ETSY (ETSY) Stock Analysis and Forecast | Estimated Investment Return

[@zhenhaolau5725]

The most underrated investment channel I've ever seen. As a finance professional, him using financial metrics for analysis puts him miles ahead from the other "investment" youtubers.

[@HGLehnsdal]

Cameron uploads a video, I stop doing whatever I was doing and I watch the video. Easy

[@mrsdbrc]

Same over here, can’t wait for the next... how he explains numbers it’s so logical....

[@layssi]

Yes. I love his analysis. So balanced. No hype. He crunches the numbers. Thank you Cemeron

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the support!

[@leestringer]

As an Etsy seller this one is close to home for me. But I must say I've had a good experience selling for them. A lot of sellers got upset and threatened to leave when Etsy decided to change the algorithm so that those who offered "free shipping" would automatically get higher search results than those who didn't, but most just compensated by tacking on an estimated shipping cost to the original price. The stock does seem a little expensive, but I think it's worth a go. And it would be cool to have a small percentage of ownership for a company I work with. Awesome video. Thanks.

[@David.Marquez]

Every day there's a new Cameron Stewart video is a good day.

[@victorcorcos]

Keep doing this AWESOME videos of valuation! I never see a person liking so much to valuate stocks. You emanate that you love to do this to outside and it is SO amazing to WATCH! You have NO IDEA.

[@jacobellisonmusic5576]

After ETSY, a comparison video for something like EBAY would be very interesting

[@ryanshroyer2163]

Would love to see an update here with the giant slide.

[@OliSGM]

I would love to see your take on the Discovery/Wener merger. Looks like they could end up trading at 10x EV/EBITDA but the debt is an issue!

[@aghaaliraza87]

I came across this video while looking for investment-related info on Etsy, and ended up watching the entire thing. I'll go through all tech stock analyses on this channel over the next few days. Thank you for doing such an amazing job!!!

[@cex6]

Even with the big pull back after ER yesterday it is still too expensive to buy for the long run, the stock is bouncing hard today as I type this ($175 BACK TO $187). Agree w Cameron's assessment completely, need to see $150s or lower to buy some, patience is key.

[@angelcovarrubias3418]

I really like your videos. I would say that there may be room to add a "Moat" analysis where you take a look at the competitive landscape. INTC for example is having their "moat" eroded by TSM/AMD and AAPL so in that regard INTC maybe a "value trap" where "Mr. Market" maybe correctly pricing INTC going forward as the competitive advantage for INTC declines. Thank you for sharing your knowledge, these are perhaps the best-in-class videos on security analysis around.

[@HighestIQ]

Watching just one of your videos I have learned more about investing then anything I learned in finance class because apparently watching Jim Cramer and practicing writing checks is all you need.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the comment! I won't hold by breath for the TV offer. :)

[@marcdesjardins6022]

It would be interesting to get your impression on the trade desk..TTD..thanks

[@michaelkalopaidis7865]

Thank you so much for all the love and effort that you put into these videos. I would love to see your take on Merck and Iberdola, both of which provide high dividends.

[@dividend_investing]

Great video, can you have a look at Broadcom, Qualcomm or TSM in the semiconductor industry please!

[@salva.portillo]

Hi Cameron. Great videos, thanks!! One question... why should we take into account the FCFE/share during 10 years when calculating the IRR if the shareholder isn't going to receive that FCFE in form of dividend? My bank account will have these movements in the next 10 years: -$163 on 2021, +$334 in 2030, the excess FCFE is good for the company and it will be reflected in the price, but the shareholder doesn't get to enjoy it directly. Why consider it in the IRR calculation then? Thanks!

[@stefanlewis6708]

I have wondered the same thing for a while, but I haven't asked. And I'm still confused on that.

