End of an Era: Jacob Shapiro on Why Globalization Was a 30-Year Aberration

Mauldin Economics COO Ed D’Agostino interviews the master of nuance Jacob Shapiro, a partner at Cognitive Investments and co-founder of Geopolitical Futures with the legendary George Friedman. Jacob breaks down why the last 30 years of globalization were an aberration, how it started to unwind with Obama’s tire/poultry trade war, and which country will become “the next China.”
You can learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
www.cognitive.investments/Jac...
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Time stamps:
00:00 - Get used to higher prices
00:25 - Intro to Jacob Shapiro
02:29 - The nuances of “reshoring” away from China
07:17 - Mexico’s new trade leverage over the US
10:58 - What you can’t have without globalization
15:51 - China’s real estate problem
22:01 - What China’s tech is capable of
23:58 - Taiwan’s future
30:44 - Saudi Arabia’s push to modernize

[@tarojohn-zg8fd]

Very good in putting all the points together - thank you …

[@trillionexmacro]

Ed Huawei has developed its own OS and can run on Android and on its own operating system. China has also catch up on the software side even in Cybersecurity and Cloud

[@MauldinEconomicsYouTube]

Thanks for the follow up. -Ed

[@rejectionistmanifesto8836]

​@@MauldinEconomicsKZbinall economic channels need to warn young people NOT to get married (expenses increase dozens if not a 100 folder after marriage over a lifetime versus a bachelor) or bring innocent children into this horrific collapse that is coming. We should not just talk about what is about to happen but give them this important advise.

[@bigqueue]

Yes, and the veneer the conversation changes totally when you consider what those people that are supplying us think of us. That is to say, we were the ones that weaponize things before anybody else. I'm not saying they were happy to sell us things at such a low price, but it really did build up their economies their infrastructure and their people. The way the Chinese leveraged of a low-cost production capability was able to pull many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. They were actually quite happy with that situation, and it was us, the United States who decided to weaponize the United States dollar in its latest incantation with Russia, but far earlier than that with other countries like Iraq, Libya and Iran. I actually think the situation we are in today is of our own making. We made the bed and we need to sleep in it now.

[@pagan-540]

Not tenable. Wealth and imperialism go together.

[@blackknight4996]

You are right

[@jameskeefe1761]

Shapiro knows his stuff. The difficult thing for China is getting that lithography equipment implemented and so on to make chips. Software is easy to replicate. Precision engineering that goes into chips is a whole other thing. China struggled to get a ballpoint pen made. But I think China could eventually nail the chip problem and make its own chips and could prove the people who say all they can do is assemble to be wrong if it has the resolve to do it. Its a big challenge but they have a good chance of it. It is nuanced and there is also a chance they could slip. China has its challenges for sure, but they have resolve there is a chance it can persevere. This is a country with a large industrial base, a homogeneous society, socially conservative government, strong work ethic and a focus on STEM, which leads to an increasingly skilled population that can give China resilience to advance. There are many countries around the world that want to consume its products which make their lives better. I actually think the highly fictionalized but increasingly decrepit USA with its drug epidemic and broken families, over emphasis on sports, cultural degredation, $100 trillion of unfunded liability, has gone from a major innovator to a has been, can no longer seem to make cutting edge chips, with its inner cities with 80% out of wedlock birth rates, the invasion of low skill, high crime migrants at the borders which will become an albatross and overweight the welfare state nd drive down wages, massive crime problems and schools where students cant read or do math, is in much bigger trouble. There is nuance there as well, but it continues to create more problems for itself and squander opportunities. The emphasis in the US on sports and on degeneracy, pushing deranged ideologies on children such as LGBT and dividing the population with divisive rhetoric blaming one group in particular caucasian men for all the problems of another group rather than working together is not helping.

[@davemccune5526]

I think you have rightly assessed the US.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Add to this that the average iQ in China 🇨🇳 is higher than the averages for USA citizens. Couple this reality to the far superior education that's standard in China. Ignorant Americans think China provides only cheap labor by stupid Chinese. 😅😂😮

[@biggenie34]

subtitules please.....

[@jamesruscheinski8602]

focus on divine central authority substantive human rights

[@user-te6ru8kw3h]

"We're dependent on countries that aren't very friendly to us." Framing the macro context in that light is intellectually naive or plain dishonest, and a set up for a fallacious line of economic reasoning. Little less empire maintenance and a lot more actual diplomacy could make this "onshoring/friendshoring" exigency far less critical.

[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

What Russia is doing in our back yard Africa and sowing conflict 😂yeah right