Elliott Wave Targets for S&P500 MELT-UP! | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

In this week's US market update, Rob Roy's Elliott Wave analysis for Stock, Crypto and Options Traders covers recent economic news, particularly the CPI and PPI reports, and how these may play into a melt-up scenario. He further looks at Elliott Wave targets for the market. The CPI report came out weaker than expected, which initially led to a market decline on Thursday. Conversely, the PPI report was slightly hotter than expected, causing the markets to rise on Friday.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:40 - Economic News
01:25 - SPY
04:53 - TNX
06:25 - US Dollar
07:45 - DIA (Dow Jones)
09:23 - QQQ
11:51 - VIX
12:57 - BTC
14:53 - ETH
15:05 - SLV
15:51 - GLD
16:43 - USO
18:35 - TSLA
21:05 - NVDA
22:09 - UNG
23:43 - INDA
24:53 - FXI
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Rob then examines the SPY (S&P 500), noting that despite the CPI report being negative, the market opened higher but reversed and closed lower. The PPI report's impact led to a recovery in the market, highlighting the unusual market behavior. He emphasizes that the markets are currently cautious, with a potential melt-up scenario into the election and a subsequent correction if the Fed starts cutting rates.
The analysis moves to the TNX (10-year Treasury yield), where Rob discusses the impact of lower interest rates on the economy and market sentiment. He suggests that a weakening economy could delay the Fed's rate cuts. He also touches on the dollar, noting its decline and the potential global concerns about US debt if the dollar weakens too much.
Rob proceeds to analyze the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), mentioning the recent zigzag pattern and its implications. He also looks at the QQQ (NASDAQ-100), noting that despite a pullback, it remains above the 10-day moving average, and the market shows a broadening rally, especially evident in the IWM (Russell 2000), which broke out of a trading range.
He examines the VIX (Volatility Index), indicating its current low level around 12.5 and the potential for a drift lower, which could support a market melt-up. Rob also discusses Bitcoin, noting its recent price movements and the factors influencing its volatility, such as government actions and supply changes.
The analysis extends to metals, specifically SLV (Silver ETF) and GLD (Gold ETF). Rob highlights the breakout patterns in both, with GLD showing a strong symmetrical triangle breakout. He mentions oil (USO), discussing its recent price movements and potential future scenarios.
In the stocks of interest section, Rob covers Tesla (TSLA), noting its recent volatility due to news about the delay of the robo-taxi rollout. He also analyzes Nvidia (NVDA), suggesting a more moderated upward movement. Natural gas (UNG) is discussed, with Rob pointing out the need for it to break above certain moving averages to signal a bullish trend.
Lastly, he examines the Indian market (INDA) and the Chinese market (FXI), noting their recent movements and potential future directions. Rob concludes by inviting viewers to join the Trade Finder live webinars for more in-depth market analysis and trading opportunities.

[@4everyoung713]

My daughter walks by while I was watching your video and she said: "Chuck Norris"!

[@robroy3343]

LOL, Love that! Thanks for the post!

[@paradoxology5928]

Thank you Rob. I appreciate your analysis and dry humor. I am glad to be getting an intro to Elliott Wave. I came your way as a "gift" from Money Map, and am overall profitable trading with you and Jeff. Keep up the good work.

[@robroy3343]

Glad to hear it, thanks for your comments and the post!

[@phil4bama]

Thanks Rob. You talked about TSLA getting too far away from its 10 MA so I took a flyer on some TSLA puts. I managed to catch most of that big drop yesterday and the rebound today tripped my stop loss and I had a 90% gain in 3 days. Good call. Appreciate all you do for us little guys.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the comments and nice job on the TSLA puts! Those moves tend to happen quickly, so good on ya for having the stop. Thanks for the post!

[@HB-it5of]

Thanks for the EWO break down, learning more every week.

[@robroy3343]

Glad to hear it! Thanks for the post!

[@Dr.BBaniya]

BTC fear and greed index is at "Extreme Fear" level, meaning a good time to buy! Thank you for timely update.

[@Meowmeow.age.6]

That doesn't mean anything if BTC is starting a bear market.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for your take and the post!

[@willdixon5019]

Really enjoying learn about EW analysis with you. Great stuff.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the comments and the post!

[@mml1224]

luv the invidual stock pick analysis ung, tsla , indexes, nvda etc......hell of a job roy

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the comments, much appreciated!

