Exoatmospheric Intercept: Did you Ever See One?

[@norm2007]

I commend you for your neutrality and impartial analysis.

[@akinbodeog]

Imagine being neutral and impartial during a genocide.

[@norm2007]

@@akinbodeog The fondation of preventing a genocide is not to take sides but to intervene as a strong neutral nation.

[@stephenhood2948]

@@akinbodeog Which is the good side?? Both sides of this conflict have been killing each other for thousands of years. When two religious fanatics clash there simply is no good side.

[@nonsequitor]

​@@akinbodeogThat would be a good point if the subject of the video and hence subject of the neutrality was the morality of the actions. But it isn't either of those things. The video is about whether missiles landed or not and objective facts. That's not morally questionable because it's not a moral position. Your point is childish rhetoric. Further, this is one of the very few *genuinely* apolitical channels, I.E. doesn't discuss anything where morality is even relevant. He doesn't do the fake both sides thing...there's no implied commentary. And if you look at the information in this video through the lens of morality Israel doesn't look good. Because genuine objectivity doesn't hide anything, good or bad. It just answers specific questions objectively. Let's appreciate that rare honesty for once.

[@akinbodeog]

@@norm2007 No, these people have not been killing each other for centuries, that is Israeli propaganda. Jewish lived mostly peacefully in Palestine and the wider middle east for thousands of years. The first European settlers in Palestine were welcomed and given land, houses, food and money. Until they started killing and stealing. Antisemitism is a European thing. Palestinian and Lebanese resistance has nothing to do with religion This is a textbook settler-colonial genocide. It's the exact same thing that happened in the Americas, all over Africa, Australia, New Zealand, parts of China, even the Chagos Islands. If you don't see it, you must be blind.

[@nawnaw4709]

God I miss this neutrality in the media if ever they had one

[@GabrielVitor-kq6uj]

they never had one in the first place, before internet you just assumed they were always right, cuz it was the only info you had.

[@havanasyndrome3024]

Never had one, you just didn't know any better.

[@DrVictorVasconcelos]

The entire point of "democracy" is that it shuts social movements up without having to do anything the media doesn't put them to... and you own the media 😂

[@andrewpienaar4522]

I've been looking back to the Cold war era and even before. There has never been neutrality in the media. I even looked at what the history books show about the Genocide the British commited here in South Africa in the Second Boer War of 1899 to 1902. The real picture of what they did here to the women and children in the consentration camps is well disguised.

[@gottfriedheumesser1994]

How will you have neutrality when there is an aggressor and a defender?

[@Kayzef2003]

It is Insane that a country that has been heavily sanctioned for generations can develop these sophisticated weapons.

[@92HazelMocha]

Well for one they've had decades. Secondly only the west has sanctioned them. They still do business with the rest of the world, and Russia is their primary military ally. Sanctions have limited effectiveness, especially when we sanction so many countries they can all just opt to do business with each other. This is exactly why the Iran nuclear deal existed; they'll still progress under sanctions, just slower, but under the deal they wouldn't progress at all in exchange for denim jeans and iPhones.

[@snizami]

I try to point out to those who bizarrely deny that Israel is heavily dependant -- if not desperately so -- on foreign aid despite its strong 'indigenous' military industry (everything's connected so even that indigeneity wouldn't fair well for long in the absence of Western support). When they try to imagine an Israel that would "be fine" if the US withdrew its diplomatic, technological, and military backing, they're actually thinking of an Iran like country. Israel can't just suddenly switch to a posture of asymmetric warfare, local manufacturing of arms etc especially when it's not very resource rich. It takes decades of sanctions and isolation and lots of landmass and natural resource and man power etc. Israel would very, very quickly start acting differently if the US credibly even so much as hinted at changing policy towards it.

[@Henry_the_Eighth_]

​@@snizami US would never do that unless AIPAC ceases to exist

[@EdwardRLyons]

@@snizami Iran also has the advantage that Russia (with which it shares a border) and China do not impose sanctions on it. So, as well as developing its own home-grown capabilities, it can also import what it needs from Russia and China (and many other non-Western countries). Plus, it has been involved in cooperative developments with North Korea. After all, it has plenty of oil that countries such as China or NK need.

[@rodiculous9464]

​@@Henry_the_Eighth_israel is a colony of America not the other way around. US is running out of oil and it's running out of the ability to harvest that oil in a cost effective manner that won't lead to skyrocketing energy costs, so all that's left is to steal it from everyone else

[@TheGibnem]

My favorite source for analysis of any military project, tech, or conflict. Right to the point, impartial, and very perfect amount of details. Thank you!

[@VEVAK007]

Some points 1. Khaibar is a nick name for Iran's Khoramshahr-4 missiles (None were used) Iran has NOT used any of it's Khoramshahr, Sejil, Haj Qassem Hypersonics or any of it's Fattah-2 hypersonic Missiles. 2.Khaibar Shikan is a different missile than the Khaibar it uses the same booster as the Fattah-1 & has the same range of 1400km but it doesn't have an additional TVC kick stage and instead it uses a standard glide vehicle with 4 maneuvering fins to reach it's target where as the Fattah-1 uses it's kick stage not for extended range but to reach hypersonic speeds (In a glide trajectory the Fattah-1 can reach 2150km which was used by Yeman) 3.Shahab-3 were produced by Iran between +25-15years ago Iran refurbished many of them with the Rezvan program but they weren't much useful in Iran's 1st strike against Israel. But they may be useful in an all out war when most of Israeli air defense has been depleted... I also have a question, in the footage on the hit near Mossad we see a bunch of wires deep underground that were hit. Is it possible that these were fiberoptics connecting Israeli IADS & Iran hit exactly what it wanted since it seems a hypersonic was used on that strike.

[@gottfriedheumesser1994]

The first attack was made with old junk to see how the defense works and to make the defenders think their system is perfect. The next attack can be made with countermeasures, and the defenders must recognize that their system is imperfect. Now the defenders have to study how to improve their system. That's how warfare has worked for millennia, only effectiveness, speed, and distances have increased.

[@Graeme-r2f]

Excellent analysis of current events with the Battle Of Britain going on in the background.

