Expected Value (EV) of Arthurian Legends - Sorcery Contested Realm

[@SquireLep]

Thanks Shibbie!

[@wizardsden666]

Thanks for the shout out! Great tool!

[@shibbie711]

Hey, thanks so much!! And I think you’re getting close to upgrading to an Elite Mortal by now 😊

[@lholo]

Great video - appreciate the walk through of the tracker / tool you've made. A great resource and happy to support you on Patreon! Keep up the great work!

[@shibbie711]

Thank you!! 🙏🏼

[@Dstinct]

Great breakdown. I had build a similar spreadsheet in gsheets tracking stuff over the first 2 weeks and shared it around with people who wanted to see it. These prices make sense for card sellers and large box breakers. I came at it from a player's perspective trying to put together a playset. First box makes sense to include the ordinaries as you want a playset (which you can usually complete or get 99% of the way there in a box). After that you strip them out. I also didn't include any foils in the calculation of box value. My reasoning was that if you aren't cracking a ton of boxes, you aren't going to have a bunch of foils. Unique foils are extremely rare, so I wouldn't bank on getting one in your box. The average box get 1 elite, 2 exceptional and 3 ordinary foils. You may get lucky and be able to find someone in your local group to buy or sell with. Unless someone is putting a foil set together, players are going to be looking for NF cards for the most part, and blinging out their deck with specific cards across the various levels. I would peg less than 10 cards at each rarity are those cards. If you have those cards great. But if you only have a handful of foils, there is not enough critical mass for you to be worth dealing with online because it is easier to deal with someone that I can get a bunch of the foils I want all in one shot, even if I have to pay more for convenience. My calc was that as a player, you should not be buying more than 2 boxes, and thats only if you want a decent amount of ordinaries to fill out playsets. Great job again.

[@shibbie711]

Yep! Agree...Scenario 2 with no Unique foil is going to be what a lot of people experience unless they're opening up a whole case or more. And thanks for the comment here!

[@Conduit23]

This rules, thank you.

[@shibbie711]

Glad you find it helpful!! It’s been fun to build.

[@eegles]

This is great, could be even better if the EV were reduced by x% representing the fees selling platforms charge.

[@seanscollection]

I've seen people say unique foils are one in every other box like Alpha and Beta. However, my experience matches the 0.35 rate above since i pulled 7 out of 20 boxes. A bit disappointed that they have made unique foils more difficult to pull especially since there are still 55 of then excluding elite rarity uniques.

[@shibbie711]

Unique foils are insanely hard to hit....I did get lucky in my final box and hit 2 unique foils in one box...was pretty pumped about that because it's definitely not typical.