[@pol528]

Well, by the same logic, if the cashflows between year 1 and 9 of an alternative company were 0 but the cf of year 0 and 10 were the same, you yould get the same irr for both companies when in fact one is bwtter. Its true that cash may not ve given in form of dividens buts its better A company with more cashh than others... maybe someone can explain it better

[@salva.portillo]

@@pol528 Yeah, I get your point, but then the price target of the alternative company you get to by future FCFEs (18:06 timestamp) would be the present one, it wouldn't be higher and therefore IRR would be 0%. So... what I'm trying to say is that future FCFE is important for the calculation of the price target in year 9, and that's where you take it into consideration. Counting all the FCFE in the middle years when you don't get to really see that money in your bank account (unless dividends are paid) is misleading. Maybe I'm missing something. I guess the part of FCFEs that is used for share buybacks could be potentially considered, but the part used for debt payments or general growth of the company is considered in the price target. I still don't see it. I hope Cameron clarifies this point because I've reviewed many videos and there are many of us asking ourselves the same.

[@sumitjoshi8435]

@@salva.portillo I have exact same question which I have asked several times on his other videos in the past but unfortunately never received any response from Cameron.

[@willvu2131]

The reason why we use FCFE in calculating IRR (despite those cash flows not being paid out as dividends) is because we are under the assumption that management will act in the best interest of shareholders and provide value through other means like share buybacks, internal growth projects, inorganic growth like M&A (basically reinvestments). This newly created value is then reflected in the share price so long as the markets are efficient (if they aren't then this presents a buying/selling opportunity as well). Now-a-days, when companies issue share buybacks, you'll notice an immediate jump in the stock price, indicating that this newly created value is being "priced in". You'll typically only see companies issue cash dividends to investors when the internal ROI of their projects (g) < yield that investors can receive via dividends. Hence why newer companies don't really issue dividends whereas more mature ones will. Hope this answers your question.

[@RichPlusHappy]

Amazing video fellow CFA 🔥 Heavily undervalued channel!

[@acampbell2178]

VERY good point on inflation. Thanks, Cameron!!

[@MeirelesdeSousa1]

Cameron is the hero we don’t deserve! Thank you very much!

[@saiboddupalli]

Hey Cameron! This was great! Can you do a video on crowdstrike? I bought in at 175 and happy with the returns but unsure if I should continue to buy. Thanks!

[@ollieo7038]

This would be great. Crowdstrike is definitely highly expensive right now though.

[@mangosorbet8183]

Very good information. Very educational. Thank you for the video

[@Mattiaslash25]

Hi... great content... how would you answer back to Aswath Damodaran saying that using multiples for terminal value is pricing and not valuing a company? He’s got a point... at the end of the day terminal value is the biggest part of dcf

[@yamiyakoumis1007]

Your content is absolutely fantastic 😀 So grateful I found you

[@MJ-fy9em]

Great work as always Cameron. Best stock channel on KZbin and it’s not close. Would love to see Shopify in the future to compare to Etsy.

[@leerory3751]

Thanks for this informative video, really enjoy watching this video

[@MouseFINland]

Awesome content as always! Little constructive critisism is that sometimes when i listen your videos with headphones and when your voice is at ok volume, your intro blasts my ears so that could be something to consider but all in all love your content! Also would like to see Vertex pharmaceuticals (VRTX) next

[@acampbell2178]

To all the new viewers: Welcome to the party!

[@jackz1035]

Great! Thanks Cameron! Would love to hear your analysis on some of the beaten up private prison companies: GEO Group, Corecivic. They have around 2X price to free cash flow, is the market mistakenly valuing them?

[@gustavolonegro439]

A bit optimistic growth rate for my taste and high market multiple in 2030, would only consider at 80. Cameron, you may be right, but your analysis would make much more sense with lower expectations allowing for better margin of safety. In 2030, I don't think I'm paying a multiple of 25 with growth rates of maybe 6/7 for following years

[@steadystackin7250]

You will have 100K subs by year end. Probably before. You make understanding this easy

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks!

[@farahsmirage127]

I luv your video. Thank you I subscribed

[@DowsStockTalk]

Great Video! As someone for makes financial models this is pretty solid .

