Down, Then Up, Up & Away | Larry Williams Special Presentation (09.09.22)

[@rrachel779]

I'm like thousands of other traders and non-traders too, I'm sure, we just get happy when you post , Larry. TY!! S & P is right now uncanny in its current following of your seasonal forecast. As too, following your cycle forecasts. Moving into the heart of the potential continued down move in the S&P etc. Staying nimble. Stops aplenty. Proud to have you has my teacher. Keep posting, Larry. Keep digging deep. The world needs you and your wisdom. Its just that simple.

[@jimmeyer9648]

Larry -your. the greatest! Humble man with great sense of humor and best technical analyst ever! Keep great work.

[@kevinpyne24]

I was just thinking this week, "I betcha Larry has got some things to say about this recent downmove. I could use some more of his great reassurances and wisdom" Thank you so much, Larry!

[@ireallytrade1]

stay tuned... for the october SC forum

[@BishopofBattle1]

Larry thank you for your ongoing sharing of market cycles and market analysis. You are a beacon in a world of over information and mis-information. Back to the Future indeed!

[@old1gotpsi14]

I appreciate all the work, that mr Williams constantly performing for himself and for us! Thank You, Larry! Youre the greatest teacher for me, after my bad and good experience ))

[@richardprice3363]

Always the "go to". Larry is in a class by himself.

[@jobear1]

Larry, the legend

[@inna.rosputnia]

Larry, you are the greatest source of wisdom.

[@ireallytrade1]

only if i am correct!

[@jamesmax5317]

i guess we got our answer dow -1275 spx-175 nsdx-800 Consumer prices rose 8.3% last month, holding near a four-decade high despite lower gasoline prices. The index rose 0.1% on the month. Core prices, stripping out energy and food costs, increased 6.3%, up sharply from July.

[@ireallytrade1]

most interesting point is the ROC of inflation was------------down-----mass media mongrels missed that

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

Yep! There is that end of September sell signal.

[@favin86]

Larry, when is the new video coming?

[@StockChartsTV]

His new video airs on our site Wednesday, Oct. 12th at 9am ET. It will be posted to KZbin after. stockcharts.com/tv/

[@ireallytrade1]

IM ALSO DOING ONENEXT WEEK

[@jaredsiddle9609]

Always great to hear Larry’s wise words of wisdom of the future

[@favin86]

Thank you, Mr. Williams, for your valuable time.

[@javamochafrap]

Wow. You called the temporary top days before it happened on Sept 12th! You are a genius.

[@ilovetrading5176]

Larry - thank you again for such a useful and timely presentation. You truly are a blessing to retail traders all over the world.

[@mvcchief4787]

You called it Larry!!! “Stocks will go down in Mid September” 😲

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

He sure did call it but what would next week look like?

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

This video is informative! I even rewatch it multiple times. You nailed it again Larry! What is your forecast for the week of September 30, 2022?

[@ireallytrade1]

little lower stull approaching the buy point

[@haroldzabrowski8264]

Larry, do you still feel confident in this trade? What are your technicals showing? The weekly shows a giant engulfing candle with RSI rolling over implying down. Also, broke short-term trend and failed support at 3900. Last minute of trading Friday was extremely strong to downside. Wednesday will obviously be a huge day.

[@ireallytrade1]

the trade is the trade ---- my idea of down seems to be working --- late sept into October time to go up

[@haroldzabrowski8264]

@@ireallytrade1 I am loaded up short sir! 🙂

[@haroldzabrowski8264]

@@ireallytrade1 And by the way, thanks for your time and efforts!

[@aluchatri3402]

What did you load up? Puts/shorts or calls/longs ?

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

@@ireallytrade1 That time is due now lol!

[@zinc1024]

The big "down" started a few trading days early. Though another round is due per the most likely Elliot Wave model, and Larry's suggested trade is very likely to be quite profitable this year.