[@michaelguerin56]

Funny thing about that Tiger Moth in the background … gets its engine and wings from the Fox Moth, carries one passenger instead of four and flies more slowly😁.

[@notenote2004]

April was intelligence gathering. This time a show of force. Third time will be the whole enchilada…

[@riskinhos]

no. all the times were a genocide.

[@MM22966]

I suppose casting it as some devious master plan rather than two military failures and a waste of ordinance makes it hurt less.

[@92HazelMocha]

​@MM22966 they gave Israel a 24hr warning that they were going to shoot at them in April and where they were going to shoot.

[@neb-yr5589]

Not really. April was more of a warning shot. Iran informed the Russians 2 days prior to launching the strike, and warned the US before a whole day, giving them all the time in the world to prepare, move the assets and wait. Then Iran launched their slowest and most vulnerable Shahed drones, followed by a few dozen old cruise missile. All that hoping that Israel would back down. This time they only informed the Russians. And launched ballistic missiles instead of cruise missiles. Even though the vast majority got through, they had relatively smaller warheads. All things suggesting that this too was a warning, but a much firmer one. 3rd time it would be exclusively fattah 2 missiles and the most powerful ballistic missiles. Giving Israel approximately 4-5 minutes to pray whatever devil they worship, before the lights go out.

[@agricolaurbanus6209]

@@notenote2004 I thought it's called 'Piñata'?🤔

[@andrzejczaczkowski6084]

Wow, this is the most honest analysis I've seen. Great job.

[@babarmm7788]

👏👏

[@johnmarken3945]

Interesting analysis and makes sense. I too was suspicious about the IDF claims given the videos I saw which seemed to indicate more impressive missile hits vs debris. Note that some of them and ones you show here appear to be a heavy barrage. Second point is that I doubt Iran would seem so bold if it did not have even greater capability than shown in these attacks to damage IDF. And third, some of the missiles Iran has could be considered nuclear capable with sufficient range to hit Israel as well other targets in the region. Very scary indeed.

[@User-jr7vf]

So all the supposed bases hit and jets destroyed, and every Israeli has a phone but nobody took a pic or recorded a video? Just shows how unite they are when it comes to national security---not even a single leak.

[@eme42jtm]

You haven't seen the videos of the missiles landing? You must be the only one now. Of course Israel is not showing the bases as nevatim, but the missiles landed there.

[@LawAbidingCitizen117]

Don't you know IDF censored all social media there? Any sharing of info regarding the damage is strictly prohibited. 😂😂😂​@@User-jr7vf

[@oophyte]

IIRC, April was mostly drones and cruise missiles. Plenty of players joined the interception such as Jordan/Saudi Arabia. And the technical barrier to entry is way lower; even fighter jets could intercept those. It should be normal that a mostly ballistic missile barrage has a lower rate of interception.

[@curious_one1156]

Right. True.

[@arya2641]

IRGC ✅

[@hookedupboer]

Excellent analysis, please keep doing these

[@goldreserve]

Avoiding politics, but worth pointing out Iran was a democracy before 'Operation Ajax' 1953 carried out to prevent nationalisation of Anglo Iranian Oil Company (BP).

[@martinpalmer6203]

I think Iran is just doing what the rest of the world should be...Standing up against injustice and genocide. They are proving that the sort of warmongering and blatant extrajudicial murder via drones and airstrikes which has gone on for DECADES can no longer be done without consequences.... Rules are for Thee and not for ME has been the status quo for too long, especially with Israel and the US justifying killing without trial by vilifying the victims. Civilized countries need to behave better than that, frankly I dont see Iran as doing anything more than standing up for their sovereignty and holding Israel to account. Israel has used Antisemitism to justify their crimes against humanity by calling anyone who calls them out antisemitic. Im sure many many others share this sentiment.. its time for change.

[@loomroom]

and the coup of the democratically elected Iranian leader Mohammed Mossadegh in the 50s; by CIA/MOSSAD

[@Barri2410]

Which, ironically, caused a Revolution

[@loomroom]

there's no democracy in west Asia since The Anglosphere won't allow it

[@michaelguerin56]

My parents met the Shah-Reza Pahlavi-at a civic reception. He had a very cold manner and my mother observed that his wife was clearly scared of him.

[@Steven-p4j]

Your reportage of the situation, is the only non-biased response to the situation. Thank you.

[@neb-yr5589]

April was not so much of a "missile strike". Iran informed the Russians 2 days prior to launching the strike, and warned the US before a whole day, giving them all the time in the world to prepare, move the assets and wait. Then Iran launched their slowest and most vulnerable Shahed drones, followed by a few dozen old cruise missile. All that hoping that Israel would back down, and it was also a show to the Saudis, Qataris and the Emiratis. This time they only informed the Russians. And launched ballistic missiles instead of cruise missiles. Even though the vast majority got through, they had relatively smaller warheads. All things suggesting that this too was a warning, but a much firmer one. And looking at the way Israel is still acting, I can safely say that we're probably a few days away from the 3rd one.

[@Formula1st]

They did use some ballistic missiles in April

[@optimusprime844]

lol and you think Israel is just going to take all those missiles without retaliating, you're sadly mistaken. Israel might be small but don't underestimate it, it'll strike back hard too.

[@directxxxx71]

​@@optimusprime844 You think Iran is a small and weak country?

[@BalloonInTheBalloon]

@@optimusprime844 If anything I think most people overestimated Israel - at least when it comes to its missile defence o.O

[@optimusprime844]

@@directxxxx71 I never said that, the original comment is saying Irans next strike will be the end of Israel, and I’m saying Israel also has the capability to end Iran. So just keep that in mind

[@WorldTravelerCooking]

As always I very much appreciate your careful and even-handed analysis.

[@randomwarehouse4702]

It's interesting to see this. I haven't seen other sources discuss the possibility of this not being the full picture. Most assess that Iran aimed mostly at areas they knew the Israeli system deprioritized for a political strike and/ or used missiles too inaccurate to score hits, but given the scale of the recorded impacts it seems unlikely there hasn't been more damage than the Israelis claim. Thank you for the alternate viewpoint!

