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In this week's US market update, Rob Roy's Elliott Wave analysis for Stock, Crypto and Options Traders covers recent economic news, particularly the CPI and PPI reports, and how these may play into a melt-up scenario. He further looks at Elliott Wave targets for the market. The CPI report came out weaker than expected, which initially led to a market decline on Thursday. Conversely, the PPI report was slightly hotter than expected, causing the markets to rise on Friday.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:40 - Economic News
01:25 - SPY
04:53 - TNX
06:25 - US Dollar
07:45 - DIA (Dow Jones)
09:23 - QQQ
11:51 - VIX
12:57 - BTC
14:53 - ETH
15:05 - SLV
15:51 - GLD
16:43 - USO
18:35 - TSLA
21:05 - NVDA
22:09 - UNG
23:43 - INDA
24:53 - FXI
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Rob then examines the SPY (S&P 500), noting that despite the CPI report being negative, the market opened higher but reversed and closed lower. The PPI report's impact led to a recovery in the market, highlighting the unusual market behavior. He emphasizes that the markets are currently cautious, with a potential melt-up scenario into the election and a subsequent correction if the Fed starts cutting rates.
The analysis moves to the TNX (10-year Treasury yield), where Rob discusses the impact of lower interest rates on the economy and market sentiment. He suggests that a weakening economy could delay the Fed's rate cuts. He also touches on the dollar, noting its decline and the potential global concerns about US debt if the dollar weakens too much.
Rob proceeds to analyze the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), mentioning the recent zigzag pattern and its implications. He also looks at the QQQ (NASDAQ-100), noting that despite a pullback, it remains above the 10-day moving average, and the market shows a broadening rally, especially evident in the IWM (Russell 2000), which broke out of a trading range.
He examines the VIX (Volatility Index), indicating its current low level around 12.5 and the potential for a drift lower, which could support a market melt-up. Rob also discusses Bitcoin, noting its recent price movements and the factors influencing its volatility, such as government actions and supply changes.
The analysis extends to metals, specifically SLV (Silver ETF) and GLD (Gold ETF). Rob highlights the breakout patterns in both, with GLD showing a strong symmetrical triangle breakout. He mentions oil (USO), discussing its recent price movements and potential future scenarios.
In the stocks of interest section, Rob covers Tesla (TSLA), noting its recent volatility due to news about the delay of the robo-taxi rollout. He also analyzes Nvidia (NVDA), suggesting a more moderated upward movement. Natural gas (UNG) is discussed, with Rob pointing out the need for it to break above certain moving averages to signal a bullish trend.
Lastly, he examines the Indian market (INDA) and the Chinese market (FXI), noting their recent movements and potential future directions. Rob concludes by inviting viewers to join the Trade Finder live webinars for more in-depth market analysis and trading opportunities.