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

It did indeed start early. I think we can find a September low very soon like sometime next week since the selloff started about a week early and should rally after FOMC meeting. Larry’s model and historic charts should show the June lows holding.

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

End of October is also the busy earnings week. Do you expect positive results from big tech like AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN Larry? If that’s when stocks start going up it must be positive.

[@ericgoldstein8863]

Hi Larry- with the S&p500 now at 3600 and QQQ at 271, is your SELL Rosh Hashanah, BUY Yom Kippur (next week) model still holding? It seems like we’re pretty well oversold now and ready for a big rally (or maybe a washout soon and then a big rally)

[@kaykang5551]

Wow. Larry Williams is the genious! I am reading your book now!!

[@nzfilm345]

great trade Larry - however at the beginning of the video you are talking about SELLING ON the 12 trading day of September, and later you are talking 3-4 times about trading once there are 12 trading days left in September - which one is it ? Counting your days on the charts it seems to be to SELL on the 12th trading day of September - still confusing - please clarify

[@ireallytrade1]

12th trdimg day of the month my apologies for the confusion

[@soundscapereality4918]

The only reason I follow this channel is for Larry’s presentations lol

[@jimmeyer9648]

Me too

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

Same!

[@AvitorMike]

Larry, thank you!! Cycle data showing June up turn, mid AUG down turn, and 12Sept Trade idea was all legendary and given prior to the action. WOW!! Now I'm looking forward to the end of Sept and the StockCharts event in Oct. Please post more.

[@haroldzabrowski8264]

Not 12 Sept, but the 12th trading day of September. That would be the 19th...Monday.

[@gmoneyslowdance5510]

@@haroldzabrowski8264 what's supposed to happen. Red or green?

[@braddavis6]

Mr. Williams, this content was impressive when you first posted in early September. Reviewing the material today (end of September), your accuracy and clarity of thought are shockingly good. Wow. Thank you. Do you offer the Williams Valuation Index for VantagePoint, please?

[@torsnewbie249]

Larry this is an incredible webinar and I thank you and Stock Charts for it. Wow, what an eye opener. Kudos to you, Larry.

[@ireallytrade1]

glad you enjoyed it and thank you for such kind comments

[@cs-kc7zp]

Great video - Thanks Larry. My question is on your $2200 stop loss. what is that based on? If thats on the SP500 futures contract at $250 a point so thats around 9 points - does that mean I place my stop 9 points above my entry, So if I sell short at say 3880 (does that mean my stop is at 3889, which would seem very close). If the $2200 stop is on the emini then thats about 44 points, so if I short at 3880 my stop would be at 3924. Is one of these correct and is that what you meant? or if not how many points away should my stop be based on your $2200 stop loss? Thanks in advance

[@vladdytubetv]

always lots of interesting information, thank you mr. Larry

[@ireallytrade1]

my pleasure---and joy!

[@samangeles1846]

I love these Larry Williams updates!

[@lenalaberge8256]

Thank you Larry for the very informative and entertaining show. Worth the watch.

[@jamesmax5317]

current sp @9/9 close is 4067 which is about 60pts above the 100daymvavg.no doubt we were in an oversold cond. late aug.early sept we shall see what happens when the current cpi is announced .where is my crystal ball when its needed

[@ls40095]

Sept 30…time to buy..Larry, the S&P oscillator is -11…Nailed it again!

[@ls40095]

@Valued Time S&P……

[@josephthomas392]

Thanks Larry for sharing the future.

[@seventh7orbit]

A couple decades ago I spent U$300 for a couple of Larry's videos on the topic of commodities investing. It was way over my head, and I gained nothing from it. So I feel like I'm finally getting some value for my money with these StockCharts lessons from Larry. Many thanks.

[@ireallytrade1]

thanks for the note---glad we are both still here!

[@dineshlakhani7663]

Larry, you are 100% right! 1st Oct :) VIX is coming down. Now, the question is how long this rally is going to last? Is this actual setup for new bull market or last drop of the bear market ?