[@Millennium7HistoryTech]

I don't think airbases are not a priority.

[@James-rl5tj]

Craters adjacent to f35 hangars are about as juicy a target as there is.

[@randomwarehouse4702]

​@@Millennium7HistoryTech I assumed the other sources meant that *some* of the missiles were aimed at the desert or somewhere they wouldn't be engaged so Iran could have a technical success no matter what, but in retrospect that doesn't seem to be the main focus of the strike. I think you're right about the Iranians striking for real and some damage being undisclosed so far.

[@randomwarehouse4702]

@@James-rl5tj I assumed the other sources meant that *some* of the missiles were aimed at the desert or somewhere they wouldn't be engaged so Iran could have a technical success no matter what, but in retrospect that doesn't seem to be the main focus of the strike. I think you're right about the Iranians striking for real and some damage being undisclosed so far.

[@user-copiadeamigo]

@@Millennium7HistoryTechso they are? 😅

[@Mega-Tales]

Who knew Iran had hypersonic glide vehicles that detached just before the exoatmospheric intercept occurred...Mad intelligent stuff

[@samad3251]

Every video you create not only shapes history but cements your legacy as a legend. Otis too🙏🙏

[@Millennium7HistoryTech]

Way too kind!

[@MrBegeman]

Well done

[@zazugee]

"All is well, in the world of Orwell"

[@ZyphrPix]

Orwell's works were sponsored by British intelligence and he worked for them. That's the kind of world that has existed for a very long time.

[@des_smith7658]

INGSOC 🇬🇧 war is peace

[@lamhkak47]

Oh well...

[@jamesmandahl444]

@ZyphrPixbrigade. Yeah I love Orwells works but he was spook affiliated for a good while. He did eventually see that communism and capitalism were both guided by powerful factions in America and the UK. The same types of guys discussing "stakeholder capitalism". Orwell worked with them and hated them. He also wrote for the public and hated them, too. I think he assuaged his guilt by telling us some truths. Same with Aldeus Huxley.

[@MrPloopi]

thanks to the youtube algo, I "discovered" your channel, and as much as the relevancy of the new YT algorithm has severely declined with years, for once it did a good job.

[@lohhol3224]

Otlichna! Thank you for the great video

[@ilVice]

Gotta love England for that. Many years ago, I was on a campus south of Cambridge for a scientific conference, and I was drawn out of my room by the loud sound of multiple piston-engine aircrafts approaching. I was blown away to see Hurricanes, Spitfires, and even BF109s flying so low over my head. And then, when I thought it was over, bombers came in. 90% sure they were Lancasters. I couldn't believe it. Soon I learned where the airshow was, and apparently I was right on the path towards it. The sole fact that I learned how a Messerschmitt sound different from a Spitfire in the XXI century is still mind-blowing to me.

[@richardscathouse]

The old ways still work, the A10 in Afghanistan killed many by strafing with depleted uranium, I understand the SU75 checkmate will have strafing capacity 😂

[@cyberbrosstudios7662]

Was this at Churchill College by any chance?? Was surprised by the D-Day 75th anniversary flyby of what looked like C47s there as a fresher

[@ilVice]

@@cyberbrosstudios7662 I was at the EBI-EMBL campus, and the air show was near Duxford. It was many years ago, like ten or so. The day after, I remember I saved some hours to see the air museum there, which is amazing. As a foreigner, I didn't even know of its existence, but after that sudden display over my head...

[@crownvap6340]

Duxford :-) I'm sure one of the bombers was a B-17 called "Sally-B".

[@antoniohagopian213]

100% interception, they stopped all the missiles with their foreheads.

[@stocks-t8y]

😂 Israel received the first dose of long needed over due chemotherapy.

[@gottfriedheumesser1994]

That's the Russian method: They try to place the target into the trajectory to damage the missile. This method has nearly 100% success.

[@antoniohagopian213]

@@gottfriedheumesser1994 cope

[@User-jr7vf]

Their small hats shielded them from all the missiles.

[@wallingnaga6563]

@@gottfriedheumesser1994 you mean Ukraine?

[@davids1inwestholl45]

Excellent video! It adds a lot of context...Thank you! The April raid was telegraphed by Iran via back channels to the US, one assumes, to prevent a larger, full-scale war, and secondly, Iran needed to respond to Israel's direct assaults on their proxy agents (Hamas & Hezbollah). The US knew when it would start, and from where, how it would start, and generally what would be used. Even various news outlets knew when the missiles were launched, from where, and how long they'd take to arrive. As w/ other sources reporting, many (Scuds) were "duds" (pun intended, of course!) The final detail announced was that many drones would be arriving in a few hours due to their inherently slower speeds. This last attack was exponentially more powerful, not telegraphed, no upfront diplomatic overtures, no pulling punches. It was as much a display for Iran to save face, as it was to hurt Israel, to warn them, and to show them what things could be like if it spiraled into all-out war. Iran says they have worse options available. And on a side note, the US knew the basics of what was going down b/c so many missiles required liquid fueling, which can easily be observed by US assets. As w/ the other launches, there were reports that Iran also had several duds left standing in the sand. These reports raise serious questions of the reliability of Iranian's stockpile of thousands of missiles sequestered deep under fortified mountains. There have been additional reliability problems reported from Russia that up to half of their Iranian supplied missiles did not make it off the launchpad, and of those that did, many never made it to the targets in Ukraine.

[@Joe-jv5mm]

As Always Brilliant Analysis on the Subject matter

[@damianvisser977]

Thank you! I'v been hoping to find such an analyis. Not surprised it was your's.

[@bastadimasta]

Exoatmospheric interception is much harder than two guys trying to hit each other bullets manually.

[@agricolaurbanus6209]

No. Much easier.

[@YawnGod]

@@agricolaurbanus6209 Beep boop electronic magic! EZ PZ!

[@bastadimasta]

@@agricolaurbanus6209 it must be easy for a genius like you

[@brasidas2011]

​@@agricolaurbanus6209I tend to agree. Most evasive actions do not occur until the war head is past the apex.