[@willaerley7140]

I have to admit that Rob gets it right more often than I do.

[@robroy3343]

I appreciate the comments Will and thanks for the post!

[@RealTradesStockMarket]

Just goes to show no one knows a damn thing. 😂 We could “melt up” for months, or crash 10% tomorrow.

[@robroy3343]

Absolutely no one knows for sure what is going to happen in the markets, the idea is to try and find a little "edge" for ones own trading. Since 2001, I have found that EW provides me that edge more than any other indicator that I have looked at. I think if you have been watching over the past few years, you would have to agree that EW has been pretty darn accurate. Thanks for the post.

[@WetWillieBBQ]

Keep sharing your knowledge Chuck, I mean Rob.

[@robroy3343]

LOL, Thanks for the post!

[@SilverMonsterCoind]

Love this every time it is published.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@Arkwellnesscenter]

Thanks for everything you do

[@jimlefeber715]

Thank you Rob. BTW Late 'Happy Birthday'!

[@robroy3343]

Thank you and thanks for the post!

[@patjones4660]

Thanks for the update.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@sptrsttradr4918]

Thanks Rob! I love the way you cover all the major markets, and some stocks of interest very quickly! With the IWM, I remember it's breakout run up to 240 back in November of 2021 and it was kind of like the last hurrah for the market as we went into a correction...not saying that's happening again...just saying :-)) I'm profitable with your Impulse strategy but I just talked to Steven about upgrading to Level 3 or Platinum...

[@robroy3343]

Awesome on the upgrade, it's great to have all potential market conditions covered! Thanks for the comments, your take on the IWM and the post!

[@conradmarkert8870]

I wish I could afford your alerts program, you seem to have a great read on the market

[@Simon-talks]

The flu gets a “Chuck Norris shot“ every year.

[@robroy3343]

LOL, always love the Chuck one-liners! Thanks for the post!

[@bd7928]

Rooting for BTC!!!!!!! 🎉🎉🎉 great show, Rob!

[@ThePowerInYouNow]

Thank you!

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@04gemz98]

Hey Rob, could you give us your thoughts on gold miners & possibly uranium? Thanks for all you do!

[@robroy3343]

I've shown those in the past and will add them in again next week. Thanks for the post!

[@GeminiOneFive]

The consensus was that the Fed would NOT cut so close to the election for "fear" of appearing political, but no one is mentioning that now Also, very few are discussing the issues at Bank of Japan and the Yen-USD crisis. If Japan raises rates, that could catch over leveraged debt by surprise playing the arbitrage trade (especially is the US does lower rates)

[@robroy3343]

Agreed. Thanks for your take and the post!

[@wadp5962]

It is an interesting update as usual. You seem to have forgotten to activate the chapters feature as I found it not working for me. Another KZbin channel that I watch that does technical analysis of the stock market, but does not use Elliott Waves, agrees that, for now, the market will continue going up. They are projecting a major recession, while I’m projecting a depression. A monthly technical analysis I receive of precious metals is forecasting silver to go to between $160 and $170 over the next few years. They are also warning of possible stagflation and that a great reset is underway with global currencies. In addition there is a shift underway from non-renewable energy to renewable energy. This part of the push for silver going much higher than anyone generally thinks.

[@marshallminobe466]

Hi Rob, Love your analysis. IWM is dramatic. Are there other indications that the markets move higher is now broadening?

[@willaerley7140]

Check the MVSI or new highs vs new lows. Not really showing broadening just yet.

[@robroy3343]

On Friday, a few sectors that have been underperforming (although most stocks have) caught a little bid, but it's too early to say the market rally is broadening. It still could be some rotation to the defensive side. The outlier is of course the IWM. The next week or two will give us a better idea. Thanks for the post!

[@lisas.h.6337]

Thanks Rob

[@edwindartois3452]

Great recap as always!

[@williewest5574]

Thx bro

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@alexkruger5746]

Hello Rob, which three moving averages are You using? 10 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 EMA?

[@fluffylolita2271]

A while back you set RY as a case study and it's climbing higher as you indicated.

[@sptrsttradr4918]

In his impulse strategy, he had two profitable trades in RY

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the comment and the post!

[@robroy3343]

@@sptrsttradr4918 Thanks for posting that, much appreciated!

[@fluffylolita2271]

@@sptrsttradr4918 I assume you're trading RY on the NYSE. I access RY on the TSX. It's wonderful to have something in motion on Canada's index.