[@ireallytrade1]

it's time will do a show net monday

[@dineshlakhani7663]

​@@ireallytrade1 Thanks Larry.

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

Seems like it’s short lived after Friday’s action. The true bear market bottom should come in like 2 weeks (should be more like a double bottom) From there a new bull market cycle should start according to Larry’s historical charts.

[@blue-fj9ky]

Thanks, Larry! I've been following your work since before your famous daughter was born. I'm sure you're very proud of her! I subscribe to your yearly forecast and really enjoy it.

[@ireallytrade1]

thank you thats along time following!

[@blue-fj9ky]

@@ireallytrade1 Indeed it is. Before the internet running Super Charts! I took the seasonal trade. Exited with a nice profit caught that huge downdraft perfectly. Thanks Larry!

[@johnfer7703]

Hello Larry, Thank you for sharing. Please excuse my slow learning, I still get a little confused at these stats, I used to get your monthly newsletter. So to the be real clear, it was selling on the 12th trading day (09.16.22) and holding for two consecutive plus the first profitable open correct. The profit potential is based on 1 emini s&p contract? So according to what actually happened the profit was based on getting out on the open of the 21st($1200 profit ) or at the close of the 21($ 5275 profit). Is this correct?

[@joec1545]

Once again, you exceed expectations Larry. I love how excited you are when presenting, it is infectious:) You are the best, hands down!!!!

[@Sean.Curran]

Hi, I just saw Cramer present your chart ... the same one you provided us ~3-4wks ago, forecasting the low late-Sep early-Oct. However now the chart shows the low mid-Oct and again late-Oct instead of late-Sep and early-Oct. Has the forecast changed? If so, how do we keep up with the "latest".

[@ireallytrade1]

that was the seasonal of the es on Mad Money not a Cyle forecast

[@Sean.Curran]

@@ireallytrade1 Ah, thanks for clarifying!

[@bnato8209]

Got stopped out of the trade in Globex last night. Hit the 44 handle stop by a 9 ticks and reversed to wouldbe profits today. Initiated strat globex open sunday night and my plan was the 2 day hold. Was in some profits yesterday but didn't take any because that was day zero. I should have used the chart structure to determine my stop loss which would have been higher at 3950 instead of 3934 stop. Live and learn.

[@CaptainJimJames]

Thank you Larry for your time and ability to lay everything out for the cheap seats. Had a friend that follows you, Redfyre, turn me on. Never stop.

[@ireallytrade1]

what else does an 80 year old guy have to do? ;-}

[@HesAPooka]

Hi Larry, in your your opinion do you think the June lows will hold?

[@ireallytrade1]

they should

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

@@ireallytrade1 What about now? We are much closer to June lows. We could maybe test lows without setting new lows and than start to go “Up, Up, And Away”

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

There is the up move. 5.5% in 2 days. So rally now and pull back in to mid October. Sounds like a higher low. Just wondering is a new low or higher low coming Larry?

[@ireallytrade1]

that would be ideal look for a pull back then a higher short term low ---and i will post on Monday i think as i will be in Seattle at StockCharts

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

@@ireallytrade1 Okay thanks

[@fxmosaad]

I hope you publish an updated version of your book trade stocks and commodities with the insiders, using new COT report formats

[@TheBetterVersionOfYou]

Larry, super interesting information, regarding your chart at 9:50, and the stock market being an indicator for inflation. If the fed is targeting 2% inflation. Looking at our Y axis would put us at about SPY 2800, is this correct?

[@ireallytrade1]

no relatiomnship on Y axis so no conclussions on that

[@ishjalal]

Thank you Larry for the valuable knowledge you share, but mostly thank you for taking the time to share - we know you don't have to! I've learned so much from you over the years. You are simply the best! Wishing you great health !

[@ireallytrade1]

thank you for such kind words

[@Renatrader10]

Thank you, Larry! I've learned a lot from you along the years, really appreciated. Long story short: Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur!

