAPokemonCommentingOnVideos]

@@susbedo9258 makes sense ; thanks for reply

[@brandonmcheyenehoward1077]

I watched 2 videos of this guy and his theory seems pretty solid … if I was a chess cheater I would be very concerned

[@profecarlao]

me 2, lol

[@voidrift1508]

I study mathematics and statistics and Milky's video was pure gold. Very high quality data and his finding are indeed strongly indicative of that Hans Niemann has been cheating. My only concern is that the amount of moves per game are not taken into account here from what we can see, which could likely impact these statistics but even then the other GM's should also have been impacted. Big props to Milky Chess for this analysis.

[@danielumisedo2986]

Can you make a remix of all times Hikaru says "I'm not a data scientist"?

[@joshs7160]

Is that why it's being torn to shreds on Reddit?

[@MrSupernova111]

@@joshs7160 . What's your background that you know the analysis is "being torn to shreds?" If you understand statistics its irrelevant what redditors say. In this very comment section plenty of data scientists and math majors and vouching for this analysis.

[@joshs7160]

@@MrSupernova111 If you haven't seen the post, don't speak to me.

[@PaulHobbs23]

I work with data for a living and this post has been torn to shreds on Reddit.

[@zetlaoupah1773]

Hans, the human centipawn

[@cobalius]

*imagines a "centipawn" *

[@amsbeats841]

This is funny on so many different levels lol

[@da96103]

as opposed to the human centip*d*?

[@arkishchakraborty3787]

@@da96103 no, god, please, no..... NOOOOOOOOO.......

[@bt82]

But where would the beads go?!

[@lp4969]

Finally someone explains the exact method used and gives the source code as well. I hate when people try to look "mysterious" or something as if we couldn't understand it it was explained to us

[@cozmiucc]

No, he doesn't. The exact method is nowhere to found in this video. If it is, please timestamp.

[@mine_churros]

@@cozmiucc calculating centipawn loss in particular ELO range, thats the method

[@MrJoosebawkz]

This guy is simply a better presenter than Yosha but there are still many flaws: For one we know that he did analysis on Erigaisi but he doesn’t show his correlation value at the end? Why is that? Probably because while Hans correlation is “only” -0.5 -ish, Erigaisi’s isn’t even negative! So he specifically left out a player whose data wouldve contradicted his Narrative about Hans’. He also found his correlations by “binning” his thousands of data points into 3-4 bins. This is completely unnecessary, there is no reason to do this except to massage the data. If you do not go through this unnecessary process that can only lower the accuracy of your analysis then, surprise, the “weird” behavior he wanted to highlight doesn’t exist anymore. There are many many more issues than this obviously but I figured I would say the two most important ones (as listing a million minor flaws can sometimes make things more complicated to process): He hides data from the viewer that contradicts his claims and he massages the data to produce a result that he wants. He is a data scientist (not a statistician) so he’s able to present his “findings” in a much more professional way that I think was able to trick a few real data scientists / statisticians for a few hours. But people have gone through his data themselves to recreate his processes and found its flaws. I would recommend sorting through /r/chess by new and looking for: “A more thorough look at Neimann’s Centipawn Loss” - the only post fully dedicated to critiquing his analysis and “Brazilian Data Scientist Analyzes Thousands of Games and finds Niemann’s approximate rating” - this is a post of Bem -Vindos’ video. The initial reaction (just like with Yosha) was positive, but if you do your due diligence and read through the comments there are lots of data scientists and statisticians that explain the huge issues in his analysis. Unfortunately if he wants to do analysis like this properly he has a lot more work to do.

[@cozmiucc]

@@mine_churros so... no anal morse device. Just him calculating. While also calculating his chess moves... this sounds like the opposite of cheating

[@wellfan6698]

Well said. The methodology used has so many flaws!

[@jeffvanderwerf3391]

I don't know if this dude already has a PhD, but he should consider using his study of Hans for a quantitative dissertation 😀

[@gatoordinario94]

He was a data scientist but give up away to live from KZbin Chess 🤣🤣

[@lucasdsmota]

@@gatoordinario94 he recovered from a 1Mi reais (Brazil currency) debt thanks to his yt channel.

[@kelowna1366]

@@lucasdsmota onde vc viu isso?

[@blijebij]

That would be hilarious!

[@isaacfritsch]

@@kelowna1366 Ele fez um podcast e contou toda sua história de vida, mas não vou lembrar o nome do podcast

[@marco.nascimento]

Great analysis! This guy is one of the biggest chess streamings in brazil and before that, worked as a data scientist. The evidence of cheating is getting stronger as more analysis are made. Hoping other will try try to replicate this and expand the research.