[@timkrouse345]

Thanks!

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@rajeshmadan5265]

Great stuff.

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@WetWillieBBQ]

Doesn't UNG's rise above Wave 4 violate the downward EW? Should the EW relabel or disappear?

[@GeminiOneFive]

Howdy Rob, You've stated that breakouts typically retrace/retest back to breakout point. Do you believe that dip in GLD was the retest of the triangle breakout and this latest surge higher is the confirmation or do you still expect a retest to come before a larger breakout (your projection shows 250 as the target)? Also, If this breakout was a fakeout on GLD, would you have expected it to fail already ? You usually have stats handy. When looking at that GLD chart, it shows a breakout. How often does a breakout like this fail? Thank You.

[@robroy3343]

A breakout this strong usually continues to the price level designated by the width of the mouth of the triangle. Yes, I do think GLD tested the breakout and then continued. Some time in the future, it may go back to the exact point of the breakout, but that could be a ways into the future. Thanks for the post!

[@GeminiOneFive]

@@robroy3343 Thank You..

[@ronaldlandwerlen1301]

Good info!

[@johns3668]

Will the fed wait too long ? Is that a question yes everytime rinse and repeat part of their plan

[@robroy3343]

It sure seems that way at times doesn't it? Thanks for the post!

[@dmw1019]

thank you!

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@dmw1019]

@@robroy3343 hey rob I really appreciate your content and the software, can you recommend a primer that has all of the Elliot wave insights in one place? I’m watching your educational videos and really like them. Is there 100% coverage there or is there something else that will help me? Thanks again

[@Sleepers_Awake]

Hi Rob, Over the past two weeks there have been 3 subscriber alerts for gold (GLD). Two sideways alerts (IC & Calendar) from Jeff and the impulse break out from yourself. How can these alerts be internally consistent? How do I choose which alert to follow? This is also made a little more confusing because the alerts all come out at different times Ie the IC was first & I missed getting into this trade but the following day there was a GLD calendar which I got into. However, in hindsight it was the final alert for the breakout which was the most correct, as GLD has really taken off and the calendar is now under water. Can you comment on how we should reconcile getting multiple EWO alerts from both yourself and Jeff please. Cheers Shane

[@ElliottWaveOptions]

I’m sure Rob will reply himself in addition to this reply, but we would also encourage you (and anyone else interested) to register for this weeks EWO Platinum Event where related information to your question will be covered. home.ewotrader.com/platinum-event

[@jerrybroadway4535]

tlsa when up fast and now going down fast you were right

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the comments and the post!

[@GregRyanFitness]

Go look at market in July of 2007. Tracking exactly like it!

[@makullee]

I think wave 5 is done!

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Heal. Y e a h !

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@PonziZombieKiller]

@@robroy3343 10-4 !

[@Charlotte-ew6sw]

I love what you said about having a long term view so much. Being in the market, even if it's the S&P, demands a lot of patience. I'm not close to being a great investor, but having a long term view has definitely helped me profit significantly, more than 400% in the last five years.

[@SirManselus]

Time in the market is more important than timing the market. I can't remember who made that quote.

[@Sophia-bt2uh]

I agree. Patience, coupled with a strong investing skill, could make significant returns. If you don't have the skill, hire someone who does, and wait it out. I've made so much from following this very simple strategy

[@Daisy-yr6ez]

That's a really impressive return. Any tips in particular that could help me? I'm trying to put some of my money in the market and make profit this year.

[@Sophia-bt2uh]

Angela Lynn Shilling is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@Daisy-yr6ez]

Thank you for this. I'll send her an email to reach her, and I hope I'm able to make something out of it.

[@EZchairchillen]

Kinda like winning the lottery, but you have to work more, and the odds are a little better

[@robroy3343]

Nothing worth having comes easy, at least I believe that. I've been trading for 28 years and am still learning. Thanks for the post!

[@timothyfahey5056]

We need that Chevron trade to make money to pay for the gas for our Challenger.

[@donaldatkinson4165]

love Elliott waves

[@gary5782]

The market is pricing in a rate cut in September. Unbelievable and right before the election.

[@urthangel6229]

Chuck Norris

[@humbertovazquez1479]

👍💯💪🙏👊👏☝️

[@robroy3343]

Thanks for the post!

[@Friedafromthewest]

I'm favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs, Thank you buddy. $63,700 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.

[@turbofanlover]

LOL