[@highondankium3626]

depends on the distance between 2 guys.... but considering 2 guys are 500m apart and using pistols, the exoatmospheric interception will be easier

[@laurisuoranta5512]

Excellent commentary, I arrived at similar conclusions based on footage. There were many ground explosions shown on videos taken in vicinity of Nevatim. I haven't seen any witness testimony that jets there would have been airborne: but I did hear commentary that key Israeli airbases have hardened underground plane shelters. Given the advance warning that the Israeli officials may have received before its public circulation, it's perfectly feasible that jets at Nevatim were secured and ABM systems directed to intercept missiles targeting other locations.

[@johno1544]

Very interesting seeing a actual photo of the strikes on one of the airbase

[@1989jcwilliams]

Mossad flying that hurricane 😂

[@atomf9143]

So what I gather from this is that Arrows 2 and 3 attritted the attack first, and that David’s Sling didn’t perform as well against the ones that got through the upper layers.

[@markcarli8259]

Thank you. Very informative

[@OhAwe]

Appreciate the breakdown, cheers.

[@BacchusZA]

The old saying is that in the contest between warhead and armour (or IADS in this case), warhead always wins. It might take a while, but it's impossible to stop everything getting through. The Israelis are just as capable of realising as anyone that the Iranians could shoot a bunch of older, less capable stuff at them to deplete ADS ammo stockpiles before sending in the more capable systems, and maybe they held back a bit against future attacks. But the Israelis have also shown that they can be extremely competent the vast majority of the time, and then fall victim to hubris, carelessness, overconfidence, or *something*, just when it'll hurt them very badly

[@snizami]

Which is why Israel is once again haphazardly heading down a hyper militaristic path with no clear and viable end-game in mind. It's just not sustainable and why I think this is the case of a "defensive" set of systems, aid, and alliances actually serving in 'offensive' capacity since it gives Israel diminished motivation to seek non-militaristic solutions or to stop the occupation, annexation, blockades that are the root of these tensions. In fact, I don't really look forward to the development and maturity of DEWs since they'll only perpetuate this faux sense of security upon which Israel can continue to lash out across the region. It just hasn't been working for decades and decades. The artificially propped up power imbalance necessitates continued conflict.

[@johnzach2057]

From the videos that are emerging I think that Iran is using a lot of exoatmospheric decoys. They are pretty easy, just some flare that also reflects Radio Waves.

[@kermittoad]

Anti ballistic missiles since forever have been designed to discriminate warheads and decoys the same way decoys have been improved to defeat those capabilities, it's a constant race to defeat each others capability.

[@johnzach2057]

​@@kermittoad Not only that. The warhead itself is made so it looks like a decoy. One of the best ideas might have been encasing the warhead with mylar balloons with a heating element inside. And the decoys where ... mylar balloons with heating elements inside.

[@ImBigFloppa]

@@johnzach2057 Mylar balloons are still balloons. Even if they didn't instantly pop from traveling at mach 8, they would still be a balloon and near instantaneously stop. Now I don't know what the crew training is, but I suspect that they would be smart enough to decipher that the object traveling at a few meters per second is not a ballistic missile.

[@nagjrcjasonbower]

Nice interpretation of your available data. This is why I really like your channel. No BS. Just available facts! The number of exoatmospheric intercepts in actual combat have to be a historical record of some kind!

[@hu5116]

The difference between the prior attack and this one is that the prior one was mostly UAVs, while this one was I think all ballistic missiles. USA probably did not have many defensive engagement opportunities due the the high apogee and our locations, putting the whole burden on the Israeli defenses.

[@tonbopro]

April majority UAV

[@Stratigoz]

Not even 5% interception rate. Total failure of the air defence.

[@Gustav_Kuriga]

I would point out that runways themselves are important targets, so just because nothing is there doesn't mean it's missed the target.

[@ObieOnce]

Unless dropping mines runway craters are fixed in hours if not minutes.

[@lavenderlilacproductions]

I wonder if the drop in effectiveness was a lack of interceptors. There's only so much in the magazine, and flying drain pipes are easier to build quickly compared to exoatmospheric interceptors

[@Aussie-nd7si]

Flying drainpipes don't travel 4500 km plus in 10 minutes

[@guaposneeze]

The fanciest interceptors are very expensive and have very low production rate. Exact details of military stocks are always estimated and not publicly disclosed but It's basically 100% likely that interceptor magazines didn't get fully restocked from the previous wave. That said, Iran's ballistic missile stockpiles are also not infinite, so it remains to be seen how much strategic value Iran is really getting for their expenditures even if some are getting through.

[@AWZool]

The successful interceptions in april were inflated by the high number of slow flying drones used to saturate the iron dome. They sent out like a few hundred cheap propeller drones in advance so AD have something to shoot at, and that's when the "few hits" that got in went through with the real payload: cruise missiles hitting symbolic targets (an air base, an intelligence center and something something that were used in the embassy strike before). This time it was mostly ballistic missiles, which is an entirely different animal.

[@Jack-xe2xe]

@@guaposneeze now iran alrdy doing nuclear testing, bet they will put it on the best chomp after seeing the data about the best US intercept perform

[@Elyron2004]

​@Aussie-nd7 they do

[@fakhrealam2008]

Very good analysis.

[@abdusalamolamide]

The fact that the success rate was significatly high is making the Israelis think twice before responding with a counter strike.

[@tjallingdalheuvel126]

These people do not think straight. They seem fatalistic or have a big monkey up their sleeve. But normal rational and empathic hearts, with His laws written in there, if, then it must be hidden very well under those demons roaming. 😔

[@archangel7052]

Exactly...They thought they could stop a barrage of missiles and are being naive about it but social media footage disagrees.

[@92HazelMocha]

I mean they intentionally bombed a Russian base in Syria this week, I don't think they care about the consequences of their actions.

[@archangel7052]

@@leonleeoff2216 Atleast they didn't target civilians and the air base was hit multiple times visible from satelite imagery. Remember Iran has thousands of these and they could obliterate Israel.

[@bieber_and_dolik]

Israel gone crazy.