[@Renatrader10]

Exactly as expected! Bingo!

[@xrayeyes2023]

Got the short even it came before 12th TDOM. Thank you Larry!

[@krzysztofgraczewskii276]

Hi Larty I have a question regarding the wheat market we had a parabolic upward move and then downward move is this so-called fallen angel pattern? No increase in grain prices less inflation. THANK YOU 😀

[@ireallytrade1]

yes close to it suggests lower prices---current rally oeaks mid september

[@johnbassett5407]

Thank you Larry. Masterful as always.

[@Miliblock]

Thanks for the insight Larry! Highly appreciate it.

[@shortcalls17]

The lower inflation months rolling off will bring the YoY inflation numbers down towards the Feds 2% target. If not lower (or negative). It's just a matter of time. But just because the print is lower doesn't mean actual prices are. How will the Fed react if things like shelter, food and energy remaining elevated in terms of real prices? Will they keep raising rates to slow demand further?

[@ireallytrade1]

stocks set to rally as described dont overthink it

[@TraderK1836]

What a wonderful informative video Larry, your work is always original and thought provoking.

[@ericgoldstein8863]

Larry-would this expected upturn beginning in Oct apply to growth/speculative/high-beta stocks/QQQ too, or just S&P500/ DJIA?

[@ireallytrade1]

yes everything if i am right will go

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

Great video Larry! These charts give me a future view on inflation and the stock market.

[@mohamedhawary2328]

Thank you so much Larry. Please bring us one of those flying skate boards from the future :)

[@pedrosnj4838]

Thank you very much! Your videos are amazing!

[@aluchatri3402]

Hi Larry! I just re-watched your great video after yesterday’s brutal market action. I am curious if you think the higher than expected cpi changes some of the forecast (i.e. low by early oct than “up up and away”). Also I would think the dollar needs to ease for earnings forecast to stay in line however weaker dollar adds to inflation pressure. Would love to get your thoughts. Looking ffd to your answer. Thank you Mr Legend!

[@ireallytrade1]

the rate of change of the CPI is what matters it is topping out inflation in going away

[@minhnguyen4081]

Larry is an absolute treasure.

[@bronwenskye]

Brilliant presentation, as always your insights are greatly appreciated!

[@jerryturnuplarrysvolumecan2565]

Larry is the best.

[@pjshannon2509]

Another very educational presentation Larry - thanks for the update and your sage wisdom - Best to you and Louise!

[@ireallytrade1]

thank you and I will let Louise know w.out here we would never have these shows

[@mcgems754]

What is the accurate option trade recommended??

[@ireallytrade1]

sorry i am not an option guy

[@guitartutorhk6506]

Thanks Larry for such insight! Good health to you and take care

[@hiranthanandasena7300]

Thanks Larry! Was getting worried about stocks going down.

[@benedikt48]

Hey Larry, thanks for sharing your results relating to the 12th tdom of september! I've been looking closer into futures markets for half a year now, so far only demo trading. I gave the 12th tdom a chance after watching your video, my first future-live-trade. I guess I understood the time of entering the market wrong, so i entered when the bell rang and not right at the beginning of the day. Due to that, i had a hard time holding the position for 2 days. Nevertheless i took the exit with 100 $ Profit. Not much by any means, but it's a winner, yay! Thank you for very much for sharing pieces of your hard earned knowledge! Next year I get in earlier.

[@ballefire1403]

Thanks Larry for the insight! 08:15 when you say inflation comes down, stock market comes down. And now we are seeing inflation comes down, do we expect a bearish market coming soon/continuing? Given inflation at this level, it may take 1 year or longer for inflation to turn flat, and then go up again. Together with your previous videos, yield curve turned flat already and it can be indicating a recession in 10-35 months. Do you think the market color is red?