[@timothypaul8644]

Subscribed. Good value information.

[@The_Reasonable_Man]

Great video! Thanks. I’d love to see you do an analysis of Markel (MKL) which is often referred to as the mini-Berkshire Hathaway. Thanks!!!!

[@charlesborromeo281]

Awesome video, would you be able to analyze Nintendo? Growing revenue, growing EBITDA, low EV/EBITDA compared against itself, low debt, crazy growing cash flow......checks all the boxes. Thank you very much!

[@Goodvibesonly971]

Can u please do an updated video for Etsy. Thank you

[@konstantinassolovejus]

TopBuild and Resideo technologies would be nice to see videos on those.

[@RedondoBeach2]

Cameron, can you please post a video review of Applied Materials (AMAT)? They are a semiconductor equipment manufacturer. Some of their biggest competitors are LRCX, ASML and TSM.

[@rogerborno9186]

Hello Cameron, can you explain the question below by Gabriele (and others) about projected annual return (14% vs 7.4%)? Thanks.

[@davidkatunaric5835]

Do ENPH next. Most profitable solar company due to their strong moat

[@scottlouis6116]

awesome video! any chance you could look at REGN or CRSR ? I think both are much better values!

[@rogerborno9186]

Kudos Scott. I own both. CRSR has small float (26.5M) and 20% Shorts so with a good news this could turn into a rocket.

[@Goodvibesonly971]

Can you please do an updated video for Etsy?

[@roobear5357]

Cameron I like your videos and the logical way you analyze a stock.But I calculate that if I buy this stock at 163 and sell it 10 years later at 350 and collect no dividends in the meantime I get an annual rate of return of about 8%.!?

[@roobear5357]

The 14% is right theoretically if I don’t sell out... The 8% is what I get otherwise Both are useful perspectives in the stock analysis

[@martinvahtel7506]

163*(1.08)^10=351.9 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_interest)

[@hmu2816]

Greatly appreciate the analysis and the didactic exposition. Question on IRR: would it be more relevant to compute the IRR from the investor perspective? In the example, for the investor, what matters is the entry point (in this case, $163) and exit point ($334.13). I'm assuming no dividend payout. So, while the yearly FCFEs are the drivers for estimating the stock price at the exit point, the investor doesn't actually 'collect' them. Does it make sense?

[@김골치]

very good video thank you from korea

[@alexferdin]

Thank you Cameron, great video. For EV, do you use current S/O or diluted? Thanks.

[@chad5199]

great videos! would love to see aapl, mrk! cheers!

[@johnclark8631]

MRK!!!!!!!!

[@TheAnsyefulful]

Thank you for your analyses - robust and unbiased. Subscribed!. Any chance you can do analysis on Enphase Energy (ENPH)? Thank you from Indonesia..

[@dezter_8]

Hi Cameron is the template that you use for the analisys available somewhere? It would be really usefull for my studies and analisys, thank you🤙🏻

[@edouardgauthier367]

Cameron. Q? How does the purchase of the Brazilian e-commerce company change your opinion Holistically? Thanks Ed

[@appletlk9062]

Hi cameron, have you change ur opinion about intel??

[@asoydem]

Great analysis as always Cameron. Can you do Schlumberger next time?

[@jchen7445]

Awesome video, would love to see your thoughts on a somewhat similar company in PINterest

[@leonardoperrotta]

Cameron, may I ask you something? On the first chart where you show data for revenue, EBIDTA and debt you wrote that debt for fiscal year 2020 was 1.138 but when I go to 10k filling it shows 1.062 for long term debt and not a word about short term. What am I missing? Regards from Argentina!!

[@capitaldea]

I just drop it: TMO would be great for a review!

[@dionysos1979]

What about french company like DANONE (Ticker BN) ? Thanks Cameron for your amazing vidéos ;-)

[@qs9239]

Great content! May I ask something concerning your course? Since you amazingly upload these videos where you do a thorough analysis, what can I expect from your course? I mean I can do the same way with every stock by my own now?