[@oumaima353]

If Hikaru works hard enough he might one day become a data scientist 😅

[@YellowSpaceMarine]

maybe with a little computer help

[@ceoherohub2584]

to busy making bank of drama hope Hans lawyer gets a nice defamation suit.

[@mauricioc.7746]

@@ceoherohub2584 Hans has enough to start a lawsuit against a lot of chess KZbinrs, the problem is actually wining those.

[@driedpancake]

he's one of the strongest players of his generation. show some respect

[@richardhall4830]

Like only a data scientist can understand the difference between engine play and human play.

[@Tylorean]

Milky calling out Hikaru has to be one of the funniest things in this chess drama!

[@gbfootball9625]

Lol

[@Meroknight]

As a computer scientist with strong background in math (as all computer scientists are supposed to have), this is not merely a strong indication that Hans could have, or might have cheated. No, this is actually proof that he did cheat...

[@viniciusmelo7418]

yeah... that standard deviation represents that he is a weak player (compared to 2700 GMs), but sometimes he make the best possible moves

[@sylver76]

It is clearly beyond the realm of reasonable doubt.

[@Grandcapi]

He is one of the biggest streamers in Brazil. He made a lot of videos showing his work about the scandal. Unfortunately,k the videos are in Portuguese. When he released this video people asked him to show it to you. He has many followers that understand english (as is my case). And btw he made charts about other people, like Fischer.

[@thepaperbowser]

I'm currently getting a degree studying data, and this evidence is incredibly strong and damning. EDIT: I'm NOT saying this is proof, but it is certainly strong evidence that leads us to see that something is very different about the path Hans has taken to reach his current Elo rating. The evidence does not necessarily mean that he's cheating, but it is a huge red flag. At the FIDE level, this should mean more investigation. That said, on a personal level, this--along with the other red flags with Hans--is enough for me to believe that Hans has consistently cheated over the board.

[@euansmith7059]

What in you degree makes you say that? Using a 1st order least squares fit is not exactly “data science” 😂

[@matthewspears3786]

Check the reddit thread totally debunking this whole idea. "Data scientists" mostly know how to run certain formulas, not gather evidence in a scientific way removing bias. That's where Regan knows what he's doing, and his ROI calculations are far better than this relating to playing rating. This was someone looking for a conclusion and then finding evidence. It's convincing to many because it's oversimplified.

[@hudsonmoraes1261]

@@matthewspears3786 Eu assisti todos os seus vídeos sobre esse assunto no seu canal em português e posso te garantir que ele nunca tentou provar nada. Aliás, era tão cauteloso e equilibrado em suas ponderações, que muitos começaram a achar que ele estava defendendo o Hans Niemann. Ele só mudou o tom e começou a fazer declarações mais ousadas quando encontrou evidências que dessem suporte a essas desconfianças. Se tem alguém insuspeito de querer acusar gratuitamente o Hans Niemann é ele.

[@hudsonmoraes1261]

Eu diria até que ele estava torcendo para que o Hans Niemann fosse inocente. Se convenceu do contrário. Pode ter errado. Mas não havia interesse prévio em condenar o Hans Niemann. Ele estava em busca da verdade.

[@mstefa007]

@@matthewspears3786 Regan does it so well, even admitted cheaters come out clean in his analysis

[@nicorobin14]

everytime hikaru says "I'm no data scientist" you take a shot

[@Kyomaku]

Death

[@Lightexo]

Drunk already halfway

[@dannygjk]

I'm trying to drink in moderation ok?!

[@Just_a-guy]

Around 15min he said this like 5 times in a minute. This is "you are going to sleep drunk" game for me

[@robertojsilva4307]

So we're all like Sonny Corleone now

[@dontlistentoanythingisay]

He should get that guy in a call and let him explain the graphs and numbers to Hikaru using his own games

[@GAMEKING51]

You don't need to be a data scientist to read a graph Hikaru 😂

[@danielumisedo2986]

You don't need a degree to read a graph, but telling if data is reliable requires some practice.

[@Tizohip]

Sim. 🤣

[@donmuller6509]

Thats the cover he uses to PRETEND he is NOT a Data Scientist, which we all know he must be. He defends not being a Data Scientists MORE than Hans Defends NOT being a cheater. Hikaru is BUSTED!

[@sillyking1991]

its not about reading the graph. its about properly interpreting the graph. terms like 'standard deviation' can be quite opaque.