[@foshizzlfizzl]

I'd love to see your reaction on the S-70 Ohotnik incident. There are interesting reactions, who say they lost control, may be due to jamming or technical issues and had to bring it down, before it reaches Ukrainian air space. So.. It's basically already deployed to Ukraine and is already operational and we can call it Su-70? 😊 And was it a Su-57 which had to bring it down because they suppose to work together.

[@kermittoad]

Unfortunately for Russians it fell down in Ukrainian controlled area, i doubt there'll be much remaining for them to learn something.

[@foshizzlfizzl]

@@kermittoad it didn't fall on Ukrainian territory.

[@kermittoad]

@@foshizzlfizzl bro there's geolocations and Ukrainian soldiers with blue tape etc..standing on the wreckage, what do you mean it didn't land in Ukrainian controlled area lmao

[@foshizzlfizzl]

@@kermittoad What I mean is that it didn't just fell.. It burned out.. Only wings are left.. So what do they want to find out? 🤣 There is a docu about it on Russian television.. This drone is already in production so it's not really secret anymore.

[@kermittoad]

@@foshizzlfizzl okay there's an entire part of right fuselage intact from pictures on the ground, it broke into two after getting hit, just because your equipment is in production doesn't mean it's not a secret, where did you even get that logic.

[@ivensbass1592]

You have to take into account that Israel does not have an infinity number of interceptors. They might had had to choose which areas to protect.

[@martinabowm1786]

I catch myself listening more and more to your videos right through to the end! I normally prefer "shorts" or stop watching in the middle of a video ( my family has told me that I have an attention span of a tea-spoon😊). This tells me that the quality of your content and your presentation really works very well! Excellent job! But: these rockets are bloody scary! I do wonder how Iran was able to build such an amount of rockets with all them sanctions!?

[@ingemarhjalt8328]

Very interesting analysis. Thanks.

[@UNIVLOCATEFUN]

Much preferred the outdoor when you give your information, at least a bit of variation is good.

[@nohandler1493]

Iran is the example of take one project and do it very well instead of trying too many things at once. I have never seen anyone doing kar pet boo wombing using bail stick me sail. No one ever seen that was coming

[@parsi2292]

Now that's how you weave a carpet 😂

[@billcarpenter5271]

Thank you! Excellent analysis.

[@philipdavis7521]

Thanks, I was waiting for your analysis. There is so much uninformed nonsense on the internet now discussing this. There is little doubt that a lot of missiles got through, and it seems they did real damage, if not as much as the Iranians claim. What is clear is that the missile defences didn’t do a very good job.

[@gilbertponder5307]

I appreciate having a source such as yourself who can go deeper than the press releases and synthesize the available data into something a bit more meaningful. I will say that, from the moment I watched the raw videos of the attack, it seemed pretty evident to me that more missiles were reaching the ground untouched and detonating than was implied by the news reporting. Also, regarding the contrast between this and the April attack, many of the launches (most?) in April were cruise missiles and "drones," so presumably much easier to intercept.

[@leoma95]

Excellent analysis, as usual. But one point missed. I think we just witnessed the first exoatmospheric intenceptions of ballistic missiles in actual combat in history. And the fact that there are many is incredibly impressive. The US, even in testing has never achieved even a 50% success rate. And I'm pretty sure all the 12 SM-3s failed to intercept anything. Israel has some impressive capabilities. Question is, how many interceptors they can afford to spend. I'm sure, they were very selective in firing ARROW 3s, and letting most of the targets just go.

[@jcak552]

And where do you get this information on the SM3s?

[@leoma95]

@@jcak552The US said it launched “a dozen” SM-3 interceptors, but claimed no interceptions. If they had a non-zero intercept count they would have reported “some” intercepts.

[@leoma95]

By the way, 6 is typically the maximum SM-3 load out in an A.B. Destroyer.

[@dabo5078]

@@leoma95 Also the US has the capacity to produce around a dozen per year. So they basically fired their entire year worth of stock.

[@babarmm7788]

you really know unlike other channels other channels just give you information that news gives us

[@Jordan-dt6qx]

The first Iranian strike contained a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles. The cruise missiles were launched hours in advance of the Ballistics missiles, so they'd all arrive on target at once. The US was shooting down the missiles long before they reached Israeli airspace. You could predict within a few minutes, the moment Iran would launch the ballistic missiles to sync up with slow Shahed style cruise missiles. Perhaps the interception rate you quoted from the first event included slow, low flying cruise missiles? 72% interception rate on ballistic missiles does not seem like a mission failure. I really doubt the designers of any anti air system really expects 99% interception rate on anything, let alone ballistic missiles.

[@-BuddyGuy]

In an aircraft carrier group I think it's safe to say they're looking for 100% and the air defense is configured for missile swarms

[@Jordan-dt6qx]

@@-BuddyGuy that’s true. Interception of a ballistic missile threat is a good bit harder when protecting a large area, when compared to point defense.

[@octagonPerfectionist]

the iron dome has an incredibly high interception rate. but it wasn’t designed to use against missiles like this. but a high success rate doesn’t necessarily mean they have enough missiles or can launch them fast enough to intercept a saturation strike.

[@N4CR]

@@-BuddyGuy US said they shot ~20 RIMs from 2 destroyers. I'd say the rest of their loadout is short range and cruise missiles...

[@N4CR]

@@Jordan-dt6qx they aren't just ballistic, many were mid-course maneuvering hypersonic, you aren't really going to intercept them with existing tech, Ukraine can't and neither can their buddy Israel.

[@TheJazzten]

Great work! 🫡

[@stevesmith7839]

Actually, the weaknesses of reactive air defenses are still not nearly fully exploited. Any thought on the matter would tell an attacker to fire a barrage of missiles containing decoys, counter measures, and distractions. They would be fire works that create many lingering heat signature, missiles filled with foil ribbons and aluminum powder to obscure radar, and dummy missiles aimed at non targets to mislead attention. Follow it with the real attack of missiles with a triangle profile and radar absorbing paint. How about armored missiles? Sure they will have shorter range or carry less explosives, but whats the difference between 750 kg and 500 kg, or 1,700 km and 1,000 km? An unstoppable missile is an unstoppable missile. The message that everyone should glean is that no one is safe. Safety is an illusion that no one can afford. No one is free to act with impunity. Diplomacy and peace must always be the first and last option.