[@gabrieleprinacerai9144]

Good video! Thank you! I have just one question for you: Are you sure about the 14% annual return of the investment buying the stock at 163$v and selling it 10 years after at 334$?? According to my calculation the return is almost half of it (7.4%).. If this is true than the price looks too expensive right now

[@pol528]

Thats true

[@sumitjoshi8435]

I think he uses IRR calculation which also uses FCF every year that business generates. But one thing I don't get is if final sale value includes all the cash flow that was not distributed to shareholders i.e. final value is what it is because business generated that much cash in the previous years and kept it which means it is baked into final value calculation, then adding FCF again to return does not make sense to me either. If etsy would have paid all the cash to shareholders then final value will be lot less than this. Am I missing something?

[@pol528]

@@sumitjoshi8435 well, I think that the final sale of 350$ share price does not include that fcfe/shere generated during the first 9 projections, remeber that this last cashflow of 350$ implicitly represents the future perpetuity cash flows from t10 to infinity because its calculted from a multiple, and multiples tend to represebt what the market expect of future profits (at least its what i think multiples to represent, they are equivalent to apply a perpetuity formula with a growth rate) . And to coming back to the fundamentals of valuation, as value investor you analize the value of an asset which is the present value of all future cashflows, so all future cashflows should be considered in tbe IRR calculation

[@robertmoukhametov8290]

Hi Cameron, big fan of yours and I'm glad I came across your channel this early on in my investing career! Could you review BABA stock as Charlie Munger bought into it recently and generally it seems undervalued?

[@GodOfWisdomGOW]

He already made it in the past, go and look it by yourself ;-) BABA in my own calculation has an IRR of 35%!! The only reason I´m not buying more is that I have overexposure to the Tech sector and it´s already my 3rd biggest position :-(

[@pauj.2322]

Please make a video about Strategic Education (STRA). Value trap or great value with stable growth ahead?

[@Hiking_USA]

Great video! Thanks!

[@jnaugy1074]

Great stuff!

[@yodacoc]

I watch every video, it's so interesting. Is it possible to review CMI ? It seems underpriced according to my calculation but I might be wrong.

[@americancraftware5885]

Cameron, could you PLEASE do Biogen? BIIB It looks like a HIGH IRR stock to me.

[@kiminthenorth]

always look forward to your vids, appreciate you sharing your knowledge! so much crap on the tubes, your credibility shines!

[@westnash]

Cameron, what are your thoughts on ROCE as a metric of valuation for a company?

[@antoniogiannotta9572]

Hi Cameron, why do you not summarise all your analysis in a spreadsheet? Thanks a lot for your work

[@joshw5343]

What's your take on VSTO?

[@r.b.tucker7912]

tell me you bought this in its 65-100 bucks range my guy?

[@CstewartCFA]

Sadly no. I’m looking at the multi location retail plays currently

[@gentileinvest]

Micron $MU should be you next video

[@silversoul5285]

Does anyone know what line items are being used to calculate the short term part of total debt?

[@johnhutson2443]

Easy price today is 97...are you buying now, if it was "good" a year ago?

[@CstewartCFA]

It's a good company, I lowered the price target in the cash flow club based on a slowing economy but long term this company should continue to grow.

[@hristolakov3563]

I think such a business with so little capex requirements probably worth a bit higher EV/EBITDA multiple. Its weird because i was more cautious than you in your previous analysis as usual, but now it's the opposite. :D

[@nunofreitas8838]

Nice analyses. You should see Shopify!

[@markjensen3929]

I would love to see you cover Roche Holding AG ADR, seems like a strong and undervalued company.