[@Finger_Lock_]

Summary: Hans has consistently "inconsistent" play, with average of 2500 rating. That means the quality of his games and moves varies greatly but hasn't improved in 5+ years (he was equally strong from 14yo/2300 - 19yo/2600 rated). At 2300, just like now at 2600, he consistently played games where he played some moves as if he would be 2800 rated and others like 2400, which is a very uncommon level of variance of quality at that level of rating. That really is very suspicious and it seems to be, compared to normal progress, highly statistically significant and odd.

[@user-bj7um9uj6r]

Hans not stupid to make it obvious, of course he need to play fake to cheat successfully, he knows people will compare stockfish with his play. Probably he had paid a programmer to make an engine that is extremely strong. It has a 3300+ ELO rating making it unbeatable against any human chess player. The engine may be tuned downward to as low as 1500 ELO. Varying engine strength between low and high gives the appearance of natural human play.

[@szalaytamas3184]

@@user-bj7um9uj6r that's seems totally bulkshit :D programmers jsut doensot build enginees like form nothing. I think it's something machine learning stuff Anyway people like to think they are smart and their opinion is great. Nvm :D

[@marthflores3515]

@@m0n4rch911 righht mans just said "He paid a programmer" lmao if it were that easy

[@georgehenrique2560]

I think, Lan, it's more than that: during the games he plays as a 2500 player. Almost any game. The point is that he finds some moves much above that level. That's why the centipawn variation is the best to check a cheating. Rafa (the data scientist) has made a regular comparation that wasn't looking for centipawn loss, but variations per game. In that case, Hans looks regular. You got that? He cheated only in a few games and moves.

[@Finger_Lock_]

My suspicion is that he is somehow using an already made engine set to a certain strength, or another form of a hint that he has a great move to find on the board. He would only use a few suggested moves in critical situations in select games. Due to standard deviation his real rating would probably be a bit higher than the minimum performance of 2300, but defenitely below 2500. When he uses a few engine hints his play spikes to 2800. That is how I would interpret the given analysis.

[@Kpucin0]

Hans mention Hikaru 1 time in interview Hikaru : so you have chosen death

[@ricardodossantos1642]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@selectedsound.]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@jackiemoon1556]

Lol

[@M73342]

Should get top likes

[@Alexandraa1515]

Eu esperava por isso, Rafa merece essa visibilidade, acompanho ele há anos, fico feliz por ele e por todo esse trabalho que ele fez 🤗

[@hanscamaleone2924]

Eu também ❤

[@bekanav]

IMO quite solid study. Big data, clear correlations (as expected for fair players) and good comparisons between players and their development. What explains abnormal numbers of Hans? Could it be he plays most parts of the games by himself, at 2300-2500 level and gets engine help in critical times to win? Then his rating goes up and he becomes a super GM while his average CPL is still at mediocre level. It seems like Hans doesn't use engine moves enough or he is too weak player to cheat unnoticeable way.

[@astrovation3281]

i love the chat of all those 'developers', 'programmers' and 'data scientists' giving some real valuable input.

[@oraz.]

Computer scientist here, let me explain..

[@trevor3928]

2 things I’ve learned from this video… 1. Hans cheated. 2. Hikaru is not a data scientist.

[@ZDarabos]

Magnus is so amazing to call all of this just by playing with Hans. Shows why he is the world champion.

[@dudeabides23]

You don't think Magnus has even better statistical analysis than this? I don't think he knows just from playing.

[@platonfoucault1087]

From day one I trusted Magnus, GM and IM realize quickly these things….Let alone the WC who played the Niemann during summer

[@fihalhohi5353]

​ @DudeAbides i think on the contrary, imagine a field where you're an absolute expert in, you see something and know that things are off but in order to explain that, you would have to communicate 20 years of experience in your argument. it's more likely that he just figured out he's not at champion level, e.g. in games where he didn't cheat. then not being able to explain his moves probably comes on top.

[@sub-harmonik]

I mean magnus was not the only one in the gm club who had suspicions it seems.

[@dudeabides23]

@@fihalhohi5353 I agree that he had intuition but without these statistics it can be interpreted as sour grapes. He needed these facts to bolster the case

[@rodrigopicos8834]

Great job from Rafa Leite gathering every data and showing it to the world in an easy way to understand!!!

[@sharonjuniorchess]

The table @8:57 shows the expected ACPL (average centipawn loss) score for the different ELO scores. So as a player gets better and improves their ELO their average centipawn loss should get smaller. The analysis for Gukesh @10:39 seems to support this theory as his average CP loss gradually falls from 31.19 @ 2300 to 22.54 @ 2600 whereas the analysis for Hans @13.29 looks more like a straight line with 26.91 @ 2300 to 25.44 @ 2600. This anomaly is made all the more clearer in the second video where he analyses a group of players who all show the expected results within around 90+% correlation whereas Hans exhibits a low correlation after 2018 in his data. Which suggest something odd is going on.

