Excel Line Up Model - Calculate Playing Time

[@StertyOG]

Nice video!! Ever done a rushing 1st down model on the nfl? Currently wanna work on one but don’t know where to start

[@wageredontilt1649]

I’ve done differing props. When you say 1st down rushing prop, can you explain the prop a bit more? How many first downs? Who will get the first down? Etc

[@StertyOG]

@@wageredontilt1649 yes my bad, I could’ve explained myself better 😂 and thank you a lot for replying too! I currently wanna make a model on which team in the nfl will get more rushing 1st downs than the other one. For example, let’s say it’s week 7 of the nfl season, and you have Baltimore at home and Steelers playing away. Which team will have a better rushing game as a team? As well, is there a way to implement a defense rank then use that rank against your prediction of your rushing 1st downs? Sort of like a Bayesian model

[@wageredontilt1649]

@StertyOG for something like this you will want to account for predicated score, and occurrence of runs in sets of downs. You’d also want to bake in the probability the defense gives up a pass v giving up the run, and bake in the distribution of yardage a team earns per run per down and what defense gives up.

[@StertyOG]

@@wageredontilt1649 thank you! I’ll try!

[@temp911Luke]

Hi, excellent video. Could you make a video on how to do horse racing or greyhound model ?

[@wageredontilt1649]

Unfortunately I don’t do models for horse racing, sorry.