[@PhaniKumar-qz3ix]

nice video, can you please do valuation on BABA,BYND,TSLA

[@MyDreamside]

Can you do RED ELECTRICA , it has 6% dividend yield

[@Mesozoic_mammal]

Great analysis and as you have mentioned: the risk is in the growth. If they can continue from the latest growth, the company and the stock will perform amazing. If the growth slows down or even goes slightly negative after the pandemic, the stock will tank. Very hard to predict what will happen. For my taste it is too risky and uncertain without a margin of safety. This is a great business but might be a bad investment ... or an amazing one. Either way right now it is a pass for me. I'd personally like a safer investment with slightly less potential, rather than to swing for the fences. Besides I am putting all my spare cash in BABA right now. ;-)

[@user-ss2iq3cw8e]

I agree. To much hockeystick curve for the revenue. But on my watchlist if it becomes cheaper, if not no problem. Impressive data from this company.

[@brettwalz2770]

Hey Cameron, Do SNAP next! Very interested to hear your thoughts as I have had a position for a while.

[@kashmoney9340]

What you think of PLTR?

[@nicholasphan2630]

What discount rate did you use for your DCF?

[@edwardkhalstian7923]

ThermoFisherScientific great value there now!

[@webentwicklungmitrobinspan6935]

thoughts on prosus?

[@gustavolonegro439]

According to filings, long-term debt is now 2.4B, and they produce 500M at most. Seems too much debt.

[@jaredluo]

Damn my man how his this easy to understand chart flow free lol nice

[@livingalone5737]

Can you do Yeti holdings $YETI and cricut $CRCT

[@joshuakettlehake5051]

I am still hoping to see QCOM and/or AMAT. Your work is awesome. I appreciate it very much.

[@mathieulapensee8212]

Cameron, how about SBSW? Trading at 2x EBITDA with no net debt.

[@CstewartCFA]

What was the cause of the spike in last year’s revenue?

[@mathieulapensee8212]

@@CstewartCFA Merger with StillWater in May 2017... Merger of Lomnin in Q3 2019 which gave a big spike in Revenue.... In 2019,2020, Palladium prices have gone up. Platinum prices are going up now... Demand for these precious metals should continue to go up because of the auto and investment sectors.

[@willthach3]

Brilliant as always!

[@Blessing927NJ]

Could you please do a video on PINTEREST?

[@sociolocomtsac]

25x earnings is crazy high to assume in 10 years.

[@Poejj]

Sites like Etsy, eBay and others are going to take a huge hit in reduced participation/traffic when the new tax reporting rules kick in.

[@grancanariaforvacations7303]

What tax reporting rules? What do you mean!? Thanks

[@Poejj]

@@grancanariaforvacations7303 The current tax reporting rules for sites like this is that someone has to have a minimum of 200 transactions and a minimum of $20,000 in gross receipts for a 1099 to be triggered. They just reduced those standards to 1 transaction and $600 starting in 2021. A lot of people who use these sites to make a couple spare bucks are going to quit them completely rather than have to deal with all the accounting not to mention paying taxes. Sellers are also buyers so I foresee a mass exodus of users when this new reporting standard kicks in. The uninformed are in for a nasty surprise when they receive a big 1099 in 2022 for 2021 tax reporting.

[@grancanariaforvacations7303]

@@Poejj ok got it! I see your point now! Thanks for the explanation. I agree it’s going to affect the people that sell on these sites trying to make an extra income... Of the two, I was looking more at Ebay, but not at current prices, best regards! Markus

[@VincentHuijts]

Shot myself in the foot selling at $54, patience is a virtue.

[@jasonlango3594]

Can you do Yelp

[@andrewdwelley3394]

Great video Cameron. Very helpful. I would love to see a video on Navient (NAVI). They are a cash flow machine, extremely cheap P/E, they buy back loads of shares, but their revenue is declining. How would you analyze a stock like this?

[@ibrahimciftci9599]

Please check out Baozun ... the Chinese Shopify!

[@cd6581]

SQ Next!

[@surajrambhia1742]

Etsy update?

[@sagig72]

Fantastic business, fantastic video. Thanks Cameron! Can you please do AVGO ?

[@livingalone5737]

I like etsy I'm not from usa but when Im fining gift for anniversary with my partner I always Check etsy