[@tyrannusrex31]

I do find Hans to be suspicious and I think there’s substance to claims that his play is wildly inconsistent, but there’s an explanation for ACPL deviations at each tier of ELO, and that’s based on the sample size. To give you an example, I could play 40 games at 2300 ELO, climb to 2400 ELO, and play the next 160 games trying to climb without improving my play, or even playing worse. My ACPL would be higher for a period of time, possibly knocking me back to 2300 ELO, where my play would be challenged less and my ACPL would improve. This explains why ACPL can decrease as ELO increases due to sample size. Likewise, Hans doesn’t have a very large sample size since becoming 2700, so any data representing that play would be relatively skewed. He could play a dozen games at 2700 with an outlandish 16 ACPL and his fans would be claiming he’s the best player in the world. To be fair, he’s nowhere close to it, and that’s what this data actually represents. The fact that Hans has a STDCPL of 47 or more is alarmingly bad considering the success that he has had. There are games in his database where he played in the 1200-1800 range. In other words, he has played like an average player, not an average GM. What’s even more alarming is that we know he has games in this database where his engine correlation is 100%. So if he has games with presumably 0 ACPL, why are his ACPL and STDCPL still so high?

[@GIOVANNISEQUANI]

@

[@markfidelix]

@@tyrannusrex31 because its an average, 1 game doesnt say much. Plus: this metric seems more trustworthy than engine correlation because it doesnt matter which engine you use as long as youre using the same engine for everybody ur analysing. In engine correlation the engine the cheater might be using seems to matter much much more

[@Habdabi]

Yep this is some top tier analysis and needs more votes. In addition to the above, if you combine it with the analysis at @4:20 and @6:09, if you look at the distribution of the data points, accounting for the Lagrangian transformation, it clearly indicates, within the moves, without a shadow of doubt, and a high degree of certainty, that indeed the chess speaks for itself.

[@feeadftth]

@@tyrannusrex31 To be fair, the fact that he has games with 100% engine correlation hurts STDCPL because it's still a deviation from the "natural average" that would emerge if he was legit. As i suspected weeks ago, data scientists would eventually come and find huge irregularities in the stats. At this point i think it's barely possible to find a smidge of doubt in the matter. He's cheating and has been cheating for many years. Chess is at risk.

[@ken_thatswild]

If anyone was wondering, Hikaru is not a data scientist. Hope I can make that even more clear.

[@captainzork6109]

But how can you know for sure?

[@cobalius]

Yrah i've also some doubts about it. The way he asked about the red numbers made me suspicious

[@Jeffrey_Tyler]

Not only is he not a data scientist, he doesn't know.

[@jadendobbs]

Don't we all gather here and watch because he's a data scientist? I feel betrayed that he's been lying this whole time.

[@snoozy04]

I think he mentioned it like 9 times, but what do I know, I'm not a data scientist.

[@effmus]

Drinking game: a shot every time you listen “I'm not a data scientist” from Nakamura

[@noitsholly]

Drinking game: a shot every time you see a comment talking about Hikaru being a data scientist

[@dominicpirola8240]

Are you Tryna kill someone?

[@christopherweaver5904]

Let’s play a drinking game . Every time hikaru says he’s not a data scientist let’s take a shot

[@dudeabides23]

No way. Ever hear of alcohol poisoning? 😂

[@sylver76]

Still alive?

[@rhaeldantas2218]

I didgqh tgat.., noyt feellibcg wellnml

[@otomagalhaes3242]

He's done a fantastic work! The data is the same for every grand Master ELO 2700 but Hans Nieman. Something is odd about his ELO raising.

[@elymuitoloko]

O vídeo q eu esperava do Hikaru!!!!!!! Parabéns Rafel Milk pelo ótimo trabalho! Ele chegou ao conhecimento de quem eu estava torcendo q chegasse 😆

[@diegorocha2186]

Faltou colocar os gráficos do Nakamura no video, fique esperando por isso!!! kkkk

[@KennethAHansen]

I would love to see ACPL and STCPL on those that has been caught cheating and if those stats correlate with Niemann's stats..!

[@kloaf1131]

This is really the other data we need. I know he states he's a cheater. But the data suggest like many he's an outlier. Not necessarily a cheater. But if he fits a pattern of known cheaters it would be even more damning.

[@sylver76]

@@kloaf1131 An outlier,, but not in the sense of being an exceptionaly good player, but in the sense that he plays with a comparatively low accuracy, his accuracy doesn't improve, and yet he keeps gaining rating.