[@ireallytrade1]

no just thing inflation will drop and thats bullish for stocks--more later on your point

[@ballefire1403]

​@@ireallytrade1 thanks Larry, just want to clarify to see if I understand it correctly. Basically inflation is now coming down and its a bullish run for the market until the point, Fed decrease interest rate which indicates a recession is coming. This could be in 1 year time given the Fed interest rate expectation u mentioned before, started to decrease in 2023. How surprisingly this also aligned with your invested yield curves take 10-35 months before a recession.

[@carolmom1996]

Are we suppose to take midterm election into consideration?

[@sadanandkalasabail7503]

Nice to hear from you Larry. Will eagerly look forward to Chartcon.

[@sadanandkalasabail7503]

@Just Me Yes did like it and as usual learnt few more ideas from Larry during the talk

[@ruthlessluder]

Do you think market will sell off next thur and fri due to quadruple witching and max pain?

[@ireallytrade1]

no idea does it matter? We are in a bull market

[@jeromeelston1092]

Thanks Larry. Found this very interesting. I think a lot of the market inflation is also tied to QT and QE. Another words Powell has warned us. And it's aligned with your chart analysis. I agree with you only I think we will see an ABC down = to the first ABC down another word get ready for some pain.

[@ireallytrade1]

what i love about this game is we will find out--and the truth can really hurt---or fell great!

[@umermehmood6889]

Thanks for your great work..according to your charts we will revisit June lows in end of October..do you think we can go more lower for s&p in somewhere Q4?? Wts your year low number?? Appreciate again

[@ireallytrade1]

doubt we will test those lows the advance decline line is the key here

[@umermehmood6889]

@@ireallytrade1 thanks for your response

[@ergonautilus]

I wish these charts labeled what each red line and black line means. Charts without labels are confusing.

[@ireallytrade1]

good idea thank you

[@boftrix]

Hey Larry, thanks for another great vid. I am wondering just how the prevailing big squeeze on retailer investors disposable income / compounding macro issues might perhaps influence the historical October market recovery this year. I've not experienced so many global issues all at once in my lifetime and would appreciate your thoughts on what might be considered a rather unique set of circumstances. Many thanks Larry

[@ireallytrade1]

the trade is the trade i see it as a short term trading opportunity setting up the larger move

[@boftrix]

@@ireallytrade1 👌

[@langliaa9816]

Hi Larry what is the outlook for Solar stocks long term? Thanks

[@ireallytrade1]

sorry i have no idea

[@adengan]

Hi Larry, with reference to the chart from around 7:00 where you compare the money supply with CPI, when the money supply increases, doesn't it take time to work its way to the consumer market and create an upward pressure on the prices? Hence, from the charts, when money supply rises to a peak, we see a corresponding increase in CPI a few years on; the effect isn't immediate. Likewise, the decline in the CPI isn't the result of the recent rise in money supply, but the lagging effect of a money supply decline a few years earlier. Could you shed some light on this? Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the data, Larry. Much appreciated.

[@ireallytrade1]

it looks to me---like usually it does but not always

[@ishwarthawani5777]

Excellent video, informative and full of history. Thanks so much Larry. Kindy provide your thoughts on Gold, Silver and Oil for the balance of 2022. Gold mining stocks have gone downhill for the last 5 months. On 18 April,2022 GDX was at $ 41.61, Friday 09 th September,2022 GDX closed at $ 25.10. Much appriciate everything you do.

[@ireallytrade1]

maybe i will get to metals in next report

[@ishwarthawani9466]

@@ireallytrade1 Thanks so much

[@SpencerDavis2000]

hey Larry thanks for the presentation as well as the seasonal September trades going to keep those in mind.

[@chrismorkos6921]

Thank you Larry for your informative videos.

[@twinflex2912]

Hoping to make money with this strategy! Thanks Larry the 🐐

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

Made it through a brutal September for stocks. Time to start going up Larry?

[@ireallytrade1]

absolutely---WHAT TO LOOK FOR??? THE FORMATION OF A HIGHER SHORT TERM LOW

[@lrfcarreviews2570]

@@ireallytrade1 We already undercut the June lows so I don’t see how it’s a higher low. It’s either a breakdown or a double bottom here.