[@andreahighsides7756]

Some of the Iran bissels used in the previous strike contained multiple re-entry vehicles with only one active and the rest decoys.

[@atomf9143]

@andreahighsides7756 Is there a source on claims that Iran used MIRVs? Because that’s a hell of a claim if true.

[@Youtubeuser1aa]

What is a armored missile?

[@andreahighsides7756]

@@atomf9143 perhaps mirv is not the correct term, and I am speaking about last time. There were multiple projectiles per unit, with only one active and the rest decoys. The active one was able to maneuver right before reaching its destination. I don’t remember if these were cruise or ballistic

[@ic7481]

Radar absorbing paint only works well in the higher 10s of GHz ranges. IR signature would be probably impossible to hide also, so the interceptors should still detect using longer wavelength radar and IR. Also, when you have interceptors spraying incredibly high speed material, no feasible armour will likely work. Israel is in a difficult situation here, and it poses problems for future security. One thing is quite clear, even though I like to remain more neutral, Iran cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, but how can they be prevented? If Israel had shown mercy in Gaza, especially for civilians, they perhaps could have obtained a defence security pact with Europe/the US, that had an ultimatum against Iran.

[@ELMS]

That was excellent and provided insight available nowhere else. The Iranian attack reminds me of “Bomber” Harris when he said “The bomber will always get through.”

[@ernestoherreralegorreta137]

You are a smart, keenly observant, and extensively learned individual...and you know pretty well that what happened on Oct 1st was extremely relevant in military terms. And you probably know also that Iran gave Russia and the USA about 1-hour advance notice of the attack...which nobody in their right mind would've done if their intention was to cause maximal damage. The lesson that day was that the hypersonic Fatta missiles were able to slice through the "iron dome" like a knife through butter. Every single one of them (around 10 or so?), for neither you nor them under the dome have any way to intercept such highly hypersonic maneuvering weapons. They were not expecting this at all, and that is the sole reason why they haven't yet mounted a counter attack (which they will, I know, but now they know it's going to be exponentially more difficult to be successful and remain safe while doing so. Furthermore, Finland, Lithuana, Estonia, Poland, Rumania, and Germany now know what is going to happen to their military bases 15 minutes after they decide to preemptively attack the Russian Federation (+Belarus and Novarossiya)., for if the Fattas made it through the infamous dome, the russians have a gamut of hypersonic washing machines that in all likelihood are significantly more effective.

[@dunravin]

Shuttleworth? Not been there since I was a child, used to love seeing all the old biplanes, fantastic.

[@roberttauzer7042]

I think your 70% estimate of successful intercepts truly is a "best case scenario" If 1 base got 30-ish hits, probably most of them got 20+ Mossad building has supposedly been hit as well. That's over 100 hits of 181. There is a good chance most of them passed thru, and the ratio will be even higher if the attack would be more massive.

[@bieber_and_dolik]

True

[@ObieOnce]

Iran likely used near all of its MRBM launchers for this, it's unlikely they can launch significantly larger numbers simultaneously due to the bottleneck of launchers.

[@PaulMLauer]

You are so nailed down in your wishful thinking...thanks God, you will never know what you have missed.

[@cannonfodder4376]

Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads can certainly inconvenience an air base. But one will need far more in order to knowck it out for more than an hour or two. A good analysis.

[@lorenzovercesi1750]

Well done. Thank you

[@batner]

There are two videos showing headless iranian missiles, one in jericho killing a guy, the other is from jordan where some local tribesmen play with it. Both are headless. It is either some kind of stage separation of the warhead to avoid interception or it was blown off and the engine part with fuel tanks tumbled down after interception.

[@musehtaicho]

It is stage separation - after booster is empty it is just dead weight.

[@artistphilb]

I heard that Iran claims to have only launched about just over half the number of missiles claimed by news sources, have no way of knowing which version of events is true, but if that is the case, then the air defence interception rate would be lower.

[@tiagostein4057]

Usually on every claim in conflicts, be missiles or human losses. The real number is slose to the average between the numbers claimed by both sides

[@AdilAchahbar-g9i]

Israel thinks it intercepted a missile, but it actually intercepted the missile engine from which the warhead separated and entered the final stage of self-guidance. That's why Israel says that Iran launched 2 times the number of missiles that Iran launched.

[@tiagostein4057]

@@AdilAchahbar-g9i But those are separated at the end of the CLIMB stage. They are not separated in the descent stage and they are fairly easy to identify because of that (the simple deviation from the separator is enough to make them tumble)... so woudl be very hard to confuse more than a handful of those with reentry vehicles.

[@AdilAchahbar-g9i]

@@tiagostein4057 That's what I thought too until Israel showed Iranian first-stage rocket engines falling in Israel with damage from interceptor missiles and no warhead attached to them.

[@Deno2100]

​@AdilAchahbar-g9i Is it possible that Iranian missiles have some sort of break-off capability where when they're hard intercepted the Warhead breaks off in the hopes that it will land on something? If I were designing these things I would have models that I would Mix in with regular Warheads. When it was intercepted it would just rain down uranium ball bearings. Maybe the size of a BB. Some would probably even be designed to float in the Wind like a seedling. Small enough that they're hard to detect and with scatter over a large distances causing evacuations displacement and massive economic investment to clean up. That way you are damned if you intercept but your damned if you don't.

[@GeneralRazor-j8j]

Beautiful sights..

[@V12F1Demon]

People keep forgetting these are Persians not Arabs. It's a whole other, older, proud civilization.

[@IAC83]

💯

[@memesfarsi3111]

Only 50 to 64% Iranians are Persians TURKS KURDS ARABS BALOCH and OTHER ethnicities living in Iran too

[@ahmadmubashar4323]

I was waiting intensively for your video for an unbiased analysis since the Iran attack.

[@kentstructures4388]

Nobody on social media has shown the Mossad HQ bldg..

[@kermittoad]

There's new satellite images from osint accounts on twitter, mossad hq is untouched and a missile fell about 500m on a road, maybe the one's aimed for the hq was shot down with priority.