[@kloaf1131]

@@sylver76 very likely possibility. But outliers themselves do not indicate cheating which is important to remember. I am leaning on the he cheated side myself but you always have to have an open mind it's not the only possibility.

[@hamzaprince5754]

this analyse may be one of the best that been released in this drama, if it really has a solid fondation and been approuved it will be great, because it shows how humans tend to play at the different levels, and even if someone trie to cheat without playing all engine moves he can t mimic the tendency of play of certain level in a long run.

[@Monika77ful]

I agree this analysis is great. But I have a way of cheating that cannot be detected this way: 1. I want to be a 2200 player so I look for someone with elo 2200 and let him play for me. After a while I need to do this with a 2300 rated player then 2400 and so on. I just wanted to show how you can always cheat if you are motivated enough, have the resources, the accomplices and know the method in how a cheater is cought.

[@BigFatSandwitch]

He legit looked scared to accept anything in this video. Complete opposite of what he did while watching video of that french girl. But TBH this data analysis was insane. Hans is definitely an outlier

[@Jartran72]

Outright liar*

[@nasvsan6191]

He doesn't understand the data only the comparisons of other players which the french guy had

[@tonysu8860]

I would ask... An outlier to whom? And is being an outlier really a condemnation or actually what sets a person's potential different than those around him?

[@ConvergeLeague]

Hikaru doesnt understand that the data set is not that complicated for a computer to analyze (number to big)... later on he even mention that other people can double check the findings, because like mentioned 200 times, he is not a data scientist xD (but ye not complicated set of data to analyze using the described method)

[@oraz.]

The French thing was pathological. If a regular guy named Robert pretended to be statistically conclusive like that he'd be seen as fake immediately.

[@Atlas-Shrugs]

I bet if Hikaru watched the videos as much as he watched the chat he'd understand what's in the video, even though he's not a data scientist(so I'm told). It's being shown and explained.

[@trevoroldham2195]

True, Hikaru talks too fast and he always looks like a fool because of it.

[@Jeffrey_Tyler]

Almost every question he asks the chat is either explained in the video, or something that the chat isn't qualified to be answering.

[@BRAOSGEELR]

Hikarus lack of education really shows here...

[@NathanLipetz]

@@Jeffrey_Tyler ya

[@NathanLipetz]

exactly, was thinking the same! This video actually does a really good job of explaining what he is trying to prove

[@gabrielpavesi9423]

So proud of you, Milky Boy!! Congratulations for this beautiful work!

[@liamharper465]

I really want to see you grab Levi and do some matches where he's allowed to use an engine on 2 moves throughout the game. Just to see how much more difficult it makes it. Obviously not the same as Hans v Magnus but might be an easy sort of way to put to the test that theory that someone might be able to jump 300 rating points with a small amount of engine assistance.

[@wesley4125]

This is an excellent idea

[@asiamies9153]

2 moves would not be enough :D

[@fndTenorio]

Edit: Yes, centipawn loss has a strong enough signal to detect anomalies, but it is not so simple. You need to discard opening moves and "already lost" types of positions. Also, the higher the rating and the smaller the rating difference, the better. This all checks for GM level, so you can build a model to predict ELO range from moves (I say range because you should also provide a standard deviation for your prediction). There was a Kaggle competition many years ago, my model got third place (I was lazy so I didn't use external data). You can also inject move heuristics, which would improve the model a lot. What is missing is to investigate Hans avg. cp loss AT CRITICAL POSITIONS. If his cp loss at critical positions says he is 2700, but the cp loss at 'normal' positions says he is ~2500..well...there is something very wrong.

[@jackiemoon1556]

Yeah thats what i was thinking, all this is a beyond my math level but after it was explained to me that was the same thought i had.

[@rachidvanheyningen]

Exactly

[@hashkenhabib]

The critical positions could be labeled by GMs to build a good training set for what s critical position is.

[@aquatazer]

This is something that FIDE and other large chess orgs. should look at, because it would be absolutely ridiculous for a single person to run through hundreds, if not thousands of games, to determine what counts as a “critical position.” Thankfully, the graphs that this analyst made were clearly defined and could be made simply from using the program. Individually looking through each game for a critical position would drive any single person insane.

[@agilagilsen8714]

He made a new video with other people included. Hans has an average CP loss to indicate that he is a 2500player. Which should make it basically impossible for him to reach 2700.

[@hrvojelasic5794]

this guy's method is legit.

[@wesleynascimento744]

Parabéns pelo vídeo Rafa, análise fantástica

[@akademikbirey6673]

This is the closest thing to a "proof" in a case like this.