[@ireallytrade1]

those new lows breaks are just as often buy points

[@lexusmclarry9542]

You nailed it Larry...wonderful

[@xrayeyes2023]

Greetings Larry.Just to make sure I understand 12 TDOM , I interpret this to exclude Sept. 5, 2022 Labor Day. Sept.19 will be the 12th TDOM. I am aware not to be a stickler or should I be? Thank you so much four your video presentations.

[@ruthlessluder]

I think we'll have a flat to slight up day tomorrow due to the max pain at 4000 on quadruple witching. But then next week could be blood bath as Larry said Monday is a good day to short. Probably will buy a put on EOD tomorrow.

[@blanchiepoo101]

Great insight, Larry! Ideal StopLoss ~2200 ... is that 2200 from Sell price? Thanks

[@ireallytrade1]

yes or thereabouts

[@roblake9856]

Still confused about this. Does the example assume some $ amount shorted? If so, what amount? And then the $2200 is the max loss if stopped out, correct? Sorry...Did I miss something? Maybe stop loss described in percentage terms would be clearer. Please help. Thanks

[@ireallytrade1]

@@roblake9856 yes one contract of the es mini

[@roblake9856]

@@ireallytrade1 Forgive me please. One more question. I trade shorts using ETFs, and so am unfamiliar with trading the es mini contracts. What would be the initial outlay for 1 short es mini? Thank you.

[@kmoto4783]

Hi, Larry, Thank you for sharing your years of knowledge with us! Can we apply this buy signal for longer term 401k holdings?

[@ireallytrade1]

yes as i see it the buy coming up is long term

[@kmoto4783]

Thank you, Larry. Looking forward to next year's forecast already!

[@scott_drummer]

Thanks Larry for another great video. Question: If I sell by using the SH etf, what would the $2200 stop loss translate to?

[@ireallytrade1]

about 8% i think

[@scott_drummer]

@@ireallytrade1 Thanks Larry.

[@larrybaugher6171]

Thank you for sharing Larry!

[@Lawliet734]

8:00 That is a perfect example of two unrelated lines! The correlation coefficient probably reveals statistically insignificant correlation. Any correlation is an optical illusion. 8:55 One could substitute inflation with butter production and the correlation, however false, will look no less convincing.

[@ireallytrade1]

really? please show is that chart...agree correlation is not causation so my studies look at lots of history to-attempt-to avoid that

[@georgejones2387]

I asked the checkout lady at the grocery store if she has seen any prices go down. Answer - No - It is obvious to me that companies are pocketing the difference if indeed commodity prices are going down. So inflation is here to stay until we see lower prices at the grocery store.

[@4jbennett]

Thank you Larry for all you do. When you do cycle work, do you ever consider Hurst Cycles? Do you think Hurst cycle may help or are not that predictive?

[@ireallytrade1]

I have not found how to make them work and hold up....perhaps i am not smart enough!

[@ValerieHoffDeCarlo]

Great info Larry, my trading group always looks forward to your videos!!

[@sprecklesville]

Surely that indicates there is a lag in inflation in response to rising money supply - there is not an immediate reaction

[@ireallytrade1]

yup!

[@rockedbottom]

thank you Larry. you're a legend.

[@gmoneyslowdance5510]

Can someone please summarize the trade on the 12th tdom. Thank you

[@bnftrader7573]

Thank you Larry for sharing ! Big fan of yours

[@Dinngg0]

Since this video was made, the market went up, then down, down, and away!

[@ireallytrade1]

ha ha for one day at least ;-}

[@Neelsworld2022]

It blew my mind. Im in a twilight zone now.

[@thebestknotsforclimbers.7689]

Thanks so much for another great video, Larry!!! 😊

[@comfibold]

I suspect the annual drop in late September is related to the Autumn Equinox.

[@ireallytrade1]

;-}