[@babd3121]

Twitter has.

[@amardeep5821]

​@@babd3121 will it be possible to share the link?

[@tanerkaplankiran]

which probably means its been hit

[@azleenabubakar689]

See Hindustan Times.. The building struck by Iraqis drone.

[@robertsneddon731]

The US Navy carried out a successful exoatmospheric intercept over a decade ago, using an SM-3 launched from USS Lake Erie, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser to shoot down a US satellite, USA-193 at an altitude of about 250km. USA-193 is thought to have been a NRO test vehicle with a lot of secret equipment on board and loss of ground control meant it would enter the atmosphere uncontrollably. Much of the equipment on board might have survived re-entry and landed anywhere. The reason given by the US for the interception was that the hydrazine fuel on board the satellite was dangerous, not something that other countries such as China and Russia agreed with.

[@frankunderbush]

That was my original thought when seeing the videos: unlike April, so many hits were landing and it was a clear sign that the IAD is not as effective vs a better set of weapons.

[@SecretAgentBartFargo]

Not necessarily. Arrow doesn't fire upon every single missile. It uses sophisticated target discrimination based on the threat to the impact area to determine which ones to fire upon.

[@joeo2533]

​@@SecretAgentBartFargothat argument only works if we assume Iran was targeting civilian targets and all those were intercepted which is clearly not the case.

[@ObieOnce]

​@@joeo2533no, it's all about algorithmic prioritization. None of us know their targeting algorithms but they clearly do not want to waste interceptors. The vast bulk of those "hits" were on sand.

[@joeo2533]

@@ObieOnce satellite images of one of the airbases hit are on the internet. If by sand, you mean where they were built then yes.

[@ObieOnce]

@@joeo2533 try reading again, "vast bulk hit sand", I never said zero hits.

[@nonsequitor]

Great work as usual... Thanks 🙏. Re: Filming location: For non Brits who like classic aviation and might visit one day, the Shuttleworth Collection is well worth a visit 🙌 And it is true too that you get good stuff flying around in the South East UK / North West of London quite regularly 😁 Lysander flew past me yesterday and today for lolz 🙌🙏😁

[@kpakaify]

Paper dome

[@richardscathouse]

Tofu Dome

[@worldwanderer91]

Cope Dome

[@malithaw]

Cope dome x2

[@GodzHammer]

Excellent analysis and thinking thank you!! 🙏 😊

[@bjorntorlarsson]

The only reason why I watch this channel, is because I want to know what the vacuum cleaner thinks about it.

[@Millennium7HistoryTech]

I will ask OTIS😄

[@jakedee4117]

@@Millennium7HistoryTech Well Otis is a clever little robot and i am sure he will also refrain from making any statements about foolish human politics.

[@calexico66]

There are other aspects, the number of ready launchers of interceptors per salvo. Even if the defender has enough interceptors compared to the total of attacking ballistic objects it cannot reload the launchers quickly enough to deal with new incoming threats. The second aspect is trajectory estimation and threat assessment, some of the ballistic objects might not be targeted if their trajectory doesn't cover any critical target. The only issue is that can only be determined when the reentry vehicle is rather close for comfort.

[@Malik-ur2si]

Israeli AD had about 5% success rate. According to Iran, 108 missiles were fired and the vast majority of them hit their targets. They also pulled back their punches, They gave a 12 hours notice to the USA who then relayed it to Israel, also the fact that there were no casualties from the strikes them selves shows incredible exercise of restraint. Secondly Iranian missiles are accurate when they want to hit specific targets, they do hit accurately, we know that when they struck targets in Iraq and in Saudi. Also even in the video we see only 1 out of 20 missile being intercepted, meaning only 5% success rate.

[@borghorsa1902]

Ukraine success rate against missive Russian missile strikes are 70 to 95 percent.

[@prossi4216]

Targets in Iraq and Saudi Arabia were hit with cruise missiles, not with ballistic missiles. However, if 32 out of 108 just hit a single airbase, then I agree that most missiles were not intercepted. Maybe 50%.

[@HaniFOunsi]

Awesome analysis 👍 Thank you for taking the time

[@testimonium6596]

Armageddon is standing on Mankind's doorstep. Let's hope that it will not ring the bell. Thank you, Mister Millennium 7, your videos are always interesting. God bless.

[@dl6519]

Excellent analysis. A relatively low-tech saturation attack largely penetrated what is probably the most advanced integrated ballistic missile defense system on the planet... which is not surprising, given that intercepting ballistic missiles is orders of magnitude more difficult than launching them in the first place.

[@jerkojuric6137]

I am wondering how could someone differentiate video of exoatmospheric interception from MARV separation and its engine start? There is only a few recorded videos of both scenario and to me in this instance it can be either case. In the videos only confirmed interception can be seen in the terminal phase of MARVs and interception rate is 5-7% at most.

[@raph151515]

there is a video from Jordan where most of missiles get impacted by interceptors, look it up

[@jerkojuric6137]

@@raph151515 As I have said above - how to differentiate interception from MARV warhead separation from first stage of rocket? I saw the the video of THAAD exoatmospheric interception and this is not it... this trail of light is too symmetric for interceptor hit.

[@chrislong3938]

It's awesome when a video can be interrupted by a WWII Hurricane!!!

[@tonbopro]

other sources quote 4-500

[@AgnieszkaNishka]

Thank you. Awesome content.