[@abhir7823]

To be fair... Hikaru 'I am not a Data Scientist' Nakamura is trying his best to understand the data science

[@wooshbait36]

🫳🌿

[@agilagilsen8714]

There is absolutely no need to use every engine. It’s basically just a statistical analysis. He uses the strongest engine available to him and then you calculate the difference from that and use it for everyone equally. There is no need to use more than 1 chess engine as long as you apply it equally to everyone. What’s important is the average points lost. You would expect it to be similar for everyone, and as he concludes in his latest video, we see that there is a very similar trajectory for everyone, people gradually gets better at chess, insane. But then there is Hans, a guy who had a magic jump in chess ability, and then has maintained a level of play consistent with a 2500rated player but somehow has converted that play into 2700rating. It’s suspect as all hell. It’s time to ban Hans.

[@dutchraider2]

Exactly. If you use a different engine, it will calculate a different centipawn for every move, sure, but this deviation is consistent along all the different moves, so it'll cancel out eventually. It's like using the degrees celcius system to measure someone's temperature, or use the fahrenheit system. Regardless of the number that comes out, you can conclude on this number if someone has a fever or not. In Hans's case, taking his temperature showed that he's a dead corpse, regardless of the engine used. Just like his carreer should be.

[@MsUncleKevin]

just cry more

[@ixinor]

In either case Hans is still a cheater.

[@lebronjamesharden3958]

you are babying Magnus too much goddamn these fanbois can't handle their god crying on his dads lap

[@qbb01]

Yeah, this is pretty damning evidence.

[@Derysss]

Great to see you showing Rafael Leite's work! Greetings from Brazil!

[@lynk_1240]

14:00 The standard deviation is different yes. The height of the standard deviation on this graph indicates how consistent Hans's games were. Basically, the graph is indicating that his moves are just as consistent (or inconsistent) regardless of his rating. This can happen if either: 1) he has always played at his current level and it has just taken a long time for his rating to catch up to his playing ability, or 2) he has been throwing in the same number of cheating moves and 'bad' moves to avoid detection the whole time.

[@brasileirosim5961]

It is very normal to a 2700 play player to play with an estimated rating of 2500…if he is using an engine for make decisions about the key positions. Hans is cheating regularly. He did it regularly online, he works with a guy who cheated regularly online, and he is cheating regularly OTB. Everything about Hans’ games is highly suspicious. I am sure he was cheating in a way to be not detected by the usual cheating detectives, but he wasn’t prepared to this kind if investigation. His career is over.

[@user-mj3gi6zf7i]

Yeah, the Game is close to be OVER. No doubts about that.

[@raylax7056]

not OTB though ..... what the dude should've done is discriminated between online and OTB to point out the differential

[@alexobed4252]

I think that’s the best point: that cheaters don’t ever expect the entirety of their “work” (cough: cheating) to be analyzed. That’s a horrible thing unless you’re clean.

[@jefft5854]

That is consistent with the analysis that Fabi made on a few Hans's games: there can be a mix of insanely good and very average moves or move sequences within the same games. However the question remains whether there are other 2700 and + players who have shown the same inconsistency as Hans.

[@MrSupernova111]

There aren't that many 2700 players. Should be easy to run an analysis with same methodology on the games with elo rating above 2200 for all players rated above 2700.

[@timwilson7326]

I think some countries use commas instead of periods and vice versa - when writing numbers

[@garp9433]

I’m a senior data scientist. The most convincing statistical arguments are the Bayesian modes alluded to by Danny Rensch. Not centipawns, but this is well done

[@oraz.]

Where are they described?

[@Jeffrey_Tyler]

Hikaru "I'm not a data scientist" Nakamura

[@BasicPokemon]

I think you're seeing it wrong, hans isn't playing like a 2500, he's playing like a 2300 that's cheating, when he cheats he's 2800, when he doesn't he's 2300 where he belongs. this gets averaged down to 2500~ if the standard deviation is 50 then hans is playing 2300 half the time and 2800 the other half. if it's higher than 50, hans is playing like a 2200 that cheats at the 2800 lvl.

[@JuniorDuraes]

Isto está errado, ele correlaciona com a precisão por rating, por isso ele tem 2500, é pela análise da precisão dele que está na média dos 2500 de rating dos jogadores em geral.

[@ritesh2raj]

Also the standard deviation between moves is inconsistent probably because he is intentionally playing bad/sub optimal moves in between to not make the cheating obvious

[@user-vw5dh9ml1w]

But are you a data scientist

[@macroman52]

@@ritesh2raj That theory makes it difficult for him to clear his name. When he plays well, he's cheating. When he plays badly his is hiding the fact that he cheats. "If they run they are a Viet Cong. If they don't run they are well discipled Viet Cong." - Full Metal Jacket.