[@christophmahler]

The problem is _mathematical_ . *It takes more sophisticated interceptors to produce in order to defend against moderately sophisticated stand-off weapons (equipped with moderate precision guidance and decoys)* - and in general, *no target - on land or sea - can be effectively defended against concentrated saturation attacks* without completely exposing all other strategic or operational assets. It is the same issue as with the _strategic_ Joint Strike Fighter procurement - which tactical potential appears impressive in small scale and regional conflicts, but is economically impossible to scale up unto the operational level of attrition of large scale warfare - when there are simply not enough squadrons and airplanes to sustain effective air campaigns. And we knew that since Yom Kippur - when Israeli F-4 Phantoms were lost in the dozens to inferior, but comparatively disposable MiG-21s (built exactly to such a 'good enough' specification, instead of trying to leap ahead with an advanced MiG-31 or Su-27 design as the US did with the F-X program for the F-15). That is why Frunze had demanded that the civil consumer good industry and the military industry must be coordinated toward dual-use technologies and standards - that any future war in Europe is to be understood as a war of attrition where production capacity and manpower endurance will decide over idealized high-end weapon designs that are too costly to produce and maintain in numbers during peacetime and too complex to manufacture in war. It is a matter of cultural history and political culture. With the current mindset of 'Aryan' entitlement in the Transatlantic West - it's Modernization Theory - the US would have lost in the Normandy to Hitler Youth with Panzerfausts - or the Soviets reaching Paris - having deemed the M4 Sherman tank as too inferior to produce and deploy while waiting for a small number of M26 Pershing tanks... Sanctioned Iran has a domestic automotive industry - they understand mass production and the relative operational value of mass in manpower (First Gulf War) and stand-off weapons that fulfill the same role as sophisticated strike craft and armored maneuver warfare - with Russian and Chinese satellite and signal intelligence (in addition to their own disposable drones), they possess a capable 'Reconnaissance Strike Complex' that can cripple Israel's air power and power grid on the ground. Just as in Syria, the US would have to send 500.000 troops in order to decide the proxy conflict in their favor - but doing so, risking the loss of other theaters (Black Sea, Chinese transfer of shipping to rail)...

[@anchorread68]

one example is ATGM vs drone jerry-rigged with RPG warhead. The latter is prolific in battlefield and terrifying.

[@christophmahler]

@@leonleeoff2216 'ruzzia' Listed.

[@CanVeyn]

Nice analysis 👍🏼

[@MarkVrem]

Davids sling launcher looks like the reditions you see online of The Second Temple. Kind of cute lol.

[@tjallingdalheuvel126]

Wasn't that temple Persian architecture?

[@dkokalanov]

Good analysis. Only point which seems to me is the effectiveness assessment. Having in mind that some of those rockets may have carried multiple reentry vehicles in their heads, the amount of hits doesn't represent a clear percentage of the launched rockets.

[@SecretAgentBartFargo]

Arrow doesn't intercept every single ballistic missile. It discriminates missiles based on the threat they pose to the calculated impact area. That's why some were allowed to pass through unintercepted.

[@DaleChipplethunk]

Lol

[@harisnuman3538]

It is hard to calculate the impact of a manouvering missiles

[@parsi2292]

You know why that's bs? because these missiles change direction to the last fraction of the second and there is no way of your so called "calculation" what you say suits mortars and classic arsenal rockets,katusha or smthin

[@dexlab7539]

Great video - Importantly, the US only manufacturer a dozen or so SM3 per Year!

[@antoniohagopian213]

10:50 the image is from April, this time there is infinitely more damage.

[@elendal]

I'm looking forward to first confirmed use of laser for interception.

[@dexlab7539]

You’ll likely be waiting a long time

[@braddbradd5671]

Yeah i saw that it looked like 80% rockets got thru i think no one said anything was because the explosions were weak

[@wulf3n773]

"Weak" lmao. Such cope.

[@johno1544]

750 kilo warheads weak? Compared to what nukes?

[@kailiciousthumbsup]

Weak like youre mom snatch its just that isreal doesnt want to show the damage lol

[@braddbradd5671]

@@johno1544 No compared to the IDF these rockets are old rubish

[@johno1544]

@@braddbradd5671 lol what are you talking about you think the IDF has some type of special high explosives? 750 kilos of HE has the same power from the IDF or Iran

[@docsnider8926]

Thank you for your excellent work!

[@Emmo-r8o]

F35 got smashed 🎉

[@kkavehma1]

Thanks for great video as usual. The difference between April attack and this time was that Iran used its top Arsenal for recent attack. The Fattah-1 or 2 (the hypersonic one) seems to be the majority of the missiles they sent this time around. I suspect they cannot continue producing them in large numbers. Also, in April Iran mainly sent drones which was easily shut down, I recall they sent less than 50 ballistic missiles back then and very few were among the advanced ones. Still I think they cannot sustain producing and sending their best missiles which are pretty inaccurate in large numbers in futures. I think clear win for IDF. AND 75% interception of hypersonic ballistic missiles is pretty amazing!

[@posmoo9790]

It looks to me that they used only Shebab-3s and their derivatives. That is all liquid fueled one stage missiles with a warhead that separates from the body in flight and the missile follows into as it enters the thicker part of the atmosphere breaking up at that point with the debris landing relatively close to the target itself (within dozens of miles). I have seen two separate pictures of the fuel tanks coming down in Israel. One on a highway, and one that landed on the poor man that was attempting to cross the street. I have a video I found of two Emad being launched on (it's of course just a derivative of the Shebab-3) that night but I suspect the vast majority of were standard Shebab-3 and that seems to be what the Houthi are using. I have seen no evidence produced that they used any of their more modern solid fuel IRBMs. But it doesn't really matter that much. We've always known the claims of air defense interceptors have an incredibly difficult job and the claims of the industry as to the effectiveness of their interceptors is practically impossible to be as claimed (I routinely see 80% poh claims on ballistic missiles from everything from pac-3 to rim-161 to arrow-3 these claims are in no way credible). My only question about your reporting, Millenium 7, is you claim that these all 'very capable interceptors' but we actually have no evidence of that. I assume that the Arrow-3 is something you could call good compared to the others but not 'capable' just because it along with the rim-161 obtains extremely high velocity and that matters more than anything else. We have I think we have evidence for exactly 3 interceptions of a ballistic missile warhead 2 this last week and one in an earlier attack. I would suggest it is almost impossible to create an actually "very capable interceptor" with today's technology or probably any technology ever. this is so far beyond hitting a bullet hitting a bullet it boggles the mind. to me it looks like even with $20m a piece arrow-3 missiles the most important Israel air base was saturated with 1960s rocket and warhead technology.

[@richardscathouse]

They make cheap decoys as well. 😊

[@silentone11111111]

Great vid. Nice to have a non propaganda channel out there ❤