[@georgehenrique2560]

I don't think so, Basic. Because you're doing a simple comparation. Rafa (the data scientist) has made this type of comparation (game per game) and found out that Hanns was regular. But when you compare MOVE PER MOVE, Hans looks VERY irregular. So he cheat in a few moves, that are not detetacble in the game as a whole.

[@prisleysilva]

Primeiramente, estou orgulhoso do Rafa Milk, segundamente, estou na dúvida se o Naka é um cientista de dados ou não.

[@RodrigoMendes-bd3bp]

Incredible work done by Rafael, this is by far the clearest evidence of the mysterious Han's performance in recent years. I also hope that people interested in this data will double-check or find any other good evidence using data from previous games like Rafael did. Congratulations

[@allanpazelli6524]

Rafa Milk no canal do Naka! Voa Xadrez Brasil!

[@ROCKEMSOCKEM51]

Hikaru should really release a data science lecture series. His expertise is simply unmatched when it comes to this topic.

[@2ndintelligentWorld]

best one so far

[@NathanHedglin]

Eh

[@severus8443]

Hikaru so afraid of Hans sending lawyers to his door hahaha

[@daring8002]

That aged well.

[@christopherevelyn6140]

It seems like the problem is that ELO is being treated as a continuous variable when it is actually a categorical variable. So some other test for multiple comparisons, such as a Tukey test, should be more appropriate for comparing CPL and StDev values relative to ELO than a Pearson Correlation.

[@susbedo9258]

The huge standard deviations and the flat line clearly indicates the following: 1. Hans cheats more frequently when playing against higher rank players 2. His average performance is not of a level of 2700-2800 ELO player. He reduces the risk of getting caught by not cheating when playing with lower rank players. 3. It can also be explained that he doesn't necessarily uses the cheat/assistance always, but only during critical positions or situations. 4. Ken Regan's model is extremely flawed and cannot catch cheating when it is only utilised during critical moves.

[@Monika77ful]

Nice.

[@user-mj3gi6zf7i]

Very good points. So true.

[@cheetah219]

A lot of work is being put into numbers and statistics...but the issue is nobody is doing true statistical analysis. They're comparing a players to themselves as opposed to A/B testing, chi square, etc. Essentially they need to answer thr questions Hikaru had been asking for weeks. How does Hans compare to the average and to other players and how often are the players outside of this. Nobody has done this yet. There are good trends and whatnot being built on how Hans career is different than other players. Yosha and gambitman tried to prove that specific games Hans played are unusual compared to other GMs according to many modern engines What I think these statisticians need to do is compare all 2600 and 2700+ GMs to each other and to Hans using engines that were know at the time he played. Everyone is using modern engines which doesn't make sense in 2019 or 2020 where those engines wouldn't have existed. Hans claims he's a super GM and he's at least a 2600 players compare him against his peers. The metrics to use have been developed so now it's kind of putting it all together so build a story of 1) is Hans career unusual compared to other GMs 2) is Hans a consistent GM level player compared to other GMs 3) how has Hans played in the last one year compared to GMs (before sinquefield cup) 4) is there a concrete different between his online play and OTB play compared to other GMs And there are a few other questions to answer but this is all to prove but if someone can show Hans has a very different online gameplay compared to OTB that's big. And he really needs to be compared to all other GMs, i still see cherry picking

[@Absolute-Melody]

It kinda hurts watching Hikaru react to this and not understand…

[@Dyoguu]

I felt the same

[@snoozy04]

I'm not sure what you mean, I'm not a data scientist.

[@kyle3407]

he's a heck of a chess player tho

[@Monika77ful]

I am not surprised. Like any other worldclass proffesinal athlet he didn't have the time to get the greatest education and he doesn't need it. The day just has 24 hours and you can only do so much. Compared to other athlets (Kyre, Messi, Boris Becker....) he realy looks very well educated.

[@ilrompiballedegliubi465]

Some concepts are high school level in my country and it hurts to see him not understand, for example line of best fit

[@mglegacy012]

Would be great if someone did some statistical analysis on these correlations (maybe I missed it). Visually it looks compelling but would love to see some p values in there. Maybe an analysis for the top 20 juniors and top 20 adults would be sufficient, because right now Hans is an outlier and it would be nice to see how often that kind of outlier exists

[@guilhermefreitas9602]

Yeah definitely. I don't see an error in this analysis but who knows if something is being overlooked. It'd be nice to have a bigger sample to confirm the conclusion

[@tonysu8860]

Unfortunately, correlation is only that... correlation. It has no ability to prove causation which is what we need to see on such things as accusations of cheating. Correlation can only suggest a line of investigation to find a better truth that supercedes what was known before but in no way is correlation by itself anything more than circumstantial evidence.

[@RiccardoPazzi]

Also I don't get the way he decided to present the data: why use only four or five ratings to calculate a trend? He keeps saying there's a linear correspondence and to me with so little ratings it's hard to say, it doesn't look linear in many occasions. For sure Niemann's data looks odd but I think the presented graphs were simply bad, I don't know his background but it doesn't look like a thorough analysis to me. Maybe I'm missing something

[@peceed]

@@RiccardoPazzi It is linear by *assumption*, thats why it is called linear regression. In essence - we assume that real values are linear and we sample them (measured data) with random error. In reality they are never a lines, but smooth curves. Line is an approximation.

[@RiccardoPazzi]

@@peceed I know what linear regression is. I also get that he wants the viewer to look at the line and see it goes down to make it simple, but saying it's linear by assumption kinda defeats the purpose of data analysis. Maybe there's a better curve that also fits Hans much better. I'm not saying the conclusion of the analysis is wrong, I'm saying the analysis doesn't look robust, at least from what he presented in the video.

[@Nefertum_CZ]

i understanded these data and they are pretty clean :)) Han's STCPL 48 with 2600 raiting (is higher) and Han's Standard deviation CPL 46 (lower!) with rating 2300 is just brutal.. and his ACPL seems to be the same around 25 since 2300 elo to today.

[@plagiats]

Spends life in front of chessboard. Calls columns "rows".

[@pudimdecana51]

LOL 😂😂😂

[@yashtidke2002]

Hikaru has some good naration skills, this scandal attracted more subscribers to this channel and is really addictive when he narrates various themes of Hans drama.

[@Account-ms3zg]

Agreed he's really great

[@Dog2077]

I'd like to see Vasyl Ivanchuk's average centipawn loss for his games from like 2005-2007 when he reached his peak rating. He was nearly 2800 but because of his style I'd bet he had a very high centipawn loss not in line with the other players during that time.

[@toddpdroneworks563]

Perhaps but he was still able to explain his moves, great or awful, in post match interviews.

[@Dog2077]

@@toddpdroneworks563 100%. I don't doubt Hanz has been cheating otb because of all the other circumstances, but I'm just curious if we could find another player with similar statistics to know how anomalous Hans's data points are.

[@viniciusmelo7418]

you can make it, download the script and run with his data

[@jakkihessing2986]

Please analyse other known cheaters! See if their math looks like Hans Niemanns.

[@Davesoft]

17:00 So far the graph tells me that for a specific period of time Hans effectively become someone else, then returned to his more predicted self after that, and by period of time I mean his elo rating. It doesn't look like he cheats every game, but it's certain that he does cheat some games, or at least hands the mouse to someone else. 31:00 There's a little anomoly on the graph before it becomes steady, almost like the kid had a bad spell, then back on form, then another bad spell, and then solidified. 34:00 Now that graph tells a story. A middling player forgot how to play, then touched divinity, then returned to middling, then touched divinity again, then steady state, then another jump later, and back to steady state. It's like he isn't actually incrementally improving, it's like he has breakthroughs then stagnates, then another breakthrough, then stagnate. Interesting.

[@2DarkHorizon]

Actually there are two periods in hans life in the last 4 years where he took nearly a whole year break from playing. This could explain the strange numbers. Then in the last 2 years he plays 3 times more games than he did in the previous 2 years. Han has very inconsistent behavour towards playing maybe the reason why inconsistent numbers.

[@Davesoft]

@@2DarkHorizon Certainly an odd fellow. Part of me hopes he's cheating, the alternative is that a chunk of his brain is running stockfish, and it's clearly not helping his mood.

[@2DarkHorizon]

@@Davesoft Your right his whole life is odd. Never consistent. Plays strange, thinks strange,. Maybe thats why he is an outliner.

[@Ruhan885]

@@2DarkHorizon that is not how it works. A strange personality doesn't mean anything for progression

[@2DarkHorizon]

@@Ruhan885 I mentioned facts in games played that affects progression.

[@gladosadoree]

"The roast of Hans" continues. :) Loving it!

[@MrRop-yp3wt]

L

[@kicozaninetti]

You should invite him to an interview to explain you best this analisis

[@wikitxp]

after watching this video i ask myself: what happens if hikaru is actually a data scientist?